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Archive for COT Updates – Page 21

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculators boost Yen bets, bring Euro & USD Index out of bearish levels

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (33,466 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,719 contracts), the EuroFX (11,367 contracts), the British Pound (7,177 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (1,888 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies with declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-37,929 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,733 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-6,020 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,640 contracts), Bitcoin (-789 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-1 contract) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boost Yen bets, bring Euro, USD Index out of bearish levels

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is that both the Euro and the US dollar index speculator positions were modestly boosted out of their bearish levels into small positive positions. Also, the Japanese yen and Australian dollar positions were well bid through Tuesday.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The Japanese yen contracts jumped this week by over +33,000 contracts which marked the highest one-week amount since 2020. The yen speculator position has now gained for two weeks in a row amid rumored currency intervention by the Japanese authorities that are trying to arrest deep declines in the yen. The USDJPY currency pair still trades over 155.00 which is close to over thirty-year highs for the US dollar against the yen.

The Australian dollar speculator position rose strongly this week by over +18,000 contracts following a boost by +13,004 contracts on April 30th. The AUD speculator bets have now gained for three straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks. Recently, the speculator position for the Aussie had dropped to an all-time record low on March 19th at a total of -107,538 contracts. Since then, speculator bets have improved significantly and are currently at -64,516 contracts.

The Euro bounced back again this week with a gain of +11,367 contracts and a follows up a small rise last week. The improvement in the overall net position has brought the speculative standing back into bullish territory following two straight weeks in bearish territory. That was the first time the Euro contracts had been in bearish territory since September of 2022.

The US dollar index bets also came out of bearish territory this week for the first time in seven weeks. The USD Index bets rose by 1,888 contracts and gained for the fifth straight week. The contracts had been in bullish territory for a total of 142 straight weeks before dropping into a bearish position on March 26th.

The Mexican Peso speculative position decreased this week for a fourth straight week but did so modestly (-6,733 contracts) and remains in a strong bullish level. The MXN speculator’s current standing (+112,312 contracts) remains above +100,000 contract level for 1oth consecutive week. The MXN peso exchange rate has bounced back with gains in the past two weeks after a steep pullback in the middle of April.

The Swiss franc position was virtually unchanged this week (-1 contract) but continues to remain near the lowest levels since 2019 at a total of -41,787 contracts. The franc is one of the most extremely bearish markets in the COT data we follow. The franc’s exchange rate against the US dollar has been on the decline with an approximate drop by over 8 percent since December 2023. The CHFUSD currently trades around the major levels near 1.1050 – 1.1100.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (87 percent) and the Bitcoin (55 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (39 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (9 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (10 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.8 percent)
EuroFX (22.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (38.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (34.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (7.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (86.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (89.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (43.0 percent)
Bitcoin (54.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.5 percent)


Australian Dollar & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (37 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Bitcoin (4 percent), the Japanese Yen (-4 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-38 percent), Swiss Franc (-35 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.5 percent)
EuroFX (-11.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-37.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-54.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-3.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-35.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-37.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-14.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-23.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-9.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-52.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.4 percent)
Bitcoin (4.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.6 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.221.68.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.929.45.2
– Net Position:1,853-3,3921,539
– Gross Longs:28,8819,2603,753
– Gross Shorts:27,02812,6522,214
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.893.529.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.2-5.0-1.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.160.111.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.463.58.8
– Net Position:4,590-22,27917,689
– Gross Longs:170,594393,84575,156
– Gross Shorts:166,004416,12457,467
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.380.97.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.311.9-8.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.163.49.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.948.714.6
– Net Position:-21,81332,970-11,157
– Gross Longs:51,777141,83521,445
– Gross Shorts:73,590108,86532,602
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.864.136.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.839.2-26.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -134,922 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 33,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -168,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.773.112.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.725.914.7
– Net Position:-134,922141,773-6,851
– Gross Longs:34,990219,30537,333
– Gross Shorts:169,91277,53244,184
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.176.961.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.67.5-20.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.877.911.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.921.723.1
– Net Position:-41,78753,109-11,322
– Gross Longs:9,23773,68410,557
– Gross Shorts:51,02420,57521,879
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.492.225.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.323.518.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -69,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.268.513.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.135.314.9
– Net Position:-69,22171,845-2,624
– Gross Longs:32,945148,39029,719
– Gross Shorts:102,16676,54532,343
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.388.717.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.410.03.6

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.664.49.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.429.813.3
– Net Position:-64,51672,522-8,006
– Gross Longs:49,480135,02319,859
– Gross Shorts:113,99662,50127,865
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.966.836.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.0-33.211.1

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.160.15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.235.410.3
– Net Position:-11,19113,792-2,601
– Gross Longs:19,06033,5313,124
– Gross Shorts:30,25119,7395,725
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.674.320.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.714.8-11.5

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 112,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.740.92.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.288.11.1
– Net Position:112,312-116,3744,062
– Gross Longs:137,564101,0756,829
– Gross Shorts:25,252217,4492,767
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.5 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.613.437.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.710.2-9.8

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -37,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.279.93.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.316.23.5
– Net Position:-37,64337,468175
– Gross Longs:9,54646,9662,236
– Gross Shorts:47,1899,4982,061
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 14.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.036.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-52.654.1-22.4

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.44.56.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:82.44.03.6
– Net Position:-783134649
– Gross Longs:20,7701,1811,588
– Gross Shorts:21,5531,047939
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.668.127.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.40.6-7.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,863 contracts) with Copper (4,584 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-4,643 contracts), Silver (-842 contracts), Steel (-720 contracts) and with Palladium (-18 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (100 percent) and Silver (92 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (66.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (68.4 percent)
Silver (92.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (93.3 percent)
Copper (100.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (95.3 percent)
Platinum (54.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (36.2 percent)
Palladium (15.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.2 percent)
Steel (83.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.2 percent)


Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (40 percent) and Platinum (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.2 percent)
Silver (3.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.9 percent)
Copper (40.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (26.6 percent)
Platinum (17.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.4 percent)
Palladium (-7.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.5 percent)
Steel (-6.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.5 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 199,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 204,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.423.610.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.766.55.1
– Net Position:199,567-227,26627,699
– Gross Longs:272,144124,89954,701
– Gross Shorts:72,577352,16527,002
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.332.563.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.1-3.627.8

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 53,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.424.220.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.370.27.2
– Net Position:53,652-74,41520,763
– Gross Longs:81,65039,22532,441
– Gross Shorts:27,998113,64011,678
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.3 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.13.682.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.9-11.336.5

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.321.47.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.544.75.1
– Net Position:62,648-70,0127,364
– Gross Longs:160,14764,28022,549
– Gross Shorts:97,499134,29215,185
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.064.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.2-37.6-2.5

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.124.510.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.147.24.9
– Net Position:13,660-18,3484,688
– Gross Longs:45,23219,7328,620
– Gross Shorts:31,57238,0803,932
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.544.730.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.3-15.1-7.9

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.651.38.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:65.710.26.8
– Net Position:-11,08810,600488
– Gross Longs:5,82313,2202,230
– Gross Shorts:16,9112,6201,742
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 15.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.185.171.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.43.636.1

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.080.41.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.267.41.2
– Net Position:-3,3833,33548
– Gross Longs:3,60620,678362
– Gross Shorts:6,98917,343314
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.417.337.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.15.88.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (126,619 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (49,384 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-48,655 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-17,251 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-24,279 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,970 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-5,790 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-1,555 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.


Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (98 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (97.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (70.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (29.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (20.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (74.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (75.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (58.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (60.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (42.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (44.0 percent)


Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (68 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (9 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-35 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (67.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (13.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-15.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-1.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-34.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-31.9 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -339,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -315,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.059.40.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.356.10.4
– Net Position:-339,562341,716-2,154
– Gross Longs:1,446,2136,144,80936,213
– Gross Shorts:1,785,7755,803,09338,367
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.757.386.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.533.97.5

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 136,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 126,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.554.82.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.463.22.6
– Net Position:136,965-127,034-9,931
– Gross Longs:356,452833,17430,131
– Gross Shorts:219,487960,20840,062
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.82.771.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:67.7-65.7-15.7

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,022,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,016,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.779.26.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.757.63.1
– Net Position:-1,022,233880,495141,738
– Gross Longs:516,3333,230,397269,053
– Gross Shorts:1,538,5662,349,902127,315
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.067.197.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.96.47.7

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,163,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,146,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.083.27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.265.75.4
– Net Position:-1,163,8491,059,427104,422
– Gross Longs:483,0305,038,983429,855
– Gross Shorts:1,646,8793,979,556325,433
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.578.885.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.91.3-0.7

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -481,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -432,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.377.99.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.267.68.8
– Net Position:-481,620457,22224,398
– Gross Longs:455,9243,437,718411,798
– Gross Shorts:937,5442,980,496387,400
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.153.578.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-10.6-3.0

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -214,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 49,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -263,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.576.39.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.562.113.8
– Net Position:-214,299304,341-90,042
– Gross Longs:268,0501,635,316205,566
– Gross Shorts:482,3491,330,975295,608
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.989.060.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.526.1-18.2

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.769.612.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.270.510.2
– Net Position:-24,669-14,89039,559
– Gross Longs:267,9181,116,846202,830
– Gross Shorts:292,5871,131,736163,271
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.98.876.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.48.8-13.2

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -316,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -310,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.079.810.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.261.310.1
– Net Position:-316,115305,24810,867
– Gross Longs:147,9861,312,271176,682
– Gross Shorts:464,1011,007,023165,815
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.545.946.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.310.8-3.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by DowJones & Russell 2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones & Russell 2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (3,466 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (2,289 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (1,633 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500-Mini (-52,828 contracts), the VIX (-16,446 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,851 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-1,616 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (73 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (46 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (73.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (74.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (68.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (46.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (58.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (56.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (51.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (51.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (54.9 percent)


S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (18 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (24.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (23.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (35.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-18.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-28.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (17.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-7.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-6.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-3.6 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.442.57.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.032.28.1
– Net Position:-38,87941,509-2,630
– Gross Longs:98,258171,48630,089
– Gross Shorts:137,137129,97732,719
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.025.183.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.4-2.4-14.3

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.970.713.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.475.48.6
– Net Position:-9,695-95,129104,824
– Gross Longs:262,7781,436,696280,192
– Gross Shorts:272,4731,531,825175,368
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.326.878.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.8-23.44.0

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.861.514.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.573.212.5
– Net Position:8,664-10,8472,183
– Gross Longs:19,30557,06113,773
– Gross Shorts:10,64167,90811,590
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.422.554.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.519.4-10.0

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.752.817.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.957.414.7
– Net Position:4,405-10,6336,228
– Gross Longs:65,234124,25140,762
– Gross Shorts:60,829134,88434,534
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.040.885.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.9-10.5-4.8

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.576.06.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.769.24.9
– Net Position:-38,00031,6386,362
– Gross Longs:72,277353,89129,050
– Gross Shorts:110,277322,25322,688
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.140.850.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.712.8-12.0

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.166.624.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.456.513.1
– Net Position:-3,4071,6211,786
– Gross Longs:1,46510,6753,885
– Gross Shorts:4,8729,0542,099
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.140.966.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.010.3-12.0

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.090.53.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.488.51.6
– Net Position:-13,9967,9126,084
– Gross Longs:24,945373,54312,596
– Gross Shorts:38,941365,6316,512
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.945.247.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.35.53.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (112,070 contracts) with Soybeans (102,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (41,851 contracts), Wheat (6,671 contracts) and Soybean Oil (4,889 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-13,582 contracts), Sugar (-11,744 contracts), Cotton (-11,086 contracts), Coffee (-5,713 contracts), Live Cattle (-328 contracts) and with Cocoa (-590 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Lean Hogs (61 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (58 percent) and Wheat (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent) and Cotton (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.6 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.2 percent)
Coffee (87.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.7 percent)
Soybeans (32.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (57.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (40.6 percent)
Live Cattle (25.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (72.3 percent)
Cotton (14.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.2 percent)
Cocoa (37.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (37.7 percent)
Wheat (55.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.5 percent)


Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (43 percent) and Wheat (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (22 percent), Corn (19 percent) and Coffee (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-61 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-26 percent), Sugar (-26 percent) and Live Cattle (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (18.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.1 percent)
Sugar (-26.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (6.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.9 percent)
Soybeans (22.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (42.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (31.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-32.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (3.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.0 percent)
Cotton (-60.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-54.5 percent)
Cocoa (-10.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-18.8 percent)
Wheat (30.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (21.9 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 112,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.442.79.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.638.811.3
– Net Position:-31,35456,642-25,288
– Gross Longs:311,911621,487139,562
– Gross Shorts:343,265564,845164,850
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.970.074.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.7-18.3-11.5

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.253.18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.856.18.4
– Net Position:28,561-25,176-3,385
– Gross Longs:200,063438,21265,992
– Gross Shorts:171,502463,38869,377
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.9100.012.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.027.9-28.3

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 62,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.435.24.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.864.22.7
– Net Position:62,877-66,0393,162
– Gross Longs:85,05479,8969,211
– Gross Shorts:22,177145,9356,049
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.212.461.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.7-8.121.4

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -60,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 102,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.657.46.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.747.48.8
– Net Position:-60,04874,323-14,275
– Gross Longs:123,324426,27751,042
– Gross Shorts:183,372351,95465,317
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.269.173.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.0-21.4-4.0

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.753.35.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.044.15.3
– Net Position:-51,55350,3511,202
– Gross Longs:113,697293,06630,181
– Gross Shorts:165,250242,71528,979
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.097.318.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.124.4-7.6

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 41,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.640.110.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.461.05.5
– Net Position:73,970-95,40521,435
– Gross Longs:139,373182,60546,648
– Gross Shorts:65,403278,01025,213
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.739.952.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:42.5-43.021.3

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.536.19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.649.811.9
– Net Position:43,475-37,324-6,151
– Gross Longs:96,84498,46926,308
– Gross Shorts:53,369135,79332,459
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.877.157.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.326.59.1

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.535.57.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.346.49.8
– Net Position:38,356-31,763-6,593
– Gross Longs:100,612103,75922,074
– Gross Shorts:62,256135,52228,667
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.240.053.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.0-2.6-3.6

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.244.25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.448.06.0
– Net Position:8,136-7,960-176
– Gross Longs:66,14193,74112,568
– Gross Shorts:58,005101,70112,744
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.885.015.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-60.660.5-52.8

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.235.17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.257.13.9
– Net Position:26,562-32,4955,933
– Gross Longs:44,57951,82911,641
– Gross Shorts:18,01784,3245,708
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.159.562.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.09.9-1.0

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.236.66.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.029.39.3
– Net Position:-17,78527,005-9,220
– Gross Longs:122,686135,19325,281
– Gross Shorts:140,471108,18834,501
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.246.826.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:30.5-25.7-40.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Copper, Fed Funds, Brazil Real & Sugar top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 7th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:


Copper

The Copper speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Copper speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 40.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 62,648 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,584 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Fed Funds speculator level is now at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 67.7 this week. The speculator position registered 136,965 net contracts this week with a weekly surge higher of 126,619 contracts in speculator bets.


Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 92.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 53,652 net contracts this week with a small dip by -842 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 88.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -3,990 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,015 contracts in the speculator bets.


Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 87.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 6.7 this week.

The speculator position was 62,877 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,713 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:


Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -52.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -37,643 net contracts this week with a gigantic drop by -37,929 contracts in the speculator bets.


Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.0 this week. The speculator position was 28,561 net contracts this week with a decrease by -11,744 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level resides at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -35.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -41,787 net contracts this week with a tiny decline by just -1 contract in the speculator bets.


Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 3.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.1 this week. The speculator position was -51,553 net contracts this week with an increase of 4,889 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


US Dollar Index

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 8.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.2 this week. The speculator position was 1,853 net contracts this week with a change of 1,888 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

FX Speculators reduce bearish bets for Yen, Canadian & Australian Dollars

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian & Australian Dollars

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (13,249 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (13,004 contracts), the Japanese Yen (11,531 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (3,496 contracts), EuroFX (3,212 contracts), the Swiss Franc (776 contracts), the US Dollar Index (178 contracts) and Bitcoin (6 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-4,610 contracts), the British Pound (-2,757 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-678 contracts).

Speculators reduce bearish bets for Yen, Canadian & Australian Dollars

This week’s COT currency’s data was mixed in the overall big picture and saw a pause in some of the major trends. There were many extremely weak currency positions (JPY, AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR) that saw a little turnaround for the week in their speculator bets while the extremely strong Mexican peso saw a little slide in its bullishness. The US dollar continues to remain in a strong speculative position overall versus just about all of the major currencies except the peso.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The British pound sterling speculator was one of the currencies that saw a weaker position on the week and contracts have now fallen for two consecutive weeks. The GBP bets have also dropped in six out of the last 7 weeks for a total 7-week change of -99,441 contracts — illuminating the deteriorating sentiment for the GBP. This has dropped the current speculator contract level to a new lowpoint since January 2023.

The Euro bounced back very slightly this week with a gain of +3,212 contracts. The overall net position, however, is now in bearish territory for a second straight week. This is the first time the Euro contracts have been bearish since September of 2022.

The Canadian dollar speculative position has bounced back with two weeks of gains following eight straight weeks of declines. The overall net position (currently at -63,201 contracts) remains extremely bearish with the current strength level at 15 percent of the past three-years range of positions.

Swiss franc speculator positions remain extremely bearish (1 percent strength score) and the overall net speculator position is greater than -40,000 contracts for a second consecutive week. The franc spec positioning is at the lowest levels since 2019.

The Japanese yen contracts got a little relief this week from the continued downtrend with a rise of +11,531 contracts. Previously, the JPY contracts had dropped in 13 out of 15 weeks for a -123,970 contract decline over those 15 weeks. The current speculative sentiment remains near the lowest standing since 2007. The Japanese authorities likely intervened in the currency markets earlier this week in order to pause the steep decline in the yen and the yen managed to end the week higher by approximately 3 percent vs the USD.

The Australian dollar speculator position saw improvement for a second straight week this week with a gain of +13,004 contracts through Tuesday. The Aussie spec position and sentiment have been historically bearish over the past few months with an all-time record low position reached on March 19th at a total of -107,538 contracts. The current positioning level sits at -83,235 contracts.

The Mexican Peso remains the one strong currency in the mix against the US dollar. The MXN speculative position has fallen for three straight weeks but remains in a very strong position with a current total of +119,045 contracts. The MXN speculator level has remained above the +100,000 level for nine consecutive weeks which is the first time that type of streak has taken place since late-2019 into early-2020. The MXN exchange rate versus the USD has experienced a pullback over the past month but remains slightly higher for 2024 so far and closed this week higher by over 1 percent.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (90 percent) and Bitcoin (66 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (1 percent), the US Dollar Index (5 percent), the Japanese Yen (7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the EuroFX (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (16.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (34.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (7.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (0.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (92.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (24.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (25.2 percent)
Bitcoin (66.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.4 percent)


Bitcoin & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (32 percent) and the Australian Dollar (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for the currencies.

The British Pound (-54 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-38 percent), Japanese Yen (-33 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-24 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.5 percent)
EuroFX (-23.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-35.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-54.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-64.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-32.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-48.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-37.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-44.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-34.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-4.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-23.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-41.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (9.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.7 percent)
Bitcoin (31.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (15.0 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -35 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.920.39.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.924.84.5
– Net Position:-35-2,1892,224
– Gross Longs:33,5939,8944,410
– Gross Shorts:33,62812,0832,186
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.8 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.896.037.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.5-1.014.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,989 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.661.211.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.762.88.5
– Net Position:-6,777-10,73717,514
– Gross Longs:167,185399,16373,035
– Gross Shorts:173,962409,90055,521
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.485.26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.523.7-13.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.568.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.850.415.2
– Net Position:-28,99043,560-14,570
– Gross Longs:43,668162,36621,215
– Gross Shorts:72,658118,80635,785
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.170.129.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-54.556.6-37.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -168,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -179,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.173.112.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.420.514.8
– Net Position:-168,388176,122-7,734
– Gross Longs:40,435244,92041,917
– Gross Shorts:208,82368,79849,651
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.298.158.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.837.7-27.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.279.39.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.420.425.9
– Net Position:-41,78658,283-16,497
– Gross Longs:11,04078,4469,120
– Gross Shorts:52,82620,16325,617
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.9 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.4100.02.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.937.3-16.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -63,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,450 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.068.213.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.834.916.8
– Net Position:-63,20170,490-7,289
– Gross Longs:33,793144,35928,321
– Gross Shorts:96,99473,86935,610
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.987.96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.816.7-6.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -83,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.470.29.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.529.013.3
– Net Position:-83,23592,394-9,159
– Gross Longs:41,293157,62920,613
– Gross Shorts:124,52865,23529,772
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.4 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.081.831.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.0-17.1-1.6

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.657.75.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.139.79.0
– Net Position:-8,55110,607-2,056
– Gross Longs:21,51433,9423,253
– Gross Shorts:30,06523,3355,309
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.166.527.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.725.9-29.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 119,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,655 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.138.42.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.387.91.2
– Net Position:119,045-123,3254,280
– Gross Longs:144,67995,7157,175
– Gross Shorts:25,634219,0402,895
– Long to Short Ratio:5.6 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.910.138.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.74.6-0.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.049.02.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.749.32.0
– Net Position:286-32135
– Gross Longs:47,28149,3052,074
– Gross Shorts:46,99549,6262,039
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.176.334.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.117.8-20.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 0 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.95.25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:78.97.33.8
– Net Position:6-530524
– Gross Longs:19,5691,2911,461
– Gross Shorts:19,5631,821937
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.551.224.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.6-45.4-7.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Copper, Silver & Commodities Index lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 30th 2024.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Copper


The Copper speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Copper speculator level is currently at a 99.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 27.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 58,064 net contracts this week with a small decline of -330 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Silver


The Silver speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is now at a 93.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 2.9 this week. The speculator position registered 54,494 net contracts this week with a weekly drop of -4,846 contracts in speculator bets.


Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level resides at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 21.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,975 net contracts this week with an edge up by just 4 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 92.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 17.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 68,590 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,324 contracts in the speculator bets.


VIX


The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The VIX speculator level sits at a 90.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 24.2 this week.

The speculator position was -22,433 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,433 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil


The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -56,442 net contracts this week with a sharp fall by -25,101 contracts in the speculator bets.


Swiss Franc


The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.9 this week. The speculator position was -41,786 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 776 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note


The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 2.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -263,683 net contracts this week with a decrease of -24,156 contracts in the speculator bets.


US Dollar Index


The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 4.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.5 this week. The speculator position was -35 net contracts this week with a gain of 178 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Sugar


Finally, the Sugar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 5.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.5 this week. The speculator position was 40,305 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,796 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Gold & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (1,319 contracts) with Steel (1,136 contracts) also recording a positive contract week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-4,846 contracts), Palladium (-1,912 contracts), Platinum (-667 contracts) and with Copper (-330 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (100 percent), Silver (93 percent) and Steel (86 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (68 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (68.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.8 percent)
Silver (93.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (99.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.0 percent)
Palladium (15.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (26.7 percent)
Steel (86.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.8 percent)


Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.6 percent)
Silver (2.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (25.5 percent)
Copper (27.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.3 percent)
Platinum (1.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.1 percent)
Palladium (-6.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (-0.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.624.49.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.468.25.2
– Net Position:204,210-227,49823,288
– Gross Longs:278,850126,92550,274
– Gross Shorts:74,640354,42326,986
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.432.549.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-4.123.6

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.024.519.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.269.77.0
– Net Position:54,494-75,19620,702
– Gross Longs:83,09440,74532,309
– Gross Shorts:28,600115,94111,607
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.32.781.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-13.651.1

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 58,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.122.57.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.345.25.0
– Net Position:58,064-66,6428,578
– Gross Longs:152,80766,10523,247
– Gross Shorts:94,743132,74714,669
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.60.072.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.8-26.96.3

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.125.611.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.641.34.2
– Net Position:6,797-12,5705,773
– Gross Longs:42,53220,5529,143
– Gross Shorts:35,73533,1223,370
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.260.645.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.41.3-13.6

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.056.28.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:69.810.67.3
– Net Position:-11,07010,780290
– Gross Longs:5,43313,2942,011
– Gross Shorts:16,5032,5141,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 15.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.086.559.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.53.330.3

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.080.31.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.969.71.1
– Net Position:-2,6632,57192
– Gross Longs:3,62919,477357
– Gross Shorts:6,29216,906265
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.214.442.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.50.6-1.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led lower by SOFR 3M & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as eight out of the nine bond markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The only market with an increase in speculator bets this week was the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR 1-Month) with a gain of 25,936 contracts.

Leading the declines for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (-82,906 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-79,045 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-56,309 contracts), and the Fed Funds (-48,918 contracts),the 2-Year Bonds (-35,717 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-24,156 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11,645 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-1,943 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the Fed Funds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (21 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (70.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (81.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (20.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (24.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (50.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (75.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (76.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (60.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (65.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (44.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (48.3 percent)


Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (44 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-32 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-22 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (43.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (54.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (13.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-22.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-0.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (11.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-31.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-34.1 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -315,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -82,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.158.10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.255.00.4
– Net Position:-315,283320,426-5,143
– Gross Longs:1,553,3955,975,69337,317
– Gross Shorts:1,868,6785,655,26742,460
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.056.285.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-31.932.0-0.9

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.463.02.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.963.52.2
– Net Position:10,346-8,820-1,526
– Gross Longs:342,2851,170,63538,611
– Gross Shorts:331,9391,179,45540,137
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.827.888.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:43.8-42.7-8.5

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,016,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -35,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -980,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.980.26.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.658.73.1
– Net Position:-1,016,443878,770137,673
– Gross Longs:487,2673,289,154265,541
– Gross Shorts:1,503,7102,410,384127,868
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.467.096.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.36.69.1

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,146,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -56,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,090,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.283.77.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.366.25.4
– Net Position:-1,146,5981,051,30995,289
– Gross Longs:434,8605,032,454422,885
– Gross Shorts:1,581,4583,981,145327,596
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.678.283.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.7-1.41.7

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -432,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -79,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -353,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.277.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.067.39.7
– Net Position:-432,965457,279-24,314
– Gross Longs:451,6433,428,368405,462
– Gross Shorts:884,6082,971,089429,776
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.653.568.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.2-8.8-15.6

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -263,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.877.79.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.660.814.0
– Net Position:-263,683349,548-85,865
– Gross Longs:224,1171,605,733202,627
– Gross Shorts:487,8001,256,185288,492
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.9100.063.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.428.4-3.6

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.470.212.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.970.510.5
– Net Position:-23,114-4,60727,721
– Gross Longs:258,3801,105,551192,864
– Gross Shorts:281,4941,110,158165,143
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.413.068.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.26.2-10.7

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -310,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.580.410.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.461.610.7
– Net Position:-310,145309,147998
– Gross Longs:139,0751,318,512176,104
– Gross Shorts:449,2201,009,365175,106
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.947.838.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.311.1-15.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.