COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 60

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Currencies: January 31st data shows Speculators raised Euro & New Zealand Dollar bets

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher through January 31st as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (16,160 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (6,212 contracts), Canadian Dollar (528 contracts), British Pound (5,617 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,470 contracts), Australian Dollar (2,579 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,194 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,374 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (1,575 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets for that week were the Brazilian Real (-1,188 contracts) and Bitcoin (-362 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	38,140	41	16,537	53	-19,776	44	3,239	52
EUR	796,738	100	150,509	81	-203,589	18	53,080	64
GBP	196,113	35	-18,317	53	28,668	54	-10,351	38
JPY	168,540	31	-20,060	57	18,179	45	1,881	57
CHF	38,345	30	-8,314	33	11,816	64	-3,502	46
CAD	140,167	24	-30,184	6	27,637	92	2,547	35
AUD	136,304	34	-30,592	56	23,162	36	7,430	71
NZD	34,587	17	8,386	77	-8,813	26	427	57
MXN	285,481	90	-45,270	9	40,804	89	4,466	84
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	72,096	70	21,597	69	-22,343	32	746	70
Bitcoin	17,542	94	-1,799	46	920	0	879	33

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (81 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (77 percent) led the currency markets that week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Japanese Yen (57 percent) and the Australian Dollar (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Swiss Franc (33 percent) and Bitcoin (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (50.2 percent)
EuroFX (81.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (53.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (56.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (55.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (32.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (29.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (56.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (54.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (76.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (60.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (70.3 percent)
Bitcoin (45.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.9 percent)

Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen topped the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (21 percent) and the Japanese Yen (13 percent) led the six weeks trends for the currencies. The New Zealand Dollar (5 percent), the Mexican Peso (4 percent) and the EuroFX (3 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-37 percent) led the downside trend scores with the Swiss Franc (-11 percent), British Pound (-11 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-17.7 percent)
EuroFX (2.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-11.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-3.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (3.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-42.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-36.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-24.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 16,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly gain of 1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.6	2.7	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	54.6	8.0
– Net Position:	16,537	-19,776	3,239
– Gross Longs:	29,221	1,042	6,309
– Gross Shorts:	12,684	20,818	3,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	44.4	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.7	-2.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 150,509 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 16,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	55.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	80.9	5.3
– Net Position:	150,509	-203,589	53,080
– Gross Longs:	246,755	440,756	95,671
– Gross Shorts:	96,246	644,345	42,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	18.3	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-5.0	14.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -18,317 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 5,617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	66.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	51.9	17.7
– Net Position:	-18,317	28,668	-10,351
– Gross Longs:	36,234	130,370	24,459
– Gross Shorts:	54,551	101,702	34,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	53.6	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.9	-6.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -20,060 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 1,575 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	67.9	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	57.1	17.3
– Net Position:	-20,060	18,179	1,881
– Gross Longs:	22,550	114,423	31,108
– Gross Shorts:	42,610	96,244	29,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	44.5	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-13.4	13.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -8,314 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 1,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	55.1	30.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	24.2	39.3
– Net Position:	-8,314	11,816	-3,502
– Gross Longs:	5,664	21,109	11,549
– Gross Shorts:	13,978	9,293	15,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	64.5	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.0	-8.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -30,184 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	55.1	23.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	35.4	22.0
– Net Position:	-30,184	27,637	2,547
– Gross Longs:	26,404	77,299	33,382
– Gross Shorts:	56,588	49,662	30,835
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	91.8	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.9	-2.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -30,592 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly gain of 2,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	53.4	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	36.4	12.6
– Net Position:	-30,592	23,162	7,430
– Gross Longs:	36,337	72,741	24,573
– Gross Shorts:	66,929	49,579	17,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	36.1	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-11.4	28.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 8,386 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 6,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	39.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	65.3	12.3
– Net Position:	8,386	-8,813	427
– Gross Longs:	15,376	13,762	4,674
– Gross Shorts:	6,990	22,575	4,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	25.7	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-2.5	-11.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -45,270 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 3,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	41.9	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.8	27.6	1.2
– Net Position:	-45,270	40,804	4,466
– Gross Longs:	156,950	119,480	7,841
– Gross Shorts:	202,220	78,676	3,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	89.2	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-3.9	-6.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 21,597 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -1,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	39.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	70.5	4.2
– Net Position:	21,597	-22,343	746
– Gross Longs:	39,609	28,490	3,776
– Gross Shorts:	18,012	50,833	3,030
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	31.7	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-19.5	-8.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -1,799 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.5	7.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.8	2.1	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,799	920	879
– Gross Longs:	13,599	1,293	1,635
– Gross Shorts:	15,398	373	756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	100.0	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.9	76.3	9.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

25 Feb

COT Metals Update: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC’s up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date soon.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower on January 31st as two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (2,608 contracts) with Silver (1,632 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-4,124 contracts), Copper (-2,955 contracts) and Palladium (-974 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	471,642	16	160,281	36	-180,520	63	20,239	31
Silver	138,263	14	27,316	44	-40,434	57	13,118	37
Copper	224,824	61	17,215	50	-24,414	48	7,199	67
Palladium	11,245	34	-4,271	0	4,632	100	-361	20
Platinum	69,121	40	16,137	33	-22,213	65	6,076	49

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (50 percent) led the metals markets for that week. Silver (44 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) came in at the lowest strength level and was in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (35.0 percent)
Silver (44.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (42.4 percent)
Copper (50.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.4 percent)
Platinum (33.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.4 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.3 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (13 percent) led the six weeks trends for metals. Gold (10 percent) was the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-17 percent) led the downside trend scores with Platinum (-12 percent) and Silver (-2.7 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.6 percent)
Silver (-2.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.2 percent)
Copper (13.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.0 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.9 percent)
Palladium (-17.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-25.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 160,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly increase of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	25.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	63.7	5.0
– Net Position:	160,281	-180,520	20,239
– Gross Longs:	256,417	120,147	43,984
– Gross Shorts:	96,136	300,667	23,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	63.4	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-11.7	16.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 27,316 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.7	34.7	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	64.0	8.4
– Net Position:	27,316	-40,434	13,118
– Gross Longs:	54,867	47,997	24,665
– Gross Shorts:	27,551	88,431	11,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	57.0	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	-0.1	13.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 17,215 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -2,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	36.3	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	47.2	5.6
– Net Position:	17,215	-24,414	7,199
– Gross Longs:	85,410	81,694	19,764
– Gross Shorts:	68,195	106,108	12,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	48.1	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-16.2	25.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 16,137 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly reduction of -4,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.8	33.0	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	65.1	3.6
– Net Position:	16,137	-22,213	6,076
– Gross Longs:	35,098	22,808	8,577
– Gross Shorts:	18,961	45,021	2,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	65.5	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	10.0	8.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -4,271 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly reduction of -974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	63.4	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	22.2	14.2
– Net Position:	-4,271	4,632	-361
– Gross Longs:	1,792	7,131	1,238
– Gross Shorts:	6,063	2,499	1,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	19.5	-19.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

25 Feb

COT Bonds: January 31st data shows Speculators cut back on their bond bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were sharply lower for that week as just one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds with a gain of 15,702 contracts.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-100,142 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-94,219 contracts), Ultra Treasury Bonds (-17,997 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-7,222 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (-3,260 contracts), the Eurodollar (-12,402 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (-13,650 contracts) also registering lower bets through January 31st.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,879,918	0	-1,026,275	34	1,226,679	63	-200,404	60
FedFunds	1,889,652	79	-20,128	37	50,487	66	-30,359	0
2-Year	2,428,703	29	-577,165	1	552,882	94	24,283	63
Long T-Bond	1,226,430	48	-199,076	20	172,835	72	26,241	73
10-Year	4,151,853	75	-555,471	0	623,943	96	-68,472	64
5-Year	4,177,919	61	-732,956	0	722,945	94	10,011	84

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (37 percent) and the Eurodollar (34 percent) led the bond markets for that week. The US Treasury Bonds (20 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra Treasury Bonds (0 percent), 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent), 2-Year Bond (1.4 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (19.8 percent) came in with the lowest strength levels and all were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (37.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (19.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
Eurodollar (34.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (34.5 percent)

Fed Funds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (8 percent) and the Eurodollar (2 percent) led the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-32 percent) led the downside trend scores with the 10-Year Bonds (-32 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (8.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (4.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-10.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-32.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-6.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-31.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-21.5 percent)
Eurodollar (1.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (11.1 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -1,026,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly fall of -12,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,013,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	68.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	47.6	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,026,275	1,226,679	-200,404
– Gross Longs:	480,357	4,023,635	289,015
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,632	2,796,956	489,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.3	63.1	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-1.8	3.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -20,128 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 15,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	75.9	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	73.3	3.4
– Net Position:	-20,128	50,487	-30,359
– Gross Longs:	185,358	1,435,042	34,298
– Gross Shorts:	205,486	1,384,555	64,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	66.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-5.1	-55.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -577,165 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -100,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -477,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	83.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	60.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-577,165	552,882	24,283
– Gross Longs:	163,860	2,027,636	198,658
– Gross Shorts:	741,025	1,474,754	174,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	94.3	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	6.6	12.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -732,956 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decrease of -94,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -638,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	84.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	67.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-732,956	722,945	10,011
– Gross Longs:	224,985	3,538,717	340,298
– Gross Shorts:	957,941	2,815,772	330,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	94.2	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	0.6	17.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -555,471 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decrease of -13,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -541,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	79.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	64.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-555,471	623,943	-68,472
– Gross Longs:	367,733	3,313,634	349,227
– Gross Shorts:	923,204	2,689,691	417,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.0	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.4	23.7	9.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -133,133 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly fall of -7,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -125,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	78.4	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	62.4	17.3
– Net Position:	-133,133	233,431	-100,298
– Gross Longs:	148,741	1,144,072	152,412
– Gross Shorts:	281,874	910,641	252,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	9.8	-9.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -199,076 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly fall of -3,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -195,816 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	80.3	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	66.2	11.9
– Net Position:	-199,076	172,835	26,241
– Gross Longs:	58,575	984,869	172,662
– Gross Shorts:	257,651	812,034	146,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	72.2	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	23.6	-6.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -433,360 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly fall of -17,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -415,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.4	85.2	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	58.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-433,360	393,878	39,482
– Gross Longs:	48,954	1,234,463	162,321
– Gross Shorts:	482,314	840,585	122,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	39.8	-8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

25 Feb

COT Soft Commodities: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher for the week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (61,988 contracts), Soybeans (23,176 contracts), Coffee (20,847 contracts), Corn (19,443 contracts), Live Cattle (10,995 contracts), Wheat (8,260 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,045 contracts) and Cocoa (218 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Lean Hogs (-6,760 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-7,879 contracts) and Cotton (-928 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,726,378	29	243,820	10	-266,622	89	22,802	37
Gold	471,642	16	160,281	36	-180,520	63	20,239	31
Silver	138,263	14	27,316	44	-40,434	57	13,118	37
Copper	224,824	61	17,215	50	-24,414	48	7,199	67
Palladium	11,245	34	-4,271	0	4,632	100	-361	20
Platinum	69,121	40	16,137	33	-22,213	65	6,076	49
Natural Gas	1,146,709	38	-169,214	24	134,013	76	35,201	63
Brent	156,929	16	-43,407	26	39,572	70	3,835	61
Heating Oil	265,444	22	21,747	74	-45,428	23	23,681	80
Soybeans	689,806	25	178,398	67	-137,153	46	-41,245	1
Corn	1,298,164	14	296,812	68	-225,622	40	-71,190	2
Coffee	221,894	29	-1,881	25	-926	75	2,807	39
Sugar	995,391	55	247,072	79	-292,448	19	45,376	64
Wheat	350,871	29	-40,060	7	41,564	90	-1,504	100

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (96 percent) and Sugar (79 percent) led the softs markets for the week. Live Cattle (76 percent), Corn (68 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Cotton (20 percent) and the Soybean Oil (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.5 percent)
Sugar (78.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (57.6 percent)
Coffee (25.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.1 percent)
Soybeans (66.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (96.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.3 percent)
Live Cattle (76.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (7.6 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.5 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Live Cattle & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (26 percent) and Soybeans (17 percent) led the six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cocoa (7 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-42 percent) led the downside trend scores with Soybean Oil (-23 percent), Wheat (-3 percent) and Cotton (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.3 percent)
Sugar (4.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.6 percent)
Soybeans (17.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.5 percent)
Live Cattle (26.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (9.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-41.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-34.2 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.6 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 296,812 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly boost of 19,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 277,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	42.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	59.4	14.4
– Net Position:	296,812	-225,622	-71,190
– Gross Longs:	407,766	545,068	115,712
– Gross Shorts:	110,954	770,690	186,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	39.8	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-9.5	-20.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 247,072 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 61,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 185,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	39.2	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	68.5	5.7
– Net Position:	247,072	-292,448	45,376
– Gross Longs:	333,718	389,834	102,320
– Gross Shorts:	86,646	682,282	56,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	19.3	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-2.7	-5.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -1,881 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 20,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	46.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	46.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,881	-926	2,807
– Gross Longs:	45,937	102,565	10,630
– Gross Shorts:	47,818	103,491	7,823
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	75.0	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-4.7	31.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 178,398 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 23,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	46.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	66.7	12.6
– Net Position:	178,398	-137,153	-41,245
– Gross Longs:	222,823	323,166	45,644
– Gross Shorts:	44,425	460,319	86,889
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.8	46.3	1.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-14.8	-14.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 31,371 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -7,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	52.5	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	61.2	7.0
– Net Position:	31,371	-36,797	5,426
– Gross Longs:	77,553	223,986	35,438
– Gross Shorts:	46,182	260,783	30,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	77.0	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	24.7	-22.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 157,830 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 8,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	33.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.0	73.9	7.3
– Net Position:	157,830	-173,741	15,911
– Gross Longs:	174,746	141,045	47,162
– Gross Shorts:	16,916	314,786	31,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.0	5.7	15.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-5.3	-31.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 77,223 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly boost of 10,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	28.2	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	51.5	12.4
– Net Position:	77,223	-72,958	-4,265
– Gross Longs:	126,874	88,274	34,568
– Gross Shorts:	49,651	161,232	38,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	13.4	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.0	-27.2	-5.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -3,594 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -6,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	36.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	35.0	11.8
– Net Position:	-3,594	3,412	182
– Gross Longs:	67,149	78,668	25,530
– Gross Shorts:	70,743	75,256	25,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.9	31.6	60.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 16,905 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	47.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	57.3	5.4
– Net Position:	16,905	-20,488	3,583
– Gross Longs:	61,398	100,108	14,890
– Gross Shorts:	44,493	120,596	11,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	78.7	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-1.2	7.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 25,159 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	47.4	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	56.6	3.2
– Net Position:	25,159	-27,818	2,659
– Gross Longs:	93,440	142,793	12,252
– Gross Shorts:	68,281	170,611	9,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	59.9	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-5.9	-14.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -40,060 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 8,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	38.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	26.4	10.7
– Net Position:	-40,060	41,564	-1,504
– Gross Longs:	89,996	134,236	35,913
– Gross Shorts:	130,056	92,672	37,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	90.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	0.5	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

25 Feb

COT Stocks: January 31st data shows Nasdaq-Mini and Russell-Mini led Speculator bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were mixed as four out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (9,403 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,377 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (2,632 contracts) and DowJones-Mini (538 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets for the week were the S&P500-Mini (-13,266 contracts) and VIX (-13,769 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-638 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-360 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,061,419	4	-222,257	15	234,786	82	-12,529	24
Nikkei 225	14,330	10	-5,072	53	5,452	57	-380	24
Nasdaq-Mini	278,449	59	-15,858	66	32,053	46	-16,195	21
DowJones-Mini	80,386	43	-9,428	33	12,077	71	-2,649	27
VIX	310,475	42	-66,918	66	69,707	32	-2,789	78
Nikkei 225 Yen	36,496	13	9,112	62	-4,201	0	-4,911	70

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (66 percent) and the VIX (66 percent) led the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 Yen (62 percent) and Nikkei 225 (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (15.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (17.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (33.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (32.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (66.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (60.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (53.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (1.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (2.4 percent)

VIX led the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that just about all the markets had lower trend scores. The VIX was the only market with a score above 0 at a 0.2 percent trend score. The EAFE-Mini (-36.5 percent) had the lowest or most negative score that week followed by the S&P500-Mini (-11.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (0.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (20.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-11.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (4.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-11.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-24.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-2.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-10.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-36.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-23.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -66,918 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly lowering of -13,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	57.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	35.2	8.8
– Net Position:	-66,918	69,707	-2,789
– Gross Longs:	52,935	178,998	24,430
– Gross Shorts:	119,853	109,291	27,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	31.5	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-6.5	46.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -222,257 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly fall of -13,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	73.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.3	12.5
– Net Position:	-222,257	234,786	-12,529
– Gross Longs:	253,439	1,519,069	245,628
– Gross Shorts:	475,696	1,284,283	258,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.0	81.6	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	10.0	-2.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -9,428 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly advance of 538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	52.1	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	37.1	20.1
– Net Position:	-9,428	12,077	-2,649
– Gross Longs:	21,339	41,874	13,546
– Gross Shorts:	30,767	29,797	16,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	71.1	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	2.7	6.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -15,858 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly boost of 9,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	65.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	54.2	16.9
– Net Position:	-15,858	32,053	-16,195
– Gross Longs:	59,439	183,098	30,935
– Gross Shorts:	75,297	151,045	47,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	46.2	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	20.5	-24.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -63,024 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly gain of 4,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	82.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	69.4	4.6
– Net Position:	-63,024	57,143	5,881
– Gross Longs:	42,702	356,143	25,493
– Gross Shorts:	105,726	299,000	19,612
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	62.7	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	0.1	12.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -5,072 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly fall of -360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	65.9	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	27.8	20.9
– Net Position:	-5,072	5,452	-380
– Gross Longs:	2,269	9,440	2,621
– Gross Shorts:	7,341	3,988	3,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.4	57.0	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	20.2	-24.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -34,840 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	87.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	82.0	1.3
– Net Position:	-34,840	20,734	14,106
– Gross Longs:	24,465	327,871	18,967
– Gross Shorts:	59,305	307,137	4,861
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	84.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.5	27.9	38.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

18 Feb

COT Data Releases are delayed for 3rd Week due to Cybersecurity event

By InvestMacro

The Commitment of Traders (COT) data that is published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) each week has been delayed once again for the third straight week. The delay is due to a recent cybersecurity event that happened in early February. The hack affected ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets) and has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported.

Here’s the latest CFTC comments:

“Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed.

“CFTC staff intends to resume publishing the CoT report as early as Friday, February 24, 2023. Staff will begin with the CoT report that was originally scheduled to be published on Friday, February 3, 2023. Thereafter, staff intends to sequentially issue the missed CoT reports in an expedited manner, subject to reporting firms submitting accurate and complete data.”

We will publish our InvestMacro COT articles, data tables and charts once data is released from the CFTC. Stay up to date with the weekly COT data by joining our email list here.

COT Updates Opinions

11 Feb

COT Data Releases delayed again this week due to cybersecurity event

The Commitment of Traders (COT) data that is published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) each week has been delayed for a second straight week.

This is due to a cybersecurity event that affected ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets).

Here’s the latest CFTC comments:

“Although the impact of the cyber-related incident at ION has been mitigated, firms that are responsible for reporting are continuing to experience some issues with respect to the submission of timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders report, that is produced by CFTC staff, will continue to be delayed until all trades can be reported. A report will be published upon receipt and validation of data from those firms.

“Further, CFTC staff recognizes there remain impacts to some reporting firms due to the incident at ION. Each affected reporting firm should continue their best efforts to expedite compliance obligations in preparing the daily large trader reports required under Part 17 of the Commission’s regulations, working with CFTC staff, to ensure timely compliance. A reporting firm should also file revised reports once the reporting firm’s systems are operational. CFTC staff will consider any necessary further action as appropriate.”

We will publish our InvestMacro COT articles, data tables and charts once the data is released from the CFTC. Stay up to date with the weekly COT data by joining our email list here.

COT Updates Opinions

29 Jan

Currency Speculators add to EuroFX bullish bets as EURUSD trades at 1.0900

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (7,365 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (1,805 contracts), Japanese Yen (1,326 contracts), British Pound (763 contracts), Brazilian Real (592 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (449 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-3,884 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,453 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,567 contracts), Bitcoin (-810 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-101 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the strength of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro. Large speculative positions rose this week by over +7,300 contracts and have risen in four out of the past six weeks. Euro weekly positions have now also been higher in sixteen out of the past twenty-one weeks, going from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to this week’s total net position of +134,349 contracts.

The Euro speculator positions have now been above +100,000 contracts for the past thirteen consecutive weeks which is the best streak since early in 2021. The Euro strength index, a measure of positions compared to the past three year’s range, has now moved up to a level of 76 percent strength of last three years.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar hit it’s highest level this week since April above the 1.0900 exchange level. Since October, the Euro has now had higher weekly closes in eleven out of the past fifteen weeks and looks to soon make a run at the psychological 1.1000 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,233	48	15,163	50	-17,909	47	2,746	47
EUR	777,569	100	134,349	76	-186,450	23	52,101	62
GBP	194,051	33	-23,934	48	27,654	53	-3,720	51
JPY	173,321	34	-21,635	56	17,145	44	4,490	63
CHF	35,368	20	-9,508	29	11,565	64	-2,057	51
CAD	137,476	22	-30,712	5	29,159	93	1,553	33
AUD	129,490	29	-33,171	54	29,706	41	3,465	61
NZD	32,710	12	2,174	60	-4,241	36	2,067	75
MXN	272,655	83	-48,740	7	42,327	90	6,413	95
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	45,128	34	22,785	70	-23,618	30	833	71
Bitcoin	17,390	93	-1,437	52	912	0	525	25

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (60 percent), Japanese Yen (56 percent) and the Australian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (5 percent) and the Mexican Peso (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (29 percent) and the British Pound (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (50.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (47.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (55.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (54.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (54.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (70.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.7 percent)
Bitcoin (51.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.0 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) and the Brazilian Real (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (19 percent), the Swiss Franc (6 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-24 percent), the US Dollar Index (-18 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-17.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-19.2 percent)
EuroFX (3.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-40.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-42.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-12.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	2.4	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	45.8	7.0
– Net Position:	15,163	-17,909	2,746
– Gross Longs:	33,291	981	5,614
– Gross Shorts:	18,128	18,890	2,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.2	47.3	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	16.8	0.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 134,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	55.2	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	79.2	5.7
– Net Position:	134,349	-186,450	52,101
– Gross Longs:	237,743	429,253	96,793
– Gross Shorts:	103,394	615,703	44,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	23.1	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-8.2	31.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	65.6	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	51.3	15.5
– Net Position:	-23,934	27,654	-3,720
– Gross Longs:	34,756	127,207	26,309
– Gross Shorts:	58,690	99,553	30,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	52.9	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-2.5	3.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	65.4	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	55.6	15.3
– Net Position:	-21,635	17,145	4,490
– Gross Longs:	27,620	113,437	31,009
– Gross Shorts:	49,255	96,292	26,519
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	44.0	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-20.4	21.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	57.1	32.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	24.4	38.4
– Net Position:	-9,508	11,565	-2,057
– Gross Longs:	3,624	20,185	11,540
– Gross Shorts:	13,132	8,620	13,597
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	64.1	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-7.3	7.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -30,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	56.4	22.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	35.2	21.4
– Net Position:	-30,712	29,159	1,553
– Gross Longs:	25,978	77,571	30,927
– Gross Shorts:	56,690	48,412	29,374
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.2	93.0	33.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	3.5	-1.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	57.8	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	34.8	15.0
– Net Position:	-33,171	29,706	3,465
– Gross Longs:	29,466	74,818	22,903
– Gross Shorts:	62,637	45,112	19,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	41.0	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-9.8	20.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,058 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	50.9	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	63.9	9.2
– Net Position:	2,174	-4,241	2,067
– Gross Longs:	10,170	16,662	5,077
– Gross Shorts:	7,996	20,903	3,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	36.5	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-24.4	7.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	42.2	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.3	26.7	0.8
– Net Position:	-48,740	42,327	6,413
– Gross Longs:	148,265	115,053	8,628
– Gross Shorts:	197,005	72,726	2,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	90.3	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.6	39.2	5.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.1	13.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	65.3	6.1
– Net Position:	22,785	-23,618	833
– Gross Longs:	35,691	5,847	3,585
– Gross Shorts:	12,906	29,465	2,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.3	30.3	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-18.9	-14.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.0	7.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.2	2.6	5.4
– Net Position:	-1,437	912	525
– Gross Longs:	13,036	1,365	1,467
– Gross Shorts:	14,473	453	942
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	100.0	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	59.0	1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

29 Jan

COT Stock Markets: Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (17,827 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (647 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were MSCI EAFE-Mini (-5,924 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,628 contracts), Russell-Mini (-4,486 contracts), Nikkei 225 (-887 contracts) and the VIX (-794 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,024,437	2	-208,991	17	202,765	77	6,226	28
Nikkei 225	14,537	11	-4,712	55	5,546	57	-834	18
Nasdaq-Mini	273,887	56	-25,261	61	37,079	49	-11,818	30
DowJones-Mini	77,652	39	-9,966	28	12,227	73	-2,261	29
VIX	295,825	36	-53,149	76	58,259	24	-5,110	67
Nikkei 225 Yen	32,904	5	6,480	54	-3,912	0	-2,568	76

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (76 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (61 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (55 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (17 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (76.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (17.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (14.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (28.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (27.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (60.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (63.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (30.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (59.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.7 percent)

VIX & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (21 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (4 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-24 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (20.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (15.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-4.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (3.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-24.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-19.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-23.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-26.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	56.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	36.3	8.4
– Net Position:	-53,149	58,259	-5,110
– Gross Longs:	52,816	165,673	19,828
– Gross Shorts:	105,965	107,414	24,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	23.9	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-18.2	-12.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -208,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -226,818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	63.4	11.8
– Net Position:	-208,991	202,765	6,226
– Gross Longs:	250,474	1,485,629	244,122
– Gross Shorts:	459,465	1,282,864	237,896
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	77.3	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-1.3	-2.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,613 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	50.9	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	35.1	20.8
– Net Position:	-9,966	12,227	-2,261
– Gross Longs:	21,106	39,500	13,893
– Gross Shorts:	31,072	27,273	16,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	73.5	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-11.6	28.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	63.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	49.8	16.3
– Net Position:	-25,261	37,079	-11,818
– Gross Longs:	60,241	173,611	32,846
– Gross Shorts:	85,502	136,532	44,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.9	49.3	29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	30.7	-10.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -67,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	83.7	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	69.2	4.7
– Net Position:	-67,401	61,283	6,118
– Gross Longs:	37,737	354,541	26,065
– Gross Shorts:	105,138	293,258	19,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.3	65.8	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.0	-0.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	63.8	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	25.7	22.7
– Net Position:	-4,712	5,546	-834
– Gross Longs:	2,786	9,279	2,461
– Gross Shorts:	7,498	3,733	3,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.1	57.4	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	21.0	-26.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	89.8	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	82.7	1.2
– Net Position:	-34,202	27,075	7,127
– Gross Longs:	24,429	339,047	11,492
– Gross Shorts:	58,631	311,972	4,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	91.8	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	26.8	-21.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

29 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators cut back on Eurodollar bearish bets for 10th time in 11 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (50,405 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (41,918 contracts), the Eurodollar (39,979 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (3,236 contracts), and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (410 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-29,935 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-3,423 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (-14,352 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the continued improvement of the speculator positioning in the Eurodollar. Large speculative positions for the Eurodollar rose this week by almost +40,000 contracts and have now improved (or become less bearish) in ten out of the past eleven weeks. This recent improvement has taken +1,098,777 contracts off of the overall bearish position, going from a total bearish net position of -2,112,650 contracts on November 8th to this week’s total net position of -1,013,873 contracts (an improvement of approximately 50 percent).

Eurodollar futures contracts are one of the largest futures markets and are essentially a bet on short-term interest rates. As Eurodollar prices fall, the implied interest rises (and vice versa) and at this moment, the price of Eurodollar futures is approximately 95.00 for an implied interest rate of 5.00 percent.

The decrease in the bearish positioning of speculators suggests that traders are anticipating a possible peak has happened in the short-term interest rates. This is likely due to falling inflation and anticipation of the US Federal Reserve slowing their interest rate hikes.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,949,563	1	-1,013,873	34	1,212,772	63	-198,899	61
FedFunds	1,798,641	72	-35,830	35	61,847	67	-26,017	0
2-Year	2,416,615	29	-477,023	16	454,881	79	22,142	62
Long T-Bond	1,235,758	50	-195,816	21	155,710	66	40,106	84
10-Year	4,124,381	73	-541,821	0	598,839	93	-57,018	67
5-Year	4,162,628	61	-638,737	7	633,820	84	4,917	82

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (35 percent) and the Eurodollar (34 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent), the 5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (16.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.6 percent)
Eurodollar (34.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (33.8 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (11 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (7 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-23 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-0.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (6.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-2.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-22.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-24.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-22.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-6.3 percent)
Eurodollar (11.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (10.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,013,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 39,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,053,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	68.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	48.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,013,873	1,212,772	-198,899
– Gross Longs:	522,881	4,073,591	295,903
– Gross Shorts:	1,536,754	2,860,819	494,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	62.8	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-11.3	7.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -35,830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 50,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	75.4	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	72.0	3.2
– Net Position:	-35,830	61,847	-26,017
– Gross Longs:	174,466	1,356,289	31,773
– Gross Shorts:	210,296	1,294,442	57,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.2	67.4	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-2.6	-45.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -477,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -462,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	81.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	62.8	7.7
– Net Position:	-477,023	454,881	22,142
– Gross Longs:	186,740	1,972,486	207,471
– Gross Shorts:	663,763	1,517,605	185,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.2	79.5	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-9.7	8.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -638,737 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 41,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -680,655 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	83.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.6	8.4
– Net Position:	-638,737	633,820	4,917
– Gross Longs:	259,978	3,489,305	354,429
– Gross Shorts:	898,715	2,855,485	349,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	84.1	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-15.9	24.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -541,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -545,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	80.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	65.7	10.1
– Net Position:	-541,821	598,839	-57,018
– Gross Longs:	359,177	3,310,111	360,007
– Gross Shorts:	900,998	2,711,272	417,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	93.0	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.8	14.7	9.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -125,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -126,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	77.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	62.9	16.6
– Net Position:	-125,911	216,769	-90,858
– Gross Longs:	158,914	1,148,114	155,215
– Gross Shorts:	284,825	931,345	246,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	95.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	5.5	1.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -195,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -192,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	80.9	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	68.3	11.2
– Net Position:	-195,816	155,710	40,106
– Gross Longs:	51,463	1,000,159	178,920
– Gross Shorts:	247,279	844,449	138,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	66.1	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	28.3	-0.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -415,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -29,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -385,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.8	84.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	58.8	8.2
– Net Position:	-415,363	365,215	50,148
– Gross Longs:	53,821	1,203,706	166,548
– Gross Shorts:	469,184	838,491	116,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	100.0	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	30.9	-5.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

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