COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 9

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year Bonds & Treasury Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (51,208 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (47,265 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (35,604 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (22,843 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (7,373 contracts) also showing higher weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-14,444 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-14,211 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-3,725 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-219 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds prices slightly up

The bond market prices on the week saw the longer U.S. Treasury bonds trending higher with gains of over 1%.

The 10-year Notes were higher by almost half a percent, while the 5-year, the 2-year, the Fed funds, and the 3-month overnight financing rate bonds were slightly higher on the week.

The 1-month secured overnight financing rate was the only bond with a weekly fall.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (84 percent) and the Fed Funds (65 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (2 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (64.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (43.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (40.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (54.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (84.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (85.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (28.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (31.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (35.1 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (34 percent) and the Fed Funds (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 1-Month (-22 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-5 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-11.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-1.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-10.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-21.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-31.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (33.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	60.5	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	64.1	1.9
– Net Position:	54,525	-77,029	22,504
– Gross Longs:	440,499	1,303,752	62,363
– Gross Shorts:	385,974	1,380,781	39,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	28.0	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.7	-31.0	12.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -479,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -487,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	59.3	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	55.0	0.6
– Net Position:	-479,775	495,967	-16,192
– Gross Longs:	1,471,092	6,885,623	57,425
– Gross Shorts:	1,950,867	6,389,656	73,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.5	65.2	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-32.2	-14.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -163,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	68.5	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	57.7	0.1
– Net Position:	-163,451	159,069	4,382
– Gross Longs:	185,699	1,011,197	6,250
– Gross Shorts:	349,150	852,128	1,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	70.6	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	19.8	17.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,248,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 51,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,299,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	77.2	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	51.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,248,652	1,115,887	132,765
– Gross Longs:	627,208	3,380,466	253,553
– Gross Shorts:	1,875,860	2,264,579	120,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.1	81.0	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	5.7	0.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,469,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 35,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,505,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	51.1	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,469,924	2,290,033	179,891
– Gross Longs:	488,633	5,860,765	447,110
– Gross Shorts:	2,958,557	3,570,732	267,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	97.1	82.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-0.7	3.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -749,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -772,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	77.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	63.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-749,534	660,277	89,257
– Gross Longs:	567,973	3,730,048	428,586
– Gross Shorts:	1,317,507	3,069,771	339,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	53.6	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	2.0	3.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -393,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -379,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	79.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	60.3	12.2
– Net Position:	-393,327	463,537	-70,210
– Gross Longs:	251,816	1,920,013	223,556
– Gross Shorts:	645,143	1,456,476	293,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	98.3	48.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	12.6	-19.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -82,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 47,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	76.3	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	76.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-82,879	-6,243	89,122
– Gross Longs:	160,579	1,368,819	234,183
– Gross Shorts:	243,458	1,375,062	145,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	37.1	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	0.9	-0.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -232,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	81.5	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	69.6	9.4
– Net Position:	-232,343	233,192	-849
– Gross Longs:	146,260	1,589,126	183,117
– Gross Shorts:	378,603	1,355,934	183,966
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.0	31.5	14.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	7.6	8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

27 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybeans, Soybean Oil & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans, Soybean Oil & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (20,739 contracts) with Soybean Oil (12,389 contracts), Wheat (11,612 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,164 contracts) and Live Cattle (4,413 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-7,630 contracts), Lean Hogs (-7,623 contracts), Corn (-4,426 contracts), Cocoa (-3,491 contracts), Cotton (-2,167 contracts) and Coffee (-16 contracts) with also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Prices down over the week

The soft commodities market prices were down across the board, with Live Cattle being the only market that had a positive week.

Soybean Meal dropped by almost -4%, Cocoa by over -3%, and Sugar was down by -2.5%. Soybeans, Coffee, Wheat, and Corn were also down by over -1 percent.

Over the past 30 days, Coffee is down by over -13%, followed by Soybean Meal which is lower by almost -9%. On the positive side, Cocoa is up by 14% in the last 30 days, followed by Soybean Oil which is up by over 10% in the same time frame.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (85 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (84 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (60 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent), Soybean Meal (5 percent), Cocoa (19 percent) and Corn (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.6 percent)
Sugar (2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.3 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.0 percent)
Soybeans (59.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (84.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (77.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.7 percent)
Live Cattle (85.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (81.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (89.8 percent)
Cotton (21.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.5 percent)
Cocoa (18.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.0 percent)
Wheat (51.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (42.5 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (32 percent) and Soybean Oil (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-11 percent), Soybean Meal (-10 percent) and Soybeans (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.6 percent)
Sugar (-11.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.9 percent)
Coffee (-6.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-3.8 percent)
Soybeans (-8.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-11.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (12.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.6 percent)
Live Cattle (-6.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-3.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.3 percent)
Cotton (5.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.4 percent)
Cocoa (-11.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-7.8 percent)
Wheat (32.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (25.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -133,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	43.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	32.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-133,883	165,523	-31,640
– Gross Longs:	289,307	652,507	141,014
– Gross Shorts:	423,190	486,984	172,654
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	82.3	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	7.7	-14.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	53.1	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	44.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-59,729	72,031	-12,302
– Gross Longs:	198,761	460,209	62,484
– Gross Shorts:	258,490	388,178	74,786
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	99.0	3.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.1	-7.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,117 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	41.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	61.9	4.1
– Net Position:	31,117	-31,817	700
– Gross Longs:	49,722	62,781	6,915
– Gross Shorts:	18,605	94,598	6,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	46.6	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	7.6	-31.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 36,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 20,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	52.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	54.0	7.0
– Net Position:	36,033	-18,411	-17,622
– Gross Longs:	182,121	466,698	45,428
– Gross Shorts:	146,088	485,109	63,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	39.1	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	10.7	-13.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 76,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	45.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	59.3	4.2
– Net Position:	76,514	-90,090	13,576
– Gross Longs:	143,743	285,705	39,958
– Gross Shorts:	67,229	375,795	26,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	15.7	89.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-22.0	40.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -73,578 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	49.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	42.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-73,578	52,672	20,906
– Gross Longs:	127,091	339,118	57,005
– Gross Shorts:	200,669	286,446	36,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.0	96.3	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	10.0	-1.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 108,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	28.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	49.6	13.3
– Net Position:	108,858	-86,017	-22,841
– Gross Longs:	198,499	114,349	30,934
– Gross Shorts:	89,641	200,366	53,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	17.5	17.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	10.2	-7.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 75,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,623 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.8	29.3	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	50.4	7.7
– Net Position:	75,180	-70,335	-4,845
– Gross Longs:	149,577	97,909	20,708
– Gross Shorts:	74,397	168,244	25,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	15.3	48.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	4.3	-3.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -27,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,167 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	47.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	35.4	5.0
– Net Position:	-27,250	26,936	314
– Gross Longs:	64,278	104,381	11,166
– Gross Shorts:	91,528	77,445	10,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	80.1	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-5.7	4.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	42.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	55.5	6.9
– Net Position:	8,332	-12,272	3,940
– Gross Longs:	23,631	39,492	10,378
– Gross Shorts:	15,299	51,764	6,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	81.4	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	13.5	-24.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	35.6	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	21.8	8.4
– Net Position:	-53,909	60,291	-6,382
– Gross Longs:	128,140	155,132	30,392
– Gross Shorts:	182,049	94,841	36,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	52.8	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.3	-30.1	-37.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

19 Jul

Euro Bets hit 83-week high, US Dollar Index Speculator Bets gain for 3rd Week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (7,625 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (321 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-24,798 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,573 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-4,956 contracts), the British Pound (-4,003 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,486 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,286 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-605 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-441 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-50 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Bets hit 83-week high, US Dollar Index Speculator Bets gain for 3rd Week

Highlighting the week for the currency markets this week was the Euro bets rising higher as well as a modest US Dollar Index comeback over the past three weeks.

The biggest mover with gains in speculative bets was the Euro which advanced for a second straight week and has now risen for eight out of the past ten weeks (for a 10-week improvement by +52,502 contracts). These gains have pushed the net speculator standing (currently at +128,221 contracts) to the highest level in 83-weeks, dating back to December 2023.

The US Dollar Index was the only other gainer in speculative bets on the week and the USD positions have risen for three straight weeks. Despite these gains, the US Dollar Index standing still remains in a small bearish position currently at -3,665 net contracts.

Elsewhere, the Brazilian Real saw a big drop in speculative positions by almost -25,000 contracts. The Brazilian Real positioning has been up and down over the last 10 weeks with big gains and big retreats. Currently, the Brazilian Real still has a positive net speculative position of almost +25,000 contracts.

The Japanese Yen saw another fall in speculator bets this week, with its overall net position standing at +103,582 contracts. This is down from the all-time high that was reached in April near +180,000 contracts. The Yen position has been clearly softening but still remains historically bullish with contracts over +100,000.

FX Price Changes this week

Overall, the Forex markets were pretty subdued in price changes for the week. The US Dollar Index was the only riser on the week and edged higher for a second week, up by approximately 0.70%. The Australian Dollar was the biggest decliner with a fall by over -1% on the week while the Japanese Yen was close to a -1% decline followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by almost -0.75%.

The US Dollar Index has made some gains over the last two weeks but prices stalled out around 98.60 on the upside this week and settled back down to end the week at 98.20. The U.S. Dollar Index is still down by over 10% since the beginning of the year and remains under that 100.00 psychological price level.

The Japanese Yen’s price uptrend has stalled and the currency has now fallen for three straight weeks (vs the USD). Meanwhile, the other currencies like the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and the Australian Dollar all saw slight declines on the week but still trade close to their highest levels of the year.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (79 percent) and the EuroFX (78 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (69 percent), Brazilian Real (64 percent) and the Swiss Franc (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Bitcoin (0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (23 percent) and the British Pound (46 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (77.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (79.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (82.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (55.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (68.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (56.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (84.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.1 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (32 percent) and the EuroFX (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the Swiss Franc (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-9 percent), Australian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-9.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-1.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	37.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	24.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-3,665	4,422	-757
– Gross Longs:	16,262	13,186	3,065
– Gross Shorts:	19,927	8,764	3,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.1	95.4	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	6.9	11.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 128,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	55.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	77.5	5.1
– Net Position:	128,221	-184,215	55,994
– Gross Longs:	242,096	451,525	97,608
– Gross Shorts:	113,875	635,740	41,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	18.4	92.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-15.7	1.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 29,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	26.7	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	46.7	14.0
– Net Position:	29,191	-37,481	8,290
– Gross Longs:	100,980	49,932	34,471
– Gross Shorts:	71,789	87,413	26,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	48.3	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	4.8	-11.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 103,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	33.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	68.3	11.2
– Net Position:	103,582	-110,846	7,264
– Gross Longs:	165,444	108,744	43,283
– Gross Shorts:	61,862	219,590	36,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	23.0	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	16.3	-38.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -22,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	66.7	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	35.7	20.3
– Net Position:	-22,637	23,016	-379
– Gross Longs:	9,959	49,559	14,677
– Gross Shorts:	32,596	26,543	15,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	37.0	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-4.7	-2.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	69.6	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	33.7	13.1
– Net Position:	-74,094	72,766	1,328
– Gross Longs:	21,924	141,093	27,836
– Gross Shorts:	96,018	68,327	26,508
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	44.5	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-16.0	10.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -74,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	64.5	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.9	16.3	14.4
– Net Position:	-74,919	72,528	2,391
– Gross Longs:	21,233	97,063	24,040
– Gross Shorts:	96,152	24,535	21,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	73.2	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.8	1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	38.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	47.8	9.7
– Net Position:	3,635	-4,003	368
– Gross Longs:	16,623	16,041	4,429
– Gross Shorts:	12,988	20,044	4,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	29.6	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.6	-31.0	3.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	38.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	72.5	1.7
– Net Position:	50,122	-56,173	6,051
– Gross Longs:	92,332	63,981	8,820
– Gross Shorts:	42,210	120,154	2,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	45.3	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	5.5	19.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	30.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	59.9	0.9
– Net Position:	24,172	-28,068	3,896
– Gross Longs:	60,809	28,965	4,761
– Gross Shorts:	36,637	57,033	865
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	34.1	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	4.7	4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -50 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	7.3	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.5	1.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,486	1,927	559
– Gross Longs:	24,282	2,287	1,629
– Gross Shorts:	26,768	360	1,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	6.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.5	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	-0.5	10.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

19 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq, Silver & Lean Hogs lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 15th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level now at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise of 31 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position registered 34,892 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 3,681 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number two in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -2 points this week. The overall speculator position was 59,448 net contracts this week with a small increase by 927 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings as the Lean Hogs speculator level resides at 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a rise of 12 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 82,803 net contracts this week with a change of -8,097 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position shows up next in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 points this week.

The speculator position was -873 net contracts this week with a drop by -3,971 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top scores in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 85 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week.

The speculator position was -228,618 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,794 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,486 net contracts this week with a dip of -50 contracts in the speculator bets. With the Bitcoin price hitting all-time highs, the weak speculator positioning indicates that speculators may be hedging contracts in the futures market to protect themselves from price declines.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the 5-Year speculator level is at just 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -5 points this week. The speculator position was -2,505,528 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,259 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -10 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -79,742 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,859 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -52,099 net contracts this week with a boost of 8,352 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -3,665 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 321 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year speculator position comes in as the next most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -379,116 net contracts this week with a jump of 29,162 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Metals Opinions

19 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (10,147 contracts), Palladium (1,153 contracts), Copper (1,120 contracts), Silver (927 contracts) and Steel (187 contracts) also showing positive weeks. The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Platinum (-1,472 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions

Gold led the market this week in terms of rising speculator positions, with the Gold price continuing to trade near its all-time high levels. This week, it closed a little below $3,360 and is still in an uptrend.

On the downside, Platinum was the only market to see a decline on the week, with a modest -1,472 contract decline. Platinum has also been a strong mover in the markets and is trading exceptionally higher since May, with a rise of almost 45% in just the past few months as the price has taken off.

Overall, the only metals market that still has a negative speculator level is Palladium at -3,581 contracts. Despite this bearish position, Palladium prices have also been on the rise, not as quite as sharp as the other metals but has started an upward move and risen to levels not seen since 2023.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (90 percent) and Palladium (78 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.3 percent)
Silver (90.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (89.2 percent)
Copper (71.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (70.1 percent)
Platinum (61.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (65.1 percent)
Palladium (77.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.9 percent)
Steel (73.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.3 percent)

Palladium & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (28 percent) and Copper (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-2 percent) joining as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.9 percent)
Silver (-1.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (6.9 percent)
Copper (15.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.9 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.8 percent)
Palladium (27.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.0 percent)
Steel (11.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 213,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	16.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	72.8	4.3
– Net Position:	213,115	-250,688	37,573
– Gross Longs:	270,227	75,989	56,976
– Gross Shorts:	57,112	326,677	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	32.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-10.8	15.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	20.7	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	67.1	7.1
– Net Position:	59,448	-79,648	20,200
– Gross Longs:	85,022	35,466	32,421
– Gross Shorts:	25,574	115,114	12,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.3	6.9	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-0.6	8.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	28.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	46.9	6.5
– Net Position:	40,724	-42,025	1,301
– Gross Longs:	75,423	63,262	15,789
– Gross Shorts:	34,699	105,287	14,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	34.2	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-12.9	-9.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	21.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	46.3	7.2
– Net Position:	19,302	-22,849	3,547
– Gross Longs:	55,186	19,611	10,187
– Gross Shorts:	35,884	42,460	6,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	41.7	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	0.9	4.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	35.0	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	22.9	9.4
– Net Position:	-3,581	2,402	1,179
– Gross Longs:	8,344	6,945	3,042
– Gross Shorts:	11,925	4,543	1,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	15.6	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.9	-31.3	17.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	68.9	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	71.4	0.7
– Net Position:	438	-670	232
– Gross Longs:	6,700	18,299	427
– Gross Shorts:	6,262	18,969	195
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	26.8	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-12.1	15.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

19 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (156,120 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (68,202 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (29,162 contracts), the Fed Funds (20,490 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-33,727 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-21,386 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (11,259 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,794 contracts), and the SOFR 1-Month (-1,100 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The 3-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) contracts were the leaders in the bond market for positive changes this week, gaining by over 150,000 positions. This market represents a short-term bond utilized by banks, broker-dealers and other entities and consistently has the highest open interest on a weekly basis.

On the other hand, the 2-year bond experienced the most significant decline this week, with a decrease of over -30,000 contracts.

Overall, most of the bond contract prices, ranging from the 2-year to the long treasury bonds, are trading within the same range that they have been for the past couple of years. While they are down from their 2020 levels, they continue to be in a holding pattern for the recent price history.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (1 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (60.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (39.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (32.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (45.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (31.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (32.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (27.0 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (37 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 1-Month (-32 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-11 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (55.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-11.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-10.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-5.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-9.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-19.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-31.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-48.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	61.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	64.5	2.2
– Net Position:	54,744	-60,193	5,449
– Gross Longs:	437,919	1,318,062	51,540
– Gross Shorts:	383,175	1,378,255	46,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	31.1	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.8	-35.2	-8.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -487,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 156,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -643,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	60.0	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	56.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-487,148	442,642	44,506
– Gross Longs:	1,394,554	6,835,065	90,452
– Gross Shorts:	1,881,702	6,392,423	45,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	62.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-24.2	12.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -149,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	69.7	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	59.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-149,007	145,500	3,507
– Gross Longs:	151,257	991,715	5,958
– Gross Shorts:	300,264	846,215	2,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	67.3	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.6	29.7	15.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,299,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,266,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	77.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	50.8	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,299,860	1,174,486	125,374
– Gross Longs:	600,084	3,389,554	247,372
– Gross Shorts:	1,899,944	2,215,068	121,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	86.4	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	12.8	1.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,505,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,516,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	51.0	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,505,528	2,344,691	160,837
– Gross Longs:	487,008	5,932,240	430,351
– Gross Shorts:	2,992,536	3,587,549	269,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	100.0	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	6.3	-2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -772,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 68,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -840,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	77.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	63.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-772,377	686,019	86,358
– Gross Longs:	572,071	3,797,640	435,018
– Gross Shorts:	1,344,448	3,111,621	348,660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	57.9	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.3	4.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -379,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -408,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	79.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	60.8	11.9
– Net Position:	-379,116	443,999	-64,883
– Gross Longs:	255,630	1,913,429	223,664
– Gross Shorts:	634,746	1,469,430	288,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	93.1	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-0.1	6.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -130,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	77.9	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	74.9	8.3
– Net Position:	-130,144	53,908	76,236
– Gross Longs:	145,115	1,405,838	226,498
– Gross Shorts:	275,259	1,351,930	150,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	54.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	11.4	-10.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -228,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -222,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	82.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	69.9	9.6
– Net Position:	-228,618	238,681	-10,063
– Gross Longs:	147,388	1,610,288	179,361
– Gross Shorts:	376,006	1,371,607	189,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	33.5	4.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	3.2	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

19 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (12,305 contracts) with Sugar (8,352 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,859 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,963 contracts), Cotton (4,662 contracts), Live Cattle (3,123 contracts) and Coffee (2,212 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-22,774 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,097 contracts), Wheat (-3,681 contracts) and with Cocoa (-761 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The biggest positive mover this week was Corn, with a gain of over 12,000 contracts. Although Corn saw higher bets this week, overall the position has been in an extreme bearish level compared to the last three years. The corn price in the markets has been on the decline and has been touching the lowest levels in a year.

On the downside, Soybeans saw the biggest retreat this week, with a decrease of over 20,000 contracts. Soybean prices have also been lower over the last couple of years, and in fact, are almost 40% off the highs from 2022.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (90 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (3 percent), Sugar (4 percent) and Corn (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (16.9 percent)
Sugar (4.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.9 percent)
Soybeans (54.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (77.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (81.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (89.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (95.9 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (22.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.8 percent)
Wheat (42.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (45.5 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (26 percent) and Soybean Oil (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (12 percent) and Cotton (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-11 percent), Soybean Meal (-10 percent) and Cocoa (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.5 percent)
Sugar (-13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-23.1 percent)
Coffee (-3.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.2 percent)
Soybeans (-11.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (12.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-13.8 percent)
Live Cattle (1.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.3 percent)
Cotton (4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-7.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-8.7 percent)
Wheat (25.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -129,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	44.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	33.5	11.5
– Net Position:	-129,457	157,267	-27,810
– Gross Longs:	293,548	649,577	141,147
– Gross Shorts:	423,005	492,310	168,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	81.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	8.0	-4.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	51.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	44.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-52,099	65,399	-13,300
– Gross Longs:	204,179	448,590	62,405
– Gross Shorts:	256,278	383,191	75,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	97.4	2.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	13.3	-8.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	41.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	62.7	4.0
– Net Position:	31,133	-31,971	838
– Gross Longs:	48,940	62,472	6,921
– Gross Shorts:	17,807	94,443	6,083
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	46.4	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.9	-20.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -22,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	51.7	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	51.7	7.1
– Net Position:	15,294	-82	-15,212
– Gross Longs:	186,780	455,507	47,563
– Gross Shorts:	171,486	455,589	62,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	44.0	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	12.0	0.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	45.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	57.7	4.4
– Net Position:	64,125	-76,481	12,356
– Gross Longs:	135,739	279,001	39,591
– Gross Shorts:	71,614	355,482	27,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	22.6	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-14.6	34.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -79,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	50.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	42.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-79,742	55,787	23,955
– Gross Longs:	128,060	340,589	59,734
– Gross Shorts:	207,802	284,802	35,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	97.5	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	9.8	-0.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 104,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	49.6	13.4
– Net Position:	104,445	-81,860	-22,585
– Gross Longs:	194,938	114,273	30,461
– Gross Shorts:	90,493	196,133	53,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	22.6	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.6	-8.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 82,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	28.1	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.0	7.6
– Net Position:	82,803	-77,017	-5,786
– Gross Longs:	157,623	98,669	21,044
– Gross Shorts:	74,820	175,686	26,830
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	9.9	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-11.8	-9.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	47.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	35.7	4.9
– Net Position:	-25,083	24,866	217
– Gross Longs:	63,934	100,515	10,668
– Gross Shorts:	89,017	75,649	10,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	78.9	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-4.9	10.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	41.2	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	57.9	7.1
– Net Position:	11,823	-16,021	4,198
– Gross Longs:	26,360	39,587	11,035
– Gross Shorts:	14,537	55,608	6,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	77.6	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	9.8	-21.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	37.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	20.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-65,521	71,099	-5,578
– Gross Longs:	117,724	154,773	30,534
– Gross Shorts:	183,245	83,674	36,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	62.6	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-22.3	-38.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

29 Jun

US Dollar Index Speculators drop their bets to lowest level since 2021

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (13,166 contracts) with the EuroFX (9,582 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (4,043 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (1,400 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,462 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-6,962 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,716 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-3,172 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,066 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-888 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-377 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculators drop their bets to lowest level since 2021

The U.S. dollar index speculator position dropped this week for a second consecutive week and is now at the lowest level in the past 225 weeks. This is the lowest standing dating back to March 9th of 2021 when the speculator positions were negative by over -8,000 contracts.

The U.S. dollar index speculator position has fallen by -7,436 contracts in the last two weeks and by over -22,000 contracts in the last 15 weeks, going from +16,835 contracts on March 11th to -6,034 contracts this week.

Despite geopolitical turmoil over the last few weeks, the dollar index has not experienced safe haven flows and is now trading under the 98.00 exchange rate. This is the lowest level since 2022 when the index was on the rise up and culminated later that year at a high of nearly 115.00 in September 2022. The dollar index is now down about 12% since the beginning of the year after starting the year near the 110.00 exchange rate.

Quick Roundup:

Other Currencies:
– Non-US dollar contracts are improving week to week and month to month.
– Negative contracts at this point are the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the US dollar index and Bitcoin.

Euro:
– Speculator positions have risen for five consecutive weeks and by over 36,000 contracts over that period.
– The Euro speculator position is now back over +100,000 contracts for the second consecutive week.
– The Euro positions are now at their highest level since January of 2024.

Japanese Yen:
– Speculator bets have cooled off somewhat after hitting record high in the last few months.
– The currency has been consolidating over the last two months, however it is up about 10% since beginning of the year.

Swiss Franc:
– Continues to have a negative large speculator position but has been steadily improving since the beginning of the year.
– It has halved its negative position to the current level of -20,000 contracts.
– Swiss franc has benefited from safe haven flows, rising approximately 15% against the U.S. dollar since January

Australian Dollar:
– The AUD exchange rate is up about 5% against the U.S. dollar in 2025.
– However, the speculator position is the most bearish out of all the major currencies as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rate in May meeting.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (87 percent) and the Brazilian Real (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (71 percent), New Zealand Dollar (68 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) and Bitcoin (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.6 percent)
EuroFX (71.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (67.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (52.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (87.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (86.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (58.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (60.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (64.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (24.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (67.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (63.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (80.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (86.5 percent)
Bitcoin (4.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.4 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (10 percent), the Swiss Franc (4 percent) and the British Pound (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-16 percent), the US Dollar Index (-12 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-11.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (10.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-14.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (29.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-5.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	40.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.9	18.8	11.4
– Net Position:	-6,034	6,748	-714
– Gross Longs:	13,283	12,617	2,840
– Gross Shorts:	19,317	5,869	3,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.3	-3.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 111,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	54.7	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	76.3	5.5
– Net Position:	111,135	-164,301	53,166
– Gross Longs:	223,791	417,363	94,870
– Gross Shorts:	112,656	581,664	41,704
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	25.2	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-10.2	7.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	24.0	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	48.5	14.6
– Net Position:	34,395	-44,035	9,640
– Gross Longs:	99,848	43,166	35,906
– Gross Shorts:	65,453	87,201	26,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	45.6	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-5.0	10.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 132,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.7	29.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	76.2	8.0
– Net Position:	132,277	-147,710	15,433
– Gross Longs:	178,403	92,034	40,462
– Gross Shorts:	46,126	239,744	25,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	13.7	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	9.4	6.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	65.8	22.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	35.9	22.0
– Net Position:	-20,944	20,768	176
– Gross Longs:	8,184	45,702	15,449
– Gross Shorts:	29,128	24,934	15,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	33.4	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-3.6	0.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	67.5	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	42.4	12.3
– Net Position:	-53,167	50,430	2,737
– Gross Longs:	25,267	135,776	27,452
– Gross Shorts:	78,434	85,346	24,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	35.0	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-17.6	35.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -72,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	64.9	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.4	18.2	13.7
– Net Position:	-72,562	70,475	2,087
– Gross Longs:	23,249	97,992	22,820
– Gross Shorts:	95,811	27,517	20,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	72.0	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	11.7	9.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	38.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	47.2	7.3
– Net Position:	2,770	-3,877	1,107
– Gross Longs:	18,619	17,004	4,355
– Gross Shorts:	15,849	20,881	3,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	29.8	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-29.2	7.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.0	37.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	75.5	1.8
– Net Position:	51,311	-55,780	4,469
– Gross Longs:	83,729	55,155	7,127
– Gross Shorts:	32,418	110,935	2,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	45.5	47.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	7.1	3.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	33.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	70.2	1.0
– Net Position:	44,730	-48,182	3,452
– Gross Longs:	66,374	44,952	4,804
– Gross Shorts:	21,644	93,134	1,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	17.9	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-0.9	-0.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.3	6.9	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.2	1.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,161	1,692	469
– Gross Longs:	24,232	2,152	1,497
– Gross Shorts:	26,393	460	1,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	94.3	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.1	3.2	61.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

28 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets mixed, led by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,633 contracts) with Platinum (1,985 contracts) and Palladium (740 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,644 contracts), Silver (-4,227 contracts) and with Steel (-378 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (95 percent) and Platinum (76 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (56.4 percent)
Silver (94.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (60.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.4 percent)
Platinum (75.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (70.9 percent)
Palladium (70.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (65.1 percent)
Steel (64.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (66.9 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (45 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (19 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.5 percent)
Silver (19.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (22.4 percent)
Copper (7.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.0 percent)
Platinum (37.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.4 percent)
Palladium (44.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (35.6 percent)
Steel (-7.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 195,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 200,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.9	16.9	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	69.9	4.5
– Net Position:	195,004	-230,560	35,556
– Gross Longs:	256,077	73,323	55,009
– Gross Shorts:	61,073	303,883	19,453
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	39.3	94.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-14.2	19.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.4	23.1	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	70.4	7.6
– Net Position:	62,947	-82,477	19,530
– Gross Longs:	84,491	40,422	32,867
– Gross Shorts:	21,544	122,899	13,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	3.8	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-17.9	5.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	30.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	46.3	6.3
– Net Position:	29,433	-31,719	2,286
– Gross Longs:	70,781	62,511	15,032
– Gross Shorts:	41,348	94,230	12,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	43.1	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-6.4	-3.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.7	18.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	48.4	5.6
– Net Position:	25,212	-30,113	4,901
– Gross Longs:	60,143	18,640	10,538
– Gross Shorts:	34,931	48,753	5,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	25.4	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.6	-37.3	8.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	39.0	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.7	21.9	8.0
– Net Position:	-4,508	3,359	1,149
– Gross Longs:	8,186	7,661	2,714
– Gross Shorts:	12,694	4,302	1,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.6	22.9	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.7	-48.1	15.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	68.8	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	65.9	0.5
– Net Position:	-1,074	932	142
– Gross Longs:	8,143	22,470	294
– Gross Shorts:	9,217	21,538	152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	36.0	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	6.3	19.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

28 Jun

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Lean Hogs & Silver lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 24th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 99.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 6 points this week. The speculator position registered 7,260 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 5,223 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 99 percent score or just below its maximum of the 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 36 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 94,956 net contracts this week although saw a dip by -1,312 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19 points this week. The overall speculator position was 62,947 net contracts this week with a reduction by -4,227 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position registers number four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 19 points this week.

The speculator position was -209,526 net contracts this week with a drop by -19,812 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen speculator position rounds out the top five in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese yen speculator level is at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -11 points this week. The overall speculator position was 132,277 net contracts this week with an increase by 1,400 contracts in the speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position also comes in tied at the top of the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -23 points this week. The overall speculator position was -47,220 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -79 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -76,064 net contracts this week with a decrease by -16,876 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,463,629 net contracts this week with a decline of -20,348 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in also tied atop as the most bearish extreme standings. The USD Index speculator level is rounded to a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -12 points this week. The speculator position was -6,034 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,066 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -13 points this week. The speculator position was -367,108 net contracts this week with a dip by -19,423 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

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