InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.65%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.48% yesterday. Stocks closed moderately higher on Tuesday amid mostly better-than-expected corporate earnings results.

The US economic news released Tuesday was mixed for the dollar and stock indices. On the positive side, the third quarter labor cost index rose by 1.1%, stronger than expectations of an additional 1.0%. In addition, the S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index for August rose by 2.16% year-over-year, which was stronger than expectations of 1.75% and was the most significant increase in 7 months. On the bearish side, the Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index for October fell by 1.7 to a 5-month low of 102.6. In addition, the October Chicago PMI unexpectedly declined by 0.1 to 44.0, weaker than expectations of a rise to 45.0.

In the Middle East, Iran’s foreign minister on Tuesday called for utilizing the “last political opportunities” to end the war between Israel and Hamas. It was also reported that Yemen fired a ballistic missile at Israel, which was successfully shot down.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.64%, French CAC 40 (FR40) yesterday rose by 0.89%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.02%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.08%.

October Eurozone CPI declined to 2.9% y/y from 4.3%, weaker than expectations of 3.1% y/y and the lowest increase in 2 years. Core CPI slipped to 4.2% y/y in October from 4.5% y/y in September, which matched expectations and was the lowest reading in 15 months. Eurozone GDP declined 0.1% q/q in Q3 but grew 0.1% y/y, weaker than expected. German retail sales for September unexpectedly fell by 0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m. Stournaras of the ECB Governing Council said that he believes interest rates in the Eurozone have peaked. He would consider cutting interest rates if inflation falls consistently and steadily below the 3% threshold in mid-2024.

Oil prices initially went up on Tuesday on fears that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could escalate on reports that Israel is shelling militant targets in Lebanon, which has the potential to widen the conflict. However, Tuesday’s global economic news was weaker than expected and negatively impacted energy demand and crude oil prices.

Asian markets traded without any unified dynamics. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.53% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.69% on the day, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.12% on Tuesday.

Recent Chinese manufacturing activity data indicates that Beijing’s stimulus measures have had a limited economic impact. Additional government spending will likely be required to lift the Chinese economy from a three-year slump. Due to this, investors are largely wary of investing in Chinese markets.

Japanese economic news released on Tuesday was mixed for the yen. On the bearish side, industrial production for September rose by 0.2% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 2.5% m/m. Retail Sales for September unexpectedly declined by 0.1% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 0.2% m/m. In contrast, Consumer Confidence for October unexpectedly rose by 0.5 to 35.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 35.0.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,193.80 +26.98 (+0.65%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,052.87 +123.91 (+0.38%)

DAX (DE40)  14,810.34 +93.80 (+0.64%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,321.72 −5.67 (−0.08%)

USD Index  106.74 +0.62 (+0.58%)

• – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 14:15 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 14:40 (GMT+2);
• – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.58%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.58%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.16% yesterday. Stock indices rose moderately on Monday on the back of a falling dollar, as well as positive corporate news and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals. Pressure on the US dollar is also being exerted by the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave its monetary policy unchanged at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Markets are betting a zero probability that the FOMC will raise rates at its next meeting and an 18% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at its next meeting on December 12-13.

Western Digital shares are up more than 7% after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and announced its intention to split into two public companies. Additionally, shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) closed higher by more than 3%, adding to last Friday’s 7% gain after Guotai Junan Securities raised the company’s price target to $162.80 per share.

The Dallas Fed’s US manufacturing activity index for October unexpectedly fell by 1.1 to minus 19.2, weaker than expectations for a rise to minus 16.0.

Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem urged elected officials to consider the inflationary implications of their spending plans as the Central Bank tries to cool price pressures. Macklem cited slower economic growth and higher interest rates as factors affecting future government budgets. Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will deliver a financial report in the coming weeks.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.20%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.44% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.07%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.50%.

The Eurozone Economic Confidence Index for October fell by 0.1 to 93.3, which was better than expectations of 93.0. German Q3 GDP declined by 0.1% QoQ, stronger than expectations of 0.2% QoQ. The German Consumer Price Index (EU harmonized) for October declined from 4.3% to 3.0% y/y, better than expectations of 3.3% y/y and the lowest inflation rate in 2 years.

ECB Governing Council representative Kazimir said yesterday that forecasts for ECB interest rate cuts in the first half of next year are completely misplaced, and the ECB will have to stay on the cusp over the next few quarters. In contrast, his counterpart, Simkus, believes that the ECB will not raise interest rates at its December meeting, saying that current restrictive levels are sufficient.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 3% yesterday as Israeli military action in the Gaza Strip proceeded at a more cautious pace than expected, easing fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East. In addition, Iran’s foreign ministry said on Monday that Hamas has pledged to release non-Israeli hostages as soon as possible.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.95%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.04% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.79% on Monday. On Tuesday, Asian stocks fell to near one-year lows amid disappointing Chinese manufacturing activity data, while the yen fell to 150 per dollar after the Bank of Japan changed its policy to control bond yields.

At its meeting, the BoJ left the short-term interest rate at minus 0.1% and said it would use the top end of the YCC’s 1% range as the reference limit for its market operations. The move reflects a slight shift to tight YCC policy and may signal some greater flexibility. The BoJ also said it will continue asset purchases and quantitative easing to stimulate the economy, citing continued uncertainty over rising inflation and deteriorating global economic conditions. The statement indicated that the Bank is trying to maintain a balance between supporting the Japanese economy, curbing further weakening of the yen, and simultaneously combating rising inflation. The BoJ also said it expects core consumer inflation to remain above the 2% target through fiscal 2024 and that risks to prices are skewed upward in fiscal 2023.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,166.82 +49.45 (+1.20%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,928.96 +511.37 (+1.58%)

DAX (DE40)  14,716.54 +29.13 (+0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,291.28 +36.11 (+0.50%)

USD Index  106.14 −0.42 (−0.40%)

• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
• – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 04:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+2);
• – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By George Prior

Global financial markets are likely to rally in November and December, predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The bullish prediction from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes despite stock market corrections and weak investor sentiment.

He says: “History shows that November is the second-best month of the year for markets, behind April.

“This November could be even more positive as some markets are currently in correction territory – falling by more than 10% – and so a swing to the upside will be more pronounced.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Over 72 years there have been 34 market declines. Only 12 of these have turned into bear markets. When does a recovery typically happen? 96 days after the start of the correction. We’re now around day 90.

“If all this data holds up, we’re about to see a year-end rally, which investors would not want to miss out on.”

In addition, Nigel Green says that he expects the Federal Reserve will leave US interest rates unchanged this week.

“Investors will be watching this carefully, but the central bank of the world’s largest economy is almost certainly going to hold rates steady on Wednesday, which will be bullish for stock markets.”

Should stock markets emerge from correction territory, investors should consider a few prudent strategies.

First and foremost, maintaining a diversified portfolio remains crucial, as it helps spread risk and minimise exposure to sector-specific fluctuations. Reassess your investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon to ensure your portfolio aligns with your financial objectives.

Sectors that could appeal to investors as markets recover include tech and renewable energy. These sectors have demonstrated resilience and potential for growth even during market downturns.

Additionally, consider allocating funds to undervalued industries that may benefit from economic rebounds, such as travel and leisure, as pent-up consumer demand surges.

Lastly, monitoring the broader economic and geopolitical landscape is vital for informed decision-making, as global events can significantly impact market dynamics. Diversification, research, and a strategic outlook are key as markets exit correction territory.

The deVere CEO concludes: “We expect a rally for the end of 2023. You should consider revising your investment mix to seize the potential opportunities in what we think will be a new phase.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.76%. Stock indices continued to fall yesterday due to weak reports from major technology companies. Shares of Meta Platforms (META) fell more than 5% after weak ad revenue. Meanwhile, shares of Alphabet (GOOG) fell another 2.6%, complementing Wednesday’s 9.28% drop amid a disappointing cloud computing revenue report. Amazon (AMZN) reported third-quarter results that beat Wall Street forecasts as growth in the company’s cloud business continues to stabilize. But the stock price was barely affected by the report.

Stocks also declined yesterday due to tensions in the Middle East following a report that Israel conducted a limited tank invasion of the Gaza Strip before withdrawing troops. Markets expect an all-out ground attack by Israel, which could lead to an expansion of the war to include Hezbollah.

The US economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, with households and construction contributing significantly to growth. However, the unfavorable factors facing the economy and the household sector in particular are intensifying, so economists expect growth to slow to 1.5% in the last three months of the year. Also strong is the 4.7% rise in US durable goods orders for September, which is much stronger than expectations of rising by 1.9%. US weekly jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 210,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market compared to expectations for a rise to 207,000.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.38% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.81%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left key rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with market expectations: the deposit rate at 4.00% and the main refinancing rate at 4.50%. Markets had expected the ECB to suspend its rate hike regime on Thursday, given the weakness in the eurozone economy and the recent rise in European bond yields. There is only a 5% chance of an ECB rate hike at the December meeting, but markets are forecasting an ECB rate cut in 2024.

Natural gas prices rose on Thursday amid a bullish EIA report and forecasts of colder-than-normal weather for next week. Natural gas prices received support from global supply concerns after Chevron shut down a natural gas field in Israel over security concerns related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. As a result of the supply cut, Egypt said it was reviewing plans to export LNG to Europe.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.14%, FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday negative by 0.61%. Uncertainty over the war between Israel and Hamas and rising yields led Asian indices lower this week, while anticipation of a series of central bank meetings next week also made investors largely risk-averse.

With the Bank of Japan conducting another FX intervention yesterday, markets expect the BoJ to consider a change in yield curve management policy next week with an adjustment to the outlook. The latest data showed that Tokyo’s inflation rose more than expected in October, indicating that inflation is picking up again in the country and could lead to a more hawkish bias from the BoJ at its meeting next Tuesday.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,137.23 −49.54 (−1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,784.30 −251.63 (−0.76%)

DAX (DE40)  14,731.05 −161.13 (−1.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,354.57 −59.77 (−0.81%)

USD Index  106.65 +0.12 (+0.11%)

• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Australia Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+3);
• – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.