Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 103

Chinese indices rise on PBoC stimulus. In Australia, inflationary pressures are easing

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.20%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.25%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.56%.

Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Bowman, the only dissenter to last week’s 50 bps cut in the Fed Funds rate, put some pressure on stocks on Tuesday when she said the Fed should cut interest rates at a “moderate” pace as inflation risks persist and the labor market is not showing much weakening. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for September unexpectedly fell by 6.9 to 98.7 against expectations for a rise to 104.0. The Richmond Fed survey for September unexpectedly fell 2 to a 4–1/3 year low of 21, weaker than expectations of a rise to 12. Markets await inflation news on Friday when the core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, is released. Consensus expects the PCE Price Index to rise 0.2% m/m in August and increase 2.7% y/y from 2.6% y/y in July.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.80%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.28% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.33%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.28%. Weak economic data reinforced expectations that the ECB would ease monetary policy to support the struggling European economy. The latest data showed that business morale in Germany fell more than expected to an 8-month low.

Sweden’s Riksbank cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% at its September 2024 meeting, following a similar move in August and in line with market expectations. In addition, policymakers have signaled further rate cuts at the two remaining monetary policy meetings this year if the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, with one of those meetings potentially cutting the rate by 50 basis points.

WTI crude oil prices hovered near $71.4 a barrel on Wednesday, trying to extend the previous session’s gains as markets continued to assess China’s economic intervention. On Tuesday, China’s central bank announced the largest economic stimulus in four years and growth targets, improving the outlook for demand from the world’s top oil importer. At the same time, fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East are growing as risks of a wider conflict escalate.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.08%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 6.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 4.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.28%. Chinese indices rose for a second day and held firmly at their highest level in four months as all sectors made further strong gains. Aggressive stimulus measures adopted by China’s Central Bank on Tuesday to support the ailing economy continued to boost sentiment.

The Australian dollar climbed to $0.69, ending at its highest level since February 2023, as investors reacted to the latest inflation report. The data showed Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index fell to a three-year low of 2.7% in August, back within the Central Bank’s target range of 2–3%, although the drop was mainly due to temporary government energy rebates. The Australian dollar also rose thanks to China’s latest stimulus package, which could support demand in Australia’s biggest export market.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,732.93 +14.36 (+0.25%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,208.22 +83.57 (+0.20%)

DAX (DE40) 18,996.63 +149.84 (+0.80%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,282.76 +23.05 (+0.28%)

USD Index 100.28 -0.19 (-0.19%)

News feed for: 2024.09.25

Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

24 Sep

Markets rally on China stimulus cheer

By ForexTime

FXTM Asian stock indices rally

CN50 ↑ 6% on “risk-on” mood

Oil benchmarks soar ↑ +2%

AUDUSD hits fresh 2024 highs

Bloomberg FX model – 74% – (0.6757 – 0.6933)

China has hijacked the headlines after its central bank unleashed a wave of stimulus measures to revive economic growth.

In a move welcomed by investors on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut benchmark interest rates while unveiling measures to restore market confidence and ailing property sector.

This development triggered a “risk-on” mood across Asia during early trading, propelling FXTM’s Asian stock indices higher.

CN50: +6.2%

CHINAH: +5.0%

HK50: +4.3%

China’s raft of stimulus measures comes less than one week after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in 4 years. With the world’s second largest economy on a mission to achieve its 5% annual growth target, this could boost overall market sentiment.

In fact, European markets rallied this morning while US equity futures are pointing to a positive open.

EU50: 1.2%

China will remain the key talking point this week, but it will be wise to keep a close eye on other assets linked to its economy.

For instance, oil benchmarks.

Oil prices jumped over 2% this morning following the positive developments with China.

BRENT: +2.5%

Crude: +2.3%

Over the past few months, the global commodity has been pressured by concerns over China’s economy and prospects of increased supplies from OPEC+. But this latest news regarding China’s stimulus could boost confidence in the country’s economic outlook, supporting oil as a result.

Note: China is one of the largest energy consumers in the world.

Oil markets could see more volatility today depending on how markets react to OPEC’s annual world oil outlook and ongoing geopolitical developments.

Looking at the technicals, Brent is pushing higher on the daily charts. A solid breakout above $75 may encourage an incline toward $76.90 – where the 50-day SMA resides.

Brent

In the FX space, keep an eye on the Australian Dollar.

The Aussie has appreciated against most G10 currencies since the start of September.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leaving interest rates unchanged and still sounding hawkish, this could keep the AUD supported.

Traders are currently pricing in a 55% probability of a 25-basis point RBA cut by the end of 2024.

It is worth keeping in mind that the recent developments in China could influence the Aussie – considering how China is Australia’s biggest trading partner.

Note: Australia August CPI will be published on Wednesday.

Looking at the charts, the AUDUSD hit a fresh 2024 high today with prices trading out of its weekly range.

Should the upside momentum hold, this may push prices toward the 200-week SMA at 0.6960.

A move back under 0.6800 could encourage a decline toward 0.6650.

Bloomberg FX model – 74% probability AUDUSD trades between 0.6757 – 0.6933 over next one week period

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

24 Sep

AUD/USD Reaches Yearly High Amid Positive Stimulus News from China

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair tested the 0.6860 mark on Tuesday, reaching its highest point in 2024, bolstered by supportive economic news from China. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced stimulus measures to boost the Chinese economy. These measures positively influence the Australian dollar due to the close economic ties between Australia and China.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain its interest rate, reflecting mixed sentiment among market participants regarding the future rate trajectory. According to a recent Reuters poll of 44 economists, only four anticipate a rate cut by year-end. However, investors assign a 60% probability of a rate reduction in December.

So far, the RBA has maintained a conservative stance regarding inflation and economic activity, believing that the economy can self-adjust without intervention. Nonetheless, the global trend towards rate cuts initiated by central banks, such as the Fed and the ECB, may influence the RBA’s perspective in the future.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The AUD/USD has completed the fifth wave of growth, reaching a target of 0.6864. Currently, a potential initial wave of decline to 0.6740 is being considered. After reaching this level, a corrective move to 0.6803 could occur, marking the upper limits of a new consolidation range. A downward exit from this range might lead to further declines towards 0.6740, with a potential continuation down to 0.6677 and possibly extending to 0.6616. The MACD indicator, currently at its peak, suggests an impending decline, supporting this bearish outlook.

On the H1 chart, the AUD/USD is forming a downward structure targeting 0.6805. Subsequently, a narrow consolidation range may develop, with a potential downward breakout leading to further declines towards 0.6744. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line currently above 80 but poised to move downward sharply.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Sep

China announced a broad stimulus for the economy. The RBA kept the rate at 4.35%

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) was up 0.15%, while the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.14%. Optimism that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing for the economy is supporting stock prices. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said yesterday that they support additional Fed rate cuts this year.

Intel (INTC) closed higher by more than 3% following a Bloomberg report that Apollo Global Management has offered to make a multi-billion dollar investment in Intel. Tesla (TSLA) rose more than 4% after Barclays said it expects the company’s third-quarter deliveries to exceed consensus estimates, which could further boost the stock.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.68%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.10% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) Index gained 0.38%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.36%. The S&P Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for September fell by 1.0 to 44.8, weaker than expectations of 45.7 and the sharpest rate of contraction in 9 months. The Eurozone Composite PMI for September fell by 2.1 to 48.9, weaker than expectations of 50.5 and the sharpest rate of contraction in 8 months. Investors are now betting on an additional ECB rate cut of around 44 basis points this year, with a 40% chance of a rate cut in October.

WTI crude oil prices climbed above $71 a barrel on Tuesday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses as the prospect of supply disruptions outweighed concerns about sluggish demand. Rising tensions in the Middle East have heightened fears of a wider conflict in the key oil-producing region after Israeli strikes on Lebanon on Monday. Investors are also watching the risk of a possible hurricane on the US Gulf Coast, which could impact oil production later this week. In addition, China announced a series of stimulus measures to support its economy, easing some concerns about sluggish demand from the world’s top oil consumer.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 1.53%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.57%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.69%.

The ASX 200 Index (AU200) fell by 0.13%, extending the previous session’s losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectedly left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% amid continued high core inflation and lingering uncertainty over the overall outlook. The RBA also stated that the latest projections suggest that inflation will take some time to steadily return to the target range, indicating that it may need to keep higher rates for longer.

The offshore yuan strengthened to 7.03 per dollar, hitting a new sixteen-month high after a brief decline earlier in the session, helped by significant stimulus measures announced by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The Central Bank unveiled a number of initiatives, including a 50bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 20bp cut in the seven-day reverse repo rate and a 30bp cut in the medium-term lending rate. In addition, the benchmark lending rates are expected to be cut by 20–25 bps after holding them at the September fixing level. The PBOC also plans to cut existing mortgage rates by about 50 basis points, potentially reducing households’ interest payments by about ¥150 billion.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,718.57 +16.02 (+0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,124.65 +61.29 (+0.15%)

DAX (DE40) 18,846.79 +61.29 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,259.71 +29.72 (+0.36%)

USD Index 100.90 +0.05 (+0.05%)

News feed for: 2024.09.24

Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 19:55 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Sep

Gold Reaches New Record as Investors Eye Further Rate Cuts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices soared to a new all-time high, with the troy ounce surpassing 2614 USD. This surge is primarily driven by expectations of additional interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which enhance gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Following the US Federal Reserve’s decision last week to reduce its interest rate by 50 basis points – the first such cut in four years – the market expects an equivalent reduction by the year’s end. This week, attention is focused on upcoming US macroeconomic releases, including the Core PCE report and personal income and expenditures data. These indicators will provide insights into the potential direction of future Fed rate adjustments.

Gold becomes increasingly attractive as an investment during periods of lower lending costs, which typically lead to reduced yields on government bonds and a lower Dollar Index (DXY). Unlike other assets, gold does not generate coupon income, making it more appealing when other yields decline.

Additionally, the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Gaza has further boosted demand for gold. In times of heightened global uncertainty and conflict, gold traditionally performs well as a defensive investment.

Despite some strengthening of the US dollar, this has not significantly impacted the upward trajectory of gold prices.

Technical analysis of gold (XAU/USD)

Gold has broken through the resistance at 2611.00 USD and is now targeting 2672.00 USD. Upon reaching this level, a corrective movement back to 2611.00 USD may occur, followed by another growth phase targeting 2750.00 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with the signal line well above zero and ascending sharply.

The H1 chart shows that gold has reached 2611.00 USD and is now consolidating around this level. The consolidation range is defined between 2603.00 USD and 2625.25 USD. A breakout above 2625.25 USD would likely lead to a continuation of the upward momentum towards 2672.00 USD, confirming the ongoing bullish trend. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line progressing towards 80, indicating sustained upward momentum.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

23 Sep

Bitcoin has reached the $64000 mark. Oil rises amid escalating conflict in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.09% (+2.52% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.19% (+1.56% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.36% (for the week +2.13%). Friday marked the quarterly expiration of futures and options. About $5.1 trillion worth of contracts expired on Friday, according to data from the Asym 500 analyst firm. The expiration also coincided with the rebalancing of benchmark indexes. The event has a reputation for sudden price movements as traders shift existing positions to new contracts.

FedEx (FDX) is falling more than 15% after the company reported Q1 adjusted EPS well below consensus and lowered its 2025 adjusted EPS estimate.

Canadian retail sales likely rose sharply in August after a solid July gain, signaling a strong rebound after two consecutive quarters of declining sales. The report sends a more optimistic signal about the strength of the Canadian economy than the latest gross domestic product data, which indicated growth stalled in June and July. The data may give Central Bank officials more confidence to curb inflation without plunging the economy into recession.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surpassed the $64,000 mark, hitting a one-month high and adding nearly 10% to its monthly gains. The moves came as the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points this month and announced plans for permanent policy easing. Traders now see the $70,000 mark as potential resistance for Bitcoin, as they did in late July.

Equity markets in Europe were steadily declining on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.49% (for the week +0.53%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.51% (for the week +0.92%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell 0.21% (for the week +2.02%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.19% (for the week -0.52%). European equities closed lower on Friday, reversing the previous session’s sharp gains as markets continued to assess the outlook for financial conditions this year following a series of Central Bank decisions this week. ECB Governing Council spokesman Rehn said on Friday that the ECB is clearly on track to ease monetary policy, with the pace and extent of easing dependent on fresh economic data and analysis.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $72 a barrel on Monday, extending their 3% gain from the previous week, boosted by the prospect of supply disruptions amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Hezbollah reportedly fired more than 100 rockets into northern Israel on Sunday. The attack followed an Israeli airstrike on Beirut on Friday that killed at least 45 people, including a top Hezbollah leader. However, concerns about Chinese demand remain, exacerbated by slowing production at refineries and weak industrial demand.
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Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.28%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.62%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 5.55%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 1.35%.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly came in at 1.9% for August 2024, compared to market estimates of 2.0%. This was the lowest rate since April. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative expenses, were 1.9% y/y, unchanged for the fifth month and maintaining the strongest growth since December 2023. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.1%, unchanged for the second consecutive month.

The Australian dollar edged above $0.68 on Monday, near its highest levels this year, as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision this week. The Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged on Tuesday amid strong labor market data and continued inflationary pressures. Markets don’t expect a rate cut until at least December, with some economists expecting the first move in February or even the second quarter of 2025.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly cut its 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.85% on September 23, 2024 from 1.95% previously. The Central Bank also injected 74.5 billion yuan of liquidity into the banking system. Monday’s measures came ahead of the National Day holiday, a seven-day break beginning October 1.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,702.55 −11.09 (−0.19%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,063.36 +38.17 (−0.091%)

DAX (DE40) 18,720.01 −282.37 (−1.49%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,229.99 −98.73 (−1.19%)

USD Index 100.74 +0.02 (+0.02%)

News feed for: 2024.09.23

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+3);
US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (27,565 contracts) with Silver (13,556 contracts), Platinum (11,975 contracts), Copper (6,870 contracts) and with Palladium (3,988 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decrease was Steel with a shortfall by -346 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (81 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (89.3 percent)
Silver (96.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (77.9 percent)
Copper (51.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.2 percent)
Platinum (76.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.7 percent)
Palladium (50.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.4 percent)
Steel (81.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.7 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (46 percent) and Platinum (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (28 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (0 percent) is the lowest trend score currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (27.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.9 percent)
Silver (12.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.8 percent)
Copper (0.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-10.9 percent)
Platinum (31.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.5 percent)
Palladium (45.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.4 percent)
Steel (7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (8.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 310,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 282,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.8	13.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	76.2	5.2
– Net Position:	310,066	-335,127	25,061
– Gross Longs:	369,734	74,647	52,976
– Gross Shorts:	59,668	409,774	27,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.6	-24.2	-18.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	20.0	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	75.0	7.1
– Net Position:	58,298	-77,306	19,008
– Gross Longs:	74,978	28,131	29,005
– Gross Shorts:	16,680	105,437	9,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.3	8.3	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-8.5	-7.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	34.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	46.9	5.9
– Net Position:	19,682	-25,602	5,920
– Gross Longs:	79,235	70,413	17,898
– Gross Shorts:	59,553	96,015	11,978
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	48.4	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	2.3	-16.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	24.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	58.2	5.3
– Net Position:	21,978	-27,031	5,053
– Gross Longs:	42,679	19,028	9,283
– Gross Shorts:	20,701	46,059	4,230
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	19.5	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-29.6	-9.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	58.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.7	20.1	11.1
– Net Position:	-7,000	7,226	-226
– Gross Longs:	5,102	10,983	1,853
– Gross Shorts:	12,102	3,757	2,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.7	55.5	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.8	-34.6	-66.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	72.4	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	57.3	1.0
– Net Position:	-3,923	3,795	128
– Gross Longs:	3,807	18,213	376
– Gross Shorts:	7,730	14,418	248
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	19.1	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-8.4	24.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

21 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (235,228 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (126,136 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10,506 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-77,632 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-71,921 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-44,450 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-45,481 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-20,204 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-15,145 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (100 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (95 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (84 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 10-Year Bond (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (100.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (50.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (28.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (30.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (48.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (46.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (45.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (61.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (84.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (91.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (18.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (94.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (98.7 percent)

Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (55 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) was the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-45.7 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-25 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-18 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (54.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (32.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (5.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-24.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-23.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-6.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (47.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (73.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-45.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-41.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (15.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (29.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 178,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 235,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,421 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	53.6	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	60.5	2.8
– Net Position:	178,807	-155,837	-22,970
– Gross Longs:	564,701	1,215,899	40,036
– Gross Shorts:	385,894	1,371,736	63,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.7	-52.3	-20.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 666,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -77,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 744,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	54.5	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	60.2	0.4
– Net Position:	666,595	-675,562	8,967
– Gross Longs:	2,000,550	6,449,299	50,395
– Gross Shorts:	1,333,955	7,124,861	41,428
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	4.6	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.2	7.0

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -180,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -44,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	64.5	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	50.6	0.3
– Net Position:	-180,527	184,536	-4,009
– Gross Longs:	219,572	856,650	379
– Gross Shorts:	400,099	672,114	4,388
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	82.4	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.7	46.4	-24.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,026,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,006,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	77.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	56.9	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,026,420	867,872	158,548
– Gross Longs:	637,164	3,321,163	279,299
– Gross Shorts:	1,663,584	2,453,291	120,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	65.7	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-4.9	-3.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,593,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 126,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,719,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	82.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	60.5	4.0
– Net Position:	-1,593,860	1,391,327	202,533
– Gross Longs:	607,540	5,260,229	455,505
– Gross Shorts:	2,201,400	3,868,902	252,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	91.7	91.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-3.8	-8.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,094,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -71,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,022,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	79.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	60.6	6.7
– Net Position:	-1,094,026	943,854	150,172
– Gross Longs:	431,039	3,910,709	479,362
– Gross Shorts:	1,525,065	2,966,855	329,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	98.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	36.5	2.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -45,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	73.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	68.8	12.9
– Net Position:	-45,640	105,997	-60,357
– Gross Longs:	325,963	1,559,701	212,603
– Gross Shorts:	371,603	1,453,704	272,960
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	33.9	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.7	-21.5	-23.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -109,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	65.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	65.2	7.7
– Net Position:	-109,711	-2,942	112,653
– Gross Longs:	358,317	1,142,280	247,909
– Gross Shorts:	468,028	1,145,222	135,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	27.9	96.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	11.2	12.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -274,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -259,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	77.4	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	64.2	9.0
– Net Position:	-274,303	228,728	45,575
– Gross Longs:	176,456	1,335,723	200,411
– Gross Shorts:	450,759	1,106,995	154,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.2	8.0	72.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.3	-64.6	34.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Sep

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (8,598 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (6,446 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-63,560 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-11,500 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-6,393 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-2,741 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (87 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (84 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (25 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (91.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (46.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (84.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (73.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (78.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (87.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (89.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (25.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (37.4 percent)

VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (37 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (12 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (10 percent) and the Russell-Mini (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (37.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (34.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-23.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-10.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (10.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (36.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-20.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-10.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,598 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,111 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	42.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	39.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-6,513	11,303	-4,790
– Gross Longs:	73,617	150,291	25,574
– Gross Shorts:	80,130	138,988	30,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.1	-45.3	34.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -122,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -63,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	72.1	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	70.7	7.4
– Net Position:	-122,948	37,745	85,203
– Gross Longs:	298,516	1,860,927	277,262
– Gross Shorts:	421,464	1,823,182	192,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	45.1	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	21.6	0.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	56.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	73.1	15.1
– Net Position:	14,614	-15,981	1,367
– Gross Longs:	22,588	55,756	16,195
– Gross Shorts:	7,974	71,737	14,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	15.0	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-12.6	8.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	55.4	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	67.7	10.6
– Net Position:	19,233	-32,928	13,695
– Gross Longs:	68,287	148,042	42,112
– Gross Shorts:	49,054	180,970	28,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	16.4	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-1.6	-9.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	73.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	76.0	3.7
– Net Position:	2,986	-15,705	12,719
– Gross Longs:	78,186	384,670	32,407
– Gross Shorts:	75,200	400,375	19,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.2	10.4	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-5.9	12.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -40,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	90.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	83.4	2.6
– Net Position:	-40,750	34,144	6,606
– Gross Longs:	28,094	463,792	19,771
– Gross Shorts:	68,844	429,648	13,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	71.6	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	19.6	2.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

21 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Cotton & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (19,749 contracts) with Soybeans (9,593 contracts), Sugar (8,847 contracts), Coffee (6,681 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,390 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,171 contracts), Wheat (2,114 contracts) and Cocoa (1,528 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-18,535 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-4,028 contracts) and Live Cattle (-2,551 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

On the downside, Live Cattle (12 percent), Cotton (12 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (27.8 percent)
Sugar (26.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.8 percent)
Coffee (94.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.7 percent)
Soybeans (14.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (12.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (38.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (43.4 percent)
Live Cattle (11.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.1 percent)
Cotton (11.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (44.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.8 percent)
Wheat (59.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (58.3 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (22 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (17 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Corn (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.0 percent)
Sugar (16.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.4 percent)
Soybeans (5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (22.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-29.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.4 percent)
Cotton (9.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.2 percent)
Cocoa (2.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.7 percent)
Wheat (18.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -66,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	43.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	36.5	12.2
– Net Position:	-66,295	104,089	-37,794
– Gross Longs:	337,834	623,438	135,315
– Gross Shorts:	404,129	519,349	173,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	76.3	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-9.2	-21.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 72,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	54.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	64.6	8.0
– Net Position:	72,250	-79,058	6,808
– Gross Longs:	174,439	409,670	67,622
– Gross Shorts:	102,189	488,728	60,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	73.7	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-16.9	16.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	36.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	72.6	2.5
– Net Position:	70,128	-73,522	3,394
– Gross Longs:	83,448	76,124	8,553
– Gross Shorts:	13,320	149,646	5,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.2	5.2	69.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-11.4	12.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -134,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	62.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	43.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-134,638	155,638	-21,000
– Gross Longs:	111,373	526,047	42,565
– Gross Shorts:	246,011	370,409	63,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	87.2	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-4.3	-18.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	50.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	48.8	4.9
– Net Position:	-8,897	6,668	2,229
– Gross Longs:	141,892	277,776	29,225
– Gross Shorts:	150,789	271,108	26,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	66.2	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-19.1	-6.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	47.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	59.1	5.4
– Net Position:	43,288	-61,679	18,391
– Gross Longs:	123,866	246,500	46,358
– Gross Shorts:	80,578	308,179	27,967
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	53.3	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-0.1	0.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	36.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	42.3	13.4
– Net Position:	30,498	-17,976	-12,522
– Gross Longs:	96,606	107,831	27,425
– Gross Shorts:	66,108	125,807	39,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	100.0	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	18.9	-4.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	38.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	35.8	9.4
– Net Position:	-3,310	6,745	-3,435
– Gross Longs:	93,358	98,065	20,404
– Gross Shorts:	96,668	91,320	23,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	69.7	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-20.2	1.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	47.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	37.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-26,362	24,854	1,508
– Gross Longs:	59,144	112,312	13,978
– Gross Shorts:	85,506	87,458	12,470
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	86.8	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.8	24.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	62.6	3.0
– Net Position:	33,753	-39,580	5,827
– Gross Longs:	51,815	50,202	10,154
– Gross Shorts:	18,062	89,782	4,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	52.3	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-2.5	-1.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	35.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	29.7	10.1
– Net Position:	-14,189	20,379	-6,190
– Gross Longs:	124,164	124,609	29,368
– Gross Shorts:	138,353	104,230	35,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	40.5	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-20.2	2.0

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