Archive for Financial News – Page 107

06 Sep

Week Ahead: USDInd faces triple risk cocktail

By ForexTime

  • USDInd ↓ 5% from 2024 high
  • US Presidential debate, CPI & ECB in focus
  • Euro accounts for almost 60% of USDInd
  • Over past year US CPI triggered moves of ↑ 0.7% & ↓ 0.6%
  • First levels of interest  – 101.94  & 100.52

As the countdown gets closer to the key US jobs report later today (Friday, September 6), mindful investors are keeping tabs on what’s to come in the week ahead.

A combination of economic and political forces could spell fresh volatility for global markets:

Monday, 9th Sept  

  • CN50: China PPI, CPI
  • JP225: Japan GDP
  • TWN: Taiwan trade
  • US500: US wholesale inventories
  • NAS100: Apple iPhone 16 product launch

Tuesday, 10th Sept  

  • AU200: Australia consumer confidence
  • CN50: China trade
  • GER40: Germany CPI
  • UK100: UK jobless claims, unemployment
  • USDInd: Trump vs Harris Presidential debate

Wednesday 11th Sept

  • UK100: UK industrial production
  • USDInd: US August CPI report

Thursday, 12th Sept

  • JP225: Japan PPI
  • NZD: New Zealand food prices
  • US500: US initial jobless claims, PPI
  • USDInd: ECB rate decision

Friday, 13th Sept

  • EU50: Eurozone industrial production
  • JP225: Japan industrial production
  • NZD: New Zealand PMI
  • US500: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Our focus is on FXTM’s USDInd which could be rocked by three heavy-hitting events.

Looking at the charts, the dollar has shed over 5% from its 2024 high due to expectations around lower US interest rates. Fears of a US recession have also empowered bears with prices trading near a yearly low.

DXY W2

Note: FXTM’s USDInd tracks the US Dollar Index.  This measures how the dollar performs against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

With the US jobs report just a few hours away, the USDInd may end this week with a bang!

Still, more volatility could be on the cards next week and here are 3 reasons why:

 

    1) Trump vs Harris: US Presidential debate

All eyes will be on the US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris scheduled for Tuesday, September 10th.

Both are expected to debate key economic issues, geopolitics and policies among other topics. It is worth noting that the US election is less than two months away with national polls showing Kamala Harris leading narrowly. This development could add more spice to the upcoming debate which could impact the overall election outcome.

  • Whatever the outcome of this major political event, it could trigger fresh volatility for the dollar and global markets.

    2) US August CPI report

The August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, September 11th may heavily influence bets around how aggressively the Fed cuts rates this month and onwards.

Note: This is the final inflation report before the Fed’s September 17 – 18 policy meeting!

Markets are forecasting CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month in August and cool to 2.6% year-over-year from the 2.9% prior.  Regarding the core print, this is forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month while remaining at 3.2% year-on-year. Markets will be looking for more signs of cooling price pressures which may reinforce bets around lower US rates.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US CPI report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.7% or declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

  • The USDInd could fall on more signs of cooling price pressures.
  • Should the US CPI report print higher than expected, this could push the USDInd higher.

 

    3) ECB rate decision

The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday, September 12th.

So, much focus will be on the GDP and inflation forecasts of the staff economists along with President Lagarde’s press conference for fresh insight. With annual inflation in the Eurozone falling to 2.2% in August from 2.6% in the previous month, this supported bets around lower ECB rates.

Note: The Euro accounts for almost 60% of the USDInd weighting. A weaker euro tends to push the index higher and vice versa.

As of writing, traders have fully priced in a 25-basis point ECB cut next week with the odds of another cut by October currently at 45%.

  • The USDInd could push higher if the ECB cuts rates and signals more down the road.
  • Should the central bank sound less dovish than expected on future cuts, this could drag the USDInd lower as the Euro strengthens.

Golden nugget: Over the past 12 months, the ECB rate decision has sparked upside moves as much as 0.4% or declines of 0.3% in the 6 hours post-release.

 

    4) Technical forces

Prices remain under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flirting near oversold territory.

  • A sold breakout above 101.94 may signal a move towards 103.27.
  • Should prices slip below 100.52, bears may be encouraged to target 99.60 and potentially lower.

DXY

*Note this report was published before the key US jobs report on Friday.*

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
06 Sep

Gold rallies as market bets on rapid Fed monetary easing

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold has returned to growth. On Friday, a troy ounce of the precious metal was priced at 2517 USD. The price has stabilised as the market awaits the release of August’s crucial US employment report. The data could prompt a revision of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, which is particularly important given the short time left before the Fed meets.

Lower interest rates could reduce the cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset. Given the weak employment market signals, the market believes the Fed will be forced to act more decisively.

The latest statistics showed that private employers in the US hired at the slowest pace in 3.5 years in August. This follows a decline in the number of job vacancies. In addition, manufacturing activity in the economy declined. All this appears to be a negative factor indicating the state of the US economy and fuelling expectations of a 50-basis points rate cut in September. Investors are currently pricing in a 41% probability of such a scenario, which is relatively high. Considering fundamental factors, it is reasonable to assume that gold prices will continue to rise.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD has received support at 2472.00. Currently, the structure of a growth wave towards 2513.62 is being formed. Today, the market is creating a consolidation range around this level. An upside breakout will open the potential for growth towards 2555.50. A break above the 2522.00 level may signal the development of a further growth wave. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero and sloping upwards.

On the H1 chart of XAUUSD, the market has completed a growth wave to 2513.62. Currently, the range is extended upwards to the level of 2523.20 and downwards to the level of 2504.00. In the case of a downward breakout, a decline to 2491.55 may occur. Conversely, an upward breakout could continue the trend to 2555.50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is near the level of 80 and is preparing to decline to 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
05 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on The Bank of Canada cut the rate by 0.25%. Oil continues to fall in price

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 0.09%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell 0.16% and hit a 2-week low. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.30% and hit a 3-week low. Stocks on Wednesday initially recovered from early losses and headed higher after the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2-week low after the July JOLTS report on US job openings fell more than expected to a 3-year low. The weak JOLTS report boosted hopes that the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 bps at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting. However, stocks gave up their gains after the release of the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon, which raised fears of a recessionary economy. The Fed’s Beige Book said the number of Fed districts reporting low or declining activity rose to nine from five in the previous period. Employers were more selective in hiring and less inclined to expand, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) decided on a 25 bps rate cut, which was widely expected, citing growing economic concerns amid inflation approaching the Central Bank’s 2% target. Preliminary data points to downside risks to third-quarter growth in the Bank’s July estimates, while the labor market remains stagnant, with unemployment holding at 6.4%, hinting at further rate cuts in upcoming meetings. However, amid the lack of surprises, Macklem noted that sustained price pressures in the housing and services sectors continue to support high inflation, which is seen as hawkish for the Bank of Canada going forward.

Equity markets in Europe were down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.83%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.98%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.58% and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.35%.

Factory orders in Germany rose 2.9% in July 2024 from the previous month, beating market prognoses, which had expected a 1.5% fall, following an upwardly revised 4.6% rise in the previous month. It was the second consecutive month of growth, driven by strong orders for airplanes, ships, and trains (86.5%). Orders for electrical equipment also grew strongly (18.6%).

Switzerland’s unemployment rate rose to a seasonally unadjusted 2.4% in August 2024, up from 2.3% in the previous four months. The number of unemployed rose by 3,638 from a month earlier to a six-month high of 111,354.

WTI crude oil prices were trading near $69.6 a barrel on Thursday, remaining near the lowest level in eight months after a recent strong sell-off. Recent pressure on oil prices has been driven by oversupply concerns, with OPEC planning to increase production and a potential deal between Libya’s rival governments to restart oil production. Meanwhile, API data showed a significant drop of 7.4 million barrels in US crude inventories last week, much larger than the expected 0.9 million barrel decline.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 4.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.70%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.10%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.88%.

Thailand’s annual inflation rate for August 2024 fell to a fourth-month low of 0.35% from 0.83% in the previous month and came in below market expectations of 0.4%, remaining outside the Central Bank’s target range of 1–3%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy prices, rose to 0.62% in August from the previous reading of 0.52%, exceeding market expectations of 0.55%.

Governor Michele Bullock said in a statement that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aims to balance lowering inflation in a reasonable time frame and preserve as much of the gains in the labor market as possible. She added that the country’s inflation rate has fallen significantly since its peak but remains above the midpoint of the 2–3% target, with core inflation, measured by a trimmed average, at 3.9% in June. It is expected to return to the target range by the end of next year and approach the median in 2026.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the official money rate last month, the first move since tightening policy in the post-pandemic period in an attempt to curb inflation. Investors are confident the Central Bank will continue easing policy at its next meeting in October, with a 37% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,520.07 −8.86 (−0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,974.97 +38.04 (+0.093%)

DAX (DE40) 18,591.85 −155.26 (−0.83%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,269.60 −28.86 (−0.35%)

USD Index 101.31 −0.51 (−0.50%)

News feed for: 2024.09.05

  • Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
05 Sep

EUR/USD Maintains Neutral Stance Ahead of US Employment Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair remained stable around 1.1077 on Thursday morning, following steady growth in the previous session but still confined within a sideways channel. Investors are holding back and conserving their energy in anticipation of crucial employment data from the United States, which begins with today’s ADP private sector jobs report. Although the ADP report does not directly correlate with Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, it provides a general sense of market sentiment.

Additionally, the market will closely watch today’s weekly unemployment claims data release, especially given the Federal Reserve’s focused attention on employment indicators. These releases are expected to heighten EUR/USD volatility as the day progresses.

The spotlight will soon shift to Friday’s key employment metrics, including non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings for August. These indicators are pivotal ahead of the September Fed meeting. Robust employment data may support a minimal 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed, whereas weaker labour market figures could heighten the possibility of a 50 basis point reduction.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The pair is currently consolidating around the 1.1065 level. The market may test up to 1.1107 today, which is seen as a correction phase in the context of a broader decline. Following this potential rise, a further decline to 1.1060 is anticipated. A break below this level could signal a continuation of the downtrend, potentially reaching 1.1016. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD continues to consolidate around 1.1065. A slight dip to 1.1056 might occur, followed by an extension towards 1.1107 as part of a corrective pattern. Once this correction phase is completed, the downward trend is expected to resume. The Stochastic oscillator, currently just above 20, suggests a potential rise to 80, indicating room for short-term upward movement before continuing thebroader bearish trend.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
04 Sep

USDCAD: Tests resistance ahead of BoC decision

By ForexTime

  • USDCAD ended August ↓ 2.3%
  • BoC decision + US jobs report = volatility?
  • Traders fully priced in 25 bp cut by BoC this week
  • Bloomberg FX model: 74% – (1.3400 – 1.3675)
  • Key technical levels –  1.3550 & 1.3600

After tumbling over 2% in August, the USDCAD has kicked off the new month on a bullish note.

Prices jumped over 60 pips on Tuesday, testing key resistance at 1.3550 ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday.

USDCAD

The USDCAD’s recent upside could be based around a weaker Canadian Dollar. It is worth noting that the CAD has slipped against most G10 currencies this week thanks to lower oil prices and expectations around a BoC rate cut.

Looking at the charts, prices remain under pressure on the weekly charts with the 100 and 50-week SMA acting as key levels of resistance.

USDCAD

Nevertheless, a significant move may be on the horizon and here are 3 reasons why…

    1) Bank of Canada rate decision

On Wednesday, September 4th, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision.

Weak economic data from Canada have boosted expectations around the BoC cutting interest rates for the third time this year.

Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis point BoC cut by September, another cut by October and one final cut by December!

Note: The latest jobs data from Canada will be published on Friday, September 6th. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 6.5% from 6.4% in the previous month while net change in employment is seen rising to 26.5k after declining by 2.8k in June.

  • Should the BoC move ahead with a rate cut in September and signal further cuts down the road, this could push the USDCAD higher.
  • An outcome where the central bank sounds less dovish than expected could strengthen the Canadian Dollar, pulling the USDCAD lower as a result.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the BoC rate decision has triggered upside moves as much as 0.35% of declines of 0.1% in a 6-hour window post-release.   

 

    2) Key US jobs report

As highlighted in our week ahead report, the major event this week is the US jobs data on Friday.

Given how investors may use this as a guide to how quick or slow the Fed will cut rates from September onwards, this data could rock global financial markets.

The US economy is expected to have created 165k new jobs in August with the unemployment rate ticking lower to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rising to 3.7% year-on-year compared to 3.6% in the previous month.

  • If the unemployment rate ticks lower to 4.2% and cools recession fears, this may end up boosting the USD – pushing the USDCAD higher.
  • A scenario where the unemployment rate remains at 4.3% or even higher could fuel recession fears – boosting bets of a 50 bp cut. Given how this is likely to weaken the USD, the USDCAD could end up tumbling.

Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis point Fed cut by September with a 34% probability of a 50 bp move.

Golden nugget: Over the past 12 months, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves as much as 0.4% of declines of 0.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

    3) Technical forces

USDCAD bulls could be handed more power if prices secure a solid daily close above 1.3550. Still, lagging indicators seem to be favour bears with prices still trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

  • A solid breakout above 1.3550 may inspire an incline toward 1.3600 and 1.3677.
  • Should 1.3550 prove to be reliable resistance, this could see prices decline toward 1.3450 and 1.3400.

USDCAD2

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 75% chance that USDCAD will trade within the 1.3400 – 1.3675 range over the next one-week period.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
04 Sep

Oil fell to the lowest level of the year. Stock indices are under pressure from weak economic data

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.51%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell 2.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative 3.26%. Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 Index (US500) hitting a 2-week low and the Nasdaq 100 Index hitting a 2-week low. Tuesday’s drop in chip company stocks had a negative impact on the overall market. Stocks were also hurt by Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected manufacturing activity and construction spending reports from the ISM.

The ISM manufacturing index for August rose by 0.4 to 47.2, weaker than expectations of 47.5. The ISM Services Price Sub-Index for August unexpectedly rose by 1.1 to 54.0 versus expectations of a decline to 52.0, which was hawkish for Fed policy. US construction spending for July unexpectedly fell by 0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations for a 0.1% m/m rise and the biggest decline in a year. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting at 100% and a 50 bps rate cut at that meeting at 38%.

Boeing (BA) shares are down more than 7% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock with a $119 price target. Visa (V) shares closed higher by more than 1% after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock to “improved” from “neutral” with a $325 price target.

Canada’s GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2024, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2023. The figure beat the previous quarter’s revised 1.8% growth and expectations of 1.6% growth, easing fears of stagnation and reducing the likelihood of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada will hold a monetary policy meeting today. Canadian overnight index swaps (OIS) indicate that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates by 0.25% to 4.25% today, and markets now expect two more rate cuts this year after September. There is a 15% chance of a more substantial 50 bps rate cut. A rate cut could hurt the Canadian currency against other currencies.

Equity markets in Europe were declining yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.97%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.93%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.02%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.78%.

The S&P Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for August was revised upward by 0.2 to 45.8 from the previously reported 45.6. German retail sales for May fell by 1.1% year over year, weaker than expectations of 0.7% year over year. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the September 12 meeting to 99%.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 4% below $71/bbl on Tuesday, the lowest since early January, as weak demand amplified the impact of relatively ample supply. New data from China added to concerns that economic growth in one of the world’s biggest oil consumers is unlikely to recover this year, with key indicators of domestic factory demand falling more than expected in August. In the US, data from the EIA showed US oil consumption in June fell to its lowest seasonal level since 2020. Meanwhile, OPEC signaled it would follow earlier signals to increase OPEC+ production in the fourth quarter, offsetting lower production from Libya.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.04%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.23% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.08%.

Australia’s economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2024, holding steady in the third quarter and falling short of market forecasts of 0.3%. This was the 11th period of quarterly growth, but the pace remained the slowest in the past five quarters.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,528.93 −119.47 (−2.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,936.93 −626.15 (−1.51%)

DAX (DE40) 18,747.11 −183.74 (−0.97%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,298.46 −65.38 (−0.78%)

USD index 101.75 +0.10 (+0.10%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
04 Sep

USD/JPY Sees Modest Rise Amid Anticipation of BoJ Policy Shift

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has slightly increased, rising to 145.95 on Wednesday morning. This movement marks a rebound from two-week lows, though it is still early to suggest a significant reversal in the trend due to the ongoing economic climate.

Market participants are cautious as they await crucial US employment market data for August, which is due later this week. These figures will likely substantially impact the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decisions.

On the Japanese front, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its current policy stance but has signalled potential adjustments should economic projections align with actual outcomes. This cautious but responsive approach, including the possibility of a December interest rate hike, reflects the BoJ’s commitment to stability in the face of economic indicators.

Recent Japanese economic data has shown a slight improvement, with the manufacturing PMI inching up to 49.8 from 49.5, nearly reaching the critical threshold of 50.0 that differentiates contraction from expansion. This positive development suggests a potential stabilisation in the manufacturing sector, which could influence the USD/JPY forecast as market participants assess the implications for monetary policy and economic growth in Japan.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The H4 chart indicates a recent corrective move up to 147.20, followed by a downward wave targeting 144.11. Should this level be reached, a corrective movement to 145.66 could occur, testing it from below. A further decline to 144.11 is conceivable, with a potential continuation to 141.80 and down to 137.77. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with the signal line positioned above zero but trending downward sharply.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY executed a downward impulse to 145.66 and has since been consolidating around this level. A break below the consolidation range could initiate the continuation of the downward trend towards 144.11. After reaching this target, a retest of 145.66 may be anticipated. This bearish scenario aligns with the Stochastic oscillator’s readings, where the signal line is just above 50 but indicates a downward movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
03 Sep

Natural gas rises amid rising demand. The manufacturing sector in Australia and China shows a decline

By JustMarkets

The American stock market did not trade yesterday due to the bank holiday.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamics. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.20%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.06%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.15%.

Quotes of ASML and SAP added almost 1% each. Meanwhile, Volkswagen rebounded from early losses to close 1.4% higher, sharply outperforming losses at other automakers after announcing new cost-cutting measures and that it did not rule out closing plants in Germany. On the data side, the Eurozone and domestic manufacturing PMIs for August were revised slightly higher from preliminary estimates but still pointed to a continued contraction in factory activity.

WTI crude oil prices are holding below $74 a barrel on Tuesday after strong selling pressure in recent sessions, weakened by rising expectations of increased supply. OPEC recently announced plans to increase production, with the eight OPEC+ members expected to increase output by 180,000 bpd.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices rose to $2.2 per MMBtu amid new signs of robust demand for gas requiring cooling. The Midwest experienced record-high temperatures over the weekend, and more than 60 million people received heat warnings, boosting demand for air conditioning. Meanwhile, investors continued to assess domestic gas supplies this year after a slowdown in LNG exports.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 1.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.65%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.22%.

The Australian dollar fell as low as $0.675, hitting a more than one-week low, as lower iron ore and other commodity prices pressured the currency as the country’s economy relies heavily on commodity exports. Investors also digested data that government spending was the main driver of economic growth last quarter, indicating potential weakness in the economy. In addition, Australia’s manufacturing sector continued to contract in August as high borrowing costs and weak demand weighed on new orders.

The offshore yuan depreciated to 7.12 per dollar, extending its fall from the previous session, as mixed PMI data in China fueled expectations of further stimulus measures. With traders now firmly expecting a Fed rate cut in September, they believe this could give the People’s Bank of China the opportunity to ease monetary policy without triggering capital outflows. The latest official data showed that Chinese manufacturing activity contracted sharply in August, the sharpest decline since February, while service sector activity rose slightly from an eight-month low.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,648.40 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,563.08 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 18,930.85 +23.93 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,363.84 −12.79 (−0.15%)

USD Index 101.64 −0.05 (−0.05%)

Important events today:
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland GDP (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
03 Sep

Brent Crude Under Pressure Amid Supply Expansion Concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices have experienced significant selling pressure recently, dipping to 77.21 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Although there has been a slight recovery from earlier lows, the overall market sentiment remains bearish.

Investors are reacting to recent data from OPEC, which indicates that 8 OPEC+ members plan to increase their production by 180,000 barrels per day. This anticipated rise in supply casts a shadow over the oil market, particularly as it coincides with weakening demand indicators from major economies.

A report from the Department of Energy in the US highlighted a drop in oil consumption in June to levels not seen since the summer of 2020, considering seasonal adjustments. This downturn in demand is mirrored by troubling economic data from China, where factory activity has reportedly reached a six-month low. Moreover, the decline in selling prices and a reduction in new orders from Chinese manufacturing sectors add to the pessimism surrounding future demand.

However, some support for oil prices stems from production issues in Libya, where the largest local oilfield has halted production due to state-imposed force majeure. This disruption could pose supply challenges for major oil consumers and as highlighted in commodities analysis, temporarily cushion the impact of broader negative trends.

Brent technical analysis

The H4 chart shows a previous growth impulse peaking at 81.85, followed by a correction down to 75.20, forming a broad consolidation range at this lower level. There is an expectation for a growth move towards 79.00 today. If this level is breached upward, it may signal the continuation of the growth wave to 82.87. This bullish scenario is tentatively supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero but shows signs of an upward trajectory.

On the H1 chart, Brent has formed a corrective structure down to 76.02 and is currently developing a growth structure towards 77.55. A successful breach of this level could open the way for further growth to 79.00, potentially continuing to 82.87. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned around 50 and pointing upwards, indicating potential for further price increases.

 

Overall, while the short-term technical indicators suggest a possible recovery in Brent prices, the broader market context remains challenging due to increased supply forecasts and weak demand signals from vital global markets.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
31 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (3,192 contracts) with Silver (2,862 contracts), Platinum (907 contracts), Palladium (405 contracts) and Steel (279 contracts) also registering positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was Copper with a decrease by -3,129 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (98.7 percent)
Silver (88.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (84.1 percent)
Copper (49.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.1 percent)
Platinum (60.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.6 percent)
Palladium (15.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.1 percent)
Steel (77.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.6 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (7 percent) and Gold (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-39 percent) and Platinum (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (3.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (15.1 percent)
Silver (-10.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.9 percent)
Copper (-38.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-33.3 percent)
Platinum (-16.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.9 percent)
Palladium (-10.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.9 percent)
Steel (7.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 294,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 291,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.816.310.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.478.15.1
– Net Position:294,445-322,31927,874
– Gross Longs:343,33085,10254,689
– Gross Shorts:48,885407,42126,815
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.071.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.9-5.013.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 52,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.425.721.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.676.77.6
– Net Position:52,186-72,14019,954
– Gross Longs:65,71536,44430,674
– Gross Shorts:13,529108,58410,720
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.3 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.014.167.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.812.9-17.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.532.99.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.545.05.3
– Net Position:17,145-26,0028,857
– Gross Longs:89,06370,51820,271
– Gross Shorts:71,91896,52011,414
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.248.071.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.937.8-12.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.722.312.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.351.14.4
– Net Position:15,733-22,1576,424
– Gross Longs:42,95117,2049,838
– Gross Shorts:27,21839,3613,414
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.032.572.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.618.5-12.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.557.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.611.06.5
– Net Position:-11,86011,921-61
– Gross Longs:7,07414,7591,623
– Gross Shorts:18,9342,8381,684
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.189.030.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.312.7-18.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.876.40.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.556.50.9
– Net Position:-4,8924,942-50
– Gross Longs:3,17718,955180
– Gross Shorts:8,06914,013230
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.723.426.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.4-7.77.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
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