Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 133

Oil prices decreased for the 5th consecutive session. AI companies support the NASDAQ index

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.30%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.11%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.56% yesterday. The general market’s gains were limited as economic concerns pressured stocks after activity in the US manufacturing sector unexpectedly declined last month. In addition, energy stocks came under pressure after WTI crude oil prices fell more than 3% to a 3-month low. However, the strengthening of technology stocks helped the sector’s growth. Nvidia (NVDA), for example, closed up more than 4% and led chip stocks higher after the company announced at the Computex conference in Taiwan a new generation of artificial intelligence chips by 2025 and a next-generation platform under development called Rubin by 2026.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s comments were hawkish. They supported the dollar when he said the Fed will likely hold interest rates for an “extended period” until new economic data convinces policymakers that inflation is declining. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 1% at the June 11-12 FOMC meeting, 15% at the next meeting on July 30-31, and 51% at the next September 17-18 meeting.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.66%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.15% on Monday.

European equity markets opened lower on Tuesday, following a global decline among global peers as disappointing US industrial production data weighed on market sentiment. Investors are also cautiously awaiting the European Central Bank’s decision this week, which is expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2019. Meanwhile, markets will see if last week’s Eurozone inflation data will influence the ECB’s decision.

On Monday, silver (XAGUSD) gained support on strengthening manufacturing activity in China after the May Caixin PMI rose by 0.3 to 51.7, the highest reading in 23 months and a positive for industrial metals demand.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $74 a barrel on Tuesday, dropping for the fifth consecutive session to the lowest level in four months amid concerns that global supply could increase later this year. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most supply cuts through 2025 but opened the door for voluntary cuts by eight member countries to be phased out starting in October. More than 500,000 barrels a day are expected to return to the market by December, and 1.8 million barrels a day by June 2025.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.13% over yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.55%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.79%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.77%.

On Tuesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (AU200) fell 0.05% to below 7,760, interrupting two days of gains. This was helped by losses in mining and energy stocks amid lower commodity prices. Investors are also awaiting Australian GDP data this week to gauge the current state of the economy and potential implications for domestic monetary policy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,283.40 +5.89 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,571.03 −115.29 (−0.30%)

DAX (DE40) 18,608.16 +110.22 (+0.60%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,262.75 −12.63 (−0.15%)

USD Index 104.11 −0.56 (−0.54%)

Important events today:

– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

03 Jun

OPEC+ extending key oil production cuts

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 1.51% (for the week -1.03%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was up by 0.80% (for the week -0.07%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.01% (for the week -0.31%). Stocks rallied sharply in the last 20 minutes of the session on Friday, reversing losses seen earlier in the day. The volatility arose partly due to the last trading day of the month and the rebalancing of some stock indexes.

On Friday, the US equity indices received support from a 4.6 bps decline in 10-year T-note yields on the back of the expected US PCE deflator, which kept hopes alive for a Fed interest rate cut later this year. The April PCE deflator report of 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y was unchanged from March and in line with market expectations. The April report on core PCE deflator 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y also matched market expectations. The nominal and real PCE deflators are still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, but these measures are at least near or at 3-year lows. The PCE deflator is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Dell Technologies (DELL) fell 17.87% after reporting earnings that were below expectations and undermined high hopes for the company’s artificial intelligence server products.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.01% (for the week -1.10%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.18% (for the week -1.18%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.14% (for the week +0.55%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.54% (for the week -0.77%).

Eurozone government bond yields rose on Friday amid a disappointing Eurozone CPI report. The preliminary Eurozone CPI for May rose to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% in April and was slightly stronger than market expectations of 2.5%. Eurozone preliminary core CPI for May rose to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% in April and was stronger than market expectations of 2.7%. After this week’s meeting, Friday’s CPI report dampened expectations of a further ECB rate cut. Swaps estimate the probability of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on June 6 at 96%. If the ECB cuts rates by 25 bps this week as expected, markets expect a 0% probability of another rate cut at the next meeting on July 18 and a 50% probability of a rate cut at the September 12 meeting.

OPEC+ has extended production cuts in an attempt to support a fragile market and has also set a date for oil production to resume later this year. This includes a voluntary production cut of 3.66 million bpd expiring at the end of 2024 and extending another round of cuts of 2.2 million bpd through the end of the third quarter of this year. Meanwhile, eight OPEC+ countries have said they plan to phase out additional cuts of 2.2 million bpd annually from October 2024 to September 2025.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.72% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.89% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 2.83% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.96%.

The offshore yuan fell to 7.263 per dollar, primarily due to seasonal demand for foreign currency, which puts downward pressure on the exchange rate. Such demand usually occurs between May and August, when Chinese companies listed overseas must buy foreign currencies to pay dividends to their shareholders abroad, forcing them to sell yuan.

The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in May 2024 from 51.4 in April, beating forecasts of 51.5. It was the seventh straight month of growth in factory activity and the fastest pace since June 2022, as output rose by the most in 23 months amid a rise in new orders.

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate for May 2024 eased to 2.84% from 3.0% in April, beating market expectations of 2.94%. It was the lowest since February and remained within the central bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5% as food prices rose the least since January (6.18% vs. 7.04% in April).

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3 in May 2024, unchanged from the previous month. This marked the second consecutive month of increased activity at enterprises because of strong growth in new orders and accelerating output growth. Foreign sales increased, albeit to a lesser extent than total new orders. Although employment declined for the second consecutive month, work in progress remained stable, and purchasing activity picked up again as demand for products increased.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,277.51 +42.03 (+0.80%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,686.32 +574.84 (+1.51%)

DAX (DE40) 18,497.94 +1.15 (+0.01%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,275.38 +44.33 (+0.54%)

USD Index 104.63 −0.09 (−0.09%)

Important events today:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Caixin China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

03 Jun

Trade of the Week: USDInd seeks fresh directional catalyst

By ForexTime

USDInd ends May ↓1.7%

ECB meeting & NFP in focus

Over past year ECB triggered moves of 0.6% ↑ or ↓

Trapped in D1 range since mid-May

Technical levels – 105.20 and 104.20

After bouncing within a 1000-point range since mid-May, FXTM’s USDInd is on breakout watch!

A high-risk cocktail featuring the European Central Bank (ECB) and US jobs report could rock the index this week.

Note: FXTM’s USDInd tracks the US Dollar Index. This measures how the dollar performs against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

Interestingly, the dollar depreciated against every single G10 currency in May.

Three heavy-hitting events in May knocked the dollar.

Starting from the dovish Fed meeting, soft US April jobs report, and cooler-than-expected CPI print. Last Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – core PCE also printed below market forecasts, keeping the doors open for lower interest rates in 2024.

With all the above said, here are 3 reasons why the USDInd could see significant moves this week:

1) ECB rate decision

The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday, June 6th.

So, the focus will be on the press conference for fresh insight into what to expect in H2, especially after Germany and Eurozone inflation edged up in May.

Note: The Euro accounts for almost 60% of the US Dollar Index weighting. A weaker euro tends to push the index higher and vice versa.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 90% probability of a second 25-basis point cut by October with the odds of a third cut by the end of 2024 around 40%.

The USDInd could push higher if the ECB strikes a dovish tone, and signals further cuts down the road.

Should the central bank sound more hawkish and signal a “one and done” rate cut for 2024, this may send the USDInd lower.

Fun fact: Over the past 12 months, the ECB rate decision has sparked upside moves as much as 0.6% or declines of 0.6% in the 6 hours post-release.

2) US May NFP report

This major economic release is likely to influence expectations around when the Fed cuts rates in 2024.

Markets expect the US economy to have created 190k jobs in May, compared to the 175k in the previous month while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.9%.

Traders are currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 25-basis point cut by September with this jumping to over 90% by November.

A soft jobs report that boosts Fed cut bets may send the USDInd lower.

If the jobs data prints above market forecasts, this may push the USDInd higher.

Fun fact: Over the past 12 months, the US jobs report has trigged up moves as much as 0.4% or declines of 0.6% in the 6 hours after release.

3) Technical forces

Prices remain in a range on the daily charts with support at 104.20 and resistance at 105.20.

A sold breakout above 105.20 may signal a move towards 105.60.

Should prices slip below 104.20, bears may be encouraged to target 103.90.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (25,247 contracts) with Soybeans (19,074 contracts), Live Cattle (10,199 contracts), Soybean Oil (8,014 contracts), Cotton (7,870 contracts), Cocoa (3,679 contracts) and Coffee (3,647 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-9,805 contracts), Lean Hogs (-9,200 contracts), Sugar (-3,316 contracts) and with Wheat (-1,871 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Soybean Meal (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (14 percent) and Soybean Oil (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (27.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.6 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.1 percent)
Coffee (87.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.8 percent)
Soybeans (40.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (35.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (17.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (12.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (74.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (64.0 percent)
Live Cattle (44.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (40.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (48.5 percent)
Cotton (14.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.6 percent)
Cocoa (43.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (39.4 percent)
Wheat (57.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (58.8 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (52 percent) and Soybeans (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (34 percent), Corn (20 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-34 percent), Sugar (-19 percent) and Coffee (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.9 percent)
Sugar (-19.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-32.7 percent)
Coffee (-12.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.8 percent)
Soybeans (34.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (52.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.7 percent)
Live Cattle (19.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-35.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-24.1 percent)
Cotton (-33.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-54.8 percent)
Cocoa (-1.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-6.1 percent)
Wheat (33.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (27.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	42.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	36.3	11.7
– Net Position:	-51,632	90,934	-39,302
– Gross Longs:	337,903	650,550	141,411
– Gross Shorts:	389,535	559,616	180,713
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	74.6	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-16.4	-39.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 5,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	53.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	52.6	8.8
– Net Position:	5,105	8,283	-13,388
– Gross Longs:	203,331	468,232	63,624
– Gross Shorts:	198,226	459,949	77,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	2.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	16.0	-1.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 63,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,386 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	35.0	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	63.4	2.6
– Net Position:	63,033	-66,372	3,339
– Gross Longs:	81,146	81,873	9,381
– Gross Shorts:	18,113	148,245	6,042
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	12.1	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.1	8.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	57.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	51.7	9.2
– Net Position:	-25,908	44,728	-18,820
– Gross Longs:	129,688	459,817	54,827
– Gross Shorts:	155,596	415,089	73,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	62.2	62.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.4	-31.4	-28.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	53.9	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	50.1	4.5
– Net Position:	-28,264	21,264	7,000
– Gross Longs:	112,590	300,740	31,971
– Gross Shorts:	140,854	279,476	24,971
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	81.3	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-6.6	22.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 114,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	35.8	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	65.2	5.4
– Net Position:	114,521	-139,803	25,282
– Gross Longs:	167,296	170,310	50,943
– Gross Shorts:	52,775	310,113	25,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	22.3	69.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	52.2	-54.5	45.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	32.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	49.8	13.0
– Net Position:	60,855	-49,742	-11,113
– Gross Longs:	119,356	95,952	26,865
– Gross Shorts:	58,501	145,694	37,978
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.6	61.9	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-16.8	-21.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	39.3	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	42.7	9.4
– Net Position:	13,662	-9,301	-4,361
– Gross Longs:	81,944	108,350	21,540
– Gross Shorts:	68,282	117,651	25,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	60.4	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.2	36.2	12.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	44.8	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	48.4	5.2
– Net Position:	7,678	-8,136	458
– Gross Longs:	70,382	102,573	12,272
– Gross Shorts:	62,704	110,709	11,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	84.8	18.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.6	32.4	-19.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,679 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	34.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	59.7	3.7
– Net Position:	32,570	-38,425	5,855
– Gross Longs:	48,416	52,941	11,504
– Gross Shorts:	15,846	91,366	5,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.2	53.5	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	2.1	-6.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	36.1	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	31.1	9.2
– Net Position:	-14,393	21,208	-6,815
– Gross Longs:	127,585	154,247	32,381
– Gross Shorts:	141,978	133,039	39,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	42.5	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-30.0	-35.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

02 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a total rise of 6,779 contracts for the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-6,172 contracts), Silver (-2,461 contracts), Palladium (-655 contracts), Steel (-314 contracts) and Platinum (-82 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (97 percent), Copper (94 percent), Platinum (92 percent), Gold (83 percent) and Steel (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week and are all in Extreme-Bullish territory.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (83.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.9 percent)
Silver (96.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (94.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (91.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (91.8 percent)
Palladium (15.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (19.3 percent)
Steel (79.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.0 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (25 percent) and Copper (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (16 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.3 percent)
Silver (5.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (8.9 percent)
Copper (16.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.0 percent)
Platinum (24.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (23.1 percent)
Palladium (-12.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.4 percent)
Steel (-6.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-10.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 236,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 229,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.1	22.5	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	76.2	5.6
– Net Position:	236,585	-260,950	24,365
– Gross Longs:	286,737	109,181	51,528
– Gross Shorts:	50,152	370,131	27,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	18.8	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.6	11.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,644 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	24.8	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	68.7	6.4
– Net Position:	57,183	-81,072	23,889
– Gross Longs:	91,730	45,930	35,705
– Gross Shorts:	34,547	127,002	11,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.6	2.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-8.0	18.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 65,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.4	26.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	52.4	4.3
– Net Position:	65,522	-76,754	11,232
– Gross Longs:	153,739	79,821	24,148
– Gross Shorts:	88,217	156,575	12,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.3	4.3	90.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-17.8	17.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 27,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -82 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,649 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	18.9	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	53.3	5.2
– Net Position:	27,567	-32,140	4,573
– Gross Longs:	58,272	17,725	9,420
– Gross Shorts:	30,705	49,865	4,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.6	5.9	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-22.7	-10.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	55.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.5	10.4	7.1
– Net Position:	-11,079	10,681	398
– Gross Longs:	6,257	13,139	2,078
– Gross Shorts:	17,336	2,458	1,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	85.6	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	10.1	23.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	79.8	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	64.2	1.3
– Net Position:	-4,329	4,360	-31
– Gross Longs:	3,719	22,396	344
– Gross Shorts:	8,048	18,036	375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	21.2	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.5	-10.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

02 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 5-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (45,688 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (29,660 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (13,850 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (12,797 contracts),the Ultra Treasury Bonds (10,849 contracts), the Fed Funds (9,032 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7,379 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The only bond market with a decline in speculator bets was the SOFR 3-Months with a decrease of -49,251 contracts on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (99 percent) and the Fed Funds (82 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (32 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (82.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (80.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (31.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (30.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (46.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (45.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (98.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (88.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (57.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (53.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (37.6 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (1 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-19 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (1.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (18.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-2.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (31.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-18.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-33.4 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -487,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -49,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -438,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	60.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	55.6	0.4
– Net Position:	-487,408	489,903	-2,495
– Gross Longs:	1,397,251	6,434,234	35,655
– Gross Shorts:	1,884,659	5,944,331	38,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	64.9	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	18.6	0.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 64,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	56.9	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	60.5	2.0
– Net Position:	64,283	-63,229	-1,054
– Gross Longs:	350,244	992,025	34,238
– Gross Shorts:	285,961	1,055,254	35,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	16.2	88.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-0.2	-8.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -979,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -993,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	56.9	4.0
– Net Position:	-979,819	826,543	153,276
– Gross Longs:	488,475	3,175,073	317,155
– Gross Shorts:	1,468,294	2,348,530	163,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	63.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	0.8	8.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,377,117 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 45,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,422,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	81.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	62.1	6.2
– Net Position:	-1,377,117	1,304,941	72,176
– Gross Longs:	390,636	5,430,187	485,314
– Gross Shorts:	1,767,753	4,125,246	413,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	97.7	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	17.9	-10.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -388,175 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -400,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	71.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	64.6	9.2
– Net Position:	-388,175	353,169	35,006
– Gross Longs:	498,320	3,520,410	485,757
– Gross Shorts:	886,495	3,167,241	450,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	40.2	81.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	0.4	5.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -230,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	73.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	60.0	13.1
– Net Position:	-230,765	310,709	-79,944
– Gross Longs:	257,569	1,680,482	220,053
– Gross Shorts:	488,334	1,369,773	299,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	90.5	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	5.2	-2.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	66.8	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	71.4	10.1
– Net Position:	43,836	-78,798	34,962
– Gross Longs:	278,502	1,131,701	205,371
– Gross Shorts:	234,666	1,210,499	170,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.8	0.0	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.8	-18.7	-4.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -318,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -328,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	74.8	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	58.4	11.7
– Net Position:	-318,068	302,721	15,347
– Gross Longs:	152,466	1,383,342	232,468
– Gross Shorts:	470,534	1,080,621	217,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	44.6	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	4.9	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

02 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was with the S&P500-Mini (20,566 contracts), the VIX (8,648 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (5,188 contracts), the Russell-Mini (3,739 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (609 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-8,444 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (-6,965 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (82 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (69 percent) and Nikkei 225 (66 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (59.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (64.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (61.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (81.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (93.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (33.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (46.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (61.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (58.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (66.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (41.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.8 percent)

Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The VIX (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-21.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-21.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-11.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-0.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (5.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-19.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (3.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-2.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-19.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-20.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	40.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	30.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-42,744	41,398	1,346
– Gross Longs:	82,966	165,143	30,267
– Gross Shorts:	125,710	123,745	28,921
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.9	25.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	16.8	24.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 20,566 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	69.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	73.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-2,208	-105,944	108,152
– Gross Longs:	330,937	1,503,708	289,071
– Gross Shorts:	333,145	1,609,652	180,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	25.3	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	11.1	-1.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	54.9	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	73.1	11.3
– Net Position:	13,144	-17,654	4,510
– Gross Longs:	22,285	53,401	15,471
– Gross Shorts:	9,141	71,055	10,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	12.6	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	-1.7	8.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	54.4	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	57.0	13.2
– Net Position:	-3,726	-6,683	10,409
– Gross Longs:	68,402	138,387	43,934
– Gross Shorts:	72,128	145,070	33,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	45.2	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.0	12.3	2.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	73.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	67.7	4.5
– Net Position:	-33,845	27,036	6,809
– Gross Longs:	82,901	343,514	27,628
– Gross Shorts:	116,746	316,478	20,819
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	37.8	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-4.5	8.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	61.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	61.2	15.5
– Net Position:	-1,636	49	1,587
– Gross Longs:	1,823	9,739	4,033
– Gross Shorts:	3,459	9,690	2,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	26.8	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.1	0.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	89.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	85.2	1.6
– Net Position:	-24,369	18,742	5,627
– Gross Longs:	29,861	381,756	12,467
– Gross Shorts:	54,230	363,014	6,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	56.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	19.1	0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

31 May

Week Ahead: Brent waits on OPEC+ meeting

By ForexTime

Brent ↑ 6% year-to-date

Headed for biggest monthly ↓ in 2024

OPEC+ decision, EIA data & NFP in focus

Over past year NFP triggered moves of 1% ↑ or ↓

Technical levels – $84.50 & $81.00

Key central bank decisions and top-tier economic data could rock markets in the week ahead:

Sunday, 2nd June

OIL: OPEC+ virtual meeting

Monday, 3rd June

CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
EU50: Eurozone/Germany manufacturing PMI
JPY: Japan capital spending
UK100: UK manufacturing PMI
US500: ISM manufacturing

Tuesday, 4th June

GER40: Germany unemployment
ZAR: South Africa GDP
RUS2000: US factory orders, JOLTS

Wednesday, 5th June

CN50: China Caixin services PMI
AU200: Australia GDP
EU50: Eurozone services PMI, PPI
CAD: Canada rate decision
US30: US ISM services
OIL: EIA weekly report

Thursday, 6th June

AU200: Australia trade balance
EUR: ECB rate decision, retail sales
GER40: Germany factory orders
TWN: Taiwan CPI

Friday, 7th June

CNH: China trade, forex reserves
CAD: Canada unemployment
EU50: Eurozone GDP (final), Germany industrial production
TWN: Taiwan trade
USDInd: US May nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

The spotlight shines on oil benchmarks thanks to the OPEC+ decision over the weekend.

Brent has shed almost 5% this month but is still up roughly 6% since the start of 2024.

In the first quarter of 2024, oil prices were initially supported by geopolitical risks and hopes around OPEC+ supply cuts tightening global markets. But gains have been capped in Q2 amid uncertainty over China’s demand and rising US crude inventories.

Still, oil benchmarks could kick off the first week of June with a bang! Here are 4 reasons why:

1) OPEC+ virtual meeting.

Over the weekend, OPEC+ is expected to extend current production cuts – possibly to the end of this year.

Considering that the cartel accounts for roughly 40% of total global oil supply, any decisions are likely to impact oil prices.

Note: Back in November 2023, OPEC+ agreed to voluntarily cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day through the first quarter of 2024. In March, these were extended through the end of June 2024.

Oil prices could respond positively if the cartel extends production cuts.

Any surprises in the form of deeper cuts may trigger a stronger bullish reaction.

If OPEC+ fails to extend production cuts, this could send oil prices lower.

2) US Energy Information Agency (EIA) report

With the spotlight on oil markets, attention will be directed toward the next EIA report published on Wednesday 5th June.

Interestingly, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended May 24. However, US oil stockpiles have been climbing since the final quarter of 2023.

A decline in US crude inventories could spark optimism around demand, pushing the global commodity higher as a result.

Oil prices may slip if a build in US crude inventories hits the demand outlook.

Fun fact: Over the past year, the US EIA report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.9% or declines of 1.3% in the 6 hours post-release.

3) US May nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

The US economy is expected to have created 180k jobs in May, while the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.9%.

Considering how the NFP directly impacts interest rate expectations, it could influence oil prices.

Note: Lower interest rates could stimulate economic growth, translating to increased demand for oil. This may also weaken the dollar – supporting oil which is priced in dollars.

A solid jobs report that supports the case for “higher for longer rates” could send oil lower.

Oil could jump if a disappointing report weakens the dollar and fuels rate cut bets.

Fun fact: Over the past 12 months, the US jobs report has sparked upside moves of as much as 1% or declines of 1% in the 6 hours post-release.

4) Technical forces

Brent is trapped within a range on the daily charts with support at $81.00 and resistance at $84.50. However, prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero.

A solid breakdown below $81.00 may open a path toward $80.00 and $77.50.

Should prices push back the 100-day SMA, this could open a path toward $84.50. and the 50-day SMA.

Note: Oil prices may be influenced by the incoming US PCE data later today.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

31 May

Investors’ focus today is on the PCE Price Index data. Conditions for inflation growth are forming in Japan

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.86%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) is down 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.08%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US500) fell to a 2-week low, the Dow Jones (US30) fell to a 4-week low, and the NASDAQ (US100) fell to a 1-week low. Stocks came under pressure due to concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold longer, leading to a decline in risk sentiment in asset markets. The US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 219,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than expected at 217,000. The US Q1 GDP was revised downward to 1.3% (q/q annualized) from 1.6%, which aligned with expectations. Today, markets await Friday’s PCE deflator data for April, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for clues on when the Fed might start cutting interest rates. The core PCE deflator for April is expected to be unchanged from March at 2.8% y/y.

Salesforce (CRM) is down more than 19%. It tops the list of losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after reporting first-quarter revenue of $9.13 billion, below the consensus of $9.15 billion, and estimating 2025 revenue of $37.7 billion to $38.0 billion, weaker than the consensus of $38.01 billion. Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than 3% after Bloomberg reported that the US is slowing licenses to chipmakers for large-scale shipments of artificial intelligence gas pedals to the Middle East. At the same time, officials conduct a national security review of AI development in the region. HP Inc (HPQ) stock price rose more than 16% and topped the list of top gainers in the S&P 500 after the company reported second-quarter net revenue of $12.80 billion, beating the consensus prognosis of $12.60 billion. Shares of PayPal Holdings (PYPL) rose more than 2% and topped the Nasdaq 100 leaderboard after Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” with a $90 price target.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.55%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.73%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.59%.

The Eurozone unemployment rate for April unexpectedly fell by 0.1 to a record low of 6.4%, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 6.5%. Spain’s May CPI (EU harmonized) rose to 3.8% y/y, exceeding expectations of 3.7% y/y and the largest increase in 13 months. May Eurozone economic confidence rose by 0.4 to 96.0, slightly weaker than expectations of 96.1. Strong Eurozone economic data, along with rising inflationary pressures, may force the ECB to become more hawkish after the first rate cut in June.

WTI crude futures fell to $77.5 a barrel on Friday, declining for the third consecutive session, as uncertainty over demand weighs on oil markets. Revised data on Thursday showed the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the first quarter, down from preliminary estimates of 1.6%. A Federal Reserve official also said she remained concerned about upside risks to inflation and urged caution in policy adjustments, another blow to hopes of lower US interest rates. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels last week, compared with expectations of a 1.9 million barrel decline. Investors now await the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, which is expected to extend supply cuts through 2025.

Asian markets were mostly down on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.30% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.34%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.49%.

The offshore yuan stabilized at 7.25 per dollar after falling to its lowest level in more than a month in the previous session, reacting to weaker-than-expected Chinese PMI data and recent developments in the US. The latest data showed that China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell to 49.5 in May 2024 from April’s 50.4, falling short of the market’s prognosis of 50.5. The contraction, the first since February, raised concerns about the health of China’s economy and prompted new stimulus measures.

Retail sales in Japan rose by 2.4% year-on-year in April 2024, accelerating after a downwardly revised 1.1% increase in the previous month, which was the lowest in two years. The data exceeded market estimates of 1.9%, marking the 26th consecutive month of retail sales growth. Preliminary data showed that Japan’s industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in April 2024, missing market prognoses for a 0.9% rise and bouncing back from a 4.4% increase, the sharpest increase since June 2022. Japan’s unemployment rate stood at 2.6% in April 2024, unchanged for the third month and in line with market estimates. It is the highest unemployment rate since September last year. The core Consumer Price Index in Tokyo, Japan, rose to 1.9% year-on-year in May 2024, accelerating from a two-year low of 1.6% in April, which aligns with expectations. The Tokyo inflation data is a leading indicator of price developments across the country, as national CPI data will be released in about three weeks.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,235.48 −31.47 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,111.48 −330.06 (−0.86%)

DAX (DE40) 18,496.79 +23.50 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,231.05 +47.98 (+0.59%)

USD Index 104.75 +0.14 (+0.13%)

Important events today:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand Annual Budget Release at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Core PCE Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

31 May

New Zealand Dollar gains for second day against US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The New Zealand dollar continues its ascent for the second consecutive session against the US dollar, resulting in the NZD/USD pair climbing to 0.6125. This increase is attributed to recent US economic data indicating slower-than-expected growth in Q1, suggesting the possibility of an interest rate cut by the end of the year.

The market is now focused on the upcoming release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) report, a pivotal inflation measure for the Federal Reserve. The report’s outcome could offer further insights into the Fed’s future actions.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand government has unveiled its annual budget report, which includes modest tax relief and spending cuts due to subdued economic growth. Other concerns for the economy include rising unemployment and a weak trade balance.

Today’s speech by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor is highly anticipated, particularly following the central bank’s recent policy meeting.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is developing within a wide consolidation range around 0.6136. A downward impulse to 0.6088 has been observed. Today, the market might see a corrective move to 0.6137 (testing from below). Following this correction, a new decline to 0.6070 is anticipated, with a potential breakdown of this level leading to a further decrease to 0.6002. The bearish scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and directed downwards. Notably, there is a significant divergence between the peaks on the chart and the indicator, which traders should monitor closely.

On the H1 chart, after forming a downward impulse to 0.6088, a correction to 0.6137 may occur today. Upon its completion, a new downward wave to 0.6075 is expected, with a potential continuation to 0.6000. This target is the first one in the expected downward trend. The technical setup is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently above 80 but is pointing sharply downwards, indicating the potential for a decline.

Summary

The NZD/USD pair’s upward movement directly reflects recent US economic data and the market’s expectations of potential Fed policy adjustments. Technical indicators suggest possible short-term corrections followed by further declines, providing critical levels for traders to watch as market conditions evolve. Today’s speech by the RBNZ Governor could introduce volatility to the trading session, further impacting the currency’s movement.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.