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COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (119,513 contracts) with the Fed Funds (49,366 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (24,793 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (15,191 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (9,495 contracts) also showed a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-89,757 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-25,863 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-15,481 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-4,108 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Bond Markets Price Performances were lower across the board this week

The Fed Funds was the only market this week that did not see a dip in price performance as the Fed Funds were approximately unchanged on the week. The one-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was lower by -0.01%, while the three-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was also lower by -0.01%.

The 2-Year Bond fell by -0.55% on the week, while the 5-Year Bond was lower by -1.09% and the 10-Year Note was down by -1.58%. The long US Treasury Bond was the largest decliner on the week with a drop lower by -2.5%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (90 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (75 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the 5-Year Bonds (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (29.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (58.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (44.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (71.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (95.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (90.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (85.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (75.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (66.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (46.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (47.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (18.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (19.4 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-12 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-11 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-11.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-38.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-11.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (52.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (16.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (17.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-9.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-12.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -160,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 49,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -209,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	67.4	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	59.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-160,245	139,115	21,130
– Gross Longs:	227,008	1,224,038	45,288
– Gross Shorts:	387,253	1,084,923	24,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	64.7	90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	11.6	1.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -778,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -763,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	57.4	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	51.6	0.4
– Net Position:	-778,512	765,404	13,108
– Gross Longs:	1,729,384	7,557,162	64,763
– Gross Shorts:	2,507,896	6,791,758	51,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	81.2	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	9.0	6.9

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -177,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -173,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	60.0	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	46.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-177,288	177,472	-184
– Gross Longs:	298,453	767,910	160
– Gross Shorts:	475,741	590,438	344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	53.2	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-16.8	-0.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,338,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,348,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	75.5	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	48.1	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,338,541	1,232,909	105,632
– Gross Longs:	666,377	3,393,548	238,612
– Gross Shorts:	2,004,918	2,160,639	132,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	88.6	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	13.2	-1.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,090,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -25,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,064,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	81.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	53.2	4.3
– Net Position:	-2,090,794	1,942,942	147,852
– Gross Longs:	510,662	5,547,849	438,288
– Gross Shorts:	2,601,456	3,604,907	290,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	71.3	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-2.5	0.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -654,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 119,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -774,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	77.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.3	7.3
– Net Position:	-654,507	620,305	34,202
– Gross Longs:	611,965	4,244,872	431,657
– Gross Shorts:	1,266,472	3,624,567	397,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	47.9	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	6.6	-19.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -145,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -89,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	78.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	68.9	13.3
– Net Position:	-145,020	238,200	-93,180
– Gross Longs:	243,446	1,948,642	237,999
– Gross Shorts:	388,466	1,710,442	331,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	38.1	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.4	-30.7	19.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	70.3	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	79.2	6.0
– Net Position:	20,265	-163,455	143,190
– Gross Longs:	212,313	1,289,561	253,391
– Gross Shorts:	192,048	1,453,016	110,201
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	3.3	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-18.0	18.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -255,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -280,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	83.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	72.6	7.8
– Net Position:	-255,694	241,965	13,729
– Gross Longs:	152,514	1,860,020	187,508
– Gross Shorts:	408,208	1,618,055	173,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	34.8	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.3	8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 Mar

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets through Tuesday was Brent Oil (22,025 contracts) with Heating Oil (824 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-7,903 contracts), Gasoline (-6,975 contracts), the Bloomberg Index (-1,650 contracts) and with WTI Crude (-562 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Oil Markets lead Price Performance this week as all 6 Markets saw strong gains on Iran War

Leading the Energy markets this week was WTI Crude Oil, which jumped by approximately 33% over the last five days due to the Iran war. Following next was Heating Oil, which also jumped by over 30%. And Brent Crude Oil was not to be outdone with a gain of 26.17% over that period. Gasoline rose sharply by 20% in the past five days, while Natural Gas was up by 10.73%, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by a strong 8.69%.

These sharp increases in the past week have now pushed all of these six Energy markets higher over the past 30 days and over the past 90 days, with the exception of Natural Gas, which is down by -5.06% in the past 30 days and is also lower by -1.70% in the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gasoline & Heating Oil

On the downside, Natural Gas (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the Bloomberg Commodity Index (40.8 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (42.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (42.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (42.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (10.6 percent)
Natural Gas (0.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (5.1 percent)
Gasoline (88.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (96.2 percent)
Heating Oil (66.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (65.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (40.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (48.6 percent)

WTI Crude & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that WTI Crude (30.1 percent) and Gasoline (23.2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

The Bloomberg Index (-38.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Natural Gas (-8.3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (30.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (36.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (20.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-22.3 percent)
Natural Gas (-8.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-8.3 percent)
Gasoline (23.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (29.0 percent)
Heating Oil (2.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-38.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-31.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 172,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	40.7	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	51.4	1.9
– Net Position:	172,150	-222,327	50,177
– Gross Longs:	355,158	842,957	89,225
– Gross Shorts:	183,008	1,065,284	39,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	48.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-38.3	63.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	39.5	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	29.4	2.6
– Net Position:	-27,468	25,400	2,068
– Gross Longs:	64,040	99,338	8,498
– Gross Shorts:	91,508	73,938	6,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	58.1	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-20.7	-14.1

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -206,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -198,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	37.8	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	26.4	2.5
– Net Position:	-206,422	184,360	22,062
– Gross Longs:	210,477	607,907	62,972
– Gross Shorts:	416,899	423,547	40,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	1.5	26.9

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	42.8	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.7	68.2	2.9
– Net Position:	91,817	-104,850	13,033
– Gross Longs:	111,324	177,263	25,236
– Gross Shorts:	19,507	282,113	12,203
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	6.9	96.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.2	-25.7	26.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	45.4	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	59.1	7.3
– Net Position:	17,655	-42,602	24,947
– Gross Longs:	56,514	140,463	47,560
– Gross Shorts:	38,859	183,065	22,613
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.7	26.0	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-9.2	22.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	66.9	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	60.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-14,034	13,355	679
– Gross Longs:	66,250	140,036	759
– Gross Shorts:	80,284	126,681	80
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	9.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	58.1	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.9	39.2	1.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

07 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (81,231 contracts) with Soybean Meal (21,920 contracts), Soybeans (11,630 contracts), Lean Hogs (6,052 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,752 contracts), Sugar (1,089 contracts) and Cotton (873 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-9,920 contracts), Cocoa (-4,550 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,896 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,014 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soybean Oil leads the Soft Commodities price performance this week

Leading the soft commodities price performance this week was Soybean Oil with a strong 7.13% gain over the past five days. Coffee rose this week by 4.67%, followed by Wheat, which rose by 4.61%. Corn was higher by 3.64%. Soybeans were up by 2.54%, and Sugar was higher by approximately 2% on the week. Live Cattle was up by 1.77%, and Lean Hogs advanced by 0.32%.

On the downside, the biggest loser on the week was Soybean Meal with a -3.78% decline, followed by Cotton, which dipped by -2.28%. And Cocoa was virtually unchanged with a small decline of -0.26%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybeans (93 percent) and Soybean Oil (86 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (82 percent), Lean Hogs (80 percent) and Soybean Meal (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (1 percent) and Sugar (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (22 percent) and the Coffee (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (48.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.4 percent)
Sugar (1.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.4 percent)
Coffee (34.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (36.0 percent)
Soybeans (92.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (90.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (86.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (56.3 percent)
Live Cattle (64.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (68.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (79.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (75.3 percent)
Cotton (22.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.8 percent)
Cocoa (1.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.3 percent)
Wheat (81.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (90.5 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (60 percent) and Soybean Oil (40 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (39 percent), Soybeans (36 percent) and Corn (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-13 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.8 percent)
Sugar (-12.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-15.1 percent)
Coffee (-19.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-20.0 percent)
Soybeans (36.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (39.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (54.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-1.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (5.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (19.7 percent)
Cotton (-1.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.5 percent)
Wheat (60.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (62.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 90,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a huge weekly increase of 81,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	45.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	49.3	10.1
– Net Position:	90,059	-59,782	-30,277
– Gross Longs:	336,624	738,095	132,844
– Gross Shorts:	246,565	797,877	163,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	48.1	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.4	-16.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -245,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -246,123 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	53.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	29.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-245,034	251,319	-6,285
– Gross Longs:	193,313	557,892	75,220
– Gross Shorts:	438,347	306,573	81,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	97.6	23.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	10.2	6.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,800 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	42.5	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	48.9	4.1
– Net Position:	10,800	-10,840	40
– Gross Longs:	47,704	72,071	7,071
– Gross Shorts:	36,904	82,911	7,031
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	67.7	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.0	18.7	-5.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 221,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	42.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	61.5	8.2
– Net Position:	221,902	-188,859	-33,043
– Gross Longs:	303,059	418,119	48,014
– Gross Shorts:	81,157	606,978	81,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.9	9.4	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.3	-34.1	-44.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 73,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	46.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	58.0	3.7
– Net Position:	73,189	-85,779	12,590
– Gross Longs:	169,509	327,390	39,288
– Gross Shorts:	96,320	413,169	26,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.1	13.5	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.7	-43.4	60.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	47.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	65.2	5.3
– Net Position:	72,755	-90,226	17,471
– Gross Longs:	143,508	249,235	45,080
– Gross Shorts:	70,753	339,461	27,609
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	35.7	42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.1	-41.0	16.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 87,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.9	29.8	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	51.6	12.0
– Net Position:	87,850	-74,493	-13,357
– Gross Longs:	146,655	102,033	27,700
– Gross Shorts:	58,805	176,526	41,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	31.5	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	3.6	-5.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 74,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,918 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	29.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	46.9	8.0
– Net Position:	74,970	-65,300	-9,670
– Gross Longs:	152,501	111,253	20,445
– Gross Shorts:	77,531	176,553	30,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	24.0	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-12.4	-14.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.2	42.2	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	34.7	3.6
– Net Position:	-28,097	24,523	3,574
– Gross Longs:	112,260	138,605	15,326
– Gross Shorts:	140,357	114,082	11,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	75.8	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.6	8.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -17,830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	47.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	38.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-17,830	16,480	1,350
– Gross Longs:	41,974	90,280	10,890
– Gross Shorts:	59,804	73,800	9,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	98.0	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-2.0	20.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	32.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	26.7	7.7
– Net Position:	-26,008	27,472	-1,464
– Gross Longs:	121,504	146,569	32,849
– Gross Shorts:	147,512	119,097	34,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	15.5	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	60.1	-63.0	-25.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

06 Mar

Investors run to safe-haven assets amid Middle East escalation

By JustMarkets

The US stock market concluded Thursday’s session in the red as the escalating Middle East conflict pushed WTI oil prices above $80 per barrel. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.61%. The S&P 500 (US500) shed 0.56%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed down 0.29%. Fearing stagflation and new logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, investors actively offloaded industrial sector holdings. Simultaneously, the financial sector faced massive sell-offs; banking giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lost between 3% and 3.7% in value amid volatile bond yields. The current dynamics reflect growing market pessimism regarding global economic growth prospects during a prolonged confrontation. The combination of inflationary pressure and the threat of energy shortages is forcing traders to reassess their portfolios.

European markets demonstrated a broad decline on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) dropped 1.61%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.49%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.38%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished down 1.45%. Ongoing strikes between Iran and Israel on infrastructure targets in the Persian Gulf are provoking an uncontrolled surge in resource prices. The spike in natural gas prices was particularly painful for European equities, pushing bond yields higher and triggering a new wave of sell-offs in the banking sector, where shares of giants like Santander and Deutsche Bank fell nearly 3%. Investors seriously fear that a protracted conflict and energy shock will lead to industrial stagnation in Europe, forcing them to rotate capital from cyclical stocks into defensive instruments.

Benchmark oil prices made a powerful leap, gaining over 8% and consolidating above $80 per barrel – a level not seen since the summer of 2024. The rally was driven by a critical breakdown in global supply chains following the near-total halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after an Iranian missile attack on a commercial vessel. The situation was further exacerbated by Beijing’s decision to ban its largest refineries from exporting diesel and gasoline, intensifying the fuel product deficit and neutralizing international efforts to calm investors via insurance measures and military escorts. Despite the panic, a counterweight emerged from fresh US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, which recorded an unexpected 3.5-million-barrel increase in commercial crude inventories. Total reserves of 439.3 million barrels provide a safety cushion capable of partially absorbing supply shocks in a prolonged conflict.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) corrected to $2.98 per MMBtu, partially offsetting previous gains after Washington announced upcoming measures to stabilize the energy market. Despite this local pullback, quotes maintain a positive weekly trend of approximately 4%, reacting to the unprecedented operational halt at Qatar’s Ras Laffan hub and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are deeply concerned about a global LNG shortage, as the force majeure in Qatar, one of the world’s largest exporters, creates systemic risks for supplies to Europe and Asia.

Asian markets traded lower yesterday, though with mixed results. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.90% during the session, while the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.65%. The Hang Seng (HK50) edged up 0.28%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.44%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) recovered to $0.590, yet it is ending the week in the red due to the flight to safe-haven assets. As an economy heavily dependent on energy imports, New Zealand has proven highly vulnerable to fuel price spikes, increasing pressure on the “kiwi.” Domestically, a serious dissonance is emerging between market expectations and official rhetoric; traders now price in an 80% probability of an RBNZ rate hike in September, expecting a total tightening of 40 basis points by year-end.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,830.71 −38.79 (−0.56%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,954.74 −784.67 (−1.61%)

DAX (DE40) 23,815.75 −389.61 (−1.61%)

FTSE 100 10,413.94 −153.71 (−1.45%)

USD Index 99.06 +0.29% (+0.30%)

News feed for: 2026.03.06

Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – CAD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Mar

EUR/USD Under Pressure: Middle East Risks Outweigh All Else

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1620 on Friday, with the US dollar on track to gain approximately 1% by the end of the week. The dollar is benefiting from safe-haven demand amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.

The joint US-Israel military operation against Iran continues into its seventh day. Tehran has responded with a fresh wave of missile and drone strikes targeting Gulf countries.

US President Donald Trump also stated that he would like to be involved in selecting Iran’s next leader. At the same time, he described the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei – son of the late Supreme Leader – as unlikely.

Rising oil prices have heightened concerns over a new wave of global inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts. Markets now anticipate the first Fed rate cut no earlier than September or October, revised down from the previous July forecast.

This week, the dollar strengthened most notably against the euro, reflecting the European economy’s heavy reliance on oil imports from the Middle East.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a compact consolidation range around the 1.1600 level. The current structure suggests a high probability of a wave developing towards 1.1533, with scope to extend further to 1.1500.

A downside breakout from this range would open the door for the second half of the momentum to unfold, with targets at least around 1.1400. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing strictly downwards, reflecting sustained bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a growth wave targeting 1.1620, followed by a decline to form a consolidation range around 1.1600. An upside breakout from this range could trigger another growth leg to 1.1660, potentially extending to 1.1675, after which the broader downward trend is likely to resume towards 1.1500.

A downside breakout from the range would activate a continuation wave towards 1.1500, which could mark the completion of the third wave in the broader downward trend. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line has turned away from 80, indicating a short-term downward swing towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under significant pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive safe-haven flows into the US dollar, while pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation concerns. The combination of delayed Fed rate cut expectations and Europe’s particular vulnerability to energy disruptions has exacerbated the euro’s weakness. With technical indicators pointing firmly lower, further downside appears likely, though short-term consolidation around key levels may precede the next leg of the downtrend.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Mar

Bitcoin shows resilience to Middle East events. Oil market stabilizes

By JustMarkets

The US stock market rose on Wednesday. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.49%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.79%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.51%. The US stock market displayed a confident “bullish” sentiment, largely ignoring geopolitical tensions. The primary driver of optimism was a decline in WTI oil prices: the market reacted with relief to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to protect oil traffic in the Persian Gulf. Even the official confirmation of the 15% global tariffs taking effect this week failed to dampen risk appetite, as strong US macro data outweighed trade concerns. The February ADP report showed private sector employment growth of 185k (above the 145k prediction), while wage growth slowed. This created an ideal “soft landing” picture – a strong economy with cooling inflation in the services sector. The semiconductor sector led the rally: Micron and AMD shares jumped more than 5.5%, while Amazon rose 3.9%. Investors are betting that tech giants will remain resilient even under inflationary pressure.

The market was also stirred by a New York Times report stating that Iranian intelligence, through intermediaries, reached out to the CIA to discuss ceasefire terms. Despite this rare signal toward de-escalation, investor reaction remained cautious. US officials expressed doubt regarding Iran’s sincerity, viewing it as an attempt to buy time. Following the deaths of Iran’s top leadership, it remains unclear who possesses the authority to negotiate, which intensifies political chaos and sustains demand for safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin has consolidated above the psychological threshold of $72,000, holding near monthly highs as markets gradually stabilize following the escalation in the Middle East. Despite disruptions in global logistics through the Strait of Hormuz and the initial flight to safety, the digital coin demonstrated exceptional resilience. Notably, in recent days, the flagship of the digital assets market outperformed traditional gold in recovery pace: while the precious metal dipped by 2%, Bitcoin gained about 12%, effectively seizing the status of a priority haven amid geopolitical turbulence.

European markets showed a strong bullish reversal, almost completely recouping the losses of “Black Tuesday.” The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.74%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.79%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.49%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.80%. Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, diplomatic signals from Washington and the stabilization of the energy market provided Europe with a necessary breathing spell.

The Swiss franc (CHF) held its position near 0.78 against the US dollar, remaining at historic highs amid a complex interplay of geopolitics and domestic economics. Investors continue to view the franc as a “safe harbor,” though further growth potential is limited by the hawkish rhetoric of the SNB. Internal conditions are complicated by fresh inflation data: in February, the CPI rose 0.6% for the month, but annual inflation stalled at 0.1%. This is a critically low figure, sitting at the very edge of the SNB’s target range (0-2%). SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin confirmed that the bank is ready for aggressive currency interventions, fearing that an overly strong franc will cheapen imports and push the economy into a deflationary spiral.

The oil market moved toward a fragile stabilization, with WTI crude futures declining to $74 per barrel. This marked the first drop in prices since the start of direct military confrontation between the US and Iran. The primary factor for the price decline was the decisive economic measures taken by the Donald Trump administration aimed at preventing a global energy collapse. Specifically, the President directed the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to implement a political risk insurance mechanism with affordable rates for vessels operating in the conflict zone. Despite verbal interventions by Scott Bessent and US promises of military escort for tankers, the physical situation in the Persian Gulf remains paralyzed. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively ceased following IRGC threats to attack any vessels. Most large tankers remain at anchor.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) broke a three-day rally on Wednesday, falling below $3 per MMBtu. The market reacted to the first signals of possible de-escalation in the Middle East: reports of Iran’s readiness for negotiations reduced fears of a global fuel shortage, leading to a price correction, following oil. Despite positive news regarding possible contacts between Tehran and Washington, the physical blockage of supplies from the Persian Gulf remains a reality. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most commercial traffic, and Qatar’s largest LNG plant has yet to resume operations.

Asian markets traded lower yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.61% during the session, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 1.60%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell 2.01%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.91%. On Thursday, however, Chinese stock indices showed a confident rebound. The recovery was driven by improved global sentiment and the stabilization of inflation expectations, despite ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran. Beijing intends to counter deflationary risks and external tariff pressure through aggressive subsidies for the high-tech sector, R&D, and support for domestic consumer demand.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,869.50 +52.87 (+0.78%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,739.41 +238.14 +(0.49%)

DAX (DE40) 24,205.36 +414.71 (+1.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,567.65 +83.52 (+0.80%)

USD Index 98.76 -0.28% (-0.29%)

News feed for: 2026.03.05

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Mar

GBP/USD: Market Not Expecting BoE Rate Cut in March

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD contracted to 1.3350 on Thursday, with the pound remaining under pressure and trading near three-month lows.

Pressure on the dollar has eased over the past 24 hours following reports that Iran has offered to discuss terms for a potential end to the conflict. According to The New York Times, representatives of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence made contact with the CIA through intermediaries, just one day after the commencement of joint US-Israel attacks. However, Israeli authorities have advised Washington not to respond to this proposal just yet.

Investors are also weighing the impact of rising energy prices on the Bank of England’s (BoE) future policy. With inflationary risks rising, expectations of an imminent rate cut have diminished significantly.

The market now assigns only a 20% probability of a BoE rate cut this month, a sharp decline from around 75% just a week ago.

Meanwhile, the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.1%, down from the previously anticipated 1.4%. However, the outlook for 2027 and 2028 remains more optimistic, with annual growth projected at around 1.6%. A gradual decline in government borrowing and inflation is also expected.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a wide consolidation range around the 1.3326 level, currently extending up to 1.3393. A decline to 1.3131 is expected in the near term. Following this correction, a new consolidation phase is likely. An upside breakout would pave the way for the wave to extend to 1.3410, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement towards 1.2971. This scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, which shows its signal line below the zero line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3333 level. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3266. If this level is breached, further downside potential towards 1.3125 is possible. This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the 50 level and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains under pressure, with shifting central bank expectations and geopolitical developments driving price action. The dramatic reversal in BoE rate-cut probabilities – from 75% to just 20% in a week – reflects growing concerns about inflation driven by rising energy prices. While tentative diplomatic signals from Iran have temporarily eased dollar strength, the technical outlook for the pair remains decidedly bearish, with further downside anticipated in the near term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Mar

Brent headed for $100?

By ForexTime

Oil benchmarks surge over 15% since Monday on supply fears
Spiking energy prices have fueled inflation fears
Cooling Fed cut bets could hit equity markets
Brent firmly bullish with $90and $100 acting as key levels of interest

Brent oil has rallied as much as 17% since Monday, pushing 2026 gains to 35%.

Why:

Iran conflict: Global oil markets have been thrown into turmoil by the US and Israeli war against Iran. This has halted trade, driven producers to lock output and forced the closure of a major refinery part.

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: This is a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean where around 20% of the world’s oil passes through. Iran has effectively closed this passage – warning that any vessel that passes would be set “ablaze”.

What does this mean?

Consumer pain: A sustained rise in oil prices could be bad news for consumers as the cost of petrol and domestic energy bills increases.

Inflation fears: Aggressively rising energy prices may raise inflationary fears, forcing markets to push back against rate-cut expectations.

Return of equity bears: This domino effect may hit global stocks which have been benefiting from the prospect of lower rates in 2026.

Potential scenarios

Bullish Scenario: The direct military escalation in the Middle East has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Any supply shock could drive Brent toward $90 and $100.

Bearish Scenario: Easing tensions or the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz may cool supple-side fears. A break below the $78 support could trigger a sell-off toward $75 for Brent.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Financial News

04 Mar

Global stock indices continue sell-off due to Middle East conflict

By JustMarkets

The US stock market declined sharply on Tuesday. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.83%. The S&P 500 (US500) dropped by 0.94%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.09%. A turning point came with President Trump’s announcement that the US Navy would provide military escort for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This promise not only checked the speculative peak in Brent crude prices but also calmed the bond market, allowing Treasury yields to stabilize and providing a breather for the technology sector. Nevertheless, previous growth leaders such as Nvidia and Tesla ended the day in the red, down 1.3% and 2.7% respectively, remaining under pressure from high borrowing costs.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 17.7 per dollar, hitting a six-week low amid catastrophic foreign trade data and intensifying geopolitical risks. In January, Mexico recorded a historic trade deficit of $6.48 billion, driven by a 33.5% collapse in oil exports and a 9% reduction in vehicle shipments to the US. The situation is exacerbated by a new 10% global US import tax introduced on February 24, which threatens Mexico’s key export chains and offsets the positive impact of the Q4 GDP revision to 0.9%.

Stock markets in Europe continued their plunge on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 3.44%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 3.46%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 4.55%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 2.75%. The primary driver of the sell-off was the fear of a massive energy shock: due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension of production at Qatari plants, natural gas prices in Europe soared by more than 40%, exceeding €60/MWh. This jeopardizes the region’s energy-intensive industrial sector. Additional pressure came from fresh Eurozone inflation data for February, which unexpectedly accelerated to 1.9% (against an anticipation of 1.7%), while core inflation jumped to 2.4%. This spike, amplified by the Milan Winter Olympics and rising service prices, forced traders to revise ECB rate expectations – the probability of rate cuts in 2026 has practically vanished, giving way to prognosis of potential policy tightening.

Silver prices (XAG) suffered a crushing collapse on March 3, plummeting by more than 10% and falling below the psychological mark of $80 per ounce. Much like gold, silver fell victim to the phenomenal strengthening of the US dollar, which has displaced all other safe-haven assets amid the full-scale military conflict with Iran. Investors preferred the liquidity of the US currency, while silver, possessing a significant industrial component, faced double pressure: as a precious metal, it suffered from rising bond yields, and as an industrial metal, it was hit by global recession risks due to expensive energy.

WTI oil prices demonstrated extreme volatility decreasing to $73.8 per barrel after an initial morning surge of over 8%. The initial panic jump was caused by massive drone attacks on strategic sites: the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia and the oil hub near the port of Fujairah (UAE). However, the market reversed sharply following President Trump’s emergency statement regarding US Navy escorts in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the correction from daily highs, quotes remain at their peak levels since June of last year due to ongoing logistical paralysis. Even with US Navy support, shipping in the Persian Gulf is effectively paralyzed as leading insurers (Lloyd’s of London, etc.) continue to refuse war risk coverage or set prohibitive rates. Investor attention is now fixed on the effectiveness of air defense systems in the Emirates: any successful breach by Iranian missiles targeting export terminals could instantly return prices to levels above $80.

Asian markets traded lower yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.06%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.14%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.12%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.34%. On Wednesday morning, the Hang Seng plunged to 25,098 (-2.6%), its third consecutive decline, nearing an 11-week low. Investors fear the blockade will trigger a prolonged energy shock that will accelerate global inflation.
The Australian dollar (“aussie”) dropped to the $0.700 level, hitting a four-week low. Paradoxically, even brilliant Q4 2025 GDP data (Australia’s economy grew by 0.8% against a 0.7% prediction, with the annual rate accelerating to a three-year high of 2.6%) could not stop the fall. The currency became a hostage to the global flight to safety as investors ignored domestic economic success in the face of a looming full-scale war in the Middle East.

The New Zealand dollar (“kiwi”) made a weak attempt to rise to $0.589 but remained near a six-week low. As a “risk” currency, the kiwi is highly sensitive to the escalation in the Persian Gulf. The main pressure factor is New Zealand’s critical dependence on imported refined fuel: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the halt of exports from Qatar threaten the country with a sharp spike in gasoline prices. Amid the external chaos, the RBNZ maintains a surprisingly calm stance. New Governor Anna Breman confirmed a soft monetary policy path, stating the economy is capable of recovering without creating excessive inflationary pressure.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,816.63 −64.99 (−0.94%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,501.27 −403.51 (−0.83%)

DAX (DE40) 23,790.65 −847.35 (−3.44%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,484.13 −295.98 (−2.75%)

USD Index 99.03 +0.64% (+0.65%)

News feed for: 2026.03.04

Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
China Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (HIGH)
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+2). – CAD (LOW)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

04 Mar

USD/JPY to Quickly Return to Growth: Momentum Favours the US Dollar

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY paused briefly midweek after a series of solid gains, currently trading at 157.59. The Japanese currency remains under pressure from a strengthening US dollar amid concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could keep energy prices elevated and heighten inflation risks.

The market has also revised its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, shifting the likelihood of a reduction from July to September. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, the dollar has emerged as a primary safe-haven asset, particularly as the US-Israel military operation against Iran enters its fifth phase.

US President Donald Trump suggested that the strikes could lead to a change of power in Iran. However, any new regime might prove equally problematic, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s outcome.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that currency interventions remain a potential tool to support the yen. According to her, authorities are monitoring exchange rate dynamics with heightened urgency and are coordinating their actions with the US.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around 157.00, which is currently extending to 157.92. A decline to test the 157.00 level from above is expected today. Following this, a potential growth leg towards 158.06 is likely. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is well above the zero line and pointing firmly downward.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming a downward wave pattern, targeting the 157.00 level, with a possible extension to 156.66, and further growth towards 158.38 anticipated thereafter. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above the 20 level and pointing firmly downward.

Conclusion

USD/JPY’s brief consolidation appears temporary, with the broader trend favouring further upside for the dollar. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reinforced the dollar’s safe-haven status, pushing back expectations for Fed rate cuts and creating a supportive backdrop for the pair. Despite verbal intervention warnings from Japanese officials, the technical outlook suggests USD/JPY is poised to resume its upward trajectory once the current correction runs its course.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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