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Archive for Financial News – Page 171

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (7,001 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (588 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (563 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-15,980 contracts), the VIX (-9,879 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-5,972 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-29 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-14-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,192,899	20	-52,833	57	11,057	41	41,776	54
Nikkei 225	16,210	37	-2,587	48	1,890	47	697	37
Nasdaq-Mini	273,787	58	315	39	-2,032	42	1,717	77
DowJones-Mini	101,030	65	-36,513	1	41,796	99	-5,283	18
VIX	415,124	80	-42,928	81	46,627	18	-3,699	78
Nikkei 225 Yen	66,736	67	15,047	81	6,445	29	-21,492	38

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (81 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (57 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (48 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (80.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (87.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (56.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (56.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (39.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (48.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (48.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.5 percent)

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (13.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (5.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-33.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (23.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-41.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-30.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	50.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	38.8	6.4
– Net Position:	-42,928	46,627	-3,699
– Gross Longs:	94,375	207,847	22,934
– Gross Shorts:	137,303	161,220	26,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	18.2	77.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	4.0	13.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	72.7	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	72.2	10.1
– Net Position:	-52,833	11,057	41,776
– Gross Longs:	274,348	1,593,850	262,981
– Gross Shorts:	327,181	1,582,793	221,205
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	41.4	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-4.8	5.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	66.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.8	25.3	15.9
– Net Position:	-36,513	41,796	-5,283
– Gross Longs:	20,914	67,381	10,795
– Gross Shorts:	57,427	25,585	16,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	98.7	18.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	20.7	-39.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	57.7	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	58.5	13.8
– Net Position:	315	-2,032	1,717
– Gross Longs:	69,502	158,039	39,612
– Gross Shorts:	69,187	160,071	37,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	42.1	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-4.7	12.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	80.7	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	68.2	4.7
– Net Position:	-65,566	68,821	-3,255
– Gross Longs:	77,725	445,804	22,861
– Gross Shorts:	143,291	376,983	26,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	69.1	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	3.6	-12.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -29 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	68.9	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	57.2	18.6
– Net Position:	-2,587	1,890	697
– Gross Longs:	1,287	11,162	3,716
– Gross Shorts:	3,874	9,272	3,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	47.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	17.9	-5.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -64,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	91.9	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.3	1.8
– Net Position:	-64,174	61,412	2,762
– Gross Longs:	19,177	362,575	9,791
– Gross Shorts:	83,351	301,163	7,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.3	41.8	-3.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

18 Nov

Soft Commodities COT Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,120 contracts) with Soybean Meal (14,358 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,834 contracts), Cocoa (757 contracts), Coffee (1,692 contracts), Wheat (573 contracts) and Lean Hogs (137 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-8,412 contracts), Sugar (-5,817 contracts), Cotton (-4,788 contracts) and Corn (-3,159 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-14-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,639,133	22	215,734	19	-246,762	81	31,028	42
Gold	486,634	30	155,376	45	-177,019	56	21,643	38
Silver	134,826	26	22,398	50	-31,634	56	9,236	18
Copper	206,072	47	-16,608	16	16,449	85	159	19
Palladium	27,381	100	-11,230	2	11,283	99	-53	39
Platinum	85,870	97	-3,996	6	-2,365	89	6,361	53
Natural Gas	1,296,464	67	-102,627	35	83,245	69	19,382	26
Brent	129,416	10	-31,863	50	28,504	50	3,359	57
Heating Oil	303,453	37	32,569	82	-51,504	28	18,935	59
Soybeans	738,268	43	86,677	27	-69,495	73	-17,182	63
Corn	1,448,933	33	-109,200	1	133,085	97	-23,885	97
Coffee	189,044	10	28,667	57	-29,696	46	1,029	25
Sugar	860,384	39	226,266	72	-277,525	24	51,259	69
Wheat	436,959	87	-59,038	25	58,799	76	239	69

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (87 percent) and Soybean Meal (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (72 percent) and Coffee (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (1 percent) and Cotton (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (21 percent) and the Live Cattle (25 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (1.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (1.9 percent)
Sugar (72.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (74.6 percent)
Coffee (56.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (55.1 percent)
Soybeans (26.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (30.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (76.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (68.9 percent)
Live Cattle (25.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (21.0 percent)
Cotton (11.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.2 percent)
Cocoa (87.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (86.5 percent)
Wheat (24.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.4 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (44 percent) and Soybean Meal (39 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (24 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-47 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-41 percent) and Soybean Oil (-17 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-0.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (1.9 percent)
Sugar (3.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.6 percent)
Coffee (44.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (36.5 percent)
Soybeans (24.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (6.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-46.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-47.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-1.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.0 percent)
Cotton (-40.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-29.5 percent)
Cocoa (6.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.6 percent)
Wheat (1.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -109,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	47.0	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	37.8	12.4
– Net Position:	-109,200	133,085	-23,885
– Gross Longs:	280,425	681,380	156,304
– Gross Shorts:	389,625	548,295	180,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	97.2	96.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.2	15.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 226,266 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 232,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	38.5	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	70.8	4.7
– Net Position:	226,266	-277,525	51,259
– Gross Longs:	312,037	331,517	91,508
– Gross Shorts:	85,771	609,042	40,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	24.4	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-6.9	17.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	41.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	57.5	5.3
– Net Position:	28,667	-29,696	1,029
– Gross Longs:	57,038	79,011	11,018
– Gross Shorts:	28,371	108,707	9,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	46.4	25.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.2	-42.9	0.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 86,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	51.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	61.0	9.4
– Net Position:	86,677	-69,495	-17,182
– Gross Longs:	160,458	380,773	52,094
– Gross Shorts:	73,781	450,268	69,276
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	72.8	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-22.0	-1.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,834 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	46.7	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	52.0	5.3
– Net Position:	20,857	-27,511	6,654
– Gross Longs:	111,193	243,793	34,073
– Gross Shorts:	90,336	271,304	27,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.2	68.3	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	17.2	-11.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 135,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	34.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.5	63.1	6.0
– Net Position:	135,583	-155,771	20,188
– Gross Longs:	165,856	189,857	53,081
– Gross Shorts:	30,273	345,628	32,893
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.9	22.7	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.4	-43.3	28.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 42,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	36.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	50.2	11.9
– Net Position:	42,815	-39,405	-3,410
– Gross Longs:	80,267	103,122	30,490
– Gross Shorts:	37,452	142,527	33,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	74.6	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-46.9	40.1	56.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	38.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	31.4	11.0
– Net Position:	-10,448	14,461	-4,013
– Gross Longs:	58,052	75,446	17,383
– Gross Shorts:	68,500	60,985	21,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	83.3	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	4.2	-15.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	49.7	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	51.3	6.4
– Net Position:	3,780	-3,342	-438
– Gross Longs:	58,487	104,658	12,956
– Gross Shorts:	54,707	108,000	13,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	88.1	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.9	42.8	-53.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 75,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.5	27.2	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	53.3	3.8
– Net Position:	75,784	-78,125	2,341
– Gross Longs:	129,944	81,118	13,726
– Gross Shorts:	54,160	159,243	11,385
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	13.6	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-5.3	-5.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	32.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	18.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-59,038	58,799	239
– Gross Longs:	128,375	140,853	36,304
– Gross Shorts:	187,413	82,054	36,065
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	75.9	68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	0.4	-11.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

17 Nov

Hydrogen Firm Craters Over Liquidity Concerns

Source: Streetwise Reports (11/16/23)

Many people consider hydrogen an important part of the emerging green economy. However, one major player in the field for the past 20 years is facing new and growing issues.

Plug Power Inc. (PLUG:NASDAQ) has spent the past two decades trying to position itself as a provider of turnkey hydrogen fuel cell turnkey solutions. It provides electrolyzers that allow industrial refueling stations to generate hydrogen on-site for use as a fuel.

Plug Power focuses on using this fuel for industrial mobility applications, including electric forklifts and electric industrial vehicles, as well as stationary power systems that support critical operations, such as data centers, microgrids, and generation facilities.

Its technologies are designed to be used in both backup power and continuous power roles, with the ultimate goal of replacing batteries, diesel generators, and the grid for telecommunication logistics, transportation, and utility customers.

The company’s products include GenDrive, GenFuel, GenCare, GenSure, GenKey, ProGen, Electrolyzers, Liquefaction Systems and Cryogenic Equipment. It serves the North American and European material handling markets. It is based in Latham, New York.

Collapsing Share Price, Market Confidence

On November 13, Investing.com reported that “Plug Power shares slipped in premarket U.S. trading, extending a steep loss posted on Friday, after Morgan Stanley slashed its share price target of the hydrogen fuel cell system developer in the wake of a going concern warning.”

Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for Plug Power from US$9.00 to US$3.50, explaining that it expects “valuation pressure will remain until the company, at a minimum, improves its liquidity position.”

“[We] believe the next three to four months will be consequential in rebuilding investor confidence in the business model,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.

Morgan Stanley lowered its price target for Plug Power from US$9.00 to US$3.50, explaining that it expects “valuation pressure will remain until the company, at a minimum, improves its liquidity position.”

This considerable valuation downgrade comes after Plug Power raised doubts about its own viability last week. In a regulatory filing, the company estimated that its “existing cash and available for sale and equity securities will not be sufficient to fund its operations” over a 12-month horizon.

Quite simply, the company was expressing that it would need to secure additional capital in order to stay in business, a concern that the Morgan Stanley analysts echoed. Plug Power claims it is facing a “historically difficult” hydrogen supply environment, especially in North America, where it is facing “multiple frequent force majeure events.”

Shares in the company lost more than 40% of their value on Friday, and the company as a whole has lost over half of its market capitalization since the start of the year.

Hydrogen Hype Hides Inefficiencies

Hydrogen as a fuel has a long and storied history, but the tech and associated supply lines have never really matured in a manner capable of causing a green revolution. In fact, over two years ago, Forbes was already asking, “Why Are We Still Talking About Hydrogen?” In that insightful piece, James Morris examined the many impediments to widespread hydrogen adoption.

Chief among these is that “It can’t seem to escape how massively inefficient it is compared to battery-powered alternatives.”

“The flaw is basically caused by the laws of physics,” Morris explains. “For hydrogen to be completely green, it must be produced by electrolyzing water, which splits this into the H₂ and O that it is made of.

New Constructs credit rating issued a suspended neutral rating for Plug Power on November 11, classing the company’s Adjusted Debt to Capital and Adjusted Cash to Debt ratios as “Very Attractive” while listing the Adjusted EBITDA to Debt and Adjusted FCF (3yr avg) to Debt ratios, as well as the Adjusted Interest Coverage, as “Very Unattractive.”

You can produce H₂ from fossil fuels (usually methane), but this creates either “gray” hydrogen (which still produces lots of CO₂) or “blue” hydrogen (which captures 90% of the CO₂ and stores it, merely delaying the problem). Only electrolyzing hydrogen from water using electricity generated from renewable sources makes the fuel entirely green.”

“This is an inefficient system that wastes energy,” Morris continues. “According to a frequently cited study by Transport & Environment, the process of electrolyzing hydrogen already loses 30% of the energy from the process of splitting the H₂ from the O. You then have another 26% loss of the remaining energy from transporting the hydrogen to the fuel station, meaning you’ve already lost a total of 48% of the energy before any hydrogen makes it into a vehicle.”

“You can save some of this by making hydrogen on-site,” — which is the model Plug Power is attempting to develop — “but electrolysis plants cost millions, so they will more likely be centralized.

In comparison, the typical loss from transferring electricity over wires to a charging station is just 5%, so you still have 95% left.”

Non-Automotive Solutions

Now, there’s a valid argument that Plug Power isn’t competing in the automotive market but rather in the industrial space. However, as electric vehicle technology grows in popularity, we will inevitably see spillover into industrial uses, such as forklift operation, further squeezing the market for on-site industrial solutions.

In addition, poor efficiency is only one of the concerns associated with the increased use of hydrogen fuel in industrial settings. Writing for Issues in Science and Technology, Joseph J. Romm explains that “hydrogen has its own major safety issues. It is highly flammable, with an ignition energy that is 20 times smaller than that of natural gas or gasoline. It can be ignited by cell phones or by electrical storms located miles away.”

“Hence,” he writes, “leaks pose a significant fire hazard, particularly because they are hard to detect. Hydrogen is odorless, and the addition of common odorants such as sulfur is impractical, in part because they poison fuel cells. Hydrogen burns nearly invisibly, and people have unwittingly stepped into hydrogen flames.”

“Hydrogen can cause many metals, including the carbon steel widely used in gas pipelines, to become brittle. In addition, any high-pressure storage tank presents a risk of rupture. For these reasons, hydrogen is subject to strict and cumbersome codes and standards, especially when used in an enclosed space where a leak might create a growing gas bubble.”

These strict use codes further hamper the industry’s ability to endorse and onboard hydrogen solutions, even where they would otherwise be a decent fit.

“Some 22% or more of hydrogen accidents are caused by undetected hydrogen leaks,” Romm reports.

Such leaks occur “despite the special training, standard operating procedures, protective clothing, electronic flame gas detectors provided to the limited number of hydrogen workers,” writes Russell Moy, former group leader for energy storage programs at Ford, in the November 2003 Energy Law Journal, concluding that “with this track record, it is difficult to imagine how hydrogen risks can be managed acceptably by the general public when wide-scale deployment of the safety precautions would be costly and public compliance impossible to ensure.”

Why Now? Massive Discount

Given the realities of the hydrogen market and the considerable barriers to its growth mentioned above, it might be easy to give up on Plug Power. Clearly, many former shareholders have already made that determination.

That said, where some see crisis, others see opportunity. If you’ve been looking for an undervalued pathway into the hydrogen market in particular — perhaps as a hedge against electric vehicles or even fossil fuels — this massive writedown could be just the goad you need to pick up a position after someone else has eaten a major loss.

However, if you choose to play in these waters, remember that volatility is the name of the game. Third-party advisors seem more unsure of what to do with Plug Power than any stock in recent memory.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Plug Power Inc. (PLUG:NASDAQ)

	Institutions: 56.95%
	Retail: 33.08%
	Strategic Investors: 9.08%
	Management & Insiders: 0.89%

57.0%

33.1%

9.1%

^*Share Structure as of 11/16/2023

Source: Thomson Reuters

For example, New Constructs credit rating issued a suspended neutral rating for Plug Power on November 11, classing the company’s Adjusted Debt to Capital and Adjusted Cash to Debt ratios as “Very Attractive” while listing the Adjusted EBITDA to Debt and Adjusted FCF (3yr avg) to Debt ratios, as well as the Adjusted Interest Coverage, as “Very Unattractive.”

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Reuters, 0.89% of the company is owned by management and insiders. Out of this group, Director and Chairman of the Board George McNamee has the most at 0.15%, with 0.94 million shares.

9.08% is with one strategic investor, SK Inc., which owns 9.08%, at 54.97 million shares.

56.95% is held by institutions. Top investors in this category include The Vangaurd Group Inc. at 8.85%, with 53.60 million shares, and BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. at 4.98%, with 30.16 million.

The rest is with retail investors.

Plug Power Inc. has a market cap of US$2.13 billion with 605.5 million shares outstanding.

Important Disclosures:

Owen Ferguson wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Energy Financial News

17 Nov

Real Estate Co. Shares News We’ve Been Waiting For

Source: Ron Struthers (11/16/23)

Recently, Greenbriar Capital Corp. shared news that has Ron Struthers of Struthers Resource Stock Report giving it a Strong Buy rating.

Greenbriar Capital TSXV:GRB OTC:GEBRF Recent Price – $1.11 Entry Price – $1.15 Opinion – Strong Buy

Greenbriar Capital Corp. (GRB:TSX.V; GEBRF:OTC) announced that their 995-home sustainable entry-level residential subdivision, Sage Ranch in California, has received Planning Commission approval for the Precise Development Plan (“PDP”) at the November 13, 2023 Planning Commission meeting.

Wow! This is huge news we have been waiting for. Just consider it lucky that this development was not in Canada because it would have probably taken another two years to get approved. Construction will soon start, and Greenbriar will sell around 140+ plus homes per year for about six years. I can give a more solid revenue projection when we see what the first homes sell for, but some simple round numbers of $100,000 profit per home on 140 homes is US$14 million per year revenue.

Greenbriar only has 35 million shares out, so a measly $39 million market cap.

Jeff Ciachurski CEO of Greenbriar, says: “The City has requested our team meet with the city staff within the next day or two to get everyone moving forward to obtain the necessary construction permits. Sage Ranch was purchased by the company 12 years ago, and today marks a huge milestone to have a 995-home project approved in the State of California. We congratulate city staff, the Planning Commission, the City Council, and our Greenbriar engineering, building, and architectural teams for this gold medal effort.”

From an environmental standpoint, Sage Ranch will be a low-carbon showcase. Nowhere in the subdivision will any resident be more than a short three (3) block walk to either elementary, middle, or high schools. Match this with State-mandated solar roofs, smart meters, optional battery storage and EV charging, smart appliances, and energy-efficient building techniques; Sage Ranch amounts to an exceptional model of environmental planning and carbon reduction.

Greenbriar is also named as one of the top performers on the TSXV Venture Exchange. The 2023 TSX Venture 50 celebrates the strongest performances on the TSXV over the last year.

The Top 50 ranking is selected from 1,713 TSXV public companies. It is great the stock is among the top, but in reality, GRB stock is about even on the year or down a bit, proving how bad the TSXV has been.

‘

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of: Greenbriar Capital Corp.
Ron Struthers: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Greenbriar Capital. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Struthers Resource Stock Report Disclosures

All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author’s control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment adviser to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial adviser & is not acting as such in this publication.

Financial News Real Estate

17 Nov

Oil prices fell to a 4-month low. China’s economy shows signs of recovery

By JustMarkets

US stock indices traded flat yesterday amid disappointing corporate earnings results. Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell by 11%, sending technology stocks tumbling after cutting its full-year earnings forecast. Also down more than 7% were shares of retailer Walmart (WMT) after it struck a cautious tone on the outlook for US shoppers. In addition, a more than 3% drop in the price of WTI crude oil to a near four-month low pressured energy stocks. At the stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.13%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 0.12%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) is up by 0.07%.

US weekly jobless claims rose by 32,000 to a two-year high of 1.865 million, indicating a weak labor market versus expectations of 1.843 million. Additionally, October manufacturing production fell by 0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% m/m and the largest decline in 4 months.

The US Senate voted 87-11 on Wednesday night to pass a temporary funding measure to avert a government shutdown. President Biden will now sign the bill into law. The measure would fund some parts of the government through January 19 and others through February 2.

Equity markets in Europe traded all without any momentum. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.24%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.57% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 1.01%.

Crude oil and gasoline prices fell sharply on Thursday, with crude oil falling to a 4-month low and gasoline falling to an 11-month low. Crude oil prices weathered Wednesday’s negative impact when the EIA reported that weekly crude inventories rose more than expected. Additionally, crude oil funds saw selling on Thursday as weaker-than-expected global economic news weighs on the energy demand outlook.

Natural gas prices declined on Thursday after the EIA’s weekly natural gas inventories rose more than expected. Natural gas inventories rose 60 Bcf last week, above expectations of 42 bcf and well above the 5-year average of 20 bcf.

Asian markets were mostly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.28% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.36% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.67% for Thursday.

Yesterday, Australian employment data for October was released, which showed a good result: plus 55k jobs vs. 22.8k expected, while the unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 3.7%, in line with expectations. AUD/USD reaction was subdued as markets remain convinced that the RBA has peaked on interest rates.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the only major central bank in the world to maintain negative interest rates and has yet to show any signs of abandoning unprecedented easing measures. Moreover, Wednesday’s dismal GDP report, which showed that the economy contracted for the first time in three quarters, should allow the BoJ to postpone any policy changes, retreating from its ambitious monetary easing course. This, in turn, could undermine the Japanese yen (JPY) and contribute to a new rise in USD/JPY quotes.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday that retail sales of consumer goods, a key indicator of consumption growth, rose 7.6% year-on-year in October, the fastest pace since May and accelerating from the 5.5% growth recorded in September. Industrial production also beat market expectations, rising at a 4.6% annualized rate in October, accelerating from September’s 4.5% increase. This growth was also the strongest since April. Employment remained broadly stable, with the unemployment rate at 5% in October, unchanged from September. Considering the main economic indicators, the economy has maintained a steady recovery momentum and has laid a solid foundation for achieving full-year growth targets.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,508.26 +5.38 (+0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,945.60 −45.61 (−0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 15,786.61 +38.44 (+0.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,410.97 −75.94 (−1.01%)

USD Index 104.42 +0.02 (+0.02%)

News feed for 2023.11.17:

– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

16 Nov

Murrey Math Lines 16.11.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a possible development of a downtrend. However, the RSI is already in the oversold area. As a result, the quotes are expected to rise above 2/8 (0.8911), reaching the resistance level of 3/8 (0.8977). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of 1/8 (0.8850). In this case, the pair might drop to the support at 0/8 (0.8789).

On M15, a breakout of the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a price rise.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, revealing the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has broken the resistance line. In this case, the quotes are expected to rise above 7/8 (1968.75), followed by a rise to the resistance level of 8/8 (2000.00). The scenario might be cancelled by a downward breakout of 6/8 (1937.50), which could lead to a trend reversal and a decline to the support at 5/8 (1906.25).

On M15, a breakout of the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a further price rise.

Article By RoboForex.com

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Nov

Massachusetts Biotech Advances Novel Cytokine Therapies

Source: Dr. Robert Driscoll (11/15/23)

Wedbush sees over 300% upside for Werewolf stock based on early clinical success for its PREDATOR platform and pipeline, according to a WedBush research note.

Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Werewolf Therapeutics Inc. (HOWL:NASDAQ) reported Q3 2023 results and progress for its pipeline of INDUKINE product candidates, noted Wedbush analyst Dr. Robert Driscoll in a November 15 research report.

The analysts have an Outperform rating and US$9 price target on Werewolf Therapeutics.

Early Efficacy Signals Seen for Lead Candidate

According to the analysts, Werewolf’s WTX-124 INDUKINE therapy has shown initial proof-of-concept with a differentiated safety profile compared to standard high-dose IL-2 and evidence of antitumor activity in early studies.

At the 12 mg dose, WTX-124 yielded a partial response in a melanoma patient and disease control in lung cancer patients. The company is now testing an 18 mg dose cohort.

The analysts believe this data validates Werewolf’s novel INDUKINE approach to conditionally activating cytokines within tumors while limiting systemic toxicity.

Advancing Broad Pipeline

Beyond WTX-124, Werewolf is evaluating the second INDUKINE candidate, WTX-330, in dose escalation and plans to share preclinical data on WTX-518 in 2024.

The company is also progressing IL-21 INDUKINE WTX-712 towards the clinic based on encouraging preclinical results.

Significant Upside from Current Levels

Wedbush maintains an Outperform rating on Werewolf Therapeutics and a US$9 price target, seeing over 300% upside for the shares.

The firm’s valuation is based on projected 2031 sales for WTX-124 applied to standard revenue multiples.

In summary, the analysts see Werewolf’s INDUKINE platform and early WTX-124 efficacy as validating the company’s novel approach to cytokine therapies in oncology. With multiple clinical catalysts upcoming, they view the risk/reward as favorable.

Important Disclosures:

The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Disclosures for Wedbush, Werewolf Therapeutics, November 15, 2023

Analyst Certification We, Robert Driscoll, Ritika Das and Sam Ravina, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal opinions and that we have not and will not, directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with our specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

Company Specific Disclosures This information is subject to change at any time. 1. WS makes a market in the securities of Werewolf Therapeutics.

OTHER DISCLOSURES The information herein is based on sources that we consider reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The information contained herein is not a representation by this corporation, nor is any recommendation made herein based on any privileged information. This information is not intended to be nor should it be relied upon as a complete record or analysis: neither is it an offer nor a solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security mentioned herein. This firm, Wedbush Securities, its officers, employees, and members of their families, or any one or more of them, and its discretionary and advisory accounts, may have a position in any security discussed herein or in related securities and may make, from time to time, purchases or sales thereof in the open market or otherwise. The information and expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without further notice. The herein mentioned securities may be sold to or bought from customers on a principal basis by this firm. Additional information with respect to the information contained herein may be obtained upon request. Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see pages 3–7 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information. Retail Investors The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individual recommendation or personalized investment advice. The companies/investments mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review their own respective situation(s) before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice due to shifting market(s), economic or political conditions. Investment involves risks including the risk of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Financial News Healthcare Stock Market News

16 Nov

SPX500_m bulls eye key resistance level

By ForexTime

SPX500_m up 2% so far this week

Incoming US data and Fed speeches could trigger volatility

Prices firmly bullish on D1 timeframe but RSI overbought

Key resistance level found at 4525

Possible breakout on horizon

The SPX500_m has gained 2% so far this week thanks to growing investor optimism around the era of Fed hikes coming to an end.

The cooler-than-expected US CPI data on Tuesday boosted bets over the Fed done with raising rates. Yesterday’s soft PPI and retail sales report reinforced these expectations with traders currently pricing in a 25 basis-point rate cut by June 2024.

We could see some more action on the SPX500_m today due to US economic data, speeches by Fed officials, and quarterly earnings from Walmart released before US markets open.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the SPX500_m could be in the process of another breakout or technical throwback. Prices have created a minor range on the H4 charts with the big resistance at 4525 and minor support at 4490.

Looking at the daily timeframe, bulls have been on a roll over the past few days with the SPX500_m rallying over 7% since the start of November. However, bulls are currently eyeing a significant resistance level at 4525.

Note: the last time prices secured a daily close above this point was at the start of August 2023.

There is a similar theme on the weekly charts with the powerful rebound at the start of November providing a foundation for bulls to test new highs. Beyond 4525, the next resistance can be found at 4600 – near the 2023 high.

Zooming out to the monthly, bulls seem to be regaining momentum with a solid monthly close back above 4600 opening the doors to the all-time high created at the start of 2022.

Placing our focus back on the daily timeframe, it’s all about the 4525 level.

Prices are trading well above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA however the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that prices are overbought.

A strong daily close above 4525 could trigger a move towards 4600.
Should prices remain trapped below 4525, prices may decline back towards 4470 and 4410 – where the 100-day SMA resides.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

15 Nov

Japan’s GDP contracted in the third quarter. The UK has seen inflation fall sharply

By JustMarkets

Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday and bond yields were down after US consumer prices fell more than expected in October, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain its pause. As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 1.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped 1.91%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.37%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) indices hit two-month highs, while the Nasdaq (US100) index hit a 3-month-high.

October US CPI declined to 3.2% y/y from 3.7% y/y in September, which was better than expectations of 3.3% y/y. In addition, the core CPI excluding food and energy declined to 4.0% y/y from 4.1% y/y in September, which was better than expected and the smallest increase in two years.

Comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin indicated that he favors maintaining a pause in Fed rate hikes when he stated that the impact of rate hikes may be delayed, but with rates capped, the Fed has time to monitor the economy.

A negative factor for stocks continues to be a possible US government shutdown. The US lawmakers have until Friday evening to pass a temporary spending bill before funding runs out and the government shuts down.

Equity markets in Europe rose steadily on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.76%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.39% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.72%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.20%.

Good news for the Bank of England: services inflation fell even more than expected. Services inflation came in below the Bank of England’s October forecast and that pretty much rules out further rate tightening this year. Last year’s 25% rise in household energy tariffs disappeared from annual comparisons, and electricity/gas prices fell by 7% in October this year. And while that drop was a much smaller factor, food price inflation also slowed significantly. As a result, the core CPI is now at 4.6% y/y, down from 6.7% y/y in September.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 0.34% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.17% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.83%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected additional funds to support the weak economy. Although the one-year medium-term lending rate (1Y MLF) was left at 2.5%, the Bank of China injected 600 billion yuan (over and above the amount due) to support stimulus spending. Increased funding will support a recovery in activity.

A former senior Japanese financial official said on Wednesday that the weakening yen could be caused not only by the interest rate differential between Japan and the US, but also by structural factors such as the deteriorating fiscal situation. Under such conditions, any currency interventions by the authorities will not help to reverse the situation on the market.

Japan’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.5% in Q3. On an annualized basis, Japan’s economy contracted by 2.1%, well above expectations of a 0.6% contraction and a sharp pullback from the 4.5% growth in the previous quarter. The figure was the first contraction in Japan’s GDP in three quarters and signaled that consumption-driven growth in Japan’s economy may be slowing after booming earlier this year.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,495.70 +84.15 (+1.91%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,827.70 +489.83 (+1.43%)

DAX (DE40) 15,614.43 +269.43 (+1.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,440.47 +14.64 (+0.20%)

USD Index 104.08 −1.55 (−1.47%)

News feed for 2023.11.14:

– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Nov

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Gold heading back towards $2000?

By ForexTime

Gold boosted by fundamental forces

Technical indicators signal further upside

Time for bulls to step into a higher gear?

All eyes on key psychological $2000 level

Gold glittered on Wednesday after jumping over 1% in the previous session.

The precious metal drew strength from a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields following the softer-than-expected US inflation data on Tuesday.

This data has knocked the probability of another Fed hike to almost zero with traders pricing in a 50-basis point rate cut by July 2024, according to Fed Funds futures.

Given gold’s zero-yielding nature, further gains could be on the cards as expectations rise over the Fed cutting interest rates in 2024. It will be wise to keep a close eye on the incoming US retail sales data among other key reports and speeches by Federal Reserve officials this week which could influence expectations around what the Fed does beyond 2023 – ultimately impacting gold prices.

Focusing on the technical picture, gold could push higher if a daily close above $1968 is achieved.

After rebounding from the 200-day SMA earlier this week, bulls have been armed with the technical and fundamental ammunition to attack the psychological $2000 level once again.

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to hit overbought conditions – signaling room for further upside.

On the weekly charts, the trend flipped back in favor of bulls in October after prices breached the bearish channel. However, a solid close above the $2000 resistance is needed for bulls to step into a higher gear.

Taking a brief look at the monthly timeframe, prices remain in a very wide range with key resistance at $2000 and support at $1800. It is worth noting that gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level. Given the solid monthly candle in October and strong fundamental drivers supporting bulls, a significant move could be on the horizon.

Redirecting our attention back to the daily timeframe, bulls look to be in a position of power with all eyes on $2000.

A strong daily close above $1968 may open the doors back towards $2000, $2010, and $2018, respectively.
Should prices remain capped below $1968, this could trigger a decline back towards $1945 and $1934 – where the 200-day SMA resides.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals

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Archive for Financial News – Page 171

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Collapsing Share Price, Market Confidence

Hydrogen Hype Hides Inefficiencies

Non-Automotive Solutions

Why Now? Massive Discount

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Ownership and Share Structure

Greenbriar Capital TSXV:GRB OTC:GEBRF Recent Price – $1.11 Entry Price – $1.15 Opinion – Strong Buy

Early Efficacy Signals Seen for Lead Candidate

Advancing Broad Pipeline

Significant Upside from Current Levels

The SPX500_m has gained 2% so far this week thanks to growing investor optimism around the era of Fed hikes coming to an end.

We could see some more action on the SPX500_m today due to US economic data, speeches by Fed officials, and quarterly earnings from Walmart released before US markets open.

A strong daily close above 4525 could trigger a move towards 4600.

Should prices remain trapped below 4525, prices may decline back towards 4470 and 4410 – where the 100-day SMA resides.

Gold glittered on Wednesday after jumping over 1% in the previous session.

This data has knocked the probability of another Fed hike to almost zero with traders pricing in a 50-basis point rate cut by July 2024, according to Fed Funds futures.

After rebounding from the 200-day SMA earlier this week, bulls have been armed with the technical and fundamental ammunition to attack the psychological $2000 level once again.

A strong daily close above $1968 may open the doors back towards $2000, $2010, and $2018, respectively.

Should prices remain capped below $1968, this could trigger a decline back towards $1945 and $1934 – where the 200-day SMA resides.