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COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal & Cotton

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (3,616 contracts) with Coffee (450 contracts) and Live Cattle (408 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-29,061 contracts), Soybean Meal (-28,762 contracts), Cotton (-19,649 contracts), Corn (-14,345 contracts), Soybeans (-9,218 contracts), Wheat (-7,510 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,000 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,668 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (96 percent) and Coffee (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (79 percent), Live Cattle (71 percent) and Corn (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (21 percent), Soybeans (26 percent) and the Sugar (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (54.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (56.5 percent)
Sugar (26.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (25.4 percent)
Coffee (93.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.6 percent)
Soybeans (26.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (28.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (94.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (32.5 percent)
Live Cattle (70.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (70.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (96.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (10.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (47.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (49.0 percent)
Wheat (40.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (46.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (35 percent) and Live Cattle (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (16 percent), Coffee (6 percent) and Soybean Oil (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-26 percent), Cotton (-13 percent) and Sugar (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (16.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.5 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.6 percent)
Coffee (6.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (-8.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-47.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-37.5 percent)
Live Cattle (22.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (50.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.9 percent)
Cocoa (-3.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.1 percent)
Wheat (-25.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 163,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.3	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	54.1	10.8
– Net Position:	163,301	-113,151	-50,150
– Gross Longs:	418,990	787,938	129,840
– Gross Shorts:	255,689	901,089	179,990
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	47.5	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-17.7	8.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	50.6	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	62.1	5.5
– Net Position:	71,738	-101,154	29,416
– Gross Longs:	220,130	445,189	77,757
– Gross Shorts:	148,392	546,343	48,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	67.4	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	11.1	-9.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	36.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	72.7	2.8
– Net Position:	68,918	-73,015	4,097
– Gross Longs:	79,031	71,892	9,610
– Gross Shorts:	10,113	144,907	5,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.0	5.6	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.6	8.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -86,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,113 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	58.1	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	46.0	7.8
– Net Position:	-86,331	109,077	-22,746
– Gross Longs:	168,134	524,558	48,087
– Gross Shorts:	254,465	415,481	70,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	75.7	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.2	26.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	49.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	63.4	4.2
– Net Position:	68,164	-81,071	12,907
– Gross Longs:	161,005	285,534	37,163
– Gross Shorts:	92,841	366,605	24,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	22.9	64.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-9.4	43.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -28,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	46.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	47.6	5.5
– Net Position:	-16,256	-9,392	25,648
– Gross Longs:	145,560	286,611	59,727
– Gross Shorts:	161,816	296,003	34,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	74.0	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.6	46.9	-10.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 85,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.1	33.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	51.3	13.7
– Net Position:	85,187	-63,090	-22,097
– Gross Longs:	152,864	114,603	25,343
– Gross Shorts:	67,677	177,693	47,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	45.3	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-21.0	-12.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	29.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	47.9	9.0
– Net Position:	71,982	-62,301	-9,681
– Gross Longs:	157,401	102,204	21,302
– Gross Shorts:	85,419	164,505	30,983
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	5.4	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-33.5	-19.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	50.5	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	37.6	5.5
– Net Position:	-31,135	30,832	303
– Gross Longs:	58,166	121,093	13,578
– Gross Shorts:	89,301	90,261	13,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.1	88.9	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	12.6	-5.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	37.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	71.2	4.0
– Net Position:	36,594	-43,784	7,190
– Gross Longs:	55,932	48,440	12,337
– Gross Shorts:	19,338	92,224	5,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	48.1	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	3.2	1.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -46,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	38.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	26.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-46,039	53,723	-7,684
– Gross Longs:	116,397	173,884	30,822
– Gross Shorts:	162,436	120,161	38,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	64.0	16.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	27.3	-7.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (9,910 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (3,423 contracts) also showing a gaining week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-5,401 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,249 contracts), the VIX (-4,386 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-547 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (88 percent) and the Russell-Mini (84 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (70 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (88.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (92.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (69.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (68.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (84.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (87.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (10 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-5.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (10.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (6.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-5.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (10.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (0.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-8.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-4.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	41.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	38.9	7.4
– Net Position:	-8,809	8,476	333
– Gross Longs:	78,339	146,068	26,481
– Gross Shorts:	87,148	137,592	26,148
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.4	15.2	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	3.4	7.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	68.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	77.0	6.4
– Net Position:	34,911	-182,867	147,956
– Gross Longs:	348,339	1,556,553	291,954
– Gross Shorts:	313,428	1,739,420	143,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	14.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-13.1	22.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	52.8	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.2	11.8
– Net Position:	8,265	-14,757	6,492
– Gross Longs:	19,992	44,691	16,466
– Gross Shorts:	11,727	59,448	9,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	16.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	1.6	31.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	57.6	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	69.3	9.8
– Net Position:	19,803	-32,162	12,359
– Gross Longs:	66,681	158,513	39,446
– Gross Shorts:	46,878	190,675	27,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	17.2	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-8.1	1.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	72.5	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	78.1	3.5
– Net Position:	3,145	-27,356	24,211
– Gross Longs:	77,154	354,411	41,366
– Gross Shorts:	74,009	381,767	17,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	7.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	-5.4	32.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	88.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	82.3	1.8
– Net Position:	-32,018	28,405	3,613
– Gross Longs:	36,620	390,910	11,462
– Gross Shorts:	68,638	362,505	7,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	65.6	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	6.4	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

22 Nov

Bitcoin price is approaching 100,000. Natural gas prices rise due to declining inventories and cold weather

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was up 1.06%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed positive 0.53%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.36%.

The Dollar Index remained above 107, holding near two-year highs, as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Data released on Thursday showed that weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low, further evidence of a strong labor market. Investors await business activity data today and inflation data next week for more economic information.

Alphabet (GOOG) fell more than 6% after antitrust regulators said in court Wednesday that Google must get rid of Chrome, citing that the browser “reinforced” the company’s dominant position. Salesforce (CRM) is up more than 4% and tops the leaderboard in the Dow Jones Industrials after Stifel raised its price target on the company’s shares to $390 from $350. PDD Holdings (PDD) is down more than 9% and tops the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reporting third-quarter revenue of ¥99.35 billion, weaker than the consensus estimate of ¥102.83 billion.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rose more than 2%, hitting a new record high above $99,000 on optimism that President-elect Trump’s support for digital assets will boost the industry as the US moves toward friendly regulation of digital assets. Trump’s team has begun discussing creating a position in the White House dedicated to digital asset policy.

Inflationary pressures intensified in Canada, with producer prices rising 1.2% month-on-month in October, the strongest increase since April. Earlier data showed consumer inflation exceeded estimates on key indicators, with the average core inflation rate rising to 2.6% in October from a three-year low of 2.4% in September.

Equity markets in Europe ended trading yesterday on a strong note. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.74%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.21% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.79%. The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for November unexpectedly fell by 1.2 to a 5-month low of 13.7, weaker than expectations for a rise to 12.4.

The US natural gas prices rose by 7% to 4.3 million barrels per ton, extending yesterday’s 6% gain to the highest level in a year, as estimates of colder weather boosted heating demand and accelerated expectations for the start of the storage withdrawal season. EIA data showed that gas inventories in storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet in the week ending November 15 instead of the 5 billion cubic feet expected. This was the first accelerated decline this season, as relatively low prices in the previous week forced producers to cut production.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.53% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.04%.

Malaysia’s annualized inflation rate for October 2024 was 1.9%, slightly above market estimates, and September’s 1.8%, the lowest in five months. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative costs, rose to 1.8% y/y, holding steady for the second month and remaining at the lowest level in six months.

Australian manufacturing activity continued to contract for the 10th consecutive month in November, although the rate of decline slowed to its lowest level in six months. At the same time, service sector activity moved into contraction for the first time in ten months.

Japan’s core Consumer Price Index, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose to an annualized rate of 2.3% in October 2024. However, the increase was slightly above the market projections of 2.2%. Despite this, Japan’s core inflation has remained at or above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than two years, which has contributed to the Central Bank’s more hawkish stance.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,948.71 +31.60 (+0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,870.35 +461.88 (+1.06%)

DAX (DE40) 19,146.17 +141.39 (+0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,149.27 +64.20 (+0.79%)

USD Index 106.99 +0.31 (+0.29%)

News feed for: 2024.11.22

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Japan National Core CPI at 01:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
German GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 14:40 (GMT+2);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Nov

USD/JPY Awaits Potential Stimulus Impact

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair remains stable at approximately 154.30 amid global economic fluctuations and expectations of potential Japanese stimulus measures.

Japan’s latest inflation data for October revealed a decline to 2.3%, marking the lowest level in nine months and potentially easing pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for immediate rate hikes. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has hinted at a possible rate increase in December due to the yen’s prolonged weakness.

Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted more than anticipated in November, while the service sector showed expansion, highlighting a mixed economic outlook.

Reports suggest the Japanese government may introduce a significant stimulus package worth 90 billion USD to mitigate the impact of inflation on households. While details remain undisclosed, the possibility of such measures has generated some optimism around the yen.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 Chart: the USD/JPY is forming a consolidation pattern around 154.45. A downward breakout could lead to further movement towards 153.00, while an upward breakout might pave the way to 156.20, potentially extending to 157.60. The MACD indicator supports this USD/JPY outlook, with its signal line positioned above zero but trending downwards, suggesting the pair is approaching a critical decision point.

H1 Chart: a consolidation around 154.45, potentially extending to 154.88, sets the stage for possible corrective movements towards 153.00. A subsequent recovery could push the pair to 156.20, marking a new growth phase. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, indicates overbought conditions, signalling a likely retraction to lower levels, aligning with the potential for a near-term correction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Nov

RBNZ may cut the rate by 0.75% next week. NVDA report did not meet investors’ expectations

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s end, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.32%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed at the opening price. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) declined 0.08%.

Nvidia (NVDA) reported fiscal third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates, but its plans for the current quarter fell short of investors’ inflated expectations amid hot demand for artificial intelligence. NVIDIA Corporation shares fell more than 2% in after-hours trading following the report. Qualcomm (QCOM) closed down more than 6%, leading to a decline in chip stocks after Susquehanna Financial cut its price target on the company’s shares to $210 from $230. Additionally, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Texas Instruments (TXN) were down more than 1%.

Of the 90% of S&P 500 companies that posted Q3 earnings, 75% beat estimates, slightly below the 3-year average. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies reported an average 8.5% year-over-year increase in Q3 quarterly earnings, more than double estimates.

Equity markets in Europe ended trading yesterday on a weak note. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.29%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.43%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.01%, the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.17%. Investors sold risk assets following reports that Ukraine fired UK-made Storm Shadow missiles at Russian territory for the first time since the war began in 2022. This followed the firing of US-made ATACMS missiles the same morning Russia expanded the scenario, justifying the use of nuclear weapons and raising fears of a wider conflict with possible NATO involvement. However, by the end of the day, geopolitical tensions in Europe had eased after Reuters reported that Russian President Putin was willing to discuss a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine with US President-elect Trump, which could roughly freeze the war on current front lines.

The US crude inventories rose by 545,000 barrels last week, exceeding market projections. Oil markets have come under pressure in recent months amid concerns about a possible oil glut next year due to slowing demand growth in China and record-high production levels, even as OPEC+ maintains current production levels.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices rose more than 6% to nearly $3.2/MMBtu, the highest since June 11, as colder weather in late November is expected to boost heating demand.

Asian markets were flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.16%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.21%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.57%.

On Thursday, the New Zealand Treasury said it is likely to revise its economic and fiscal estimates downward due to a prolonged slowdown in labor productivity growth. This has prompted investors to increasingly consider the possibility that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut its 4.75% cash rate by 75bps more aggressively at its meeting next week, with a 50bps cut already fully priced in.

China’s Central Bank left key lending rates unchanged this week as expected, but investors remain hopeful that Beijing will introduce additional stimulus measures to support economic growth. Meanwhile, the prospect of higher tariffs on Chinese goods under the upcoming Trump administration adds to concerns about the country’s economic outlook.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,917.11 +0.13 (+0.0022%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,408.47 +139.53 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 19,004.78 −55.53 (−0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,085.07 −13.95 (−0.17%)

USD Index 106.67 −0.47 (−0.44%)

News feed for: 2024.11.21

Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 07:10 (GMT+2);
Australia RBA Bullock Speech at 10:00 (GMT+2);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Nov

NZD/USD Under Pressure Amidst USD Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair is trading near 0.5879, experiencing volatility as the market awaits the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. Expectations are leaning towards a significant rate cut, with a 50-basis-point reduction considered the baseline scenario and a 25% probability of a more aggressive 75-basis-point cut.

Adding to the uncertainty are pessimistic projections from the New Zealand Treasury, suggesting potential delays in economic recovery, further weighing on sentiment around the NZD.

Internally, the US dollar’s strength, fuelled by mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in December, continues to exert substantial pressure on the NZD. Since the US election, the dollar has emerged as a dominant force, benefiting from robust domestic factors, and overshadowing other currencies that lack similar support, leading to their devaluation. As a result, the NZD, particularly vulnerable, reflects this broader depreciation trend against the USD.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart of NZD/USD, the market corrected to the 0.5921 level. Today, a decline wave structure is forming at the 0.5858 level, marking the boundaries of the consolidation range. A downward exit from this range could indicate the potential for the wave to extend towards 0.5777. Alternatively, an upward exit may result in another corrective move towards 0.5944 before the price resumes its decline to 0.5777. From a technical standpoint, this bearish outlook for NZD/USD is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and sloping downward.

On the H1 chart of NZD/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around 0.5875. Today, another decline wave towards 0.5777 is likely to develop. At this level, the wave is expected to exhaust its downside potential. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Nov

USDJPY bulls venture into intervention zone

By ForexTime

USDJPY less than 4% from multi-decade top

Yen worst performing G10 currency vs USD this week

Rallied over 10% from September 2024 low

Bloomberg medium forecast for intervention at 160.00

Bloomberg FX model: USDJPY has 72% of trading within 153.46 – 157.95 over 1-week period

Here’s something for USDJPY traders this week…

The Yen is the worst-performing G10 currency versus the dollar and is trading less than 4% away from its multi-decade high at 161.95!

yen weekly

After pushing above 156.00 for the first time since July, investors are on alert for possible currency intervention from Japanese authorities.

Looking at the charts, prices have rallied over 10% from its September 2024 low at 139.57 – securing 7 consecutive weeks of gains.

USDJPY

The yen’s recent weakness could be attributed to an improving market mood and uncertainty over the timing of Bank of Japan rate hikes.

Zooming out, it remains the worst-performing G10 currency against the dollar year-to-date, shedding nearly 10%.

YTDss

Taking a trip back memory lane…

The USDJPY witnessed significant price swings earlier this year after Japanese authorities intervened to support its currency.

Japan spent ¥9.8 trillion during interventions in late April and early May after the USDJPY touched 160.00.

Another ¥5.5 trillion was spent in early July after the Yen weakened to its lowest level since 1986 at 161.95.

According to a survey of 53 economists carried out by Bloomberg, the medium forecast of the Yen that could spark intervention was 160.

This is less than 3% away from the current price level at 155.70.

With all the above discussed, here are 3 things that could impact the USDJPY this week:

1) US data + Fed speeches

Key US economic data and speeches by numerous Fed officials could influence the dollar.

Investors will direct their attention towards the weekly initial jobless claims, November PMI’s to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches from various Fed officials may offer clues on the central bank’s next policy move.

A solid set of strong data and hawkish comments by Fed officials may cool Fed cut bets. If this strengthens the dollar, the USDJPY may push higher as a result.

If US economic data disappoints and Fed officials sound dovish, a weaker dollar may send the USDJPY lower.

2) Tokyo October consumer price index (CPI)

Here’s what economists expect:

CPI year-on-year (October 2024 vs. October 2023): 2.3% – down from 2.5%

CPI year-on-year (excluding fresh food): 2.2% – down from 2.4%

CPI year-on-year (excluding fresh food and energy): 2.2% – down from 2.1%

Ultimately, signs of cooling inflationary pressures could further reduce expectations around the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates in December.

Traders are currently pricing in a 53% probability of a 25-basis point hike by December, with the odds jumping to nearly 80% by January 2025.

The main theme likely to influence the USDJPY for the rest of 2024 may be central bank expectations.

Investors are questioning the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates one more time this year, while the BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda recently struck a cautious note on future rate hikes.

3) Technical forces

The USDJPY is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe. Prices are trading firmly above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near overbought territory.

A solid daily close above 155.00 could encourage a move toward 156 and 157.95 – the upper bound of Bloomberg’s FX model.

Should prices slip below 155.00, this may send the USDJPY back toward 154.00 and the 21-day SMA at 153.50.

usdjpy daily

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 72% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 153.46 – 157.95 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Nov

The PBoC kept interest rates. The escalating war between Ukraine and Russia is negatively affecting investor sentiment

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.28% on Tuesday. The S&P500 Index (US500) was up 0.40%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) rose by 0.71%. The escalating Ukraine-Russia war caused a de-risking of stock markets and liquidation of equities. Investors sought safer assets after Ukraine used Western-made missiles to strike Russia, and President Vladimir Putin expanded Russia’s nuclear doctrine to authorize a nuclear response to major conventional attacks.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above 1.4 per dollar as inflation data tempered expectations about the extent of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) rate cuts. The reduced average core inflation rate, the Bank of Canada’s preferred measure of core inflation, rose to 2.6% in October from a three-year low of 2.4% in September, beating expectations. This came amid favorable economic data, including a lower-than-expected unemployment rate and strong PMI readings, further dampening prospects for a significant rate cut.

Equity markets in Europe ended trading yesterday on a weak note. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.67%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.67%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.74%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.13% on Tuesday. Concerns over the impact of US trade tariffs on Eurozone growth and geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment.

WTI crude oil prices traded around $69 per barrel, caught between geopolitical tensions and easing worries in the Middle East. Russia’s conflict with Ukraine intensified as Ukrainian forces used Western-supplied missiles for the first time, and President Putin expanded Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Meanwhile, the IAEA announced that Iran has agreed to halt uranium production, potentially reducing tensions in the region.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.51%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.44%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 0.89%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept key lending rates unchanged at the November fixing, in line with market assessments. The one-year prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was maintained at 3/1%. The five-year rate, the benchmark for mortgage loans, remained at 3/6 %. Both rates remain at record lows following rate cuts in October and July. The latest decision reflects the Chinese Central Bank’s current assessment of existing stimulus measures.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,916.98 +23.36 (+0.40%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,268.94 −120.66 (−0.28%)

DAX (DE40) 19,060.31 −128.88 (−0.67%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,099.02 −10.30 (−0.13%)

USD index 106.18 −0.09 (−0.09%)

News feed for: 2024.11.20

Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Nov

AUD/USD Consolidates After Recent Gains

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar against the US dollar is currently experiencing a pause in its recent upward trajectory, stabilising around 0.6525 on the H4 chart. After three sessions of gains, the currency pair is undergoing a period of consolidation, likely preparing for a return to a stable ascending trend.

The slight retreat in the US dollar, driven by profit-taking after its rally and anticipation of new developments in the US Treasury under President Donald Trump, has influenced the performance of the AUD.

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting highlight the bank’s commitment to maintaining a restrictive monetary policy until inflation consistently approaches the target range. The RBA remains open to adjusting its policy stance in response to changing economic conditions, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut in the coming months, with a 37% probability in February and 58% in April.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: The AUD/USD pair is currently in a phase of correction following a downturn that saw the local decline target at 0.6440 reached. The market is forming a corrective wave towards 0.6543. If this correction is completed, a new downtrend towards 0.6380 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports this bearish AUD/USD outlook, positioned below the zero line and poised to descend to new lows.

H1 chart: On the H1 chart, AUD/USD is approaching the correction target near 0.6543, forming a consolidation pattern just below this level. The breakout from this consolidation is expected to be downwards, initiating another phase of decline. The immediate target for this decline is set at 0.6464. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this bearish forecast, with its signal line pointing downwards towards the 20 mark, indicating potential further declines.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Nov

The RBA will maintain a restrictive monetary policy until the end of the year.

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.13%. The S&P 500 (US500) was up 0.39%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.71%. The US stock indices changed a little as investors await key earnings reports this week, including Nvidia (NVDA) and major retailers. In after-hours trading, Walmart (WMT) is up 1.5% ahead of its earnings release scheduled for Tuesday morning. Conversely, Alphabet (GOOG) shares are down nearly 1% following reports that the US Justice Department plans to ask a judge to force Google to abandon its Chrome browser, citing antitrust concerns. Tesla is up 5.6% following reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s team is exploring easing regulations for self-driving cars. In addition, shares of Advance Micro Devices (AMD) are up more than 3% after IBM said it had signed a deal with the company to supply MI300x gas pedal chips for its cloud network.

Equity markets in Europe ended trading yesterday on a weak note. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.33%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.57%. Nagel, a representative of the ECB’s governing council and president of the Bundesbank, said that if international tensions escalate, this could lead to increased inflationary pressures or increased volatility in consumer price growth, and central banks may have to respond by raising interest rates. His colleague, also a representative of the ECB’s governing council, Stournaras, warned that economic activity could weaken and the Eurozone could fall into recession if the US imposes additional tariffs. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting at 17%.

WTI crude oil prices traded above $69 per barrel on Tuesday after rising 3.2% in the previous session amid concerns over supply disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated after the US and other countries approved Ukraine’s use of US-made long-range missiles on Russian territory, which could draw the US into the conflict. Oil prices were further supported by a weaker US dollar, making oil more attractive to foreign buyers.

Asian markets traded yesterday without any unified dynamics. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 1.09%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.02%, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.77%, and Australian ASX 200 (AU200) yesterday showed a positive result of 0.07%.

Top Chinese officials are gathering for an investment summit in Hong Kong, where the heads of key economic and financial bodies are expected to discuss the latest developments in China’s financial sector. Investors are also focused on the PBOC’s upcoming LPR decision scheduled for Wednesday.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.65 on Tuesday, rising for the third consecutive session, as investors reacted to minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November meeting. The minutes showed that the Central Bank plans to maintain a restrictive monetary policy until it is confident that inflation is moving steadily toward the target while remaining cautious about upside risks to inflation. Currently, markets do not expect the RBA to cut the RBA rate until May next year, and the probability of this happening in February is estimated at 38%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,893.62 +23.00 (+0.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,389.60 −55.39 (−0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 19,189.19 −21.62 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,109.32 +45.71 (+0.57%)

USD Index 106.23 −0.45 (−0.42%)

News feed for: 2024.11.19

Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 12:15 (GMT+2);
Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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