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COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as only one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra 10-Year Bonds with an increase by 33,731 contracts for the week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-195,920 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-77,320 contracts), Fed Funds (-77,263 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-66,580 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-59,326 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-55,603 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12,463 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (78 percent) and the Fed Funds (64 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (28 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (63.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (81.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (28.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (40.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (46.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (16.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (78.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (98.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (57.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (31.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (35.1 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (9 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for bonds.

The 5-Year Bonds (-29 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-17 percent) and the Fed Funds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-16.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-3.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-28.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-17.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-18.6 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -564,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -77,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -487,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	60.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	55.6	0.4
– Net Position:	-564,728	567,744	-3,016
– Gross Longs:	1,375,680	6,478,978	34,529
– Gross Shorts:	1,940,408	5,911,234	37,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	69.0	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.2	17.1	0.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -77,263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	63.5	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	62.6	2.5
– Net Position:	-12,980	12,406	574
– Gross Longs:	196,856	880,751	34,967
– Gross Shorts:	209,836	868,345	34,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	33.2	92.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	15.2	4.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,035,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -55,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -979,819 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	78.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	54.7	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,035,422	895,943	139,479
– Gross Longs:	516,364	2,997,360	268,526
– Gross Shorts:	1,551,786	2,101,417	129,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	68.2	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	2.9	5.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,573,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -195,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,377,117 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	85.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	61.9	4.7
– Net Position:	-1,573,037	1,439,949	133,088
– Gross Longs:	389,117	5,308,600	427,677
– Gross Shorts:	1,962,154	3,868,651	294,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	33.4	2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -454,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -66,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -388,175 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	67.3	9.0
– Net Position:	-454,755	443,655	11,100
– Gross Longs:	447,213	3,415,649	406,545
– Gross Shorts:	901,968	2,971,994	395,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	51.8	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	11.0	3.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -197,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 33,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	77.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	63.8	13.2
– Net Position:	-197,034	268,521	-71,487
– Gross Longs:	233,540	1,560,564	196,579
– Gross Shorts:	430,574	1,292,043	268,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	80.2	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-12.1	4.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -59,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	68.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	70.7	9.6
– Net Position:	-15,490	-36,259	51,749
– Gross Longs:	288,078	1,126,050	209,030
– Gross Shorts:	303,568	1,162,309	157,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	14.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-7.6	15.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -330,531 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -318,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	78.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	59.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-330,531	325,013	5,518
– Gross Longs:	147,782	1,351,715	179,644
– Gross Shorts:	478,313	1,026,702	174,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	55.8	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	11.4	12.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

08 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Coffee & Cocoa

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Coffee & Cocoa

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower overall this week as just two out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Coffee (4,616 contracts) with Cocoa (1,075 contracts) as the only other market showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-68,301 contracts), Soybeans (-26,081 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,113 contracts), Cotton (-14,369 contracts), Sugar (-9,145 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,321 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,116 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,722 contracts) and with Wheat (-3,728 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (92 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (67 percent) and Wheat (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Soybean Oil (12 percent) and Corn (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (27.3 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (91.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (34.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (12.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (67.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (74.4 percent)
Live Cattle (37.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (44.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (40.9 percent)
Cotton (3.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.5 percent)
Cocoa (44.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.2 percent)
Wheat (54.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.5 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (34 percent) and Soybeans (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (18 percent), Live Cattle (7 percent) and Corn (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-27 percent), Sugar (-16 percent) and Coffee (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (19.5 percent)
Sugar (-16.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.8 percent)
Coffee (-4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.7 percent)
Soybeans (24.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-3.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (52.2 percent)
Live Cattle (7.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (19.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-42.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-35.2 percent)
Cotton (-26.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-33.6 percent)
Cocoa (4.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.3 percent)
Wheat (17.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -119,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -68,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	42.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	33.5	10.9
– Net Position:	-119,933	155,249	-35,316
– Gross Longs:	339,144	702,466	143,787
– Gross Shorts:	459,077	547,217	179,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	83.1	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-2.3	-30.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,105 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	53.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	51.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-4,040	12,341	-8,301
– Gross Longs:	193,811	469,221	69,222
– Gross Shorts:	197,851	456,880	77,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	13.9	-3.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 67,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	35.4	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	63.4	2.6
– Net Position:	67,649	-70,285	2,636
– Gross Longs:	84,948	88,759	9,069
– Gross Shorts:	17,299	159,044	6,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	8.3	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	4.8	-9.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,989 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	57.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	48.8	8.4
– Net Position:	-51,989	71,292	-19,303
– Gross Longs:	128,076	479,270	51,219
– Gross Shorts:	180,065	407,978	70,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.3	66.3	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-21.8	-37.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	54.2	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	48.5	4.9
– Net Position:	-36,585	32,683	3,902
– Gross Longs:	114,518	309,548	31,673
– Gross Shorts:	151,103	276,865	27,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	87.6	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	0.9	13.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 97,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	39.2	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	63.8	5.7
– Net Position:	97,408	-117,328	19,920
– Gross Longs:	151,919	186,344	47,039
– Gross Shorts:	54,511	303,672	27,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	31.2	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.0	-34.0	12.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	33.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	49.5	12.7
– Net Position:	54,133	-45,886	-8,247
– Gross Longs:	115,314	97,046	28,476
– Gross Shorts:	61,181	142,932	36,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	66.6	45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-7.4	-2.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	39.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	40.1	8.9
– Net Position:	5,546	-2,865	-2,681
– Gross Longs:	80,913	109,683	22,185
– Gross Shorts:	75,367	112,548	24,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	66.2	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.0	40.2	29.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	46.4	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	43.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-6,691	7,750	-1,059
– Gross Longs:	67,396	107,335	12,729
– Gross Shorts:	74,087	99,585	13,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	95.6	9.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.8	26.3	-19.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	34.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	60.6	3.4
– Net Position:	33,645	-40,799	7,154
– Gross Longs:	48,643	53,704	12,460
– Gross Shorts:	14,998	94,503	5,306
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	51.1	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-5.4	11.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	37.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	31.8	9.2
– Net Position:	-18,121	25,545	-7,424
– Gross Longs:	121,898	163,904	32,453
– Gross Shorts:	140,019	138,359	39,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	45.7	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-14.6	-24.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by MSCI EAFE & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,955 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (5,723 contracts), the VIX (1,469 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (73 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-62,792 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-4,858 contracts) and with the Russell-Mini (-510 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (70 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (42 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (70.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (68.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (81.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (42.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (33.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (60.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (66.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (66.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (55.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (41.2 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (2 percent) and the Russell-Mini (1 percent) lead the past six weeks and are the only positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-20 percent) coming in as the next market with the lowest trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-25.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (-21.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-11.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (2.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-6.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-19.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (3.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-1.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-7.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-19.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	39.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	29.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-41,275	41,985	-710
– Gross Longs:	95,865	166,555	30,228
– Gross Shorts:	137,140	124,570	30,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	25.6	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	20.4	23.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -62,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	71.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	73.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-65,000	-47,092	112,092
– Gross Longs:	265,433	1,534,557	287,673
– Gross Shorts:	330,433	1,581,649	175,581
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	33.4	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	19.7	-4.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	58.3	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	68.5	12.3
– Net Position:	8,286	-10,195	1,909
– Gross Longs:	21,008	58,709	14,251
– Gross Shorts:	12,722	68,904	12,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	23.4	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-3.6	5.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	56.4	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	61.7	13.1
– Net Position:	1,997	-13,027	11,030
– Gross Longs:	60,252	139,142	43,392
– Gross Shorts:	58,255	152,169	32,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	38.2	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	6.0	-3.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	72.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	67.5	4.5
– Net Position:	-34,355	25,469	8,886
– Gross Longs:	86,068	342,253	29,881
– Gross Shorts:	120,423	316,784	20,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	36.8	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-3.0	9.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	63.8	23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	64.6	13.1
– Net Position:	-1,563	-128	1,691
– Gross Longs:	1,569	9,996	3,740
– Gross Shorts:	3,132	10,124	2,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.8	25.6	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-1.0	5.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	89.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	88.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-10,414	3,828	6,586
– Gross Longs:	29,922	369,758	11,866
– Gross Shorts:	40,336	365,930	5,280
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	41.0	49.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	5.7	6.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

07 Jun

Market awaits NFP data: Euro/Dollar consolidates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

At the end of the week, the US dollar is hovering around an eight-week low against the euro, but trading activity remains subdued. Everyone is conserving energy ahead of this evening’s May employment data from the US. These reports are expected to provide more insight into the timing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points, from 4.50% to 4.25% per annum. The euro retained its daily gains. The ECB gave few indications about its future steps, and the market remains uncertain whether there will be further rate cuts. Persistent inflationary pressures dim the prospects for the ECB.

In its comments, the ECB mentioned that the consumer price index will remain above the target of 2% until the end of next year.

The market is preparing for relatively soft non-farm payroll (NFP) data from the US. The final figure may fall below the forecast of 185,000.

Investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s decisions are constantly shifting. The market now predicts the first rate cut in September, followed by another in November.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed an initial wave of decline to 1.0854 and a correction up to 1.0901. We expect the start of a new wave of decline to the level of 1.0833. A break below this level will open the potential for a wave down to 1.0760, with a trend continuation prospect to 1.0750. This first target of the decline wave is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is at its peak and ready to continue descending.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.0882. An expansion of the range to 1.0908 is possible. After reaching this level, we will consider the likelihood of a new wave of decline to 1.0882. A break below this level will open the potential for a wave down to 1.0835, with a trend continuation prospect to 1.0765. This local target is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the level of 80. We expect a decline to the level of 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Jun

The Bank of Canada has started a cycle of rate cuts. Today the same step is expected from the ECB

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose 0.25%, while the S&P 500 (US500) rose 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday at a positive 1.96%. Stock indices rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 setting new all-time highs and the Dow Jones Industrials rising to a 1-week high. The strength in chip maker stocks on Wednesday led tech stocks higher and was a positive for the broader market. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) surged 5% to a record high, surpassing a market value of $3 trillion, after briefly outperforming Apple (AAPL) during the intraday session. Additionally, technology stocks were supported by some positive corporate news on Wednesday, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPQ) reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.

Friday will see the release of the monthly US payrolls report for May, looking for clues about the labor market’s strength that will prompt when the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates. The consensus expects non-farm payrolls for May to increase by 190,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.9%.

The Canadian dollar weakened past 1.37 per dollar, hitting one-month lows, as investors assessed the Bank of Canada’s latest rate decision. The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% at its June meeting, marking a departure from 11 consecutive months of the highest interest rates in the tightening cycle as expected. The decision was reinforced by recent data pointing to continued disinflation towards the target level, prompting the central bank to adopt a less stringent policy stance. The decision was also influenced by lower-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter and a softer labor market.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.93%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.87%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.59%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.18% on Wednesday. European stocks extended early gains, recovering from losses in the previous session, as markets anticipated improved credit conditions in the eurozone ahead of the ECB’s decision.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. With almost a 100 percent probability, the ECB will cut the rate by 0.25%. With a 25 basis point rate cut already virtually promised by policymakers, market watchers will focus on what ECB President Christine Lagarde says. Ms. Lagarde will likely say that future rate cuts will be “data dependent.” But in a news release, the euro could rise because the latest wage data could boost inflation going forward, and Lagarde will mention that.

WTI crude oil prices rose 1.1% on Wednesday, breaking a five-day losing streak. That rise was fueled by optimism about a possible Fed rate cut in September, which outweighed a rise in US oil and fuel inventories. There is a 69% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in September, which could stimulate economic activity and boost oil demand. EIA data showed that US crude inventories rose by 1.233 million barrels last week, a reversal after a 4.156 million barrel decline the previous week and contrary to market expectations for a 2.3 million barrel decline.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.10% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.41%.

Board member Toyoaki Nakamura said in a speech that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current monetary policy settings as the impact of wage growth on inflation remains weak. Nakamura was one of two dissenters when the board voted to remove the negative interest rate in March and implemented the first rate hike in 17 years.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,354.03 +62.69 (+1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,807.33 +96.04 (+0.25%)

DAX (DE40) 18,575.94 +170.30 (+0.93%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,246.95 +14.91 (+0.18%)

USD Index 104.32 +0.21 (+0.20%)

Important events today:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Rate Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Jun

Gold prices reach 2368 USD amid speculation of Fed rate cuts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices climbed to 2368 USD per troy ounce on Thursday, continuing the upward momentum for the second session. This surge comes as market expectations adjust to the likelihood of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, fuelled by recent employment data.

Data from ADP indicated that the number of private-sector jobs in the US for May increased less than expected, with April’s figures also revised downwards. This suggests a cooling but robust employment market, reinforcing speculation about impending rate cuts. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market participants anticipate two rate cuts in 2024, with a 70% probability of easing by September.

Attention is now turning to Friday’s comprehensive labour market reports from the US, which will provide further insights into the economic health and possible direction of monetary policy. Additionally, recent global movements by central banks, such as the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut in four years and the expected rate cut by the European Central Bank today, are influencing gold prices.

XAU/USD technical analysis

The H4 chart shows that gold has broken out of a consolidation range established above the 2315.00 USD level, moving upwards. The market is now poised to reach 2395.00 USD potentially. Once this target is met, a retraction to 2356.20 USD for a test from above could occur before another possible rise to 2399.00 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with its signal line below zero but ascending sharply towards new highs.

On the H1 chart, gold developed a growth wave towards 2356.20 USD, followed by a consolidation range forming below this level. The market has since broken upwards, continuing the growth trajectory towards 2378.23 USD. After reaching this level, a corrective movement back to 2356.20 USD may occur, potentially setting the stage for a push towards the 2395.00 USD mark. The Stochastic oscillator indicates that, while the signal line has dipped below 80, it is expected to rise again towards 80, suggesting continued upward momentum.

Market outlook

Gold prices are experiencing a bullish phase, underpinned by shifting expectations regarding US monetary policy and actions by other central banks. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming US employment data and global central bank decisions. These events could significantly influence gold’s price dynamics in the short term. The technical indicators suggest a continuation of the current uptrend, with key levels to watch for potential reversals or further gains.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

05 Jun

Australia’s economy is slowing down. The BoC meeting is in the spotlight today

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.36%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.15%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.17% yesterday. The April JOLTS job openings number fell more than expected to a 3-year low, pushing 10-year T-note yields to a 2-week low and reinforcing expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The April JOLTS US Job Openings Index fell by 296,000 to a 3-year low of 8.059 million, indicating a weak labor market compared to expectations of 8.350 million.

Weakness in energy stocks weighed on the overall market on Tuesday after WTI crude fell more than 1% to a 3-month low on concerns that OPEC+’s plan to bring oil production back to the market sooner than expected will lead to a glut in global oil supplies.

Friday will see the release of the monthly US payrolls report for May, looking for signs of labor market strength that could decide when the Fed can start cutting interest rates. The consensus is that non-farm payrolls for May will increase by 190,000, and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.9%.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. In April, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate at 5% as expected and refrained from hinting at the start of rate cuts due to rising inflation risks. However, the latest GDP report showed that the Canadian economy has not recovered as much from the soft period last year as previously thought and may convince the central bank to start lowering borrowing costs. Thus, the Bank of Canada could deliver a surprise 0.25% rate cut.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.09%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.75%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.97%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.37% on Tuesday. European equity markets opened higher on Wednesday as investors await the European Central Bank’s decision this week. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday for the first time since 2019, but markets will be watching to see if last week’s Eurozone inflation data will influence the ECB’s decision.

Germany’s unemployment rate change for May rose by 25,000, the largest increase in 7 months, and showed a weaker labor market than expected at 7,000. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at Thursday’s ECB meeting to 99%. If the ECB cuts rates by 25 bps on Thursday, markets expect a 0% chance of another rate cut at the next meeting on July 18 and a 62% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the September 12 meeting.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.22%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.22% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.31%. Hong Kong (HK50) stocks were up 0.4% in early trading on Wednesday, rising for a third session amid growing hopes of fresh supportive measures from China as the country’s regulator unveils capital market policy measures at a high-level forum in Shanghai on Saturday. Investors also welcomed private survey data that showed activity in the mainland’s service sector rose by the most in 10 months in May, rising for the 17th month and matching official data.

In Japan, real wages fell for the 25th consecutive month in April, with domestic inflation continuing to outpace wage growth. It also became known that the Bank of Japan is likely to discuss reducing bond purchases at its meeting next week. These are positive factors for the Japanese yen.

In the first quarter, the Australian economy grew by 0.1%, slowing down from the growth of 0.3% in the previous quarter and failing to meet market forecasts of 0.2%. Investors breathed a sigh of relief as the economy avoided an outright recession. Nevertheless, markets see little chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) easing policy this year, with the probability of that happening in December at 44%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,291.34 +7.94 (+0.15%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,711.29 +140.26 (+0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 18,405.64 −202.52 (−1.09%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,232.04 −30.71 (−0.37%)

USD Index 104.16 +0.02 (+0.02%)

Important events today:

– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Caixin China Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Jun

New Zealand Dollar shows stability amid US economic concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair is stable, consolidating around 0.6189 on Wednesday. The New Zealand dollar maintains a sideways trend and appears relatively robust in the current market environment.

Recent pressure on the US dollar, triggered by disappointing employment statistics, has led to speculation that the US Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates after the September meeting. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a decline in job openings to 8.059 million in April, the lowest since February 2021, indicating a cooling employment market. These developments are of significant concern for the Fed, suggesting a need to adjust monetary policy to support employment.

Market attention is now turning to the upcoming May private sector jobs data from ADP, which is expected to provide further insights into labour market conditions. The week will culminate with a comprehensive set of employment market statistics on Friday.

Regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), there are no expectations of an interest rate cut until at least mid-2025. The RBNZ is expected to maintain a stable policy to allow for a thorough data assessment.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart, the NZD/USD pair is evolving within a broad consolidation range around the 0.6136 level. A recent growth impulse has reached 0.6197. Today, a potential decline to 0.6137 is expected, which could test from below. Following this correction, a new wave of decline may initiate, targeting the 0.6136 level, potentially extending to 0.6070 if this level is breached. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointed downwards. The notable divergence between the chart peaks and the indicator further reinforces this analysis.

On the H1 chart, the pair showed a downward impulse to 0.6155, followed by a correction to 0.6191. Today, the market may execute an impulse to 0.6160, with the potential for a further decline to 0.6140 and an extension towards 0.6080, the first target of the downward wave. This scenario is technically validated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80 but trending sharply downward.

Market outlook

As the NZD/USD pair continues to show resilience amidst fluctuating US economic indicators, it is crucial for investors to closely monitor incoming data, particularly from the US employment market, which could significantly influence the Fed’s next steps. The stability of the New Zealand dollar, supported by the RBNZ’s steady policy stance, contrasts the potential volatility in the US dollar as fiscal and monetary policy expectations evolve.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Jun

FXTM’s Sugar: Hits 3-week high

By ForexTime

Sugar ↑ almost 3% month-to-date

Roughly 25% away from 2024 high

H1 prices bullish but RSI overbought

Technical levels – 19.08, 18.90 and 18.50

Check this out, FXTM’s new Sugar commodity has just touched a fresh three-week high!

After wobbling near multi-week lows, prices clipped above 18.90 cents per pound on Tuesday.

Note: Sugar is priced per pound.

Before we break down the fundamentals, here are some fun facts about sugar:

Been around for over 10,000 years

Introduced in the West as a “spice”

Brazil is the biggest producer

We are all wired to crave sugar!

Gained almost 3% month-to-date

What is Sugar?

It is a sweet substance obtained from plants such as sugarcane or sugar beets.

Sugar is a very versatile ingredient, used for drinks, cereals, sweets, cakes, jams, and so on.

What does FXTM’s Sugar track?

FXTM’s Sugar tracks the Sugar No. 11 futures, the world benchmark for raw sugar trading.

The lowdown?

Sugar prices are down almost 10% year-to-date.

The soft commodity initially gained 17% in January amid concerns that El Nino weather patterns could disrupt global sugar production. Fears over severe weather conditions in the world’s two largest producers (Brazil & India) sent prices above 24.00 cents per pound.

Since then, sugar has been under pressure – posting four consecutive months of losses thanks to improving supply prospects.

The bigger picture…

An improving supply outlook from Brazil and a potentially longer monsoon season in India could boost global sugar production.

This may lead to lower sugar prices, especially when factoring in how these two countries account for over 40% of world production.

Conversely, India has extended its sugar export restrictions beyond October 2024. But this could change if the current elections result in a change of leadership and trade policies.

What does this mean?

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global consumption of sugar is forecast to rise to a new record high of 179.0 million tons in 2024.

However, global production is also forecast to hit 186.0 million tons this year. This potential surplus of 7.0 million tons could limit upside gains for sugar.

Technical Outlook

Sugar is trending higher on the H1 timeframe with prices above the 50, 100, and 200 SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed above 70 – indicating that prices are overbought.

Sustained weakness below 18.90 could open a path towards 18.50 and 18.10.

A strong break above 18.90 may see bulls challenge 19.08 and 19.30.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Soft Commodities

04 Jun

Japanese yen strengthens unexpectedly against US dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair unexpectedly declined last night due to a weakening US dollar. Currently, it is hovering around 156.33.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki highlighted the government’s recent interventions to support the yen, significantly impacting the market. Official data reveals that throughout April, Japan spent approximately 9.79 trillion yen (62.2 billion USD) on efforts to stabilise the national currency.

Suzuki pointed out that the interventions aimed to mitigate excessive fluctuations in the currency market. He affirmed that Japan would continue to monitor the forex market and act against disorderly movements vigilantly, expressing satisfaction with the effects of these measures. This marks the first time the Japanese authorities have acknowledged their market interventions conducted in late April and early May.

The yen’s strengthening is also bolstered by the recent depreciation of the US dollar, driven by market anticipations of a potential earlier rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As expectations grow for softened US monetary policy, the dollar has declined, boosting other currencies, including the yen.

USD/JPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a correction wave, reaching 157.70. A new wave of decline aiming for 153.77 is forming. Once this target is reached, a potential correction to 155.44 (testing from below) may follow, preceding a further decline towards 149.70. The bearish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, the correction phase to 157.47 has concluded, and a downward impulse towards 155.44 is underway. Following this, a correction to 156.45 (testing from below) could occur, potentially leading to a further drop to 155.22, the primary target. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is positioned above 80 and is anticipated to drop to 20.

Summary

The yen’s unexpected strengthening reflects a complex interplay of domestic interventions and broader market reactions to shifts in US monetary policy. Given the ongoing adjustments in global economic expectations and central bank policies, investors and traders should closely monitor these developments, as further fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair are likely.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.