InvestMacro

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 4-week high, CAD bets rise

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher overall this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian dollar (9,102 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,260 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,466 contracts), Brazilian real (1,237 contracts), Euro (1,161 contracts), Mexican peso (862 contracts) and Bitcoin (385 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Australian dollar (-4,237 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-2,256 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-515 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-387 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Notes:

Highlighting the forex markets COT data this week was the continued strength of the US Dollar Index. The speculative position for the US Dollar Index gained again this week for a second straight week and after falling in the previous three weeks. These gains bring the overall net bullish position back over the +40,000 contract level for the first time since June 28th and for the fourth time in the past seven weeks. The Dollar Index positioning has been super-strong much like the Dollar Index price that has been trading near its highest levels in approximately twenty years. The Dollar Index speculator positions have now been above the +30,000 contract level for fifteen straight weeks and has been in a bullish standing for fifty-six weeks and counting.

Canadian dollar positions gained this week for a second straight week and the net position hit a seven-week high. Canadian dollar speculator positions have, more or less, been fluctuating for almost a year and recently had a 5-week spell of bearish levels from May to June before becoming bullish again in late-June and July. The CAD speculator position has been in a small bullish level for the past seven weeks and is now at +15,769 contracts.

Euro bets rebounded a bit this week by just over +1,100 contracts and halted a three-week streak of declines. The Euro speculator position has been sharply down-trending over the past eight weeks and has fallen by a total of -93,856 contracts since June 7th. This drop in Euro bets reversed a +52,272 net contract level from May 31st to a total of -41,584 net contract level this week. The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar (EURUSD) remains very close to parity at just over 1.200 currently after edging out a couple of weekly gains in forex market trading.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	60,456	90	40,535	93	-43,313	7	2,778	47
EUR	694,099	80	-41,584	22	18,656	81	22,928	12
GBP	225,889	55	-53,990	35	70,959	72	-16,969	20
JPY	229,219	75	-61,481	31	73,773	72	-12,292	28
CHF	44,081	29	-11,299	28	20,610	76	-9,311	26
CAD	144,182	26	15,769	57	-22,197	50	6,428	43
AUD	156,473	50	-47,385	41	50,601	57	-3,216	45
NZD	46,471	37	-4,186	64	7,608	42	-3,422	12
MXN	195,025	47	-29,898	15	26,859	84	3,039	56
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	41,645	29	11,712	62	-12,610	39	898	75
Bitcoin	14,957	87	-121	78	-118	0	239	18

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (92.5 percent) continues to lead the strength scores and rose a bit this week as speculator net position increased. The Dollar Index is in a bullish extreme level at over 90 percent compared to its three-year range. Bitcoin (78.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (64.2 percent) and then the Brazil Real (61.9 percent). On the downside, the Mexican Peso (14.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The EuroFX (22.2 percent), Swiss Franc (27.9 percent) and the Japanese Yen (31.0 percent) round out the next lowest scores this week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (92.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.1 percent)
EuroFX (22.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (21.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (32.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (28.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (46.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (64.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (65.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.2 percent)
Brazil Real (61.9 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (60.7 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (71.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound Sterling (8.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (5.1 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (4.4 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Brazilian Real (-34.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Bitcoin (-21.5 percent) followed by the Swiss Franc (-11.4 percent) and the EuroFX (-10.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.9 percent)
EuroFX (-10.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-28.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (8.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (9.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-11.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-3.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (27.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-1.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-27.1 percent)
Brazil Real (-34.9 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-35.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-21.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-18.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.9	4.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	75.8	4.1
– Net Position:	40,535	-43,313	2,778
– Gross Longs:	51,337	2,492	5,227
– Gross Shorts:	10,802	45,805	2,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	7.0	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	7.0	-5.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	56.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	53.9	8.7
– Net Position:	-41,584	18,656	22,928
– Gross Longs:	198,041	393,062	83,007
– Gross Shorts:	239,625	374,406	60,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	81.3	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	13.4	-19.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -53,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	74.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	43.1	15.3
– Net Position:	-53,990	70,959	-16,969
– Gross Longs:	34,606	168,266	17,551
– Gross Shorts:	88,596	97,307	34,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	71.6	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-6.0	-3.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -61,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	68.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	36.7	15.7
– Net Position:	-61,481	73,773	-12,292
– Gross Longs:	43,812	157,963	23,671
– Gross Shorts:	105,293	84,190	35,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	71.6	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-6.2	8.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	61.7	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	14.9	40.8
– Net Position:	-11,299	20,610	-9,311
– Gross Longs:	8,138	27,195	8,653
– Gross Shorts:	19,437	6,585	17,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	76.3	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	3.9	6.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	42.9	23.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	58.3	19.0
– Net Position:	15,769	-22,197	6,428
– Gross Longs:	46,414	61,869	33,790
– Gross Shorts:	30,645	84,066	27,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	50.2	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.7	-1.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -47,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	65.4	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.5	33.1	14.4
– Net Position:	-47,385	50,601	-3,216
– Gross Longs:	30,024	102,398	19,361
– Gross Shorts:	77,409	51,797	22,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	56.6	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.4	-4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	57.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	40.6	12.2
– Net Position:	-4,186	7,608	-3,422
– Gross Longs:	17,311	26,498	2,249
– Gross Shorts:	21,497	18,890	5,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	42.1	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-3.3	-5.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -29,898 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	46.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.9	32.9	1.4
– Net Position:	-29,898	26,859	3,039
– Gross Longs:	96,752	90,972	5,815
– Gross Shorts:	126,650	64,113	2,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.6	84.0	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	1.5	-0.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.5	41.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	71.3	5.8
– Net Position:	11,712	-12,610	898
– Gross Longs:	20,614	17,103	3,296
– Gross Shorts:	8,902	29,713	2,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	39.0	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.9	35.0	-4.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.4	3.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.2	3.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-121	-118	239
– Gross Longs:	9,778	449	1,160
– Gross Shorts:	9,899	567	921
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	50.9	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	48.1	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

30 Jul

Precious Metals Speculator bets lower as Silver bets go bearish for 1st time since 2019

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: Week 30

COT precious metals speculator bets were lower again this week as just one out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

The only precious metals market to see higher speculator bets this week was Palladium with a gain of 343 contracts.

The metals leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Silver (-5,860 contracts) and Copper (-2,726 contracts) with Gold (-2,265 contracts) and Platinum (-186 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the metals COT data this week was the continued drop in speculator bets for the Silver contracts. Silver speculative bets have now fallen for seven consecutive weeks (a total decline of -21,904 contracts over that period) and for a whopping thirteen out of the past fourteen weeks (a total decline of -50,929 contracts over 14 weeks). This speculator sentiment weakness has now brought the overall net position into bearish territory (-4,500 contracts this week) for the first time since June 4th of 2019, a span of 164 weeks. The Silver position has only seen approximately 30 weeks in bearish territory over the past ten years with a seventeen-week streak of bearish positions in 2018 dominating this data. These negative net positions for Silver are rare and usually only persist for a short time so it will be interesting to see if this is some type of bottom for Silver speculators or if this will continue. The Silver futures price did get a boost this week and rose back over the $20 level ($18.54 weekly open vs $20.19 close) after hitting two-year lows recently just above the $18.00 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,597,451	2	259,260	0	-283,489	100	24,229	49
Gold	487,515	10	92,690	0	-108,422	100	15,732	0
Silver	147,784	14	-4,500	0	-2,653	100	7,153	4
Copper	183,958	15	-26,562	23	26,839	78	-277	24
Palladium	7,124	4	-3,408	4	3,894	97	-486	16
Platinum	73,423	45	-4,468	2	-171	98	4,639	27
Natural Gas	976,126	4	-118,290	43	83,028	57	35,262	64
Brent	177,837	22	-41,482	42	40,557	61	925	22
Heating Oil	269,127	23	18,684	70	-33,531	36	14,847	50
Soybeans	583,850	0	85,241	40	-57,573	66	-27,668	24
Corn	1,320,768	2	186,528	54	-138,899	52	-47,629	16
Coffee	199,536	5	28,641	64	-28,867	43	226	2
Sugar	722,469	4	64,103	50	-65,756	56	1,653	10
Wheat	301,674	6	25	19	8,068	71	-8,093	68

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) continue to illustrate how out of favor the metals markets have been and continue to be for speculators. Copper (23.2 percent) leads the metals market in strength scores and is just out of a bearish extreme reading (below 20 percent) and fell a few points from last week. On the downside, Gold (0.0 percent) and Silver (0.0 percent) continue to make new 3-year low levels and are followed by Platinum (2.0 percent) and Palladium (3.7 percent). All four of these markets are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent) and have been for multiple weeks.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.9 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (7.1 percent)
Copper (23.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.2 percent)
Platinum (2.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.2 percent)
Palladium (3.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (3.7 percent) had the only positive six-weeks trends for metals this week. Gold (-23.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by Silver (-22.5 percent) with Copper (-9.2 percent) and Platinum (-9.1 percent) coming in next with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-23.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-30.8 percent)
Silver (-22.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-19.5 percent)
Copper (-9.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-14.5 percent)
Platinum (-9.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-13.9 percent)
Palladium (3.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 92,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	29.1	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	51.4	5.6
– Net Position:	92,690	-108,422	15,732
– Gross Longs:	241,661	142,007	42,821
– Gross Shorts:	148,971	250,429	27,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	25.3	-25.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	42.0	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	43.8	10.3
– Net Position:	-4,500	-2,653	7,153
– Gross Longs:	54,671	62,080	22,309
– Gross Shorts:	59,171	64,733	15,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	3.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	19.8	-4.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	47.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	32.8	7.9
– Net Position:	-26,562	26,839	-277
– Gross Longs:	52,377	87,146	14,193
– Gross Shorts:	78,939	60,307	14,470
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	77.9	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	11.4	-21.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,282 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	38.4	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	38.7	5.1
– Net Position:	-4,468	-171	4,639
– Gross Longs:	31,027	28,217	8,349
– Gross Shorts:	35,495	28,388	3,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	98.2	26.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	8.6	0.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	70.4	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.0	15.7	19.4
– Net Position:	-3,408	3,894	-486
– Gross Longs:	724	5,012	898
– Gross Shorts:	4,132	1,118	1,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	96.6	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-2.6	-10.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

30 Jul

COT Week 30 Charts: Bonds Speculators bets fall this week led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds Futures (33,590 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (4,781 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 10-Year Bond (-91,156 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-57,158 contracts) with the Eurodollar (-40,034 contracts), the 2-Year Bond (-26,811 contracts), the Long US Bond (-4,543 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-4,479 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,398,092	11	-2,683,939	4	2,957,409	94	-273,470	44
FedFunds	1,885,799	71	147,168	58	-139,549	43	-7,619	40
2-Year	2,018,244	10	-89,864	64	160,604	55	-70,740	19
Long T-Bond	1,183,499	42	-46,645	69	28,896	21	17,749	67
10-Year	3,504,780	30	-199,860	42	266,234	54	-66,374	64
5-Year	3,988,929	51	-315,173	28	449,869	68	-134,696	44

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (69.4 percent) continues to lead the strength scores although it has been cooling off over the past weeks. The 2-Year Bond (64.1 percent) and the Fed Funds (57.8 percent) come in as the next highest bonds markets in strength scores this week with both over 50 percent (or the midway point of their 3-year range). On the downside, the Eurodollar (3.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently – at an extreme bearish position and near the bottom of its three-year range. The Ultra 10-Year Bond is the next lowest at 20.8 percent followed by the 5-Year Bond (27.9 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (57.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (64.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (69.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (27.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (37.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (55.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (70.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (42.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (44.1 percent)
Eurodollar (3.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (4.3 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bond (14.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bond (13.1 percent), the Fed Funds (4.5 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (0.9 percent) round out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The 5-Year Bond (-21.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Eurodollar (-15.3 percent) followed by the US Treasury Bond (-5.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (7.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (13.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (10.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-5.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
Eurodollar (-15.3 percent) vs Eurodollar (0.0 percent)

Individual Markets

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,683,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -40,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,643,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	71.5	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	40.1	7.3
– Net Position:	-2,683,939	2,957,409	-273,470
– Gross Longs:	397,570	6,724,178	413,933
– Gross Shorts:	3,081,509	3,766,769	687,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	93.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	13.1	20.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 147,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 33,590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,578 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	71.4	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	78.8	2.1
– Net Position:	147,168	-139,549	-7,619
– Gross Longs:	290,967	1,346,037	32,709
– Gross Shorts:	143,799	1,485,586	40,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.9	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-2.9	-31.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -89,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -26,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,053 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	80.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	72.0	10.3
– Net Position:	-89,864	160,604	-70,740
– Gross Longs:	239,980	1,613,664	137,474
– Gross Shorts:	329,844	1,453,060	208,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	55.0	19.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-14.8	-1.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -315,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -57,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -258,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	83.9	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	72.7	10.5
– Net Position:	-315,173	449,869	-134,696
– Gross Longs:	314,696	3,348,396	283,150
– Gross Shorts:	629,869	2,898,527	417,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	68.2	44.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	9.4	12.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -199,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -91,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	80.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	72.5	11.9
– Net Position:	-199,860	266,234	-66,374
– Gross Longs:	266,814	2,805,832	351,590
– Gross Shorts:	466,674	2,539,598	417,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	53.5	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-12.8	24.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -30,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,707 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	83.0	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	70.0	21.6
– Net Position:	-30,926	151,176	-120,250
– Gross Longs:	59,468	967,242	131,774
– Gross Shorts:	90,394	816,066	252,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	79.1	47.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-16.1	8.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -46,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	77.9	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	75.5	12.9
– Net Position:	-46,645	28,896	17,749
– Gross Longs:	83,344	922,508	169,862
– Gross Shorts:	129,989	893,612	152,113
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	20.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	-5.3	25.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -350,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.7	84.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	61.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-350,261	301,568	48,693
– Gross Longs:	49,191	1,120,969	154,740
– Gross Shorts:	399,452	819,401	106,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	62.5	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	-4.8	13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing

30 Jul

COT Week 30 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets slightly higher led by Live Cattle & Soybean Meal

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (13,971 contracts) and Soybean Meal (5,833 contracts) with Lean Hogs (5,802 contracts), Cocoa (4,010 contracts), Cotton (1,447 contracts) and Coffee (662 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-63,059 contracts) and Corn (-23,412 contracts) with Soybeans (-17,352 contracts), Wheat (-6,497 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-6,295 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,597,451	2	259,260	0	-283,489	100	24,229	49
Gold	487,515	10	92,690	0	-108,422	100	15,732	0
Silver	147,784	14	-4,500	0	-2,653	100	7,153	4
Copper	183,958	15	-26,562	23	26,839	78	-277	24
Palladium	7,124	4	-3,408	4	3,894	97	-486	16
Platinum	73,423	45	-4,468	2	-171	98	4,639	27
Natural Gas	976,126	4	-118,290	43	83,028	57	35,262	64
Brent	177,837	22	-41,482	42	40,557	61	925	22
Heating Oil	269,127	23	18,684	70	-33,531	36	14,847	50
Soybeans	583,850	0	85,241	40	-57,573	66	-27,668	24
Corn	1,320,768	2	186,528	54	-138,899	52	-47,629	16
Coffee	199,536	5	28,641	64	-28,867	43	226	2
Sugar	722,469	4	64,103	50	-65,756	56	1,653	10
Wheat	301,674	6	25	19	8,068	71	-8,093	68

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (86.8 percent) has seen rising speculator sentiment recently and is currently in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (63.6 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores followed by Corn (53.9 percent) and Sugar (49.8 percent). On the downside, Wheat (19.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently, followed by Soybean Oil (19.9 percent) and both of these markets have bearish extreme readings.

Strength Statistics:
Corn (53.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (56.8 percent)
Sugar (49.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (62.8 percent)
Coffee (63.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (63.0 percent)
Soybeans (40.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (45.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (86.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (83.5 percent)
Live Cattle (24.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (6.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (45.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (39.0 percent)
Cotton (47.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (46.7 percent)
Cocoa (21.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.0 percent)
Wheat (19.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (27.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Lean Hogs (30.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Meal (9.8 percent), Cocoa (6.6 percent) and Live Cattle (4.0 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Soybean Oil (-34.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Soybeans (-29.6 percent), Corn (-27.2 percent), Wheat (-26.6 percent) and Sugar (-21.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-27.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-23.2 percent)
Sugar (-21.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-14.0 percent)
Coffee (-15.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-18.0 percent)
Soybeans (-29.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-22.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-34.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-34.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.1 percent)
Live Cattle (4.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-4.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (30.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (20.8 percent)
Cotton (-17.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-21.0 percent)
Cocoa (6.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.8 percent)
Wheat (-26.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-22.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 186,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -23,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 209,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	49.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	59.7	13.3
– Net Position:	186,528	-138,899	-47,629
– Gross Longs:	330,027	649,795	128,521
– Gross Shorts:	143,499	788,694	176,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.9	52.1	15.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.2	29.2	4.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -63,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 127,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	52.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	61.5	8.8
– Net Position:	64,103	-65,756	1,653
– Gross Longs:	181,773	378,486	64,876
– Gross Shorts:	117,670	444,242	63,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	55.7	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	25.1	-32.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	53.7	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.9	68.2	3.7
– Net Position:	28,641	-28,867	226
– Gross Longs:	46,313	107,155	7,626
– Gross Shorts:	17,672	136,022	7,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.6	43.0	1.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	17.7	-11.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 85,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,593 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	54.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	64.2	11.2
– Net Position:	85,241	-57,573	-27,668
– Gross Longs:	143,708	317,204	37,501
– Gross Shorts:	58,467	374,777	65,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	66.3	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.6	29.3	-1.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	59.4	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	65.8	6.3
– Net Position:	21,030	-23,477	2,447
– Gross Longs:	64,485	218,590	25,574
– Gross Shorts:	43,455	242,067	23,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	82.4	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.9	38.5	-42.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 106,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	41.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.0	72.9	6.5
– Net Position:	106,507	-126,394	19,887
– Gross Longs:	118,336	162,661	45,699
– Gross Shorts:	11,829	289,055	25,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.8	17.2	36.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-6.1	-31.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	38.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	52.6	12.7
– Net Position:	35,927	-34,885	-1,042
– Gross Longs:	89,822	97,766	30,957
– Gross Shorts:	53,895	132,651	31,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	65.5	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-6.5	5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,619 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	35.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	48.2	13.6
– Net Position:	35,421	-27,182	-8,239
– Gross Longs:	79,022	73,074	19,948
– Gross Shorts:	43,601	100,256	28,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	61.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-32.4	-3.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	45.5	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	68.0	5.2
– Net Position:	39,198	-41,405	2,207
– Gross Longs:	68,502	83,618	11,696
– Gross Shorts:	29,304	125,023	9,489
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	53.9	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	20.1	-45.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	44.4	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	46.0	3.9
– Net Position:	3,408	-5,134	1,726
– Gross Longs:	94,825	139,108	13,968
– Gross Shorts:	91,417	144,242	12,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	80.9	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-4.9	-17.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,497 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	40.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	37.8	12.3
– Net Position:	25	8,068	-8,093
– Gross Longs:	88,400	122,221	28,925
– Gross Shorts:	88,375	114,153	37,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	71.1	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.6	37.2	-29.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Soft Commodities

30 Jul

COT Week 30 Charts: Energy Speculator bets rise higher led by Heating Oil & Gasoline

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (9,441 contracts) with Gasoline (5,588 contracts), Natural Gas (2,033 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-180 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-11,831 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,535 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,597,451	2	259,260	0	-283,489	100	24,229	49
Gold	487,515	10	92,690	0	-108,422	100	15,732	0
Silver	147,784	14	-4,500	0	-2,653	100	7,153	4
Copper	183,958	15	-26,562	23	26,839	78	-277	24
Palladium	7,124	4	-3,408	4	3,894	97	-486	16
Platinum	73,423	45	-4,468	2	-171	98	4,639	27
Natural Gas	976,126	4	-118,290	43	83,028	57	35,262	64
Brent	177,837	22	-41,482	42	40,557	61	925	22
Heating Oil	269,127	23	18,684	70	-33,531	36	14,847	50
Soybeans	583,850	0	85,241	40	-57,573	66	-27,668	24
Corn	1,320,768	2	186,528	54	-138,899	52	-47,629	16
Coffee	199,536	5	28,641	64	-28,867	43	226	2
Sugar	722,469	4	64,103	50	-65,756	56	1,653	10
Wheat	301,674	6	25	19	8,068	71	-8,093	68

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (69.9 percent) leads the energy markets this week and is up from 56.0 percent last week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.6 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores but has been down-trending in past weeks followed by Natural Gas (43.1 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (41.6 percent). On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is at the bottom of its three-year range. Gasoline (17.4 percent) is the next lowest and joins the WTI Crude in a bearish extreme level (under 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (41.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (41.9 percent)
Natural Gas (43.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (42.5 percent)
Gasoline (17.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (11.8 percent)
Heating Oil (69.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (56.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (53.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (15.0 percent) has the highest six-week trend for energy this week. Gasoline (14.0 percent) and Natural Gas (1.6 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-28.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were WTI Crude Oil (-13.2 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-8.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-13.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-17.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-8.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-8.7 percent)
Natural Gas (1.6 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-1.8 percent)
Gasoline (14.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.4 percent)
Heating Oil (15.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (6.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-28.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-22.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 259,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 271,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	37.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	55.0	3.5
– Net Position:	259,260	-283,489	24,229
– Gross Longs:	368,453	595,032	79,895
– Gross Shorts:	109,193	878,521	55,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	17.9	-20.4

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	53.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	30.4	3.4
– Net Position:	-41,482	40,557	925
– Gross Longs:	26,547	94,590	7,001
– Gross Shorts:	68,029	54,033	6,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	60.7	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	9.9	-11.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	40.1	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	31.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-118,290	83,028	35,262
– Gross Longs:	183,441	391,771	65,474
– Gross Shorts:	301,731	308,743	30,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	57.0	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	2.8	-32.8

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,816 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	48.8	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	68.5	5.8
– Net Position:	45,404	-50,319	4,915
– Gross Longs:	74,431	124,784	19,651
– Gross Shorts:	29,027	175,103	14,736
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	83.1	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-6.4	-48.6

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	52.0	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	64.5	9.8
– Net Position:	18,684	-33,531	14,847
– Gross Longs:	43,158	139,948	41,336
– Gross Shorts:	24,474	173,479	26,489
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	35.6	49.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-5.2	-18.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	76.6	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	54.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-15,663	15,400	263
– Gross Longs:	14,435	53,388	374
– Gross Shorts:	30,098	37,988	111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	52.5	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	29.4	-11.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing

30 Jul

COT Week 30 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets lower as S&P500 positions drop

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE Mini (8,866 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (3,692 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-29,487 contracts) and the VIX (-22,665 contracts) with the Dow Jones Mini (-5,348 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-4,522 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (-1,263 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the stock markets COT data this week was the continued drop in speculator bets for the S&P500 mini contracts. The SP500 mini spec positions declined for the fifth time in the past six weeks and have now seen a total of -271,913 contracts fall off the net position since June 14th (when the net position was at a total of +34,278 contracts). The current standing for speculators this week is a total of -237,635 contracts. This marks the lowest level since June 16th of 2020 which was shortly after global markets were rocked by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,322,824	9	-237,635	12	290,090	100	-52,455	15
Nikkei 225	13,545	8	-4,390	57	3,684	48	706	37
Nasdaq-Mini	267,158	52	31,809	93	-25,473	11	-6,336	35
DowJones-Mini	73,288	32	-21,185	9	27,106	96	-5,921	7
VIX	300,870	27	-92,565	63	99,524	38	-6,959	58
Nikkei 225 Yen	58,458	41	6,189	53	22,278	83	-28,467	16

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (92.8 percent) continues to lead the stock markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (62.9 percent) and the Nikkei USD (56.6 percent) come in as the next highest stocks markets in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell2000-Mini (7.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent), the S&P500-Mini (12.2 percent) and the EAFE-Mini (18.6 percent). These four markets are all in extreme bearish readings.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (62.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (74.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (17.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (92.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (7.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (10.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (62.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (1.9 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. These two markets are the only markets currently with positive six-week scores. The S&P500-Mini (-50.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the EAFE-Mini (-24.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-9.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (-6.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-50.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-35.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (5.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (1.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (6.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-5.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-15.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-9.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-21.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-24.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-30.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -92,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	62.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	29.2	10.3
– Net Position:	-92,565	99,524	-6,959
– Gross Longs:	35,596	187,508	23,954
– Gross Shorts:	128,161	87,984	30,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.9	37.6	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	9.2	-2.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -237,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	77.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	64.8	11.8
– Net Position:	-237,635	290,090	-52,455
– Gross Longs:	240,642	1,795,164	221,627
– Gross Shorts:	478,277	1,505,074	274,082
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	100.0	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.4	48.5	-9.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	64.0	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	27.0	21.8
– Net Position:	-21,185	27,106	-5,921
– Gross Longs:	15,955	46,903	10,025
– Gross Shorts:	37,140	19,797	15,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	95.7	6.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	3.3	-20.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,117 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	53.3	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	62.9	15.1
– Net Position:	31,809	-25,473	-6,336
– Gross Longs:	83,491	142,520	33,962
– Gross Shorts:	51,682	167,993	40,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.8	10.8	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-2.8	2.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -105,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	88.0	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	68.8	4.3
– Net Position:	-105,211	110,009	-4,798
– Gross Longs:	42,107	502,434	19,764
– Gross Shorts:	147,318	392,425	24,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.6	92.7	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	10.7	-32.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,127 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	60.6	28.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	33.4	23.1
– Net Position:	-4,390	3,684	706
– Gross Longs:	1,478	8,204	3,832
– Gross Shorts:	5,868	4,520	3,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.6	48.1	37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	8.2	4.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	91.9	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	88.5	1.4
– Net Position:	-16,807	13,755	3,052
– Gross Longs:	20,928	376,015	8,694
– Gross Shorts:	37,735	362,260	5,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	86.7	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	22.1	28.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Stock Market News

29 Jul

Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming “Econocalypse”

This suggests “a burgeoning slowdown in economic activity”

By Elliott Wave International

It may seem strange to bring up deflation when surveys show that inflation is the public’s number one worry.

But who would have thought that inflation would become a big issue, say, just two years ago?

Right — a relatively small percentage of people. The point is: Things can unexpectedly change — fast.

Consider the price of commodities: The Goldman Sachs Spot Commodity Index hit a high on March 8, and so did the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Crude oil futures made an intraday high on March 7 and a closing high on March 8. Platinum reached a closing high on March 7.

The July Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, mentioned other commodities which also made highs during the same time as it showed this chart and said:

Aluminum, copper and zinc topped [on March 7], as did nickel and lead. The significant price declines since March 7-8 suggest a burgeoning slowdown in world economic activity and may mark a tipping point from inflationary pressures to deflationary ones.

So, you see why deflation is not such a far-fetched notion after all.

Indeed, at least a couple of other factors point to “a burgeoning slowdown in world economic activity.”

The first is widespread layoffs. Just a few months ago, technology companies were on a major hiring spree, which is in stark contrast from what’s going on now (Marketwatch, June 21):

From Great Resignation to Forced Resignation: Tech companies are shifting to layoffs after a huge ramp up in hiring

Layoffs have also been notable in cryptocurrency and real estate companies.

Another indication of a global economic slowdown can be summed up in this headline from FreightWaves, a supply chain industry information company (June 7):

US Import Demand is Dropping Off a Cliff

U.S. containerized imports from all countries declined 36% year-over-year.

Getting back to commodities, the Elliott wave model can help you determine “what’s next” with a high degree of confidence.

While no analytical method can see into the future, Elliott waves do reflect the repetitive patterns of investor psychology. Here’s what Frost & Prechter said in their Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

The Wave Principle is governed by man’s social nature, and since he has such a nature, its expression generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.

You can access the entire online version of the book for free once you become a member of Club EWI — the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community (about 500,000 worldwide members and growing).

A Club EWI membership is also free and opens the door to complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on financial markets, investing and trading.

Click the link to get started right away: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get instant and free access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming “Econocalypse”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Metals

29 Jul

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 29.07.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Having completed the ascending wave at 1.0222, EURUSD is trading close to the bearish channel’s upside border. Possibly, today the pair may fall towards 1.0077 and then form a new consolidation range around 1.0177.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD continue growing towards 1.2227 and may later fall to break 1.2100 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 1.1963.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY continues falling with the short-term target at 132.55. After that, the instrument may correct up to 135.00 and then form a new descending structure to reach 131.11.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Having finished the descending wave at 0.9511, USDCHF is expected to start another growth to break 0.9572. Later, the market may continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9738.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still consolidating around 0.7000. Possibly, today the pair may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6930.

BRENT

Brent continues consolidating around 105.55. Today, the asset may form one more ascending wave with the short-term target at 108.88. After that, the instrument may correct to test 105.55 from above and then start another growth to reach 111.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has reached the short-term upside target at 1762.40. Today, the metal may start another correction to test 1739.40 from above and then resume trading upwards with the target at 1792.92.

S&P 500

The S&P index has reached the short-term upside target at 4100.0. Possibly, today the asset may consolidate around this level. If later the price breaks the range to the downside, the market may start a new correction towards 3921.2; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 4211.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Jul

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 29.07.2022 (GBPUSD, USDCHF, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is growing within the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 1.2140 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2410. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.1875. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1665.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has fixed above the support area. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.9585 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9355. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9775. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9865.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is no longer moving inside the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.6295 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6405. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6150. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6055.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Jul

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.29

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0200
Prev Close: 1.0196
% chg. over the last day: -0.04%

US gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.9% y/y in the second quarter. Consumer spending grew at the slowest pace in two years, and business spending declined, raising the risk that the economy is on the brink of a recession. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth of 0.5%. Today in Europe, there will be many vital macroeconomic statistics, and volatility will be higher.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0170, 1.0142, 1.0112, 1.0035, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is still forming a wide volatile balance, and buyer pressure prevails now. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0170 or 1.0142. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0284, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0112 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.29:

– Eurozone French GDP (q/q) at 08:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Spanish GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2149
Prev Close: 1.2177
% chg. over the last day: +0.23%

Brexit is only one of the major problems facing the next British prime minister. Other problems include high inflation, the cost of living crisis, gov sector wages, and the healthcare crisis. Add to that the interest rate differential between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, and you get a rough picture of how much stronger the US dollar is now than the British currency. However, the British pound has been strengthening for the last two weeks as the US Dollar Index has declined amid a decrease in hawkish sentiment by the US Fed.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2143, 1.2089, 1.2063, 1.1907, 1.1803
Resistance levels: 1.2238, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. Buyer pressure remains. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but shows signs of divergence already in several time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.2143 or 1.2089, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2238, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2006 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 136.48
Prev Close: 134.22
% chg. over the last day: -1.68%

Tokyo’s core Consumer Price Index rose from 2.1% to 2.3% annually. The unemployment rate remained at 2.6%. Retail sales increased by 1.5% in June, while the industrial production index added 8.9% in the last month against an expected 7.5% decline. The Japanese Yen has strengthened today in the background of such production growth.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 131.67, 130.99
Resistance levels: 134.72, 135.10, 136.03, 137.11

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Over the last three trading sessions, the Japanese yen has been getting stronger. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the sellers’ pressure is still there, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 131.67, but with additional confirmation. Resistance levels of 134.72 or 135.10 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 137.11, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.29:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2819
Prev Close: 1.2805
% chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The situation on the USD/CAD currency pair remains the same. When the US Dollar Index is falling and oil prices are rising, it is a green light for the Canadian currency, because the Canadian is a commodity currency and is directly dependent on these indicators. The interest rates of the central banks of the USA and Canada are at the same level now, so the price will keep a certain balance without any significant trends.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2781
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2923, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish. Currently, the price is forming a wide balance and trading on the lower border of the descending channel. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence, which indicates that it is harder for the price to move lower. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2880, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2781 or the channel’s lower border, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3006 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.29:

– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.