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COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & Russell-Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (11,895 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (246 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-6,515 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,641 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-2,752 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,346 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-332 contracts).

Stock Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (88 percent) and the VIX (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) and Russell-Mini (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (32 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently followed by the MSCI EAFE-Mini at 34 percent.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (32.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (93.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (78.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (88.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (40.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (37.6 percent)

VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for the stock markets this week.

The Russell-Mini (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-17 percent) coming in as the next lowest market for trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-4.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-15.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-12.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-17.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-32.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-16.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-7.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (0.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -39,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	44.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	32.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-39,071	43,488	-4,417
– Gross Longs:	74,671	152,747	25,470
– Gross Shorts:	113,742	109,259	29,887
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	19.1	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-6.0	13.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -218,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,778 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	74.1	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	68.0	8.0
– Net Position:	-218,530	143,353	75,177
– Gross Longs:	271,870	1,722,121	262,112
– Gross Shorts:	490,400	1,578,768	186,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	59.7	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	17.6	-10.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	52.3	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	70.8	12.3
– Net Position:	16,728	-18,898	2,170
– Gross Longs:	32,293	53,584	14,754
– Gross Shorts:	15,565	72,482	12,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	10.8	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	9.5	4.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	51.8	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	63.0	12.4
– Net Position:	25,561	-32,432	6,871
– Gross Longs:	92,445	148,596	42,460
– Gross Shorts:	66,884	181,028	35,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	16.9	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	11.1	2.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	81.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	77.1	5.2
– Net Position:	-24,205	19,727	4,478
– Gross Longs:	59,033	407,623	30,904
– Gross Shorts:	83,238	387,896	26,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	33.1	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.1	33.1	-21.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	64.9	24.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	52.5	14.9
– Net Position:	-3,720	2,124	1,596
– Gross Longs:	1,852	11,121	4,156
– Gross Shorts:	5,572	8,997	2,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.2	48.8	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	2.4	10.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	87.9	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	82.1	1.9
– Net Position:	-31,202	25,565	5,637
– Gross Longs:	37,822	386,072	14,132
– Gross Shorts:	69,024	360,507	8,495
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.1	63.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.7	-2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 Feb

Rising stock indices overshadowed hawkish speeches by US Fed policymakers. Canada is seeing a drop in retail sales

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.18%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped 2.11% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positively at 2.96%. The S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) set new record highs, while the NASDAQ (US100) set a weekly high. Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than 16% to a record high on Thursday, leading a rally in the chip market after its quarterly earnings results released on Wednesday showed an explosive rise in demand for its artificial intelligence computing hardware.

Hawkish comments from policymakers failed to stop the indices from rising yesterday. Fed spokesman Christopher Waller said Thursday that the Fed should hold off on cutting rates for at least a couple more months to ensure the January inflation report was a fluke and that the Fed is still moving toward its inflation target. He added that acting too soon could squander the central bank’s gains in fighting inflation and cause significant damage to the economy. Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson agreed. He said that the Fed should be on guard against cutting interest rates too much in response to falling inflation because “excessive easing could cause progress in restoring price stability to stall or backslide. In addition, Philadelphia Fed President Harker cautioned against expecting interest rate cuts “right now and immediately” and said the biggest risk is cutting rates too quickly. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 6% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 29% for the April 30-May 1 meeting.

Today, in the US, the minutes from the January FOMC meeting will be released. Investors will be looking for clues on the timing of the first-rate cut. Traders and investors have heard several Fed officials speak since the January meeting, and most preached patience with rates, warning against a premature cut, citing the strength of the US economy. If the minutes strike the same tone, given that the market is still pricing four rate cuts this year while the Fed has signaled only three, the dollar could get a boost. This would hurt stock indices and precious metals.

The latest economic data showed that US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 12,000 to a 5-week low of 201,000, indicating a strengthening labor market versus expectations of a rise to 216,000. The S&P Manufacturing PMI for February rose by 0.8 to a 17-month high of 51.5, stronger than expectations of no change at 50.7. US home sales for January rose by 3.1% to a 5-month high of 4.00 million, stronger than expectations of 3.97 million.

Canadian consumers sharply reduced their spending in January following stronger-than-expected retail purchases late last year. According to Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate released Thursday, retail receipts fell by 0.4%, the biggest decline since March 2023. This followed a 0.9% jump in December. While this data points to strong consumer spending at the end of last year, the sharp decline in January suggests some weakness, especially amid rapid growth in Canada’s population due to immigration. The slowdown in retail consumption is expected to continue as more households renew their mortgages at higher interest rates this year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.47%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.27% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.31% on Thursday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.29%.

Eurozone January CPI declined to 2.8% y/y from 2.9% y/y in December, matching expectations. Core CPI for January was 3.3% y/y, unchanged from December, which was in line with expectations. The report on the ECB’s January 24-25 meeting was hawkish as policymakers said the risk of cutting interest rates too early is more dangerous than cutting too late. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 3% at the next meeting on March 7 and 29% at the April 11 meeting.

Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023 after two consecutive periods of stagnation. Europe’s largest economy has been hit by rising prices, higher borrowing costs, and weak external demand, especially in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Asian markets also rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.19% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended Thursday up 1.45%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day positive 0.04%.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 2.9% in January 2024 from 3.7% in December, well below market forecasts of 3.8%. This marked the lowest inflation rate since September 2021.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate in January 2024 stood at 1.5%, unchanged for the third consecutive month and at its lowest level since February 2021. The data was slightly below market forecasts of 1.6% amid declines in the cost of clothing (0.2% vs. unchanged in December) and communication services (2.4% vs. 3.7%). At the same time, prices continued to rise for food (2.0% vs. 2.3%), housing (2.0% vs. 1.6%), and transportation (0.7% vs. 0.3%).

S&P 500 (US500) 4,981.80 +6.29 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,612.24 +48.44 (+0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 17,118.12 +49.69 (+0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,662.51 −56.70 (−0.73%)

USD Index 103.87 −0.13 (−0.13%)

Important events today:

– US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Employment Rate (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Feb

NVIDIA reported record earnings and issued an encouraging outlook. Traders are no longer reacting to the Fed’s hawkish bias

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.13%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.13% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.32%. Liquidation of long positions in high-yielding artificial intelligence (AI) technology stocks weighed on the overall market on Wednesday ahead of NVIDIA Corporation’s (NVDA) earnings release. But NVDA shares jumped more than 10% in late trading after its quarterly earnings beat forecasts, and the chipmaker predicted better-than-expected revenue in the next quarter.

Minutes from the January 30-31 FOMC meeting proved hawkish, as it said most participants noted the risks of easing policy too quickly and stressed the importance of carefully evaluating incoming data to judge whether inflation is steadily easing to 2%. Fed spokeswoman Bowman said yesterday that given the current economic environment, the time for the Fed to cut interest rates is definitely not now.

FRB Richmond President Barkin also noted that recent economic data suggest that price pressures in some sectors are still too great despite an improving overall inflation picture. But despite the hawkish nature of the remarks, markets reacted calmly, suggesting that investors have postponed their rate cut expectations until later.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.69% on Wednesday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.73%. Following their global peers, European equity markets opened higher on Thursday as an encouraging earnings report from chip giant Nvidia boosted investor confidence. Investors also overlooked the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which indicated the central bank would delay interest rate cuts.

British economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics revised their forecast for the Bank of England’s first June rate cut since May. This adjustment is due to the strategic timing of allowing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to consider additional economic data before making a decision. In particular, waiting until June will allow the MPC to review April labor market data, reflecting the impact of the National Living Wage (NLW) increase on wages.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.26% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 2.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 1.57% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.66% on the day.

Nvidia’s share gains spilled to Asian chipmaker stocks as strong results and guidance suggested increased demand for artificial intelligence developments. Japan’s Advantest Corp. and Taiwan’s TSMC (NYSE: TSM), both suppliers to Nvidia, rose by 4.7% and 1.2%, respectively. The rise in shares of leading tech companies led Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) to jump 1.8% to a record intraday high of 39,001.50 points, breaking the 1989 peak that preceded the deflation of Japan’s huge speculative bubble in the 1990s. But it should be noted that the Bank of Japan’s ultra-soft stance has been one of the main drivers of the rally in Japanese stocks in recent months.

Broader Asian stocks are trading weaker. After seven straight sessions of gains, Chinese stocks were weak on Thursday, as much of the rebound was driven by heavy-handed government restrictions. Beijing banned institutional traders from building sell positions near the market’s open and close.

Australian economists moved their forecasts for the start of the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) easing cycle, reflecting a slight reduction in inflation estimates and bringing them in line with current money market prices. Under the new forecasts, the RBA will cut the money rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.1% in the third quarter of 2024. Judo Bank’s Australian manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7 in February 2024 from 50.1 a month earlier, flash data showed. This was due to a significant drop in new orders, which led to a downturn in production. High interest rates and difficult manufacturing conditions weakened demand, leading to the sharpest decline in output since May 2020. Employment and purchasing activity fell accordingly.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,981.80 +6.29 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,612.24 +48.44 (+0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 17,118.12 +49.69 (+0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,662.51 −56.70 (−0.73%)

USD Index 103.87 −0.13 (−0.13%)

Important events today:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Retail Sales (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Feb

Drone Co.s Revenue and Income Forecasts Climb Through 2025

Source: Dr. Ashok Kumar (2/20/24)

Current released revenues for Red Cat Holdings Inc. show that the company is doing well in the market, noted a Think Equity research note.

Red Cat Holdings Inc.’s (RCAT:NASDAQ) updated third quarter for 2024’s fiscal year shows that the company’s Teal 2 is doing well in the marketplace, according to Think Equity analyst Dr. Ashok Kumar in a February 20 research note.

The company disclosed initial revenue figures for the three-month period, which ended on January 31, 2024, which represents the third fiscal quarter of 2024. Revenue for those months totaled around US$5.8 million. Additionally, the value of confirmed future orders and contracts currently stands at approximately US$5.1 million. For the following fiscal quarter, ending April 30, 2024, revenue estimates come to about US$7 million, based on current projections. Kumar noted that Red Cat is perceiving regained positive momentum after spending 12 months focused on business development and building relationships in NATO member nations and Saudi Arabia.

Finalist for Army’s Drone Program

Kumar stated that Red Cat was chosen as one of the final contenders for the U.S. Army’s Short Range Reconnaissance Tranche 2 drone program. Separately, an unspecified U.S. federal government agency placed orders with Red Cat for 344 drones amounting to around US$5.2 million total.

He also reported that Red Cat also secured a contract with U.S. Customs and Border Protection for 106 of its Teal 2 drone systems. In addition, Red Cat’s drones received Remote ID certification from the Federal Aviation Administration to operate legally in U.S. airspace.

“Teal2 sUAS is now available through the federal government’s GSA Advantage. Red Cat continues its global expansion by entering Latin America,” Kumar said.

IPO With Unusual Machines

Red Cat also shared that Unusual Machines bought two subsidiaries, Rotor Riot and Fat Shark, from the company for a total price of US$20 million. The payment was structured as US$1 million in cash upfront, a US$2 million promissory note from Unusual Machines to Red Cat promising future payment, and US$17 million worth of Unusual Machines stock, which at the current valuation equals 4,250,000 shares. After finalizing this acquisition deal, Red Cat will hold a 48.66% ownership stake in Unusual Machines based on the outstanding common shares of Unusual Machines.

Midterm Revenue and Catalysts

For the upcoming fourth quarter financial period, the projected revenue goal is US$7 million. Achieving that quarterly target would amount to an annual revenue pace of US$28 million within only nine months of introducing the Teal 2 drone system to market. Looking even further ahead to the 2025 fiscal year, current forecasts have estimated annual revenue of US$35 million based on current business performance and expected further expansion.

“We forecast total revenues to grow from US$9.9 million in fiscal 2023 to US$35.0 million in fiscal 2025. Over the same period, we expect operating income to improve from US$27 million to US$9 million,” Kumar wrote.

Kumar pointed out that some primary catalysts for the rest of 2024 will be to increase revenue, improve gross profit margins, and keep operating expenses under control. With the recent influx of capital from an initial public offering with Unusual Machines that raised US$1 million, Kumar believes that the company now has the necessary funding to work toward achieving those key objectives over the course of the next year.

With this, Kumar gave Red Cat Holdings Inc. a Buy rating with a US$5 target price.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Red Cat Holdings Inc.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Disclosures for Think Equity, Red Cat Holdings Inc., February 20, 2024

Analyst Certification The analyst, Ashok Kumar, responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

Financial Interests The analyst, Ashok Kumar, has no financial interest in the debt or equity securities of the subject company of this report. Further, no member of his household has any financial interest in the securities of the subject company. Neither the analyst, nor any member of his household, is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is the subject of this research report. The analyst has not received compensation from the subject company. The CEO of ThinkEquity, LLC., owns shares in the company. At the time of this research report, the analyst does not know, or have reason to know, of any other material conflict of interest.

Company Specific Disclosures ThinkEquity, LLC is a member of FINRA and SIPC. ThinkEquity, LLC or an affiliate has a client relationship with and has received compensation from this subject company Red Cat Holdings, Inc. in the last 12 months.

ThinkEquity, LLC ThinkEquity, LLC is a member of FINRA and SIPC. ThinkEquity expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking business from the subject company in the next three months. ThinkEquity does not make a market in the securities of the subject company of this report at the time of publication. ThinkEquity does not hold a beneficial ownership of more than 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. This report is for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. While the information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we have not independently verified the information and we do not represent or guarantee that the report is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any references or citations to, or excerpts from, third-party information or data sources (including, but not limited to, Bloomberg and Capital IQ) do not and are not intended to provide financial or investment advice and are not to be relied upon by anyone as providing financial or investment advice. Based on public information available to us, prices and opinions expressed in this report reflect judgments as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The securities covered by or mentioned in this report involve substantial risk and should generally be purchased only by investors able to accept such risk. This research report and the securities mentioned herein, some of which may not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, are intended only for Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), as defined under Rule 144A. Any opinions expressed assume that this type of investment is suitable for the investor.

Financial News Stock Market News

21 Feb

Canada is seeing a sharp decline in inflation. SNB continues to increase foreign exchange reserves

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.17% at the close of the stock market yesterday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.92%. The broad market was under pressure yesterday as weakness in chip maker stocks led to a decrease in the technology sector. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 5%, leading to a decline in technology sector stocks ahead of Wednesday’s fourth-quarter earnings results.

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell more than 3% after Phillip Securities downgraded the stock to “neutral.” Airbnb (ABNB) is down more than 3% after Phillip Securities downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy”. Caterpillar (CAT) is down 1% after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy”. Walmart (WMT) is up over 4%, leading the Dow Jones Industrials, after the company reported Q4 comparable sales rose by 3.9%, which was stronger than the consensus forecast of 3.2%.

Canada’s annual inflation rate for January 2024 fell to 2.9%, the lowest since June, from 3.4% the previous month and well below market expectations of 3.3%. The result marked a sharp reversal from the significant reading in December, renewing hopes for disinflation in the Canadian economy and strengthening the case for more easing measures from the Bank of Canada (BoC) on rising growth concerns.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) was up 0.34%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped 0.94% on Tuesday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.12%.

The latest ECB report showed that Eurozone wage growth slowed to 4.5% in the final quarter of last year from a record 4.7% in the previous period. This confirmed market expectations that while wage growth has peaked, it is still well above the level consistent with 2% inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently said she prefers to wait for the outcome of the first quarter wage agreement before considering a rate cut. Other policymakers have supported the cautious sentiment for monetary easing, suggesting that rate cuts are possible this year but refraining from giving a specific timeline for such moves.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may start cutting its benchmark discount rate in the year’s first half, including possibly a March cut. The SNB also increased its foreign exchange reserves for the second consecutive month in January, indicating a recovery from a prolonged decline over the past two years that has seen reserve levels hit seven-year lows.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.28% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.57% on Tuesday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.08% on the day. Hong Kong stocks (HK50) soared to a seven-week high of 16,615 in Wednesday morning trading, rising for a second straight session, amid rising bets that China’s central bank may go for more policy easing this year after a record cut in the main 5-year lending rate on Tuesday, as policymakers seek to support economic growth. Economists say China’s increased stimulus could boost its growth and positively impact the global economy.

Japan’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to JPY1,758.311 billion in January 2024 from JPY3,506.43 billion in the same period of the previous year. Exports rose by 11.9% Y/Y to JPY7,332.65 bln, the highest in 14 months, helped by strong demand from the US and China. Meanwhile, imports fell 9.6% YoY to JPY9,090.97 bln, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline driven by lower energy prices. The Tankan sentiment index for manufacturers in Japan fell sharply to negative 1 in February 2024 from plus 6 in January, adding to fears of a further economic slowdown.

Australian wages rose by 4.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, beating forecasts for a 4.2% increase and the highest since the first quarter of 2009. Wage growth tends to be accompanied by rising inflation figures. This could eventually lead to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holding rates for longer than forecast.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,975.51 −30.06 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,563.80 −64.19 (−0.17%)

DAX (DE40) 17,068.43 −23.83 (−0.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,719.21 −9.29 (−0.12%)

USD Index 104.00 −0.08 (−0.07%)

Important events today:

– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Wage Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Feb

European indices set new price highs. PBoC cut the rate on 5-year loans

By JustMarkets

Due to a bank holiday, the US stock market was not trading on Monday.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) lost 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.01% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.59% on Monday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.22%. The FTSE 100 Index gained momentum and closed at 7730 on Monday, its highest level all year. Investors are gearing up for the week ahead as key data such as the flash Eurozone PMI and final inflation data will be released. The market also looks forward to the Fed and ECB meeting minutes and semiconductor giant Nvidia Corp’s (NVDA) earnings report.

Silver (XAGUSD) prices are trading around $23 an ounce, moving away from the seven-week high of $23.4 an ounce reached on February 16, as traders continue adjusting their bets on a Fed rate cut. Upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and statements from Fed officials will provide more clues as to when the first rate cut may occur. Originally expected to be cut in March, there is now a 53% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in June. Silver prices are expected to rise this year thanks to a weaker dollar and lower Treasury bond yields as the Fed moves to looser monetary policy.

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil prices held near three-week highs above $83 a barrel as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to raise supply concerns. The Houthi rebel group in Yemen launched fresh strikes on shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, with at least four more ships hit by drone strikes or missiles since Friday. Investors were also cheered by strong travel data from China, a significant importer of crude oil.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.04% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.82% after the holidays, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.13% on Monday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.09% on the day.

The offshore yuan (CNY) is holding near 7.20 per dollar as investors reacted to the central bank’s latest decision. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its main five-year lending rate by 25 basis points to 3/95%, beating forecasts for a 15 bps cut. It was the most aggressive cut since this rate was introduced in 2019 as China continues to struggle with a sluggish economic recovery. Meanwhile, the PBoC left the one-year lending rate unchanged at 3.45%. Earlier this week, investors were cheered by strong travel data from China during the Lunar New Year celebrations, which exceeded pre-New Year’s Eve levels this year.

The Australian dollar fell to $0.652, pulling back from two-week highs, as investors digested the latest central bank meeting minutes. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) February meeting discussed the possibility of further interest rate hikes but ultimately decided to maintain current monetary settings given signs of moderate inflation. The RBA also indicated it needed more time to see if inflation was returning to target before ruling out the possibility of further rate hikes. Markets expect the central bank to cut interest rates by a total of about 40 basis points this year, with the first move coming in August.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,005.57 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,627.99 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 17,092.26 −25.18 (−0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,728.50 +16.79 (+0.22%)

USD Index 104.24 −0.05 (−0.05%)

Important events today:

– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China PBoC Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Feb

Trade Of The Week: EURUSD waits for directional spark

By ForexTime

EURUSD enters standby mode

EU data + ECB minutes in focus

USD volatility could trigger breakout

Key levels of interest at 1.0800 & 1.0700

After bouncing within a 100-pip range since early February, the world’s most-traded FX pair may be set for a big move.

The trend is bearish on the H4/daily timeframe but bulls have put up a good fight with support at 1.0700 and resistance at 1.0800.

It is a similar story on the weekly charts with the bullish pin bar signalling a potential reversal if prices push back above the 50-week SMA.

Nevertheless, the recent price action suggests that the EURUSD needs fresh motivation to trigger a potential breakout.

Here are 3 potential catalysts to keep an eye on:

EU data + ECB minutes

The euro could turn volatile from mid-week due to key EU data and the ECB meeting minutes.

Key reports in the form of the Eurozone consumer confidence and latest inflation readings among others may provide fresh insights on the future path of ECB interest rates. It will be wise to keep an eye on data from Germany, the largest economy in Europe.

Regarding the ECB minutes, investors are likely to closely scrutinise them for any clues on the timings of rate cuts.

Traders are currently pricing in a 45% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by April, with a cut fully priced in by June.

These odds are likely to be influenced by the incoming data from Europe this week.

The EURUSD may push higher if overall EU economic data and minutes signal that the ECB may need more time before cutting interests.
Should economic data disappoint, inflation cools and the minutes sound dovish – the EURUSD may fall.

Fed minutes + speeches

The Fed minutes and speeches by Federal Reserve officials may inject renewed life into the dollar.

Although much has changed since the January meeting, it could provide investors with some insight into why Fed officials held off on cutting rates in March despite signs of cooling inflation. Speeches by Fed officials will be closely scrutinized by market players for fresh clues on the timings of Fed interest rate cuts.

Should the dollar end up weakening this week, the EURUSD is likely to push higher.
If the dollar strengthens as data and Fed officials further dampen hopes of early cuts, the EURUSD has the potential to tumble.

Technical forces

The EURUSD is bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero.

A bearish daily close below 1.0800 may trigger a selloff back towards the 1.0700 support.
A strong breakout and daily close above 1.0800 may encourage a move towards the 200-day SMA at 1.0825 and resistance at 1.0869 just below the 50-day SMA.

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 78% chance that EURUSD trades within the 1.0687 – 1.0869 over the next week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Gold (-30,570 contracts) with Copper (-18,987 contracts), Platinum (-7,596 contracts), Silver (-4,455 contracts), Palladium (-2,509 contracts) and Steel (-587 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) and Copper (3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (49.3 percent)
Silver (38.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (45.2 percent)
Copper (2.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.8 percent)
Platinum (20.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.0 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.2 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals have negative 6-week trend scores currently.

Platinum (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores with Copper (-37 percent) and Gold (-34 percent) as the next market with the lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-34.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-20.7 percent)
Silver (-30.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-22.8 percent)
Copper (-37.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-18.7 percent)
Platinum (-65.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-33.9 percent)
Palladium (-32.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.3 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -30,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	26.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	62.4	5.3
– Net Position:	131,168	-152,980	21,812
– Gross Longs:	217,505	109,529	44,228
– Gross Shorts:	86,337	262,509	22,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	62.9	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.4	33.7	-19.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	31.2	21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	50.6	9.8
– Net Position:	12,425	-29,688	17,263
– Gross Longs:	56,785	47,556	32,154
– Gross Shorts:	44,360	77,244	14,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	56.3	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.7	26.3	-4.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	39.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	27.2	5.8
– Net Position:	-32,697	30,426	2,271
– Gross Longs:	78,229	100,413	17,289
– Gross Shorts:	110,926	69,987	15,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	96.8	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.2	34.8	-4.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	25.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	34.5	4.4
– Net Position:	1,938	-8,229	6,291
– Gross Longs:	50,318	23,849	10,369
– Gross Shorts:	48,380	32,078	4,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	75.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-65.0	52.6	33.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	52.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	6.0	6.6
– Net Position:	-13,511	13,042	469
– Gross Longs:	4,317	14,720	2,308
– Gross Shorts:	17,828	1,678	1,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	8.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	28.3	33.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	81.2	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	73.1	0.6
– Net Position:	-2,183	1,957	226
– Gross Longs:	3,117	19,560	379
– Gross Shorts:	5,300	17,603	153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	12.1	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	12.1	-2.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

18 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 2-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (117,595 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (67,943 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (30,099 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (29,415 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (6,328 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-19,126 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-15,056 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-6,021 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (91 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (50 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (44 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (9 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (10 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (38.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (12.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (44.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (33.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (50.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (47.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (90.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (89.0 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (9 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Fed Funds (-2 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-2.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-5.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-1.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (9.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-20.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (4.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-2.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 586,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 30,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 556,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	51.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	56.6	0.5
– Net Position:	586,542	-567,164	-19,378
– Gross Longs:	1,910,959	5,376,976	34,146
– Gross Shorts:	1,324,417	5,944,140	53,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	10.2	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-3.3	-9.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -141,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -135,960 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	69.5	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	61.6	2.3
– Net Position:	-141,981	153,433	-11,452
– Gross Longs:	259,866	1,346,488	33,686
– Gross Shorts:	401,847	1,193,055	45,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	62.3	68.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.5	-1.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,188,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 117,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,305,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	81.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	55.4	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,188,014	1,052,479	135,535
– Gross Longs:	374,316	3,254,831	263,751
– Gross Shorts:	1,562,330	2,202,352	128,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	79.6	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-5.5	8.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,316,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,297,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	84.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	64.1	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,316,293	1,215,390	100,903
– Gross Longs:	417,558	4,996,200	397,262
– Gross Shorts:	1,733,851	3,780,810	296,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.3	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	5.0	-8.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -760,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 67,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -828,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	78.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	63.9	7.6
– Net Position:	-760,519	688,569	71,950
– Gross Longs:	489,605	3,713,618	432,020
– Gross Shorts:	1,250,124	3,025,049	360,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.0	82.9	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-12.0	4.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -230,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	76.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	62.3	12.7
– Net Position:	-230,706	313,523	-82,817
– Gross Longs:	279,753	1,686,833	197,906
– Gross Shorts:	510,459	1,373,310	280,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	93.9	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	0.3	-12.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -113,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	71.8	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	67.6	10.6
– Net Position:	-113,371	59,063	54,308
– Gross Longs:	185,581	1,029,694	205,953
– Gross Shorts:	298,952	970,631	151,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	33.9	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-10.8	0.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -334,876 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -341,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	79.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	61.1	8.7
– Net Position:	-334,876	309,005	25,871
– Gross Longs:	165,750	1,330,881	170,951
– Gross Shorts:	500,626	1,021,876	145,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	47.8	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	8.0	15.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

18 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (17,184 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,480 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (92 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-4,458 contracts), the VIX (-1,979 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-616 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-812 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (93 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (89 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (75 percent) and Russell-Mini (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (75.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (32.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (30.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (93.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (94.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (88.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (70.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (42.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (41.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (37.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Russell-Mini (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-4.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-6.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-16.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-5.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (0.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-4.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (12.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	46.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	31.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-50,966	54,671	-3,705
– Gross Longs:	76,506	167,381	26,308
– Gross Shorts:	127,472	112,710	30,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	23.4	77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	2.9	8.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -215,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	74.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	67.8	8.2
– Net Position:	-215,778	152,512	63,266
– Gross Longs:	292,466	1,738,023	254,739
– Gross Shorts:	508,244	1,585,511	191,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	60.9	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	3.5	-9.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	51.1	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	73.4	12.7
– Net Position:	20,369	-23,116	2,747
– Gross Longs:	32,665	52,815	15,867
– Gross Shorts:	12,296	75,931	13,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.4	4.7	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-3.7	8.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	52.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	65.0	12.1
– Net Position:	32,076	-37,213	5,137
– Gross Longs:	97,292	155,161	40,984
– Gross Shorts:	65,216	192,374	35,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.9	11.7	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	11.1	-8.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,993 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	80.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	76.9	4.8
– Net Position:	-24,451	16,168	8,283
– Gross Longs:	60,783	405,971	32,713
– Gross Shorts:	85,234	389,803	24,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	30.9	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	16.8	-9.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 92 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	64.2	25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	54.9	14.3
– Net Position:	-3,388	1,576	1,812
– Gross Longs:	1,829	10,843	4,222
– Gross Shorts:	5,217	9,267	2,410
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	45.5	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-2.7	6.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	88.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	83.3	2.2
– Net Position:	-27,856	23,703	4,153
– Gross Longs:	33,926	382,513	13,677
– Gross Shorts:	61,782	358,810	9,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	61.4	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-5.7	-16.4

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Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Financial News – Page 156

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

Stock Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

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IPO With Unusual Machines

Midterm Revenue and Catalysts

After bouncing within a 100-pip range since early February, the world’s most-traded FX pair may be set for a big move.

EU data + ECB minutes

Fed minutes + speeches

Technical forces

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 78% chance that EURUSD trades within the 1.0687 – 1.0869 over the next week.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend