Archive for Financial News – Page 170

22 Nov

What is quantum advantage? A quantum computing scientist explains an approaching milestone marking the arrival of extremely powerful computers

By Daniel Lidar, University of Southern California 

Quantum advantage is the milestone the field of quantum computing is fervently working toward, where a quantum computer can solve problems that are beyond the reach of the most powerful non-quantum, or classical, computers.

Quantum refers to the scale of atoms and molecules where the laws of physics as we experience them break down and a different, counterintuitive set of laws apply. Quantum computers take advantage of these strange behaviors to solve problems.

There are some types of problems that are impractical for classical computers to solve, such as cracking state-of-the-art encryption algorithms. Research in recent decades has shown that quantum computers have the potential to solve some of these problems. If a quantum computer can be built that actually does solve one of these problems, it will have demonstrated quantum advantage.

I am a physicist who studies quantum information processing and the control of quantum systems. I believe that this frontier of scientific and technological innovation not only promises groundbreaking advances in computation but also represents a broader surge in quantum technology, including significant advancements in quantum cryptography and quantum sensing.

The source of quantum computing’s power

Central to quantum computing is the quantum bit, or qubit. Unlike classical bits, which can only be in states of 0 or 1, a qubit can be in any state that is some combination of 0 and 1. This state of neither just 1 or just 0 is known as a quantum superposition. With every additional qubit, the number of states that can be represented by the qubits doubles.

This property is often mistaken for the source of the power of quantum computing. Instead, it comes down to an intricate interplay of superposition, interference and entanglement.

Interference involves manipulating qubits so that their states combine constructively during computations to amplify correct solutions and destructively to suppress the wrong answers. Constructive interference is what happens when the peaks of two waves – like sound waves or ocean waves – combine to create a higher peak. Destructive interference is what happens when a wave peak and a wave trough combine and cancel each other out. Quantum algorithms, which are few and difficult to devise, set up a sequence of interference patterns that yield the correct answer to a problem.

Entanglement establishes a uniquely quantum correlation between qubits: The state of one cannot be described independently of the others, no matter how far apart the qubits are. This is what Albert Einstein famously dismissed as “spooky action at a distance.” Entanglement’s collective behavior, orchestrated through a quantum computer, enables computational speed-ups that are beyond the reach of classical computers.

The ones and zeros – and everything in between – of quantum computing.

Applications of quantum computing

Quantum computing has a range of potential uses where it can outperform classical computers. In cryptography, quantum computers pose both an opportunity and a challenge. Most famously, they have the potential to decipher current encryption algorithms, such as the widely used RSA scheme.

One consequence of this is that today’s encryption protocols need to be reengineered to be resistant to future quantum attacks. This recognition has led to the burgeoning field of post-quantum cryptography. After a long process, the National Institute of Standards and Technology recently selected four quantum-resistant algorithms and has begun the process of readying them so that organizations around the world can use them in their encryption technology.

In addition, quantum computing can dramatically speed up quantum simulation: the ability to predict the outcome of experiments operating in the quantum realm. Famed physicist Richard Feynman envisioned this possibility more than 40 years ago. Quantum simulation offers the potential for considerable advancements in chemistry and materials science, aiding in areas such as the intricate modeling of molecular structures for drug discovery and enabling the discovery or creation of materials with novel properties.

Another use of quantum information technology is quantum sensing: detecting and measuring physical properties like electromagnetic energy, gravity, pressure and temperature with greater sensitivity and precision than non-quantum instruments. Quantum sensing has myriad applications in fields such as environmental monitoring, geological exploration, medical imaging and surveillance.

Initiatives such as the development of a quantum internet that interconnects quantum computers are crucial steps toward bridging the quantum and classical computing worlds. This network could be secured using quantum cryptographic protocols such as quantum key distribution, which enables ultra-secure communication channels that are protected against computational attacks – including those using quantum computers.

Despite a growing application suite for quantum computing, developing new algorithms that make full use of the quantum advantage – in particular in machine learning – remains a critical area of ongoing research.

a metal apparatus with green laser light in the background
A prototype quantum sensor developed by MIT researchers can detect any frequency of electromagnetic waves.
Guoqing Wang, CC BY-NC-ND

Staying coherent and overcoming errors

The quantum computing field faces significant hurdles in hardware and software development. Quantum computers are highly sensitive to any unintentional interactions with their environments. This leads to the phenomenon of decoherence, where qubits rapidly degrade to the 0 or 1 states of classical bits.

Building large-scale quantum computing systems capable of delivering on the promise of quantum speed-ups requires overcoming decoherence. The key is developing effective methods of suppressing and correcting quantum errors, an area my own research is focused on.

In navigating these challenges, numerous quantum hardware and software startups have emerged alongside well-established technology industry players like Google and IBM. This industry interest, combined with significant investment from governments worldwide, underscores a collective recognition of quantum technology’s transformative potential. These initiatives foster a rich ecosystem where academia and industry collaborate, accelerating progress in the field.

Quantum advantage coming into view

Quantum computing may one day be as disruptive as the arrival of generative AI. Currently, the development of quantum computing technology is at a crucial juncture. On the one hand, the field has already shown early signs of having achieved a narrowly specialized quantum advantage. Researchers at Google and later a team of researchers in China demonstrated quantum advantage for generating a list of random numbers with certain properties. My research team demonstrated a quantum speed-up for a random number guessing game.

On the other hand, there is a tangible risk of entering a “quantum winter,” a period of reduced investment if practical results fail to materialize in the near term.

While the technology industry is working to deliver quantum advantage in products and services in the near term, academic research remains focused on investigating the fundamental principles underpinning this new science and technology. This ongoing basic research, fueled by enthusiastic cadres of new and bright students of the type I encounter almost every day, ensures that the field will continue to progress.The Conversation

About the Author:

Daniel Lidar, Professor of Electrical Engineering, Chemistry, and Physics & Astronomy, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Financial News Programming
22 Nov

Copper Stocks: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain

Source: Streetwise Reports  (11/17/23)

Despite stockpiles of copper growing quickly, analysts polled at London Metal Exchange Week believe the red metal will bring good returns in the long run. 

Stockpiles of copper registered with the London Metal Exchange (LME) more than doubled this summer and were at their highest level since May 2022 in September.

Despite that, just one month later, an informal poll of 800 people attending LME Week in London found that 53% believed the red metal needed for the green energy revolution would be the metal with the most upside price potential next year, according to Reuters.

Copper will be “THE bullish energy transition trade within commodities,” said Max Layton of Citi during an analysts’ debate, the report said.

Tin came in a distant second in the survey with 23%.

Copper will be “THE bullish energy transition trade within commodities,” said Max Layton of Citi during an analysts’ debate.

Analysts said several companies — including World Copper Ltd., Granite Creek Copper Ltd., and Fabled Copper Corp. — could be there to reap the benefits of that upside.

The International Copper Study Group met in Lisbon, Portugal, last month, and found that stockpiles are expected to grow, and 2024 could see a surplus of about 467,000 pounds of copper on the market as a consequence of higher supply from new or expanded mines.

“Although the global economic outlook is challenging, an expected improvement in manufacturing activity, the ongoing energy transition and the development of new semis production capacity in various countries should support higher growth in world refined usage in 2024,” the group wrote in a release.

The Catalyst: Deficits Will Grow

Copper (Cu) prices haven’t moved much since spiking earlier this year, but BMI analysts believe deficits could still grow at an extreme pace over the coming decade as the clean energy revolution takes hold, predicting prices of US$11,500 per ton by 2032. Copper’s price was US$8,030 per ton ” Friday morning.

“In the longer term, we expect the copper market to remain in deficit as the green transition accelerates along with the demand for ‘green’ metals, including copper,” BMI’s analysts said, according to Stockhead.

EVs use more than three times as much copper as gas-burning cars. New copper production — and investment in exploration — will be needed to fuel the supply of those vehicles long-term, analysts have said.

“In the longer term, we expect the copper market to remain in deficit as the green transition accelerates along with the demand for ‘green’ metals, including copper,” BMI’s analysts said, according to Stockhead.

“Based on industry-wide capital intensity data, we calculate that some US$196 billion of investment will be required,” a market analysis issued by RFC Ambrian said. “Of this, US$80 billion is for greenfield projects, and US$116 billion is for brownfield projects, of which US$71 billion is simply for replacement capacity. A further US$35 billion of investment will be required to close the supply gap.”

An S&P report called copper “one of the most underappreciated critical minerals.”

“Deeper electrification requires wires, and wires are primarily made from copper,” the report said.

Billionaire Robert Friedland, founder and executive co-chairman of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., recently told Bloomberg that he fears copper prices could jump tenfold eventually.

“We’re heading for a train wreck here,” he said.

World Copper Ltd.

One company that could benefit from a future spike in copper prices is Vancouver-based World Copper Ltd. (WCU:TSX.V;WCUFF:OTCQX; 7LY0:FRA), which is focused on the exploration and development of its copper porphyry projects: Escalones and Cristal in Chile, and Zonia in Arizona.

Taylor Combaluzier of Red Cloud Securities has rated the stock a Buy with a target of CA$2.15. He said World Copper has “transformed from an explorer into a developer with a portfolio of high-quality copper projects in premiere copper mining jurisdictions.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

World Copper Ltd. (WCU:TSX.V; WCUFF:OTCQB)

Retail: 40.67%
Strategic Investors: 31.16%
Management & Insiders: 27%
Institutions: 1.17%
40.7%
31.2%
27.0%
*Share Structure as of 4/20/2023
Source: Thomson Reuters & World Copper Ltd.

 

“We believe Escalones shows compelling economics when compared to other copper development projects and that it offers lots of potential for resource expansion,” he wrote. “Additionally, we believe Zonia has lots of untapped potential, as it could either be rapidly developed for nearer-term production or potentially be expanded through exploration to increase the scale of the project.”

Zacks Small-Cap Research analyst Steven Ralston has a CA$0.59 per share target price on the junior mining company. Its share price on Friday, in comparison, was CA$0.065 per share, implying a potential return for investors of more than 800%.

Earlier this year, World Copper filed an updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) for Zonia. It increased total resources by about 90% to about 198 million tonnes from a 2017 estimate, with contained copper increasing by 55% to about 1.03 billion pounds.

Escalones is about 100 kilometers from Santiago. Its PEA (preliminary economic assessment) estimates an inferred resource of 426 million tonnes of 0.367% copper, containing 3,447 pounds of copper.

Coming catalysts include permitting for Escalones and a preliminary feasibility study (PFS) of Zonia’s main deposit.

Wealth Minerals Ltd. (WML:TSX.V; WMLLF:OTCQB) owns about 15.8% of World Copper or about 19.2 million shares. About 27% is owned by management and insiders, including Director Robert Kopple with 11.84% or 14.8 million shares and Board Chairman Hendrik van Alphen with 2.67% or 3.25 million shares. CEO Peterson said he holds about 700,000 shares. The rest is retail.

Its market cap is CA$8.13 million. It has 125 million shares outstanding, including 87.2 million of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.26 and CA$0.07.

Granite Creek Copper Ltd.

Another play for copper is Granite Creek Copper Ltd. (GCX:TSX.V; GCXXF:OTCQB), “a Canadian exploration company focused on the acquisition and development of highly prospective brownfields assets in top districts of favorable North American mining jurisdictions,” according to its website. It is a member of the Metallic Group of Companies, along with Metallic Minerals and Stillwater Critical Minerals.

Per a 2023 PEA, its Carmacks Project has the potential for significant additional cash flow from the processing of oxide tailings to increase total copper recovery.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Granite Creek Copper Ltd. (GCX:TSX.V; GCXXF:OTCQB)

Retail: 94.29%
Management & Insiders: 5.71%
94.3%
5.7%
*Share Structure as of 8/28/2023
Source: Thomson Reuters

 

The company has also identified additional near-mine exploration targets that have the potential to increase the resource from the current 36 million tonnes grading around 1.07% copper equivalent.  The project currently has a mine life of nine years, at 7,000 tonnes per day (TPD), and any further expansion into the surrounding area could significantly extend that operational lifespan.

Recently, the company announced the preliminary results of a metallurgical study designed to increase the recovery of copper from oxide material at Carmacks, with up to 81% of the copper present in the test samples going into solution.

A Couloir Capital research report referred to Granite Creek Copper as a “promising base metals explorer with a near-term target of reaching a billion pounds of copper at its Carmacks Copper Project.”

Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com said Granite Greek was “a really easy call.”

“Green energy requires enormous quantities of copper, lithium, and graphite, far more than today,” Moriarty wrote. “Prices will have to go up. Granite Creek Copper is in the catbird’s seat, ready to move to production.”

Moriarty wrote that he’s “not a big expert on copper, but Granite has to be one of the lowest market cap copper stories with a real asset.”

Management and insiders own 5.71% of the company. Timothy Johnson owns 2.54% of the company with 4.08 million shares, Robert Sennott owns 1.84% with 2.96 million shares, Michael Victor Rowley owns 1.07% with 1.71 million shares, and John Charles Richard Cumming owns 0.26% with 0.42 million shares.

There are 160.77 million shares outstanding, with 151.59 million free-float traded shares. The company has a market cap of CA$5.63 million. It trades in the 52-week period between CA$0.03 and CA$0.105.

Fabled Copper Corp.

Fabled Copper Corp. (FABL:CSE) has continually seen high grades of copper in fieldwork results from its Muskwa Project in British Columbia.

One float sample taken at about 1,600 meters elevation contained massive sulfides and quartz veining with 60% chalcopyrite, 3% bornite, and 23.4% copper (Cu). Another sample at the western side of the occurrence found “a staggering” 29.3% Cu.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Fabled Copper Corp. (FABL:CSE)

Retail: 97%
Insiders & Management: 3%
97%
3%
*Share Structure as of 9/22/2023
Source: Yahoo Finance

 

“We’re finding all this high-grade mineralization,” President and Chief Executive Officer Peter Hawley said. “So that’s a pretty good hint that, you know, we’re, we’re very close to the source . . .  It’s not very often you see high-grade numbers like this.”

Muskwa is in northwestern British Columbia near the Yukon border. It consists of the Toro, Bronson, and Neil claim blocks. All three were explored in the early 1970s before rockslides and snowfields arrested further development. One vein was developed and partly mined — 498,000 tons were milled with a head grade of about 3% Cu.

On the same day as the 29.3% Cu sample, 11 other samples were collected over an altitude of 158 meters. Of the 12 collected, 11 assayed greater than 0.5% Cu, seven greater than 10% Cu, and four greater than 20% Cu.

Fabled has applied for 15 drill sites at the project, including four in the Eagle Vein area. Negotiations with First Nations continue.

According to Yahoo Finance, about 3% of the company is held by insiders. They include Director Luc Pelchat with 1.19% or 210,000 shares, David Smalley with 0.86% or 150,000 shares, and President and CEO Hawley with 0.65% or 110,000 shares, Reuters said.

The rest, 97%, is retail.

Fabled Copper’s market cap is CA$870,000, with 21.75 million shares outstanding, 21.28 million of them floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.105 and CA$0.03.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1.  World Copper Ltd., Granite Creek Copper Ltd., and Fabled Copper Corp. are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000. In addition, Fabled Copper Corp. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fabled Copper Corp.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

 

Financial News Metals
21 Nov

The holiday shopping season provides support for US stock indices. Asian indices are growing amid expectations of a positive NVDA report

By JustMarkets

US stock indices continued their rally yesterday. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.58%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) gained  0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.13% on Monday. At the same time, the S&P 500 Index (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) hit 3-month highs, and the NASDAQ Index (US100) reached a year high. Rising technology stocks led the overall market higher, with Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) rising to record highs amid optimism about artificial intelligence.

Favorable outlooks for the holiday shopping season are also lending support to stocks. According to a Deloitte survey, consumers plan to spend an average of $567 during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, up 13% from last year. Additionally, the National Retail Federation predicts that 182 million people will shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, the highest number since 2017.

Bearish factors include hawkish comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin, who said he favors raising the interest rate for longer due to unsustainable inflation. US leading indicators for October declined by 0.8% m/m, slightly weaker than expectations of 0.7% m/m and the largest decline in 6 months.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) shares hit record highs yesterday after recently fired OpenAI CEO Sam Altman joined the tech giant.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.18% on Monday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.79%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.11%.

Ahead of the release of this week’s Autumn Budget, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promises to cut debt and cut taxes to further boost the country’s economy. Today, Prime Minister Sunak tweeted, “Now that inflation is halved, we can turn our attention to cutting tax… We will reward work by cutting taxes and reforming our benefits system so work always pays.” In another tweet, Prime Minister Sunak added: “I will do what is necessary to get our debt down and provide financial security. That will help keep inflation falling and get mortgage rates back down to affordable levels.”

Monday’s decline in the dollar index to a 2.5-month low helped energy prices. Crude oil prices also rose amid concerns that OPEC+ countries may extend and even deepen oil production cuts at a meeting this weekend. OPEC+ will meet in Vienna on November 25-26 to discuss extending oil production cuts. Geopolitical concerns have heightened shipping risks in the Middle East due to the war between Israel and Hamas and are supporting crude prices after a Japanese-chartered Israeli ship was hijacked Sunday in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The rebels have said they support Hamas in the conflict and will continue attacks on Israeli territory and ships.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.59% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.33% on Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 1.86% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.13%. Most Asian stocks rose at the open on Tuesday. Optimism about a recovery in China’s real estate sector is boosting sentiment. Yesterday, there were reports that the Chinese government plans to take additional measures to support the sector.

Nvidia (NVDA) will report its earnings for September on Tuesday after the US market close. EPS is estimated to be $3.36 on revenue of $16.18 billion. For the past three quarters, Nvidia has consistently beaten forecasts, citing a huge increase in demand due to advances in artificial intelligence. The company develops chips that are specifically used to develop and power artificial intelligence platforms that place high demands on computing resources. Nvidia’s strong results invariably spark a rally in Asian chip companies and have also been the driving force behind a significant rally in Japanese stocks this year. Nvidia recently unveiled a new flagship chip for AI development, the H200.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,547.38 +33.36 (+0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,151.04 +203.76 (+0.58%)

DAX (DE40)  15,901.33 −17.83  (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,496.36 −7.89 (−0.11%)

USD Index  103.49 −0.43 (−0.41%)

News feed for 2023.11.21:
  • – Australia RBA Bullock Speech at 01:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Trade Balance at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Hong Kong Inflation Rate at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
21 Nov

USDInd hits 3-month low. More room to fall?

By ForexTime

  • Dollar weakened as markets raise bet on Fed rate cuts in 2024
  • USDInd approaches key support levels around 103 region
  • Daily close below 103 region could spark another 1,300-point drop
  • Other technical indicators suggest 350-point rebound ahead
  • FOMC meeting minutes later today may spark more volatility

 

The USD index has fallen by some 4000 points since its November 1st intraday high.

There may be little ahead to cheer for the index, given current market expectations that the US Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates as early as May 2024.

Recall that greater expectations for lower interest rate cuts tend to translate into a weaker currency.

 

At the time of writing the US Index is approaching a convergence of support levels:

  • 103.000: an important round number level
  • 102.910: the 261.8 Fibonacci level

The Fibonacci levels are taken from the 29th September low to the 3rd October high.

A daily close below these levels could see the index fall further to 101.900 to trade around its lowest since August.

USDInd may see 350-point technical rebound soon

From an Elliot wave perspective, the USDInd D1 is in its 5th impulse wave of the decline from 107.914 posted on November 1st.

Based on the Elliot wave theory, wave 5 is usually followed by a correction with sequence A-B-C coming in different forms.

If the key support levels around 103.00 hold, we may see the index bulls come in for a counter trend move back up to its 200-day moving average.

 

Note also that the Relative Strength Index (an indicator that shows us extreme buy and sell zones) is teetering at the 30-point level.

If the RSI falls below 30,  it becomes technically oversold.

Such a technical event would increase the probabilities of a rebound.

 

However, the Average Directional Movement Index (an indicator that shows us the strength of the trend) is pointing upwards.

This means that the downward bias for the USDInd remains strong.

This could spell an extended decline in the USDIndex, until we see a peak in the ADX signaling weakness in the current bearish strength.

 

What could move USDInd today?

With FOMC meeting minutes due at 7:00 pm GMT tonight, traders and investors around the world are looking for confirmation that peak US interest rates is truly here.

In other words, markets want to know whether the Fed is truly done with its rate hikes for this cycle.

If so, that could send the USDInd to a fresh 3-month low.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
20 Nov

Nvidia’s Q3 earnings: challenges ahead for chipmaker giant

By George Prior 

Nvidia’s third quarter earnings when they are revealed on Tuesday will be impressive and the guidance positive, but the company faces challenges ahead, yet almost every investor needs exposure to semiconductors.

This is the prediction from Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, ahead of the chip maker’s report this week.

All eyes are on the tech giant after a strong second quarter performance that saw revenues soar to $13.5bn.

The deVere CEO says: “Nvidia’s second-quarter, epic, shock-and-awe-esque earnings report still looms large in the minds of investors around the world.  Now all eyes are on the semiconductor titan’s revenues on Tuesday.

“While we expect the revenue growth to still be hugely impressive and the company’s stellar rise will undoubtedly continue, its trajectory also faces challenges ahead.”

He continues: “There is growing and intensifying competition in the semiconductor market and this will threaten Nvidia’s market share and, therefore, margins over the longer term.

“In addition, the 170% surge in the second quarter mainly came from data centre revenues and Nvidia is very exposed to China.

“With China tightening regulations and cracking down on various industries, including technology, the company may face headwinds in this critical market. Regulatory uncertainties and geopolitical tensions could impact Nvidia’s ability to sustain its mighty results, especially if there are disruptions to its business operations in China.”

Despite the potential challenges on the horizon, the overarching theme remains—semiconductors are a cornerstone of the contemporary tech-driven world.

“Almost every investor should recognise the strategic importance of semiconductor stocks in their portfolios,” notes Nigel Green.

“As the backbone of the digital era, semiconductors power a vast array of technologies, from consumer electronics to advanced computing systems.”

The semiconductor industry’s continued growth is propelled by the increasing demand for smart devices, the expansion of 5G networks, and the rapid development of artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Including semiconductor stocks in a diversified portfolio offers investors exposure to a sector with long-term growth potential. The sector’s resilience, adaptability, and its role in driving technological innovation make it an attractive choice for those seeking stability amid market uncertainties.

“Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is a pivotal moment for investors to assess the company’s standing in the dynamic semiconductor landscape.

“Investors, recognizing the critical role of semiconductors now and in the future, are likely to find value.

“Your future self will thank you for maintaining or establishing positions in this key sector,” concludes the deVere CEO.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

Financial News Stock Market News
20 Nov

PBoC left key rates unchanged. OPEC+ plans to cut production to support oil prices

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.01% (+2.01% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.13% (+2.44% for the week). On Friday, the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.08% (+2.76% for the week). The broad market initially went down on Friday as bond yields rose following Friday’s economic news from the US showing an unexpected increase in October housing starts and building permits, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. However, bond yields retreated from highs towards the end of the trading session, allowing stocks to recover towards the end of the trading session.

On Friday, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr said he believes the Fed is at or near peak interest rates, but San Francisco Fed Chair Mary Daly and Boston Fed President Susan Collins emphasized the need for more evidence of cooling inflation.

According to Bank of America, EPFR Global data showed global equity funds attracted US$23.5 billion in the week to November 15, the second-largest inflow this year. This indicates that funds are building up positions in equities and, therefore, believe in further growth amid the end of the tightening cycle by the US Federal Reserve.

X (formerly Twitter) billionaire owner Elon Musk has been ratcheting up tensions with his posts on the platform supporting an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory. IBM, NBCUniversal, and parent company Comcast said they would stop advertising on X after it was reported that their ads appeared alongside content supporting the anti-Semitic movement. On Thursday and Friday, ads from Apple, Oracle, Amazon, and NBA Mexico were also placed next to anti-Semitic material on X, and there is a high probability that these companies will also stop using the platform. The value of company X continues to plummet. Twitter was sold for $44 billion dollars, and X is now valued at $11 billion dollars.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.84% (week-to-date +4.15%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.91% (week-to-date +2.32%) on Friday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.97% (week-to-date +3.74%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 1.26% (week-to-date +1.95%).

On Friday, ECB Governing Council representative and Bundesbank President Nagel said that borrowing costs should remain high for a sufficient period of time and an ECB rate cut is highly unlikely in the near term. His colleague, ECB Governing Council representative Holzmann, also said that it would be too early for the ECB to start cutting interest rates in the second quarter of next year, and in general, market expectations for a rate cut are premature. At the moment, the ECB still prefers to stick to tight monetary policy, but if the pace of wage growth starts to shift downward in the near future, the current ECB stance will soften sharply, and the door for rate cuts will be open.

A new budget will be presented in the UK this week. UK Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt said that the government can afford to cut some taxes in the face of lower inflation, but cuts to social benefits will accompany any cut. Hunt also said the government needs to reform the welfare system to get more people back to work. Economists believe Wednesday’s autumn budget will also include relief for businesses and wealthy property owners. The tax cuts, along with improvements in the labor market, will improve economic performance but could be factored in more persistent inflation next year.

Crude oil and gasoline prices rose sharply Friday and recovered much of Thursday’s sharp sell-off. Oil prices also rose after Goldman Sachs said it expects OPEC to act to support oil prices. As early as next Sunday, OPEC+ will consider deepening oil production cuts. This could lead to a sharp gap up at the market opening on Monday, November 27. Goldman Sachs believes OPEC+ countries will ensure Brent Crude oil prices in the $80 to $100 range in 2024, providing a moderate deficit.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.34% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.04% over five trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 1.11%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 1.04%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC), as expected, kept key lending interest rates near record lows. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China injected about 80 billion yuan of additional liquidity into the markets. However, Chinese equities were mostly supported by the rise in real estate stocks after Chinese regulators pledged to provide additional policy support to the struggling real estate sector.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,514.02 +5.78 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,947.28 +1.81 (+0.01%)

DAX (DE40)  15,919.16  +132.55 (+0.84%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,504.25 +93.28 (+1.26%)

USD Index  103.82 −0.53 (−0.51%)

News feed for 2023.11.20:
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
  • – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE Gov Andrew Bailey’s Speech at 20:45 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand Trade Balance at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
20 Nov

Brent has risen with support from an OPEC+ decision

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of a Brent barrel climbed to 81.20 USD on Monday.

The market primarily relies on OPEC+ member countries reducing crude oil supply to control prices. Energy carrier prices have declined for four consecutive weeks due to diminishing concerns about supply disruptions related to the Middle East conflict.

An OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for 26 November. The possibility of discussing additional supply cuts may arise.

Since the end of September, crude oil prices have dropped by nearly 20%.

Technical analysis of Brent oil:

On the H4 Brent chart, a growth wave is forming to 82.72. A correction to 79.70 might follow, after which a new growth wave to 86.85 could initiate. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, with its signal line below zero, strictly pointing upwards.

On the H1 Brent chart, the growth wave movement to 82.72 is complete. This represents the first target. After the price reaches this level, a correction to 79.70 is expected to start, and a rise to 83.25 is expected next. Breaking through this level may unlock the potential for climbing to 86.85. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 80, strictly pointing upwards. New highs are expected to be set in this scenario.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
20 Nov

Trade Of The Week: UK100_m knocks on major resistance

By ForexTime 

  • UK100_m trapped in wide range
  • Index could be rocked by political and economic forces
  • Keep eye on UK Autumn Statement
  • Key levels of interest at 7605, 7500 and 7370
  • Possible breakout on the horizon?

Over the past few months, it has felt like the same old story for the UK100_m as it’s traded within a wide range. Significant support can be found at 7240 and resistance at 7730.

Note: The UK100_m tracks the underlying FTSE100 

The index has been influenced by various forces ranging from the pound’s performance to Bank of England (BoE) hike expectations and quarterly earnings from UK companies.

Note: The FTSE100 has a strong international focus with 75% of revenues from FTSE100 companies coming from outside the UK.

With prices flirting around the 50 and 100-day SMA ahead of a big week for the UK economy, a potential breakout may be on the horizon.

Here are 3 things to keep an eye on:

  1. UK Autumn Statement 

On Wednesday, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will present the Autumn Statement to Parliament.

Although this event swings more towards politics, investors will be paying close attention to key updates on the country’s finances and the government’s plan for tax and public spending. Confidence towards the UK economy has improved over the past two weeks as the country not only avoided a contraction in Q3 but inflation fell to its lowest rate since October 2021 at 4.6%. It will be interesting to see how this development impacts the Autumn Statement and whether bold steps are taken to boost the UK economy. This political event could impact sentiment towards the UK economy and the British pound, influencing the UK100_m as a result.

Note: The UK100_m has an inverse relationship with the British pound. When the pound appreciates, it translates to lower revenues for FTSE100 companies that acquire revenues from overseas, pulling the index lower as a result. The same is true vice versa. 

  • The UK100_m may trade lower if the Autumn budget boosts optimism over the UK economy and strengthens the pound as a result.
  • Should the Autumn budget disappoint and weaken sterling, this could push the UK100_m higher.

  1. Key UK economic data 

A day after the Autumn Statement, the focus shifts back to economic data with the Gfk consumer confidence and PMIs in focus. Sentiment remains shaky despite the good news from the UK over the past two weeks. Should the Gfk consumer sentiment confidence and manufacturing along with other PMIs paint a gloomy picture, this could hit confidence and fortify expectations around the BoE being done with rate hikes with the next move a cut.

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 55% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by May 2024.

  • The UK100_m could receive a boost if disappointing UK data weakens the pound and boosts bets around a BoE rate cut.
  • If UK data beats forecasts and the pound strengthens as a result, the UK100_m may trade lower.

  1. Technical forces 

The UK100_m remains in a wide range on the daily charts with prices flirting around the key 7500 level as of writing. 

  • Another daily close beyond the 7500 point could open a path toward the 200-day SMA at 7605 and major resistance at 7730.
  • Should prices remain capped below 7500, this could trigger a decline towards the 7370 and major support at 7240.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
18 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the way for the metals this week was Silver with a total gain of 4,145 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-10,954 contracts), Gold (-10,840 contracts), Copper (-6,320 contracts), Steel (-465 contracts) and Palladium (-207 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-14-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold486,63430155,37645-177,0195621,64338
Silver134,8262622,39850-31,634569,23618
Copper206,07247-16,6081616,4498515919
Palladium27,381100-11,230211,28399-5339
Platinum85,87097-3,9966-2,365896,36153

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (93 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent), Platinum (6 percent) and Copper (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels this week and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (45.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.2 percent)
Silver (50.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (44.3 percent)
Copper (16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.0 percent)
Platinum (6.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.6 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.1 percent)
Steel (92.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.4 percent)

 

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (28 percent) and Steel (15 percent) topped the past six weeks trends for the metals category.

Platinum (-15 percent) and Palladium (-10 percent) were the leaders for the downside trend scores on the week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (28.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (22.2 percent)
Silver (10.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.6 percent)
Copper (4.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.0 percent)
Platinum (-15.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.8 percent)
Palladium (-9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.7 percent)
Steel (14.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 155,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.322.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.359.14.9
– Net Position:155,376-177,01921,643
– Gross Longs:254,352110,72845,409
– Gross Shorts:98,976287,74723,766
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.555.637.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.2-25.12.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 22,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.333.818.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.757.212.0
– Net Position:22,398-31,6349,236
– Gross Longs:50,29145,55125,379
– Gross Shorts:27,89377,18516,143
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.255.617.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-1.5-32.3

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.139.07.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.131.07.2
– Net Position:-16,60816,449159
– Gross Longs:61,97680,28715,028
– Gross Shorts:78,58463,83814,869
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.585.319.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.6-2.9-11.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.429.011.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.031.84.1
– Net Position:-3,996-2,3656,361
– Gross Longs:44,96924,9429,842
– Gross Shorts:48,96527,3073,481
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.488.653.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.310.619.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.849.67.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.88.47.2
– Net Position:-11,23011,283-53
– Gross Longs:5,68913,5831,911
– Gross Shorts:16,9192,3001,964
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 15.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.798.938.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.99.05.4

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.075.42.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.866.41.4
– Net Position:-1,7681,628140
– Gross Longs:3,44613,641400
– Gross Shorts:5,21412,013260
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.57.647.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.7-15.728.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
18 Nov

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets topped by 2-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (65,612 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (30,097 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (7,144 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (2,059 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-71,074 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-57,267 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-396 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-1,256 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-14-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months10,540,40099416,72695-417,79551,06988
FedFunds1,766,82469-150,12136172,71766-22,59647
2-Year4,208,593100-1,388,09441,256,35695131,73898
Long T-Bond1,354,13776-128,7393964,7543463,98595
10-Year4,743,21790-661,76618595,6557966,11188
5-Year6,084,468100-1,416,24001,291,28397124,957100

 

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (95 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (53 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (39 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (4 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (51.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (37.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (53.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (95.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (93.2 percent)

 

US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (39 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17 percent) and the Fed Funds (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 5-Year Bonds (-21 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (16.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-15.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-26.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (7.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (12.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (35.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (17.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (7.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.2 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 416,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 30,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 386,629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.054.60.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.058.50.3
– Net Position:416,726-417,7951,069
– Gross Longs:2,213,6045,752,66735,163
– Gross Shorts:1,796,8786,170,46234,094
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.04.588.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-7.60.8

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -150,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -71,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.176.21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.666.43.2
– Net Position:-150,121172,717-22,596
– Gross Longs:142,4111,346,35334,086
– Gross Shorts:292,5321,173,63656,682
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.566.446.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.9-15.3-13.9

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,388,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 65,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,453,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.481.66.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.351.73.1
– Net Position:-1,388,0941,256,356131,738
– Gross Longs:435,8393,432,176264,080
– Gross Shorts:1,823,9332,175,820132,342
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.394.998.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.18.4-2.0

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,416,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,423,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.483.17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.761.95.1
– Net Position:-1,416,2401,291,283124,957
– Gross Longs:448,8675,057,978436,788
– Gross Shorts:1,865,1073,766,695311,831
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.596.8100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.319.414.0

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -661,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -57,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -604,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.877.79.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.865.17.8
– Net Position:-661,766595,65566,111
– Gross Longs:514,1093,684,382435,784
– Gross Shorts:1,175,8753,088,727369,673
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.379.487.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.0-8.60.2

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -265,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -264,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.678.210.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.662.812.8
– Net Position:-265,436314,068-48,632
– Gross Longs:195,4681,597,398213,588
– Gross Shorts:460,9041,283,330262,220
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.098.985.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.85.9-4.6

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -128,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.175.315.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.670.510.5
– Net Position:-128,73964,75463,985
– Gross Longs:109,7971,019,283206,287
– Gross Shorts:238,536954,529142,302
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.634.095.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.6-52.425.3

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -325,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,365 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.682.410.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.263.69.1
– Net Position:-325,761297,85427,907
– Gross Longs:89,0691,306,531172,720
– Gross Shorts:414,8301,008,677144,813
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.844.463.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-17.0-6.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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