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Archive for Financial News – Page 48

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Nasdaq, FedFunds & WTI Crude lead Bullish & Bearish Bets

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 26th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position once again comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level has advanced to a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 20 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 14,698 net contracts this week with a boost by 9,259 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a small gain of 2 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 36,082 net contracts this week with an addition of 2,237 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week with the Lean Hogs speculator level sitting at an 85 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decrease of -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 76,068 net contracts this week with a rise of 6,359 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 106,277 net contracts this week with an edge higher of 136 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 78 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -8 percentage points.

The speculator position was -248,945 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,783 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the FedFunds speculator level sitting at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -70 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -393,823 net contracts this week with a drop of -76,769 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the WTI Crude speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -22 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 109,472 net contracts this week with a reduction by -10,737 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -74,738 net contracts this week with a change of -4,445 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The USD Index speculator level is now at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -6 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -6,105 net contracts this week with a slide by -117 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Next, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain of 2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,463,971 net contracts this week with an advance of 44,412 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

30 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Steel & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Steel & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (1,721 contracts), Steel (741 contracts), Platinum (736 contracts) and Copper (198 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-407 contracts) and Silver (-83 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Price Changes led by Gold & Silver

Metals markets price performance this week was led by Gold and Silver, which were higher by just about the same percent of 2.40%. Copper came in next with a 1.30% gain on the week while Platinum was higher by 1.14%.

Palladium was lower this week by -1.52%, followed by Steel, which saw the biggest loss on the week by -4.70%.

Strength Scores led by Silver & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (74 percent) and Palladium (73 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.0 percent)
Silver (74.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (74.2 percent)
Copper (57.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.5 percent)
Platinum (53.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.5 percent)
Palladium (73.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.4 percent)
Steel (61.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (55.4 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (0.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals Gold was the only positive mover in the latest trends data and highlights the cool-off in sentiment for the metals market currently.

Silver (-16 percent), Copper (-13 percent) and Platinum (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.7 percent)
Silver (-16.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.0 percent)
Copper (-13.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-12.6 percent)
Platinum (-8.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-13.5 percent)
Palladium (-4.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.5 percent)
Steel (-2.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-7.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 214,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 212,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.1	16.4	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	73.0	4.5
– Net Position:	214,311	-250,965	36,654
– Gross Longs:	275,767	72,908	56,712
– Gross Shorts:	61,456	323,873	20,058
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	32.0	96.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.1	-3.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,466 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -83 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.0	29.1	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	72.1	6.8
– Net Position:	46,466	-68,285	21,819
– Gross Longs:	68,227	46,134	32,659
– Gross Shorts:	21,761	114,419	10,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	19.4	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	12.5	7.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	34.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	53.3	4.6
– Net Position:	26,230	-34,994	8,764
– Gross Longs:	56,762	66,222	17,555
– Gross Shorts:	30,532	101,216	8,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	40.3	70.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	6.1	45.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.6	19.3	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	44.4	5.0
– Net Position:	15,786	-21,441	5,655
– Gross Longs:	49,314	16,518	9,976
– Gross Shorts:	33,528	37,959	4,321
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	44.9	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	3.2	24.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	34.6	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.2	25.0	6.3
– Net Position:	-4,141	1,823	2,318
– Gross Longs:	7,433	6,552	3,505
– Gross Shorts:	11,574	4,729	1,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.4	11.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	-4.4	39.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	76.3	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	77.3	1.2
– Net Position:	83	-235	152
– Gross Longs:	4,544	18,488	431
– Gross Shorts:	4,461	18,723	279
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	39.2	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.3	-9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

30 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (83,284 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (61,687 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (61,457 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (44,412 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (15,030 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10,479 contracts) also showing positive weekly position changes.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-76,769 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-11,568 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,783 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

10-Year Bonds lead price gains for the week

The bond markets price performance this week saw the 10-Year Note edge up by 0.40% to lead the bonds over the last 5 days. Next was the 5-Year Bond, which rose by 0.38% on the week. The Fed Funds was up by 0.23%, the 2-Year Bond was up by 0.16%, while the 3-month secured overnight financing rate was up by 0.11%. On the downside, the 1-month secured overnight financing rate was lower by a minuscule -0.01%, while the long U.S. Treasury bond was down by -0.52% on the week.

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (78 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (12.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (28.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (21.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (65.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (77.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (80.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (62.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (65.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (45.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (41.3 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (33 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-70 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-70.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-54.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (32.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (33.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (10.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (14.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -393,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -76,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -317,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	70.8	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	55.3	1.6
– Net Position:	-393,823	387,741	6,082
– Gross Longs:	234,998	1,768,689	46,345
– Gross Shorts:	628,821	1,380,948	40,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-70.1	72.4	0.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -284,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 83,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	56.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.9	0.3
– Net Position:	-284,862	284,938	-76
– Gross Longs:	1,879,823	7,177,125	35,672
– Gross Shorts:	2,164,685	6,892,187	35,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	54.3	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-8.2	-21.8

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	59.8	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	58.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-24,498	23,079	1,419
– Gross Longs:	333,133	1,050,557	2,063
– Gross Shorts:	357,631	1,027,478	644
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	37.2	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-30.1	-4.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,263,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 61,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,324,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	77.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	52.9	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,263,082	1,103,308	159,774
– Gross Longs:	502,153	3,487,542	307,308
– Gross Shorts:	1,765,235	2,384,234	147,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	75.4	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-7.6	10.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,463,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 44,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,508,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	51.5	4.0
– Net Position:	-2,463,971	2,276,169	187,802
– Gross Longs:	483,232	6,128,955	488,889
– Gross Shorts:	2,947,203	3,852,786	301,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	95.8	84.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.8	6.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -883,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -945,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	76.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	63.6	6.2
– Net Position:	-883,829	729,027	154,802
– Gross Longs:	508,552	4,316,228	503,746
– Gross Shorts:	1,392,381	3,587,201	348,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	63.2	91.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	6.0	22.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -328,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -339,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	72.7	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	58.8	11.6
– Net Position:	-328,671	375,957	-47,286
– Gross Longs:	310,448	1,972,725	266,499
– Gross Shorts:	639,119	1,596,768	313,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	74.9	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-18.2	15.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,030 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	78.7	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	81.9	6.6
– Net Position:	-36,013	-72,481	108,494
– Gross Longs:	158,716	1,767,293	255,791
– Gross Shorts:	194,729	1,839,774	147,297
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	17.9	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.7	-36.7	31.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -248,945 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -242,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	81.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.8	8.7
– Net Position:	-248,945	250,719	-1,774
– Gross Longs:	132,974	1,797,826	191,259
– Gross Shorts:	381,919	1,547,107	193,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.8	38.1	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	4.6	8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

30 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (34,270 contracts) with Soybean Meal (15,232 contracts), Wheat (14,836 contracts), Lean Hogs (6,359 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,303 contracts), Coffee (2,614 contracts) and Live Cattle (136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-4,445 contracts), Cocoa (-4,033 contracts), Cotton (-2,501 contracts) and with Soybeans (-1,557 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee leads price gains on the week

The soft commodities price performance this week was led for a second straight week by Coffee, which rose by over 6% in the last 5 days. Lean Hogs was next with a gain by over 5.5%. Soybean Meal rose by 2.27%, followed by Live Cattle, which rose by approximately 2%. Corn was up by 1.56%, and Wheat was also higher by 1.42%.

Soybeans was virtually unchanged with a -0.04%, edging lower this week. Sugar fell by -0.73%. Cotton was down by -1.28%, followed by Cocoa, which saw a -2.70% decline. And finally, Soybean Oil was the lowest on the week with a decrease by -3.03%.

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (85 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (73 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (15 percent) and Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (26.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.9 percent)
Sugar (0.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.7 percent)
Soybeans (55.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (72.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (69.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.7 percent)
Live Cattle (82.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (79.9 percent)
Cotton (14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.4 percent)
Cocoa (18.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.2 percent)
Wheat (31.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.8 percent)

Soybean Meal & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (18 percent) and Corn (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (2 percent) and Soybeans (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-8 percent), Sugar (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.8 percent)
Coffee (0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.3 percent)
Soybeans (0.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (1.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.0 percent)
Cotton (-7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.3 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.6 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -70,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	46.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	40.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-70,940	93,769	-22,829
– Gross Longs:	337,007	675,979	135,440
– Gross Shorts:	407,947	582,210	158,269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.6	71.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.6	5.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -74,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	45.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-74,738	75,802	-1,064
– Gross Longs:	190,535	491,865	71,165
– Gross Shorts:	265,273	416,063	72,229
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	96.8	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	2.4	16.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	38.2	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	59.0	3.8
– Net Position:	31,274	-33,581	2,307
– Gross Longs:	55,237	61,582	8,434
– Gross Shorts:	23,963	95,163	6,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	44.9	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-1.5	24.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	56.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	56.2	7.8
– Net Position:	18,189	-643	-17,546
– Gross Longs:	153,775	483,561	49,348
– Gross Shorts:	135,586	484,204	66,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	43.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-0.2	-6.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	43.5	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	54.0	4.3
– Net Position:	55,510	-63,636	8,126
– Gross Longs:	142,575	262,931	34,031
– Gross Shorts:	87,065	326,567	25,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	29.2	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	6.6	-21.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	52.4	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	49.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-32,896	18,769	14,127
– Gross Longs:	108,956	312,972	48,413
– Gross Shorts:	141,852	294,203	34,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	82.5	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-14.2	-54.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 106,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	28.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.6	12.8
– Net Position:	106,277	-85,211	-21,066
– Gross Longs:	189,758	112,784	28,909
– Gross Shorts:	83,481	197,995	49,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	18.5	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-4.1	5.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	27.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	48.4	7.3
– Net Position:	76,068	-71,664	-4,404
– Gross Longs:	152,263	93,942	20,718
– Gross Shorts:	76,195	165,606	25,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	14.2	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.3	8.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	48.0	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	32.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-37,606	37,534	72
– Gross Longs:	67,460	116,539	12,245
– Gross Shorts:	105,066	79,005	12,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	86.2	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	7.3	-1.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	45.8	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	58.9	8.1
– Net Position:	7,996	-11,793	3,797
– Gross Longs:	24,532	41,060	11,033
– Gross Shorts:	16,536	52,853	7,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	81.9	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	4.3	-4.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	20.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-78,782	78,683	99
– Gross Longs:	127,585	171,579	33,536
– Gross Shorts:	206,367	92,896	33,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	69.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	6.9	33.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

29 Aug

August was the best month for gold since April

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold (XAUUSD) is holding steady near USD 3,410 per ounce on Friday, just shy of its monthly high, and is set to close its second straight week with gains. The metal is supported by a weaker dollar and consistent safe-haven demand as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path lingers.

Dollar weakness and Fed uncertainty support gold

Investors are moving into gold amid concerns that political pressure on the Fed could accelerate the pace of rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September. Further support came from Fed Board member Christopher Waller, who said he expects rates to begin falling as early as next month, aligning with other policymakers’ dovish stance.

Attention now turns to the upcoming US household spending report, which is forecast to show stronger growth. This follows revised Q2 GDP data, which revealed slightly higher-than-expected economic expansion. However, concerns about rising inflation are also mounting, keeping gold attractive as a hedge.

Overall, August is shaping up to be gold’s strongest month since April, with prices consolidating at the upper end of the range, underpinned by a mix of dollar weakness and growing economic uncertainty.

Technical analysis of XAUUSD

On the H4 timeframe, gold completed a growth wave to 3,423, marking a local target. A decline towards 3,371 is now in play, with the market continuing to develop a wide consolidation range around this level. A downward breakout would open the way to 3,290, while an upward breakout could extend the range to 3,431 before the downtrend resumes towards 3,290. The MACD indicator supports this view: its signal line is above zero at the highs but has left the histogram zone, a sign of potential weakness and the beginning of a move towards new lows.

On the H1 chart, XAUUSD formed a consolidation range around 3,368 and broke upwards, completing the third growth wave at 3,420. The market has now started a downward correction towards 3,368. After reaching this level, a compact consolidation range is expected. A downward breakout would confirm continuation of the decline to 3,290, while an upward breakout could produce another growth structure towards at least 3,425. The Stochastic oscillator confirms the bearish correction, with its signal line below 50 and heading strictly towards 20.

Summary

Gold is consolidating near highs after its best monthly performance since April. While short-term corrections towards 3,371 and 3,290 remain likely, broader support from a weak dollar, Fed policy uncertainty, and inflation concerns continues to underpin the bullish outlook. Resistance levels are at 3,423–3,431, while support lies at 3,371 and 3,290.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

29 Aug

The S&P 500 Index rose to a record high above 6,500. Inflationary pressures ease in Japan

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, US stock indices continued to rise. The Dow Jones (US30) climbed by 0.16%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.32% to reach a new record high above 6,500, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished up 0.53%. Market sentiment was supported by strong economic data and sustained enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, despite mixed signals from Nvidia’s latest earnings report. The chipmaker reported a 56% surge in quarterly revenue but excluded potential China sales from its expectations, causing its stock to dip slightly even as analysts raised price targets and affirmed confidence in AI-driven growth. Other tech firms, including Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, saw gains, highlighting the sector’s momentum. In the broader economy, US Q2 GDP was revised upward to 3.3% on an annualized basis, and jobless claims came in lower than expected, which eased recession concerns.

European stocks closed mixed on Thursday as markets digested key US tech sector earnings and the global rate outlook. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.03%, while the French CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.24% and the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.34%. The UK FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.42%. The minutes from the ECB’s July meeting revealed a split among policymakers regarding the inflation outlook. Some argued that near-term risks were tilted to the downside, citing a weaker growth outlook and the impact of US tariffs. Others warned that risks could still be to the upside, particularly in the long term, given uncertainty about energy prices and currency movements. While inflation is at the target, officials noted it’s partly driven by temporary factors that could shift, underscoring the ongoing debate over whether the ECB should be cautious or vigilant in its policy.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.7% and reached $64.6 per barrel on Thursday, reversing earlier losses. The fading prospect of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine lowered expectations for additional Russian supplies to enter global markets. Hopes for an easing of export restrictions on Moscow’s crude were further diminished as traders awaited a potential signal for tighter sanctions from President Trump. At the same time, Ukraine intensified its drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, disrupting exports and adding to the uncertainty.

Asian markets were mostly up on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.73%, while China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.02%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.81%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed with a positive result of 0.22%.

Tokyo’s core consumer prices in August 2025 came in at 2.5% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of decline and meeting market expectations. Although inflation has slowed, it remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, which supports speculation about another rate hike later this year. Governor Kazuo Ueda recently noted that further wage growth is expected amid a tightening labor market, reinforcing the view that conditions for additional tightening are gradually forming. At its July meeting, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation expectations and struck a more optimistic tone on the economy.

The Australian dollar climbed to $0.654 USD on Friday, marking its fourth straight session of gains and reaching a two-week high, while the US dollar remained under pressure. The AUD also found support from stronger-than-expected domestic inflation, which eased market bets on a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Still, the Central Bank’s August meeting minutes indicated that further cash rate cuts are likely within the next year, with the pace and timing dependent on upcoming data and global risks. Investors are now looking ahead to the upcoming manufacturing PMI to get new insights into the country’s economic momentum.

In New Zealand, two-year-ahead consumer inflation expectations eased from 5.1% to 4.8%, while house price expectations held at 3.5%. Despite this, declining real interest rates and a dovish RBNZ stance are providing some support, although consumer sentiment and retail spending may remain subdued in the near term.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,501.86 +20.46 (+0.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,636.90 +71.67 (+0.16%)

DAX (DE40) 24,039.92 −6.29 (−0.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,216.82 −38.68 (−0.42%)

USD Index 97.84 −0.40 (−0.40%)

News feed for: 2025.08.29

Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Consumer Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Aug

NVDA shares fell despite a positive report. Oil prices are rising amid a reduction in inventories

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, stock indices recovered from early losses and advanced. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.32%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.24%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up by 0.17%. The S&P 500 (US500) set a new record, and the Nasdaq (US100) hit a weekly high. The strengthening of software company stocks drove the overall market higher.

On Wednesday, Nvidia reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, but data center sales revenue was slightly below expectations, as US restrictions on H20 chip sales to China had a negative impact. Following the report’s release, NVIDIA shares dropped by about 3.1% in aftermarket trading.

European stock markets mostly declined on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.44%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.44%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) dropped by 0.11%. Investors continued to monitor the heightened political uncertainty in France ahead of a confidence vote on September 8. Domestically in Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator fell to 23.6 in September 2025 from a slightly revised negative 21.7 in August, missing the expectations of a negative 22.0 and marking the weakest reading since April. The decline reflects households’ growing concerns about potential job cuts and persistent inflation. On the corporate front, Commerzbank (-2.5%), Deutsche Bank (-2.3%), and Siemens Energy (-1.6%) suffered sharp losses. Conversely, automaker stocks traded higher, led by Porsche (+2.4%), Mercedes-Benz (+1%), and BMW (+0.9%).

The Swiss Investor Sentiment Index fell by 56.2 points month-over-month to 53.8 in August 2025, signaling a return to pessimism after a brief positive reading of 2.4 in July. This is the weakest reading since November 2022, primarily due to the US imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss exports in early August. The US accounts for about 17% of Switzerland’s total exports, making it the country’s largest export market. Analysts expect Swiss export dynamics to weaken in the next six months.

WTI oil prices rose to $64.1 per barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a 2.4% fall on Tuesday, after US government data pointed to a larger-than-expected reduction in inventories. Crude oil inventories shrank by 2.39 million barrels to 418.3 million, which was more than the market anticipated, while stocks at the key Cushing hub decreased by 838,000 barrels.

Asian markets were mostly down on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.97%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 1.27%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.28%.

The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.27% on Wednesday, reversing earlier gains and marking a second day of losses amid a sell-off across all sectors. Sentiment worsened after several Chinese brokerage firms and fund managers reportedly restricted financing and purchases amid growing risks associated with the recent sharp rise in mainland stocks. Trading volume on Chinese exchanges on Tuesday exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, the second-highest record.

The Australian dollar rose above the $0.650 mark on Thursday, extending its rally for a third consecutive session, supported by easing bets on another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market prices now imply only about 34 basis points of additional easing by the end of 2025, and the probability of a September move has decreased to roughly 25%, after July’s inflation came in higher than expected.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,481.40 +15.46 (+0.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,565.23 +147.16 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 24,046.21 −106.66 (−0.44%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,255.50 −10.30 (−0.11%)

USD Index 98.21 −0.01 (−0.01%)

News feed for: 2025.08.28

Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Aug

Sterling is demonstrating stability, buoyed by shifting interest rate expectations surrounding the Bank of England (BoE)

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair advanced to 1.3509 on Thursday. The primary catalyst for traders was the latest UK Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

UK producer inflation accelerated to a two-year high, reaching 1.9% year-on-year (y/y) in June. This follows a previous report showing that consumer price inflation (CPI) rose to 3.8% y/y in July, an 18-month peak. Despite these inflationary pressures, money markets are currently pricing in only a 40% probability of a BoE rate cut by the end of the year.

Despite near-term volatility, sterling remains approximately 1.5% higher against the US dollar for August. This appreciation has been driven by diminishing expectations of an imminent BoE rate cut and a series of robust macroeconomic data releases. The hawkish sentiment was underscored by comments from Catherine Mann, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, who stated that policy must remain unchanged to anchor inflation effectively.

In summary, a hawkish repricing of BoE interest rate expectations is providing short-term momentum for the pound.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair completed a downward impulse wave to the 1.3420 level, followed by a corrective bounce to 1.3515. The market continues to develop a consolidation range around the 1.3455 level. The primary scenario for today is a resumption of the downward wave towards the 1.3360 support. A decisive break below this level would open the potential for a further decline towards the next downside targets of 1.3270 and 1.3140. This bearish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing sharply lower.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market formed a downward wave structure towards 1.3417, which was followed by a corrective wave to 1.3517. The current expectation is for the initiation of a new declining wave towards 1.3455, with the potential to extend the downward structure towards the 1.3390 level. This scenario is technically corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently below the 80 level and is trending sharply downwards towards 20, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.

Conclusion

The fundamental backdrop, characterised by persistent inflation and hawkish BoE rhetoric, offers near-term support for sterling. However, from a technical perspective, both the H4 and H1 charts suggest a high probability of a short-term bearish correction. Key levels to watch on the downside are 1.3360 and 1.3390. A break below these support levels could trigger a deeper pullback, despite the positive fundamental drivers.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Aug

Gold Surges Amid Mounting Global Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of gold reached 3,383 USD per ounce on Wednesday, trading near a two-week high. The rally is being driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets, fuelled by growing concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

US President Donald Trump has signalled a potential legal battle following the resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, whom he had accused of misconduct. Her departure has reignited debates about the central bank’s autonomy and the issue of political pressure. Cook’s exit could accelerate the timing of interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump’s public calls for a more accommodative monetary policy. Market pricing currently indicates an approximately 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September.

Trade tensions have further contributed to market unease. US authorities stated that a trade agreement with India before a key deadline is unlikely, which could result in tariffs on Indian goods doubling to 50%. Conversely, Indonesia has secured an exemption from tariffs on a range of raw materials. Simultaneously, Trump has threatened to impose severe tariffs on Chinese exports of rare earth metals, significantly escalating tensions between the two economic superpowers.

Political risks are also intensifying in Europe. The French Prime Minister continues to promote an austerity plan ahead of a crucial confidence vote, creating additional political uncertainty in the region.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair on the H4 chart completed an upward wave towards the 3,393 USD level. The focus now shifts to the potential for a decline to the 3,350 USD support level. The market appears to be consolidating within a broad range around this point. A decisive break below this range would open the potential for a further downward wave towards 3,290 USD.

This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero at recent highs but has diverged from the histogram, which suggests weakening momentum and a potential move towards new lows.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has also completed a wave structure up to 3,393 USD, with a corrective wave down to 3,350 USD underway. Upon reaching this level, we anticipate the formation of a tight consolidation range. A subsequent breakout below this range could extend the decline to 3,330 USD, with the broader trend potentially targeting 3,290 USD.

This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently below the 50 level and is pointing sharply downwards towards 20, indicating strengthening downward momentum.

Conclusion

The fundamental landscape, marked by political and trade uncertainties, is bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Technically, after a period of consolidation, the indicators suggest a heightened potential for a downward move if key support levels are breached.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

27 Aug

Political instability is escalating in France. The RBA intends to continue cutting interest rates despite rising inflation

By JustMarkets

By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.30%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.41%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed up 0.43%. Investors were balancing optimism about corporate earnings with concerns over President Trump’s unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve representative Lisa Cook. Trump’s decision to remove Cook over alleged mortgage lending violations fueled fears about the Fed’s independence, drawing close scrutiny from investors and analysts. Cook stated she plans to legally challenge her dismissal, highlighting the potential long-term risks of a politicized Central Bank. Nvidia shares jumped 1.1% ahead of their quarterly report on Wednesday, amid high expectations for the chipmaker in the face of ongoing US-China trade tensions.

According to preliminary estimates, Canadian manufacturing sales increased by 1.8% in July 2025, following a 0.3% rise in June. The growth was led by the transportation equipment and petroleum and coal product subsectors. If the data is confirmed, it will be the strongest monthly increase since October 2024, indicating a moderate turnaround in manufacturing activity after a period of sluggish performance.

European stock markets mostly declined on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down 1.70%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) dropped by 0.96%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was down 0.60%. The DAX and other European markets fell for a second consecutive day amid ongoing political turmoil in France. Prime Minister François Bayrou’s warning of a debt crisis came just before a confidence vote scheduled for September 8 in the National Assembly. Opposition parties have stated their intention to vote against the motion, raising the risk of government collapse and political instability across Europe.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.4% to $63.20 per barrel on Tuesday, retreating from a nearly three-week high in the previous session as investors weighed geopolitical risks and global demand concerns. The rally on Monday was driven by fears of further disruptions after Ukraine struck Russian energy infrastructure, raising the possibility of tougher US sanctions and deepening fuel shortages in Russia. President Trump warned of new sanctions against Moscow if peace talks stall.

Asian markets were mostly lower on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 0.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.18%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) had a negative result of 0.41%.

The Australian dollar hovered near the $0.650 mark on Wednesday, pausing its rise from the previous session as investors digested fresh data, including stronger-than-expected inflation figures. The data showed that consumer prices rose by 2.8% year-on-year in July, up from 1.9% in June and exceeding market expectations of 2.3%. Core inflation also increased, with the trimmed mean rising to 2.7% from 2.1% and inflation excluding volatile items and holiday travel climbing to 3.2% from 2.5%. Markets remain confident that the RBA will cut rates in November, despite the volatile CPI data.

In China, Cambricon Technologies has surged by 102% this month after the AI chip manufacturer reported record first-half profits, boosted by Beijing’s promotion of domestic technology amid the DeepSeek AI boom. This rally has pushed the company past Kweichow Moutai to become the most valuable stock on China’s A-share market. Economically, official data showed that China’s industrial profits fell by 1.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reflecting continued weakness in domestic demand.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,465.94 +26.62 (+0.41%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,418.07 +135.60 (+0.30%)

DAX (DE40) 24,152.87 −120.25 (−0.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,265.80 −55.60 (−0.60%)

USD Index 98.24 −0.19 (−0.20%)

News feed for: 2025.08.27

Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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