COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 17

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (60,473 contracts) with Soybeans (8,772 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,397 contracts), Wheat (2,873 contracts) and Lean Hogs (705 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-14,702 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,288 contracts), Sugar (-10,664 contracts), Cotton (-4,567 contracts), Coffee (-3,809 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,773 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (9 percent), Sugar (10 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Soybean Oil (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (14.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.8 percent)
Sugar (9.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.2 percent)
Coffee (83.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (9.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (6.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (21.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (42.9 percent)
Live Cattle (27.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (43.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.4 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.8 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.5 percent)
Wheat (39.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.5 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (15 percent) and Lean Hogs (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (3 percent), Corn (2 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-11 percent), Coffee (-11 percent) and Soybeans (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-17.3 percent)
Sugar (-3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.4 percent)
Soybeans (-11.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-22.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-26.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-3.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.5 percent)
Cotton (-11.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.9 percent)
Cocoa (1.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.9 percent)
Wheat (2.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-11.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -151,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 60,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -212,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	44.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	33.7	10.7
– Net Position:	-151,969	173,479	-21,510
– Gross Longs:	320,403	705,379	147,095
– Gross Shorts:	472,372	531,900	168,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	85.5	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-2.7	3.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	55.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	57.7	8.2
– Net Position:	25,815	-20,274	-5,541
– Gross Longs:	186,989	443,364	60,431
– Gross Shorts:	161,174	463,638	65,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.2	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	6.2	-15.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	41.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	67.0	2.4
– Net Position:	59,207	-61,771	2,564
– Gross Longs:	72,262	101,059	8,330
– Gross Shorts:	13,055	162,830	5,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	16.6	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.6	-6.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -159,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	61.5	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	39.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-159,128	173,211	-14,083
– Gross Longs:	111,259	484,227	41,958
– Gross Shorts:	270,387	311,016	56,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	91.6	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	13.6	-18.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	53.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	44.9	4.8
– Net Position:	-49,166	45,285	3,881
– Gross Longs:	115,500	292,565	30,057
– Gross Shorts:	164,666	247,280	26,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	85.3	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-14.7	12.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	43.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	55.0	5.6
– Net Position:	43,091	-61,351	18,260
– Gross Longs:	125,998	223,119	47,203
– Gross Shorts:	82,907	284,470	28,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.1	53.4	37.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	15.9	30.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	32.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	44.1	14.1
– Net Position:	45,272	-33,544	-11,728
– Gross Longs:	108,655	94,052	28,946
– Gross Shorts:	63,383	127,596	40,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	81.7	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	8.6	-19.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	39.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	29.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-21,490	25,276	-3,786
– Gross Longs:	87,503	95,087	14,748
– Gross Shorts:	108,993	69,811	18,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	90.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-2.5	-11.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	50.8	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	31.2	6.5
– Net Position:	-41,908	44,447	-2,539
– Gross Longs:	60,131	115,178	12,254
– Gross Shorts:	102,039	70,731	14,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	1.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	10.5	-4.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	62.5	4.3
– Net Position:	31,097	-37,073	5,976
– Gross Longs:	49,602	48,710	11,944
– Gross Shorts:	18,505	85,783	5,968
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	54.9	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-1.7	-0.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	28.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-40,385	46,947	-6,562
– Gross Longs:	122,142	167,818	30,313
– Gross Shorts:	162,527	120,871	36,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	61.6	29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	0.3	-22.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

10 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & S&P 500

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & S&P 500

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (31,390 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (22,034 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (10,189 contracts), the VIX (6,108 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (2,136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,360 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-6,169 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (83 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (70 percent) and VIX (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (44 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (61.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (69.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (72.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (42.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (83.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (65.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (47.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (46.7 percent)

Russell-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (27 percent), the VIX (19 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (18.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (12.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (19.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (16.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (27.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (11.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -43,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	51.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	38.7	9.0
– Net Position:	-43,545	55,847	-12,302
– Gross Longs:	99,536	231,326	28,694
– Gross Shorts:	143,081	175,479	40,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	40.9	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-8.5	-48.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	69.5	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	75.3	8.2
– Net Position:	33,990	-118,575	84,585
– Gross Longs:	326,376	1,407,615	250,827
– Gross Shorts:	292,386	1,526,190	166,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.8	23.5	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-10.0	-10.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	57.5	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.1	14.7
– Net Position:	7,369	-7,321	-48
– Gross Longs:	21,484	48,536	12,361
– Gross Shorts:	14,115	55,857	12,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	27.6	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-8.7	-10.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	60.0	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	72.6	9.8
– Net Position:	12,611	-31,501	18,890
– Gross Longs:	50,888	149,544	43,363
– Gross Shorts:	38,277	181,045	24,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	18.0	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-14.5	15.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.9	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	76.4	5.0
– Net Position:	-2,595	-6,502	9,097
– Gross Longs:	70,303	320,588	30,609
– Gross Shorts:	72,898	327,090	21,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	16.3	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-32.2	9.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	63.0	24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	56.3	18.4
– Net Position:	-1,727	889	838
– Gross Longs:	1,625	8,358	3,278
– Gross Shorts:	3,352	7,469	2,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	32.7	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-21.1	-2.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	86.1	1.1
– Net Position:	-21,455	15,280	6,175
– Gross Longs:	31,139	378,833	10,919
– Gross Shorts:	52,594	363,553	4,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	52.4	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-2.7	-3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

04 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Coffee, GBP, Gasoline, Cotton & CAD lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 30th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 87.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled -4.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 63,016 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,484 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The British Pound speculator level is now at a 86.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 28.7 this week. The speculator position registered 111,471 net contracts this week with a weekly drop of -30,712 contracts in speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 83.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -3.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 49,061 net contracts this week with a reduction by -2,319 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is at a 83.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 1.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 246,601 net contracts this week with a drop by -26,473 contracts in the speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level sits at a 82.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 19.5 this week.

The speculator position was 13,538 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,172 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 23,056 net contracts this week with a decline of -8,827 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.0 this week. The speculator position was -37,341 net contracts this week with a decrease by -3,070 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,656,038 net contracts this week with a slide by -132,777 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.7 this week. The speculator position was -196,263 net contracts this week with a decrease of -34,660 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Brazil Real

Finally, the Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 3.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.5 this week. The speculator position was -41,159 net contracts this week with an increase of 839 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

20 Jul

Currency Speculators push British Pound bets to Record High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by British Pound & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (48,212 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (30,961 contracts), the EuroFX (21,126 contracts), the Australian Dollar (8,700 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (2,342 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-21,261 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-13,351 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,705 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,613 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,842 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-461 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push British Pound bets to Record High

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the new record high bullish sentiment in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling.

Large speculative Sterling positions jumped this week by +48,212 contracts following last week’s rise by +22,649 contracts and the previous week’s (two weeks ago) gain by +17,993 contracts. This week’s rise by over +48,000 contracts is the largest one-week increase on record and pushed the overall net speculator standing to +132,902 contracts – a new all-time record bullish position. This new high level surpasses the previous record high of +98,366 contracts that was recorded on July 17th of 2007.

The GBP position has now gained by +152,977 contracts in just the past nine weeks, going from a bearish level of -20,075 contracts on May 14th to a new record high level this week to complete an incredible sentiment turnaround in a short period of time.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate (GBPUSD currency pair) against the US Dollar has been on the move higher and touched above the 1.3000 level this week for the first time in almost exactly a year. Helping the GBP strength is the outlook that the Bank of England will take longer to cut their interest rate due to sticky inflation while the US Federal Reserve is forecast-ed to start cutting rates this year and the Eurozone is possibly going to reduce their rate again in September.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (65 percent), Mexican Peso (62 percent) and Bitcoin (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (38.6 percent)
EuroFX (30.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (21.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (77.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (1.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (92.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (65.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (90.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.9 percent)
Bitcoin (57.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (64.6 percent)

Australian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (53 percent) and the British Pound (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (29 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-27 percent), Canadian Dollar (-23 percent) and the EuroFX (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (29.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (25.7 percent)
EuroFX (-18.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (42.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (27.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-15.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-6.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-23.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (45.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (-30.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-28.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-27.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-6.4 percent)
Bitcoin (8.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (9.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.5	9.6	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	59.4	6.2
– Net Position:	18,550	-19,278	728
– Gross Longs:	30,327	3,695	3,141
– Gross Shorts:	11,777	22,973	2,413
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	60.0	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-27.6	-6.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 21,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	57.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	65.4	7.6
– Net Position:	24,749	-49,549	24,800
– Gross Longs:	179,937	375,217	74,281
– Gross Shorts:	155,188	424,766	49,481
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.8	70.7	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	18.4	-13.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 132,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 48,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.3	18.1	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	71.2	8.5
– Net Position:	132,902	-149,118	16,216
– Gross Longs:	183,287	50,803	40,067
– Gross Shorts:	50,385	199,921	23,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	96.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.1	-40.8	22.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -151,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 30,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -182,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	70.3	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.6	18.5	14.9
– Net Position:	-151,072	159,089	-8,017
– Gross Longs:	47,356	216,042	37,613
– Gross Shorts:	198,428	56,953	45,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	80.0	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	16.5	-32.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	82.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	19.8	22.5
– Net Position:	-49,793	61,672	-11,879
– Gross Longs:	6,491	81,219	10,344
– Gross Shorts:	56,284	19,547	22,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	7.7	-3.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -132,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	78.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.0	29.0	12.1
– Net Position:	-132,473	137,579	-5,106
– Gross Longs:	24,734	219,027	29,000
– Gross Shorts:	157,207	81,448	34,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	89.5	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	19.1	9.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.3	36.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	48.9	7.6
– Net Position:	11,113	-27,883	16,770
– Gross Longs:	106,312	84,403	34,164
– Gross Shorts:	95,199	112,286	17,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	52.6	-51.4	32.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	32.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	51.8	8.4
– Net Position:	12,561	-12,102	-459
– Gross Longs:	34,473	19,484	4,648
– Gross Shorts:	21,912	31,586	5,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	33.4	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-8.1	-12.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 61,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.9	46.5	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	79.0	1.7
– Net Position:	61,710	-64,182	2,472
– Gross Longs:	98,495	91,866	5,742
– Gross Shorts:	36,785	156,048	3,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	38.3	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.9	30.2	-1.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	72.5	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	21.3	2.8
– Net Position:	-44,526	44,720	-194
– Gross Longs:	21,140	63,287	2,240
– Gross Shorts:	65,666	18,567	2,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.0	25.3	10.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.2	3.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.1	2.9	3.4
– Net Position:	-579	181	398
– Gross Longs:	24,710	1,091	1,463
– Gross Shorts:	25,289	910	1,065
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	69.3	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-4.7	-8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Australian Dollar, Gold & British Pound top Bullish Bets

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 16th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 52.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 11,113 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,700 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 20.5 this week. The speculator position registered 285,024 net contracts this week with a weekly boost by 30,249 contracts in speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 42.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 132,902 net contracts this week with a gain of 48,212 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 5.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 60,165 net contracts this week with a small edge lower by -891 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 95.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 3.2 this week.

The speculator position was 70,979 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,441 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,576,174 net contracts this week with a dip by -9,573 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.0 this week. The speculator position was -44,526 net contracts this week with a reduction by -1,842 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -49,793 net contracts this week with a drop of -3,705 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.3 this week. The speculator position was -26,507 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,998 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 3.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.1 this week. The speculator position was -238,816 net contracts this week with an increase of 1,125 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

20 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets topped by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (30,249 contracts) with Copper (2,869 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-894 contracts), Silver (-891 contracts), Steel (-802 contracts) and with Platinum (-718 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (99 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (88 percent), Platinum (77 percent) and Steel (70 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (22 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (87.0 percent)
Silver (98.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (88.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (85.4 percent)
Platinum (76.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (78.5 percent)
Palladium (22.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (28.3 percent)
Steel (70.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.3 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (20 percent) and Palladium (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-2 percent) and Platinum (-2 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (20.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.8 percent)
Silver (5.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.2 percent)
Copper (-2.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.8 percent)
Platinum (-1.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-13.1 percent)
Palladium (14.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.9 percent)
Steel (-11.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 285,024 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.3	19.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	72.3	5.1
– Net Position:	285,024	-309,304	24,280
– Gross Longs:	349,827	110,041	53,814
– Gross Shorts:	64,803	419,345	29,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-17.5	-15.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 60,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.0	19.9	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	70.2	5.9
– Net Position:	60,165	-83,735	23,570
– Gross Longs:	85,005	33,181	33,426
– Gross Shorts:	24,840	116,916	9,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.8	1.2	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-2.5	-7.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	24.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	50.2	3.9
– Net Position:	58,900	-69,858	10,958
– Gross Longs:	139,774	65,732	21,526
– Gross Shorts:	80,874	135,590	10,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.1	10.2	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	4.2	-15.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	20.7	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	55.5	3.4
– Net Position:	21,948	-29,083	7,135
– Gross Longs:	48,962	17,228	9,985
– Gross Shorts:	27,014	46,311	2,850
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	14.0	85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-2.6	28.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	54.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.6	13.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-10,451	10,136	315
– Gross Longs:	5,938	13,448	1,964
– Gross Shorts:	16,389	3,312	1,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	78.5	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-13.3	-10.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	80.6	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	50.5	1.4
– Net Position:	-6,835	6,951	-116
– Gross Longs:	2,736	18,631	199
– Gross Shorts:	9,571	11,680	315
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	31.1	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.5	-9.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

20 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (48,140 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (47,328 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (28,119 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (6,777 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-219,582 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13,438 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-12,729 contracts) and with the 5-Year Bonds (-9,573 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (47.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (44.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (31.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (30.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (67.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (71.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (16.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (22.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (54.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (52.5 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (23 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the Fed Funds (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-16.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-44.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-9.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-16.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-17.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (14.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (20.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-11.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-27.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-40.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-39.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (17.4 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -122,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 28,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	57.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	56.2	0.4
– Net Position:	-122,278	128,027	-5,749
– Gross Longs:	1,592,676	5,689,601	31,635
– Gross Shorts:	1,714,954	5,561,574	37,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.0	46.2	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-22.7	-1.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 48,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	66.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	62.5	1.8
– Net Position:	-85,414	77,305	8,109
– Gross Longs:	277,410	1,240,805	41,240
– Gross Shorts:	362,824	1,163,500	33,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.5	47.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	14.2	13.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,184,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 47,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,232,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	75.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	52.9	2.7
– Net Position:	-1,184,987	1,011,202	173,785
– Gross Longs:	693,099	3,355,786	294,011
– Gross Shorts:	1,878,086	2,344,584	120,226
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	76.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	8.3	11.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,576,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,566,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	84.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	62.2	4.4
– Net Position:	-1,576,174	1,420,117	156,057
– Gross Longs:	494,873	5,464,162	444,751
– Gross Shorts:	2,071,047	4,044,045	288,694
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.6	95.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.4	4.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -637,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -219,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -417,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	79.3	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	67.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-637,486	537,647	99,839
– Gross Longs:	378,531	3,614,914	462,170
– Gross Shorts:	1,016,017	3,077,267	362,331
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	63.7	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	12.0	19.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -126,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,777 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,357 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	67.2	12.9
– Net Position:	-126,580	191,888	-65,308
– Gross Longs:	258,126	1,592,656	203,687
– Gross Shorts:	384,706	1,400,768	268,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	57.2	75.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-20.8	3.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	67.9	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	69.4	8.9
– Net Position:	-47,150	-25,466	72,616
– Gross Longs:	307,574	1,153,768	223,318
– Gross Shorts:	354,724	1,179,234	150,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	18.4	99.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	3.7	20.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -419,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -405,960 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	80.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	56.4	9.7
– Net Position:	-419,398	405,635	13,763
– Gross Longs:	146,603	1,357,495	176,513
– Gross Shorts:	566,001	951,860	162,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	96.3	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.1	42.6	10.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

20 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (2,955 contracts) with Corn (1,125 contracts) and Cocoa (538 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-32,730 contracts), Soybeans (-11,353 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,446 contracts), Coffee (-4,441 contracts), Live Cattle (-4,065 contracts), Cotton (-1,998 contracts), Wheat (-1,281 contracts) and with Sugar (-430 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Soybean Oil

On the downside, Cotton (1 percent), Corn (3 percent), Lean Hogs (8 percent) and Soybeans (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (3.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.3 percent)
Sugar (23.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.5 percent)
Coffee (95.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (99.4 percent)
Soybeans (8.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (11.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (45.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (41.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (54.6 percent)
Live Cattle (29.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (5.6 percent)
Cotton (0.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.2 percent)
Cocoa (42.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.3 percent)
Wheat (42.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (43.3 percent)

Sugar & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (23 percent) and Soybean Oil (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26 percent), Soybean Meal (-26 percent) and Soybeans (-26 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-15 percent) following next with in lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-15.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-24.0 percent)
Sugar (23.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.5 percent)
Coffee (3.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.0 percent)
Soybeans (-25.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-29.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (21.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-26.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-19.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-7.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-10.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-26.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-35.3 percent)
Cotton (-13.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-21.6 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.8 percent)
Wheat (-12.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -238,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	45.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	29.9	10.1
– Net Position:	-238,816	246,223	-7,407
– Gross Longs:	307,784	716,565	152,114
– Gross Shorts:	546,600	470,342	159,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	95.2	97.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	12.1	37.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	55.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	65.1	7.4
– Net Position:	67,589	-76,328	8,739
– Gross Longs:	177,958	424,395	65,838
– Gross Shorts:	110,369	500,723	57,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	76.0	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.4	-24.0	22.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 70,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	36.3	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	68.5	2.2
– Net Position:	70,979	-74,326	3,347
– Gross Longs:	86,151	83,513	8,486
– Gross Shorts:	15,172	157,839	5,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.0	4.4	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-3.9	11.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -161,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	59.3	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	38.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-161,503	173,410	-11,907
– Gross Longs:	135,252	496,310	49,082
– Gross Shorts:	296,755	322,900	60,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	91.6	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	25.3	19.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	52.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	53.3	4.6
– Net Position:	2,031	-6,929	4,898
– Gross Longs:	112,712	289,023	30,362
– Gross Shorts:	110,681	295,952	25,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	59.5	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-19.6	3.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -32,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	41.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	50.9	5.9
– Net Position:	33,624	-50,702	17,078
– Gross Longs:	131,194	220,889	48,465
– Gross Shorts:	97,570	271,591	31,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	57.6	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	26.4	-12.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	32.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	43.5	12.5
– Net Position:	47,212	-37,003	-10,209
– Gross Longs:	124,193	105,593	30,807
– Gross Shorts:	76,981	142,596	41,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	77.5	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	10.8	-10.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	37.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	27.3	8.0
– Net Position:	-26,393	27,877	-1,484
– Gross Longs:	81,372	99,723	19,711
– Gross Shorts:	107,765	71,846	21,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	93.8	76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	29.1	5.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	48.2	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	35.9	6.0
– Net Position:	-26,507	26,921	-414
– Gross Longs:	61,011	105,424	12,713
– Gross Shorts:	87,518	78,503	13,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.8	98.6	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	11.8	3.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	33.5	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	60.9	4.4
– Net Position:	32,278	-37,643	5,365
– Gross Longs:	47,383	46,222	11,372
– Gross Shorts:	15,105	83,865	6,007
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	54.3	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	3.2	-15.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	39.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.6	29.1	9.2
– Net Position:	-36,067	42,315	-6,248
– Gross Longs:	127,750	162,861	31,934
– Gross Shorts:	163,817	120,546	38,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	58.2	33.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	12.4	5.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

20 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell-2000 & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16thand shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Russell & DowJones

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other remaining markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (20,289 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (7,446 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (837 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (465 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-10,433 contracts), the VIX (-827 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-501 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (85 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (55 percent) and Russell-Mini (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (47.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (48.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (56.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (73.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (48.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (51.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (37.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (39.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (41.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (40.9 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (11 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-23 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-22.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (-20.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-7.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (13.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-9.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-24.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-31.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-26.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-13.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -62,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	50.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	36.7	6.0
– Net Position:	-62,305	63,725	-1,420
– Gross Longs:	87,625	240,037	27,308
– Gross Shorts:	149,930	176,312	28,728
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	49.6	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.8	23.9	-3.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	69.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	71.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-65,444	-37,170	102,614
– Gross Longs:	333,866	1,449,475	269,625
– Gross Shorts:	399,310	1,486,645	167,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	34.8	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.4	-3.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	50.4	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.1	12.5
– Net Position:	15,241	-17,661	2,420
– Gross Longs:	30,568	50,244	14,925
– Gross Shorts:	15,327	67,905	12,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.1	12.6	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-10.8	2.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	55.0	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.2	11.6
– Net Position:	5,682	-18,500	12,818
– Gross Longs:	64,830	141,026	42,513
– Gross Shorts:	59,148	159,526	29,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	32.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.0	4.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	72.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	65.5	4.8
– Net Position:	-47,337	35,373	11,964
– Gross Longs:	89,656	354,858	35,432
– Gross Shorts:	136,993	319,485	23,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	43.2	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	6.3	10.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	63.8	30.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	45.3	13.6
– Net Position:	-5,293	2,794	2,499
– Gross Longs:	901	9,607	4,539
– Gross Shorts:	6,194	6,813	2,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	46.0	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.8	20.4	15.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -23,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	88.7	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	84.8	1.5
– Net Position:	-23,771	16,545	7,226
– Gross Longs:	32,588	375,327	13,605
– Gross Shorts:	56,359	358,782	6,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	53.7	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.1	3.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

13 Jul

Currency Speculators boost their British Pound bets to highest since 2007

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (22,649 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,249 contracts), the EuroFX (13,142 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (9,140 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,190 contracts) and Bitcoin (794 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-4,831 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,645 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,624 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-374 contracts) and with the Mexican Peso (-304 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators boost their British Pound bets to highest since 2007

Highlighting this week’s COT currency data is the strong gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling (GBP). The Pound Sterling speculative positioning increased this week for a second straight week – jumping by a total of +22,649 contracts following last week’s +17,993 contract gain.

The GBP speculator position has risen for the eighth time out of the past ten weeks for a ten-week gain of +113,680 contracts that has taken the net standing from a total of -28,990 contracts on April 30th to a total of +84,690 contracts this week.

The GBP speculator position is now at the most bullish level in the past 886 weeks, dating back all the way to July 17th of 2007 when the GBP net position hit a record high of +98,366 contracts.

The British Pound’s exchange rate with the US Dollar has been in an uptrend since hitting a recent low in April. The GBP has climbed strongly over the past two weeks and closed out this week at just a touch under the 1.3000 psychological resistance level. This is the highest weekly close for the GBPUSD currency pair since July of 2023 and the first close above the 200-week moving average since that time as well.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (91 percent), Bitcoin (65 percent) and the Mexican Peso (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (39.4 percent)
EuroFX (21.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (16.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (86.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (1.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (83.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (90.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (64.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (52.7 percent)

Australian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (48 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (36 percent), the US Dollar Index (26 percent) and Bitcoin (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-23 percent), Japanese Yen (-16 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (25.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (27.9 percent)
EuroFX (-23.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-21.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (36.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-15.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-5.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (45.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (61.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-28.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-26.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-6.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.7 percent)
Bitcoin (9.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.7	18.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	58.2	4.6
– Net Position:	16,208	-17,419	1,211
– Gross Longs:	30,587	7,769	3,200
– Gross Shorts:	14,379	25,188	1,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	63.9	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.7	-25.3	-0.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	58.9	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	63.2	8.1
– Net Position:	3,623	-27,239	23,616
– Gross Longs:	165,829	375,248	75,272
– Gross Shorts:	162,206	402,487	51,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	79.0	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	21.5	-7.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.4	20.6	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	62.8	11.1
– Net Position:	84,690	-94,586	9,896
– Gross Longs:	135,316	46,249	34,670
– Gross Shorts:	50,626	140,835	24,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.9	-32.6	6.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -182,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -184,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	73.8	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.1	19.4	14.1
– Net Position:	-182,033	189,867	-7,834
– Gross Longs:	41,521	257,455	41,519
– Gross Shorts:	223,554	67,588	49,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.3	97.4	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	13.4	7.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	83.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	19.9	24.6
– Net Position:	-46,088	59,298	-13,210
– Gross Longs:	5,338	77,860	9,743
– Gross Shorts:	51,426	18,562	22,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	2.3	1.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -111,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	77.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	33.0	13.1
– Net Position:	-111,212	113,308	-2,096
– Gross Longs:	20,263	198,168	31,676
– Gross Shorts:	131,475	84,860	33,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	77.2	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	11.6	4.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	39.6	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	45.0	9.1
– Net Position:	2,413	-12,132	9,719
– Gross Longs:	98,997	89,192	30,274
– Gross Shorts:	96,584	101,324	20,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	85.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.6	-47.4	25.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.0	18.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	63.8	5.6
– Net Position:	25,912	-26,828	916
– Gross Longs:	41,683	11,129	4,250
– Gross Shorts:	15,771	37,957	3,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	6.5	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.9	-45.8	16.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 63,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	45.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	79.9	2.0
– Net Position:	63,323	-65,743	2,420
– Gross Longs:	95,748	85,441	6,150
– Gross Shorts:	32,425	151,184	3,730
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	37.5	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.3	28.1	-8.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	70.9	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	21.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-42,684	43,388	-704
– Gross Longs:	23,319	62,170	1,919
– Gross Shorts:	66,003	18,782	2,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.3	0.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.7	2.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.2	2.9	4.1
– Net Position:	-118	-88	206
– Gross Longs:	23,083	736	1,363
– Gross Shorts:	23,201	824	1,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	62.5	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	1.5	-15.9

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