InvestMacro

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.28%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.57%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.57%.

Federal Reserve officials expressed optimism that inflation is falling and the labor market remains robust, supporting the possibility of further interest rate cuts, albeit at a moderate pace, minutes from the November 6–7 meeting showed. Officials noted that monetary policy decisions depend on economic trends and cautioned against premature rate cuts. The volatility of recent data and uncertainty about the impact of a neutral interest rate on economic activity make the policymaking process particularly challenging. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the December 17–18 FOMC meeting at 67%.

Intel (INTC) shares are down more than 3% after Bloomberg reported that Qualcomm’s interest in acquiring Intel has waned. General Motors (GM) stock is down more than 8%, and Ford Motor (F) is down more than 2% after President-elect Trump promised to impose additional 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada. Both automakers import cars from China into the US and have plants in Canada and Mexico.

The Mexican peso fell more than 2% to above 20.7 per US dollar on Tuesday, the weakest since March 2022, after Donald Trump doubled down on his threats to raise tariffs. In his Truth social media posts, Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Mexico is the US’s largest trading partner, and the auto sector would be one of the hardest hit. In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested that Mexico could respond by imposing its own tariffs. The peso has weakened about 20% this year.

Equity markets in Europe were declining yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.87%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.80%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.40%.

WTI crude oil prices held below $69 per barrel on Wednesday as traders weighed signs of another OPEC+ production delay and easing geopolitical risks following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Markets are anticipating the December 1 OPEC+ meeting. It is reported that the group will postpone its planned January production increase by several months due to signs of oversupply. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East eased after Israel and Hezbollah reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement in US-brokered talks. However, shortly after President Biden’s announcement, both sides resumed attacks, underscoring the difficulty in reaching a long-term agreement.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose to $3.48/MMBtu, the highest level in more than a year, as estimates of colder weather and lower production prompted utilities to accelerate the start of the season for drawing gas from storage. EIA data showed that gas inventories in storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet in the week ending November 15 instead of the expected 5 billion cubic feet. It was the first accelerated decline this season, as relatively low prices in the previous week prompted producers to cut production.

Asian markets traded flat on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 0.87%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.28%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 0.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.69%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the discount rate by 50bps to 4.25%, which is in line with market expectations. The RBNZ said the rate cut strikes a balance between supporting growth and employment while keeping inflation under control and ensuring market stability. This is the third rate cut by the Central Bank this year, bringing the total easing to 125bps this cycle. In addition, Governor Adrian Orr has suggested that another significant interest rate cut will occur early next year if economic conditions develop as expected. In the external market, the kiwi remains under pressure from recent tariff threats by US President-elect Donald Trump, particularly those targeting China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

In Australia, the annual CPI reading came in at 2.1%, which is in line with the growth seen in September but below analysts’ estimate of 2.3%. This is the lowest inflation rate since July 2021. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) believes that monetary policy should remain restrictive until there is confidence that inflation is moving steadily towards target.

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.99%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.30%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrials set a new all-time high, and the Nasdaq 100 set a weekly high. Stocks rose on Monday amid optimism that President-elect Trump has picked Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, to be US Treasury Secretary to bring a Wall Street mentality to the role and ease concerns about Trump’s inflationary agenda of tax cuts and tariff hikes. Bessent said he would support Trump’s policies, but his experience as a fiscal hawk indicates he will prioritize economic and market stability and deficit reduction.

Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 4% and topped the list of losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 markets after Amazon.com said it was developing its own artificial intelligence chips. Moderna (MRNA) closed up more than 6% after Jefferies said Robert F. Kennedy’s appointment to the Department of Health and Human Services is unlikely to mean an end to vaccines.

The Dollar Index climbed back above 107 on Tuesday as President-elect Donald Trump stepped up his threats to raise tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, among others, sparking renewed demand for the dollar. Trump said he would impose additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the US, as well as 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.

Equity markets in Europe rallied yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.43%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.03% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.36%. The German IFO Business Climate Index for November fell by 0.8 to 85.7, weaker than expectations of 86.0. ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks said yesterday that given the European economy at the moment, another interest rate cut in December should follow. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting by 100% and a 50 bp rate cut at the same meeting by 35%.

Platinum (XPTUSD) prices fell to $950 per ounce, not far from the two-month low of $930 reached on November 13, and followed a general decline in precious metals-related assets as markets reduced their demand for safe-haven assets.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 3% on Monday to settle at $68.90 a barrel following reports that Israel and Hezbollah are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement. Iran announced plans to expand nuclear fuel production after criticism from the UN atomic watchdog, preparing for potential sanctions under a possible second Trump administration. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister said OPEC+ may maintain its current oil production cuts from January 1 as the group continues to delay planned production increases due to demand concerns. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for December 1 and will be held online.

Asian markets traded flat on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 1.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.28%.

Trump confirmed his plans to impose an additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods, adding to fears of global trade tensions. Against this backdrop, the offshore yuan fell to around 7.26 per dollar, nearing its lowest level since late July. Earlier this week, the PBoC kept the MLF rate at 2.0%, injecting 900 billion yuan and withdrawing 550 billion yuan. Last week, the Central Bank also kept the one-year lending rate at 3.1% and the five-year lending rate at 3.6%, indicating a cautious stance on supporting economic growth.

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.97% (week-to-date +1.99%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.35% (week-to-date +1.62%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.17% (week-to-date +1.59%). Investor rotation from technology sectors to economically sensitive sectors such as financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary contributed to the broader market’s gains. On the economic front, S&P’s US PMI for November rose to 55.3, showing the fastest private sector growth since April 2022.

Mexico’s Q3 2024 GDP grew by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, the fastest pace since Q1 2022, beating estimates of 1%. Mexico’s annual inflation rate fell to 4.56% in mid-November, an eight-month low, down from 4.69% in October and below projections. Despite strong growth supporting gradual rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico, the peso (MXN) is under pressure from the US dollar rally driven by a strong labor market, sustained Fed policy expectations, and speculation about President-elect Trump’s inflationary policies. Reports of the appointment of trade hawk Robert Lighthizer as US Trade Representative and the potential appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State with his hardline stance on Latin America further add to concerns.

Investors who bet on “buying a digital asset and the dollar” after Trump’s victory are still in profit. Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 mark and is up about 50% since early October, when markets were leaning toward Trump’s election victory. The Dollar Index is up 3.6%. The Mexican peso has lost over 4%, and European stocks are down about 3%. However, resistance to Trump-related trades could increase if equity valuation concerns intensify or geopolitical risks challenge the rally in risk assets.

Equity markets in Europe were rising on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.92% (week-to-date +0.38%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.58% (week-to-date -0.27%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.39% (week-to-date +0.16%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.38% (week-to-date +2.46%). According to the ECB representatives, the European Central Bank’s policy will evolve regardless of what happens in the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg estimates that the Fed will cut rates in December, but policymakers will keep borrowing costs unchanged in January. Meanwhile, the ECB has cut rates three times since June and is expected to continue at its next four meetings.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Friday he would reintroduce negative interest rates if necessary, which has weakened the Swiss franc against the dollar and euro. Schlegel said the Central Bank doesn’t like negative rates but could use them if necessary to reduce investor appetite for the safe-haven franc. The SNB has cut the benchmark rate to 1% three times during 2024 and expects further cuts. There is currently a 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 28% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the Central Bank’s next meeting in December.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.6% to $71.2 a barrel on Friday, ending the week up more than 5%, helped by the escalating conflict in Ukraine, which added a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. China unveiled new policies aimed at boosting trade, including support for energy imports, amid concerns over Trump’s potential tariffs.

The US natural gas prices fell to $3.1 per mmbbl after hitting a one-year high of $3.35 in November 21 amid expectations of higher production next year. The EIA noted that US drillers are expected to increase production next year for the first time since the pandemic amid increased export capacity and global demand for US LNG. Nevertheless, prices rose nearly 20% in November as estimates of the colder weather accelerated expectations for the start of the storage withdrawal season.

Asian markets were flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.83%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.87%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.31%.

Japan’s Coincident Economic Index, which includes data such as output, employment, and retail sales, came in at 115.3 for September 2024, slightly below the prognoses of 115.7. Nevertheless, this result has improved compared to the six-month low of 114.0 recorded in August, reflecting a moderate economic recovery.