COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 6

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 10-Year & US Treasury Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (95,064 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (15,997 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7,419 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (7,304 contracts) showing positive weeks as well.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-246,502 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-117,224 contracts), the Fed Funds (-64,706 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-29,699 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-38,975 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (78 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (67 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (7 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (9 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (78.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (90.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (26.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (17.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (42.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (40.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (57.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (62.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (80.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (9.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (7.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (66.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (79.3 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (40 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-29 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-26 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-23 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (40.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (69.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-23.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (13.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-9.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-21.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-37.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-29.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-47.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-26.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-9.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 126,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -64,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	54.6	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	59.8	2.7
– Net Position:	126,765	-104,535	-22,230
– Gross Longs:	422,543	1,109,596	31,783
– Gross Shorts:	295,778	1,214,131	54,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.0	23.0	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-38.3	-12.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 121,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -246,502 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 368,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	58.3	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	59.6	0.3
– Net Position:	121,918	-127,329	5,411
– Gross Longs:	1,459,040	5,861,025	35,753
– Gross Shorts:	1,337,122	5,988,354	30,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	33.0	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.3	26.1	3.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -215,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -222,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	67.1	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	48.2	0.1
– Net Position:	-215,156	215,684	-528
– Gross Longs:	140,428	766,626	556
– Gross Shorts:	355,584	550,942	1,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	90.6	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	29.2	0.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,342,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -117,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,225,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	79.3	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	53.2	2.2
– Net Position:	-1,342,260	1,162,975	179,285
– Gross Longs:	557,715	3,535,657	276,550
– Gross Shorts:	1,899,975	2,372,682	97,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	87.4	92.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	25.6	3.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,630,024 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,600,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	84.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	60.8	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,630,024	1,461,880	168,144
– Gross Longs:	452,589	5,248,489	437,087
– Gross Shorts:	2,082,613	3,786,609	268,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	97.6	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-1.1	-13.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -865,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 95,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -960,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	78.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	62.4	7.2
– Net Position:	-865,065	747,361	117,704
– Gross Longs:	477,930	3,684,020	458,041
– Gross Shorts:	1,342,995	2,936,659	340,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	70.3	91.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-12.2	-7.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -75,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	73.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.6	12.8
– Net Position:	-75,048	151,418	-76,370
– Gross Longs:	355,872	1,610,178	204,283
– Gross Shorts:	430,920	1,458,760	280,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	46.2	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	6.4	-18.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -60,178 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,175 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	64.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	66.1	7.8
– Net Position:	-60,178	-30,073	90,251
– Gross Longs:	388,158	1,148,257	229,519
– Gross Shorts:	448,336	1,178,330	139,268
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	18.7	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	18.7	-19.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -321,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -38,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -282,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	80.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	61.7	10.0
– Net Position:	-321,226	318,542	2,684
– Gross Longs:	164,282	1,384,793	175,351
– Gross Shorts:	485,508	1,066,251	172,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	52.9	9.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.5	52.9	-35.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

19 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (7,337 contracts) with Live Cattle (6,658 contracts), Coffee (4,235 contracts), Cocoa (3,376 contracts), Sugar (2,387 contracts) and Cotton (999 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets were Corn (-41,223 contracts), Soybean Meal (-37,962 contracts), Soybeans (-14,193 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,454 contracts) and with Wheat (-216 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (91 percent) and Lean Hogs (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (70 percent), Wheat (60 percent) and Live Cattle (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (23 percent) and Soybeans (31 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (38.5 percent)
Sugar (38.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (37.8 percent)
Coffee (91.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.0 percent)
Soybeans (31.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (70.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (52.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (68.4 percent)
Live Cattle (56.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (48.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (74.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (67.1 percent)
Cotton (22.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.3 percent)
Cocoa (54.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.7 percent)
Wheat (60.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (60.4 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (47 percent) and Live Cattle (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (33 percent), Soybeans (23 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

There are no markets with negative or lower trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.5 percent)
Sugar (11.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.5 percent)
Coffee (2.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.1 percent)
Soybeans (22.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (31.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (33.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (49.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (13.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (34.0 percent)
Live Cattle (44.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.6 percent)
Cotton (17.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.5 percent)
Cocoa (11.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.9 percent)
Wheat (10.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (13.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -41,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	46.4	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	42.8	11.6
– Net Position:	-5,152	56,118	-50,966
– Gross Longs:	333,139	721,807	130,045
– Gross Shorts:	338,291	665,689	181,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	69.9	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-8.9	-24.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 105,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	46.9	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	64.8	5.5
– Net Position:	105,473	-145,332	39,859
– Gross Longs:	233,674	382,060	84,478
– Gross Shorts:	128,201	527,392	44,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	54.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-19.1	44.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	39.4	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	72.1	2.4
– Net Position:	66,950	-70,175	3,225
– Gross Longs:	79,366	84,833	8,415
– Gross Shorts:	12,416	155,008	5,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.1	8.4	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.3	6.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	60.1	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	50.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-65,379	94,150	-28,771
– Gross Longs:	154,755	569,890	48,476
– Gross Shorts:	220,134	475,740	77,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	72.0	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.8	-22.4	-16.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 52,805 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	48.8	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	60.2	5.2
– Net Position:	52,805	-57,777	4,972
– Gross Longs:	142,778	247,437	31,176
– Gross Shorts:	89,973	305,214	26,204
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	34.4	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.4	-31.9	13.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 61,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -37,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	42.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	58.2	4.9
– Net Position:	61,885	-88,822	26,937
– Gross Longs:	147,108	239,351	54,329
– Gross Shorts:	85,223	328,173	27,392
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	42.5	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-15.1	23.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 71,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	34.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	49.3	14.2
– Net Position:	71,418	-49,211	-22,207
– Gross Longs:	135,289	110,888	23,845
– Gross Shorts:	63,871	160,099	46,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	62.1	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.3	-37.4	-42.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.2	34.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	45.3	9.0
– Net Position:	40,642	-33,303	-7,339
– Gross Longs:	127,041	103,001	19,861
– Gross Shorts:	86,399	136,304	27,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	25.2	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.8	-50.4	-12.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	49.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	45.7	5.4
– Net Position:	-10,642	10,163	479
– Gross Longs:	64,409	123,139	13,752
– Gross Shorts:	75,051	112,976	13,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	77.2	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-17.1	8.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,936 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	33.9	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	68.6	3.3
– Net Position:	43,312	-49,419	6,107
– Gross Longs:	57,763	48,384	10,781
– Gross Shorts:	14,451	97,803	4,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	42.4	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-11.0	-3.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	36.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	32.1	8.7
– Net Position:	-13,714	18,433	-4,719
– Gross Longs:	108,406	146,209	30,075
– Gross Shorts:	122,120	127,776	34,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.2	39.0	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-11.4	5.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

19 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & Russell 2000 Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell 2000-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (33,779 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (21,330 contracts) and the VIX (3,330 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,891 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,773 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,570 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (81 percent) and S&P500-Mini (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (96.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (68.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (63.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (81.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (83.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (59.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (85.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (38.4 percent)

VIX & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (18 percent), the S&P500-Mini (11 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (24.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (25.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (11.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (9.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-38.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-12.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (17.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (13.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-5.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of 322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	39.7	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	40.9	7.2
– Net Position:	322	-4,011	3,689
– Gross Longs:	93,877	131,466	27,394
– Gross Shorts:	93,555	135,477	23,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-25.5	11.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 33,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,644 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	69.7	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	75.6	7.8
– Net Position:	28,135	-129,397	101,262
– Gross Longs:	350,227	1,522,232	271,343
– Gross Shorts:	322,092	1,651,629	170,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.9	22.0	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-11.3	2.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	55.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	73.3	13.2
– Net Position:	12,716	-15,665	2,949
– Gross Longs:	23,414	49,858	14,714
– Gross Shorts:	10,698	65,523	11,765
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	15.5	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-12.3	17.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	61.5	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.6	11.8
– Net Position:	1,404	-12,409	11,005
– Gross Longs:	48,843	148,315	39,446
– Gross Shorts:	47,439	160,724	28,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	38.9	75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.1	31.1	-7.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	69.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	78.3	4.1
– Net Position:	26,337	-39,015	12,678
– Gross Longs:	94,562	317,476	31,364
– Gross Shorts:	68,225	356,491	18,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-16.2	1.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	88.7	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	82.8	1.5
– Net Position:	-31,047	24,112	6,935
– Gross Longs:	32,341	365,047	13,105
– Gross Shorts:	63,388	340,935	6,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	61.1	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	6.3	-5.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

19 Oct

Speculator Extremes: Russell2000, VIX, USD Index & 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 15th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 17.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 26,337 net contracts this week with a jump by 21,330 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 24.6 this week. The speculator position registered 322 net contracts this week with a weekly boost by 3,330 contracts in speculator bets.

Platinum

The Platinum speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Platinum speculator level resides at a 93.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 72.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 28,387 net contracts this week with a change of 4,730 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 91.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 2.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 66,950 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,235 contracts in the speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Australian Dollar speculator level sits at a 90.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 19.2 this week.

The speculator position was 19,269 net contracts this week with a decrease of -14,153 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -45.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,100 net contracts this week with a small reduction by -211 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.4 this week. The speculator position was -1,630,024 net contracts this week with a decrease by -29,699 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 8.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,342,260 net contracts this week with a decline of -117,224 contracts in the speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 9.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.2 this week. The speculator position was -215,156 net contracts this week with a gain of 7,304 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

Finally, the Heating Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 14.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -28.3 this week. The speculator position was -6,710 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,144 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

12 Oct

US Dollar Index Speculator bets fall for 4th straight week to 6-month low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (28,276 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,894 contracts), the Mexican Peso (2,894 contracts), Bitcoin (402 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (395 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-20,244 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-19,148 contracts), the EuroFX (-16,229 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,043 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-689 contracts) and the British Pound (-630 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculator bets fall for 4th straight week to 6-month low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decrease in the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions declined for a fourth straight week and have now dipped by a total of -22,099 net contracts over this 4-week period. This recent weakness has pushed the US Dollar Index speculator net position into an overall bearish position at a total of -1,889 contracts. The current speculator standing now resides at the lowest level since April 2nd, a span of 27 weeks.

The Dollar Index sentiment has been feeling the pressure over the past few months with US inflation steadily coming down since the highs of 2022 and with the government interest rates already in a cutting cycle. The US Federal Reserve reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points at the last central bank meeting and brought the current rate down to a range of 4.75-5.00 percent.

There was an expectation of another jumbo rate cut coming up but a recent strong jobs report combined with a recent sticky inflation report puts a higher probability now for a smaller rate cut or even the possibility of a Fed hold. The CME Fedwatch tool shows at the current time, there is a 89.5 percent probability outlook that the Fed will cut the rate by another 25 basis points at the November 7th meeting while there is also 10.5 percent probability outlook that the Fed will hold the rate steady next month.

Despite the recent sentiment deficit, the US Dollar Index price has had a strong couple of weeks after falling to and rebounding off the 100.15 level on September 27th. Including September 30th, the Dollar Index has risen in nine out of the past ten days and closed this week right below 103.00 at a close of 102.91. We will see if this strength in the USD continues and whether the Dollar Index can get over the 103.00 support/resistance barrier or perhaps, head back lower toward 100.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Japanese Yen (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (78 percent) and the Swiss Franc (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (37 percent), the Brazilian Real (43 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (43 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (37.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (43.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (78.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (78.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (88.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (55.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (54.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (56.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (86.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (44.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (45.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (44.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (42.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.8 percent)
Bitcoin (47.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (41 percent) and the Australian Dollar (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The New Zealand Dollar (18 percent), the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) and the Japanese Yen (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-23 percent), Bitcoin (-17 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-44.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-37.2 percent)
EuroFX (-22.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (5.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (42.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (37.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (18.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (30.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (40.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (12.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-16.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-21.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.6	23.5	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	13.6	13.7
– Net Position:	-1,889	2,542	-653
– Gross Longs:	15,016	6,016	2,869
– Gross Shorts:	16,905	3,474	3,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.3	40.0	7.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	57.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	68.7	7.2
– Net Position:	39,098	-74,895	35,797
– Gross Longs:	173,866	384,954	84,183
– Gross Shorts:	134,768	459,849	48,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	61.2	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	22.7	-15.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 93,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.6	21.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	63.4	9.1
– Net Position:	93,135	-108,008	14,873
– Gross Longs:	157,666	54,329	38,166
– Gross Shorts:	64,531	162,337	23,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.0	18.4	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.1	-0.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	37.4	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	56.6	17.6
– Net Position:	36,528	-37,659	1,131
– Gross Longs:	83,679	73,626	35,746
– Gross Shorts:	47,151	111,285	34,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	14.6	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-2.3	-10.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	69.7	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	27.1	24.8
– Net Position:	-22,459	27,158	-4,699
– Gross Longs:	7,619	44,473	11,109
– Gross Shorts:	30,078	17,315	15,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	43.8	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-0.5	-8.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -89,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	75.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.3	36.8	12.2
– Net Position:	-89,151	86,230	2,921
– Gross Longs:	21,643	168,983	30,344
– Gross Shorts:	110,794	82,753	27,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	51.6	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-8.2	-2.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.2	28.7	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	53.1	7.7
– Net Position:	33,422	-50,253	16,831
– Gross Longs:	111,561	59,057	32,659
– Gross Shorts:	78,139	109,310	15,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.3	-34.3	12.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	44.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	50.1	5.6
– Net Position:	1,281	-3,503	2,222
– Gross Longs:	26,287	25,088	5,417
– Gross Shorts:	25,006	28,591	3,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	49.2	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-20.4	19.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	53.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	74.3	4.2
– Net Position:	29,193	-27,901	-1,292
– Gross Longs:	55,327	73,035	4,374
– Gross Shorts:	26,134	100,936	5,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	55.6	9.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	0.7	0.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 28,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	50.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.1	33.3	3.9
– Net Position:	-9,979	9,637	342
– Gross Longs:	25,201	28,804	2,598
– Gross Shorts:	35,180	19,167	2,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	58.3	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.8	-40.5	1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	6.2	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.8	3.3	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,282	872	410
– Gross Longs:	24,233	1,827	1,250
– Gross Shorts:	25,515	955	840
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	85.5	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	25.1	2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Oct

Speculator Extremes: Australian Dollar & VIX lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 8th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 37.3 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 33,422 net contracts this week with a boost of 18,894 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is also at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 26.6 this week. The speculator position registered -3,008 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 12,869 contracts in speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 90.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 54,715 net contracts this week with a decline by -2,209 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Fed Funds speculator level is at a 90.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 69.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 191,471 net contracts this week despite a drop of -54,222 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 89.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 11.8 this week.

The speculator position was -1,801 net contracts this week following an increase by 830 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -44.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,889 net contracts this week and had a change of -2,043 contracts in the speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 7.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -47.6 this week. The speculator position was -222,460 net contracts this week with a decline of -27,938 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 8.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 3.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,600,325 net contracts this week with a drop of -49,535 contracts in the speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level is at just a 12.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.4 this week. The speculator position was 98 net contracts this week following a change of -898 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Finally, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 16.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,225,036 net contracts this week with a decrease by -46,817 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

12 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was small gains for Steel (830 contracts) with Palladium (546 contracts) also showing a rising week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,751 contracts), Platinum (-4,475 contracts), Silver (-2,209 contracts) and with Copper (-96 contracts) also registering a small decrease in bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (90 percent) and Steel (89 percent) remain near the top of their 3-Year ranges and lead the metals markets this week. Gold (86 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (48 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is close to the midpoint (50 percent) for the past 3-Years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (85.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (94.1 percent)
Silver (90.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (93.0 percent)
Copper (73.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (73.5 percent)
Platinum (81.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (93.1 percent)
Palladium (48.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (44.4 percent)
Steel (89.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.3 percent)

Palladium & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (33 percent) and Copper (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (21 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.3 percent)
Silver (3.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (10.1 percent)
Copper (24.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.3 percent)
Platinum (21.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.5 percent)
Palladium (33.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (32.3 percent)
Steel (11.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (9.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 278,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 299,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.1	13.3	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	71.7	4.9
– Net Position:	278,180	-303,976	25,796
– Gross Longs:	348,891	68,957	51,440
– Gross Shorts:	70,711	372,933	25,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.9	12.9	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	6.6	-7.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.5	20.8	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	74.5	6.5
– Net Position:	54,715	-76,715	22,000
– Gross Longs:	72,113	29,717	31,279
– Gross Shorts:	17,398	106,432	9,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	9.0	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-5.1	9.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -96 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	28.4	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	50.1	4.5
– Net Position:	43,096	-52,304	9,208
– Gross Longs:	105,252	68,582	20,178
– Gross Shorts:	62,156	120,886	10,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.4	25.4	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-22.7	2.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,657 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	20.0	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	60.3	4.0
– Net Position:	23,657	-31,009	7,352
– Gross Longs:	46,339	15,424	10,408
– Gross Shorts:	22,682	46,433	3,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	8.9	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-23.6	14.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	58.2	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.3	20.5	7.8
– Net Position:	-7,317	6,829	488
– Gross Longs:	4,882	10,549	1,906
– Gross Shorts:	12,199	3,720	1,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	52.7	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.3	-36.3	26.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,801 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	69.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	63.7	0.6
– Net Position:	-1,801	1,479	322
– Gross Longs:	5,473	17,032	470
– Gross Shorts:	7,274	15,553	148
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.4	10.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-13.2	40.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

12 Oct

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (183,760 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (20,403 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-225,896 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-46,817 contracts), the Fed Funds (-54,222 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-49,535 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-27,938 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-19,033 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-1,918 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (90 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (81 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (79 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (8 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (8 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (90.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (100.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (40.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (41.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (57.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (49.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (80.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (89.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (7.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (15.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (79.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (91.0 percent)

Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (70 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-22 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-13 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-9 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (69.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (70.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-1.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-4.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (5.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-21.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-22.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-5.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (28.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-47.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-50.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-9.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (11.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 191,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -54,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 245,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	50.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	59.5	4.6
– Net Position:	191,471	-179,097	-12,374
– Gross Longs:	481,131	1,059,607	84,379
– Gross Shorts:	289,660	1,238,704	96,753
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	9.5	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	69.8	-68.4	-4.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 368,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -225,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 594,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	55.7	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	59.4	0.9
– Net Position:	368,420	-373,123	4,703
– Gross Longs:	1,630,441	5,720,105	100,511
– Gross Shorts:	1,262,021	6,093,228	95,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	20.3	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	9.1	3.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -222,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -194,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	66.4	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	46.8	0.9
– Net Position:	-222,460	223,071	-611
– Gross Longs:	115,999	755,402	9,260
– Gross Shorts:	338,459	532,331	9,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	92.5	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.6	47.5	1.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,225,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -46,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,178,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	77.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	54.3	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,225,036	1,034,896	190,140
– Gross Longs:	635,254	3,446,184	292,339
– Gross Shorts:	1,860,290	2,411,288	102,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	78.0	96.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	13.8	2.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,600,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -49,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,550,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	83.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	61.0	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,600,325	1,404,836	195,489
– Gross Longs:	488,596	5,223,372	463,588
– Gross Shorts:	2,088,921	3,818,536	268,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	92.8	89.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-4.2	-0.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -960,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 183,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,143,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	60.9	6.6
– Net Position:	-960,129	805,589	154,540
– Gross Longs:	489,605	3,746,029	475,440
– Gross Shorts:	1,449,734	2,940,440	320,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	77.4	99.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	6.2	-0.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -82,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	73.9	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.9	12.9
– Net Position:	-82,467	155,448	-72,981
– Gross Longs:	352,173	1,630,033	211,286
– Gross Shorts:	434,640	1,474,585	284,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	47.3	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	3.0	-21.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -76,175 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 20,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,578 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	65.1	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	66.6	7.7
– Net Position:	-76,175	-25,386	101,561
– Gross Longs:	362,540	1,148,669	237,597
– Gross Shorts:	438,715	1,174,055	136,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	20.3	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	19.4	3.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -282,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -263,218 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	63.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-282,251	265,926	16,325
– Gross Longs:	172,856	1,351,055	180,774
– Gross Shorts:	455,107	1,085,129	164,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	26.6	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.1	0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

12 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Corn & Soybeans

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (43,264 contracts) with Soybeans (22,511 contracts), Lean Hogs (14,156 contracts), Live Cattle (11,909 contracts), Soybean Oil (10,065 contracts) and with Cocoa (558 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-26,375 contracts) with Wheat (-7,366 contracts), Coffee (-5,098 contracts), Soybean Meal (-4,175 contracts) and Cotton (-1,553 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Soybean Oil (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (68 percent), Lean Hogs (67 percent) and Wheat (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (22 percent) and Soybeans (34 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently followed next by Sugar (38 percent) and Corn (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (38.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.0 percent)
Sugar (37.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (47.1 percent)
Coffee (87.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.0 percent)
Soybeans (34.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (29.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (74.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (68.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (70.1 percent)
Live Cattle (48.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (35.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (67.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (53.4 percent)
Cotton (22.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (50.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.1 percent)
Wheat (60.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (65.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (49 percent) and Lean Hogs (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (34 percent), Live Cattle (33 percent) and Soybeans (31 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (23.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (20.1 percent)
Sugar (19.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (38.8 percent)
Coffee (-4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.6 percent)
Soybeans (31.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (37.1 percent)
Live Cattle (33.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (43.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (39.6 percent)
Cotton (16.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.2 percent)
Cocoa (9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (10.7 percent)
Wheat (13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 43,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	44.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	43.5	12.3
– Net Position:	36,071	20,228	-56,299
– Gross Longs:	323,640	670,624	127,234
– Gross Shorts:	287,569	650,396	183,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	65.2	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-20.6	-39.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -26,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	47.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	103,086	-139,667	36,581
– Gross Longs:	230,158	382,030	81,111
– Gross Shorts:	127,072	521,697	44,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.8	56.3	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-24.9	41.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,098 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	39.8	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	71.1	2.4
– Net Position:	62,715	-66,254	3,539
– Gross Longs:	76,743	84,209	8,621
– Gross Shorts:	14,028	150,463	5,082
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.0	12.2	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	4.1	-1.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -51,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	59.9	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	50.4	9.0
– Net Position:	-51,186	83,915	-32,729
– Gross Longs:	144,361	528,197	46,489
– Gross Shorts:	195,547	444,282	79,218
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	69.5	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.4	-28.5	-47.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 60,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	48.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	60.1	5.5
– Net Position:	60,259	-62,043	1,784
– Gross Longs:	150,758	250,162	30,403
– Gross Shorts:	90,499	312,205	28,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	32.3	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.3	-43.6	-7.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 99,847 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	40.9	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	63.8	4.8
– Net Position:	99,847	-127,797	27,950
– Gross Longs:	160,991	227,883	54,493
– Gross Shorts:	61,144	355,680	26,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	27.1	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.0	-35.7	33.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.2	34.5	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	48.9	13.7
– Net Position:	64,760	-45,798	-18,962
– Gross Longs:	128,051	110,049	24,596
– Gross Shorts:	63,291	155,847	43,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	66.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.4	-29.4	-32.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	34.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	43.6	9.1
– Net Position:	33,305	-28,030	-5,275
– Gross Longs:	123,646	99,845	21,505
– Gross Shorts:	90,341	127,875	26,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	31.0	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.6	-48.2	-6.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	49.4	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	45.1	5.2
– Net Position:	-11,641	10,404	1,237
– Gross Longs:	61,941	120,801	14,048
– Gross Shorts:	73,582	110,397	12,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	77.4	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-16.1	11.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	31.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	65.9	3.0
– Net Position:	39,936	-46,917	6,981
– Gross Longs:	54,387	43,661	11,054
– Gross Shorts:	14,451	90,578	4,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.7	45.0	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-9.5	-2.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	35.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	30.4	9.4
– Net Position:	-13,498	19,744	-6,246
– Gross Longs:	111,760	139,482	30,672
– Gross Shorts:	125,258	119,738	36,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	40.0	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-12.3	-16.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

12 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (12,869 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (638 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-15,342 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-13,189 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,784 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-2,764 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (88 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (84 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (38 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (87.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (65.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (83.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (88.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (59.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (88.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (98.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (38.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (37.7 percent)

VIX & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (14 percent), the S&P500-Mini (11 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (26.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (8.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-12.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (14.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (5.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (10.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	40.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	38.8	8.2
– Net Position:	-3,008	4,478	-1,470
– Gross Longs:	96,893	136,562	26,327
– Gross Shorts:	99,901	132,084	27,797
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-24.0	-10.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	71.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	75.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-5,644	-87,667	93,311
– Gross Longs:	322,686	1,514,535	263,087
– Gross Shorts:	328,330	1,602,202	169,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	27.8	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-8.1	-8.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	57.5	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	76.2	14.4
– Net Position:	14,286	-15,843	1,557
– Gross Longs:	20,585	48,713	13,762
– Gross Shorts:	6,299	64,556	12,205
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	15.2	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-7.8	-3.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	56.8	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	66.7	11.1
– Net Position:	13,295	-24,754	11,459
– Gross Longs:	57,058	141,994	39,326
– Gross Shorts:	43,763	166,748	27,867
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	25.4	76.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	12.5	-6.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	72.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	76.9	4.1
– Net Position:	5,007	-18,479	13,472
– Gross Longs:	78,784	322,420	31,844
– Gross Shorts:	73,777	340,899	18,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.1	11.2	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.3	-11.3	-7.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	89.0	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	83.6	1.5
– Net Position:	-28,274	22,292	5,982
– Gross Longs:	31,695	363,803	12,173
– Gross Shorts:	59,969	341,511	6,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	59.3	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-4.0	-7.6

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