Archive for Financial News – Page 22

Gold is Back in the Black: Geopolitics Dictates Conditions Again

Gold, on Wednesday, returned above the key level of 5000 USD per ounce and has already approached 5067 USD. The precious metal continues to grow after jumping more than 6% in the previous session, marking the strongest daily increase since 2008. The quotes were supported by purchases following a decline after a sharp correction at the beginning of the week.

Geopolitical risks gave an additional impetus to the precious metal. After US forces shot down an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, demand for defensive assets intensified. At the same time, President Donald Trump stated that diplomatic contacts continue, and the White House confirmed the US-Iran talks scheduled for Friday.

Expectations of rapid Fed rate cuts have eased somewhat since the nomination of Kevin Warsh to head the Fed. Nevertheless, the markets are still pricing in two rate cuts – probably in the middle of the year and later in 2026.

Separately, it is noted that the publication of key US labour market statistics, including JOLTS data and the monthly employment report, will be postponed due to the partial government shutdown. The House voted on Tuesday on the Senate-approved stopgap budget.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart for gold, after completing a powerful uptrend and reaching a peak around 5600, the market entered a sharp correction. The decline was impulsive, as evidenced by the expansion of Bollinger Bands – a sign of panic selling. The minimum was noted in the 4440–4450 zone, from where the technical rebound began. Current prices are recovering but remain below the Bollinger median line. The structure is still corrective, with increased volatility and a predominance of downside risks.

On the H1 chart, after a landslide downward movement, a base and a sequence of higher minima have formed – local stabilisation. The price is trading in a narrow upward channel and gradually moving towards the 5050-5100 resistance zone. However, the recovery looks technical. As long as the quotes are below key resistance and the median line of the higher timeframe, the rebound remains vulnerable to a resumption of selling.

Conclusion

In summary, gold’s sharp recovery is primarily a technical rebound from oversold conditions, supercharged by a sudden flare-up in geopolitical tensions. While the move is significant, the technical structure across timeframes suggests it remains a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend, not a confirmed reversal. The rally is vulnerable as long as prices trade below key higher-timeframe resistance. The fundamental landscape remains mixed, with delayed US data creating uncertainty and revised, but still present, Fed easing expectations providing a floor. Near-term direction will hinge on the evolution of Middle East diplomacy and gold’s ability to breach critical technical ceilings.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

03 Feb

US natural gas prices collapsed by 21%. The RBA raised its interest rate by 0.25%

By JustMarkets

On Monday, trading on the US stock market concluded with solid gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.05%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.56%. The growth was primarily driven by tech and growth stocks: Apple shares jumped over 3%, AMD rose nearly 5%, and Micron added over 5%. Alphabet and Amazon also traded firmly ahead of their earnings reports later this week. Oracle saw a slight correction following its recent rally linked to a $50 billion capital-raising plan, while Nvidia declined by approximately 2% amid ongoing uncertainty regarding its frozen $100 billion investment in OpenAI.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 1.05%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.67%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.31%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.15%. In the first half of the day, European stocks were under pressure due to a sharp crash in precious metals prices, which led to increased margin calls on key derivative exchanges. However, fears of systemic liquidity issues did not materialize, and the market reversed upward, showing growth across all sectors. Banking stocks were among the leaders, with Santander, UniCredit, ING, and Nordea gaining between 2-3%.

During Monday’s Asian session, silver quotes (XAG) dropped to $77 per ounce following Friday’s 30% collapse – the largest one-day decline in history, which almost entirely wiped out the year-to-date gains. Just last Thursday, silver had hit an all-time high exceeding $120 per ounce. The sharp market reversal followed reports of President Donald Trump’s intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, a move market participants viewed as a signal for a more hawkish monetary policy. Despite the current decline, silver continues to find some support from a structural supply deficit and the “debasement trade,” where investors reallocate capital from currencies and bonds into physical assets amid concerns over rising government debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and doubts about Fed independence.

WTI crude oil prices fell by more than 4.5% on Monday, dropping to $62.2 per barrel, marking the sharpest one-day decline in over six months. Pressure intensified after President Trump stated that Washington is in talks with Iran, easing fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Iranian officials also signaled a readiness for dialogue, further calming investors who had priced in conflict risks. The price drop was exacerbated by a broader sell-off in commodity markets, particularly in metals.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) plummeted by 21% to $3.42 per MMBtu, completely erasing Friday’s 11% gain. This came after short-term weather prognoses shifted toward milder conditions, reducing expected demand. The market has been highly volatile; the February contract hit a three-year high last week due to storm-related production disruptions and heating demand. However, updated expectations from NOAA indicate above-normal temperatures across much of the US through mid-month, likely curbing demand for heating and power generation.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.25%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 1.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 2.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.02%.

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.70 on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), at its first monetary policy meeting of 2026, unanimously raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, fully meeting market expectations. This marked the first hike since November 2023 and highlighted a resurgence in inflationary pressures that intensified in late 2025 due to rising service sector costs and a tight labor market. The RBA noted that inflation is likely to remain above the 2-3% target range for some time, reflecting resilient economic dynamics.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,976.44 +37.41 (+0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,407.66 +515.19 (+1.05%)

DAX (DE40) 24,797.52 +258.71 (+1.05%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,341.56 +118.02 (+1.15%)

USD Index 97.58 +0.59% (+0.60%)

News feed for: 2026.02.03

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
Australia RBA Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 Feb

What goes up must come down…

By ForexTime

$15 trillion erased from silver/gold prices on Friday
Central banks and geopolitics back in focus
Bitcoin falls below $75,000 for first time in 10 months
NFP report on Friday may rock global markets

More than $15 trillion was erased from the value of gold and silver last Friday.

This monstrous amount was equivalent to half the size of the entire US economy.

Silver nosedived almost 40%
Gold tumbled nearly 15%

Precious metals have kicked off the new week under renewed pressure already flashing red this morning:

XAUUSD: ↓ 5%
XAGUSD: ↓7%

The selloff was triggered by Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair.

Opinions remain divided over whether Warsh will align with Trump’s view on how the Fed should be run, given his past status as an “inflation hawk’.

Traders are still pricing a less than 40% chance that the Fed cuts rates by April.

WHAT COULD MOVE SILVER/GOLD THIS WEEK:

US Partial government shutdown

Over the weekend, the US government entered a partial shutdown adding another layer of uncertainty to current developments.

This negative development may toss the Fed back into the wilderness as the absence of clear data complicates monetary policy planning.

So, another round of extended delays may force the Fed to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach on rates as it “drives in the fog”.

Geopolitical flashpoints

Last week, Trump threatened to attack Iran while saying he would impose tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba. Should tensions escalate, this may offer much-needed support to precious metals facing a bout of profit-taking and dollar strength.

US January NFP report –

The incoming NFP report could shape the metals outlook for February as discussed in the week ahead report.

Bitcoin slips to fresh 10-month low

Bitcoin tumbled to a fresh 10-month low in Asia trading on Monday, dipping below $75,000.

The “OG” crypto shed fell 11% in January, marking its fourth straight monthly decline — the longest losing streak since 2018…

The overall unrest across global markets and the absence of buyers have contributed to the recent declines.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded three consecutive months of outflows while technical indicators signal the rise of bearish pressures.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

BULLISH: A move back above the 50-day SMA at $87,500 could signal an incline toward $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000.

BEARISH: Sustained weakness below $77,500 could send prices toward $70,000 and lower.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals

02 Feb

Donald Trump appoints a new successor for the Fed chair. Precious metals hit by sell-off

By JustMarkets

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with a decline. By the close of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index fell by 0.36% (-0.50% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.43% (+0.23% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.28% (-0.31% for the week). Market pressure was driven by rising Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar after President Donald Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as the successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors viewed this move as a signal toward a more hawkish and cautious monetary easing trajectory, triggering a rise in long-term bond yields and profit-taking in rate-sensitive assets following a strong January rally.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) retreated to 1.355 per US dollar. The weakness was linked to softer domestic economic growth signals and a rebounding US dollar, which partially offset January’s gains. Data showed that Canada’s real GDP remained unchanged in November, while the manufacturing sector recorded its third contraction in four months, indicating instability in underlying economic dynamics despite limited contributions from the service sector. This reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain a cautious approach and refrain from tightening policy.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to above 17.4 per US dollar, correcting after a strong monthly gain. Pressure on the currency intensified amid US dollar strengthening and a revision of interest rate expectations, which reduced the attractiveness of carry trade operations. The key trigger was the dollar’s recovery following Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the next Fed Chair. The market interpreted this as a signal for a more predictable and disciplined monetary policy, leading to higher US yields and increasing the opportunity cost of holding peso positions.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.94% (-1.41% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.68% (-0.05% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.66% (+1.79% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.51% (+0.79% for the week). The indices were supported by fresh economic data and corporate reports. Preliminary figures showed the German economy grew by +0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, exceeding expectations after stagnation in Q3 and a -0.2% contraction in Q2. Germany’s inflation rate rose to 2.1% in January 2026 from a December low of 1.8%, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.0%.

On Friday, silver prices (XAG) plummeted by more than 25%, dropping to $84 per ounce following aggressive profit-taking that triggered a broad pullback in precious metal prices. Geopolitical tensions remained high after President Trump signed an executive order on tariffs for goods from countries supplying oil to Cuba, increasing pressure on Mexico, and called for Iran to enter nuclear negotiations, while Tehran promised a swift response. On the monetary front, market attention focused on Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the new Fed Chair, ending months of speculation regarding future US policy.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) surged 7%, reaching $4.10 per MMBtu, driven by increased flows to LNG export plants, including the likely restart of a train at the Freeport LNG plant in Texas. Deliveries for LNG production grew for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 17.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) after recently falling to an annual low of 11.5 bcf/d due to winter storms. The price increase occurred despite expectations for milder weather and lower heating demand, as well as the recovery of production from previously frozen wells. Weather is expected to remain colder than normal until February 14, and futures showed a nearly 14% gain in January after a 23% drop the previous month.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.56% for the trading week, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased 0.49%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.02%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive 5-day result of 0.27%.

China’s official Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 points in January 2026, compared to 50.1 in December, missing market expectations of 50. The data indicate a loss of momentum at the start of the year: weak domestic and foreign demand, along with cautious business sentiment, continue to hinder recovery amid persistent structural economic issues.

Australian 10-year government bond yields rose toward 4.81%, remaining near a more than two-year high as markets increasingly priced in rate hikes ahead of the RBA meeting. The probability of a rate hike on February 3 is currently estimated at 75%, with market participants expecting another tightening by August. This was supported by a series of strong macro data points: December inflation was higher than expectations and remains far from the 2–3% target range, unemployment fell unexpectedly, job vacancies grew at the fastest pace since February 2022, and house price growth accelerated in January, highlighting economic resilience. Against this backdrop, analysts do not rule out that 10-year yields could briefly exceed 5% in the short term.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,939.03 −29.98 (−0.43%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,892.47 −179.09 (−0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 24,538.81 +229.35 (+0.94%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,223.54 +51.78 (+0.51%)

USD Index 97.15 −0.86% (−0.90%)

News feed for: 2026.02.02

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 Feb

USDJPY Realises Correction: BOJ Policy Weighs on Yen

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USDJPY rose to 154.98 on Monday, with the yen continuing to fall. Pressure on the currency increased after statements by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Over the weekend, the politician noted that a weak yen could be a significant advantage for export industries, indicating that Takaichi continues to favour a softer exchange rate. She later clarified that her comments concerned the need to build an economy resistant to currency fluctuations.

On Friday, the yen lost about 1% against the dollar after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman. The market regarded this choice as more “hawkish”, supporting the dollar and adding to the pressure on the yen.

An additional factor of uncertainty remains the upcoming extraordinary vote in the lower house of parliament on 8 February. Takaichi’s ruling party is expected to strengthen its position and advance expansive fiscal policies, increasing the risk of higher borrowing. Against this background, both Japanese government bonds and the yen were under pressure last month.

Expectations of fiscal stimulus and discussion of tax breaks increase the burden on public finances and restrain demand for the national currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, a corrective rebound follows after a sharp drop from the 158.50–159.00 area. The price recovered from a low in the 152.00 zone and is testing the 155.50 area, but remains below medium-term resistance. The structure still looks corrective inside the broader downward phase until the quotes settle above 156.50–157.00.

The H1 chart shows that after a sharp decline, the pair entered a recovery phase and has been sequentially updating local maxima. The price climbed above the 153.26–153.88 zone and is trading along the upper end of the Bollinger Bands, indicating continued near-term momentum. A slowdown is observed near the 155.50–155.60 level, with a possible pause or pullback within the ongoing correction.

Conclusion

In summary, the USDJPY rebound is primarily a technical correction within a broader bearish context for the yen. The move is exacerbated by political commentary favouring a weaker currency and reinforced by a hawkish Fed appointment. While near-term momentum persists, the pair faces significant resistance ahead. The fundamental backdrop of anticipated expansive fiscal policy in Japan continues to apply structural pressure on the yen, suggesting the current recovery may be limited in scope before the larger downtrend potentially resumes.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel with a rise by 669 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-39,374 contracts), Copper (-4,185 contracts), Silver (-1,511 contracts), Platinum (-1,202 contracts) and with Palladium (-204 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Steel is only price gainer for Metals Markets that saw a sell-off this week

The metals markets were overall lower on the week as the metals saw a steep and sharp selloff to close out the week. Steel was the only market that saw a weekly gain as Steel rose by over 5.50% and is now up by 9.30% in the past 30 days, and higher by approximately 40% in the past 90 days.

Copper was lower by -0.25% on the past five days, followed by Gold which saw a shortfall by -2.85%. Palladium dropped by -16.5% and Silver saw a strong decline lower by -18.86% on the week. Platinum was the biggest loser on the week with a sharp -22.45% decline.

Over the past 30 days, the metals markets have all been higher, led by Silver which has been up by 30.59%, while in the past 90 days all of these markets have been at least 27% higher, with Silver up by 88.29%, Platinum up by 45.87%, Palladium higher by 40.39%, and Steel, which has risen by 40.22%. Gold has seen a 28.95% gain in the past 90 days while Copper has risen by 27.29% in that timeframe.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Palladium (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (42 percent) and Platinum (46 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (71.1 percent)
Silver (42.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (44.0 percent)
Copper (78.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (82.2 percent)
Platinum (45.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (48.8 percent)
Palladium (96.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (97.8 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (96.5 percent)

Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-23 percent), Silver (-17 percent) and Copper (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-11.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.6 percent)
Silver (-16.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-26.0 percent)
Copper (-15.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.2 percent)
Platinum (-23.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.9 percent)
Palladium (-1.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.0 percent)
Steel (17.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.0 percent)

Individual Markets: (Weekly Tuesday Closes)

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 205,396 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -39,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 244,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.6	19.7	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	70.5	4.1
– Net Position:	205,396	-248,285	42,889
– Gross Longs:	252,100	96,200	62,677
– Gross Shorts:	46,704	344,485	19,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	36.7	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	10.5	7.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	28.6	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	56.7	9.0
– Net Position:	23,703	-44,056	20,353
– Gross Longs:	43,475	44,788	34,444
– Gross Shorts:	19,772	88,844	14,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	52.1	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	13.9	8.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	31.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	54.9	3.3
– Net Position:	48,390	-64,812	16,422
– Gross Longs:	101,400	87,989	25,663
– Gross Shorts:	53,010	152,801	9,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	14.6	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	12.1	12.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,922 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.8	26.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	53.7	3.9
– Net Position:	13,922	-22,026	8,104
– Gross Longs:	36,419	20,654	11,173
– Gross Shorts:	22,497	42,680	3,069
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	49.7	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	16.7	32.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.7	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	43.5	6.5
– Net Position:	684	-2,840	2,156
– Gross Longs:	9,436	5,487	3,396
– Gross Shorts:	8,752	8,327	1,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	0.3	94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-3.1	27.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	57.6	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	90.7	0.5
– Net Position:	12,340	-12,763	423
– Gross Longs:	14,856	22,286	635
– Gross Shorts:	2,516	35,049	212
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-18.6	32.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

01 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (65,833 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (45,473 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (14,903 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (6,123 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,408 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (1,559 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-70,511 contracts), the Fed Funds (-38,218 contracts), and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,649 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Year Bonds lead Weekly Price Performance

The bond markets this week were led higher by the 5-Year Bonds which saw an edge higher by 0.21%, followed by the 2-Year Bonds, which inched up by 0.18%. The SOFR 1-Month was higher by 0.06%, followed by the SOFR 3-Months, which edged up by 0.04%.

The 10-Year Bonds were virtually unchanged at a -0.01% decline, followed by the Fed Funds which dipped by -0.03%. The US Treasury bond was the biggest loser on the week with a -0.91% shortfall.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (81 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (69 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 10-Year Bonds (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (26.2 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (28 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (44.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (26.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (25.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (50.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (58.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (48.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (46.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (80.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (75.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (68.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (74.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (41.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (29.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (41 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bond (13 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-55.1 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-22 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-55.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (12.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-6.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (3.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (31.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (13.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (6.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (41.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (19.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-21.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-15.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -116,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -38,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	61.7	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	57.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-116,029	94,933	21,096
– Gross Longs:	416,344	1,448,086	51,172
– Gross Shorts:	532,373	1,353,153	30,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	58.4	90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.1	54.2	10.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -594,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -595,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	57.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	52.9	0.3
– Net Position:	-594,042	593,783	259
– Gross Longs:	1,746,386	7,681,337	41,889
– Gross Shorts:	2,340,428	7,087,554	41,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	70.3	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.7	21.7	0.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -208,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 65,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -273,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	66.5	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	53.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-208,039	208,128	-89
– Gross Longs:	325,816	1,084,095	158
– Gross Shorts:	533,855	875,967	247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	58.5	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.4	-41.5	2.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,218,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,225,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	74.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	50.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,218,999	1,097,684	121,315
– Gross Longs:	766,638	3,420,919	248,233
– Gross Shorts:	1,985,637	2,323,235	126,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	73.4	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.2	-2.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,091,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,136,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	81.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	53.1	4.4
– Net Position:	-2,091,046	1,946,525	144,521
– Gross Longs:	570,821	5,546,181	446,080
– Gross Shorts:	2,661,867	3,599,656	301,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	71.5	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-10.0	-5.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -726,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -70,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -655,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	77.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	65.9	6.3
– Net Position:	-726,151	650,764	75,387
– Gross Longs:	668,746	4,400,390	434,438
– Gross Shorts:	1,394,897	3,749,626	359,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	52.2	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	17.8	-23.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -229,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,282 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	79.5	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	66.3	12.5
– Net Position:	-229,874	345,568	-115,694
– Gross Longs:	298,101	2,080,438	211,533
– Gross Shorts:	527,975	1,734,870	327,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	66.8	1.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	0.1	-58.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	75.5	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	82.1	6.8
– Net Position:	-8,167	-119,909	128,076
– Gross Longs:	171,238	1,385,781	252,582
– Gross Shorts:	179,405	1,505,690	124,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	9.1	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-11.4	1.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -273,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -258,822 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	83.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	71.4	8.4
– Net Position:	-273,471	266,980	6,491
– Gross Longs:	143,923	1,812,928	188,177
– Gross Shorts:	417,394	1,545,948	181,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	44.4	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	16.3	-20.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

01 Feb

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Weekly Changes led by Natural Gas & WTI Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Natural Gas & WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (29,884 contracts) with WTI Crude (18,190 contracts), Gasoline (8,433 contracts), Heating Oil (7,791 contracts) and Brent Oil (402 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was the Bloomberg Commodity Index with a drop by -294 contracts on the week.

Energy Markets Price Performance led by Natural Gas

The energy markets this week were all higher in price performance and led by Natural Gas, which rose by approximately 21%. Heating Oil was next up with a 9.14% gain in the past five days, followed by WTI Crude Oil which rose by 7.53%, and then Brent Oil which rose by 7.36%. Gasoline was higher by 4.61% on the week and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 1.83% rise on the week.

All these markets are higher over the past 30 days, with Natural Gas up by approximately 40%, followed by Heating Oil, WTI Crude Oil, and Brent Oil all seeing gains by more than 20% in the past 30 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Heating Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Index (78.3 percent) and Heating Oil (74.9 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, WTI Crude (18.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Natural Gas (20.9 percent) and Brent Oil (21.6 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (18.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (12.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (21.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (21.1 percent)
Natural Gas (20.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (0.0 percent)
Gasoline (74.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (65.3 percent)
Heating Oil (74.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (64.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (79.7 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (72.1 percent) and WTI Crude (13.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-24.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-14.9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (13.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (6.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-14.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-13.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-24.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-60.9 percent)
Gasoline (3.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-24.1 percent)
Heating Oil (11.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-5.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (72.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (74.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 96,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	41.3	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	47.0	2.5
– Net Position:	96,982	-115,048	18,066
– Gross Longs:	295,247	840,875	68,113
– Gross Shorts:	198,265	955,923	50,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	81.6	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-13.0	0.8

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	37.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	22.7	2.3
– Net Position:	-41,748	40,026	1,722
– Gross Longs:	57,294	100,693	7,911
– Gross Shorts:	99,042	60,667	6,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	80.5	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	16.7	-4.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -163,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 29,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -193,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	37.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	27.6	2.5
– Net Position:	-163,606	152,767	10,839
– Gross Longs:	216,112	601,095	51,823
– Gross Shorts:	379,718	448,328	40,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	80.3	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	24.8	-3.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 79,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	47.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	65.7	3.8
– Net Position:	79,213	-86,834	7,621
– Gross Longs:	118,536	218,244	25,419
– Gross Shorts:	39,323	305,078	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	25.0	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.2	1.7

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	46.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	57.0	7.3
– Net Position:	23,835	-41,663	17,828
– Gross Longs:	67,848	175,380	45,533
– Gross Shorts:	44,013	217,043	27,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	26.9	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-5.1	-8.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	70.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	67.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-6,075	5,405	670
– Gross Longs:	50,840	132,086	705
– Gross Shorts:	56,915	126,681	35
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	20.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.1	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.1	-73.5	3.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

01 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (36,733 contracts) with Corn (20,033 contracts), Soybean Meal (14,496 contracts), Wheat (14,340 contracts), Sugar (10,595 contracts), Lean Hogs (9,539 contracts), Coffee (2,971 contracts) and Cocoa (2,372 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-13,143 contracts), Soybeans (-698 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-371 contracts) also seeing slightly lower bets on the week.

Live Cattle lead price performance this week

The soft commodities price performance this week was led by Live Cattle, which rose by 1.34 percent, followed by Wheat, which increased by 1.06 percent in the last five days. Corn was the only other market that saw a rise with a 0.34 percent gain.

On the downside, Coffee led the decreases on the week with a -5.58 percent decline, followed by Soybean Meal, which fell by -3.35 percent, and Sugar, which also fell a similar -3.25 percent. Cotton saw a shortfall of -1.36 percent while Soybean Oil (-0.95%), Lean Hogs (-0.90%), and Cocoa (-0.86%) all fell by just under one percent. Soybeans were virtually unchanged with a -0.13 percent decline on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (73 percent) and Soybean Oil (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (66 percent), Soybeans (56 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (2 percent), Sugar (7 percent) and Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.2 percent)
Sugar (6.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.6 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.0 percent)
Soybeans (56.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (24.3 percent)
Live Cattle (65.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (66.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (73.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (66.3 percent)
Cotton (15.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.7 percent)
Cocoa (2.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (34.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (21.6 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (43 percent) and Lean Hogs (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (13 percent) and Coffee (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-26 percent), Cocoa (-17 percent) and Soybean Meal (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.2 percent)
Sugar (-2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.9 percent)
Coffee (2.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.0 percent)
Soybeans (-30.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-35.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-8.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-18.6 percent)
Live Cattle (12.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (-0.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (-16.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.3 percent)
Wheat (-25.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-57.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	45.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	42.3	9.5
– Net Position:	-31,671	52,691	-21,020
– Gross Longs:	341,576	774,514	140,713
– Gross Shorts:	373,247	721,823	161,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.9	65.2	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	6.5	3.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	56.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	38.7	8.5
– Net Position:	-167,753	176,753	-9,000
– Gross Longs:	153,423	565,901	76,260
– Gross Shorts:	321,176	389,148	85,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	94.2	8.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.0	-0.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	40.3	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	59.8	3.6
– Net Position:	32,734	-34,082	1,348
– Gross Longs:	57,118	70,487	7,625
– Gross Shorts:	24,384	104,569	6,277
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.2	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-3.3	9.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	51.7	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	56.0	8.5
– Net Position:	57,431	-37,074	-20,357
– Gross Longs:	167,074	444,216	52,360
– Gross Shorts:	109,643	481,290	72,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	44.1	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.0	31.6	-7.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 36,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	46.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	53.8	4.4
– Net Position:	41,276	-45,616	4,340
– Gross Longs:	139,537	310,531	33,483
– Gross Shorts:	98,261	356,147	29,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	35.1	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.7	-43.2	32.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	51.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	52.5	5.5
– Net Position:	-8,294	-8,069	16,363
– Gross Longs:	115,053	271,984	45,638
– Gross Shorts:	123,347	280,053	29,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	72.2	35.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.9	11.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 88,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	32.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	56.2	12.2
– Net Position:	88,978	-77,526	-11,452
– Gross Longs:	147,788	109,330	29,206
– Gross Shorts:	58,810	186,856	40,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.6	27.8	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-17.4	4.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 65,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	31.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	47.9	8.9
– Net Position:	65,936	-57,624	-8,312
– Gross Longs:	149,861	113,367	23,425
– Gross Shorts:	83,925	170,991	31,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.2	29.9	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.1	-23.6	-15.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	48.9	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	38.2	3.8
– Net Position:	-38,967	38,648	319
– Gross Longs:	96,472	177,241	14,078
– Gross Shorts:	135,439	138,593	13,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.9	83.6	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.9	14.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -15,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	48.2	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	37.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-15,502	16,293	-791
– Gross Longs:	27,452	72,066	9,984
– Gross Shorts:	42,954	55,773	10,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	97.8	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	14.0	19.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	36.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	22.1	5.7
– Net Position:	-79,390	77,363	2,027
– Gross Longs:	119,821	195,721	32,444
– Gross Shorts:	199,211	118,358	30,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	65.1	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.9	24.8	24.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

30 Jan

Week Ahead: Not every glitter is gold…

By ForexTime

Silver ↑ 40% since start of 2025
83% correlation with gold over past 2 years
Supported by industrial demand, ETFs and weaker USD
Over past year US NFP triggered moves of ↑ 1.5% & ↓ 2.0%
Bloomberg FX model – 70% – ($100.22 – $131.27)

Precious metals are taking a beating as the dollar strengthens on reports that Trump may nominate Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair.

Nevertheless, Silver remains the champion in the commodity space, gaining 400% year-to-date versus golds 17% return.

Note: Although gold/silver crashed yesterday, most losses have been clawed back with bulls greedily eyeing fresh records.

Precious metals have been boosted by geopolitical risk, speculative demand from Chinese investors, ETF inflows and a broadly weaker dollar.

But silver is also drawing strength from rising industrial demand in the face of supply deficits.

These solid fundamental forces point to further gains for silver which has moved in tandem with gold 83% of the time in any given 5-day period over the past 2 years.

Before we cover themes that could impact silver, here is a list of events for the week ahead:

Sunday, 1st February

OIL: OPEC+ ministers meeting

Monday, 2nd February

CNY: China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
EUR: Germany Retail Sales (Dec)
GBP: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI, Nationwide house prices
USD: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan); ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan)

Tuesday, 3rd February

AUD: RBA Interest Rate Decision
FRA40: France Inflation Rate (Jan)
MXN: Mexico Business Confidence (Jan)
USD: JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)
WTI/Brent: US API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Jan 30)

Wednesday, 4th February

CNY: China RatingDog Services PMI (Jan)
EUR: Eurozone Inflation Rate (Jan)
USD: US ISM Services PMI (Jan); ADP Employment Change (Jan)
WTI/Brent: US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Jan 30); EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (w/e Jan 30)
NAS100: Alphabet earnings, US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Thursday, 5th February

AUD: Balance of Trade (Dec)
GBP: BoE Interest Rate Decision; MPC Meeting Minutes; UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Jan)
EUR: ECB Interest Rate Decision
MXN: BoM Interest Rate Decision
US500: Amazon earnings

Friday, 6th February

EUR: Germany Balance of Trade (Dec); Germany Industrial Production (Dec); France Balance of Trade (Dec)
CAD: Canada Unemployment Rate (Jan); Canada Ivey PMI s.a. (Jan)
USD: US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan); Unemployment Rate (Jan); Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)

There are a couple of high-level themes that may shape the outlook for Silver as we enter February:

Note: President Donald Trump will announce his nominee for Federal Chair on Friday 30^th January.

According to Polymarket, there is an 83% chance that he will pick former Fed governor Kevin Warsh which is a long-term critic of ultra-loose monetary policy.

So, this raises questions about whether he will yield to Trump and cut rates or reassert policy discipline.

1) Geopolitical risk

In the latest developments, Trump has threatened to attack Iran while saying he will impose tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba. He has also threatened to decertify all aircrafts made in Canada and threatened 50% tariffs on those planes.

Mounting geopolitical tensions may accelerate the flight to safety, boosting safe-haven assets like Silver.

2) US January NFP report

The incoming NFP report could shape the metals outlook for February.

What are the market forecasts for the January NFP report?

78,000 jobs added in January (higher than the 50,000 added in December)
Unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.4%
Average hourly earnings to slip to 0.3% month-on-month
Average hourly earnings to slip 3.6% year-on-year (3.8% in January)

Traders are currently pricing a 15% probability of a 25bp Fed cut by March with this jumping to only 30% by April.

Silver prices could push higher if a soft NFP report weakens the dollar and supports the case for lower US rates.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report could weaken silver, especially if this results in a stronger dollar and reduced expectations over lower US rates.

3) Technical forces

Silver is aggressively bullish on the daily charts prices above the 21, 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is well above 70 – indicating that prices are extremely overbought.

A solid breakout above $121.664 may open doors to fresh all-time highs at $125 and $131.27 – the upper bound of the Bloomberg FX model.
Sustained weakness below $112.50 may encourage a decline toward $106.72 and $100.

Article by ForexTime

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