Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 152

RBA keeps rates unchanged but maintain a hawkish attitude

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.71%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.32%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.20%. Stocks came under pressure on Monday as bond yields rose amid hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and stronger-than-expected economic news.

Economic news out of the US on Monday was hawkish for Fed policy and bullish for the dollar. The January ISM services index rose by 2.9 to a 4-month high of 53.4, exceeding expectations of 52.0. In addition, the January ISM services price sub-index unexpectedly rose by 7.3 to an 11-month high of 64.0, stronger than expectations of a decline to 56.7. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said yesterday that he needs to see more data showing inflation progress before the Fed starts cutting interest rates.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the neutral rate will probably rise. That would give the FOMC time to assess upcoming economic data before it starts cutting the federal funds rate, with less risk that too tight a policy would derail the economic recovery.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.03%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.20% on Monday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.04%.

The PPI report (shows the rate of inflation between factories and plants) in the Eurozone proved to be a dovish factor for ECB policy. ECB Governing Council spokesman Vujcic said that the ECB now needs to be patient before embarking on an easing cycle to make sure that labor costs do not turn into sustained wage pressures.

The Eurozone Producer Price Index for December fell by 10.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of 10.5% y/y. The Sentix Eurozone Investor Confidence Index for February rose by 2.9 to a 10-month high of negative 12.9, stronger than expectations of negative 15.0. German trade data came in below expectations as exports for December fell by 4.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of 2.8% m/m and the biggest decline in a year. Imports for December fell by 6.7% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 1.9% m/m and was the biggest decline of the year. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 13% at the next meeting on March 7 and 68% at the April 11 meeting.

WTI crude futures rose to around $73 a barrel on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session amid concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supplies from the region. Analysts pointed to a series of US strikes against Iranian-backed militias over the weekend, although US officials emphasized that the country was not seeking a wider conflict in the region.

Asian markets traded mixed on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.24% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 1.54%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed Monday at its opening price, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day negative 0.85%. Hong Kong and Chinese stocks rose sharply on Tuesday opening as authorities introduced measures to maintain market stability and halt a sharp sell-off in equities.

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.65, rebounding slightly from 11-week lows after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged as expected but warned that further interest rate hikes were possible due to persistently high inflation. The RBA acknowledged that inflation fell more than expected in the fourth quarter but was undecided on when inflation would return to the 2-3% target. Policymakers added that the path of interest rates will depend on data and the evolving assessment of risks.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,942.81 −15.80 (−0.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,380.12 −274.30 (−0.71%)

DAX (DE40) 16,904.06 −14.15 (−0.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,612.86 −2.68 (−0.4%)

USD Index 104.32 −0.14 (−0.13%)

News feed for 2024.02.06:

– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Rate Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem’s Speech at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Feb

Crude bulls lean on 71.99 weekly support

By ForexTime

Crude oil bullish on W1 timeframe

Strong support level found at 71.99

Stochastic Oscillator bullish

4 potential targets on H4 timeframe

Bullish scenario invalidated below 71.39

Crude oil prices dropped like a rock last week as a correction wave in the current uptrend played out on the weekly charts.

Prices have found bullish backing on a strong weekly support level at 71.99 with demand potentially picking up from there.

On the daily chart, we can see the fractal nature of the market in action and the weekly correction wave shows a down trend on the daily chart. Here a new correction wave is in progress in the current down trend. Conservative traders might wait for a daily market structure to change before looking for opportunities, while more aggressive traders might consider a long opportunity off the weekly support level. This can be explored further on the 4-hour chart.

On the 4-hour chart, a magnificent downtrend can be seen, stretching from the weekly resistance level at 76.88, all the way down to the weekly support level at 71.99. The bears made a last lower bottom and currently, the bulls are keeping the price above the weekly support level, with a possible early stage of a new uptrend on the books.

The price broke the downtrend and the shorter price cycle Stochastics Oscillator confirms the bullish momentum, but the longer price cycle Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Oscillator warns that there might still be a re-test of the weekly support level.

If the price reaches the 73.34 level, a long opportunity becomes possible.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 73.34 and dragging it to the last lower bottom at 71.39, four conservative targets can be determined:

Target 1: 74.12

Target 2: 74.51

Target 3: 75.29

Target 4: 76.27

If the price breaks past the 71.39 level, this opportunity is no longer likely, and a short opportunity might become possible from a 4-hour market structure point of view.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Financial News

05 Feb

Powell promises that the US Fed will move slower than the market expects. Tensions persist in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.35% (+1.41% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.07% yesterday (+1.34% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.74% (+1.02% for the week).

Friday’s economic news from the US was better than expected and favorable for the dollar. Non-farm payrolls for January rose by 353,000, which exceeded expectations of 185,000 and was the largest increase in a year. The unemployment rate for January was unchanged at 3.7%, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 3.8%. In addition, average hourly earnings for January rose 0.6% m/m and 4.5% y/y, which was stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 4.1% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January was revised upward by 0.2 to a 2-year high of 79.0, exceeding expectations of 78.9.

In an interview on the “60 Minutes” program, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank will be cautious about cutting rates this year and will wait for more evidence that inflation is falling steadily to 2%. He added that the Fed is likely to act much more slowly than the market expects. Traders have now cut bets on a March rate cut to 20% and see total easing this year at 137 basis points, down from 150 basis points at the end of last year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained by 0.35% (-0.04% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.05% on Friday (-0.66% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.48% on Friday (+1.25% for the week), and UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed by negative 0.09% (-0.26% for the week).

Trade data from Germany showed a sharper-than-expected decline in both exports and imports in the final month of 2023. The UK unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, the lowest since February through April 2023. A strong labor market could push back the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England, which is favorable for the British currency.

WTI crude futures consolidated above $72 a barrel on Monday after falling sharply last week as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. Oil prices fell more than 7% last week as progress in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas eased fears of supply disruptions from the region. Fading expectations of an immediate interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and lingering concerns about China’s economic recovery also weighed on the outlook for global demand. Meanwhile, the US said it would take further military action against Iranian-backed groups, raising tensions in the Middle East, though insisting it did not seek a wider conflict in the region.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 1.46% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 3.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week down by 4.32%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 0.87%.

Asian equity markets mostly fell on Monday as strong US jobs data and another Powell rejection further undermined sentiment for a Fed rate cut. Hong Kong and Chinese stocks led the fall even after Chinese regulators vowed to prevent abnormal market swings. China’s overall Caixin PMI for January 2024 was 52.5, down from December’s 7-month high of 52.6, marking the 13th month of growth in private sector activity.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,958.61 +52.42 (+1.07%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,654.42 +134.58 (+0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 16,918.21 +59.17 (+0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,615.54 −6.62 (−0.09%)

USD Index 103.05 +0.82 (+0.82%)

News feed for 2024.02.05:

– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Feb

USD Strengthens Following Strong Employment Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The US dollar has seen a significant increase in strength against the Euro, with the EUR/USD pair falling to 1.0770 by Monday morning. This movement is largely attributed to the recent release of robust employment sector reports in the US for January, which have shifted investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for January revealed an impressive increase of 353 thousand jobs, far exceeding the anticipated 187 thousand. Additionally, December’s NFP figures were revised upwards to 333 thousand. Average hourly earnings also saw a notable rise of 0.6% month-over-month, doubling the forecast. These indicators suggest mounting inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s plans to normalize interest rates.

The latest employment data effectively solidified market projections, especially after Federal Reserve officials indicated that a rate cut in March was unlikely, with adjustments possibly being postponed until May.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The H4 chart analysis of EUR/USD indicates that a corrective wave reaching 1.0896 has concluded. The market is now in the midst of a downward trend aiming for 1.0722. Upon achieving this target, a potential corrective movement to 1.0808 might occur, serving as a test from below, before the trend resumes its descent towards 1.0682. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which is positioned below zero and indicates a continued downward trajectory.

On the H1 chart, the EUR/USD pair has established a consolidation range around 1.0808. Following a downward breakout, the declining wave is expected to proceed towards 1.0722. After reaching this milestone, a correction back to 1.0808 could be anticipated. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50, suggests a potential climb to 80 before a decline to 20, reinforcing the bearish scenario outlined.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Feb

Trade Of The Week: AUDUSD bears to keep upper hand?

By ForexTime

AUD down against most G10 YTD

RBA decision + US data in focus

AUDUSD bearish on D1 chart

Strong USD could spell more pain

Key level of interest at 0.6550

The past few weeks have certainly been rough and rocky for the Australian dollar!

It has weakened against almost every single G10 currency so far in 2024, shedding over 4.5% versus the dollar.

After closing almost 1% lower last Friday following the blow-out NFP report (that saw 353k US jobs added in January), the AUDUSD has entered the new week on a shaky note. It is worth noting that the commodity currency was already pressured by growth concerns and signs of falling inflation in Australia.

With the dollar set to appreciate as investors claw back bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts, this could mean more pain for Aussie.

Here are 3 reasons why the AUDUSD is on our radar:

RBA decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its February 6th policy meeting, keeping the cash rate at 4.35%.

Signs of rapidly cooling inflationary pressures in the final quarter of 2023 have reinforced bets around the central bank’s next move being a rate cut. This development coupled with the shaky economic outlook could lend RBA doves further support.

Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of a rate cut by the RBA in June with a cut fully priced in by August 2024.

The Aussie is likely to weaken if the RBA strikes a dovish tone and signals that it’s next move will be a cut this year.
Should the RBA sound more hawkish and express intentions to keep rates higher for longer, this could push the Aussie higher.

Dollar volatility

Dollar volatility could be a key theme this week as investors not only digest last Friday’s strong US jobs data but prepare for more key data and speeches by Fed officials.

The biggest event risk may be the US CPI revisions published on Friday. As highlighted in our week ahead report, this could heavily influence expectations around Fed rate cuts if there are any major revisions.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 77% probability of a Fed rate cut by May with a cut fully priced in by June 2024.

These odds could look different by the end of the week depending on incoming data and Fed speeches.

Should overall data and Fed speeches boost the dollar, this may drag the AUDUSD lower.
If the dollar ends up weakening, the AUDUSD could experience a technical bounce.

Technical forces

Aussie bears are back in power after securing a daily close below the 0.6550 support. Prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. The trend is bearish but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling that prices are approaching oversold levels.

Sustained weakness below the 100-day SMA may encourage a decline towards 0.6430 and 0.6410, respectively.
Should prices push back above 0.6550, this could open a path towards the 200-day SMA at 0.6570.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (21,325 contracts) with Silver (3,689 contracts), Platinum (3,208 contracts) and Palladium (917 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-21,683 contracts) with Steel (-255 contracts) also recording slightly lower bets for the week.

Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (43.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (52.8 percent)
Silver (52.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.5 percent)
Copper (24.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.2 percent)
Platinum (42.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.8 percent)
Palladium (6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.9 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets were in negative 6-week trends. Steel (-9 percent) had the least negative trend score over the past six weeks for metals while Gold (-24 percent) came in as the market with the largest negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-24.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.4 percent)
Silver (-12.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-16.3 percent)
Copper (-12.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.3 percent)
Platinum (-12.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-15.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.7 percent)
Steel (-8.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 147,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	27.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	66.9	5.3
– Net Position:	147,791	-170,518	22,727
– Gross Longs:	219,222	117,525	45,364
– Gross Shorts:	71,431	288,043	22,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	55.7	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	23.1	-9.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	30.3	22.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	58.0	10.1
– Net Position:	21,426	-37,778	16,352
– Gross Longs:	52,778	41,387	30,191
– Gross Shorts:	31,352	79,165	13,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	46.1	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.9	-15.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	39.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	36.4	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,598	7,271	1,327
– Gross Longs:	71,100	90,929	17,116
– Gross Shorts:	79,698	83,658	15,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	77.7	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.4	-4.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	23.9	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	46.8	4.6
– Net Position:	11,549	-17,074	5,525
– Gross Longs:	43,818	17,727	8,942
– Gross Shorts:	32,269	34,801	3,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	58.2	42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	9.2	13.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	9.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-10,700	10,302	398
– Gross Longs:	4,927	12,574	2,065
– Gross Shorts:	15,627	2,272	1,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	92.4	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	9.2	55.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,932 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	83.1	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	75.1	1.0
– Net Position:	-2,187	1,982	205
– Gross Longs:	2,612	20,479	440
– Gross Shorts:	4,799	18,497	235
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	12.2	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	9.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

03 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (14,068 contracts) with Live Cattle (10,882 contracts), Wheat (6,327 contracts), Sugar (6,129 contracts), Cotton (4,112 contracts) and Coffee (3,221 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-34,583 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,316 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,677 contracts), Cocoa (-4,062 contracts) and with Corn (-5,632 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cocoa

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Sugar (17 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.7 percent)
Sugar (17.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (15.0 percent)
Coffee (85.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (81.7 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (7.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.3 percent)
Live Cattle (19.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.1 percent)
Cotton (40.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (37.4 percent)
Cocoa (83.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (87.2 percent)
Wheat (42.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.8 percent)

Cotton & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (27 percent) and Coffee (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (10 percent), Live Cattle (3 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-36 percent), Soybean Oil (-13 percent) and Corn (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (-15.4 percent)
Sugar (-6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Coffee (11.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.7 percent)
Soybeans (-36.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-31.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-50.0 percent)
Live Cattle (3.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-13.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.8 percent)
Cotton (26.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.1 percent)
Cocoa (2.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.6 percent)
Wheat (0.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -224,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -219,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	46.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	31.4	10.7
– Net Position:	-224,832	241,727	-16,895
– Gross Longs:	266,671	745,348	154,099
– Gross Shorts:	491,503	503,621	170,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.6	5.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	56.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	67.5	6.1
– Net Position:	73,684	-96,000	22,316
– Gross Longs:	178,443	478,435	74,201
– Gross Shorts:	104,759	574,435	51,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	80.0	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	5.8	0.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 56,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	35.1	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	61.0	3.4
– Net Position:	56,119	-58,218	2,099
– Gross Longs:	81,054	79,239	9,784
– Gross Shorts:	24,935	137,457	7,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	18.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-10.7	-1.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -140,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -34,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	60.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	39.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-140,577	155,822	-15,245
– Gross Longs:	77,880	453,583	49,226
– Gross Shorts:	218,457	297,761	64,471
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	68.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.4	35.8	-5.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	50.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	44.1	5.0
– Net Position:	-38,035	34,664	3,371
– Gross Longs:	99,948	289,600	32,569
– Gross Shorts:	137,983	254,936	29,198
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.8	-14.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	51.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	47.5	6.8
– Net Position:	-33,932	17,882	16,050
– Gross Longs:	72,409	247,263	48,670
– Gross Shorts:	106,341	229,381	32,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.2	46.3	-16.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	38.8	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	51.0	12.4
– Net Position:	37,214	-33,950	-3,264
– Gross Longs:	84,392	107,858	31,065
– Gross Shorts:	47,178	141,808	34,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	81.2	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-3.8	0.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	38.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	32.0	10.8
– Net Position:	-9,794	14,796	-5,002
– Gross Longs:	73,083	84,878	18,722
– Gross Shorts:	82,877	70,082	23,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	82.7	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-11.0	3.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 42,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	45.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	64.1	4.7
– Net Position:	42,278	-46,586	4,308
– Gross Longs:	72,535	114,657	16,124
– Gross Shorts:	30,257	161,243	11,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	58.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-26.9	24.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 71,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	26.0	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	49.2	4.1
– Net Position:	71,694	-76,000	4,306
– Gross Longs:	126,534	84,962	17,615
– Gross Shorts:	54,840	160,962	13,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	15.7	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.1	23.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	25.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-36,455	43,840	-7,385
– Gross Longs:	118,028	149,787	30,571
– Gross Shorts:	154,483	105,947	37,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	59.3	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	0.4	-4.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (38,211 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (641 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-80,701 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-74,337 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-64,042 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-40,595 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-38,116 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-8,491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (17.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (25.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (35.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (96.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (7 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-24 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-16 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-24.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (25.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (0.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-15.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (6.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (2.6 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 705,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -64,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 769,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	50.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	57.5	0.3
– Net Position:	705,145	-701,186	-3,959
– Gross Longs:	2,012,056	5,282,698	28,810
– Gross Shorts:	1,306,911	5,983,884	32,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	3.3	85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.7	1.0

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -156,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -80,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	70.1	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	61.7	2.0
– Net Position:	-156,080	169,562	-13,482
– Gross Longs:	213,115	1,419,260	27,738
– Gross Shorts:	369,195	1,249,698	41,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.2	65.8	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	23.9	0.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,307,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -38,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,268,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	83.1	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	53.4	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,307,001	1,167,338	139,663
– Gross Longs:	361,700	3,262,504	260,468
– Gross Shorts:	1,668,701	2,095,166	120,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	87.9	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.7	2.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,192,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 38,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,231,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	66.0	4.6
– Net Position:	-1,192,978	1,042,055	150,923
– Gross Longs:	474,604	4,958,885	426,265
– Gross Shorts:	1,667,582	3,916,830	275,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	78.6	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-14.6	0.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -859,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -74,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -784,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	62.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-859,015	810,792	48,223
– Gross Longs:	476,861	3,765,976	411,708
– Gross Shorts:	1,335,876	2,955,184	363,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	98.5	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	21.9	-0.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -179,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -40,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	75.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	62.3	13.7
– Net Position:	-179,110	280,254	-101,144
– Gross Longs:	298,951	1,591,383	186,641
– Gross Shorts:	478,061	1,311,129	287,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	87.3	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-12.1	-15.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -137,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	72.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	66.9	10.2
– Net Position:	-137,502	76,626	60,876
– Gross Longs:	174,607	1,031,332	206,676
– Gross Shorts:	312,109	954,706	145,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	40.6	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-8.6	16.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -330,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -331,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	80.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	60.8	9.2
– Net Position:	-330,468	317,381	13,087
– Gross Longs:	159,581	1,318,459	165,201
– Gross Shorts:	490,049	1,001,078	152,114
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	52.0	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	23.5	-7.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

03 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was Nasdaq-Mini (6,209 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (6,162 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-36,489 contracts), the VIX (-5,347 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,315 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-175 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Markets Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (100 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week and are at the top of their 3-year ranges. The Russell-Mini (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (72.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (31.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (36.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (100.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (90.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (77.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (39.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (40.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (26 percent), the Russell-Mini (14 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-16.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-18.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (28.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (24.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (26.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (38.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-9.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	45.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	29.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-54,540	57,042	-2,502
– Gross Longs:	70,187	159,581	28,032
– Gross Shorts:	124,727	102,539	30,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	25.0	83.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	14.4	11.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -225,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -36,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	74.3	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	68.1	7.8
– Net Position:	-225,962	142,194	83,768
– Gross Longs:	284,559	1,715,110	264,947
– Gross Shorts:	510,521	1,572,916	181,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	59.5	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	2.6	4.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	48.2	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.7	12.0
– Net Position:	24,410	-26,351	1,941
– Gross Longs:	39,325	52,040	14,936
– Gross Shorts:	14,915	78,391	12,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.1	-28.6	11.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	53.0	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	69.3	11.3
– Net Position:	39,251	-47,893	8,642
– Gross Longs:	94,317	156,086	41,844
– Gross Shorts:	55,066	203,979	33,202
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-24.3	13.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	75.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	76.2	4.3
– Net Position:	-10,504	-1,488	11,992
– Gross Longs:	83,470	387,387	34,014
– Gross Shorts:	93,974	388,875	22,022
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	19.5	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-16.3	19.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	63.9	24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	52.9	12.6
– Net Position:	-3,868	1,857	2,011
– Gross Longs:	1,931	10,736	4,133
– Gross Shorts:	5,799	8,879	2,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	47.2	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	0.4	23.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.2	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	83.5	2.0
– Net Position:	-29,562	24,171	5,391
– Gross Longs:	31,441	376,774	13,648
– Gross Shorts:	61,003	352,603	8,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.8	61.8	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-11.2	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

01 Feb

Target Thursdays: UK100 & AUDUSD hit profit target

By ForexTime

UK100 soars through profit levels

AUDUSD bears bag 30 pips

Bonus: Keep on USDInd trading range

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

UK100 hits all take-profit levels

The UK100 which tracks the benchmark FTSE100 index soared through the bullish intra-day price targets this morning.

Profit target hit: YES, 4 out of 4 profit targets have been hit.

Why: The UK100 has an inverse relationship with the British pound. A weaker pound is bullish for the index.

Technical forces: Prices are bullish on the 30-minute timeframe.

The above scenario (UK100) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

AUDUSD selloff rewards 30 pips

AUDUSD tumbled like a house of cards, sliding past and beyond all the pre-defined take profit levels.

Profit target hit: YES, 4 out of 4 profit targets have been hit this morning.

Why: A broadly stronger dollar following Wednesday’s Fed meeting dragged prices lower.

Technical forces: Prices are bearish on the 30-minute timeframe.

The above scenario (AUDUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

GBPUSD bears halted by BoE

In our trade of the week, we discussed whether the GBPUSD was on the brink of a major breakout. On Thursday morning prices started to move with the BoE policy decision sparking volatility.

Profit target hit: NO, but bears came close to hitting 1.2600 level.

Why: Despite tumbling on Wednesday evening, prices rebounded following the BoE decision on Thursday. UK rates were left unchanged, but BoE Governor stated more evidence was needed before lowering rates.

Technical forces: Prices back within range but weakness below the 50-day SMA may support bears.

Bonus: Will USDInd bullish setup be triggered?

Last Friday, the USDInd hijacked our attention due to the heavy-hitting events this week. After swinging within a range, a breakout could be around the corner.

Profit target hit: NO, but prices are testing the 103.70 resistance.

Why: Dollar boosted by Fed’s hawkish remarks and falling odds of rate cut in March. NFP on Friday in focus.

Technical forces: Daily close above 103.70 may open a path towards the 100-day SMA at 104.40.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Financial News – Page 152

Crude oil prices dropped like a rock last week as a correction wave in the current uptrend played out on the weekly charts.

Target 1: 74.12

Target 2: 74.51

Target 3: 75.29

Target 4: 76.27

If the price breaks past the 71.39 level, this opportunity is no longer likely, and a short opportunity might become possible from a 4-hour market structure point of view.

The past few weeks have certainly been rough and rocky for the Australian dollar!

RBA decision

Dollar volatility

Technical forces

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Silver

Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cocoa

Cotton & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

Stock Markets Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts: