InvestMacro

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: USD Majors & Commodities

– A sense of unease gripped financial markets on Wednesday as a rocket blast in Poland overnight left investors on edge.

Renewed fears of further escalation in geopolitical tensions dragged European markets lower with the risk-off sentiment hitting US equity futures. In the currency space, the dollar got no love which offered an opportunity for G10 currencies to fight back. While gold found comfort above $1780 as market players rushed to safe-haven destinations.

Looking at the economic calendar, dollar volatility could be around the corner as investors closely scrutinize speeches from numerous Fed officials and US economic data. Just this afternoon US retail sales surged 1.3% month-over-month in October after the flat reading in September. Although this report beat market expectations, buying sentiment towards the dollar remained muted. As the week progresses, the developments surrounding the missile blast in Poland are likely to influence sentiment, especially if investors remain jittery about the prospects of further escalation.

With dollar bears marking their territory and the fundamentals pointing to further weakness down the road, G10 currencies could strike back hard.

EURUSD hits 200-day SMA

A broadly weaker dollar has inspired EURUSD bulls to rally over the last few days. The currency pair has turned bullish on the daily charts with the MACD trading above zero. The 1.0427 level could be a tough nut to crack but a strong breakout above this point may open a path toward 1.0530. If prices are capped below 1.0427, the next key point of interest can be found at 1.0280.

GBPUSD breaks above 1.1850

Sterling pushed higher on Wednesday after the latest UK inflation figures jumped to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, exceeding market expectations. This development may re-kindle expectations around the Bank of England raising interest rates aggressively to combat soaring prices. A weaker dollar has also played a role in the GBPUSD’s rally as prices approach levels not seen since mid-August. Looking at the technicals, another solid daily close above 1.1850 could trigger an incline toward 1.2050. Alternatively, a move back under 1.1850 may see a sell-off towards 1.1750 and 1.1500, respectively.

AUDUSD to challenge 200-day SMA?

If the dollar continues its slippery decline, this could push the AUDUSD toward 0.6850. A strong breakout and daily close above 0.6850 has the potential to encourage a move higher toward 0.6950. Should bulls run out of steam before hitting 0.6850, bears could target the 0.6700 level.

USDJPY lingers around 139.50

The trend is bearish on the USDJPY as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Sustained weakness below 139.50 could trigger a selloff towards 137.50 and lower. Should prices stage a rebound back above 139.50, prices could challenge 142.00

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold seems to be on standby as investors digest the latest US retail sales data and developments revolving around Poland. However, the precious metal may resume drawing strength from a weaker dollar and subdued Treasury yields as the trading week progresses. Given how the dollar may be influenced by the numerous speeches from Fed members and US economic data, this could find its way back to gold which is trading below $1780 as of writing.

Gold remains bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. A solid move above $1780 could encourage an incline towards the psychological $1800 resistance level – where the 200-day SMA resides. Should this resistance prove to be a tough nut to crack, prices could descend back below $1780 with the next key level of interest found at $1750 and $1715 – just above the 100-day SMA.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

16 Nov

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 16.11.2022 (EURUSD, USDCAD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The pair has secured under the Tenkan-Sen line and is preparing to develop a correction by the Head and Shoulders pattern. The pair is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.0220 is expected, followed by growth to 1.0685. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.9935, which will entail further falling to 0.9845.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The pair is testing the support area, going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.3345 is expected, followed by falling to 1.2985. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.3575, which will entail further growth to 1.3665.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair is correcting inside a bullish channel, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line is expected at 1.1720, followed by growth to 1.2345. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.1355, which will entail further falling to 1.1265. The scenario can be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the bullish channel and securing above 1.2105.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Nov

EURUSD: even higher. Overview for 16.11.2022

By RoboForex.com

The market major on Wednesday preserves its impulse of growth. The current quote is 1.0350.

The main reason for the crash of the USD and the sky-rocketing of the EUR is the all-market strong belief that at the meeting in December the Federal Reserve System will change its policy. Looks like these are the expectations on which the market will keep buying until it gets facts.

At the same time, the number of risks for the euro is growing. For example, spot gas prices in Europe are heading up high. Yesterday they leaped up by 16%. As long as the heating season has started, there may occur too many surprises, and the EUR will inevitably react to them. These are inflation prospects, which are extremely important for the currency.

The second GDP assessment in the Euro zone in Q3 demonstrated growth of the economy by 0.2% m/m as expected. Curiously, the German GDP inside the EU is growing slower than that of France or Spain. Germany used to be the economic locomotive of the alliance but has recently lost the ability to pull the whole of the EU forward.

Today the US will publish two important economic indicators. One is the retail sales report for October. It might have grown by 0.9% m/m, which would be productive after zero change in September. Moreover, industrial production data are also to be published, and in October it should have grown by 0.2% m/m after growing by 0.4% in September. The better the statistics turn out, the better for the USD.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Nov

Pound, bonds to judge if UK Autumn Statement restores market credibility

By George Prior

The movement of the pound and bonds on Thursday will be the first major economic test of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government as UK inflation accelerates to a 41-year high of 11.1%.

The reaction by markets could prove to be instrumental in the PM’s longer-term leadership success, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The comments from Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, come ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt delivering the Autumn statement, – a Budget in all but name.

He says: “Hunt has the difficult job of trying to plug a gaping hole in the UK’s finances – reportedly £50 billion – and to tame inflation which is now running at a 41-year high, without pushing the economy battling into the abyss of a painful recession.

“With Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s backing, he will use the Autumn Statement to set out an agenda to raise taxes and squeeze public spending.”

The deVere CEO continues: “However, arguably one of the most critical things Hunt has to try and achieve is to get the markets on-side and restore credibility and stability.

“Financial markets are unforgiving — as we saw after Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget when the pound hit historic lows against the dollar, gilt yields jumped, and stock markets fell due to reckless economic policies.

“The reaction of the pound and the bond market on Thursday will be seen as a critical test on whether Hunt and Sunak have got the agenda right.

“Liz Truss was forced to quit largely because she got on the wrong side of bond markets, which sets the rate at the government can borrow money to fund all the things it needs to do.

“If the pound rallies and the cost of government borrowing falls it will be a win for Sunak’s government.”

But with the intensifying cost of living crisis and screaming headlines about 11.1% inflation, what might please financial markets, might not be good for political careers and voters.

“Hunt and Sunak are walking a fine line,” says Nigel Green. “There’s a long history of financial markets flexing their muscle in politics and Thursday is another key test for the government and how the Conservatives will be viewed at the next election, likely in two years from now.”

He concludes: “The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement will instantly be judged by the value of the pound and gilt yields.

“It could also determine the fate of this government in two years’ time by voters.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Nov

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.11.15

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0334
Prev Close: 1.0325
% chg. over the last day: -0.09 %

The euro is expected to gain upward momentum this week when the European Central Bank announces early repayment of so-called TLTRO loans by Eurozone banks, leading to tighter financial conditions in regional markets by depleting excess liquidity. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who oversees financial stability analysis at the ECB, echoed officials’ current mantra yesterday about inflation risks and the need to keep raising interest rates. His remarks focused on how market and liquidity threats have changed, noting that the price correction following the Russian invasion of Ukraine has already begun. Meanwhile, banks may face higher credit risk due to vulnerabilities in real estate markets.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0194, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9993, 0.9838, 0.9794, 0.9755
Resistance levels: 1.0363, 1.0411, 1.0504

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but the buying pressure is weakening. For buy deals, it is best to wait for a corrective movement to the support levels of 1.0194 or 1.0092, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0363, but also better confirmation in the form of a false breakdown.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9993 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.11.15:

– Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1800
Prev Close: 11.1756
% chg. over the last day: -0.37 %

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned yesterday that tax hikes would affect everyone and that government spending cuts are inevitable. The UK economic indicators continue to decline. The UK labor market remains strong, but the coming months may start to see shifts as the economy continues to slow while overall inflation is expected to rise again. This will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the British pound sterling in the medium term. Analysts forecast that the Bank of England will continue to raise rates and reduce its balance sheet in the coming meetings.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418, 1.1231, 1.1172, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.1848, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the divergence indicates weakness and a possible correction. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals after a slight correction to the support levels of 1.1684 or 1.1476. Sell deals are best to look for from the resistance level of 1.1848, but better with a confirmation in the form of a false breakdown.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1418 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.11.15:

– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 139.11
Prev Close: 139.91
% chg. over the last day: +0.58 %

Japan’s GDP unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter due to soaring inflation and slowing global economic growth. This marked the first quarterly contraction in over a year. Official data showed that the gross domestic product fell by 1.2% year-over-year. The government is stepping up support for households to try to cushion the effects of cost inflation, with an additional 29 trillion yen ($196 billion) in spending in the budget. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda said that the expected inflation rise and a slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter underscore the need for further economic support. This is a negative signal for the yen.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 139.58, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80
Resistance levels: 140.55, 143.17, 145.16, 146.06, 147.34, 148.82, 150.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, indicating the uncertainty of market participants. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday time frames from the support level of 139.58, but only with confirmation in the form of a bullish initiative. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 141.05, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 146.06, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.11.15:

– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3274
Prev Close: 1.3316
% chg. over the last day: +0.32 %

Canada will release fresh inflation data this week. Analysts forecast that the annual inflation rate in Canada will remain the same, which will confirm the fact that the peak of inflation in the country has passed, and the Bank of Canada can be less aggressive with raising rates. The situation here is similar to the US Federal Reserve’s policy, so with the rates being equal, the imbalance in the USD/CAD quotes will be caused by oil prices.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3369, 1.3508, 1.3608, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price is trading between the moving averages. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3369, but there is a lot of space before this level, so buy trades are very appropriate and should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3212, but with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3607, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Nov

Bank forecasts point to a decline in stock indices in the coming weeks

By JustMarkets

Major US indices fell on Monday as hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials tempered investors’ hopes that the central bank would ease its aggressive monetary policy. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.63%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.12% on Monday.

The US Fed spokeswoman Brainard echoed recent statements from other bank officials that it may be appropriate to move to a slower rate of increase. The market expects the Fed to continue its hawkish rhetoric on rates through March 2023. Traders now expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 0.5% in December and expect the final rate to be in the 4.75%-5.0% range. Then according to bank analysts, rates will be at this level until the end of 2023, after which rates will begin to decline in early 2024. Bank analysts believe that it is during the “pause” period that the stock market will show strong growth.

The midterm elections in the US indicate that the Democrats retain control of the Senate. They now have 50 seats against 49 for Republicans. Democratic leaders in Congress on Sunday promised to tackle the national debt ceiling in the coming weeks, saying their party’s election victory gives them leverage. The US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said they would act as long as Democrats control both houses.

Along with raising rates, the Fed continues to reduce the number of bonds on its balance sheet to $95 billion monthly. Since that process (quantitative tightening) began in June, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk by more than $235 billion but remains at $8.73 trillion.

Morgan Stanley’s experts forecast the SPY price to fall to 3000-3300 in the coming weeks, and they see the end of the year around 3900, which is where the price is now.

Goldman Sachs predicts a significant decline in inflation in the US next year. Analysts at the bank expect the core PCE to fall to 2.9% by December 2023 from the current 5.1%.

Equity markets in Europe traded higher yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 0.62%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.52%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up to 0.92% on Monday.

ECB member De Guindos made a speech yesterday and left some important comments:

Monetary policy should focus on reducing demand support;
Inflation expectations are unchanged at the moment;
The ECB will continue to raise interest rates;
Fiscal support measures should be targeted and temporary.

The Eurozone saw surprisingly strong production in the third quarter as easing supply problems contributed to growth. Industrial production rose by 0.9% in September, leading to a quarterly increase of 0.5% in Q3. This was a surprise as businesses reported lower new orders due to lower demand. Thus, analysts still expect a dip in the winter months, as the catch-up effect of production growth is unlikely to last.

The European Commission permitted Berlin to nationalize the former unit of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, supporting the efforts of Europe’s largest economy to restore order to the energy market.

According to experts, Britain will have dark days at least until mid-2024 as British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warns that tax hikes will affect everyone and cuts in public spending are inevitable.

Due to China’s worries about COVID and OPEC’s reduced demand forecast, oil prices are down. While investors welcomed China’s announcement last week that it would reduce the impact of a strict zero COVID policy to stimulate economic activity and energy demand, analysts said blockages and rising incidence of the disease remain a key downside risk.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 1.70%, and Australia’s S&P/AS 200 (AU200) ended the day down by 0.16%.

The Chinese authorities are doing their best to put an end to the crisis in the country’s huge real estate sector, which has hit the economy hard in the past year. Key measures include allowing banks to make payday loans to developers, supporting real estate sales by reducing down payments, lowering mortgage rates, and encouraging other financing channels such as bond issues and ensuring pre-sold homes are delivered to buyers. In essence, policymakers have told banks to do whatever they can to support the real estate sector. Shares of Chinese developers rose substantially on Monday, boosting the market as a whole.

Japan’s GDP unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter due to soaring inflation and slowing global economic growth. This was the first quarterly decline in over a year. Official data showed that the gross domestic product fell by 1.2% year-over-year.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,957.25 −35.68 (−0.89%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,536.70 −211.16 (−0.63%)

DAX (DE40) 14,313.30 +88.44 (+0.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,385.17 +67.13 (+0.92%)

USD Index 106.86 +0.57 (+1.53%)

Important events for today:

– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– G20 Meetings (Day 1).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

14 Nov

Currency Speculators raised Mexican Peso bullish bets for 6th week to 139-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The COT release was delayed due to a Federal Holiday last week.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican peso & Pound Sterling

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher last week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (15,569 contracts) with the British pound sterling (5,101 contracts), the Australian dollar (3,849 contracts), the Japanese yen (2,362 contracts), the Euro (1,809 contracts), Bitcoin (470 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (405 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets last week were the Brazilian real (-24,656 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (-2,520 contracts), the Swiss franc (-2,370 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (-815 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data last week was the strong gains for the Mexican peso. The large speculators raised their bullish bets for the peso by over +15,000 contracts and for the sixth consecutive week last week. These gains add up to a total rise of +100,936 net contracts over the latest six-week period and brought the overall peso positioning all the way from -41,322 contracts on September 27th to a total of +59,614 contracts on November 8th. This latest speculator level (+59,614 contracts) is the highest speculator standing since March 10th of 2020, a span of 139-weeks.

The peso’s sentiment has been boosted by the Bank of Mexico’s consistent interest rate hiking campaign to tame inflation. The Bank raised the interest rate by 75 basis points last week to a new level of 10 percent. These higher rates have helped the peso rise this year versus the US dollar as most other major currencies have been on the defensive versus the USD. The peso has climbed by over 6 percent (vs USD) while the Euro, GBP, AUD, CAD, JPY and the NZD have all declined sharply against the American currency over the year.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	56,340	81	30,193	75	-33,851	22	3,658	57
EUR	667,902	63	107,599	68	-131,763	39	24,164	18
GBP	237,334	60	-39,735	35	56,255	72	-16,520	26
JPY	251,378	81	-75,258	23	88,980	79	-13,722	26
CHF	49,907	41	-17,154	13	28,276	89	-11,122	20
CAD	147,555	29	-18,464	20	17,930	84	534	31
AUD	162,523	54	-46,683	42	55,223	60	-8,540	32
NZD	45,808	39	-6,367	56	8,792	49	-2,425	24
MXN	300,020	96	59,614	53	-66,356	45	6,742	72
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	28,046	11	4,501	55	-7,773	44	3,272	100
Bitcoin	14,439	84	18	77	-449	0	431	23

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index last week

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (77.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (75.3 percent) led the currency markets last week. The EuroFX (68.0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (55.6 percent) and the Brazilian Real (54.8 percent) came in as the next highest in the currency markets for strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (13.0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19.8 percent) were the lowest strength levels and were both in bearish extreme positions below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (75.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (74.6 percent)
EuroFX (68.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (67.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (34.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (30.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (21.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (19.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (19.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (41.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (38.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (55.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (60.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (52.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (54.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.0 percent)
Bitcoin (77.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (69.1 percent)

Mexican Peso topped the Strength Trends last week

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (43.0 percent) led the past six weeks trends for the currency markets. The EuroFX (22.7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (9.6 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) were the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-29.0 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-28.8 percent) led the downside trend scores followed by Bitcoin (-17.5 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-11.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.1 percent)
EuroFX (22.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (8.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-29.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-20.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-1.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-23.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-11.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (43.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-28.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-17.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.1	9.7	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	69.7	4.7
– Net Position:	30,193	-33,851	3,658
– Gross Longs:	42,887	5,442	6,327
– Gross Shorts:	12,694	39,293	2,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	22.0	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	-2.2	19.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 107,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	50.8	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	70.5	8.1
– Net Position:	107,599	-131,763	24,164
– Gross Longs:	232,317	339,218	78,139
– Gross Shorts:	124,718	470,981	53,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	38.6	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-20.8	-0.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -39,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	74.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	50.7	14.8
– Net Position:	-39,735	56,255	-16,520
– Gross Longs:	36,630	176,560	18,714
– Gross Shorts:	76,365	120,305	35,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.9	72.3	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.1	4.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	73.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	37.6	16.0
– Net Position:	-75,258	88,980	-13,722
– Gross Longs:	37,201	183,539	26,462
– Gross Shorts:	112,459	94,559	40,184
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	79.1	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-5.7	8.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	71.3	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	14.7	40.6
– Net Position:	-17,154	28,276	-11,122
– Gross Longs:	4,865	35,603	9,156
– Gross Shorts:	22,019	7,327	20,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	88.6	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.0	18.1	0.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -18,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,649 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	51.3	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	39.2	20.2
– Net Position:	-18,464	17,930	534
– Gross Longs:	39,586	75,750	30,370
– Gross Shorts:	58,050	57,820	29,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	83.7	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	-3.1	9.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,532 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	66.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	32.8	15.5
– Net Position:	-46,683	55,223	-8,540
– Gross Longs:	33,288	108,584	16,602
– Gross Shorts:	79,971	53,361	25,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	60.1	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	5.4	11.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	54.4	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	35.2	10.8
– Net Position:	-6,367	8,792	-2,425
– Gross Longs:	18,085	24,923	2,532
– Gross Shorts:	24,452	16,131	4,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	49.0	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-10.8	13.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,569 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.0	32.4	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	54.5	0.8
– Net Position:	59,614	-66,356	6,742
– Gross Longs:	192,024	97,255	9,069
– Gross Shorts:	132,410	163,611	2,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	45.1	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.0	-43.5	14.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.3	18.6	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	46.3	4.4
– Net Position:	4,501	-7,773	3,272
– Gross Longs:	18,306	5,219	4,502
– Gross Shorts:	13,805	12,992	1,230
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	43.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	26.6	22.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.3	1.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	4.5	5.8
– Net Position:	18	-449	431
– Gross Longs:	11,303	200	1,269
– Gross Shorts:	11,285	649	838
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	42.7	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	37.5	5.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

14 Nov

COT Bonds Speculators raised their Fed Funds & 5-Year Bond bets last week

By InvestMacro

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher last week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (39,189 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (37,532 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (15,257 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (6,903 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (5,993 contracts) and the Long US Bond (4,580 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the Eurodollar (-161,954 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-45,488 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,973,351	1	-2,112,650	14	2,359,932	83	-247,282	50
FedFunds	1,490,683	42	22,184	42	-14,210	58	-7,974	39
2-Year	2,205,573	19	-483,273	0	505,582	100	-22,309	42
Long T-Bond	1,207,905	44	-90,725	55	58,256	31	32,469	78
10-Year	4,030,770	67	-283,059	29	349,824	63	-66,765	64
5-Year	4,281,320	67	-499,455	10	612,346	88	-112,891	50

US Treasury Bond led the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (55.1 percent) led the bonds category.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.9 percent), 5-Year Bond (10.0 percent) and the Eurodollar (14.2 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and were all in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (37.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (29.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (55.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (53.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (29.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.9 percent)
Eurodollar (14.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (17.2 percent)

Strength Trends led by 10-Year Bond last week

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bond (12.5 percent) led the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bond (1.9 percent) and the Eurodollar (0.9 percent) were the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) led the downside trend scores while the next market with lower trend scores was the Fed Funds (-9.9 percent) followed by the 5-Year Bond (-8.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-5.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-16.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (12.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-10.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (1.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.1 percent)
Eurodollar (0.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (5.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,112,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -161,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,950,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	68.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	39.0	9.2
– Net Position:	-2,112,650	2,359,932	-247,282
– Gross Longs:	487,273	5,471,608	485,753
– Gross Shorts:	2,599,923	3,111,676	733,035
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	83.2	50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.0	1.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 39,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	73.0	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	73.9	2.8
– Net Position:	22,184	-14,210	-7,974
– Gross Longs:	169,743	1,087,836	33,025
– Gross Shorts:	147,559	1,102,046	40,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	58.2	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	8.8	20.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -483,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -45,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -437,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	81.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	58.2	9.3
– Net Position:	-483,273	505,582	-22,309
– Gross Longs:	184,479	1,790,012	181,777
– Gross Shorts:	667,752	1,284,430	204,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	13.9	37.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -499,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 37,532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -536,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	69.5	10.3
– Net Position:	-499,455	612,346	-112,891
– Gross Longs:	305,068	3,588,425	327,034
– Gross Shorts:	804,523	2,976,079	439,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	87.9	50.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	5.5	3.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -283,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	75.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	67.0	10.7
– Net Position:	-283,059	349,824	-66,765
– Gross Longs:	499,430	3,049,134	366,261
– Gross Shorts:	782,489	2,699,310	433,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	63.4	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-7.1	-5.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -76,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	79.7	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	68.7	16.4
– Net Position:	-76,528	152,582	-76,054
– Gross Longs:	117,692	1,103,138	151,341
– Gross Shorts:	194,220	950,556	227,395
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.9	79.4	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	-2.2	16.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -90,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	78.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	73.7	12.1
– Net Position:	-90,725	58,256	32,469
– Gross Longs:	68,339	948,677	178,648
– Gross Shorts:	159,064	890,421	146,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.1	31.4	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-3.6	3.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -382,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,993 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -388,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	81.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	59.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-382,173	328,090	54,083
– Gross Longs:	88,204	1,200,247	175,022
– Gross Shorts:	470,377	872,157	120,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	73.7	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-4.1	6.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

14 Nov

COT Metals Speculators raised their Gold, Silver & Copper bets last week

By InvestMacro

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold, Silver & Copper led the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher last week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while only one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (17,715 contracts) with Silver (11,479 contracts), Copper (10,397 contracts) and Platinum (3,462 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The only metals markets with declines in speculator bets this week was Palladium with a total of -543 contracts lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,446,658	1	274,790	17	-301,325	83	26,535	43
Gold	488,471	16	82,338	10	-91,144	91	8,806	2
Silver	140,437	13	13,003	28	-22,088	74	9,085	14
Copper	169,929	10	2,913	39	-3,426	64	513	28
Palladium	9,467	17	-2,410	10	2,573	89	-163	32
Platinum	60,301	22	19,449	35	-23,295	67	3,846	20
Natural Gas	982,596	7	-152,308	33	120,222	69	32,086	56
Brent	135,078	1	-22,201	74	18,085	23	4,116	65
Heating Oil	266,730	23	27,958	84	-51,059	17	23,101	78
Soybeans	611,011	8	87,809	40	-60,966	68	-26,843	26
Corn	1,484,427	31	301,554	69	-254,182	36	-47,372	16
Coffee	217,646	25	-4,683	4	1,912	100	2,771	38
Sugar	766,340	14	90,182	44	-122,561	56	32,379	48
Wheat	350,843	27	-17,214	0	23,686	93	-6,472	77

Copper & Platinum lead the Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (38.6 percent) and Platinum (35.2 percent) led the metals category last week. Silver (28.4 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (9.7 percent) and Gold (10.0 percent) were at the lowest strength levels currently and in extreme bearish levels.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (10.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.2 percent)
Silver (28.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.8 percent)
Copper (38.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (30.4 percent)
Platinum (35.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (30.6 percent)
Palladium (9.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.8 percent)

Strength Trends topped by Platinum & Copper

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (25.9 percent) and Copper (24.4 percent) led the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Silver (13.5 percent) and Gold (10.0 percent) filled out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-9.3 percent) was the only market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-0.4 percent)
Silver (13.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.5 percent)
Copper (24.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (10.2 percent)
Platinum (25.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (18.3 percent)
Palladium (-9.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 82,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,715 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	25.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	44.5	6.0
– Net Position:	82,338	-91,144	8,806
– Gross Longs:	223,135	126,187	38,045
– Gross Shorts:	140,797	217,331	29,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	91.0	1.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-9.0	-3.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	33.8	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	49.5	9.9
– Net Position:	13,003	-22,088	9,085
– Gross Longs:	53,651	47,451	23,040
– Gross Shorts:	40,648	69,539	13,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	74.4	14.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-14.4	14.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	37.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	39.3	9.4
– Net Position:	2,913	-3,426	513
– Gross Longs:	55,028	63,309	16,492
– Gross Shorts:	52,115	66,735	15,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	64.4	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.4	-25.0	9.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	30.2	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	68.8	6.0
– Net Position:	19,449	-23,295	3,846
– Gross Longs:	31,065	18,181	7,456
– Gross Shorts:	11,616	41,476	3,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.2	66.6	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-26.2	19.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	53.7	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	26.5	14.7
– Net Position:	-2,410	2,573	-163
– Gross Longs:	1,667	5,085	1,226
– Gross Shorts:	4,077	2,512	1,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	88.8	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	7.7	14.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

14 Nov

WTI Crude Oil & Heating Oil led last week’s speculator changes

By InvestMacro

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil & Heating Oil lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher last week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (19,981 contracts) with Heating Oil (6,578 contracts), Gasoline (5,069 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,608 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Natural Gas (-3,655 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-293 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,446,658	1	274,790	17	-301,325	83	26,535	43
Gold	488,471	16	82,338	10	-91,144	91	8,806	2
Silver	140,437	13	13,003	28	-22,088	74	9,085	14
Copper	169,929	10	2,913	39	-3,426	64	513	28
Palladium	9,467	17	-2,410	10	2,573	89	-163	32
Platinum	60,301	22	19,449	35	-23,295	67	3,846	20
Natural Gas	982,596	7	-152,308	33	120,222	69	32,086	56
Brent	135,078	1	-22,201	74	18,085	23	4,116	65
Heating Oil	266,730	23	27,958	84	-51,059	17	23,101	78
Soybeans	611,011	8	87,809	40	-60,966	68	-26,843	26
Corn	1,484,427	31	301,554	69	-254,182	36	-47,372	16
Coffee	217,646	25	-4,683	4	1,912	100	2,771	38
Sugar	766,340	14	90,182	44	-122,561	56	32,379	48
Wheat	350,843	27	-17,214	0	23,686	93	-6,472	77

Bloomberg Commodity Index & Heating Oil lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (94.3 percent) and Heating Oil (83.6 percent) lead the energy category and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Brent Crude Oil (74.0 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (16.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Gasoline (20.8 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (16.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (74.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Natural Gas (32.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (33.9 percent)
Gasoline (20.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (15.7 percent)
Heating Oil (83.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (73.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (94.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Brent Crude Oil & Heating Oil top the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Brent Crude Oil (32.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Heating Oil (24.3 percent), the Bloomberg Commodity Index (16.0 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (12.9 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Natural Gas (-0.1 percent) came in as the only market with lower trend scores for last week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (32.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (26.9 percent)
Natural Gas (-0.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (2.1 percent)
Gasoline (4.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-3.4 percent)
Heating Oil (24.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (10.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (16.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (16.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 274,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	38.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	59.0	3.5
– Net Position:	274,790	-301,325	26,535
– Gross Longs:	368,585	551,749	77,784
– Gross Shorts:	93,795	853,074	51,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	82.9	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.7	9.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	44.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	30.9	3.7
– Net Position:	-22,201	18,085	4,116
– Gross Longs:	31,215	59,785	9,133
– Gross Shorts:	53,416	41,700	5,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	23.4	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.0	-37.2	45.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -152,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	45.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	33.4	3.6
– Net Position:	-152,308	120,222	32,086
– Gross Longs:	133,199	448,264	67,376
– Gross Shorts:	285,507	328,042	35,290
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.9	68.8	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-0.3	2.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 48,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	45.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	68.9	4.8
– Net Position:	48,753	-59,226	10,473
– Gross Longs:	83,270	111,348	22,245
– Gross Shorts:	34,517	170,574	11,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	74.5	82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-11.8	50.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 27,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	41.5	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	60.7	9.1
– Net Position:	27,958	-51,059	23,101
– Gross Longs:	46,818	110,820	47,495
– Gross Shorts:	18,860	161,879	24,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	16.9	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-31.4	44.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	75.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	65.2	4.7
– Net Position:	-3,439	5,797	-2,358
– Gross Longs:	12,268	43,434	373
– Gross Shorts:	15,707	37,637	2,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.3	15.6	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-6.3	-54.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

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