COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Cotton

By InvestMacro

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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (16,161 contracts) with Cotton (2,845 contracts), Cocoa (2,648 contracts) and Corn (748 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-36,215 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-20,520 contracts), Soybean Meal (-14,538 contracts), Wheat (-12,767 contracts), Lean Hogs (-6,467 contracts), Live Cattle (-735 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,553 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Sugar and Cocoa lead Soft Commodities markets price performances

Leading the Soft Commodities price performances this week was Sugar, with a strong gain of 12.56% on the week. Cocoa came in second with a 6.12% rise for the week, while Cotton rose by 3.34%. Next up, Wheat was higher than 1% with a 1.60% rise, followed by Soybean Oil, which was higher by 1.22% over these past five days.

Corn rounds out the gainers with a slight edge higher by 0.05%.

On the downside, Live Cattle was lower by -0.79%, while Soybeans dipped by -2.14% and Soybean Meal dipped by a similar -2.15%. Lean Hogs dropped by -3.09%, and Coffee was the biggest decliner on the week with a -5.56% decrease.

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Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Cotton & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (96 percent) and Wheat (87 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (83 percent), Soybean Meal (79 percent) and Corn (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (10 percent) and Cocoa (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Live Cattle (21 percent) and the Sugar (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (70.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (70.8 percent)
Sugar (37.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (33.9 percent)
Coffee (48.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (50.7 percent)
Soybeans (82.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (90.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (63.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (71.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (79.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (85.4 percent)
Live Cattle (20.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (21.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.5 percent)
Cotton (96.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (94.7 percent)
Cocoa (18.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (16.2 percent)
Wheat (86.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (97.6 percent)

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Wheat & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (28 percent) and Corn (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (20 percent), Soybeans (17 percent) and Cocoa (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (26.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (24.0 percent)
Sugar (13.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.4 percent)
Coffee (9.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.3 percent)
Soybeans (16.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (20.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-6.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (26.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-53.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-50.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (4.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.0 percent)
Cotton (7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.8 percent)
Cocoa (15.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (13.7 percent)
Wheat (28.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (41.0 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 255,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 748 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,320 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	39.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	51.1	10.4
– Net Position:	255,068	-208,345	-46,723
– Gross Longs:	480,857	692,874	136,323
– Gross Shorts:	225,789	901,219	183,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	25.6	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-29.1	-4.1

 

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SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -68,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 16,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,629 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	46.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	41.1	6.8
– Net Position:	-68,468	59,519	8,949
– Gross Longs:	278,300	493,346	80,800
– Gross Shorts:	346,768	433,827	71,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.2	63.4	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-13.8	14.5

 

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COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,408 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	38.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	54.5	3.4
– Net Position:	24,855	-27,013	2,158
– Gross Longs:	51,652	64,932	7,960
– Gross Shorts:	26,797	91,945	5,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	52.0	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-11.6	38.6

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 175,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -36,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 211,757 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	45.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	60.9	6.9
– Net Position:	175,542	-156,752	-18,790
– Gross Longs:	252,620	446,416	49,474
– Gross Shorts:	77,078	603,168	68,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	16.7	54.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-19.2	30.2

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 80,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -20,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,912 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	49.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	63.8	3.8
– Net Position:	80,392	-90,659	10,267
– Gross Longs:	131,288	307,021	33,870
– Gross Shorts:	50,896	397,680	23,603
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.1	35.8	69.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	10.8	5.1

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 109,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position fall of -14,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,705 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	41.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	63.1	4.1
– Net Position:	109,167	-131,015	21,848
– Gross Longs:	170,830	253,321	46,690
– Gross Shorts:	61,663	384,336	24,842
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	21.3	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-21.2	14.7

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,323 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	38.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	50.9	11.5
– Net Position:	43,588	-35,739	-7,849
– Gross Longs:	97,639	112,888	25,612
– Gross Shorts:	54,051	148,627	33,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.6	77.9	70.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.1	60.7	17.1

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -6,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,430 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	43.3	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.4	23.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-48,897	51,254	-2,357
– Gross Longs:	69,908	113,471	16,958
– Gross Shorts:	118,805	62,217	19,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	92.6	70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-2.9	-24.4

 

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COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 96,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position uptick of 2,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,531 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	35.7	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	67.4	2.3
– Net Position:	96,376	-105,126	8,750
– Gross Longs:	134,415	118,292	16,290
– Gross Shorts:	38,039	223,418	7,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	6.5	66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-7.9	10.4

 

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COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,556 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	50.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	49.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-2,908	1,589	1,319
– Gross Longs:	36,448	101,788	10,628
– Gross Shorts:	39,356	100,199	9,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	80.3	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-14.7	1.3

 

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WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -12,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,992 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	35.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	32.3	7.7
– Net Position:	-14,759	16,387	-1,628
– Gross Longs:	117,112	166,948	34,362
– Gross Shorts:	131,871	150,561	35,990
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	16.8	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-27.9	-8.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.