COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 7

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (83,284 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (61,687 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (61,457 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (44,412 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (15,030 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10,479 contracts) also showing positive weekly position changes.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-76,769 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-11,568 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,783 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

10-Year Bonds lead price gains for the week

The bond markets price performance this week saw the 10-Year Note edge up by 0.40% to lead the bonds over the last 5 days. Next was the 5-Year Bond, which rose by 0.38% on the week. The Fed Funds was up by 0.23%, the 2-Year Bond was up by 0.16%, while the 3-month secured overnight financing rate was up by 0.11%. On the downside, the 1-month secured overnight financing rate was lower by a minuscule -0.01%, while the long U.S. Treasury bond was down by -0.52% on the week.

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (78 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (12.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (28.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (21.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (65.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (77.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (80.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (62.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (65.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (45.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (41.3 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (33 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-70 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-70.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-54.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (32.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (33.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (10.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (14.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -393,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -76,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -317,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	70.8	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	55.3	1.6
– Net Position:	-393,823	387,741	6,082
– Gross Longs:	234,998	1,768,689	46,345
– Gross Shorts:	628,821	1,380,948	40,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-70.1	72.4	0.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -284,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 83,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	56.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.9	0.3
– Net Position:	-284,862	284,938	-76
– Gross Longs:	1,879,823	7,177,125	35,672
– Gross Shorts:	2,164,685	6,892,187	35,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	54.3	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-8.2	-21.8

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	59.8	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	58.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-24,498	23,079	1,419
– Gross Longs:	333,133	1,050,557	2,063
– Gross Shorts:	357,631	1,027,478	644
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	37.2	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-30.1	-4.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,263,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 61,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,324,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	77.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	52.9	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,263,082	1,103,308	159,774
– Gross Longs:	502,153	3,487,542	307,308
– Gross Shorts:	1,765,235	2,384,234	147,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	75.4	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-7.6	10.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,463,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 44,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,508,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	51.5	4.0
– Net Position:	-2,463,971	2,276,169	187,802
– Gross Longs:	483,232	6,128,955	488,889
– Gross Shorts:	2,947,203	3,852,786	301,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	95.8	84.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.8	6.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -883,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -945,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	76.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	63.6	6.2
– Net Position:	-883,829	729,027	154,802
– Gross Longs:	508,552	4,316,228	503,746
– Gross Shorts:	1,392,381	3,587,201	348,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	63.2	91.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	6.0	22.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -328,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -339,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	72.7	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	58.8	11.6
– Net Position:	-328,671	375,957	-47,286
– Gross Longs:	310,448	1,972,725	266,499
– Gross Shorts:	639,119	1,596,768	313,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	74.9	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-18.2	15.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,030 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	78.7	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	81.9	6.6
– Net Position:	-36,013	-72,481	108,494
– Gross Longs:	158,716	1,767,293	255,791
– Gross Shorts:	194,729	1,839,774	147,297
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	17.9	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.7	-36.7	31.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -248,945 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -242,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	81.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.8	8.7
– Net Position:	-248,945	250,719	-1,774
– Gross Longs:	132,974	1,797,826	191,259
– Gross Shorts:	381,919	1,547,107	193,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.8	38.1	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	4.6	8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

30 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (34,270 contracts) with Soybean Meal (15,232 contracts), Wheat (14,836 contracts), Lean Hogs (6,359 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,303 contracts), Coffee (2,614 contracts) and Live Cattle (136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-4,445 contracts), Cocoa (-4,033 contracts), Cotton (-2,501 contracts) and with Soybeans (-1,557 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee leads price gains on the week

The soft commodities price performance this week was led for a second straight week by Coffee, which rose by over 6% in the last 5 days. Lean Hogs was next with a gain by over 5.5%. Soybean Meal rose by 2.27%, followed by Live Cattle, which rose by approximately 2%. Corn was up by 1.56%, and Wheat was also higher by 1.42%.

Soybeans was virtually unchanged with a -0.04%, edging lower this week. Sugar fell by -0.73%. Cotton was down by -1.28%, followed by Cocoa, which saw a -2.70% decline. And finally, Soybean Oil was the lowest on the week with a decrease by -3.03%.

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (85 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (73 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (15 percent) and Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (26.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.9 percent)
Sugar (0.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.7 percent)
Soybeans (55.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (72.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (69.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.7 percent)
Live Cattle (82.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (79.9 percent)
Cotton (14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.4 percent)
Cocoa (18.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.2 percent)
Wheat (31.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.8 percent)

Soybean Meal & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (18 percent) and Corn (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (2 percent) and Soybeans (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-8 percent), Sugar (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.8 percent)
Coffee (0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.3 percent)
Soybeans (0.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (1.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.0 percent)
Cotton (-7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.3 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.6 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -70,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	46.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	40.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-70,940	93,769	-22,829
– Gross Longs:	337,007	675,979	135,440
– Gross Shorts:	407,947	582,210	158,269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.6	71.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.6	5.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -74,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	45.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-74,738	75,802	-1,064
– Gross Longs:	190,535	491,865	71,165
– Gross Shorts:	265,273	416,063	72,229
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	96.8	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	2.4	16.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	38.2	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	59.0	3.8
– Net Position:	31,274	-33,581	2,307
– Gross Longs:	55,237	61,582	8,434
– Gross Shorts:	23,963	95,163	6,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	44.9	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-1.5	24.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	56.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	56.2	7.8
– Net Position:	18,189	-643	-17,546
– Gross Longs:	153,775	483,561	49,348
– Gross Shorts:	135,586	484,204	66,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	43.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-0.2	-6.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	43.5	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	54.0	4.3
– Net Position:	55,510	-63,636	8,126
– Gross Longs:	142,575	262,931	34,031
– Gross Shorts:	87,065	326,567	25,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	29.2	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	6.6	-21.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	52.4	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	49.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-32,896	18,769	14,127
– Gross Longs:	108,956	312,972	48,413
– Gross Shorts:	141,852	294,203	34,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	82.5	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-14.2	-54.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 106,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	28.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.6	12.8
– Net Position:	106,277	-85,211	-21,066
– Gross Longs:	189,758	112,784	28,909
– Gross Shorts:	83,481	197,995	49,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	18.5	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-4.1	5.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	27.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	48.4	7.3
– Net Position:	76,068	-71,664	-4,404
– Gross Longs:	152,263	93,942	20,718
– Gross Shorts:	76,195	165,606	25,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	14.2	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.3	8.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	48.0	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	32.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-37,606	37,534	72
– Gross Longs:	67,460	116,539	12,245
– Gross Shorts:	105,066	79,005	12,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	86.2	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	7.3	-1.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	45.8	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	58.9	8.1
– Net Position:	7,996	-11,793	3,797
– Gross Longs:	24,532	41,060	11,033
– Gross Shorts:	16,536	52,853	7,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	81.9	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	4.3	-4.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	20.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-78,782	78,683	99
– Gross Longs:	127,585	171,579	33,536
– Gross Shorts:	206,367	92,896	33,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	69.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	6.9	33.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

24 Aug

Speculators raise Euro Speculator Bets while British Pound Bets Rebound

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (13,908 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (3,347 contracts), the EuroFX (3,314 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,286 contracts), the Swiss Franc (765 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (617 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (259 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-9,172 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,982 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,002 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-458 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise Euro Speculator Bets while British Pound Bets Rebound

Highlighting the currency’s speculator data this week was a rebound in the British Pound Sterling and a push higher in the Euro speculator bets.

First off, the British Pound Sterling bets surged this week by almost +14,000 contracts. This follows five straight weeks of declines that had brought the Sterling contracts from a positive bullish position as recently as July 22nd into a bearish position that has persisted for the past four weeks. Previously, the GBP speculator position had been in a bullish standing for 22 consecutive weeks from February until July 22nd.

Helping to dent the British Pound Sterling sentiment was an interest rate cut in early August by the Bank of England. Despite the bearish sentiment in the Sterling, the exchange rate for the British Pound against the US Dollar has been higher on the year and has touched the highest levels since 2021, around the 1.3800 level.

So far throughout 2025, the Pound Sterling is up by roughly 11% against the US Dollar and could see further gains as the US Federal Reserve hinted there could be rate cuts coming for the US economy. In fact, 75% of market participants are expecting a 25-basis interest rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Next up, the Euro currency speculator position rose this week by a modest +3,304 contracts. This breaks a streak of four straight weeks of declines and pushes the current speculator standing to the highest level of the past three weeks. The Euro speculator positioning continues to be highly bullish as spec positions have been over +100,000 contracts for 10 consecutive weeks, with this week’s total being +118,745 bullish contracts. Overall, the Euro has now been in a bullish position for 24 straight weeks after turning bullish on March 11th.

In the exchange rate prices, the Euro has been higher by approximately 15% against the US Dollar this year. Currently, the Euro trades at the 1.1739 exchange rate against the US Dollar and has topped out around 1.1890 this year, which was the highest level seen since August of 2021.

Currency Exchange Rates: Mexican Peso leads price changes for last 5 days

The weekly price performance of the major currencies over the last 5 days showed that the Mexican Peso led the way with a weekly rise of 0.82%. The Swiss Franc was next with an increase of 0.66% on the week.

The Yen and the Euro were both slightly above no change on the week, with changes of 0.19% and 0.16%, respectively. The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a -0.04% change. Same with the Canadian Dollar, which had a decline of -0.10% decline for the week.

The British Pound was slightly down with a -0.27% dip. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.30%, Bitcoin fell by -0.31% and the Brazilian Real dipped by -0.45%. Finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -0.99% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the Japanese Yen (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (20 percent) and the Bitcoin (27 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.8 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (20.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (72.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (71.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.7 percent)
Bitcoin (27.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.0 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (26 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-0.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-27.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-33.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-9.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.3 percent)
Bitcoin (26.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (21.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	39.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	21.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-5,988	5,060	928
– Gross Longs:	11,359	11,278	4,046
– Gross Shorts:	17,347	6,218	3,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	96.3	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.7	23.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 118,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	54.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	75.0	5.6
– Net Position:	118,745	-166,431	47,686
– Gross Longs:	252,719	452,297	94,142
– Gross Shorts:	133,974	618,728	46,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	24.5	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	3.7	-19.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	47.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	37.8	12.9
– Net Position:	-25,185	20,792	4,393
– Gross Longs:	81,303	103,816	32,702
– Gross Shorts:	106,488	83,024	28,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	72.5	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	26.6	-12.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 77,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,234 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	40.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	63.0	9.8
– Net Position:	77,581	-79,882	2,301
– Gross Longs:	168,363	139,967	36,614
– Gross Shorts:	90,782	219,849	34,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.0	30.8	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	12.3	-23.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	75.4	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	32.3	25.6
– Net Position:	-27,278	34,522	-7,244
– Gross Longs:	6,459	60,354	13,224
– Gross Shorts:	33,737	25,832	20,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	55.8	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	22.4	-36.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	74.8	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.8	29.1	14.2
– Net Position:	-93,079	100,818	-7,739
– Gross Longs:	19,028	165,165	23,694
– Gross Shorts:	112,107	64,347	31,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	55.8	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	13.8	-30.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -94,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,982 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	66.9	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.1	16.7	11.7
– Net Position:	-94,887	93,396	1,491
– Gross Longs:	31,668	124,358	23,253
– Gross Shorts:	126,555	30,962	21,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	85.6	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	15.0	-12.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	53.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	42.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-4,070	5,069	-999
– Gross Longs:	12,986	25,428	4,229
– Gross Shorts:	17,056	20,359	5,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	39.8	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	13.5	-38.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	37.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	79.7	2.0
– Net Position:	64,525	-67,928	3,403
– Gross Longs:	91,974	61,700	6,638
– Gross Shorts:	27,449	129,628	3,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	39.3	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-4.1	-8.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	34.5	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	66.1	1.0
– Net Position:	30,410	-33,494	3,084
– Gross Longs:	61,948	36,559	4,144
– Gross Shorts:	31,538	70,053	1,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	29.7	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	15.8	-6.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.6	5.4	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.8	2.7	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,200	758	442
– Gross Longs:	23,064	1,552	1,493
– Gross Shorts:	24,264	794	1,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	73.5	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-25.0	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Aug

Speculator Extremes: MSCI EAFE & FedFunds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 19th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in at the top of the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a change of 3 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 5,439 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -2,355 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings as the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 33,845 net contracts this week with a decline of -8,467 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week as the Live Cattle speculator level is at 83 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 106,141 net contracts this week with no change in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 69,709 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,218 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level is at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a change of -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -242,162 net contracts this week with a drop by -33,030 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The FedFunds speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a large drop by -62 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -317,054 net contracts this week with a reduction by -83,387 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -38 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 120,209 net contracts this week with a rise of 3,467 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The USD Index speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -5,988 net contracts this week with an increase of 259 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -70,293 net contracts this week with a slide of -1,781 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Next, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,508,383 net contracts this week with a change of 57,986 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

23 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gains in Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (2,281 contracts) and with Steel (60 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-16,895 contracts), Platinum (-2,738 contracts), Copper (-2,179 contracts) and with Palladium (-238 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Silver leads the Weekly Price Performance for Metals Markets

The major metal markets price changes for the week were led by Silver, which advanced by just about 2.5%. Copper was the next highest mover with a gain of 1.24%, followed by Gold, which was higher by 1%, and Palladium, which increased by 0.76% over the last five days.

Copper saw a small slide of -0.54%, while Steel was the biggest loser on the week with a -4.48% decline.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (76 percent) and Silver (74 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.4 percent)
Silver (74.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (71.4 percent)
Copper (57.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (59.5 percent)
Platinum (51.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (58.0 percent)
Palladium (76.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (78.2 percent)
Steel (60.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.6 percent)

Palladium & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (8 percent) and Gold (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-15 percent), Platinum (-14 percent) and Copper (-13 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (3.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.4 percent)
Silver (-15.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-23.9 percent)
Copper (-12.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.1 percent)
Platinum (-13.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.5 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.4 percent)
Steel (-6.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 212,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 229,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.8	15.2	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	72.2	4.3
– Net Position:	212,590	-249,965	37,375
– Gross Longs:	275,277	66,670	56,098
– Gross Shorts:	62,687	316,635	18,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	32.3	99.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-4.2	6.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.0	28.5	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	70.5	6.9
– Net Position:	46,549	-66,675	20,126
– Gross Longs:	68,102	45,127	31,016
– Gross Shorts:	21,553	111,802	10,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	21.2	68.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	14.2	-4.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,179 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	35.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	53.2	4.9
– Net Position:	26,032	-35,365	9,333
– Gross Longs:	56,691	68,369	18,867
– Gross Shorts:	30,659	103,734	9,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	40.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	4.9	47.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	19.8	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	43.8	5.0
– Net Position:	15,050	-20,674	5,624
– Gross Longs:	49,269	17,034	9,912
– Gross Shorts:	34,219	37,708	4,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	46.6	63.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	12.7	0.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.2	32.8	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.4	24.6	5.3
– Net Position:	-3,734	1,679	2,055
– Gross Longs:	8,040	6,719	3,137
– Gross Shorts:	11,774	5,040	1,082
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	10.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-11.5	19.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 60 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	76.6	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	74.6	1.1
– Net Position:	-658	478	180
– Gross Longs:	4,386	17,905	445
– Gross Shorts:	5,044	17,427	265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	40.2	59.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.0	-13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

23 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by gains in 5-Year Bond & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (57,986 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (55,058 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (21,171 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (15,722 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (9,751 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-85,699 contracts), the Fed Funds (-83,387 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-33,030 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (-3,293 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Weekly Price Changes led by US Treasury Bonds

The weekly price performance for the major U.S. bond markets showed slight increases across the board for the most part. The long U.S. Treasury bonds led the last 5 days price changes with a gain of 0.75% followed by the 10-Year Notes which rose by 0.57%. The 5-Year Bond was up by 0.40% while the 2-Year Bond was slightly higher by just 0.22%. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was up by 0.14% while the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate and the Fed Funds were virtually unchanged as well.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (80 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (66 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (22.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (65.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (62.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (80.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (92.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (65.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (61.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (41.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (45.7 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (33 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-62 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-62.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-43.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-8.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-4.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-11.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-17.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (33.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (26.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (14.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (20.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -317,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -83,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -233,667 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	71.0	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	57.3	2.3
– Net Position:	-317,054	319,912	-2,858
– Gross Longs:	244,310	1,659,279	51,339
– Gross Shorts:	561,364	1,339,367	54,197
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.4	65.2	-10.7

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -368,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -85,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -282,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	56.7	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	53.8	0.5
– Net Position:	-368,146	358,345	9,801
– Gross Longs:	1,768,279	7,024,134	66,827
– Gross Shorts:	2,136,425	6,665,789	57,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	58.1	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-12.7	-14.5

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	66.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.1	0.0
– Net Position:	-12,930	8,580	4,350
– Gross Longs:	229,471	969,517	4,631
– Gross Shorts:	242,401	960,937	281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	16.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	33.7	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.3	-33.3	1.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,324,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 55,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,379,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	79.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	52.5	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,324,539	1,202,916	121,623
– Gross Longs:	512,267	3,582,207	258,933
– Gross Shorts:	1,836,806	2,379,291	137,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	86.6	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	8.4	-7.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,508,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 57,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,566,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	82.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	51.4	3.7
– Net Position:	-2,508,383	2,310,706	197,677
– Gross Longs:	539,075	6,090,238	471,602
– Gross Shorts:	3,047,458	3,779,532	273,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	97.7	86.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-1.6	4.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -945,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -942,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	62.4	6.3
– Net Position:	-945,516	826,011	119,505
– Gross Longs:	523,308	4,158,543	453,913
– Gross Shorts:	1,468,824	3,332,532	334,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.9	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	13.0	4.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -339,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -360,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	77.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	61.6	11.2
– Net Position:	-339,150	385,087	-45,937
– Gross Longs:	308,607	1,919,822	234,113
– Gross Shorts:	647,757	1,534,735	280,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	77.3	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-22.7	13.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	75.6	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	79.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-51,043	-62,680	113,723
– Gross Longs:	144,976	1,367,940	239,442
– Gross Shorts:	196,019	1,430,620	125,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.6	20.8	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-27.2	34.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -242,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,030 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -209,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	81.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	70.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-242,162	230,415	11,747
– Gross Longs:	129,418	1,647,663	188,953
– Gross Shorts:	371,580	1,417,248	177,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	30.4	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	-2.7	27.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

23 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bet Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were mixed this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while five markets had lower speculator contracts and one market had no change.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (35,321 contracts) with Corn (27,964 contracts), Soybean Meal (10,184 contracts), Cotton (3,334 contracts) and Coffee (2,458 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-15,862 contracts), Wheat (-4,572 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,218 contracts), Sugar (-1,781 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,720 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Live Cattle (0 contracts) showed not change on the week which is extremely rare and could likely be revised going forward.

Coffee leads price changes followed by Cocoa

Price changes for the soft commodities markets over the last five days saw just about all of them higher on the week. Coffee led with a huge weekly gain of 14.49%, followed by Cocoa which rose by over 11%. Soybean Meal was up by almost 6% on the week, Live Cattle rose by over 4%, followed by Soybean Oil which was up by 3%, and Lean Hogs which rose by over 2%.

Cotton and Corn also were higher by just over a percent, while Soybeans increased by 1%. Wheat prices were unchanged for the week, while Sugar was the only market that saw a decline with a -0.45% reduction.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (83 percent) and Lean Hogs (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (70 percent), Soybeans (56 percent) and Coffee (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent), Soybean Meal (15 percent), Cotton (16 percent) and the Wheat (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (21.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.1 percent)
Sugar (1.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.4 percent)
Coffee (53.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (51.3 percent)
Soybeans (55.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (46.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (69.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (78.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.8 percent)
Live Cattle (82.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (79.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (83.1 percent)
Cotton (16.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.4 percent)
Cocoa (22.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (24.0 percent)
Wheat (19.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.5 percent)

Soybean Meal & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (14 percent) and Corn (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-16 percent), Soybean Oil (-5 percent) and Soybeans (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.0 percent)
Sugar (-2.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-0.4 percent)
Coffee (-0.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-2.7 percent)
Soybeans (-4.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-14.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.8 percent)
Live Cattle (4.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-15.7 percent)
Cotton (-3.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-6.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.2 percent)
Wheat (-25.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-15.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -105,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	45.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	37.7	10.2
– Net Position:	-105,210	123,955	-18,745
– Gross Longs:	334,720	714,119	141,542
– Gross Shorts:	439,930	590,164	160,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	76.0	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-6.3	6.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -70,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	53.5	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	45.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-70,293	72,429	-2,136
– Gross Longs:	193,091	482,317	69,614
– Gross Shorts:	263,384	409,888	71,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	96.0	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-0.5	16.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	40.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	60.4	3.9
– Net Position:	28,660	-30,356	1,696
– Gross Longs:	48,952	61,658	7,632
– Gross Shorts:	20,292	92,014	5,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	48.0	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-0.4	12.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 35,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	53.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.3	7.3
– Net Position:	19,746	-4,205	-15,541
– Gross Longs:	155,697	481,033	49,550
– Gross Shorts:	135,951	485,238	65,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	42.9	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.9	0.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	43.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	53.6	4.4
– Net Position:	50,207	-59,523	9,316
– Gross Longs:	141,004	268,812	36,141
– Gross Shorts:	90,797	328,335	26,825
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	31.3	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	4.7	-1.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -48,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	50.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	45.2	5.2
– Net Position:	-48,128	31,206	16,922
– Gross Longs:	115,221	326,017	50,621
– Gross Shorts:	163,349	294,811	33,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	87.3	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-12.0	-35.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 106,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	28.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	50.6	13.0
– Net Position:	106,141	-84,582	-21,559
– Gross Longs:	186,130	110,318	28,487
– Gross Shorts:	79,989	194,900	50,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	19.3	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.9	2.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 69,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	28.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	47.6	7.4
– Net Position:	69,709	-64,123	-5,586
– Gross Longs:	148,031	93,494	18,865
– Gross Shorts:	78,322	157,617	24,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	20.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.3	6.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -35,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	46.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	32.2	5.0
– Net Position:	-35,105	35,326	-221
– Gross Longs:	67,937	113,021	11,819
– Gross Shorts:	103,042	77,695	12,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	84.9	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	3.0	1.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	40.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	58.5	7.7
– Net Position:	12,029	-16,261	4,232
– Gross Longs:	26,611	37,589	11,283
– Gross Shorts:	14,582	53,850	7,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	77.3	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	0.3	3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -93,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	39.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	20.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-93,618	92,339	1,279
– Gross Longs:	129,713	195,592	36,833
– Gross Shorts:	223,331	103,253	35,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	81.8	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	20.8	51.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

17 Aug

Speculators push Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (14,984 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (783 contracts), Bitcoin (759 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (146 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-10,657 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,772 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,345 contracts), the British Pound (-5,790 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,816 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-666 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-528 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

Leading the speculator changes this week for the major currency markets was the Brazilian Real, which saw a gain of almost 15,000 speculator contracts on the week. This was the second straight week of gains for the Brazilian Real and the third time out of the last four weeks that speculator bets have increased. Overall, the Real position is at +39,582 contracts, which is the best mark over the last five weeks. The Real has been at least +20,000 or above speculator contracts for the last 24 weeks in a row.

The Brazilian Real exchange rate versus the U.S. Dollar rose for a second straight week this week and continues to be in an uptrend after falling to a record low to end December. Overall, for the year of 2025, the Brazilian Real is up by over 12% while since the December bottoming, the Brazilian Real is up by over 16.65%.

Next up, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a small edge higher in their weekly speculator bets. The U.S. Dollar Index speculator positions rose by 783 contracts this week following two weeks of decreases. At the moment, the U.S. Dollar Index standing is at -6,247 contracts, and overall the USD positioning has now been in a negative or bearish level for nine consecutive weeks with a speculator strength score of just 1.8% (out of a 0 to 100 range), illustrating the current weakness of the U.S. Dollar.

In the exchange rate markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell for a second straight week and closed the week at 97.695 exchange rate. The dollar had rebounded all the way up to the 100 level a couple of weeks ago but found resistance and got pushed back down. Overall, since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index is down by over 12%.

British Pound Sterling led weekly market prices

The major currency market prices did not see much movement this week with no currency rising or falling by over 1%. The leader in price gains was the British Pound Sterling which was higher by 0.78% on the week. The Euro came in next with a rise of 0.50%, followed by the Brazilian Real at 0.44%. Bitcoin was higher by 0.42%, the Japanese Yen was slightly higher by 0.35%, followed by the Swiss Franc at 0.20%.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar was slightly lower at -0.23%, followed by the US Dollar Index, which saw a dip by -0.33%. The Canadian Dollar was at -0.41%, the New Zealand Dollar at -0.43%, and the biggest loser in the week was the Mexican Peso at -0.77%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (77 percent) and the EuroFX (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (71 percent), Mexican Peso (60 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.0 percent)
EuroFX (72.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (71.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (58.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.5 percent)
Bitcoin (37.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.9 percent)

Bitcoin, Peso & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (21 percent), the Mexican Peso (3 percent) and the EuroFX (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-13 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.3 percent)
EuroFX (3.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-33.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-32.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.3 percent)
Bitcoin (21.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	37.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.4	20.5	10.1
– Net Position:	-6,247	5,122	1,125
– Gross Longs:	12,729	11,370	4,202
– Gross Shorts:	18,976	6,248	3,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	96.4	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.0	26.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 115,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	55.5	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	75.8	5.4
– Net Position:	115,431	-167,063	51,632
– Gross Longs:	246,299	458,037	96,093
– Gross Shorts:	130,868	625,100	44,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	24.3	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.2	-3.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	50.5	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.2	34.1	12.4
– Net Position:	-39,093	35,517	3,576
– Gross Longs:	73,736	109,217	30,321
– Gross Shorts:	112,829	73,700	26,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	78.6	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.5	32.9	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	41.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	63.0	10.1
– Net Position:	74,234	-73,895	-339
– Gross Longs:	164,693	147,170	35,172
– Gross Shorts:	90,459	221,065	35,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	32.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.4	-53.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	75.5	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	34.2	22.7
– Net Position:	-28,043	33,224	-5,181
– Gross Longs:	6,091	60,689	13,086
– Gross Shorts:	34,134	27,465	18,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	53.7	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	18.7	-31.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -90,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	73.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	31.3	12.1
– Net Position:	-90,077	93,571	-3,494
– Gross Longs:	20,898	162,833	23,352
– Gross Shorts:	110,975	69,262	26,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	52.8	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	14.0	-17.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -87,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	66.8	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.3	17.6	11.9
– Net Position:	-87,905	84,233	3,672
– Gross Longs:	25,631	114,396	24,097
– Gross Shorts:	113,536	30,163	20,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	80.1	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.9	-1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	45.9	10.2
– Net Position:	-4,687	5,799	-1,112
– Gross Longs:	11,160	27,937	3,806
– Gross Shorts:	15,847	22,138	4,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	40.7	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	13.0	-34.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 61,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.4	37.2	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	72.8	1.6
– Net Position:	61,239	-64,848	3,609
– Gross Longs:	106,539	67,876	6,499
– Gross Shorts:	45,300	132,724	2,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	40.9	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.6	-9.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	34.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	76.4	0.8
– Net Position:	39,582	-43,069	3,487
– Gross Longs:	59,388	35,788	4,287
– Gross Shorts:	19,806	78,857	800
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	22.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	8.1	14.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.2	4.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.8	4.5	3.6
– Net Position:	-742	118	624
– Gross Longs:	23,438	1,371	1,624
– Gross Shorts:	24,180	1,253	1,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	59.2	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-26.4	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

17 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 12th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an increase by 22 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 42,312 net contracts this week with a gain of 8,476 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is now at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the percent strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 7,794 net contracts this week with a weekly increase by 1,940 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level is at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 7 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -209,132 net contracts this week with a rise of 19,235 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position rounds out the top four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 73,927 net contracts this week with a small boost by 789 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 106,141 net contracts this week with a dip of -234 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level sits at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,566,369 net contracts this week with a drop by -29,492 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -51 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 116,742 net contracts this week with a reduction by -25,087 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week with the USD Index speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -6,247 net contracts this week with a gain of 783 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the speculator strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -68,512 net contracts this week with a boost by 8,460 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -8 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,379,597 net contracts this week with a drop by -54,074 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

17 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (7,525 contracts) with Platinum (1,126 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-7,565 contracts), Silver (-6,390 contracts), Palladium (-1,161 contracts) and with Steel (-626 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Weekly Metals Performance

The metals markets on the week were mostly lower as 4 out of the 6 markets saw declining prices. Platinum led the week with a 0.58% increase, while Copper rose by 0.54%. Palladium was lower by -0.5%, Silver was down by -1.09% and Gold was down by -1.80%. Steel was the biggest loser on the week with a -3.33% decrease.

In the longer term, over the last 90 days, all these markets are higher, with Copper seeing just a 4.65% rise and is the smallest gainer over 90 days. Palladium, Silver, and Steel are all up by over 20% in the last 90 days, while Gold is up by 12.32%. Platinum is the biggest mover over the last 90 days with a gain of 42.67%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (78 percent) and Silver (71 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.2 percent)
Silver (71.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.3 percent)
Copper (59.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.5 percent)
Platinum (58.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.4 percent)
Palladium (78.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.9 percent)
Steel (59.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.0 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (10 percent) and Palladium (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-11 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.0 percent)
Silver (-23.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.4 percent)
Copper (-5.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.1 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.2 percent)
Palladium (7.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.3 percent)
Steel (-8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 229,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 237,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.6	14.2	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	73.2	4.5
– Net Position:	229,485	-263,065	33,580
– Gross Longs:	288,115	63,427	53,656
– Gross Shorts:	58,630	326,492	20,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	27.6	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-9.7	-1.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 44,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	26.4	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	68.9	6.7
– Net Position:	44,268	-66,421	22,153
– Gross Longs:	66,252	41,331	32,647
– Gross Shorts:	21,984	107,752	10,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	21.5	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	19.9	4.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	33.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	52.6	4.7
– Net Position:	28,211	-38,033	9,822
– Gross Longs:	58,802	63,855	19,016
– Gross Shorts:	30,591	101,888	9,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	37.7	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	-0.6	37.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.1	19.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	47.2	5.4
– Net Position:	17,788	-23,015	5,227
– Gross Longs:	47,458	15,571	9,606
– Gross Shorts:	29,670	38,586	4,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.0	41.3	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	11.5	-3.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,335 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	34.1	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	26.4	5.5
– Net Position:	-3,496	1,558	1,938
– Gross Longs:	8,005	6,891	3,049
– Gross Shorts:	11,501	5,333	1,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	9.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-10.2	14.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	77.3	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	75.0	1.0
– Net Position:	-718	501	217
– Gross Longs:	4,023	17,306	444
– Gross Shorts:	4,741	16,805	227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	40.3	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	8.9	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

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