Archive for Financial News – Page 127

31 May

Week Ahead: Brent waits on OPEC+ meeting

By ForexTime 

  • Brent ↑ 6% year-to-date
  • Headed for biggest monthly ↓ in 2024
  • OPEC+ decision, EIA data & NFP in focus
  • Over past year NFP triggered moves of 1% ↑ or ↓
  • Technical levels – $84.50 & $81.00

Key central bank decisions and top-tier economic data could rock markets in the week ahead:

Sunday, 2nd June

  • OIL: OPEC+ virtual meeting

Monday, 3rd June

  • CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • EU50: Eurozone/Germany manufacturing PMI
  • JPY: Japan capital spending
  • UK100: UK manufacturing PMI
  • US500: ISM manufacturing

Tuesday, 4th June

  • GER40: Germany unemployment
  • ZAR: South Africa GDP
  • RUS2000: US factory orders, JOLTS

Wednesday, 5th June

  • CN50: China Caixin services PMI
  • AU200: Australia GDP
  • EU50: Eurozone services PMI, PPI
  • CAD: Canada rate decision
  • US30: US ISM services
  • OIL: EIA weekly report

Thursday, 6th June  

  • AU200: Australia trade balance
  • EUR: ECB rate decision, retail sales
  • GER40: Germany factory orders
  • TWN: Taiwan CPI

Friday, 7th June

  • CNH: China trade, forex reserves
  • CAD: Canada unemployment
  • EU50: Eurozone GDP (final), Germany industrial production
  • TWN: Taiwan trade
  • USDInd: US May nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

The spotlight shines on oil benchmarks thanks to the OPEC+ decision over the weekend.

Brent has shed almost 5% this month but is still up roughly 6% since the start of 2024.

In the first quarter of 2024, oil prices were initially supported by geopolitical risks and hopes around OPEC+ supply cuts tightening global markets. But gains have been capped in Q2 amid uncertainty over China’s demand and rising US crude inventories.

Still, oil benchmarks could kick off the first week of June with a bang! Here are 4 reasons why:

    1) OPEC+ virtual meeting.

Over the weekend, OPEC+ is expected to extend current production cuts – possibly to the end of this year.

Considering that the cartel accounts for roughly 40% of total global oil supply, any decisions are likely to impact oil prices.

Note: Back in November 2023, OPEC+ agreed to voluntarily cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day through the first quarter of 2024. In March, these were extended through the end of June 2024.

  • Oil prices could respond positively if the cartel extends production cuts.
  • Any surprises in the form of deeper cuts may trigger a stronger bullish reaction.
  • If OPEC+ fails to extend production cuts, this could send oil prices lower.

 

    2) US Energy Information Agency (EIA) report

With the spotlight on oil markets, attention will be directed toward the next EIA report published on Wednesday 5th June.

Interestingly, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended May 24. However, US oil stockpiles have been climbing since the final quarter of 2023.

  • A decline in US crude inventories could spark optimism around demand, pushing the global commodity higher as a result.
  • Oil prices may slip if a build in US crude inventories hits the demand outlook.

Fun fact: Over the past year, the US EIA report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.9% or declines of 1.3% in the 6 hours post-release.

 

    3) US May nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

The US economy is expected to have created 180k jobs in May, while the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.9%.

Considering how the NFP directly impacts interest rate expectations, it could influence oil prices.

Note: Lower interest rates could stimulate economic growth, translating to increased demand for oil. This may also weaken the dollar – supporting oil which is priced in dollars.

  • A solid jobs report that supports the case for “higher for longer rates” could send oil lower.
  • Oil could jump if a disappointing report weakens the dollar and fuels rate cut bets.

Fun fact: Over the past 12 months, the US jobs report has sparked upside moves of as much as 1% or declines of 1% in the 6 hours post-release.

 

    4) Technical forces

Brent is trapped within a range on the daily charts with support at $81.00 and resistance at $84.50. However, prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero.

  • A solid breakdown below $81.00 may open a path toward $80.00 and $77.50.
  • Should prices push back the 100-day SMA, this could open a path toward $84.50. and the 50-day SMA.

Note: Oil prices may be influenced by the incoming US PCE data later today.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
31 May

Investors’ focus today is on the PCE Price Index data. Conditions for inflation growth are forming in Japan

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.86%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) is down 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.08%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US500) fell to a 2-week low, the Dow Jones (US30) fell to a 4-week low, and the NASDAQ (US100) fell to a 1-week low. Stocks came under pressure due to concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold longer, leading to a decline in risk sentiment in asset markets. The US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 219,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than expected at 217,000. The US Q1 GDP was revised downward to 1.3% (q/q annualized) from 1.6%, which aligned with expectations. Today, markets await Friday’s PCE deflator data for April, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for clues on when the Fed might start cutting interest rates. The core PCE deflator for April is expected to be unchanged from March at 2.8% y/y.

Salesforce (CRM) is down more than 19%. It tops the list of losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after reporting first-quarter revenue of $9.13 billion, below the consensus of $9.15 billion, and estimating 2025 revenue of $37.7 billion to $38.0 billion, weaker than the consensus of $38.01 billion. Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than 3% after Bloomberg reported that the US is slowing licenses to chipmakers for large-scale shipments of artificial intelligence gas pedals to the Middle East. At the same time, officials conduct a national security review of AI development in the region. HP Inc (HPQ) stock price rose more than 16% and topped the list of top gainers in the S&P 500 after the company reported second-quarter net revenue of $12.80 billion, beating the consensus prognosis of $12.60 billion. Shares of PayPal Holdings (PYPL) rose more than 2% and topped the Nasdaq 100 leaderboard after Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” with a $90 price target.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.55%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.73%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.59%.

The Eurozone unemployment rate for April unexpectedly fell by 0.1 to a record low of 6.4%, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 6.5%. Spain’s May CPI (EU harmonized) rose to 3.8% y/y, exceeding expectations of 3.7% y/y and the largest increase in 13 months. May Eurozone economic confidence rose by 0.4 to 96.0, slightly weaker than expectations of 96.1. Strong Eurozone economic data, along with rising inflationary pressures, may force the ECB to become more hawkish after the first rate cut in June.

WTI crude futures fell to $77.5 a barrel on Friday, declining for the third consecutive session, as uncertainty over demand weighs on oil markets. Revised data on Thursday showed the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the first quarter, down from preliminary estimates of 1.6%. A Federal Reserve official also said she remained concerned about upside risks to inflation and urged caution in policy adjustments, another blow to hopes of lower US interest rates. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels last week, compared with expectations of a 1.9 million barrel decline. Investors now await the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, which is expected to extend supply cuts through 2025.

Asian markets were mostly down on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.30% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.34%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.49%.

The offshore yuan stabilized at 7.25 per dollar after falling to its lowest level in more than a month in the previous session, reacting to weaker-than-expected Chinese PMI data and recent developments in the US. The latest data showed that China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell to 49.5 in May 2024 from April’s 50.4, falling short of the market’s prognosis of 50.5. The contraction, the first since February, raised concerns about the health of China’s economy and prompted new stimulus measures.

Retail sales in Japan rose by 2.4% year-on-year in April 2024, accelerating after a downwardly revised 1.1% increase in the previous month, which was the lowest in two years. The data exceeded market estimates of 1.9%, marking the 26th consecutive month of retail sales growth. Preliminary data showed that Japan’s industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in April 2024, missing market prognoses for a 0.9% rise and bouncing back from a 4.4% increase, the sharpest increase since June 2022. Japan’s unemployment rate stood at 2.6% in April 2024, unchanged for the third month and in line with market estimates. It is the highest unemployment rate since September last year. The core Consumer Price Index in Tokyo, Japan, rose to 1.9% year-on-year in May 2024, accelerating from a two-year low of 1.6% in April, which aligns with expectations. The Tokyo inflation data is a leading indicator of price developments across the country, as national CPI data will be released in about three weeks.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,235.48 −31.47 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,111.48 −330.06 (−0.86%)

DAX (DE40) 18,496.79 +23.50 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,231.05 +47.98 (+0.59%)

USD Index 104.75 +0.14 (+0.13%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand Annual Budget Release at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Core PCE Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
31 May

New Zealand Dollar gains for second day against US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The New Zealand dollar continues its ascent for the second consecutive session against the US dollar, resulting in the NZD/USD pair climbing to 0.6125. This increase is attributed to recent US economic data indicating slower-than-expected growth in Q1, suggesting the possibility of an interest rate cut by the end of the year.

The market is now focused on the upcoming release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) report, a pivotal inflation measure for the Federal Reserve. The report’s outcome could offer further insights into the Fed’s future actions.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand government has unveiled its annual budget report, which includes modest tax relief and spending cuts due to subdued economic growth. Other concerns for the economy include rising unemployment and a weak trade balance.

Today’s speech by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor is highly anticipated, particularly following the central bank’s recent policy meeting.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is developing within a wide consolidation range around 0.6136. A downward impulse to 0.6088 has been observed. Today, the market might see a corrective move to 0.6137 (testing from below). Following this correction, a new decline to 0.6070 is anticipated, with a potential breakdown of this level leading to a further decrease to 0.6002. The bearish scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and directed downwards. Notably, there is a significant divergence between the peaks on the chart and the indicator, which traders should monitor closely.

On the H1 chart, after forming a downward impulse to 0.6088, a correction to 0.6137 may occur today. Upon its completion, a new downward wave to 0.6075 is expected, with a potential continuation to 0.6000. This target is the first one in the expected downward trend. The technical setup is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently above 80 but is pointing sharply downwards, indicating the potential for a decline.

Summary

The NZD/USD pair’s upward movement directly reflects recent US economic data and the market’s expectations of potential Fed policy adjustments. Technical indicators suggest possible short-term corrections followed by further declines, providing critical levels for traders to watch as market conditions evolve. Today’s speech by the RBNZ Governor could introduce volatility to the trading session, further impacting the currency’s movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
30 May

Brent crude oil declines again

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity market, struggling to maintain its upward momentum, frequently slips into sell-offs. On Thursday, the price of Brent crude oil fell to 83.60 USD per barrel.

On Wednesday evening, Brent lost almost 1% of its value due to expectations regarding lending costs. Market discussions revolved around the possibility that the Federal Reserve’s interest rates could remain high for an extended period. This outlook is detrimental to the demand prospects for energy resources.

The yield on US government bonds increased on Wednesday, dragging the USD along and exerting significant pressure on the entire spectrum of commodity assets, including oil. This development raises concerns as commodities become less attractive to investors who pay in US dollars. Market participants speculated on the consequences if the Federal Reserve postpones the beginning of the easing cycle or decides not to lower rates at all this year.

According to the API, fresh statistics showed that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 6.490 million barrels for the week. Gasoline stocks decreased by 0.452 million barrels, while distillate reserves rose by 2.045 million.

With June approaching, concerns grow regarding the upcoming OPEC meeting this Sunday.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent made its first upward impulse towards 84.66. Today, a corrective wave is developing towards 82.55, with an anticipated formation of a consolidation range above this level. An upward breakout from this range is expected to initiate a new growth wave towards 84.70. Breaking through this level could extend the trend to 86.50, representing a short-term target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero and is pointing strictly upwards.

On the H1 chart, Brent completed a growth impulse structure to 84.66. It is currently correcting to 83.60. A consolidation range has formed below this level. An upward breakout from this range will signal the start of a growth wave towards 85.00 while breaking downwards will open up the potential for a correction to 82.55. After this correction, a new growth wave towards 85.00 could develop. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the 20 mark. A new growth structure to the 80 mark is expected.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
30 May

Traders further lowered their expectations for a Fed interest rate cut this year

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.06% and fell to a 3-week low. The S&P 500 index (US500) was down 1.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.58%. Stocks declined amid rising bond yields driven by hawkish remarks from Fed officials. On Wednesday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the path to 2% inflation is not guaranteed and that the scope for price increases is still significant. This came from recent comments from Minneapolis FRB President Kashkari, who said the US Central Bank should hold off on cutting rates until inflation improves significantly. Markets are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a rate cut to 0% at the June 12 FOMC meeting and 10% at the next meeting on July 31.

The Richmond Fed’s May survey of the US manufacturing outlook rose 7 to a 7-month high, beating expectations of no change at negative 7. The Fed’s Beige Book was neutral for stocks, showing that the US economy has grown at a “slight to moderate” pace in most regions since early April. Employment grew at a modest pace, with eight of twelve counties reporting “slight to moderate job growth,” and prices rose at a “moderate pace,” with business officials noting that consumers are resisting additional price increases.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.86%.

The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for June rose by 3.1 to a 2-year high of negative 20.9, which was stronger than expectations of negative 22.5. May German CPI (EU harmonized) rose to 2.8% y/y, beating expectations of 2.7% y/y and the largest increase in 4 months. ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks said the ECB should not go on “autopilot” when cutting interest rates after the expected rate cut next week.

WTI crude oil prices held near $79 a barrel on Thursday after losing nearly 1% in the previous session, weakened by growing expectations that borrowing costs could remain high for longer, dampening the demand outlook. Commodities and other risk assets sold off on Wednesday, and bond yields rose as traders bet that the US Federal Reserve may delay the start of its easing cycle or even decide not to cut rates at all this year. Today, the EIA will release last week’s crude oil inventories report. A decline of 1.6m barrels is expected, which may support oil prices.

Asian markets were mostly rising on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.83% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.30%. In Asia, investors are awaiting the release of China’s PMI data for May on Friday to gauge the state of the world’s second-largest economy. On Wednesday, Chinese stocks rose after the IMF raised its growth prognoses to 5% from 4.6% this year thanks to strong first-quarter data and supportive policy measures.

The Australian dollar slid to $0.66, hitting its lowest level in two weeks, amid pressure from a strong US dollar and Treasury yields. Investors await the US PCE Price Index report later this week. Risk-sensitive currencies also followed broad declines in commodity prices and other risk assets.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,266.95 −39.09 (−0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,441.54 −411.32 (−1.06%)

DAX (DE40) 18,473.29 −204.58 (−1.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,183.07 −71.11 (−0.86%)

USD Index 105.14 +0.52 (+0.50%)

Important events today:
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:05 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
30 May

Target Thursday: Cotton, EURCHF & UK100 hit targets

By ForexTime 

  • Cotton bulls bag 80 points
  • EURCHF secures all 4 bearish targets
  • UK100 slams into 3rd bullish level

Anticipation was the theme this week as investors braced for the incoming US PCE data.

It felt like a typical “calm before the storm” across markets ahead of this key risk event.

Still, here are how these discussed instruments performed this week:

    1) Cotton plays the range..

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (COTTON) is based on the FXTM Signals that are released once a day before the opening of the U.S. trading session.

These signals are designed around a trading instrument’s most influential factor – PRICE – making them a powerful asset to your trading strategy.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

Although it was a week of consolidation for FXTM’s Cotton, a major rebound could still be pending.

Still, prices pushed higher this morning – triggering a bullish setup on the M30 timeframe.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Cotton has hit all its bullish profit targets.

Traders who entered at 79.81 and exited at the final target level of 80.62 would have caught roughly 80 points.

 

    2) EURCHF slides to 2-week low.

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (EURCHF) is based on the FXTM Signals that are released once a day before the opening of the U.S. trading session.

These signals are designed around a trading instrument’s most influential factor – PRICE – making them a powerful asset to your trading strategy.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The EURCHF extended declines on Thursday as the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciated across the board.  

The CHF was boosted by stronger than expected Q1 GDP figures out of Switzerland which cooled bets around the SNB’s next rate cut for 2024.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

EURCHF has hit all 4 bearish targets.

Traders who entered at 0.98590 and exited at the final target level of 0.98428 would have gained roughly 16 pips.

 

    3) UK100 hits 3rd bullish profit target

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (UK100) is based on the FXTM Signals that are released once a day before the opening of the U.S. trading session.

These signals are designed around a trading instrument’s most influential factor – PRICE – making them a powerful asset to your trading strategy.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

After initially tumbling in the previous session on inflation fears, prices stabilized this morning ahead of the PCE data on Friday.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

UK100 has hit 3 out of 4 bullish targets on the M30 timeframe,

320 points for traders  who jumped in at 8179.2 and closed out at 8211.2.

 

Feel like you missed out on these profits?

You can keep following our “Daily Market Analysis” for fresh trading ideas and opportunities across global financial markets.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
29 May

Australian dollar hits 0.6650 amid mixed economic signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.6650 on Wednesday following the release of Australian economic data. Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in April, up from 3.5% in March. This slight increase in inflation could prompt questions about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) future interest rate decisions.

Despite the uptick in inflation, it is unlikely to impact the RBA’s interest rate plans significantly. According to official forecasts, the RBA does not anticipate cutting rates before May of next year. The minutes from the latest RBA meeting indicated that while the Board was considering the possibility of a rate hike in May, it ultimately decided to maintain a stable monetary policy.

The RBA has expressed concerns that recent statistical data might sustain inflation above the target level for an extended period. However, the central bank’s current stance is to wait and see, suggesting that no immediate changes to its policy are planned in response to the latest inflation figures.

Moreover, recent retail sales data showed a marginal improvement of 0.1% month-on-month in April from a decline of 0.4% in March. Despite this positive change, the figures fell short of the anticipated 0.3% increase, disappointing the economic outlook.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD has completed a correction and is forming a new wave of decline towards the level of 0.6620. The formation of a consolidation range is expected once this level is reached. A downward exit from this range could lead to a further decline to 0.6580, the local target. A corrective move to 0.6626 (testing from below) may follow, then a decline to 0.6547. The downward trend target is the first one. The bearish indicator technically supports this MACD scenario, with its signal line above zero but directed downwards.

On the H1 chart, the AUD/USD is forming a decline structure to 0.6627. After reaching this level, a potential rise to 0.6650 could occur. Further decline to 0.6620 is also possible, and a breakdown below this level could open the potential for a decline to 0.6608, with the possibility of extending the trend to 0.6580. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 but expected to drop to 20, indicating a possible continuation of the downward trend.

Summary

Despite mixed economic indicators, the rise of the Australian dollar highlights the complex dynamics affecting the currency. The RBA’s cautious stance appears to be a significant factor in stabilising the AUD, even as inflation slightly increases. Technical analyses suggest a bearish short-term outlook, with the possibility of corrective movements. It is crucial for investors and traders to closely monitor these levels and stay abreast of global economic developments so they can adjust their strategies accordingly.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
29 May

Oil rises amid increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Inflation is rising in Australia

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.55% to a two-week low on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.03%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.59%. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s comments were somewhat hawkish for Fed policy and negative for stocks when he said the US economy remains “remarkably resilient” and the Fed should monitor whether inflation is slowing enough to justify an interest rate cut.

This Friday, markets await the PCE deflator data for April, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to see if and when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. The core PCE deflator for April is expected to be unchanged from March at 2.8% y/y.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares are up more than 4%, leading the Nasdaq 100 stock as it continues its rally from last Thursday when the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and projected better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. Shares of Dell Technologies (DELL) are up over 3%, complementing last Thursday’s and last Friday’s 7% gain after Aletheia Capital Limited initiated coverage on the stock with a “buy” recommendation and a $240 price target. Airbnb (ABNB) shares are up over 2% after Wedbush upgraded their rating to “Outperform” from “Neutral” with a $165 price target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.52%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.92%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.44%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.76%.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann said he would support an ECB interest rate cut next week but would not automatically support moves after the June rate cut. ECB Governing Council spokesman Knot said the ECB is increasingly confident that consumer price growth will return to 2% next year and may gradually ease its “historically tight” monetary policy.

WTI crude oil prices held above $80 a barrel on Wednesday, near their highest levels in four weeks, amid expectations that OPEC+ countries will extend voluntary production cuts of around 2.2 million barrels daily for the third quarter at a meeting this weekend. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East also continued to support oil prices as fighting in the Gaza Strip intensified and another ship was attacked in the Red Sea.

Asian markets were mostly up on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.11% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.03% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.28%.

The yuan fell to 7.2487 per dollar as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) gradually cut its daily discount rate for the managed currency to levels not seen in four months. The PBoC is constantly struggling to find the optimal rate of yuan depreciation to help the economy grow without causing market panic and capital outflows. The Central Bank has held the currency steady for most of the year, but pressure has been building due to rising capital outflows and weak domestic growth.

The Australian dollar stabilized near $0.665 as investors digested stronger-than-expected inflation data. The data showed that Australia’s monthly inflation rate accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 3.5% in March. This also defeated market expectations of a slowdown to 3.4% and was the highest reading since November. Markets are now betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep rates on hold for longer, with a rate cut not fully anticipated until May next year. The latest RBA meeting minutes showed that the board considered raising rates in May but ultimately decided to keep policy steady.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.44% in May 2024 from 4.4% in the previous month. This is the highest inflation rate since January 2023 as prices rose for food and beverages (4.47% vs. 4.32% in April), transportation (4.58% vs. 4.24%), and culture, entertainment, and tourism (2.01% vs. 1.94%).

S&P 500 (US500) 5,306.04 +1.32 (+0.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,852.86 −216.73 (−0.55%)

DAX (DE40) 18,677.87 −96.84 (−0.52%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,254.18 −63.41 (−0.76%)

USD Index 104.60 0 (0%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German GfK Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Energy Financial News
29 May

Bitcoin: Shaky ahead of PCE inflation data

By ForexTime 

  • Bitcoin ↑ 14 month-to-date
  • Could be rocked by US inflation data
  • Over past year PCE triggered moves of ↑ 1% & ↓ 2.3%
  • Technical levels –  $70,000 & $67,000
  • Keep eye on Ethereum, Solana & Litecoin among others

The past few days have been volatile for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin initially rallied above $70,000 last week due to market optimism around the prospect of spot Ethereum ETFs. However, prices crashed below $67,000 just hours before the SEC’s actual approval. Although bulls returned to the scene, upside gains were capped by fresh developments concerning the failed Mt. Gox exchange.

Still, Bitcoin could be in store for another wild ride this week thanks to the incoming US PCE inflation data.

All eyes will be on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the core personal consumption expenditure index which could impact bets around when the Fed will cut interest rates.

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 74% probability of a 25 basis point Fed cut in November with a move fully priced in by December.

Note: In general, cryptocurrencies are indirectly affected by interest rates because of their high risk.

So essentially, high interest rates may sap appetite for riskier investments like crypto, and vice versa.

Fun fact: Over the past year, the US PCE report has sparked upside moves of as much as 1% or declines of 2.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Just like Bitcoin, here is how these other cryptos have reacted post-release…

Ethereum: ↑ 1% or ↓ 2%

Solana: ↑ 2.4 % or ↓ 2.8%

Ripple: ↑ 1.3 % or ↓ 2%

Dogecoin: ↑ 1.5 % or ↓ 2.7%

Litecoin: ↑ 3.6 % or ↓ 3.5%

Note: Past price movements do not guarantee future results but can be used to highlight how cryptos have reacted to the US PCE deflators.

Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin is up roughly 14% this month and still boasting year-to-date gains over 60%.

Prices remain trapped within a range on the weekly charts with support at $60,000 and resistance at $72,000.

Despite the choppiness on the daily charts, prices are still respecting a bullish channel with technical indicators signalling further upside. The candlesticks are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD points above zero but bears seem to be eyeing $67,000.

  • A solid breakout above $70,000 may open a path toward $72,000.

  • Should prices slip below $67,000 this could open a path toward $65,000.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
28 May

Gold prices edge towards $2351 amid weakening US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices are on an upward trajectory, moving towards 2351.00 USD per troy ounce on Tuesday. This marks a significant rise after days of sideways movement, highlighting the metal’s renewed appeal among investors.

This surge in gold prices can be attributed to a localised weakness in the US dollar, which has investors keenly anticipating the release of critical US inflation data later this week. The focus is particularly on the Core PCE indicator set for release on Friday, which is expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate adjustments.

The market’s reaction to the upcoming data could be pivotal, as strong movements in gold prices are likely once the Fed’s intentions on rates become clearer. To date, discussions on rate adjustments have been vague, leaving investors craving more definitive guidance.

Despite the Fed’s recent minutes suggesting a possibility of rate hikes due to persistent inflation, the market sentiment is tilted towards an eventual easing of the Fed’s stance, as indicated by the positive direction of short-term futures contracts on gold.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, a second downward impulse to the 2340.00 level has been formed. Today, a correction to 2358.50 has been executed. A downside movement to 2341.44 is expected, where a consolidation range may form. If the price breaks upwards from this range, a further correction towards 2384.80 could be considered. Conversely, a downward breakout could open the potential for a decline to 2318.80, the first target of the decline wave. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing strictly downwards towards new lows.

On the H1 chart, a decline to 2325.40 has been executed, followed by the formation of a growth structure to 2342.31. A consolidation range has formed around this level, with a correction wave to 2358.50, starting with an upward exit. Today, a decrease to 2342.31 (testing from above) has been executed. The new consolidation range is practically outlined. A downward breakout from this range could lead to another downward impulse to 2318.85. Further development towards 2384.50 is possible if the price breaks upwards, continuing the correction to 2384.85. Afterwards, a decline along the trend to 2318.85 is likely. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line having broken through 50 and continuing its decline to 20.

Summary

Gold prices are rising due to a weaker US dollar and anticipation of key US inflation data. Technical indicators suggest potential corrections and further declines, with significant support and resistance levels to monitor. Investors should closely follow the upcoming data and Fed communications for additional market direction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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