COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 14

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-M & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-M & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (51,981 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (31,649 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (23,624 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-129,859 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-43,222 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-27,545 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-19,489 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-6,902 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-5,442 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (80 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the the 10-Year Bond (23 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (38 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (52.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (40.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (47.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (45.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (48.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (79.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (90.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (48.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (42.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (38.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (35.7 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (34 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-42.7 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-26 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-5.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-15.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-42.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (1.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-10.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-17.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (16.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,417 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	67.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	67.5	1.6
– Net Position:	-12,417	3,500	8,917
– Gross Longs:	426,751	1,637,172	46,896
– Gross Shorts:	439,168	1,633,672	37,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	42.7	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.8	-32.1	-8.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -423,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 51,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -475,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	60.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	56.2	0.2
– Net Position:	-423,810	420,573	3,237
– Gross Longs:	1,355,787	6,255,618	28,957
– Gross Shorts:	1,779,597	5,835,045	25,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.3	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-15.4	-14.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 23,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	69.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	64.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-80,790	80,731	59
– Gross Longs:	213,848	1,055,148	621
– Gross Shorts:	294,638	974,417	562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	51.4	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	5.5	51.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,297,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -43,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,254,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	79.1	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	50.2	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,297,995	1,181,471	116,524
– Gross Longs:	545,259	3,234,494	238,373
– Gross Shorts:	1,843,254	2,053,023	121,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	87.5	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	7.8	-6.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,191,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -129,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,061,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	84.0	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	54.0	3.5
– Net Position:	-2,191,434	1,997,863	193,571
– Gross Longs:	536,772	5,596,235	429,630
– Gross Shorts:	2,728,206	3,598,372	236,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	17.4	4.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -906,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 31,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -937,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	77.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	61.3	6.6
– Net Position:	-906,106	764,191	141,915
– Gross Longs:	495,027	3,663,652	452,338
– Gross Shorts:	1,401,133	2,899,461	310,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	72.3	94.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	15.0	13.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -167,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	68.2	11.1
– Net Position:	-167,888	192,447	-24,559
– Gross Longs:	277,763	1,725,230	224,733
– Gross Shorts:	445,651	1,532,783	249,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	38.1	88.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.7	29.4	29.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -107,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,902 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	75.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	74.1	7.6
– Net Position:	-107,687	30,179	77,508
– Gross Longs:	202,519	1,371,696	214,303
– Gross Shorts:	310,206	1,341,517	136,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	47.7	70.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.6	26.2	-12.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -247,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -27,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -220,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.9	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	71.4	7.5
– Net Position:	-247,602	216,313	31,289
– Gross Longs:	121,329	1,557,962	173,007
– Gross Shorts:	368,931	1,341,649	141,718
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	22.5	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-0.8	-2.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

26 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,275 contracts) with Live Cattle (7,421 contracts), Soybeans (5,523 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,796 contracts), Sugar (3,421 contracts), Cotton (3,378 contracts), Coffee (1,122 contracts) and Cocoa (966 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-14,339 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,840 contracts) and with Wheat (-5,643 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (76 percent) and Soybean Oil (75 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (66 percent), Soybeans (65 percent) and Corn (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (7 percent) and Soybean Meal (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Sugar (21 percent) and Cotton (23 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (63.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.1 percent)
Sugar (21.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.1 percent)
Coffee (65.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (64.6 percent)
Soybeans (64.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (75.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (72.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.5 percent)
Live Cattle (76.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (69.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (52.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (41.8 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.5 percent)
Cocoa (25.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (24.9 percent)
Wheat (6.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.0 percent)

Soybean Oil & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (34 percent) and Cotton (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (17 percent), Sugar (8 percent) and Soybean Meal (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Corn (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.2 percent)
Sugar (7.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-14.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-18.3 percent)
Soybeans (17.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (21.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (22.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (13.0 percent)
Live Cattle (1.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-22.1 percent)
Cotton (19.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.5 percent)
Cocoa (-1.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.1 percent)
Wheat (-12.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-2.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 219,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 234,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	45.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	54.8	10.5
– Net Position:	219,843	-161,479	-58,364
– Gross Longs:	450,712	773,840	121,656
– Gross Shorts:	230,869	935,319	180,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	39.5	38.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.5	-7.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	55.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	59.7	7.0
– Net Position:	33,235	-32,502	-733
– Gross Longs:	193,078	463,598	57,180
– Gross Shorts:	159,843	496,100	57,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	81.8	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-3.1	-17.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	41.9	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	71.5	3.9
– Net Position:	41,056	-43,332	2,276
– Gross Longs:	51,215	61,110	8,005
– Gross Shorts:	10,159	104,442	5,729
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	35.6	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	15.6	-15.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 55,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	52.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	55.8	8.2
– Net Position:	55,684	-31,452	-24,232
– Gross Longs:	191,535	422,467	42,698
– Gross Shorts:	135,851	453,919	66,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	35.9	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-20.3	20.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	48.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	60.7	4.5
– Net Position:	60,391	-66,889	6,498
– Gross Longs:	133,444	273,789	31,901
– Gross Shorts:	73,053	340,678	25,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	27.5	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.2	-34.3	21.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	48.9	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	46.7	5.1
– Net Position:	-30,976	13,581	17,395
– Gross Longs:	114,769	295,935	48,216
– Gross Shorts:	145,745	282,354	30,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	83.1	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-5.9	3.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 99,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	30.2	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	53.2	14.1
– Net Position:	99,006	-78,413	-20,593
– Gross Longs:	159,752	103,109	27,583
– Gross Shorts:	60,746	181,522	48,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.3	26.7	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.6	1.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	35.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	47.0	8.4
– Net Position:	31,296	-29,609	-1,687
– Gross Longs:	93,049	93,132	20,201
– Gross Shorts:	61,753	122,741	21,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.0	45.4	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.2	4.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	49.7	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	37.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-25,078	27,632	-2,554
– Gross Longs:	60,797	108,112	10,492
– Gross Shorts:	85,875	80,480	13,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	80.5	1.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-16.4	-19.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	41.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	63.1	6.6
– Net Position:	15,577	-18,970	3,393
– Gross Longs:	25,112	35,919	9,148
– Gross Shorts:	9,535	54,889	5,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	74.6	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	2.0	-3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	38.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	18.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-93,969	90,745	3,224
– Gross Longs:	114,514	173,053	35,271
– Gross Shorts:	208,483	82,308	32,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	93.7	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	11.1	11.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

26 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (15,219 contracts) with the VIX (11,552 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (5,886 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (646 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-12,838 contracts) and with the Russell-Mini (-7,398 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (98 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (89 percent) and the Russell-Mini (77 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The lowest strength score this week was the DowJones-Mini (62 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (89.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (64.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (61.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (60.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (97.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (88.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (77.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (74.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (52.8 percent)

Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (23 percent) and the VIX (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-26 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (20.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-28.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-17.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (23.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (15.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (3.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-26.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-20.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	43.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	42.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-5,745	3,019	2,726
– Gross Longs:	78,508	119,924	28,192
– Gross Shorts:	84,253	116,905	25,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.4	10.5	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-14.0	23.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -75,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	74.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	72.9	8.9
– Net Position:	-75,935	36,396	39,539
– Gross Longs:	260,930	1,646,290	236,445
– Gross Shorts:	336,865	1,609,894	196,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	40.3	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.2	38.0	-38.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	66.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	66.0	13.6
– Net Position:	887	217	-1,104
– Gross Longs:	9,623	52,324	9,616
– Gross Shorts:	8,736	52,107	10,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	38.6	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	6.8	-21.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	53.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	68.8	14.0
– Net Position:	37,680	-37,245	-435
– Gross Longs:	76,663	129,366	33,405
– Gross Shorts:	38,983	166,611	33,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	13.5	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.2	10.2	-46.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	72.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	73.1	5.8
– Net Position:	-6,719	-4,795	11,514
– Gross Longs:	83,303	334,265	38,247
– Gross Shorts:	90,022	339,060	26,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	21.0	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-0.6	7.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	87.0	1.3
– Net Position:	-11,050	6,859	4,191
– Gross Longs:	41,995	412,914	10,383
– Gross Shorts:	53,045	406,055	6,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	34.5	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	25.9	-14.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

20 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Yen, Brazilian Real, 5-Year Bonds & WTI Crude Oil lead Weekly Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 15th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position continues to make new all-time record highs and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing again this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a maximum 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 10.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 171,855 net contracts this week with a boost by 24,788 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Brazil Real speculator level has seen rising sentiment and is now at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.6 this week. The speculator position registered 49,032 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 3,917 contracts in speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nikkei 225 speculator level resides at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a rise of 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week following an increase by 2,025 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 90.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -220,057 net contracts this week with a decline of -19,747 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 88.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 15.5 this week.

The speculator position totaled 31,794 net contracts this week with a gain of 7,530 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The overall speculator position totals -2,061,575 net contracts this week with a drop of -40,000 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 3.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.0 this week. The speculator position was 146,370 net contracts this week with a rise by 6,775 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 10.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.8 this week. The overall speculator position totaled 1,828 net contracts this week with a drop by -1,085 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the Wheat speculator level is at a 11.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.6 this week. The speculator position was -88,326 net contracts this week following an increase of 3,598 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

Finally, the E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level is at a 11.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.1 this week. The speculator position is a total of -91 net contracts this week with a change of -1,984 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

13 Apr

FX Speculators push Japanese Yen bullish bets to new record high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar & Swiss Franc

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (25,293 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (12,563 contracts), the Swiss Franc (12,487 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (10,775 contracts), the EuroFX (8,145 contracts), the Brazilian Real (8,080 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (5,896 contracts) and Bitcoin (841 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-17,316 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-11,998 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-4,128 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators push bullish bets to new record high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued push higher in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Large speculative yen positions surged higher by +25,293 contracts this week and have now advanced in ten out of the past twelve weeks. Over these past twelve weeks, the speculator position has gained by a total of +176,478 contracts and gone from a bearish position on January 14th (-29,411 contracts) to a new all-time high this week (+147,067 contracts). The new record high surpasses the most recent record reached on March 11th at a total of +133,902 contracts.

The yen exchange rate has been on the move higher as well with the JPY rising this week to the best level against the US Dollar since September of 2024. The USDJPY currency pair is currently trading around 143.50 and further USD weakness/JPY strength with set up a test of the major support level at 140.00.

Tariff turmoil boosts Swiss Franc & Euro, hits USD

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc has been the recipient of safe haven flows and saw speculators sharply boost their bets this week by +12,487 contracts. The overall franc position remains bearish and has been since 2021 – so there is a lot of room for speculator bets to turn around. The Swiss franc (CHF) exchange rate has been on a sharp upward move since the Tariff turmoil hit the markets. This week, the franc rose by over 5 percent and the currency is up over 10 percent in just the past 30 days. The franc closed at the highest level versus the USD since 2011 on Friday.

The Euro speculators raised their bullish bets this week for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. This has added a total of +46,335 contracts to the Euro position in the past eight weeks. The overall bullish standing at the moment for the Euro is at approximately +60,000 contracts which is right down the middle of its 3-year range (strength score of 51 percent). The Euro exchange rate versus the USD has been moving higher and closed this week at its highest level since 2022 at over 1.1350. The Euro move has seen a gain by almost 10 percent in the past 30 days.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been on the opposite side of the Tariff turmoil and has been sold off strongly in the past couple of weeks. The DXY closed this week under the 100.00 for the first time since July of 2023 and has also closed firmly under its 200-week moving average. Speculators reduced their positions for the USD Index by -4,128 contracts this week and brought the overall bullish position down to +2,913 contracts, the lowest level since December.

Currency Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (80 percent) and the EuroFX (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (13 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (31 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (35 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (12.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.3 percent)
EuroFX (51.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (43.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (92.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (34.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (29.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (19.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (48.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (87.4 percent)
Bitcoin (80.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (62.0 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (41 percent) and the EuroFX (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (25 percent), the Swiss Franc (19 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-13 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-26.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-20.2 percent)
EuroFX (32.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (39.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (15.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (18.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (40.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (34.3 percent)
Bitcoin (24.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (18.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	15.7	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	27.1	12.3
– Net Position:	2,913	-2,601	-312
– Gross Longs:	15,487	3,580	2,479
– Gross Shorts:	12,574	6,181	2,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.7	88.9	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.6	26.1	-6.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	57.6	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	70.5	7.2
– Net Position:	59,980	-90,416	30,436
– Gross Longs:	190,296	401,858	80,668
– Gross Shorts:	130,316	492,274	50,232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	50.4	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.5	-30.6	9.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	33.8	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	42.7	14.5
– Net Position:	17,310	-15,795	-1,515
– Gross Longs:	91,733	59,719	24,131
– Gross Shorts:	74,423	75,514	25,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	55.1	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-8.7	19.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 147,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 25,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	31.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	81.5	7.8
– Net Position:	147,067	-161,669	14,602
– Gross Longs:	176,555	99,659	39,600
– Gross Shorts:	29,488	261,328	24,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-14.8	4.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	79.6	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	30.2	23.8
– Net Position:	-30,277	37,800	-7,523
– Gross Longs:	4,348	60,872	10,659
– Gross Shorts:	34,625	23,072	18,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	61.1	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-21.1	16.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -119,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	84.8	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	34.6	11.9
– Net Position:	-119,241	129,460	-10,219
– Gross Longs:	16,029	218,923	20,529
– Gross Shorts:	135,270	89,463	30,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	69.4	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-5.5	-15.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -63,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	65.6	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	29.5	16.6
– Net Position:	-63,300	70,205	-6,905
– Gross Longs:	28,493	127,546	25,334
– Gross Shorts:	91,793	57,341	32,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	71.8	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.7	-0.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	84.6	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.3	27.4	7.1
– Net Position:	-39,152	41,292	-2,140
– Gross Longs:	7,935	61,022	2,947
– Gross Shorts:	47,087	19,730	5,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	80.5	26.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-15.5	-10.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 39,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.4	41.2	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	65.4	4.0
– Net Position:	39,082	-36,259	-2,823
– Gross Longs:	80,167	61,831	3,195
– Gross Shorts:	41,085	98,090	6,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	55.6	7.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-5.2	-1.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 45,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.4	24.4	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	73.9	2.4
– Net Position:	45,115	-46,473	1,358
– Gross Longs:	67,079	22,960	3,599
– Gross Shorts:	21,964	69,433	2,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	5.3	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.7	-40.0	-1.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.2	2.2	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	5.5	5.3
– Net Position:	1,332	-897	-435
– Gross Longs:	22,388	591	985
– Gross Shorts:	21,056	1,488	1,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	41.1	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-15.9	-29.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Yen, Ultra T-Bonds, 5-Year & WTI Crude lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 8th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Yen’s safe haven status has been in demand with the recent market turmoil. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a maximum 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 15.4 this week. The overall net speculator position rose to a new all-time record high at a total of 147,067 net contracts this week with a boost of 25,293 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week a the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 97.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score rose by 10.5 points this week. The speculator position registered -200,310 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 53,719 contracts in speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nikkei 225 speculator level resides at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score increased by 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with an increase by 2,025 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the Brazil Real speculator level is at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score jumped by 40.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 45,115 net contracts this week with an advance by 8,080 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brent Oil speculator level sits at a 89.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 38.5 this week.

The speculator position was -6,838 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,995 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week a the 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score or the lowest of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -20.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,021,575 net contracts this week with a tiny rise by 102 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at just a 0.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.9 this week. The speculator position was 139,595 net contracts this week with a drop of -28,090 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level resides at a 6.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -35.8 this week while the overall speculator position was -1,078,470 net contracts this week with a decrease by -215,207 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the Wheat speculator level at 8.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.7 this week. The speculator position was -91,924 net contracts this week with a gain of 10,876 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

Finally, the Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 8.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.9 this week. The speculator position was -45,715 net contracts this week with a rise by 8,585 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower positioning.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-37,719 contracts), Platinum (-15,769 contracts), Silver (-10,742 contracts), Copper (-5,784 contracts), Palladium (-2,864 contracts) and with Steel (-318 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Platinum (14 percent) and Palladium (24 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (56.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.8 percent)
Silver (74.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (88.5 percent)
Copper (55.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (61.2 percent)
Platinum (14.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.4 percent)
Palladium (23.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (45.4 percent)
Steel (84.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.8 percent)

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-23 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-23.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.5 percent)
Silver (-8.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.5 percent)
Copper (4.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.4 percent)
Platinum (-40.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.2 percent)
Palladium (-19.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-16.8 percent)
Steel (-10.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-14.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 200,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -37,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	15.5	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	67.7	4.3
– Net Position:	200,715	-232,183	31,468
– Gross Longs:	269,833	69,214	50,486
– Gross Shorts:	69,118	301,397	19,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	38.7	84.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	20.1	18.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	22.9	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	64.4	8.7
– Net Position:	46,516	-64,022	17,506
– Gross Longs:	68,426	35,320	30,989
– Gross Shorts:	21,910	99,342	13,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	23.6	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	6.8	0.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	32.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	41.9	8.7
– Net Position:	24,241	-21,429	-2,812
– Gross Longs:	81,213	70,988	16,422
– Gross Shorts:	56,972	92,417	19,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	52.0	0.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	1.0	-38.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.4	24.4	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	34.2	5.1
– Net Position:	-794	-8,011	8,805
– Gross Longs:	43,763	19,992	13,005
– Gross Shorts:	44,557	28,003	4,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.1	75.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.1	35.1	20.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	49.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.0	5.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-10,728	9,849	879
– Gross Longs:	7,832	11,163	2,479
– Gross Shorts:	18,560	1,314	1,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	8.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	72.4	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	24.7	-28.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	60.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	65.5	0.7
– Net Position:	1,704	-1,701	-3
– Gross Longs:	10,947	21,324	231
– Gross Shorts:	9,243	23,025	234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	16.9	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	11.8	-37.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

13 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR-3M, Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (178,241 contracts) with the Fed Funds (68,611 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (53,719 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (28,282 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (14,494 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (102 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-215,207 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-46,367 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-35,300 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (98 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (19.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (26 percent) and the Fed Funds (40 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (26.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (46.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (63.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (77.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (72.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (97.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (49.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (58.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (25.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (16.3 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (10 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-37 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-36 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (-21 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-21 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-13.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-1.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-3.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-20.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-14.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-35.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-36.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-20.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-28.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (10.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (0.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-22.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (2.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-5.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 68,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	66.4	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	63.1	1.6
– Net Position:	-81,232	73,959	7,273
– Gross Longs:	409,747	1,465,598	43,016
– Gross Shorts:	490,979	1,391,639	35,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	55.5	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.0	-10.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -673,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 178,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -851,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	60.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	54.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-673,042	667,863	5,179
– Gross Longs:	1,272,616	6,456,441	32,612
– Gross Shorts:	1,945,658	5,788,578	27,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	74.1	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-1.7	-9.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -75,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -35,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	64.3	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	58.6	0.2
– Net Position:	-75,627	77,506	-1,879
– Gross Longs:	295,104	871,651	1,010
– Gross Shorts:	370,731	794,145	2,889
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.9	50.6	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-2.0	19.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,198,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,226,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	76.3	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	49.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,198,109	1,070,287	127,822
– Gross Longs:	606,624	3,069,452	240,732
– Gross Shorts:	1,804,733	1,999,165	112,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	78.5	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.2	-4.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,021,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,021,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	84.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	56.4	3.2
– Net Position:	-2,021,575	1,805,555	216,020
– Gross Longs:	466,812	5,463,500	422,475
– Gross Shorts:	2,488,387	3,657,945	206,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.4	92.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	22.5	9.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,078,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -215,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -863,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	78.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	59.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-1,078,470	916,013	162,457
– Gross Longs:	452,496	3,813,010	489,903
– Gross Shorts:	1,530,966	2,896,997	327,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	90.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.8	32.9	31.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -152,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -46,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	74.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	67.1	10.7
– Net Position:	-152,350	161,266	-8,916
– Gross Longs:	357,035	1,741,444	244,020
– Gross Shorts:	509,385	1,580,178	252,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	25.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.6	25.7	24.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -18,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	71.7	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	76.0	7.2
– Net Position:	-18,154	-80,689	98,843
– Gross Longs:	266,449	1,321,385	230,900
– Gross Shorts:	284,603	1,402,074	132,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.1	15.5	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.5	15.5	4.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -200,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 53,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -254,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	81.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	72.3	7.5
– Net Position:	-200,310	159,486	40,824
– Gross Longs:	138,304	1,483,087	178,385
– Gross Shorts:	338,614	1,323,601	137,561
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.9	0.0	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-24.5	46.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (36,626 contracts) with Wheat (10,876 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,585 contracts), Cotton (6,953 contracts) and Corn (6,013 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-15,926 contracts), Soybeans (-13,336 contracts), Lean Hogs (-12,418 contracts), Coffee (-10,584 contracts), Sugar (-8,246 contracts) and with Cocoa (-803 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (85 percent) and Coffee (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (68 percent) and Corn (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (8 percent), Soybean Meal (9 percent) and Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (56.4 percent)
Sugar (24.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (27.6 percent)
Coffee (68.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (78.3 percent)
Soybeans (45.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (48.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.1 percent)
Live Cattle (84.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (41.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (51.4 percent)
Cotton (16.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (12.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (28.9 percent)
Wheat (8.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Live Cattle & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (6 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (4 percent) and Soybean Oil (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-35 percent), Wheat (-23 percent) and Coffee (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-34.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (-39.3 percent)
Sugar (3.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.6 percent)
Coffee (-15.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-7.4 percent)
Soybeans (-1.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-27.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-13.4 percent)
Live Cattle (6.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-38.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-38.9 percent)
Cotton (5.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.0 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-9.6 percent)
Wheat (-22.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-50.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 172,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	43.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	50.6	10.0
– Net Position:	172,882	-125,804	-47,078
– Gross Longs:	418,031	789,352	134,781
– Gross Shorts:	245,149	915,156	181,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	44.7	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.9	31.5	41.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	52.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	58.6	6.9
– Net Position:	44,827	-54,103	9,276
– Gross Longs:	196,237	457,838	69,937
– Gross Shorts:	151,410	511,941	60,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	76.0	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-0.9	-10.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.2	41.4	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	67.4	3.8
– Net Position:	43,479	-45,041	1,562
– Gross Longs:	59,134	71,484	8,121
– Gross Shorts:	15,655	116,525	6,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	34.0	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	16.0	-18.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	51.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	46.7	7.9
– Net Position:	-16,848	38,620	-21,772
– Gross Longs:	162,286	444,500	47,252
– Gross Shorts:	179,134	405,880	69,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	56.2	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	-1.9	35.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 48,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 36,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	50.4	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	59.9	4.6
– Net Position:	48,710	-55,272	6,562
– Gross Longs:	125,853	291,213	33,176
– Gross Shorts:	77,143	346,485	26,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	35.6	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-1.1	-8.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,585 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	49.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	45.5	5.2
– Net Position:	-45,715	22,536	23,179
– Gross Longs:	117,689	306,004	55,308
– Gross Shorts:	163,404	283,468	32,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	86.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	0.8	33.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 107,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	29.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	53.9	14.4
– Net Position:	107,720	-87,154	-20,566
– Gross Longs:	167,089	105,590	30,987
– Gross Shorts:	59,369	192,744	51,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	16.1	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-7.6	-0.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	38.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	43.7	8.3
– Net Position:	18,059	-15,757	-2,302
– Gross Longs:	89,040	103,646	20,242
– Gross Shorts:	70,981	119,403	22,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	57.2	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.4	39.3	22.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	51.1	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	37.1	6.7
– Net Position:	-35,026	37,043	-2,017
– Gross Longs:	66,636	135,870	15,733
– Gross Shorts:	101,662	98,827	17,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	85.9	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-2.1	-30.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	41.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	64.1	6.2
– Net Position:	17,798	-21,878	4,080
– Gross Longs:	26,815	39,392	9,986
– Gross Shorts:	9,017	61,270	5,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	71.6	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.3	-6.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	35.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	17.1	7.8
– Net Position:	-91,924	87,969	3,955
– Gross Longs:	119,544	168,962	41,011
– Gross Shorts:	211,468	80,993	37,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.3	91.4	78.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	19.6	29.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

13 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Nasdaq, Russell & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq, Russell & DowJones

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (9,086 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,426 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (3,924 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was with the S&P500-Mini (-9,665 contracts) and with the VIX (-3,615 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stocks Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) and the VIX (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (78 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (77 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The DowJones-Mini (62 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above 50 percent which is the mid-point for the past 3 years.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (82.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (85.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (72.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (56.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (76.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (62.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (73.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (70.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (77.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (76.0 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (49 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (35 percent) and the Russell-Mini (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-2 percent) is the only market with a lower trend score currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (49.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (42.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (3.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-2.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	44.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	40.9	9.1
– Net Position:	-13,973	13,134	839
– Gross Longs:	106,385	167,484	35,156
– Gross Shorts:	120,358	154,350	34,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	19.1	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.0	-46.8	-0.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	71.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	72.3	9.2
– Net Position:	-28,687	-9,951	38,638
– Gross Longs:	321,451	1,677,831	252,928
– Gross Shorts:	350,138	1,687,782	214,290
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	33.4	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	14.6	-40.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	65.8	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	65.2	14.8
– Net Position:	1,320	419	-1,739
– Gross Longs:	9,192	48,549	9,211
– Gross Shorts:	7,872	48,130	10,950
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	38.8	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	2.1	-21.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	56.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	68.4	11.4
– Net Position:	24,264	-30,431	6,167
– Gross Longs:	73,557	143,676	35,189
– Gross Shorts:	49,293	174,107	29,022
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.8	20.9	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	12.8	-19.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	71.4	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	70.5	4.0
– Net Position:	-12,745	4,057	8,688
– Gross Longs:	85,645	323,667	26,618
– Gross Shorts:	98,390	319,610	17,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	26.4	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-2.8	-11.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,613 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	87.3	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	87.3	1.3
– Net Position:	-8,496	-168	8,664
– Gross Longs:	41,546	389,655	14,324
– Gross Shorts:	50,042	389,823	5,660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.5	26.0	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-6.1	18.4

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