InvestMacro

On Tuesday, the US stock indices renewed their historical highs amid a combination of strong corporate earnings and declining energy prices. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.73%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.81%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.31%. The decline in oil prices became an important factor – it partially eased inflation concerns. This occurred against the backdrop of geopolitical signals indicating relative stability in the Middle East despite recent attacks.

The macroeconomic picture remains mixed: JOLTS data confirm the resilience of the labor market, while business activity indicators point to persistent price pressure. This supports a more hawkish tone from some Federal Reserve representatives and maintains uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy. At the company level, Intel stood out with growth amid news of possible cooperation with Apple. Micron shares also rose significantly thanks to new products, and Amazon received support due to the development of its logistics operations. Meanwhile, Palantir declined due to investor disappointment in its expectations, and AMD came under pressure ahead of its earnings release.

In Europe, by the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 1.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 1.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.80% on Friday, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session down by 1.40%. The improvement in sentiment was largely driven by falling global energy prices amid expectations of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Additional support came from stronger‑than‑expected quarterly corporate results.

The Swiss franc (CHF) held near 0.78 per US dollar, remaining close to historical highs. The currency is supported both by expectations regarding Swiss National Bank policy and by steady demand for safe‑haven assets amid geopolitical tensions. Recent data showed that inflation in Switzerland accelerated to 0.6% in April – the highest level in 16 months. The main factor was rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. This is the second consecutive acceleration of inflation, and the figure exceeded the regulator’s average estimates of 0.5% for the current and next years. The franc continues to benefit from a combination of its “safe haven” status and the relative stability of the domestic macroeconomic environment.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices fell by about 4% and dropped below $102 per barrel, losing the gains of the previous session. Pressure on prices came from statements by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the ceasefire with Iran remains in place despite recent attacks on the UAE. An additional factor was confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz remains open: according to Hegseth, two US commercial vessels successfully passed through it with military support, which repelled attacks using drones, missiles, and armed boats. This reduced market concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not traded yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 was also not traded yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by-0.50%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.19%.

In the first quarter of 2026, Hong Kong’s economy delivered a phenomenal result, recording growth of 5.9% year‑on‑year. This figure not only exceeded conservative analyst expectations of 3.5%, but also became the strongest economic surge for the autonomy since the second quarter of 2021, accelerating from 4.0% at the end of last year. In quarterly terms, seasonally adjusted Hong Kong GDP increased by 2.9%, which is also a five‑year high. Against the backdrop of tight monetary policy tied to Federal Reserve rates due to the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar, such resilience looks like a strong signal of a full recovery of the Asian financial hub.

In the May Financial Stability Report, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman stated that the national financial system remains highly resilient amid escalating global threats. According to the regulator, the country’s commercial banks have solid capital and liquidity buffers, confirmed by recent stress tests. This allows the banking sector to continue lending to the economy and helping borrowers cope with pressure in foreign funding markets in case the situation worsens. However, the prolonged armed conflict between the US and Iran has already begun to slow New Zealand’s emerging economic recovery. Rising fuel prices and overall uncertainty are hitting consumer activity, worsening labor‑market projections.

On Monday, the US stock market declined. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.13%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.41%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.19% lower. The market came under pressure from a sharp rise in oil prices amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, which intensified investor concerns about further inflation acceleration. Tensions surged after an exchange of strikes between the US and Iran. The situation worsened following statements from Donald Trump about plans to ensure safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, to which Tehran responded with threats against US forces. Against this backdrop, commodity and industrial sectors performed the worst, while energy companies posted gains.

European stock markets fell sharply amid escalating US-Iran tensions, which heightened fears of an energy crisis and its economic consequences. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped 1.24%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.71% lower, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 2.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.14%. Eurozone and pan‑European indices came under pressure as rising geopolitical tensions triggered another spike in oil prices and tightened financial conditions. Reports of mutual attacks and military actions in the Persian Gulf increased uncertainty, pushing bond yields higher and strengthening expectations of further ECB tightening. The banking sector suffered from rising borrowing costs, while higher electricity prices weighed on industrial and tech companies. An additional negative factor was the US announcement of new tariffs on European cars, which dragged down automaker stocks and deepened the market sell‑off.
WTI crude rose about 3%, approaching $105 per barrel amid a sharp escalation in the Middle East. The trigger was a confrontation between US and Iranian forces near the Strait of Hormuz: according to US reports, Iran launched cruise missiles at military and commercial vessels, while American forces intercepted drones and small boats to protect shipping routes. Additional concerns were fueled by reports of intercepted missiles, a fire at the Fujairah oil terminal, and a drone strike on a tanker near the strait – one of the first significant incidents involving infrastructure in recent weeks.

Silver fell more than 2%, dropping toward $73 per ounce and partially correcting its previous rally. The metal came under pressure from rising geopolitical tensions, which revived fears of accelerating inflation. The prolonged conflict has already driven energy prices sharply higher, increasing the risk of prolonged or even tighter monetary policy. Since the start of the confrontation, silver has lost roughly one‑fifth of its value.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) and China’s FTSE China A50 were closed on Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 1.24%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.37%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) fell to 0.71 USD, losing support after the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Although the RBA raised the cash rate for the third consecutive time, by 25 basis points to 4.35%, the highest since the post‑pandemic spike, the regulator’s tone was softer than expected. The decision passed with an 8-1 vote, but policymakers hinted at a possible pause and a “data‑dependent” approach, disappointing AUD buyers who expected a stronger signal for continued tightening. Geopolitical tensions added further pressure: the threat of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed oil supply disruptions triggered a flight to the US dollar as a safe‑haven asset.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to 0.586 USD amid a sharp escalation of the geopolitical crisis. A direct military clash between US and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf, with the involvement of the UAE, jeopardized the four‑week ceasefire and crushed investor appetite for risk assets. Market attention is now focused on Wednesday’s release of New Zealand’s Q1 labor‑market report. Investors are trying to assess how severely the national economy has been affected by the energy shock.

On Friday, the US stock market posted a sharp rise. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) slipped 0.31%, while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.29%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq 100 (US100) closed 0.94% higher. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 updated their all‑time highs. Apple shares rose more than 3% thanks to strong earnings and upbeat guidance, supported by robust iPhone sales and stable performance in the Chinese market. In the energy sector, ExxonMobil and Chevron posted moderate gains after reporting profits above expectations. Tech stocks remained in focus as well: Meta stabilized after recent declines, and Nvidia added over 1% amid ongoing discussions about AI‑related investment prospects.

In the first week of May, investors will face a new wave of corporate earnings, with major companies from technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and entertainment set to report. At the same time, market attention will shift to US macroeconomic data, with a full set of labor‑market indicators scheduled for release. These include the April nonfarm payrolls report, ADP employment data, Q1 productivity and labor‑cost figures, and job‑openings statistics. Expectations point to slower job growth compared to March, moderate wage acceleration, and unemployment remaining broadly unchanged.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surpassed $80,000, hitting a three‑month high amid a broad rally in risk assets. Investor sentiment was boosted by progress in the US Senate on stablecoin regulation, seen as a key step toward legitimizing the digital assets industry. Institutional demand also supported the move: US spot ETFs recorded $630 million in weekly inflows, underscoring the asset’s resilience after a 12% gain in April. Geopolitical tensions remain extremely high. Donald Trump’s statement about providing military escort for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp protest from Tehran, which viewed it as a violation of the ceasefire. Despite ongoing volatility in the conflict zone weighing on traditional markets, Bitcoin continues to act as “digital gold” and an alternative risk asset, largely ignoring escalation risks.

Most European markets were closed on Friday due to a banking holiday. The only major index trading was the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100), which ended the day 0.14% lower. After a busy end to April, marked by key economic data, central‑bank decisions, and corporate earnings, Europe’s early‑May agenda will be somewhat calmer. With rate‑hold decisions already announced, attention will shift to the next steps from regulators: central banks of Sweden and Norway will publish their decisions, while the ECB will release analytical materials and projections accompanied by speeches from policymakers. A key macroeconomic event will be Germany’s foreign‑trade data, where a decline in the trade surplus is expected due to higher energy prices and increased imports. Additional insight into industrial conditions will come from production and order figures, which may show signs of recovery. The UK will release housing‑market data, while Switzerland will publish inflation, unemployment, and consumer‑sentiment indicators. Meanwhile, earnings season continues for major European companies in the banking, industrial, and energy sectors.

On Friday, WTI crude prices fell to nearly $101 per barrel, partially giving back weekly gains amid rising expectations that the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran may evolve into a more stable agreement. Reports emerged of a new proposal from Tehran, and Donald Trump noted progress in negotiations, though he expressed doubts about reaching a final deal. Markets are also watching the political dimension: the US president faces a 60‑day limit under the War Powers Act, requiring either congressional approval or troop withdrawal. The administration maintains that the ceasefire has effectively halted active hostilities. Since the conflict began in late February, oil prices have surged nearly 60%, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz significantly reduced global supply.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose 0.38% on Friday. China’s FTSE China A50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were closed, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.74%.

This week in China, market attention will focus on April foreign‑trade data, which will help assess the impact of the Middle East conflict on the country’s economy, as well as private‑sector activity indicators, including services PMIs. In Japan, investors will analyze the minutes of the March central‑bank meeting for clues on future policy and monitor wage‑growth trends.

In Australia, another rate hike is expected amid rising inflationary pressures linked to global risks. Across the region, a large batch of macroeconomic releases is scheduled, including inflation, GDP, labor‑market data, foreign‑trade figures, and manufacturing PMIs, offering a broader view of economic conditions in Asia and neighboring regions.

On Thursday, the US stock market surged sharply. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) jumped 1.62%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.02%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.89% higher. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their strongest monthly gains since 2020. Investor optimism was fueled by strong corporate earnings, which managed to overshadow concerns about an oil shortage and disruptions in the Persian Gulf.

The corporate sector split into clear winners and losers: Alphabet (+10%) and Intel became the stars of the day – the former thanks to record performance in cloud technologies and its Gemini AI, and the latter due to strong demand for its 18A chips. They were joined by Caterpillar (+9.8%) and Eli Lilly (+10%), which raised its profit outlook amid strong demand. Apple also supported the positive sentiment by reporting better‑than‑expected results after the market closed. Meanwhile, Meta and Microsoft continued to decline as markets remained skeptical about their massive spending on AI infrastructure. However, the PCE Inflation Index rose to 3.5%, which, combined with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, sets the stage for a prolonged period of high interest rates. The market is effectively celebrating corporate efficiency while ignoring rising stagflation risks and geopolitical tensions.

The Mexican peso (MXN) stabilized around 17.5 per dollar, remaining near a three‑week low. Pressure on the currency increased after GDP data showed that Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.8% in Q1 2026 – significantly worse than expected. The downturn affected all key sectors, including services and manufacturing.

On Thursday, European markets broke an eight‑session losing streak. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose 1.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.53%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.78%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.62% higher. Support came from the ECB and the Bank of England keeping interest rates unchanged, as well as a decline in oil prices. However, regulators signaled that future decisions will depend on economic conditions: the ECB pointed to persistent risks to inflation and growth, and its president confirmed that a rate hike had been discussed. The Bank of England, in turn, did not rule out tougher measures if the consequences of the conflict with Iran intensified pressure on the economy. Fresh data showed eurozone inflation accelerating to 3%, the highest in several years, while economic growth at the start of the year was weaker than expected.

Silver prices (XAG) posted a strong rebound, rising to $73 per ounce after falling to a monthly low. The recovery was supported by temporary stabilization in oil prices, which cooled government bond yields and revived investor interest in precious metals. Despite ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, the market temporarily shifted its focus from geopolitical risks to fundamental demand factors.

WTI crude prices moved lower after briefly climbing to nearly a four‑year high of around $111 per barrel. Pressure on prices emerged following reports that Donald Trump may be presented with a detailed military options report regarding Iran. The document, prepared by military leadership, reportedly includes scenarios for resuming the conflict, including the possibility of a short but intense series of strikes. Despite the formally active ceasefire, tensions in the region remain high. Restrictions imposed by both the US and Iran have effectively disrupted the functioning of the key oil supply route through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global crude exports passes. As a result, the market is facing a severe supply shortage, which international energy agencies describe as unprecedented. Against this backdrop, US oil exports have surged to record levels as buyers seek alternative sources.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 1.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) slipped 0.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed negative 1.28%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined 0.24%.

On Friday, the Australian dollar (AUD) hovered near 0.72 USD, ending the week with gains as markets prepare for the upcoming central bank rate decision. The regulator is expected to raise the rate by 25 basis points, marking the third consecutive hike and bringing it to 4.35%. Expectations of further tightening later in the year are growing, as inflationary pressures remain elevated, partly due to global supply disruptions linked to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) traded near 0.59 USD after rising about 1.3% in the previous session, supported by a notable weakening of the US dollar. Markets still consider the possibility of further tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). However, expectations of a rate hike in May have dropped significantly – investors now see the probability at below 30% after the central bank governor stated that core inflation in Q1 remained within the target range. Meanwhile, expectations of tightening in the summer are already largely priced in.

On Wednesday, the U.S. stock market declined. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index (US30) fell by -0.57%. The S&P 500 index (US500) slipped by -0.04%. The tech index Nasdaq (US100) closed slightly higher at +0.04%.

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in the 3.5-3.75% range, but the decision revealed an unprecedented split within the leadership. The 8-4 vote became the largest internal protest since 1992: one official demanded an immediate rate cut, while three others opposed any signals of easing. The regulator directly linked the high uncertainty to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which threatens price stability. Jerome Powell confirmed he will remain on the Board of Governors after his term as Chair ends, ensuring continuity during the crisis.

Markets interpreted the meeting as a sign that the period of tight policy may last longer due to deep disagreements within the Committee itself. The Canadian dollar (CAD) stabilized at 1.37 per U.S. dollar after synchronized decisions by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Fed to maintain current monetary‑policy settings. The Canadian regulator kept the rate at 2.25%, noting that although gasoline and food prices are pushing inflation toward 3%, long‑term expectations remain anchored. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar received safe‑haven support due to the lack of progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

On Wednesday, European markets closed in the red for the eighth consecutive session. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by -0.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down -0.39%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by -0.74%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down -1.16%. The European banking sector showed resilience thanks to strong earnings from HSBC, whose shares rose 3.5% after announcing a buyback and high profits. Today, investors await tomorrow’s decisions from the Bank of England and the ECB. Given the record jump in eurozone inflation expectations to 4%, market participants fear that Christine Lagarde may take a more hawkish stance than previously expected. Fresh inflation data complicates the situation for the European regulator: Germany’s rate rose to 2.9%, and Spain’s to 3.5%, the highest in two years. The UAE’s exit from OPEC has added volatility to commodity markets but has not yet pushed WTI oil below 100 dollars per barrel.

On Wednesday, WTI oil prices surged more than 7%, exceeding 107 dollars per barrel. The sharp jump was triggered by Donald Trump’s statement that the naval blockade of Iran will continue until a new nuclear deal is reached, eliminating any remaining hope for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is worsened by the UAE’s exit from OPEC and U.S. data showing a critical drop in inventories amid record exports above 6 million barrels per day. The enormous demand for U.S. crude confirms a global supply deficit caused by the paralysis of Middle Eastern logistics, pushing prices to new multi‑year highs.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) did not trade yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by +0.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up +1.68%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by -0.27%.

The offshore yuan stabilized at 6.84 per dollar, preparing to end the month in positive territory thanks to unexpectedly strong Chinese data. Despite global instability, China’s manufacturing sector showed impressive resilience: the private PMI jumped to 52.2, the highest since late 2020, and the official index remained in expansion territory for the second month (50.3). The country’s economy is effectively cushioning the Middle East crisis through strategic oil reserves and an aggressive shift toward renewable energy. Markets are now focused on Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to China on May 14-15.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) stabilized at 0.583, attempting to recover after falling to a three‑week low. The kiwi weakened due to a sharp revision of expectations for the RBNZ rate decision: after comments from Anna Breman about stable core inflation, the probability of a May rate hike fell from 60% to 45%. The situation is worsened by the business climate, which in April turned negative for the first time in three years amid the energy shock and falling exporter profits. The future of the kiwi now depends entirely on whether recession fears outweigh the need to fight inflation at the upcoming central‑bank meeting.