COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 20

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week (through Tuesday) as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (34,340 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (6,489 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,410 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,602 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (540 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-1,826 contracts) with the VIX (-1,367 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (85 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (76 percent) and S&P500-Mini (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (56 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (85.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (86.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (74.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (68.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (56.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (53.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (62.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (70.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (71.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (79.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (74.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (76.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (72.6 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (42 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (25 percent), the Russell-Mini (9 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EAFE-Mini (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (42.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (44.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-6.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-11.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-7.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (8.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (17.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	42.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	40.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-10,358	8,055	2,303
– Gross Longs:	94,853	138,093	29,211
– Gross Shorts:	105,211	130,038	26,908
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	14.8	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.0	-40.5	1.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -19,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 34,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	71.3	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	73.9	8.2
– Net Position:	-19,022	-56,199	75,221
– Gross Longs:	300,366	1,504,785	249,432
– Gross Shorts:	319,388	1,560,984	174,211
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.5	26.5	67.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	5.4	-22.5

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	63.2	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	58.3	15.7
– Net Position:	-2,604	3,625	-1,021
– Gross Longs:	9,846	47,045	10,660
– Gross Shorts:	12,450	43,420	11,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	43.5	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	8.9	-27.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,178 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	54.2	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	65.7	11.3
– Net Position:	15,178	-28,512	13,334
– Gross Longs:	70,420	134,323	41,232
– Gross Shorts:	55,242	162,835	27,898
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.7	22.9	79.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-12.6	12.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	69.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	67.8	6.7
– Net Position:	-17,171	8,856	8,315
– Gross Longs:	70,029	288,403	35,994
– Gross Shorts:	87,200	279,547	27,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.3	29.4	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-4.0	-17.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	69.0	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	69.3	18.4
– Net Position:	-121	-46	167
– Gross Longs:	1,068	9,952	2,817
– Gross Shorts:	1,189	9,998	2,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	26.1	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-18.4	-5.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	85.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	85.5	0.9
– Net Position:	-9,613	721	8,892
– Gross Longs:	49,736	380,093	12,869
– Gross Shorts:	59,349	379,372	3,977
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	27.1	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	-3.3	22.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

30 Mar

Speculators add to Japanese & European Bets while US Dollar & Commodity Currencies Bets Slide

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (14,881 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,048 contracts), the Euro (6,100 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,087 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,412 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (280 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,997 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,218 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,123 contracts), Bitcoin (-662 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-372 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

RoundUp: Speculators continued to add to Japanese & European currencies while US Dollar & Commodity currencies see lower bets

The speculative landscape for the currency futures this week continued to be a mixed bag with some major currencies seeing sentiment gains versus the US Dollar while others continued to see weak sentiment levels persist.

The US Dollar Index futures saw slightly higher speculator contracts this week with a small gain of 280 contracts. But overall, the US Dollar Index bets have fallen in three out of the past five weeks and by a total of -9,300 contracts over these past five weeks, bringing the total bullish position to just +7,468 contracts (down by more than 50% of 3 weeks ago). The Dollar Index price has remained in a short-term downtrend that started in the new year and has taken the price from over 109.00 to the current level of approximately 104.00. The 102.50 and the very significant level of 100.00 still linger below as major support barriers if the downtrend continues.

The Euro speculator positions have continued to see positive sentiment with gains in six straight weeks and the overall position has risen by +129,950 contracts in the last six weeks through Tuesday. The Euro standing for speculators is at the highest level since September after a 20-week spell in bearish territory from October to early March. The Euro futures price trades around the 1.0825 level currently, up from around the 1.0250 levels to end 2024 but would need to breakthrough the tough 1.1250 resistance to see a strong breakout to the upside and perhaps, a new Euro bull market.

The British pound sterling led the currencies in bullish bets on the week and overall, the GBP speculator positions have risen for eight straight weeks through Tuesday. This has brought the overall spec standing to a +44,283 contract bullish position – the highest since November. The GBP futures price has been on a bullish run since the beginning of the new year and is currently right at a significant overhead resistance level of 1.3000. The test of this level will determine the next path for the GBP as a breakthrough above 1.3000 could see a retest of the 2024 high (just below 1.3500) or we could see a breakdown and testing of lower levels (200-weekly ma at 1.2715 & previous support around 1.2500-1.2650).

The Japanese yen speculators boosted their bets this week for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks with a total +154,787 contract gain over that time. This week’s spec level is the third highest level on record at a total of +125,376 contracts for the yen and demonstrates how bullish speculators are on the currency. However, it remains to be seen if this level of sentiment can propel the JPY to higher price levels. The yen remains in a historically weak position versus the US Dollar as the USDJPY trades right around the 150.00 level and the currency pair has been bid up relatively quickly anytime there is a dip below this threshold. There is going to need a sustained push below the 150.00 level to get traction on a yen bullish case.

The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars (commodity currencies) are all in similar situations currently in terms of speculator positioning. All three sport strength scores (current levels compared to last 3-years of spec bets) of 30 or under with the Canadian dollar at 30, Australian at 21 and the New Zealand currency at 16. Recently, the New Zealand dollar speculator positions fell to an all-time record low of -55,765 contracts on March 4th. Perhaps, the worst of the sentiment is over for these currencies in this down cycle but we would need to see a sustained turning of the bearish positions in conjunction with price trends coming out of the deep downtrends all three currencies are in now.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (77 percent), the Mexican Peso (59 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (21 percent), the US Dollar Index (22 percent) and the Swiss Franc (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.6 percent)
EuroFX (53.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (51.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (26.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.5 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (49 percent) and the Brazilian Real (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (34 percent), the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the Mexican Peso (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-16.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.2 percent)
EuroFX (49.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (22.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (37.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.7	4.7	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.1	31.9	8.5
– Net Position:	7,468	-7,945	477
– Gross Longs:	22,699	1,385	2,953
– Gross Shorts:	15,231	9,330	2,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	78.4	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	16.7	-7.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 65,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	55.8	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	70.8	7.0
– Net Position:	65,525	-100,316	34,791
– Gross Longs:	189,796	375,753	81,743
– Gross Shorts:	124,271	476,069	46,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	47.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.5	-47.8	23.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.0	25.5	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	52.0	13.5
– Net Position:	44,283	-50,682	6,399
– Gross Longs:	109,016	48,843	32,226
– Gross Shorts:	64,733	99,525	25,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	41.2	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-26.7	41.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.8	30.6	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	75.3	11.4
– Net Position:	125,376	-135,740	10,364
– Gross Longs:	160,474	92,999	44,965
– Gross Shorts:	35,098	228,739	34,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	3.9	86.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.2	-19.7	-8.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	82.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	28.8	22.2
– Net Position:	-37,593	46,102	-8,509
– Gross Longs:	4,178	70,830	10,519
– Gross Shorts:	41,771	24,728	19,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	74.6	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-12.5	27.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -129,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	83.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	33.6	12.5
– Net Position:	-129,534	140,196	-10,662
– Gross Longs:	17,948	234,774	24,617
– Gross Shorts:	147,482	94,578	35,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	73.8	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-9.2	2.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -77,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	66.3	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.6	20.6	15.7
– Net Position:	-77,446	82,329	-4,883
– Gross Longs:	28,124	119,381	23,317
– Gross Shorts:	105,570	37,052	28,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	79.0	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	7.1	-0.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -41,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	78.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.9	26.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-41,567	42,865	-1,298
– Gross Longs:	13,435	64,617	4,082
– Gross Shorts:	55,002	21,752	5,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	82.3	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-9.6	9.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.1	28.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	70.7	3.4
– Net Position:	59,039	-58,694	-345
– Gross Longs:	89,477	38,556	4,376
– Gross Shorts:	30,438	97,250	4,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	44.0	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-23.3	12.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.2	27.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	66.0	1.2
– Net Position:	40,349	-42,553	2,204
– Gross Longs:	70,030	29,411	3,556
– Gross Shorts:	29,681	71,964	1,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	9.0	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.4	-38.7	10.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,841 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.0	3.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.9	7.2	4.3
– Net Position:	1,179	-1,150	-29
– Gross Longs:	24,376	945	1,207
– Gross Shorts:	23,197	2,095	1,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.0	34.7	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-36.3	-6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Yen, Live Cattle, Steel & Silver lead weekly Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position continues to be at the top of the extremes list and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 22.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 125,376 net contracts (just below the recent record high) this week with a bump up by 2,412 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 94.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.4 this week. The speculator position registered 117,987 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 14,562 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 4.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,771 net contracts this week with a dip by -635 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 14.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 60,950 net contracts this week with a small decline of -1,348 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level sits at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 37.4 this week.

The speculator position was 40,349 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -372 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at just a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,900,087 net contracts this week with a small gain of 5,853 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.0 this week. The speculator position was -54,006 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,702 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 7.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -49,278 net contracts this week with a drop by -17,071 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 11.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.1 this week. The speculator position was -82,548 net contracts this week with a reduction of -6,069 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 16.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 9.0 this week. The speculator position was -41,567 net contracts this week with a decline by -1,123 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

30 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (8,912 contracts) with Palladium (190 contracts) also seeing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-8,136 contracts), Platinum (-6,949 contracts), Silver (-1,348 contracts) and Steel (-635 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (94 percent) and Silver (93 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (75 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (42 percent) and Platinum (48 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (75.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (78.2 percent)
Silver (93.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (94.9 percent)
Copper (65.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.7 percent)
Platinum (48.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.4 percent)
Palladium (42.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (40.7 percent)
Steel (93.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (96.8 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (14 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-13 percent) and Gold (-13 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-13.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-16.9 percent)
Silver (14.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.1 percent)
Copper (12.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.1 percent)
Platinum (-28.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (3.6 percent)
Palladium (-13.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-17.8 percent)
Steel (4.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (28.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 249,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 257,932 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.9	17.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	71.4	4.7
– Net Position:	249,796	-278,598	28,802
– Gross Longs:	316,572	86,838	52,852
– Gross Shorts:	66,776	365,436	24,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	22.0	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	11.3	12.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 60,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.5	19.0	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	66.6	7.2
– Net Position:	60,950	-80,705	19,755
– Gross Longs:	85,712	32,304	31,951
– Gross Shorts:	24,762	113,009	12,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	5.1	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-13.8	5.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	28.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	41.8	6.7
– Net Position:	34,104	-34,530	426
– Gross Longs:	106,085	70,815	17,306
– Gross Shorts:	71,981	105,345	16,880
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	40.7	20.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-8.4	-21.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.0	22.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	47.4	4.7
– Net Position:	13,558	-20,060	6,502
– Gross Longs:	48,416	18,154	10,285
– Gross Shorts:	34,858	38,214	3,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	48.0	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	19.1	57.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.1	44.2	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.5	8.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,309	7,420	889
– Gross Longs:	8,436	9,082	2,300
– Gross Shorts:	16,745	1,662	1,411
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	5.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	53.9	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.6	-1.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	59.8	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	69.1	0.4
– Net Position:	3,771	-3,869	98
– Gross Longs:	13,822	24,720	248
– Gross Shorts:	10,051	28,589	150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.9	6.8	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-3.9	-8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

30 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds, Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds, Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (71,284 contracts) with the Fed Funds (51,474 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (38,970 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (14,792 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (5,853 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2,557 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-91,338 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-25,159 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-24,765 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (70 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (21 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (21 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (71.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (70.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (78.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (80.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (55.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (61.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (25.8 percent)

Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (19 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-29 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-24 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-0.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-5.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (10.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-28.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-23.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-26.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 51,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	62.6	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	58.4	1.6
– Net Position:	-114,010	91,500	22,510
– Gross Longs:	444,359	1,370,828	57,033
– Gross Shorts:	558,369	1,279,328	34,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	58.7	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-22.0	23.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -759,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -91,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -667,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	60.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	52.6	0.3
– Net Position:	-759,223	759,086	137
– Gross Longs:	1,324,572	6,048,322	27,119
– Gross Shorts:	2,083,795	5,289,236	26,982
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	78.9	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.9	-5.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	56.7	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	51.8	1.2
– Net Position:	-52,693	68,457	-15,764
– Gross Longs:	421,808	800,792	1,048
– Gross Shorts:	474,501	732,335	16,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.5	48.4	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	26.8	-34.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,181,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,220,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	75.1	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	47.8	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,181,586	1,059,722	121,864
– Gross Longs:	517,534	2,917,884	239,053
– Gross Shorts:	1,699,120	1,858,162	117,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	77.6	74.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-10.7	4.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,900,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,905,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	82.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	55.5	3.9
– Net Position:	-1,900,087	1,717,094	182,993
– Gross Longs:	461,359	5,232,111	432,646
– Gross Shorts:	2,361,446	3,515,017	249,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	90.8	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-2.8	17.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -810,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 71,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -881,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	75.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	61.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-810,090	707,115	102,975
– Gross Longs:	631,125	3,715,581	453,784
– Gross Shorts:	1,441,215	3,008,466	350,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	65.3	84.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	0.9	14.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -84,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	73.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	67.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-84,487	122,219	-37,732
– Gross Longs:	374,731	1,672,115	219,960
– Gross Shorts:	459,218	1,549,896	257,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	10.4	86.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-4.5	8.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -24,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	71.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	75.2	7.0
– Net Position:	-38,275	-60,775	99,050
– Gross Longs:	260,000	1,312,743	227,483
– Gross Shorts:	298,275	1,373,518	128,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	21.3	86.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	17.1	16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -232,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	80.9	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	70.1	8.4
– Net Position:	-232,366	193,573	38,793
– Gross Longs:	144,083	1,442,525	188,846
– Gross Shorts:	376,449	1,248,952	150,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.6	2.4	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-9.5	18.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

30 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (20,240 contracts) with Live Cattle (14,562 contracts), Coffee (2,322 contracts) and Cocoa (1,808 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-39,005 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,071 contracts), Soybean Oil (-13,515 contracts), Soybeans (-6,133 contracts), Wheat (-6,069 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,203 contracts) and Cotton (-4,702 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (95 percent) and Coffee (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (5 percent), Soybean Meal (7 percent) and Wheat (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (60.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.8 percent)
Sugar (27.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (82.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (80.3 percent)
Soybeans (45.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (47.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (94.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.6 percent)
Cotton (4.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.8 percent)
Cocoa (28.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (26.8 percent)
Wheat (11.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.4 percent)

Sugar & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (25 percent) and Live Cattle (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities and are the only markets with positive scores.

Soybean Oil (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-34 percent), Corn (-29 percent) and Wheat (-21 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-29.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-29.0 percent)
Sugar (25.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (-5.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-15.3 percent)
Soybeans (-5.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-43.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-34.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-14.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-12.9 percent)
Live Cattle (4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-33.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-26.9 percent)
Cotton (-7.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.9 percent)
Cocoa (-8.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-19.3 percent)
Wheat (-21.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 200,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	42.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	50.2	10.4
– Net Position:	200,371	-140,438	-59,933
– Gross Longs:	416,135	783,975	131,205
– Gross Shorts:	215,764	924,413	191,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	42.8	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	26.8	30.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 20,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,802 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	50.1	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	58.2	6.0
– Net Position:	52,042	-72,763	20,721
– Gross Longs:	211,369	450,055	74,523
– Gross Shorts:	159,327	522,818	53,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	70.9	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-24.8	17.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 58,452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	34.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	69.4	3.9
– Net Position:	58,452	-61,242	2,790
– Gross Longs:	70,947	60,843	9,622
– Gross Shorts:	12,495	122,085	6,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	18.5	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.6	-11.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	54.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	49.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-14,410	42,137	-27,727
– Gross Longs:	161,713	467,444	41,401
– Gross Shorts:	176,123	425,307	69,128
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	57.1	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	4.9	6.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	54.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	50.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-23,349	24,882	-1,533
– Gross Longs:	117,284	325,973	28,244
– Gross Shorts:	140,633	301,091	29,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	75.2	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.0	44.5	-44.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	51.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	45.6	5.4
– Net Position:	-49,278	31,359	17,919
– Gross Longs:	100,370	294,361	49,052
– Gross Shorts:	149,648	263,002	31,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.2	90.1	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	14.2	-2.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 117,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	27.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	50.8	13.8
– Net Position:	117,987	-94,564	-23,423
– Gross Longs:	193,964	109,347	31,975
– Gross Shorts:	75,977	203,911	55,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	7.2	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-7.6	5.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	37.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	47.8	7.8
– Net Position:	29,389	-26,988	-2,401
– Gross Longs:	90,491	101,431	18,590
– Gross Shorts:	61,102	128,419	20,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	47.7	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.8	34.6	19.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -54,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	52.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	33.4	4.8
– Net Position:	-54,006	53,793	213
– Gross Longs:	65,048	148,238	13,921
– Gross Shorts:	119,054	94,445	13,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	95.5	18.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	8.3	-19.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	44.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	65.2	6.0
– Net Position:	18,278	-21,738	3,460
– Gross Longs:	28,864	45,771	9,683
– Gross Shorts:	10,586	67,509	6,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	71.7	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	11.6	-30.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -82,548 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	36.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	19.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-82,548	79,370	3,178
– Gross Longs:	121,763	170,090	36,009
– Gross Shorts:	204,311	90,720	32,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	84.5	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.1	20.1	8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

30 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led this week by Nikkei 225

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nikkei 225 stock index with a small rise of 540 contracts on the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-121,673 contracts), the VIX (-15,159 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-14,307 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-5,479 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,137 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,180 contracts) with also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (87 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and Russell-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (86.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (100.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (68.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (90.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (53.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (52.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (75.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (79.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (74.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (72.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (77.1 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (44 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (25 percent) and the Russell-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (44.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (48.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-6.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-11.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-7.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (6.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (17.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	41.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	40.9	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,991	2,843	6,148
– Gross Longs:	79,034	128,546	27,278
– Gross Shorts:	88,025	125,703	21,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.5	10.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.4	-43.4	5.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -121,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	72.1	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	73.8	7.9
– Net Position:	-53,362	-33,837	87,199
– Gross Longs:	263,754	1,496,022	251,247
– Gross Shorts:	317,116	1,529,859	164,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	29.8	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	11.9	-17.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	63.5	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	59.9	14.0
– Net Position:	-4,206	2,646	1,560
– Gross Longs:	8,894	47,272	11,996
– Gross Shorts:	13,100	44,626	10,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	42.1	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	14.4	-16.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,307 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	52.6	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	63.2	12.0
– Net Position:	8,689	-23,883	15,194
– Gross Longs:	61,767	117,916	42,020
– Gross Shorts:	53,078	141,799	26,826
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	27.9	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	-1.1	11.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	73.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	70.7	5.6
– Net Position:	-15,345	9,457	5,888
– Gross Longs:	63,721	291,919	28,244
– Gross Shorts:	79,066	282,462	22,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	29.7	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-6.6	-17.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -661 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	69.0	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	69.3	18.4
– Net Position:	-121	-46	167
– Gross Longs:	1,068	9,952	2,817
– Gross Shorts:	1,189	9,998	2,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	26.1	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-18.4	-5.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	85.7	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	84.9	1.1
– Net Position:	-12,023	3,540	8,483
– Gross Longs:	45,965	359,985	13,278
– Gross Shorts:	57,988	356,445	4,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	30.5	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	7.0	22.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

09 Mar

Brazilian Real Speculator bets jump, Yen bets hit new record high & Euro bets gain

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (40,789 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (37,671 contracts), the EuroFX (15,319 contracts), the British Pound (14,111 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,685 contracts) and Bitcoin (410 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-9,274 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-5,864 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,653 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,056 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-994 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

FX Roundup: Brazilian Real bets jump, Japanese Yen bets hit new record high, Euro bets rise

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the sharp gains in some of the major currencies versus the US Dollar.

Brazilian Real: The Brazilian currency positioning saw a huge jump by over +40,000 net contracts this week. The net speculator position has now risen in four out of the past five weeks and is in bullish territory after a 39-week streak in bearish territory from May 2024 until January 28th 2025.

The BRL exchange rate remains near the lowest levels on record versus the US Dollar that were reached in December but there has been recent momentum as the BRL has gained in eight out of the past ten weeks.

Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen speculator positions rose sharply again this week with a second consecutive weekly gain by more than +35,000 contracts. Overall, the yen speculator bets have surged higher for seven straight weeks and by a total of +163,062 contracts in that time-frame. This has pushed the current net position to a new all-time record high level of +133,651 contracts this week and breaking last week’s record.

The JPY exchange rate continues to see positive movement as the futures price climbs and the USDJPY broke down through the 150 barrier on its way towards 145.00. The USDJPY is currently trading at 147.55 and has JPY improvement in six out the past eight weeks.

Euro: The Euro speculator position has steadily improved over the past few months and has increased for three straight weeks. The Euro bets have gained by a total of +59,458 contracts over the past nine weeks and brings the current net position to a total of -10,106 contracts. This is the lowest bearish position since November and contracts could go positive in the upcoming week as the Euro has been back in favor due to dollar weakness and policy announcements.

The EUR exchange rate had a huge week with a jump by almost 5 percent. The EURUSD was trading at 1.0200 in the middle of January and with the recent surges, the EUR closed out the week over the 1.0830 exchange level.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent), the Brazilian Real (93 percent) and Bitcoin (65 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (44 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (24 percent), the Swiss Franc (24 percent) and the EuroFX (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (37.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (39.3 percent)
EuroFX (24.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (19.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (38.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (88.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (38.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (43.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (93.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.5 percent)
Bitcoin (64.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (55.7 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (74 percent) and the Japanese Yen (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (20 percent), the Australian Dollar (16 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-0.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.2 percent)
EuroFX (19.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (13.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (46.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (39.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (3.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (16.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-5.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-1.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (10.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (73.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (35.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-2.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-24.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.1	17.1	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	55.6	6.6
– Net Position:	14,738	-15,048	310
– Gross Longs:	27,785	6,675	2,886
– Gross Shorts:	13,047	21,723	2,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.2	64.4	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	2.9	-15.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	55.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	57.9	7.9
– Net Position:	-10,106	-19,259	29,365
– Gross Longs:	185,223	376,930	83,321
– Gross Shorts:	195,329	396,189	53,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	74.7	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-21.7	24.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,111 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,463 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	40.6	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	47.4	16.2
– Net Position:	18,574	-13,710	-4,864
– Gross Longs:	81,866	81,410	27,706
– Gross Shorts:	63,292	95,120	32,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	55.9	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-16.9	32.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 133,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 37,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	28.8	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	70.0	9.3
– Net Position:	133,651	-145,919	12,268
– Gross Longs:	183,955	102,081	45,054
– Gross Shorts:	50,304	248,000	32,786
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.7	-45.5	15.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	81.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	31.5	22.9
– Net Position:	-37,775	48,071	-10,296
– Gross Longs:	5,572	78,617	11,964
– Gross Shorts:	43,347	30,546	22,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	77.8	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-15.8	23.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -143,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	79.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	33.9	10.5
– Net Position:	-143,770	154,980	-11,210
– Gross Longs:	22,175	270,391	24,406
– Gross Shorts:	165,945	115,411	35,616
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	79.9	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.3	2.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,653 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	55.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	27.0	16.5
– Net Position:	-48,233	57,029	-8,796
– Gross Longs:	55,151	111,644	24,680
– Gross Shorts:	103,384	54,615	33,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	63.9	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-13.6	-0.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -55,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	78.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.0	19.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-55,765	58,610	-2,845
– Gross Longs:	17,843	77,550	3,282
– Gross Shorts:	73,608	18,940	6,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.4	-2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.3	49.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	61.6	3.9
– Net Position:	19,456	-17,305	-2,151
– Gross Longs:	65,679	72,102	3,500
– Gross Shorts:	46,223	89,407	5,651
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	65.3	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-10.1	-7.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 40,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.8	27.2	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	68.6	2.1
– Net Position:	43,167	-43,814	647
– Gross Longs:	73,933	28,866	2,899
– Gross Shorts:	30,766	72,680	2,252
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.3	7.8	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	73.5	-74.4	10.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.7	3.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.6	5.2	4.6
– Net Position:	614	-516	-98
– Gross Longs:	24,469	937	1,186
– Gross Shorts:	23,855	1,453	1,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	50.6	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	12.2	-27.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Japanese Yen, Brent, NZ Dollar & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 4th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as sentiment has shifted significantly for the yen in a quick period of time. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent or a maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength change in score totaled 46.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 133,651 net contracts this week (a new record high) with a huge boost of 37,671 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Brent Oil speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 20.0 this week. The speculator position registered -5,400 net contracts this week with a weekly jump by 23,056 contracts in speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level now resides at a 93.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 73.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 43,167 net contracts this week with a giant gain of 40,789 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is at a 91.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,340 net contracts this week despite a change of -557 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level sits at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.7 this week.

The speculator position was -231,904 net contracts this week with a dip of -4,169 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent or at the minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -55,765 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,056 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.5 this week. The speculator position was -62,137 net contracts this week with a drop of -18,651 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -55,904 net contracts this week with a decrease by -19,792 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 7.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -68.0 this week. The speculator position was 154,841 net contracts this week with a reduction of -16,357 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 9.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,798,361 net contracts this week with a decline by -172,588 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals category this week was Silver with a small gain of 454 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-18,364 contracts), Copper (-6,010 contracts), Platinum (-2,324 contracts), Steel (-557 contracts) and with Palladium (-385 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (92 percent) and Silver (84 percent) led the metals markets this week. Gold (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (41 percent) and Copper (45 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (72.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (83.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.0 percent)
Copper (45.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.0 percent)
Platinum (48.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.2 percent)
Palladium (40.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (43.4 percent)
Steel (91.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.5 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (23 percent) and Silver (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-4 percent) and Copper (-3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-21.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-6.7 percent)
Silver (7.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (8.6 percent)
Copper (-3.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.7 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-3.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.5 percent)
Steel (22.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (28.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 243,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.0	13.4	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	68.8	4.4
– Net Position:	243,261	-271,115	27,854
– Gross Longs:	303,132	65,713	49,602
– Gross Shorts:	59,871	336,828	21,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	24.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	20.0	7.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 53,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	21.2	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	69.8	7.2
– Net Position:	53,316	-70,944	17,628
– Gross Longs:	73,315	30,890	28,190
– Gross Shorts:	19,999	101,834	10,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	15.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-8.8	10.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	32.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	39.5	6.2
– Net Position:	13,012	-16,189	3,177
– Gross Longs:	88,987	70,271	16,778
– Gross Shorts:	75,975	86,460	13,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	56.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	4.8	-11.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.8	20.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	46.6	4.6
– Net Position:	13,852	-20,401	6,549
– Gross Longs:	48,163	16,532	10,229
– Gross Shorts:	34,311	36,933	3,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	47.2	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	0.5	8.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	45.0	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.8	7.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-8,519	7,573	946
– Gross Longs:	7,984	8,966	2,523
– Gross Shorts:	16,503	1,393	1,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	6.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	55.5	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	1.9	10.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	58.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	67.1	0.6
– Net Position:	3,340	-3,500	160
– Gross Longs:	13,014	22,292	380
– Gross Shorts:	9,674	25,792	220
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.9	8.6	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-23.1	9.1

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