InvestMacro

On Wednesday, the US stocks closed mixed as investors balanced contradictory macroeconomic signals against expectations of a possible Fed policy easing. By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.94%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped by 0.34%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.16%. JOLTS data indicated a notable contraction in job openings and a cooling of labor demand, while the ADP report showed a moderate recovery in private sector hiring, and the growth in the ISM Services PMI confirmed a scenario of a slowing but still resilient economy. At the corporate level, the market was pressured by a decline in banking stocks: JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America shares fell by more than 2%, which was one of the reasons for the Dow’s weakness. At the same time, the technology sector appeared more stable – NVIDIA rose by 1%, and Alphabet gained 2.5%, supporting the Nasdaq.

European stock indices ended Wednesday’s trading with slight declines, taking a pause after the recent strong rally amid the ongoing reassessment of the ECB’s monetary policy prospects. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.92%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a decrease of 0.04%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.29%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.74%. Recent data showed that Eurozone inflation slowed to 2% in December, as expected, while core inflation fell more than projections, strengthening expectations that the ECB may proceed with rate cuts during the year. Defense companies were among the top gainers amid rising geopolitical tensions related to White House statements regarding Greenland and the US seizure of a Russian tanker that violated the blockade of Venezuela.

On Thursday, silver dropped below the $77 per ounce mark, continuing a correction after the recent rapid rally to historic highs. The weakening of bullish momentum coincided with a strengthening of the US dollar and mixed macroeconomic signals from the US, which failed to provide markets with a clear direction regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Currently, market participants estimate the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the next meeting at nearly 90%, although expectations for several rate cuts in the second half of the year remain priced in. This combination is curbing demand for precious metals in the short term, increasing investors’ inclination to take profits after the sharp rise in prices.

The US natural gas prices rose by more than 4% to $3.50 per MMBtu, rebounding from a 10-week low reached on January 6, amid a reduction in production and a revision of weather prognoses toward colder conditions and increased heating demand. Average production in the Lower 48 states in early January decreased to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day from the December record of 109.7 billion. Additional market support came from a rise in LNG exports: deliveries to the eight largest export terminals increased to a record 18.6 billion cubic feet per day.

Asian markets traded without a unified dynamic yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.06%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.45%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.94%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.15%. At the start of Thursday’s trading, Hong Kong stocks declined by 1.4%, continuing a fall for the second consecutive session. Pressure was intensified by profit-taking after the market reached a seven-week high earlier in the week, as well as growing caution ahead of Friday’s release of December inflation data from China (CPI and PPI). An additional negative factor was the geopolitical tension following Beijing’s decision to ban the export of dual-use goods to Japan in response to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan. However, the decline was partially mitigated by optimistic expectations from Goldman Sachs, which predicts steady growth for Chinese stocks this year due to increased corporate profits related to the development of artificial intelligence.

The New Zealand dollar held near the $0.576 mark, remaining in a sideways range throughout the week as investors balance external risks and domestic monetary expectations. On the external side, sentiment continues to be pressured by geopolitical uncertainty: political events in Venezuela following the removal of Nicolás Maduro, as well as rising tension between China and Japan, maintain a cautious approach to risk currencies, including the NZD. In the domestic context, the position of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains a key anchor for the exchange rate. The regulator signaled that the easing cycle, in which rates were cut by 225 bps, likely concluded last year, while also dispelling expectations for an imminent policy tightening.

Following Monday’s results, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.23%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.64%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.69%. On Monday, the rally in the US stock market continued, with the energy and financial sectors providing the main support to the indices. Investors perceived the US arrest of the Venezuelan leader more as a potential opportunity for future investment in the country’s oil industry than as a factor for immediate geopolitical escalation. Chevron shares jumped more than 5% due to expectations of the company expanding its presence in Venezuela, while oil refining companies rose on prospects of increased heavy oil supply.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.38 per US dollar, losing some of its recent gains after reaching its highest level since July. Pressure on the currency intensified due to the strengthening of the dollar caused by the geopolitical situation, specifically the US seizure of the President of Venezuela, which triggered an increase in demand for the dollar and raised concerns about the prospects for Venezuelan oil. Speculation regarding production and an uneven market reaction strengthened doubts about the stability of oil prices, which is a key support factor for the Canadian currency. Furthermore, the slowdown in economic growth in Canada in Q4 weakened the arguments for tight monetary policy, and global oil market expectations for 2026 suggest a supply surplus and moderate demand, further limiting the potential for the Canadian dollar to strengthen.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to a level above 18 per US dollar, as the sharp rise in the dollar caused by US military actions in Venezuela outweighed domestic currency support factors. The increased demand for the dollar triggered pressure on regional currencies, and the easing of the Bank of Mexico policy in late December reduced the yield advantage that had previously supported the peso after strong growth in 2025. This pressure is partially offset by an improvement in the external position and a transition to a current account surplus in mid-2025, which creates a floor for a sharper devaluation.
Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.34%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.20%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a positive 0.54%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) weakened to a level of around 0.795 per US dollar, remaining close to highs not seen since 2011, amid rising geopolitical tensions following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Uncertainty in the global economy related to US trade policy, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts, intensified demand for safe-haven assets despite the weakness of the franc. Investors remain focused on the upcoming domestic inflation data to be released on January 8: a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index is expected in monthly terms, with a growth of only 0.1% in annual terms. In December, the Swiss National Bank kept rates at 0%, and most analysts do not expect changes in 2026.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose above 1720 dollars per ounce, approaching a weekly high, amid rising geopolitical tensions in Venezuela following the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The events stimulated demand for precious metals as haven assets and also supported palladium due to its key role in catalytic converters for gasoline engines. Demand is also supported by expectations of the EU easing the ban on internal combustion engines by 2035 while maintaining strict environmental standards, and the launch of palladium futures in China, which increases liquidity and provides hedging opportunities.
Asian markets rose in synchronization yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.97%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.57%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.01%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.672 dollars, remaining near its highest level since October 2024, amid an improvement in global risk sentiment and a weakening of the US dollar. Investor attention is shifting to the publication of Australian inflation data for November, which is expected on Wednesday and is projected to show a moderate slowdown in price pressure. This data could prove key for the next steps of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had previously allowed for the possibility of a rate hike if inflationary risks persist.

Following Monday’s results, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.23%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.64%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.69%. On Monday, the rally in the US stock market continued, with the energy and financial sectors providing the main support to the indices. Investors perceived the US arrest of the Venezuelan leader more as a potential opportunity for future investment in the country’s oil industry than as a factor for immediate geopolitical escalation. Chevron shares jumped more than 5% due to expectations of the company expanding its presence in Venezuela, while oil refining companies rose on prospects of increased heavy oil supply.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.38 per US dollar, losing some of its recent gains after reaching its highest level since July. Pressure on the currency intensified due to the strengthening of the dollar caused by the geopolitical situation, specifically the US seizure of the President of Venezuela, which triggered an increase in demand for the dollar and raised concerns about the prospects for Venezuelan oil. Speculation regarding production and an uneven market reaction strengthened doubts about the stability of oil prices, which is a key support factor for the Canadian currency. Furthermore, the slowdown in economic growth in Canada in Q4 weakened the arguments for tight monetary policy, and global oil market expectations for 2026 suggest a supply surplus and moderate demand, further limiting the potential for the Canadian dollar to strengthen.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to a level above 18 per US dollar, as the sharp rise in the dollar caused by US military actions in Venezuela outweighed domestic currency support factors. The increased demand for the dollar triggered pressure on regional currencies, and the easing of the Bank of Mexico policy in late December reduced the yield advantage that had previously supported the peso after strong growth in 2025. This pressure is partially offset by an improvement in the external position and a transition to a current account surplus in mid-2025, which creates a floor for a sharper devaluation.
Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.34%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.20%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a positive 0.54%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) weakened to a level of around 0.795 per US dollar, remaining close to highs not seen since 2011, amid rising geopolitical tensions following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Uncertainty in the global economy related to US trade policy, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts, intensified demand for safe-haven assets despite the weakness of the franc. Investors remain focused on the upcoming domestic inflation data to be released on January 8: a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index is expected in monthly terms, with a growth of only 0.1% in annual terms. In December, the Swiss National Bank kept rates at 0%, and most analysts do not expect changes in 2026.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose above 1720 dollars per ounce, approaching a weekly high, amid rising geopolitical tensions in Venezuela following the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The events stimulated demand for precious metals as haven assets and also supported palladium due to its key role in catalytic converters for gasoline engines. Demand is also supported by expectations of the EU easing the ban on internal combustion engines by 2035 while maintaining strict environmental standards, and the launch of palladium futures in China, which increases liquidity and provides hedging opportunities.
Asian markets rose in synchronization yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.97%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.57%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.01%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.672 dollars, remaining near its highest level since October 2024, amid an improvement in global risk sentiment and a weakening of the US dollar. Investor attention is shifting to the publication of Australian inflation data for November, which is expected on Wednesday and is projected to show a moderate slowdown in price pressure. This data could prove key for the next steps of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had previously allowed for the possibility of a rate hike if inflationary risks persist.

The US equities concluded the final trading day of 2025 with declines as risks were trimmed and expectations for Fed policy were reassessed. At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by -0.63%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped by -0.74%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed -0.76% lower. Despite the weak finish, the year proved strong: the S&P 500 gained approximately +16.6%, the Nasdaq +20.4%, and the Dow +13.2%. AI-related companies remained the primary driver, while the broader market balanced geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainty, high valuations, and shifting rate expectations. Disagreements within the Fed regarding the pace of easing in 2026 and sharp volatility in the precious metals market in late December amplified the cautious investor sentiment at the start of the new year.

The Canadian dollar weakened above the 1.37 level per U.S. dollar, retreating from its highest point since July amid deteriorating domestic macroeconomic signals and year-end strength in the greenback. Statistics Canada recorded a -0.3% contraction in real GDP for October, confirming an economic slowdown in the fourth quarter and weakening the case for a tighter policy stance compared to the U.S. Additional pressure came from falling oil prices, which reduced export revenues, as well as a widening yield spread: Canada’s 10-year bond yield dipped toward 3%, while the US 10-year yield holds near 4%.

On the final trading day of 2025, European equities held near all-time highs, closing the year with their best performance since 2021. The German DAX (DE40) was not traded on Wednesday, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down -0.23%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell -0.27%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished Wednesday down -0.09%. Growth was supported by relatively resilient macroeconomic dynamics and expectations for expanded fiscal spending in the region; key contributions came from the banking sector, which posted its best results since the late 1990s, and basic resource companies following the rally in precious metals.

On Wednesday, silver plummeted by more than -5% to $72 per ounce, correcting from a record high of $86.62 reached earlier in the week due to year-end profit-taking. The correction is technical in nature following a meteoric rally: in 2025, the metal appreciated by more than 150%, significantly outperforming gold and making it the strongest year in silver’s history. Looking ahead, analysts expect continued interest from both retail and institutional investors, especially given the likelihood of further Fed easing in 2026, which may limit the depth of corrections after such powerful growth.

The US crude oil (WTI) inventories for the week ending December 26 decreased by 1.93 million barrels, the largest weekly decline since mid-November and notably exceeding market expectations. Nevertheless, total commercial inventories remain high at year-end, approximately 423 million barrels, which is significantly above historical norms and points to a persistent global supply surplus despite geopolitical constraints, including the blockade of Venezuelan supplies and sanctions against Russian producers.

The US natural gas prices declined toward approximately $3.70 per MMBtu, a minimum since late October, amid forecasts of warmer weather and weakening short-term heating demand. The expected reduction in heating degree days and downward revisions to consumption forecasts suggest lower demand in the coming weeks, while prospects for production growth add pressure to prices. However, in the broader horizon, the market remains relatively resilient: in 2025, gas prices may rise by about 4% thanks to record LNG exports. In 2026, the market will likely be supported by structural factors, including increased electrification and higher gas usage in power generation, despite the expected further expansion of supply.

Asian markets mostly declined on the final day of 2025. The Japanese Nikkei 225 was not traded, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by -0.59%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped -0.87%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of -0.03% on Wednesday.
President Xi Jinping stated that China’s economy is on track to meet its 5% growth target for 2025. Furthermore, Xi Jinping indicated that in 2026, authorities intend to move toward a more proactive macroeconomic policy to sustain growth rates. The focus will be on innovative development and maintaining stability amid ongoing global uncertainty, signaling Beijing’s readiness to ramp up stimulus measures if necessary.

On Monday, the US stock indices corrected after hitting record highs at the end of last week. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.51%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.35%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.46%. The primary pressure once again came from the technology sector amid growing doubts about the justification of high valuations for AI-related companies. The sell-off was led by Nvidia and Tesla, while weakness also affected Oracle and Palantir, as investors continue to question whether massive AI investments by software developers and data center operators can translate into comparable earnings growth.
European stock markets ended Monday with moderate gains, supported by strengthening shares in automakers and the technology sector. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.04%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.10%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.13%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.04%. Investors continued to assess the regional geopolitical situation, attempting to gauge whether the momentum of the strong rally can persist into the beginning of next year.

On Tuesday, silver recovered by more than 1%, rising toward $73 per ounce following a sharp collapse in the previous session, the strongest daily decline in five years, triggered by profit-taking. The metal continues to find support from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, including prolonged and unstable negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, rising risks surrounding Iran, and increased Chinese military activity near Taiwan. Despite high short-term volatility, the medium-term outlook for silver remains positive.

WTI oil prices consolidated around $58.1 per barrel on Tuesday after a sharp increase of over 2% the day before, driven by intensified geopolitical risks. Uncertainty regarding a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine rose again following Moscow’s statements about a possible revision of its negotiating position, despite recent signals from the US and Ukraine of progress, with key issues remaining unresolved. Additional tension is building over the situation in Venezuela, where production has reportedly begun to halt in a key region following US actions. Nevertheless, despite short-term geopolitical support, the oil market overall remains under pressure: prices have declined by nearly 20% since the start of the year, marking the sharpest annual drop since 2020 amid expectations of sufficient global supply.

The US natural gas prices rose toward the $4 per MMBtu mark, maintaining most of their recovery from a two-month low recorded in late December. Prices were supported by prognoses of colder weather, which boosted expectations for increased heating demand in early January and prompted utility companies to build positions in short-term contracts. An additional factor was EIA data showing a storage withdrawal of 166 billion cubic feet for the week ending December 19, a level exceeding the seasonal norm that pushed inventories below five-year averages. This occurred despite record production, as the expansion of LNG export capacity and European restrictions on Russian gas continue to support external demand for American LNG.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.44%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.10%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.71%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.42%.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.16%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.57% higher. The US equities saw a moderate decline on Wednesday after the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high the previous day, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains. Despite robust macro data, with US Q3 GDP growing at 4.3% YoY, its fastest pace in two years, driven by consumption, exports, and government spending, markets continue to price in Fed rate cuts for next year. Political pressure on the Fed intensified as National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated the regulator is moving too slowly on easing, noting that the AI boom supports growth while simultaneously curbing inflation. The tech sector dominated again: Nvidia (+3%), Broadcom (+2.3%), and Amazon (+1.6%) extended their rallies, while Tesla corrected (-0.7%) after briefly hitting a new record. Trading activity is subdued due to the holiday schedule; US financial markets close early on Wednesday and will remain closed on Thursday and Friday for Christmas.

European equity markets mostly rose yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.23%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) dropped 0.21%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.14%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.24%. European stock markets opened without significant changes as the Christmas holidays began. Many platforms are operating on shortened schedules, and liquidity is noticeably decreasing. Investors are scaling back activity, and trading dynamics are expected to be driven by specific corporate news rather than macroeconomic factors. Most key regional exchanges will remain closed until Friday.
WTI prices rose to $58.6 per barrel on Wednesday, marking a sixth consecutive session of gains and reaching a two-week high fueled by geopolitical tensions. Prices were supported by US actions to intercept Venezuelan oil tankers and new strikes on energy infrastructure in the Black Sea region amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, pressure remains from API data showing a 2.4 million barrel increase in crude inventories alongside builds in gasoline and distillates. Overall, oil remains influenced by expectations of a supply surplus next year, trending toward an annual decline of over 18%.

Silver (XAG) prices surpassed $72 per ounce on Wednesday, rising for a fourth straight session and hitting a new all-time high. The market is buoyed by expectations of US monetary easing and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Geopolitical tension added fuel to the rally after President Donald Trump ordered the blocking of Venezuelan oil tankers last week. Silver has gained approximately 149% year-to-date, supported by a structural supply deficit and its recent inclusion in the US critical minerals list.

Platinum (XPT) prices broke above $2,300 per ounce, marking a new historical peak amid supply shortages and high investment demand. This marks a ten-session winning streak, the longest since 2017. Year-to-date, the metal has soared over 150%, its best performance since the late 1980s. Key drivers include mining disruptions in South Africa, a third consecutive year of market deficit, anticipation of US Section 232 trade restrictions, and strong demand in China following the launch of platinum futures in Guangzhou.

Asian markets were predominantly higher yesterday. The Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.02%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.69%, the Hang Seng (HK50) edged down 0.11%, and the ASX 200 (AU200) posted a strong gain of 1.10%.

The Hong Kong market saw moderate gains on Wednesday morning, supported by expectations of Chinese stimulus measures, including urban renewal plans and property market stabilization in the new 2026–2030 five-year plan. Gains were capped by local factors such as a narrowing current account surplus and inflation holding at 1.2%. Financials and developers outperformed, while consumer stocks traded cautiously ahead of the shortened session.

The “kiwi” strengthened to around $0.585, marking its third consecutive day of gains and reaching its highest level since late September. The rally is driven by expectations of a potential RBNZ rate hike in 2026, Q3 economic recovery data, and a weakening US dollar. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman signaled that rates will likely remain on hold for some time. Overall, the NZD is on track for an annual gain of over 4% in 2025.