COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 9

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel (1,160 contracts) with Palladium (227 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-14,345 contracts), Gold (-6,887 contracts), Silver (-6,127 contracts) and with Copper (-4,184 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (17 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (97.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (100.0 percent)
Silver (79.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (88.0 percent)
Copper (45.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.2 percent)
Platinum (21.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.0 percent)
Palladium (16.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (82.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.7 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-29 percent) and Copper (-27 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.9 percent)
Silver (-7.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.8 percent)
Copper (-27.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.9 percent)
Platinum (-28.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.3 percent)
Steel (10.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 287,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.4	15.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	76.8	5.3
– Net Position:	287,558	-311,887	24,329
– Gross Longs:	339,157	80,416	51,198
– Gross Shorts:	51,599	392,303	26,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.2	4.0	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-4.2	-12.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	23.3	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.6	8.2
– Net Position:	46,059	-64,529	18,470
– Gross Longs:	64,099	30,538	29,148
– Gross Shorts:	18,040	95,067	10,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	22.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	10.3	-19.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.3	35.0	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	44.4	6.4
– Net Position:	12,961	-18,964	6,003
– Gross Longs:	77,290	70,738	18,996
– Gross Shorts:	64,329	89,702	12,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	54.1	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.2	29.0	-26.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	27.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	38.7	4.6
– Net Position:	1,388	-10,141	8,753
– Gross Longs:	41,924	23,587	12,771
– Gross Shorts:	40,536	33,728	4,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	64.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	26.8	12.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	61.5	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.5	8.9	7.0
– Net Position:	-11,633	11,622	11
– Gross Longs:	6,145	13,590	1,551
– Gross Shorts:	17,778	1,968	1,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	86.9	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	1.2	-38.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	69.8	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	50.9	1.2
– Net Position:	-3,732	3,836	-104
– Gross Longs:	4,066	14,153	135
– Gross Shorts:	7,798	10,317	239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	19.2	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.9	20.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators raised their Fed Funds and SOFR 3-Months bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (95,931 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (80,807 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (46,648 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (29,496 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24,032 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-88,390 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-62,403 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-62,439 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-18,810 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (100 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (93 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (46.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (31.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (28.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (40.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (35.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (72.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (78.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (100.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (86.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (38.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (55.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (92.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (88.7 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (79 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (26 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-40 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-30 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-22.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-4.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-29.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-22.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (10.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (79.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (69.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-40.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (25.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (34.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -90,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 95,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	70.3	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	63.9	2.5
– Net Position:	-90,734	106,172	-15,438
– Gross Longs:	226,762	1,163,911	25,969
– Gross Shorts:	317,496	1,057,739	41,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	53.6	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-5.5	-39.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 631,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 80,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 550,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	53.8	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	59.4	0.5
– Net Position:	631,571	-630,902	-669
– Gross Longs:	1,960,048	6,047,347	50,527
– Gross Shorts:	1,328,477	6,678,249	51,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.9	6.9	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-25.8	-1.0

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -104,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -62,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	63.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	53.5	0.1
– Net Position:	-104,183	104,828	-645
– Gross Longs:	193,472	683,928	332
– Gross Shorts:	297,655	579,100	977
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	61.4	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.3	40.1	2.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -982,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 46,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,029,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	77.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	57.9	2.5
– Net Position:	-982,462	814,688	167,774
– Gross Longs:	614,392	3,261,747	272,379
– Gross Shorts:	1,596,854	2,447,059	104,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	61.8	89.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-11.9	1.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,718,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -62,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,656,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	83.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	60.1	3.7
– Net Position:	-1,718,696	1,475,139	243,557
– Gross Longs:	548,634	5,348,029	478,777
– Gross Shorts:	2,267,330	3,872,890	235,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	99.1	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	11.1	8.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,002,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -88,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -914,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	78.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	61.1	7.0
– Net Position:	-1,002,827	846,839	155,988
– Gross Longs:	430,206	3,782,720	494,696
– Gross Shorts:	1,433,033	2,935,881	338,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	93.6	99.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.6	39.6	8.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -83,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	75.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	69.1	12.3
– Net Position:	-83,759	127,871	-44,112
– Gross Longs:	287,562	1,588,757	216,022
– Gross Shorts:	371,321	1,460,886	260,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	39.8	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-13.0	9.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,234 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	63.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	68.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-33,044	-85,532	118,576
– Gross Longs:	350,527	1,092,273	244,254
– Gross Shorts:	383,571	1,177,805	125,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-22.3	23.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -240,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 29,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -269,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	78.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	65.7	9.5
– Net Position:	-240,202	212,830	27,372
– Gross Longs:	159,543	1,320,086	187,073
– Gross Shorts:	399,745	1,107,256	159,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	79.1	-88.7	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

07 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Corn & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (58,051 contracts) with Sugar (24,887 contracts), Soybeans (22,241 contracts), Soybean Oil (21,488 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,966 contracts), Wheat (4,939 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,043 contracts) and Cocoa (1,738 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-3,440 contracts), Cotton (-1,079 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,986 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (88 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Wheat (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (3 percent), Soybeans (8 percent) and Live Cattle (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (22.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.0 percent)
Sugar (27.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.3 percent)
Coffee (88.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (91.1 percent)
Soybeans (8.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (34.4 percent)
Live Cattle (11.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (25.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (22.2 percent)
Cotton (2.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.5 percent)
Cocoa (42.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.8 percent)
Wheat (50.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (46.5 percent)

Corn & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (17 percent) and Lean Hogs (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (13 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and Soybean Meal (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-6 percent), Coffee (-3 percent) and Cotton (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (16.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.5 percent)
Sugar (13.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.9 percent)
Coffee (-2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.0 percent)
Soybeans (-5.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-0.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-6.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-14.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.3 percent)
Cotton (-2.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-6.4 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.1 percent)
Wheat (5.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -90,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 58,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	44.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	35.5	12.0
– Net Position:	-90,483	122,906	-32,423
– Gross Longs:	335,231	605,741	131,166
– Gross Shorts:	425,714	482,835	163,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	78.8	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-14.5	-29.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 72,802 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 24,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	54.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	64.2	7.2
– Net Position:	72,802	-78,891	6,089
– Gross Longs:	185,306	455,449	66,162
– Gross Shorts:	112,504	534,340	60,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	73.8	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-13.7	13.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 63,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.1	37.5	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	71.5	2.6
– Net Position:	63,921	-66,756	2,835
– Gross Longs:	80,574	73,587	8,016
– Gross Shorts:	16,653	140,343	5,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	11.7	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	2.3	2.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -162,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 22,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -184,266 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	65.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	42.7	7.5
– Net Position:	-162,025	184,576	-22,551
– Gross Longs:	111,107	538,620	39,691
– Gross Shorts:	273,132	354,044	62,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.3	94.4	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	8.7	-30.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	53.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	51.8	4.8
– Net Position:	-8,305	6,912	1,393
– Gross Longs:	133,596	283,945	26,951
– Gross Shorts:	141,901	277,033	25,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.9	66.3	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	3.9	-25.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	46.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	56.1	5.1
– Net Position:	29,015	-50,660	21,645
– Gross Longs:	122,853	242,812	48,556
– Gross Shorts:	93,838	293,472	26,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	57.6	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-3.6	18.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	36.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	43.1	13.0
– Net Position:	30,329	-18,370	-11,959
– Gross Longs:	95,135	109,383	26,606
– Gross Shorts:	64,806	127,753	38,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	100.0	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	19.8	0.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	38.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	33.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-7,742	12,341	-4,599
– Gross Longs:	97,199	95,993	17,559
– Gross Shorts:	104,941	83,652	22,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	75.8	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-16.4	-13.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	50.3	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	33.2	6.2
– Net Position:	-38,154	39,133	-979
– Gross Longs:	53,387	115,192	13,259
– Gross Shorts:	91,541	76,059	14,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	97.0	10.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	1.6	6.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	32.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	60.0	3.5
– Net Position:	31,930	-38,437	6,507
– Gross Longs:	52,248	44,648	11,329
– Gross Shorts:	20,318	83,085	4,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	53.5	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.6	6.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	35.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	26.7	9.4
– Net Position:	-27,742	33,399	-5,657
– Gross Longs:	134,551	134,830	29,968
– Gross Shorts:	162,293	101,431	35,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.4	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-5.7	2.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

07 Sep

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell Minis

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (33,089 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (15,541 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,641 contracts), the VIX (4,583 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (4,548 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-1,233 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-586 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (85 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) and DowJones-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (41 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (82.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (73.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (79.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (72.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (85.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (74.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (40.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (32.6 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent) and the Russell-Mini (41 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (35 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (28 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (34.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (34.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-5.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-6.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-11.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (24.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (40.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (22.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (29.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-10.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	47.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	40.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-25,889	24,890	999
– Gross Longs:	69,226	179,907	29,448
– Gross Shorts:	95,115	155,017	28,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	7.1	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.8	-44.3	37.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 33,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	68.9	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.2	8.0
– Net Position:	-48,819	-47,646	96,465
– Gross Longs:	322,215	1,451,604	265,814
– Gross Shorts:	371,034	1,499,250	169,349
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	33.3	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	6.6	-4.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	58.8	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	67.2	15.9
– Net Position:	7,136	-7,196	60
– Gross Longs:	19,772	50,054	13,594
– Gross Shorts:	12,636	57,250	13,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	27.8	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	10.8	-16.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	52.7	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	68.7	11.8
– Net Position:	25,988	-40,818	14,830
– Gross Longs:	67,895	133,799	44,849
– Gross Shorts:	41,907	174,617	30,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	7.8	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.2	-25.9	-5.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	72.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	75.1	4.4
– Net Position:	260	-12,603	12,343
– Gross Longs:	77,438	313,046	31,430
– Gross Shorts:	77,178	325,649	19,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	12.4	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.7	-36.6	-1.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	60.2	25.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	51.1	16.9
– Net Position:	-2,439	1,252	1,187
– Gross Longs:	1,939	8,230	3,499
– Gross Shorts:	4,378	6,978	2,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	35.2	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.0	-16.4	-18.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	88.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	84.3	1.5
– Net Position:	-26,037	18,072	7,965
– Gross Longs:	29,958	356,777	13,856
– Gross Shorts:	55,995	338,705	5,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	54.9	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.0	3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

31 Aug

Currency Speculators sharply boost Canadian Dollar and Euro bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were decidedly higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (54,408 contracts) with the EuroFX (36,821 contracts), the British Pound (22,420 contracts), the Australian Dollar (19,726 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (5,453 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,283 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,102 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,322 contracts) and Bitcoin (77 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only currencies seeing declines in speculator bets were the Mexican Peso (-3,926 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-2,008 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boost Canadian Dollar and Euro bets

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the sharp paring of the bearish bets in the Canadian dollar and the pushing higher of the Euro position to the best level in over seven months. Both currencies are potentially benefiting from the speculator’s views the US dollar will weaken with the US Federal Reserve starting on an interest rate cutting cycle.

Large speculative Canadian dollar positions rose this week by the highest weekly amount on record with a huge jump by +54,408 contracts. This week’s record gain surpasses the previous record weekly increase of +36,590 contracts that took place on March 25th of 2014.

This was the fourth straight weekly increase in speculator bets and brings the current speculator standing to a total of -110,002 contracts. The speculator sentiment has now been in a continuous bearish position for fifty-six straight weeks and recently hit the most bearish level on record at a total of -196,263 contracts on July 30th. Since then, the position rebound has been strong and swift – taking a total of 86,251 net contracts off that bearish record level.

The CAD exchange rate has been on the rise as well with the CAD gaining for the past four consecutive weeks against the US dollar. Currently, the CAD is testing a multi-year down-trending line that started in May/June of 2021 versus the USD and is on pace for over a 2 percent gain over the month of August.

Meanwhile, the Euro bets got a boost by +36,821 contracts this week following last week’s +29,034 contract gain. Euro bets have risen in six out of the past eight weeks for a total eight-week increase of +102,357 contracts. The current speculator positioning is now at a total of +92,838 contracts – the most bullish position since January 16th and only nine weeks after the last bearish position (July 2nd).

The Euro exchange versus the US dollar had risen for three out of the past four weeks before declining this week by over 1 percent. The currency closed at 1.1059 on Friday and is currently trading right as it’s 200-week moving average. The Euro is on pace to increase by just under 2 percent in the month of August.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) led the currency markets this week. The British Pound (77 percent), the Australian Dollar (74 percent), Bitcoin (64 percent) and the EuroFX (60 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (25 percent) and the US Dollar Index (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (44.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (41.5 percent)
EuroFX (59.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (76.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (66.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (98.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (50.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (38.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (74.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (57.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (24.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (14.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (48.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (3.7 percent)
Bitcoin (63.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (62.7 percent)

Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (84 percent) and the Swiss Franc (50 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (29 percent), the Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-26 percent), British Pound (-19 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.9 percent)
EuroFX (29.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-19.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-7.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (84.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (97.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (50.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-23.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-25.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-34.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-40.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-76.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-15.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-8.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-7.8 percent)
Bitcoin (6.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,591 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	19.3	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	53.7	7.0
– Net Position:	18,913	-17,555	-1,358
– Gross Longs:	37,377	9,846	2,191
– Gross Shorts:	18,464	27,401	3,549
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	63.6	0.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	3.6	-23.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 92,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 36,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	53.4	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	72.1	6.3
– Net Position:	92,838	-135,522	42,684
– Gross Longs:	218,381	388,226	88,749
– Gross Shorts:	125,543	523,748	46,065
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	38.5	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.0	-32.2	40.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 89,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	23.7	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	62.1	9.6
– Net Position:	89,931	-105,245	15,314
– Gross Longs:	152,163	65,042	41,570
– Gross Shorts:	62,232	170,287	26,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	19.5	94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	17.5	-1.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	59.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	69.6	10.5
– Net Position:	25,868	-31,450	5,582
– Gross Longs:	84,305	190,141	38,943
– Gross Shorts:	58,437	221,591	33,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	84.2	-84.3	42.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	65.7	18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	25.8	22.2
– Net Position:	-24,612	27,446	-2,834
– Gross Longs:	9,873	45,169	12,417
– Gross Shorts:	34,485	17,723	15,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	44.3	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	50.3	-55.7	41.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -110,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 54,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -164,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	77.3	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	41.4	9.5
– Net Position:	-110,002	106,144	3,858
– Gross Longs:	19,325	228,771	32,042
– Gross Shorts:	129,327	122,627	28,184
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	59.8	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-12.9	26.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	42.8	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	39.3	9.5
– Net Position:	-19,159	7,222	11,937
– Gross Longs:	81,486	87,629	31,461
– Gross Shorts:	100,645	80,407	19,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.5	24.1	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	24.1	-13.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	58.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	46.5	6.6
– Net Position:	-8,316	7,659	657
– Gross Longs:	20,648	37,932	4,943
– Gross Shorts:	28,964	30,273	4,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	69.6	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.1	36.1	15.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.2	54.5	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	71.7	3.4
– Net Position:	30,720	-29,312	-1,408
– Gross Longs:	66,669	92,793	4,303
– Gross Shorts:	35,949	122,105	5,711
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	54.9	2.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	16.6	-24.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -52,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	76.7	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.8	16.8	3.1
– Net Position:	-52,963	52,841	122
– Gross Longs:	13,034	67,673	2,832
– Gross Shorts:	65,997	14,832	2,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	98.7	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	7.6	2.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 77 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.2	3.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.8	4.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-166	-132	298
– Gross Longs:	25,105	1,083	1,308
– Gross Shorts:	25,271	1,215	1,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	61.3	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-8.0	-2.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

31 Aug

COT Speculator Extremes: Yen, Gold & Brazil Real lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 27th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 84.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 25,868 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,283 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 3.9 this week. The speculator position registered 294,445 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 3,192 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level resides at a 98.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 78.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -269,698 net contracts this week with a boost of 55,916 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 91.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -4.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 66,907 net contracts this week with an increase by 2,749 contracts in the speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level sits at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 34.8 this week.

The speculator position was 550,764 net contracts this week with a jump of 168,911 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 1.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -52,963 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,008 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 3.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.4 this week. The speculator position was -184,266 net contracts this week with a reduction by -5,373 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 3.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend f

Media

or the speculator strength score was -6.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -37,075 net contracts this week with a change of 5,753 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 4.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,656,257 net contracts this week with an improvement by 80,553 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 10.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.7 this week. The speculator position was -914,437 net contracts this week with a change of 123,675 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

31 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (3,192 contracts) with Silver (2,862 contracts), Platinum (907 contracts), Palladium (405 contracts) and Steel (279 contracts) also registering positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was Copper with a decrease by -3,129 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (98.7 percent)
Silver (88.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (84.1 percent)
Copper (49.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.1 percent)
Platinum (60.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.6 percent)
Palladium (15.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.1 percent)
Steel (77.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.6 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (7 percent) and Gold (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-39 percent) and Platinum (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (3.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (15.1 percent)
Silver (-10.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.9 percent)
Copper (-38.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-33.3 percent)
Platinum (-16.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.9 percent)
Palladium (-10.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.9 percent)
Steel (7.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 294,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 291,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.8	16.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	78.1	5.1
– Net Position:	294,445	-322,319	27,874
– Gross Longs:	343,330	85,102	54,689
– Gross Shorts:	48,885	407,421	26,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-5.0	13.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 52,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	25.7	21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	76.7	7.6
– Net Position:	52,186	-72,140	19,954
– Gross Longs:	65,715	36,444	30,674
– Gross Shorts:	13,529	108,584	10,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	14.1	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	12.9	-17.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.5	32.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	45.0	5.3
– Net Position:	17,145	-26,002	8,857
– Gross Longs:	89,063	70,518	20,271
– Gross Shorts:	71,918	96,520	11,414
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	48.0	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.9	37.8	-12.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	22.3	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	51.1	4.4
– Net Position:	15,733	-22,157	6,424
– Gross Longs:	42,951	17,204	9,838
– Gross Shorts:	27,218	39,361	3,414
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	32.5	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	18.5	-12.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	57.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.6	11.0	6.5
– Net Position:	-11,860	11,921	-61
– Gross Longs:	7,074	14,759	1,623
– Gross Shorts:	18,934	2,838	1,684
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.1	89.0	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	12.7	-18.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	76.4	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	56.5	0.9
– Net Position:	-4,892	4,942	-50
– Gross Longs:	3,177	18,955	180
– Gross Shorts:	8,069	14,013	230
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.7	23.4	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-7.7	7.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

31 Aug

COT Bonds Charts:Speculator bets led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (168,911 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (123,470 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (123,675 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (80,553 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (55,916 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27,769 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (19,261 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only bond market with declines in speculator bets for the week was the Fed Funds with a decline by -50,153 contracts on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (98 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (89 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (79 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Fed Funds (25 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (24.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (28.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (20.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (10.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (35.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (29.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (78.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (71.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (98.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (68.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (88.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (80.0 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (79 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-23 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-23 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-22.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-0.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-9.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-22.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-50.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (11.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (78.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (42.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (34.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (27.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 550,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 168,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 381,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	53.7	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	58.5	0.4
– Net Position:	550,764	-549,341	-1,423
– Gross Longs:	1,831,307	6,096,953	41,694
– Gross Shorts:	1,280,543	6,646,294	43,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	11.2	87.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.8	-35.0	2.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -186,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -50,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	72.0	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	62.5	2.2
– Net Position:	-186,665	196,735	-10,070
– Gross Longs:	211,045	1,481,802	34,377
– Gross Shorts:	397,710	1,285,067	44,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	73.4	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	26.1	-33.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,029,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 123,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,152,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	76.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	56.6	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,029,110	847,010	182,100
– Gross Longs:	604,289	3,296,807	309,945
– Gross Shorts:	1,633,399	2,449,797	127,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	64.2	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-12.1	2.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,656,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 80,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,736,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	80.9	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	59.8	4.7
– Net Position:	-1,656,257	1,455,628	200,629
– Gross Longs:	545,315	5,581,154	524,097
– Gross Shorts:	2,201,572	4,125,526	323,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	97.7	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	2.7	8.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -914,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 123,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,038,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	72.7	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	58.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-914,437	755,196	159,241
– Gross Longs:	421,807	3,961,978	630,292
– Gross Shorts:	1,336,244	3,206,782	471,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.1	82.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	27.0	11.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -107,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -135,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	72.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	66.1	12.1
– Net Position:	-107,791	144,379	-36,588
– Gross Longs:	297,395	1,597,169	229,945
– Gross Shorts:	405,186	1,452,790	266,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.5	44.3	90.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-12.9	16.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	63.5	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	68.2	8.9
– Net Position:	-14,234	-82,871	97,105
– Gross Longs:	347,170	1,132,220	255,324
– Gross Shorts:	361,404	1,215,091	158,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	0.0	97.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-19.6	19.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -269,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 55,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	78.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	64.8	10.2
– Net Position:	-269,698	253,669	16,029
– Gross Longs:	157,927	1,431,263	202,059
– Gross Shorts:	427,625	1,177,594	186,030
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.2	13.6	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	78.7	-82.7	2.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

31 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (28,611 contracts) with Corn (16,762 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,877 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,011 contracts), Cotton (5,753 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,475 contracts), Coffee (2,749 contracts) and Cocoa (1,304 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-6,975 contracts), Soybeans (-5,373 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-1,853 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

On the downside, Soybeans (3 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Live Cattle (15 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Sugar (18.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (15.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.8 percent)
Sugar (18.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.1 percent)
Coffee (91.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybeans (3.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.0 percent)
Live Cattle (15.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.7 percent)
Cotton (3.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (40.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (39.4 percent)
Wheat (46.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (51.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Corn (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (2 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-15 percent), Soybean Meal (-7 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (-6.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Coffee (-4.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.0 percent)
Soybeans (-5.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-6.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-21.6 percent)
Live Cattle (-14.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.7 percent)
Cotton (-6.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.2 percent)
Cocoa (-2.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.9 percent)
Wheat (2.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -148,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	44.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	32.3	11.6
– Net Position:	-148,534	175,015	-26,481
– Gross Longs:	317,652	644,776	142,421
– Gross Shorts:	466,186	469,761	168,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.0	85.7	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-9.5	-25.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	54.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	60.9	7.0
– Net Position:	47,915	-52,993	5,078
– Gross Longs:	188,930	453,498	63,531
– Gross Shorts:	141,015	506,491	58,453
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	81.2	26.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	6.7	-4.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	37.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	73.9	2.5
– Net Position:	66,907	-70,522	3,615
– Gross Longs:	81,646	73,105	8,571
– Gross Shorts:	14,739	143,627	4,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.1	8.1	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	3.7	4.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -184,266 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	63.8	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	39.4	7.8
– Net Position:	-184,266	198,947	-14,681
– Gross Longs:	108,772	520,608	48,554
– Gross Shorts:	293,038	321,661	63,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.1	97.9	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	6.3	-7.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	53.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	48.5	4.9
– Net Position:	-29,793	26,191	3,602
– Gross Longs:	129,368	288,506	30,211
– Gross Shorts:	159,161	262,315	26,609
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	75.9	28.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	16.4	-5.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	46.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	53.1	5.4
– Net Position:	17,049	-37,614	20,565
– Gross Longs:	118,177	244,382	49,070
– Gross Shorts:	101,128	281,996	28,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	62.8	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	5.2	15.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,622 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	36.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	44.2	13.5
– Net Position:	33,769	-21,555	-12,214
– Gross Longs:	97,052	106,439	26,856
– Gross Shorts:	63,283	127,994	39,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	96.4	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	18.9	-10.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	38.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	31.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-11,785	15,619	-3,834
– Gross Longs:	92,284	91,936	17,159
– Gross Shorts:	104,069	76,317	20,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	80.1	66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-12.9	-10.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	49.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	33.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-37,075	37,777	-702
– Gross Longs:	56,934	112,860	12,938
– Gross Shorts:	94,009	75,083	13,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	96.2	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	6.1	-1.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Potential Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	31.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	58.3	3.2
– Net Position:	30,192	-37,450	7,258
– Gross Longs:	54,055	43,405	11,674
– Gross Shorts:	23,863	80,855	4,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	54.5	74.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	0.2	16.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	35.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	26.0	9.1
– Net Position:	-32,681	35,914	-3,233
– Gross Longs:	139,525	138,475	32,640
– Gross Shorts:	172,206	102,561	35,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	52.3	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-4.9	14.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

31 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Russell 2000 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (11,846 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (10,059 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,885 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (2,895 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,641 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (538 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was the VIX with a drop by -5,880 contracts on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (82 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (74 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (82.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (88.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (52.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (56.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (74.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (65.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (59.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (32.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.4 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (29 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (24 percent) and the Russell-Mini (23 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-11 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (34.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (39.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-4.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-11.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (24.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (22.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (29.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (20.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-10.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -30,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	47.4	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	39.8	6.9
– Net Position:	-30,472	29,737	735
– Gross Longs:	72,728	185,078	27,820
– Gross Shorts:	103,200	155,341	27,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	12.4	89.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-37.3	9.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -81,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	68.7	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	70.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-81,908	-29,163	111,071
– Gross Longs:	302,165	1,442,162	269,396
– Gross Shorts:	384,073	1,471,325	158,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	35.9	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.1	3.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	57.0	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.7	13.8
– Net Position:	8,369	-10,461	2,092
– Gross Longs:	22,190	51,139	14,450
– Gross Shorts:	13,821	61,600	12,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	23.1	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	10.4	-1.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	53.4	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	68.2	10.8
– Net Position:	21,440	-36,200	14,760
– Gross Longs:	65,461	130,557	41,117
– Gross Shorts:	44,021	166,757	26,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	12.8	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.4	-19.4	3.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,127 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	74.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	74.0	4.4
– Net Position:	-15,281	-326	15,607
– Gross Longs:	66,764	311,806	34,344
– Gross Shorts:	82,045	312,132	18,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	20.3	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-22.9	12.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	61.4	24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	51.7	19.7
– Net Position:	-1,853	1,288	565
– Gross Longs:	1,939	8,134	3,180
– Gross Shorts:	3,792	6,846	2,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	35.4	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-10.5	-37.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	89.6	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	83.1	1.4
– Net Position:	-33,678	26,158	7,520
– Gross Longs:	27,770	362,277	13,219
– Gross Shorts:	61,448	336,119	5,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	63.3	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	10.0	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

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