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COT Bonds Charts:Speculator bets led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (168,911 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (123,470 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (123,675 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (80,553 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (55,916 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27,769 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (19,261 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only bond market with declines in speculator bets for the week was the Fed Funds with a decline by -50,153 contracts on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (98 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (89 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (79 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Fed Funds (25 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (24.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (28.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (20.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (10.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (35.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (29.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (78.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (71.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (98.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (68.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (88.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (80.0 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (79 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-23 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-23 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-22.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-0.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-9.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-22.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-50.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (11.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (78.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (42.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (34.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (27.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 550,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 168,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 381,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	53.7	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	58.5	0.4
– Net Position:	550,764	-549,341	-1,423
– Gross Longs:	1,831,307	6,096,953	41,694
– Gross Shorts:	1,280,543	6,646,294	43,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	11.2	87.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.8	-35.0	2.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -186,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -50,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	72.0	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	62.5	2.2
– Net Position:	-186,665	196,735	-10,070
– Gross Longs:	211,045	1,481,802	34,377
– Gross Shorts:	397,710	1,285,067	44,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	73.4	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	26.1	-33.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,029,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 123,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,152,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	76.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	56.6	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,029,110	847,010	182,100
– Gross Longs:	604,289	3,296,807	309,945
– Gross Shorts:	1,633,399	2,449,797	127,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	64.2	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-12.1	2.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,656,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 80,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,736,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	80.9	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	59.8	4.7
– Net Position:	-1,656,257	1,455,628	200,629
– Gross Longs:	545,315	5,581,154	524,097
– Gross Shorts:	2,201,572	4,125,526	323,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	97.7	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	2.7	8.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -914,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 123,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,038,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	72.7	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	58.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-914,437	755,196	159,241
– Gross Longs:	421,807	3,961,978	630,292
– Gross Shorts:	1,336,244	3,206,782	471,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.1	82.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	27.0	11.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -107,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -135,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	72.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	66.1	12.1
– Net Position:	-107,791	144,379	-36,588
– Gross Longs:	297,395	1,597,169	229,945
– Gross Shorts:	405,186	1,452,790	266,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.5	44.3	90.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-12.9	16.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	63.5	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	68.2	8.9
– Net Position:	-14,234	-82,871	97,105
– Gross Longs:	347,170	1,132,220	255,324
– Gross Shorts:	361,404	1,215,091	158,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	0.0	97.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-19.6	19.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -269,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 55,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	78.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	64.8	10.2
– Net Position:	-269,698	253,669	16,029
– Gross Longs:	157,927	1,431,263	202,059
– Gross Shorts:	427,625	1,177,594	186,030
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.2	13.6	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	78.7	-82.7	2.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

31 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (28,611 contracts) with Corn (16,762 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,877 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,011 contracts), Cotton (5,753 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,475 contracts), Coffee (2,749 contracts) and Cocoa (1,304 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-6,975 contracts), Soybeans (-5,373 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-1,853 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

On the downside, Soybeans (3 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Live Cattle (15 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Sugar (18.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (15.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.8 percent)
Sugar (18.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.1 percent)
Coffee (91.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybeans (3.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.0 percent)
Live Cattle (15.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.7 percent)
Cotton (3.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (40.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (39.4 percent)
Wheat (46.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (51.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Corn (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (2 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-15 percent), Soybean Meal (-7 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (-6.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Coffee (-4.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.0 percent)
Soybeans (-5.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-6.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-21.6 percent)
Live Cattle (-14.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.7 percent)
Cotton (-6.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.2 percent)
Cocoa (-2.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.9 percent)
Wheat (2.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -148,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	44.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	32.3	11.6
– Net Position:	-148,534	175,015	-26,481
– Gross Longs:	317,652	644,776	142,421
– Gross Shorts:	466,186	469,761	168,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.0	85.7	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-9.5	-25.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	54.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	60.9	7.0
– Net Position:	47,915	-52,993	5,078
– Gross Longs:	188,930	453,498	63,531
– Gross Shorts:	141,015	506,491	58,453
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	81.2	26.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	6.7	-4.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	37.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	73.9	2.5
– Net Position:	66,907	-70,522	3,615
– Gross Longs:	81,646	73,105	8,571
– Gross Shorts:	14,739	143,627	4,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.1	8.1	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	3.7	4.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -184,266 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	63.8	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	39.4	7.8
– Net Position:	-184,266	198,947	-14,681
– Gross Longs:	108,772	520,608	48,554
– Gross Shorts:	293,038	321,661	63,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.1	97.9	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	6.3	-7.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	53.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	48.5	4.9
– Net Position:	-29,793	26,191	3,602
– Gross Longs:	129,368	288,506	30,211
– Gross Shorts:	159,161	262,315	26,609
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	75.9	28.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	16.4	-5.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	46.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	53.1	5.4
– Net Position:	17,049	-37,614	20,565
– Gross Longs:	118,177	244,382	49,070
– Gross Shorts:	101,128	281,996	28,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	62.8	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	5.2	15.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,622 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	36.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	44.2	13.5
– Net Position:	33,769	-21,555	-12,214
– Gross Longs:	97,052	106,439	26,856
– Gross Shorts:	63,283	127,994	39,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	96.4	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	18.9	-10.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	38.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	31.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-11,785	15,619	-3,834
– Gross Longs:	92,284	91,936	17,159
– Gross Shorts:	104,069	76,317	20,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	80.1	66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-12.9	-10.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	49.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	33.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-37,075	37,777	-702
– Gross Longs:	56,934	112,860	12,938
– Gross Shorts:	94,009	75,083	13,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	96.2	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	6.1	-1.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Potential Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	31.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	58.3	3.2
– Net Position:	30,192	-37,450	7,258
– Gross Longs:	54,055	43,405	11,674
– Gross Shorts:	23,863	80,855	4,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	54.5	74.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	0.2	16.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	35.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	26.0	9.1
– Net Position:	-32,681	35,914	-3,233
– Gross Longs:	139,525	138,475	32,640
– Gross Shorts:	172,206	102,561	35,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	52.3	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-4.9	14.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

31 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Russell 2000 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (11,846 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (10,059 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,885 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (2,895 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,641 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (538 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was the VIX with a drop by -5,880 contracts on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (82 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (74 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (82.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (88.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (52.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (56.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (74.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (65.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (59.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (32.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.4 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (29 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (24 percent) and the Russell-Mini (23 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-11 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (34.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (39.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-4.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-11.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (24.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (22.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (29.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (20.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-10.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -30,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	47.4	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	39.8	6.9
– Net Position:	-30,472	29,737	735
– Gross Longs:	72,728	185,078	27,820
– Gross Shorts:	103,200	155,341	27,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	12.4	89.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-37.3	9.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -81,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	68.7	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	70.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-81,908	-29,163	111,071
– Gross Longs:	302,165	1,442,162	269,396
– Gross Shorts:	384,073	1,471,325	158,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	35.9	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.1	3.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	57.0	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.7	13.8
– Net Position:	8,369	-10,461	2,092
– Gross Longs:	22,190	51,139	14,450
– Gross Shorts:	13,821	61,600	12,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	23.1	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	10.4	-1.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	53.4	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	68.2	10.8
– Net Position:	21,440	-36,200	14,760
– Gross Longs:	65,461	130,557	41,117
– Gross Shorts:	44,021	166,757	26,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	12.8	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.4	-19.4	3.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,127 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	74.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	74.0	4.4
– Net Position:	-15,281	-326	15,607
– Gross Longs:	66,764	311,806	34,344
– Gross Shorts:	82,045	312,132	18,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	20.3	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-22.9	12.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	61.4	24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	51.7	19.7
– Net Position:	-1,853	1,288	565
– Gross Longs:	1,939	8,134	3,180
– Gross Shorts:	3,792	6,846	2,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	35.4	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-10.5	-37.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	89.6	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	83.1	1.4
– Net Position:	-33,678	26,158	7,520
– Gross Longs:	27,770	362,277	13,219
– Gross Shorts:	61,448	336,119	5,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	63.3	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	10.0	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

30 Aug

Week Ahead: US jobs report to spark market frenzy again?

By ForexTime

Economists predict August jobless rate will ease back down to 4.2%
Lowered recession risks should mean slower Fed rate cuts
Sturdier jobs market could boost gold, US stock indexes to new record highs
Repeat of manic volatility from July NFP could deliver massive trading opportunities once more

Remember the market turmoil from the previous US jobs report?

Released back on August 2nd, the July US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% – its highest since 2021!

The spike in the US jobless rate triggered fears that the Federal Reserve may be too late to prevent a recession in the world’s largest economy.

The July unemployment rate figure also officially triggered the “Sahm rule” – a historically accurate predictor of US recessions.

Such heightened recession fears triggered wild swings across global financial markets.

On August 2nd, 2024:

US dollar fell 1.16%: its biggest one-day drop so far in 2024
The S&P 500 index (tracked by FXTM’s US500) fell by 1.84% – its 3rd largest single-day decline so far this year.
Gold only fell by 0.12%, once again exhibiting its virtues as a safe haven asset.

Recall also how the previous US jobs report then triggered the violent unwinding of the Yen carry trade, with the Bank of Japan set to hike interest rates against the Fed that may have to cut US interest rates at a faster clip.

The following Monday, August 5th, the S&P 500 fell 3% on to record its biggest one-day drop since 2022!

Although the markets have since found relative calm, the volatility from not too long ago is sure to frame the minds of investors and traders worldwide during the upcoming week’s events:

Monday, September 2

CNH: China manufacturing PMI
TWN index: Taiwan manufacturing PMI
AUD: Australia inflation
US markets closed

Tuesday, September 3

CHF: Switzerland CPI; 2Q GDP
EU50 index: Eurozone retail sales
RUS2000 index: US ISM manufacturing

Wednesday, September 4

AUD: Australia 2Q GDP; composite and services PMIs (final)
CN50 index: China services and composite PMIs
EU50 index: Eurozone PPI; services and composite PMIs (final)
US400 index: Fed Beige Book; US factory orders
CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision

Thursday, September 5

AUD: Australia trade balance
SG20 index: Singapore retail sales
TWN index: Taiwan CPI and PPI
EUR: Eurozone retail sales; Germany factory orders, construction PMI
USD index: US weekly initial jobless claims; ADP employment

Friday, September 6

EUR: Eurozone 2Q GDP and employment (final); Germany July industrial production and trade balance
CAD: Canada unemployment, composite and services PMIs
US500 index: US nonfarm payrolls

NOTE: The US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report is typically released on the first Friday of each month.

How have major assets reacted historically to the US jobs report?

In the 6 hours following the NFP releases from the past 12 months:

USDInd: The US dollar index has risen by as much as 0.9% (2 Feb 24) or fallen by as much as 0.8% (2 Aug 2024).
XAUUSD: Gold has risen by as much as 1.3% (5 Apr 24) or fallen by as much as 1.3% (8 Dec 23)
S&P 500: This benchmark stock index, tracked by FXTM’s US500 index, has risen by as much as 2% (6 Oct 23) or fallen by as much as 0.7% (5 Apr and 2 Aug 2024)

Ultimately, the markets reactions this time round will be determined by the official numbers released at 12:30 PM GMT on Friday, as they pertain to the size of the Fed rate cut in September.

What are the market forecasts for the August NFP report?

Here’s what economists are forecasting for the August US nonfarm payrolls report that’ll be released on September 6th:

165,000 new jobs added in August (higher than the 114,000 added in July)
Unemployment rate: 4.2% (lower than July’s 4.3% shocker)
Average hourly earnings ticked up by 10 basis points from July’s 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year figures.

As mentioned at the start of this article, much of the focus is set to fall on the unemployment rate, which had reached its highest level (4.3%) since 2021 and fulfilled the “Sahm rule” criteria for a US recession.

Also, this incoming US jobs report has taken on increased significance, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary out of Jackson Hole last Friday, August 23rd:

“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions”.

Chair Powell also said that the “time has come” for the Fed to start cutting interest rates, likely at the next FOMC meeting in mid-September, while stating that the slowdown in US hiring has been “unmistakable”.

In short, this upcoming US jobs report is set to heavily influence the Fed’s decision on how much to cut interest rates at its mid-September FOMC meeting.

Potential scenarios:

If the unemployment rate does ease lower to 4.2%, which allays recession fears while allowing the Fed to proceed with just a 25-basis point rate cut in September, that could see:
– US500 index on course for a new record high at 5678 or higher
– US Dollar index (USDInd) to test resistance around its 21-day simple moving average (SMA)
– Gold on course for a new record high above the existing all-time peak of $2531.75

If the unemployment rate does stay elevated at 4.3% or higher, which once again stokes recession fears while forcing the Fed into a larger 50-basis point rate cut in September, that could see:
– US500 dragged down to the 5,500 psychological level, testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for support.
– US Dollar index (USDInd) plummeting to the 100.00 mark, confirming its recent “death cross” (50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on August 26th)
– Gold dragged briefly into sub-$2500 level to test its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) for support before rebounding back towards its all-time peak of $2531.75.

NOTE: All levels cited above, and the charts below, are published prior to release of another keenly watched event, the US PCE Deflators – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – due 12:30PM today (Friday, August 30th).

US500 index (S&P 500):

S&P 500

USDInd (US dollar index)

USDInd DXY dollar index

XAUUSD (Gold)

XAUUSD gold

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Aug

Wage growth in the Eurozone is slowing. US GDP growth did not help the broad market to close in plus

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.59%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) closed at its opening price. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.23%. The Dow Jones (US30) rose on signs that the economy continues to expand after US second quarter GDP was revised upward. However, the general market’s gains were capped by a drop in Nvidia (NVDA), which came under pressure despite reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.

The US real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 3.0% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024, up from 2.8% in the initial estimate and 1.4% in the first quarter. The upward revision was mainly due to an increase in consumer spending (2.9 % vs. 2.3 % in the previous estimate).

Employment figures in the Federal Reserve Bank’s fresh regional surveys highlighted risks to the US labor market, prompting the Central Bank to cut interest rates. August indexes in each of the five recently released regional manufacturing reports show factory job declines and service sector employment figures are settling down. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting at 100% and a 50 bps rate cut at 34%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.69%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.84% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.23%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.43%.

Wage growth for workers in the Eurozone — a key driver of inflation — will slow sharply in 2025 and 2026, according to Philip Lane, chief economist at the European Central Bank. The second half of this year will still see “abundant wage growth,” Lane said at a conference Thursday in Frankfurt, citing the ECB’s own wage dynamics tracker. But, he said, “catch-up has already peaked,” and growth will be much slower in the next two years. Lane’s comments came on the day of the publication of inflation reports in Germany and Spain. Germany’s harmonized annual inflation rate (HICP) fell to 2% in August from 2.6% in July, the lowest since March 2021. Spain’s harmonized inflation rate also fell to 2.4% in August from 2.9% in July, the lowest since August 2023 and below the estimated 2.5%. The data strengthens the ECB’s case for another rate cut on September 12.

WTI crude oil prices rose nearly 2% to around $76 a barrel on Thursday, mainly due to strong economic data from the US and supply disruptions in Libya. The US economy posted slightly stronger growth in the second quarter, boosting investor confidence. Meanwhile, Libya suspended operations at five key export terminals, cutting oil production by more than half and jeopardizing a significant reduction in global supply.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) is down 0.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) is up 0.53%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) is down 0.33%.

Japan’s government raised its monthly assessment of the economy for the first time in 15 months, citing signs of a recovery in consumption. In its August report on Thursday, the Cabinet said the economy is recovering at a moderate pace, with only parts of the economy stalling. The government raised its estimate of consumer spending for the first time in a year, noting the resilience of spending on goods. The government also revised its estimate of housing construction upward for the first time in two years. The improving economic conditions are a tailwind for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which faces a leadership contest next month. A snap general election could follow soon after the selection of Japan’s new prime minister. So far, more than 10 names have been put forward as potential candidates.

The New Zealand dollar rose to USD 0.626 after data on improving consumer confidence in the country came out. The ANZ Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.2 in August from 87.9 in the previous month, although it remained well below the average level over the past decade. The data came a day after ANZ Bank revealed that business confidence rose to its highest level in a decade, briefly pushing the local currency to $0.629. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already begun its easing cycle this month and outlined further cuts.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,591.96 −0.22 (−0.0039%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,335.05 +243.63 (+0.59%)

DAX (DE40) 18,912.57 +130.28 (+0.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,379.64 +35.79 (+0.43%)

USD Index 101.38 +0.29 (+0.28%)

Important events today:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Aug

AUD/USD Poised for Potential Rise Amid RBA’s Cautious Stance

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair shows signs of potential resurgence as it trades near 0.6802, consolidating within a sideways range at its local peaks towards the end of August. The Australian dollar has appreciated by almost 4% over the month, bolstered by high consumer price index figures that underline persistent inflationary pressures in Australia.

In July, Australian inflation was recorded at 3.5% year-over-year, slightly decelerating from June’s figures but still surpassing expectations of 3.4%. This has supported the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain a tight monetary policy stance. Despite the challenges in effectively curbing high inflation, the RBA has adopted a watchful rather than aggressive approach, which could yield favourable outcomes over a longer horizon.

During the last RBA meeting, discussions were held regarding a potential rate hike, though it was ultimately decided to keep rates unchanged. The RBA’s cautious approach, combined with the earlier general weakness of the US dollar, has provided a solid backdrop for the Australian dollar’s strength.

AUD/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, AUD/USD recently completed an upward wave to 0.6822, followed by a downward impulse to 0.6784. Currently, a corrective movement to 0.6816 is anticipated, potentially establishing the upper limits of the consolidation range. A downward exit from this range could initiate a new decline to 0.6760. A break below this level might signal the start of a new downward trend towards 0.6640, with a potential continuation to 0.6575. The MACD indicator supports this bearish scenario, with its signal line at the highs and trending downward.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a correction to 0.6816. Following this correction, a downward movement to 0.6764 is expected, potentially extending to 0.6757. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, indicates a likely decline to 20, supporting the possibility of continued downward momentum after the correction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Aug

Nvidia’s Forward Guidance Was Light

Source: Michael Ballanger (8/29/24)

Michael Belanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on Nvidia Corp. (NVDA:NASDAQ) after their earnings were announced, and shares two ETFs he has his eyes on.

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA:NASDAQ) reported earnings just after the close, and as expected, they had a blow-out quarter, but the forward guidance was deemed to be a tad “soft.”

The stock is also down over 5% in after-hours trading.

Traders are indeed looking out to September, which has earned a reputation as a “bonus killer.”

While the stock is not exactly crashing, it bodes poorly for the next two trading sessions (month-end book squaring) and for the month of September.

Volatility had a great day as the 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (VIX:INDEXCBOE) was up 11.08% and the VIX itself up 10.89%. I own 6,000 shares at an average of $4.50 so with NVDA sure to drag the other Mag Seven issues lower, it should also give volatility a shot in the arm.

I wrote on August 5 that I was liquidating all of my market hedges, which included all volatility and “short stocks” ETF, but that there was ultimately going to be a re-test of those lows seen on the “carry trade crash” day, and I continued to plan for such a re-rest. I think that re-test started today.

I am going to look at the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ:NASDAQ) November put options tomorrow pre-opening but for those yet to buy the volatility trade (UVIX:US), if it opens under $4.75, it should be bought.

Important Disclosures:

Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Financial News Stock Market News

29 Aug

Nvidia’s good report did not impress investors. The Bank of Japan intends to keep raising rates

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) was down 0.39%, while the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.12%. The US stocks fell on Wednesday as investors awaited Nvidia’s much-anticipated earnings report. All sectors were down, with the tech sector declining as Nvidia shares fell 2.6% in the main session. After the close of trading, Nvidia reported earnings that beat expectations and contained a positive outlook for the current quarter but failed to impress investors, causing the stock price to fall 7% after the bell.

Swap prices reflect the consensus for the Central Bank to cut rates by around 100bps in the three remaining decisions this year. Nevertheless, signs of resilience in US growth, most recently evidenced by a surge in durable goods orders, have raised doubts about the extent of overall rate cuts in the coming easing cycle.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.54%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.16% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.05%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) fell 0.02%.

The ECB left rates unchanged at its last meeting but opened the door for a possible rate cut at its next meeting in September. Since then, data has generally been cooler than expected, leading markets to suggest up to three rate cuts before the end of the year. With the ECB only scheduled to meet three more times, this means a rate cut at each meeting.

WTI crude oil prices fell 1.3% to $74.5 a barrel on Wednesday, extending a 2.4% drop from the previous session, impacted by a smaller-than-expected decline in US crude inventories and ongoing demand concerns in China. Major banks revised their price estimates downward, citing economic concerns in key markets like China and a shift to electric vehicles reducing fuel consumption. In Europe, diesel demand is projected to fall below pre-pandemic levels due to a downturn in production and changes in vehicle fleets. These negative factors are putting downward pressure on prices. The latest EIA report showed a modest 0.846 million barrel decline in US crude oil inventories last week, falling short of the expected 3 million barrel decline.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.22%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.02%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed at its opening price.

Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates as long as inflation moves in line with the bank’s prognoses, signaling the Central Bank’s unchanged stance despite the turmoil in financial markets earlier this month.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,592.20 −33.60 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,091.42 −159.08 (−0.39%)

DAX (DE40) 18,782.29 +100.48 (+0.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,343.85 −1.61 (−0.019%)

USD Index 101.11 +0.56 (+0.55%)

Important events today:

– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 22:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

29 Aug

EUR/USD Stabilises Ahead of Core PCE Inflation Report

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is holding steady at around 1.1134 as markets consolidate USD positions during a lull in significant news. Investors are now keenly awaiting the release of the Core PCE inflation data, a critical metric that the Federal Reserve uses to gauge inflationary pressures and shape its interest rate policy.

The anticipation surrounding this week’s Core PCE release is particularly high due to the lack of impactful data from both the US and the eurozone earlier in the week. While significant shifts in expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory are unlikely, the upcoming report will still be crucial for fine-tuning investor forecasts.

The market has currently primarily priced in a rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting, with the baseline expectation being a 25 basis point reduction. However, a 34.5% probability of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points remains. This possibility is bolstered by recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that the timing for a rate adjustment is appropriate now, echoing sentiments within the monetary policy community.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is forming a structure indicating an initial decline towards 1.1090. Following this decline, a corrective movement to 1.1150 is anticipated. Once this correction concludes, a further decline to 1.1030 is expected, potentially continuing to 1.0960. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero but trending sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has already declined to 1.1104. A corrective phase towards 1.1150 may follow, testing it from below before resuming the downward trajectory towards 1.1090. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, suggests an impending drop to 20, reinforcing the likelihood of continued downward movement.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Aug

Australia’s inflation is falling at a slower pace than RBA expected. ECB may cut rates at the next two meetings

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 0.02%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was up 0.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.16%.

The Fed will almost certainly cut rates on September 18, which Powell signaled in Jackson Hole and which other officials have since effectively confirmed. The only questions now are whether the easing cycle will start at 25- or 50-basis points and how much policy easing will occur in the coming months. At Jackson Hole, Powell made essentially two turns. The first, as expected, was his clear signal of an imminent rate cut. The second, perhaps less expected, was his equally clear emphasis that unemployment, not inflation, is now the number one determinant of upcoming policy decisions.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.32%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.21%. Germany’s DAX Index held early gains and closed 0.3% higher at 18,682 on Tuesday, resuming its strong momentum and recovering from a slight dip in the previous session. This was despite the GfK Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly falling to its lowest level since May, underscoring the weak sentiment in the German economy after yesterday’s poor Ifo results.

The European Central Bank may gradually cut interest rates if inflation continues to fall, but more data is needed to decide on a September cut, Dutch policymaker Klaas Knot said Tuesday. With just two weeks to go until the ECB’s next meeting, a growing number of policymakers favor another rate cut in September, and many say the real debate is over whether another cut in October should follow the move.

Libya has announced a complete shutdown of its oil fields amid political conflict and ongoing regional tensions. The cessation of production and exports from Libya, one of the largest oil producers, has heightened fears of tightening global supply. Potentially, this could provide fuel for higher oil prices. WTI crude prices rose to $76 a barrel on Wednesday after losing more than 2% in the previous session, led by a decline in US oil inventories. API data showed a 3.4 million barrel decline in inventories for the week ended August 23, beating market expectations for a 3.0 million barrel decline.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.47%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.43%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.16%.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.68, hitting its highest level this year, as better-than-expected inflation data for the month reinforced hawkish sentiment towards the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. The data showed Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index came in at 3.5% for the year, slowing from June’s 3.8% rise but above estimates of 3.4%. Minutes from the RBA’s last meeting showed that policymakers considered raising interest rates to curb inflation but ultimately decided to stay on hold. RBA head Michele Bullock also recently said that despite signs of weakening inflation, it was “premature” to consider cutting rates.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,625.80 +8.96 (+0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,250.50 +9.98 (+0.024%)

DAX (DE40) 18,681.81 +64.79 (+0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,345.46 +17.68 (+0.21%)

USD Index 100.76 +0.20 (+0.20%)

Important events today:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Financial News – Page 108

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Coffee

Lean Hogs & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Potential Trend Change)

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nasdaq

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Remember the market turmoil from the previous US jobs report?

The spike in the US jobless rate triggered fears that the Federal Reserve may be too late to prevent a recession in the world’s largest economy.

The following Monday, August 5th, the S&P 500 fell 3% on to record its biggest one-day drop since 2022!

How have major assets reacted historically to the US jobs report?

Ultimately, the markets reactions this time round will be determined by the official numbers released at 12:30 PM GMT on Friday, as they pertain to the size of the Fed rate cut in September.

What are the market forecasts for the August NFP report?

“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions”.

Potential scenarios:

US500 index (S&P 500):

USDInd (US dollar index)

XAUUSD (Gold)