InvestMacro

By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) had grown by 1.12%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 1.07%. The technological Nasdaq index (US100) closed higher by 1.30%. On Monday, US stock indices closed with notable gains amid optimism surrounding upcoming corporate reports and a new wave of support for the banking sector, while investors continued to assess the prospects for easing trade restrictions between the US and China. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones reached new historical highs.

Wells Fargo and Citigroup jumped by 3.3% and 2.3% respectively, and other major banks also strengthened noticeably as investors reassessed the credit stress risks that had been pressuring the sector since the beginning of the month. Apple’s stock rose by 4.4%, setting a new historical high amid signals of high iPhone 17 sales in the US and China.

European stock markets went mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) grew by 1.80%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.39%, Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) rose by 1.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.52%. European stocks in the financial and defense sectors showed strong growth, but BNP Paribas dropped sharply after a US court ruling. BNP Paribas plummeted by 7.7% after a US court ordered the bank to pay $20.75 million in connection with alleged ties to war crimes in Sudan.

On Monday, EU energy ministers supported a plan to phase out imports of Russian oil and gas by January 2028. The bill must still be negotiated with the European Parliament before final adoption. The goal of the initiative is to reduce Russia’s energy revenues, which help finance its war against Ukraine. Russia currently supplies about 12% of the EU’s gas, whereas the share was 45% before the 2022 invasion. Among the countries that still import Russian gas are Hungary, France, and Belgium.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices continued to fall for the second consecutive session. Market pressure was intensified by fears of a global supply surplus and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming trade negotiations between the US and China. The volume of oil in marine transit rose to a record 1.24 billion barrels, indicating a worsening supply-demand imbalance and supporting bearish sentiment.

Asian markets rose steadily yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 3.37%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 2.42%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.41%. Positive sentiment was supported by a strong rally in US futures after President Donald Trump stated that he might lower tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing took reciprocal steps, including resuming purchases of US soybeans. Optimism was reinforced by expectations of additional stimulus from Chinese authorities following the release of Q3 GDP data, which showed growth of 4.8%  the lowest in a year. This week, China’s political leadership is holding meetings to prepare a new Five-Year Plan ahead of the December Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference meetings. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong rose to 3.9%. Looking ahead, authorities expect that certain sectors will continue to face labor market difficulties due to structural changes in the economy and external risks.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar broke its two-day rally, despite optimism fueled by a breakthrough in the trade agreement between the US and Australia. The two countries recently signed a critical minerals partnership.

The New Zealand dollar fell on Tuesday, losing its gains from the previous session amid expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Although third-quarter inflation data showed price growth reaching a yearly maximum of 3%, which is at the upper limit of the RBNZ’s target range, the bank’s preferred inflation indicator remained at its lowest level since the beginning of 2021, and other core indicators also point to restrained price pressure. Futures swaps fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut in November.

US indices finished Friday’s trading session higher, with investors reacting positively to statements from President Donald Trump that eased concerns about a further escalation of the US-China trade conflict. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.52% (weekly gain of +1.08%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.53% (weekly gain of +0.63%). The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up 0.65% (weekly gain of +0.78%). Trump stated that his proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods would be a temporary measure, while simultaneously accusing Beijing of increasing trade tensions. He also confirmed that a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is “most likely to happen at the end of the month,” which market participants viewed as a potential step toward de-escalation. Additional support was provided by the recovery in regional bank stocks after a sharp drop the day before.

On Friday, Bitcoin fell to around $106,000, reaching its lowest level since early July, amid a new wave of risk aversion across global markets. Investor sentiment worsened following new signs of credit stress among US regional banks, which reignited fears of a possible banking crisis similar to the events of 2023 when the Federal Reserve intervened to stabilize the financial system. The market is also under pressure from escalating US-China trade tensions, a protracted US government shutdown, and rising budget concerns, all of which reduce risk appetite among traders.

European stock markets mostly declined on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.82% (weekly loss of -2.22%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.18% (weekly gain of +2.70%), Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) dropped by 0.29% (weekly gain of +0.43%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.86% (weekly loss of -0.77%). In September 2025, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone was 2.2%, slightly above the 2.0% recorded in the previous three months and just above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. Services inflation continued to rise, climbing from 3.1% in August to 3.2%. The rise in the core measure indicates persistent domestic inflationary pressure, which will compel the ECB to maintain rates for the next few months. On Friday, S&P Global Ratings unexpectedly downgraded France’s credit rating by one notch, from AA- to A+, and assigned a negative outlook, citing increased political uncertainty.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.1% on Friday. Despite the small daily gain, this marked the third consecutive week of decline, resulting in a nearly 3% weekly drop amid oversupply concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Fears of rising supply intensified after the International Energy Agency (IEA) expected an increase in the global oil surplus by 2026, and US data showed a sharp rise in inventories over the past week. US production hit a record 13.636 million barrels per day, and demand for storage in key logistics hubs increased significantly. This indicates that market participants expect the supply surplus to persist and potentially pressure prices in the near term.

Silver (XAG/USD) retreated from record highs amid improved investor sentiment. On Friday, silver prices fell by more than 4%. The pressure on quotes came from improved risk appetite after President Donald Trump attempted to mitigate concerns about the US-China trade confrontation. Despite the correction, silver ended the week up by more than 3%, marking its ninth consecutive positive week. The metal had previously been supported by concerns over the stability of the US financial system, triggered by credit fraud scandals in regional banks, which spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, a liquidity crisis in the London silver market caused a deficit in physical supplies, amplifying global demand and forcing some investment funds to temporarily halt the inflow of funds into their silver ETFs.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose by nearly 3%, surpassing the $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) level. However, despite the daily recovery, the price declined for the second consecutive week. Pressure on quotes remains due to expectations of mild weather and high gas inventories, which offset the effect of reduced production and near-record LNG export levels. Higher production in previous months allowed companies to build up reserves, which now exceed the five-year average by approximately 4%.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.51%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) recorded a positive result of 0.85%.

A key vote to elect a new Prime Minister is scheduled in the Japanese parliament on Tuesday. Takaichi, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is negotiating with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) after breaking a more than two-decade partnership with the Komeito party in early October. On Friday, LDP leadership stated that negotiations for a potential coalition are progressing with substantial headway, increasing the chances of forming a stable government. Takaichi previously opposed raising interest rates by the Bank of Japan, and he is expected to maintain this stance as the new Prime Minister, which could influence the country’s monetary policy and negatively impact the dynamics of the yen.

As of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.65%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped by 0.63%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed down 0.47%. The ongoing US government shutdown continues to weigh on market sentiment and delay the release of key economic reports. The US Senate failed for the 10th time to pass a government funding bill, extending the shutdown at least until Monday.

The Mexican peso appreciated to 18.40 per US dollar. The currency’s rise is linked to growing expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, following recent comments from Chair Jerome Powell indicating signs of labor market weakness. These signals have weakened support for the dollar and narrowed the gap between US and Mexican monetary policies. Domestically, Mexico’s inflation accelerated to 3.76% in September, remaining within Banxico’s target range, reinforcing confidence that the central bank can continue its easing cycle.

On Thursday, European indices posted gains: Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.38%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.48%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended 0.12% higher. The market was supported by reduced political uncertainty in France after the government survived a no-confidence vote.

WTI crude fell to $57.5 per barrel on Thursday, marking a five-month low. The decline was driven by stronger-than-expected growth in US oil inventories, which rose by 3.524 million barrels, intensifying concerns about weakening global demand amid ongoing US-China trade tensions.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) are trading at record highs above $54 per ounce. The metal is supported by rising gold prices and a tightening global supply amid growing market instability. Elevated geopolitical risks and concerns over rising government spending and debt are also driving capital flows into safe-haven assets like silver.

Asian markets mostly rose on Thursday: Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.27%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose 0.81%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dipped 0.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a 0.76% gain.

Pressure on the Hang Seng came from declines in tech, consumer, and real estate stocks. Investors remain cautious ahead of the 4th Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, scheduled for October 20–23, where the new five-year development plan for 2026–2030 is expected to be unveiled. Asian indices largely ignored comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested the US may extend its pause on tariffs against Chinese goods by more than three months if China eases export restrictions on rare earth metals.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated Thursday that the central bank will carefully analyze a wide range of data, including insights from his visit to Washington, before deciding on a potential interest rate hike in October. On Japan’s domestic political front, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) reached a preliminary agreement to hold a parliamentary vote on October 21 to elect a new prime minister.

At the close on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.40%. The Technological Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.66%. US stocks finished a volatile session on Wednesday mostly higher, despite lingering trade tensions between the US and China and a protracted government shutdown. Morgan Stanley shares hit a record high, climbing by 4.7%, and Bank of America rose by 4.4% after both banks exceeded third-quarter profit expectations due to robust deal-making.

In mid-October, the Canadian dollar depreciated to a six-month low, falling to 1.4 per US dollar, influenced by declining oil prices, slowing domestic data growth, and expectations of Bank of Canada interest rate cuts. Oil prices, Canada’s largest export, dropped to a five-month low amid persistent US-China trade tensions, rising supply, and an expected increase in US inventories, fueling fears of oversupply and weakening demand, and stripping the currency of key support.

European indices traded mixed on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a gain of 1.99%, Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) dropped by 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.30%. Industrial production in the Eurozone contracted by 1.2% in August 2025 compared to the previous month, a reversal from the upwardly revised 0.5% growth in July, and slightly exceeding market expectations, which had predicted a 1.6% drop. Sweden’s annual inflation rate fell to 0.9% in September 2025 from a six-month high of 1.1% in August, confirming preliminary estimates and remaining below the 2% target set by the Riksbank. Meanwhile, the CPI with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) – the Riksbank’s preferred measure of inflation – rose to 3.1% year-on-year in September, slightly easing from the 3.2% growth in August, which was the highest since January 2024.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.7% to reach $58.3 a barrel on Wednesday, extending losses for a second day and hovering near a five-month low, as persistent US-China trade tensions and increasing supply concerns weigh on sentiment. The International Energy Agency warned that the global oil market could see a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026, intensifying worries about sluggish demand. Expectations of another weekly rise in US crude oil inventories amplified signs of oversupply, which could mark the third consecutive week of inventory growth. Traders are now awaiting official US inventory data for clearer demand signals as the market continues to absorb returning OPEC+ production.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.76%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.84%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.03%.

The Australian dollar weakened below $0.650 on Thursday, reversing the previous session’s gains, after a weaker employment report revived expectations of an RBA rate cut. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the unemployment rate rose more than expected to 4.5%, the highest level in almost four years, while employment increased by only 14,900 people, falling short of the 20,000 prognosis. This data signals a further softening of the labor market, strengthening bets that the Reserve Bank (RBA) may resume cutting rates as early as next month. Investors now price in a 71% chance of policy easing, compared to 40% before the data release. Attention now turns to third-quarter inflation data.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.52% on Thursday. The S&P 500 (US500) dropped by 0.28%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.08% lower. Market sentiment worsened due to a government shutdown, which delayed the release of key economic data. This caused investor focus to shift to the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports, offering insight into the state of the economy, and to AI-driven growth. Shares of Apple, Alphabet, Tesla, and Walmart all lost more than -0.7%, while PepsiCo rose by 4.2% after reporting higher-than-expected revenue and profit. Delta Air Lines jumped 4.3% on optimistic guidance, Nvidia added 1.8% after the US approved billions of dollars in chip exports to the UAE, and Costco climbed 3.1% on strong September sales.

The Canadian dollar weakened to a level above 1.400 per US dollar, hitting its lowest level since early April amid a stronger dollar and lower oil prices. In Canada, attention turns to Friday’s official September jobs report, which is expected to show further labor market softening with the unemployment rate rising from 7.1% to 7.2%. This data could provide new insight into the Bank of Canada’s rate-change prospects.

Mexico’s annual inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month, reaching 3.76% in September 2025, up from 3.57% in August, though still within the central bank’s 2-4% target range. Analysts had anticipated a slightly higher figure of 3.79%. Every month, consumer prices rose by 0.23% after a 0.06% increase in August, compared to market estimates of 0.27%.

European equity markets were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down 0.23%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.60%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.41% on Thursday. European stocks fell from record highs on Thursday. European banks lost over 1%, driven mainly by the drop in HSBC, whose shares fell by 4.5% after announcing a proposal to privatize its 63% owned Hong Kong subsidiary, Hang Seng Bank. Luxury and consumer goods stocks also took a hit: Ferrari plunged 15% after slashing its full-year and 2030 forecasts and cutting its electric vehicle sales targets, while LVMH, Hermès, and L’Oréal fell 2.6%, 2.2%, and 1.7%, respectively. Today, the focus was on France as President Macron pledged to name a new Prime Minister within 48 hours following the resignation of Sebastien Lecornu, amid calls to avoid appointing another centrist ally.

The spot price of silver jumped more than 4% to a record high of $51 per ounce, surpassing the previous peak recorded during the Hunt brothers’ market squeeze in 1980, as strong safe-haven demand met limited supply. The precious metal has surged over 70% this year, outperforming gold. This surge is driven by concerns over US financial risks, the possibility of interest rate cuts, questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence, and unsustainable levels of global deficits and debt. A shortage of freely available silver in the London market is providing further support for prices.

The US natural gas prices dropped to around $3.3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), retreating from an 11-week high following a larger-than-expected inventory build. The US Energy Information Administration reported a storage injection of 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending October 3rd, exceeding the forecast of 77 bcf and slightly above last year’s 78 bcf, though below the five-year average of 94 bcf.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.85%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.29%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.25%.

The Australian economy is performing well with inflation within the central bank’s target range (2-3%) and the labor market remaining resilient, Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary committee on Friday. Household consumption is growing, offsetting weaker government demand and supporting growth. Last month, the Reserve Bank left interest rates at 3.6% after three cuts since February. Bullock noted that services inflation remains “sticky” and highlighted global uncertainty, including US protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and slowing Chinese demand. However, the worst-case scenarios for tariffs have not materialized.