COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Heating Oil & Bloomberg Index

By InvestMacro

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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Heating Oil & Bloomberg Index

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Heating Oil (375 contracts) with the Bloomberg Index (270 contracts) also seeing a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Brent Oil (-11,191 contracts), WTI Crude (-7,665 contracts), Natural Gas (-6,747 contracts) and with Gasoline (-3,962 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

All major Energy markets were lower this week

The price performances for the Energy markets this week showed lower across-the-board returns. The Bloomberg Commodity Index had the smallest decrease this week with a -0.76% decline. Natural Gas was down by -3.09%, followed by Brent Oil, which dipped by -4.98% on the week.

Heating Oil decreased by -7.43% and was followed by WTI Crude Oil, which was lower by -9.93%.

Leading the declines this week was Gasoline, which fell by -14.40% over the past five days.

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Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Bloomberg Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (57.8 percent) and Bloomberg Index (53.2 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, Natural Gas (5.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was WTI Crude (23.4 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (23.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (25.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (38.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (56.1 percent)
Natural Gas (5.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (10.0 percent)
Gasoline (51.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (55.9 percent)
Heating Oil (57.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (57.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (52.9 percent)

 

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Heating Oil & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Heating Oil (15.6 percent) and Gasoline (6.8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-13.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-2.1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-0.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-1.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-2.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-3.7 percent)
Natural Gas (-13.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-11.1 percent)
Gasoline (6.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (11.6 percent)
Heating Oil (15.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (8.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (52.9 percent)

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Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 112,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -7,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,108 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	47.0	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	55.2	2.1
– Net Position:	112,443	-153,775	41,332
– Gross Longs:	308,841	887,525	80,311
– Gross Shorts:	196,398	1,041,300	38,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	69.8	82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	-0.4	6.6

 

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Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -25,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position fall of -11,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,648 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	35.0	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	24.3	3.2
– Net Position:	-25,839	23,363	2,476
– Gross Longs:	40,459	76,638	9,534
– Gross Shorts:	66,298	53,275	7,058
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	57.5	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	5.5	-21.3

 

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Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -197,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -6,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -190,799 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	32.9	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	21.9	2.6
– Net Position:	-197,546	187,214	10,332
– Gross Longs:	287,918	560,488	54,374
– Gross Shorts:	485,464	373,274	44,042
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	98.1	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	16.2	-11.6

 

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Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 58,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,269 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	37.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	60.3	4.4
– Net Position:	58,307	-70,299	11,992
– Gross Longs:	94,331	113,289	25,242
– Gross Shorts:	36,024	183,588	13,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	41.6	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-9.2	13.7

 

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#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position advance of 375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,520 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	41.1	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	54.5	10.7
– Net Position:	10,895	-34,152	23,257
– Gross Longs:	45,343	104,057	50,391
– Gross Shorts:	34,448	138,209	27,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	34.0	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-12.7	4.2

 

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Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -30,137 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position advance of 270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,407 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	45.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.4	30.4	0.0
– Net Position:	-30,137	29,554	583
– Gross Longs:	106,022	90,041	614
– Gross Shorts:	136,159	60,487	31
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	19.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	46.7	85.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	-0.3	85.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.