InvestMacro

At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by -0.09%. The S&P 500 (US500) shed -0.53%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by -1.00%. The US stock markets continued their decline on Wednesday, retreating from recent record highs amid mixed corporate reports, conflicting macro data, and rising geopolitical tensions. The technology sector faced the most significant pressure: semiconductor stocks faced a sell-off following reports of restrictions from China, which notably soured overall market sentiment. Macroeconomic statistics failed to pivot the market: moderate inflation and stable consumption only confirmed expectations that the Fed’s current policy will remain unchanged, failing to offset the impact of corporate and political factors. Wells Fargo shares fell by -3.9% after the company missed profit and revenue forecasts. Bank of America shares declined -3.6% despite beating expectations, while Citigroup dropped -0.3% after posting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue figures. JPMorgan shares fell -0.3%, extending a -4.1% slide from the previous session following disappointing quarterly results.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell -0.53%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down -0.19%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by +0.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished Wednesday up +0.46%.

On Thursday, silver prices (XAG) dropped sharply by approximately -6%, falling below $88 per ounce and retreating from recently reached all-time highs. Pressure on prices emerged after US President Donald Trump delayed the introduction of new import duties on critical minerals, reducing short-term geopolitical and trade risks. An additional factor in the decline was the weakened appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets. Demand waned following Trump’s statements that he had received assurances regarding the cessation of executions of protesters in Iran, which eased fears of potential US military intervention and regional escalation.

WTI crude oil prices declined by approximately -3% on Thursday to around $60 per barrel, snapping a five-session winning streak. The correction was triggered by easing geopolitical tensions following comments from US President Donald Trump, which lowered expectations of an imminent military strike on Iran. Additional pressure came from EIA data showing a rise in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, although distillate stocks decreased. Together, these factors intensified profit-taking and accelerated the reversal of quotes after a prolonged rally.

US natural gas prices (XNG) plunged by -10%, approaching their lowest levels since October 17, due to a reduction in gas flows to LNG export facilities. Gas deliveries to LNG plants on Wednesday dropped to a two-month low of 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) due to reduced supplies to Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant and the Freeport LNG plant.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained +1.48%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by -1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed +0.56%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of +0.14% yesterday. On Wednesday, PRC regulators raised minimum margin requirements for stock transactions from 80% to 100%, effectively restricting leverage and highlighting Beijing’s commitment to curbing excessive speculation and systemic risks in capital markets.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) traded virtually unchanged near $0.668, holding close to a two-week low. Australian consumer inflation expectations remained at a high level of 4.6% in January, virtually unchanged from December, indicating persistent concerns over rising prices. Nevertheless, markets remain skeptical of imminent policy tightening: the probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February is estimated at approximately 27%, while it rises to about 76% by May.

The US stock indices managed to recover from an early-morning sell-off on Monday, ending the session higher and setting new records. By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.17%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed up 0.08%. Initial pressure on the market was linked to reports of a criminal investigation launched against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which heightened concerns regarding political pressure on the regulator. The banking sector was most notably affected, with shares of major players declining amid discussions of an initiative to cap credit card interest rates. Nevertheless, overall investor sentiment remained positive due to expectations of strong Q4 corporate earnings, primarily from major banks, and hopes for relatively soft inflation data, which supported risk appetite.

On Monday evening, Trump announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, following repeated warnings of potential military action amid mass protests in the country.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 17.91 per dollar, reaching its highest level since July 2024, driven by a combination of external and internal factors. Support for the peso was provided by the Bank of Mexico’s balanced stance. Following the December rate cut, the regulator emphasized that future decisions depend on macroeconomic data, noting that underlying inflationary pressures persist and require caution. The absence of signals regarding rapid policy easing helped stabilize market expectations and maintain the appeal of the Mexican currency.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.57%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.04%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.14%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the day up 0.16%. Large companies in the industrial and financial services sectors continued their positive momentum: Siemens, Airbus, and Deutsche Bank gained between 1% and 4%. Technology stocks also largely rose, despite ongoing skepticism regarding the fundamental profitability of artificial intelligence amid rising capital expenditures.

The Swiss franc (CHF) is holding near highs seen in the early 2010s due to increased demand for safe-haven currencies. The franc was supported by escalating geopolitical tensions, including harsh mutual warnings between the US and Iran, as well as growing uncertainty surrounding international security following discussions of a potential increase in NATO’s military presence in Greenland. On the domestic front, Switzerland’s macroeconomic situation remains stable: recent inflation data reinforced expectations that the SNB will keep rates at zero in the near term, which did not prevent the franc from maintaining its status as one of the key defensive assets.

WTI crude oil prices recovered intraday losses on Monday to close higher. Prices were supported by escalating tensions in Iran, where large-scale protests increased the risk of disruptions in oil production and exports, despite government claims of a stabilizing situation. Potential strikes and threats to energy infrastructure maintain high market volatility. Supply concerns partially offset expectations of increased production in Venezuela following political changes and preparations for the resumption of exports.

US natural gas prices (XNG) rose by more than 5%, climbing above $3.35 per MMBtu and recovering from a drop to multi-week lows. The recovery was triggered by updated weather prognoses indicating the approach of colder temperatures. Market balance factors also provided support. Gas exports remain near record levels, while domestic production edged down from its December peak. An additional positive signal was a deeper-than-seasonal-norm reduction in inventories, which strengthened investor confidence in the improving fundamental market picture.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.61%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 1.44%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.48%.

In Australia, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 1.7% month-on-month in January 2026 to a three-month low of 92.9 points, amid persistent concerns over interest rate hikes. Commodity-related stocks led the gains, as prices surged due to tensions surrounding Iran and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence.

By the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.55%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.01%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.44%. Investors shifted their focus from technology stocks toward cyclical and defense companies amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the scale and timing of Federal Reserve policy easing, as well as increased attention to the efficiency of capital expenditures in the field of artificial intelligence. The market was pressured by shares of large technology companies focused on AI infrastructure: Nvidia lost 2.2%, Broadcom 3.2%, Micron 3.7%, and Oracle 1.7%. At the same time, the defense sector demonstrated steady growth following President Donald Trump’s statements regarding plans to increase the US military budget to 1.5 trillion dollars in 2027.

According to a consumer expectations survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose to 3.4% in December 2025, compared to 3.2% in each of the two previous months. In contrast, inflation expectations for three and five years remained unchanged at 3.0%, indicating stable long-term inflation projections. Uncertainty regarding inflation increased across all horizons, pointing to a growing divergence in expectations regarding future prices.

The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.12%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.33%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed lower at 0.04%. European stock markets declined moderately on Thursday, taking a pause after hitting record levels earlier in the week. Sentiment was pressured by uncertainty surrounding the future course of ECB policy and persistent geopolitical risks.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 4% and exceeded the 58 dollars per barrel mark, recovering losses from the two previous sessions as the market reassessed short-term supply risks amid a more resilient physical balance in the US. Prices were supported by data showing a 3.8 million barrel reduction in US oil inventories, which significantly exceeded expectations and refuted prognoses of inventory growth, easing concerns about a global supply glut. The rise in quotes was partially limited by an increase in inventories at Cushing, as well as a sharp rise in gasoline and distillate inventories; however, weaker US labor market data supported demand expectations by strengthening the outlook for a more dovish Fed policy.

On Thursday, silver dropped by 5% to 74 dollars per ounce, marking its second consecutive session of decline as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the annual rebalancing of key commodity indices. This is expected to lead to the sale of billions of dollars worth of futures contracts in the coming days. Additional pressure on quotes was exerted by mechanical selling from passive funds adjusting their portfolios to new index weights following silver’s exceptional rally last year. These technical factors intensified the short-term decline despite persistent fundamental demand drivers.

Natural gas prices in the US decreased by approximately 3% to 3.42 dollars/MMBtu amid a moderate increase in daily production and expectations of mild weather for the next two weeks, which is anticipated to limit heating demand below seasonal norms. Although prognosists allow for a brief cold snap and a temporary increase in consumption at the end of January, overall temperatures across the country are predicted to remain above normal values until January 23. Meanwhile, EIA data showed higher actual demand: for the week ending January 2, 114 billion cubic feet of gas were withdrawn from storage, which significantly exceeds both last year’s figure and the five-year average.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.63%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 1.45%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.17%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.29% yesterday. On Friday, Chinese stock markets resumed their growth. In December, consumer price inflation accelerated to its highest level in nearly three years, primarily due to rising food prices, which partially masked persistent underlying deflationary pressure in the economy. At the same time, producer prices declined for the 39th consecutive month, although the rate of decline was the smallest since August 2024, which was perceived by the market as a sign of stabilization.

The unemployment rate in Malaysia in November 2025 decreased to 2.9% compared to 3.2% a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since November 2014. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 4.3% in annual terms to 518.4 thousand, marking a nearly six-year low, while employment rose by 3.1% and reached a record 17.09 million people.