COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (15,564 contracts) with Copper (9,842 contracts) and Platinum (3,126 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-1,168 contracts), Silver (63 contracts) and Palladium (432 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Silver leads Metals Price Performances

In the major Metals markets this week, Silver was the standout performer with a 9.89% rise over the past five days. Palladium was next up with a 7.56% gain and followed by Gold, which was also above 7% with a 7.13% increase on the week. Platinum rose by 6.08% while Copper was higher by 1.94%, and Steel rounded out the gainers with a 1.47% increase.

Over the past 30 days, all the major Metals markets have higher returns led by Palladium with a 13.82% gain and then Platinum, which is up by 12.38% over the past 30 days.

Over the past 90 days, Steel leads the Metals markets with a 16.67% rise, followed by Copper with a 9.66% gain. The other four Metals markets all have lower returns over the past 90 days.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (98 percent) and Steel (72 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (24 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Platinum (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (45.4 percent)
Silver (24.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (24.2 percent)
Copper (98.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (89.6 percent)
Platinum (47.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.1 percent)
Palladium (63.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.4 percent)
Steel (71.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (77.4 percent)

 

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Gold & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (7 percent) and Copper (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.8 percent)
Silver (-2.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-3.9 percent)
Copper (4.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.2 percent)
Platinum (-0.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-7.4 percent)
Palladium (-7.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.0 percent)
Steel (-15.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-11.1 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 197,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 15,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 182,070 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.1	19.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	80.3	4.2
– Net Position:	197,634	-226,491	28,857
– Gross Longs:	227,013	71,832	44,531
– Gross Shorts:	29,379	298,323	15,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.7	45.4	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-8.5	14.0

 

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Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 22,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 63 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,217 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	29.6	23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	65.7	7.5
– Net Position:	22,280	-40,422	18,142
– Gross Longs:	36,454	33,118	26,507
– Gross Shorts:	14,174	73,540	8,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	72.6	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-0.3	9.2

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 77,123 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 9,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,281 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	29.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	59.0	3.8
– Net Position:	77,123	-86,169	9,046
– Gross Longs:	114,304	84,671	19,940
– Gross Shorts:	37,181	170,840	10,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.5	2.1	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-4.8	1.0

 

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Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position advance of 3,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,635 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.5	32.9	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	65.9	6.4
– Net Position:	14,761	-18,442	3,681
– Gross Longs:	23,151	18,375	7,241
– Gross Shorts:	8,390	36,817	3,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	58.9	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	1.7	-4.0

 

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Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,335 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,767 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	46.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.4	26.0	9.2
– Net Position:	-4,335	3,818	517
– Gross Longs:	6,697	8,648	2,227
– Gross Shorts:	11,032	4,830	1,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	41.0	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.0	-2.5

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position fall of -1,168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,639 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	64.8	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.0	86.4	0.2
– Net Position:	8,471	-8,706	235
– Gross Longs:	10,865	26,007	301
– Gross Shorts:	2,394	34,713	66
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	4.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	28.5	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	15.8	-14.3

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.