Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen Bets

By InvestMacro

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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (117,939 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (24,478 contracts), EuroFX (14,356 contracts), British Pound (7,000 contracts), Australian Dollar (6,774 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (6,465 contracts), the US Dollar Index (5,302 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,015 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (640 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-2,785 contracts) with Bitcoin (-152 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boost US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen Bets

Highlighting the major Currency speculator positioning this week was the US Dollar Index and the Japanese Yen.

First up, the US Dollar Index speculator bets continue to improve and push higher in bullish territory. This week, the speculator bets rose for a third consecutive week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. This recent bullishness in speculator bets has pushed the overall net standing this week to +22,499 net contracts. This is the highest level of the last 190 weeks, dating back to December 13th of 2022 when the net position was over +25,000 contracts. The US Dollar Index speculator positions have now been above at least +10,000 contracts for eight consecutive weeks.

Despite the positive sentiment for the US Dollar Index, in the Foreign Exchange markets, the DXY price has now fallen for two consecutive weeks and dropped under the significant 100.00 level. The US Dollar Index had been above this level for the past six weeks but has now slid back into its trading range that had persisted for over the previous year. That range currently still has a top side of 100.00 with a bottom level support around the 96.50 threshold. It will be interesting to see where the US Dollar Index goes from here, whether rising interest rates can get the DXY back to above the 100.00 resistance, or if we fall back into this range for the time being.

Next up, the Japanese Yen speculator bets saw a giant reversal this week due to the Currency intervention by both the United States and Japan. This week’s speculator positioning saw an improvement by +117,939 contracts for the Japanese Yen, which is the highest one-week change on record. This has taken the Japanese Yen speculator position from a total of -163,412 net contracts on July 28th to this week’s total of -45,473 net contracts.

Speculators bailed on a lot of their bearish positioning due to the coordinated United States and Japan Currency intervention, which looked to stem the slide in the Japanese Yen. The Japanese Yen weakness against the US Dollar has hit remarkable low points, and in July, touched the lowest levels since 1986, according to Currency data from forex.com. The USD strength in July  touched the 163.98 level against the Yen and overtook the USDJPY levels of 2024 when the US Dollar hit a 161.95 high against the Yen. The USDJPY Currency pair retreated this week off those levels and closed at the 157.76 exchange rate. Currency interventions rarely work by themselves in the longer term without other policy changes but can dent the Japanese Yen’s slide in the short-term.

Bitcoin leads the Currencies Price Performances

In the major Currency markets, Bitcoin led the way this week with a 2.20% increase. The Mexican Peso came in next with a 1.16% rise, while the Canadian Dollar was higher by 0.63%. The Australian Dollar was up by 0.59% on the week, followed by the Euro, which saw a 0.3% increase.

The New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.25% and was followed by the British Pound Sterling, which was up by 0.13%, and the Swiss Franc, which was higher by 0.11%. The Brazilian Real rounds up the gainers with an edge higher by 0.08%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index dipped by -0.14% and was followed by the biggest decliner on the week, which was the Japanese Yen, and which fell by -0.70%.

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Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by US Dollar Index & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (100 percent) and Bitcoin (98 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (86 percent) and the Mexican Peso (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (7 percent), the EuroFX (7 percent) and the British Pound (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (100.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (86.4 percent)
EuroFX (6.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (38.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (5.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (36.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (35.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (8.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (35.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (55.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (52.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (86.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (68.7 percent)
Bitcoin (97.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (100.0 percent)

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Japanese Yen & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (28 percent) and the US Dollar Index (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (19 percent), the Swiss Franc (18 percent) and the Brazilian Real (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (24.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (10.3 percent)
EuroFX (-34.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-41.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-13.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-10.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-2.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (14.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.1 percent)
Bitcoin (3.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (6.7 percent)

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Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lift of 5,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,197 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.6	22.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	69.6	2.9
– Net Position:	22,499	-24,626	2,127
– Gross Longs:	35,247	11,665	3,661
– Gross Shorts:	12,748	36,291	1,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	78.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-20.7	-21.5

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -58,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position advance of 14,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,447 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	59.5	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	55.5	6.8
– Net Position:	-58,091	31,462	26,629
– Gross Longs:	201,847	475,669	80,953
– Gross Shorts:	259,938	444,207	54,324
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	91.9	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.5	30.5	-0.8

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -57,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,814 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	66.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	40.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-57,814	62,645	-4,831
– Gross Longs:	55,012	162,731	23,651
– Gross Shorts:	112,826	100,086	28,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	78.1	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-21.9	33.8

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position increase of 117,939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -163,412 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	53.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	41.0	9.4
– Net Position:	-45,473	50,568	-5,095
– Gross Longs:	147,228	222,390	34,510
– Gross Shorts:	192,701	171,822	39,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	63.7	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.7	-23.2	-24.2

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,462 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	75.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.2	33.5	21.7
– Net Position:	-32,822	45,974	-13,152
– Gross Longs:	11,270	82,724	10,584
– Gross Shorts:	44,092	36,750	23,736
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	74.4	23.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-17.1	9.7

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -179,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -2,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -176,310 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.7	83.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.8	32.5	10.4
– Net Position:	-179,095	187,008	-7,913
– Gross Longs:	13,514	305,631	29,943
– Gross Shorts:	192,609	118,623	37,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.4	93.2	28.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	12.6	3.7

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 6,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,964 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	53.1	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	48.0	6.5
– Net Position:	-33,190	12,324	20,866
– Gross Longs:	74,385	127,695	36,579
– Gross Shorts:	107,575	115,371	15,713
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	54.1	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	5.7	14.9

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -41,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 6,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,668 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	91.5	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	47.6	6.0
– Net Position:	-41,203	44,687	-3,484
– Gross Longs:	5,577	93,208	2,662
– Gross Shorts:	46,780	48,521	6,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.0	75.7	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-12.9	-10.3

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 76,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position increase of 4,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,528 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.6	41.3	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	78.9	1.1
– Net Position:	76,543	-81,853	5,310
– Gross Longs:	118,510	89,618	7,717
– Gross Shorts:	41,967	171,471	2,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.3	42.6	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.9	13.1

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 63,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 24,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,495 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.0	14.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	75.4	1.3
– Net Position:	63,973	-67,523	3,550
– Gross Longs:	89,256	16,578	4,958
– Gross Shorts:	25,283	84,101	1,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.5	13.1	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-14.6	1.2

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position fall of -152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,904 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	87.2	0.2	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.5	16.7	5.3
– Net Position:	3,752	-3,332	-420
– Gross Longs:	17,559	38	652
– Gross Shorts:	13,807	3,370	1,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	4.2	15.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-1.4	-7.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.