InvestMacro

Euro Remains Depressed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, the final trading day in October, the market major is declining, balancing near 0.9940.

Active growth of the instrument stopped right after the European Central Bank last week lifted the interest rate to 2.00% annual. This was just the decision know long before, so on facts investors just took the profit.

The main event of this week will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The is hardly any doubt that the interest rate will grow by 75 base points to 4.00% annual. Much depends on the comments of the Fed: investors need to understand whether the rate will keep growing at such speed.

EUR/USD volatility will grow on Wednesday.

On H4, the market performed a wave of growth to 1.0090. Today the market continues developing a correction. The level of 0.770 is likely to be reached. Then a wave of growth may start for 0.9920. Practically, a consolidation range is likely to form between these two levels. With an escape upwards, another structure of growth is likely to develop to 1.0440. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is under zero and keeps going down to new lows.

On H1, EUR/USD has completed a structure of a wave of decline to 0.9930. At the moment, the market has formed a consolidation area above it. We expect an escape downwards and a decline to 0.9766. After this level is reached, a link of growth might develop to 0.9930, from where the trend may continue to 1.0440. Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is headed downwards, to 50. Upon breaking this away, the trend should continue to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Oct

Trade Of The Week: Will BoE Join 75-bp Hike Club?

By ForexTime

The war against inflation remains fierce and relentless.

Central banks across the world are on the offensive, unleashing aggressive rate hikes despite the growing risks of collateral damage to their respective economies.

Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced a smaller-than-expected hike of 50bp as recession fears intensified. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates by 75 basis points for the second consecutive time thanks to soaring inflation in the Euro Area.

Over the next few days, the Federal Reserve is poised to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth consecutive time while the Bank of England could finally join the jumbo hike club!

Before we take a deep dive into what to expect from the BoE on Thursday, it’s safe to say that the past few weeks have been wild for not only the UK economy but Pound. A toxic combination of political drama and central bank intervention sent the GBPUSD on a chaotic roller-coaster ride.

After making a swift recovery in recent days, the GBPUSD is trading back above 1.15 for the first time in 6 weeks. This move has been the product of dollar weakness and improving sentiment toward the UK economy after Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. The currency pair will most likely be influenced by the Fed rate decision on Wednesday and the BoE meeting on Thursday.

The low down…

The Bank of England remains in a tricky position as it potentially delivers what would be the biggest UK rate hike in 33 years.

Sentiment towards the UK economy is fragile due to fears that the country is probably already in a recession while the recent political drama over ex-Prime Minister Liz Truss’s controversial mini-budget has left a bitter aftertaste. With inflation through the roof at 10.1%, expectations remain elevated over the Bank of England joining the heavy hitters by unleashing a 75bp monetary policy bazooka. However, recent economic data including retail sales, monthly GDP, and manufacturing data among many others have shown signs of a slowing economy.

At the peak of the political crisis when the pound tumbled to an all-time low, markets were pricing in a gargantuan 200 basis point hike in November. But with some normality returning to UK markets and sterling staging a strong recovery, BoE rate hike expectations have cooled.

Although according to Bloomberg, traders have fully priced in a 75bp rate hike at the BoE’s November meeting – expectations can differ from reality.

Other things to watch out for…

Mid-week, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Given how such a move has already been priced, much attention will be on the press conference for clues on future monetary policy. Should the central bank strike a cautious tone with doves entering the scene, this could weaken the dollar as aggressive rate hike bets cool. A weaker dollar may push the GBPUSD higher ahead of the BoE meeting on Thursday 3rd November.

Possible outcomes of BoE meeting

BoE hikes rates by 75-basis points. This decision could inject some life into pound bulls but gains may be limited if the central bank signals that this is a “one-off” move. Expect the pound to weaken eventually as expectations rise over the BoE adopting a less aggressive approach towards rates beyond November and 2023.
BoE hikes rate by 50-basis points. This decision could be based on the gloomy macroeconomic decisions and fears of the UK already entering a recession. Such a move could trigger a pound selloff as the BoE rejects the 75bp club membership.

Unlikely outcomes of BoE meeting

BoE hikes rates by 100 basis points. Given how UK inflation remains at a 40-year high, the central bank decides to go full-auto to contain rising prices. Pound is likely to rally aggressively following such a move but the upside may be capped by recession fears.

GBPUSD to breakout or breakdown?

The next few days could be volatile for the GBPUSD thanks to the Fed & BoE policy meetings.

Fundamentally, the GBPUSD remains bearish but the technicals could be singing a different tune. Prices are trading above 1.1500 due to the recent weakness in the USD as traders bet over the Fed slowing the pace of rate hikes. Should 1.1500 prove to be reliable support a move back towards 1.1750 and 1.1850 could be on the cards. If bears succeed in dragging the GBPUSD back under 1.1500, the first point of interest can be found at 1.1400 where the 50-day SMA resides. Below this point, prices could sink towards 1.1200 and 1.0925.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

31 Oct

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, DOGE). Overview for 31.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The leading cryptocurrency is creeping down again. On Monday, main fluctuations are near 20,487 USD. To preserve the uptrend in force, the BTC needs to brace itself and secure above 21,500 USD. Until this happens, all movements will be inside a flat.

The most important event of this week and month is coming, and this is the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. With a probability of 81.4%, the market expects the regulator to lift the interest rate by 75 base points. 18.7% of investors count on an increase by 50 base points.

However, the main movements will be provoked not by the Fed’s decision but by its comments. Everyone is too interested in what is next to come? There is one more meeting left till the end of the year, and previously, the regulator planned to lift the rate at each meeting.

Seasonal cycles suggest that the BTC might keep growing this week, at least.

Money Fellows attracted 31 million USD

An Egyptian startup Money Fellows that works in the crypto market managed to gather 31 million USD at another round of financing. The company will allocate the money for designing new products and services, as well as for hiring new employees.

DOGE: best result of week

The copper coin DOGE demonstrated the best result of the week. Over 7 days, its price almost doubled. This let the coin rise to the 8th line of the rating of most popular cryptocurrencies. DOGE capitalisation grew to 15.54 billion USD.

BTC: 14 years since “White Paper” publication

On 31 October, it is 14 years since the BTC published its “White Paper” – a tech document that described the work principle of the peer-to-peer payment system. It is still unknown who is hiding behind the Satoshi Nakamoto penname.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

31 Oct

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 31.10.2022 (GBPUSD, XAUUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair is pushing off the signal lines of the indicator, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.1420 is expected, followed by growth to 1.1935. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.1225, which will mean further falling to 1.1130.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is declining inside a bearish channel. The instrument is going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1645 is expected, followed by falling to 1590. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1670, which will mean further growth to 1725.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is testing the Kijun-Sen line. The instrument is going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.3690 is expected, followed by falling to 1.3330. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.3845, which will mean further growth to 1.3955. The decline will be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the bullish channel and securing under 1.3535.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.10.31

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9963
Prev Close: 0.9964
% chg. over the last day: +0.01 %

Eurozone’s inflation data will be released today. General inflation is expected to hit a new high again, while core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) will remain about the same. Third-quarter GDP data will also be released and is expected to show modest growth. Still, most economists believe the bloc economy will enter the contractionary territory in the fourth quarter.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9897, 0.9873, 0.9835, 0.9755, 0.9601
Resistance levels: 1.0055, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price has dropped below the average lines, but the correction is close to the end. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but sellers’ pressure is weak due to divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered from the support level of 0.9897 or 0.9873, but with additional confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sell deals may be considered from the resistance level of 1.0055, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9834 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.31:

– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1557
Prev Close: 1.1609
% chg. over the last day: +0.45 %

Most economists believe that the turmoil in the British market is largely solely due to British policy, not to a tightening of Fed policy and a strengthening of the dollar. However, the new UK government is creating positive sentiment for investors, temporarily returning confidence in the British currency. This positive sentiment will likely last at least until November 17, when the new budget and exit plan will be released.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1467, 1.1337, 1.1172, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.1698, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and buyers’ pressure remains. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1467 or 1.1337, but better after confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1698, but it is also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1172 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 146.26
Prev Close: 147.46
% chg. over the last day: +0.82 %

The Japanese yen declined against the dollar on Friday after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy and supported ultra-low interest rates again, while the dollar strengthened after US data showed that the core PCE Index remained at its peak. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that Japan will not raise the rates and that the country’s inflation rate will probably not reach the 2% target for many years. Kuroda also rejected the notion that the Bank of Japan’s yield ceiling was to blame for the yen’s recent sharp decline, reinforcing the view that the Central Bank will not use rate hikes to support the currency anytime soon. With the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates once again this week, pressure on the Japanese currency will resume.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 146.64, 145.50, 144.91, 144.19, 143.00
Resistance levels: : 148.64, 147.75, 148.64, 148.64, 150.00, 151.05

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become positive, and buyers’ pressure is coming back. Under such market conditions, buy trades may be sought on intraday time frames from the support of 146.64 or 145.50. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 148.64, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 150.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.31:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3561
Prev Close: 1.3604
% chg. over the last day: +0.32 %

Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.1% in September after a slight (+0.1%) increase in August. Growth in service-producing industries (+0.3%) was partially offset by a decline in goods-producing industries (-0.3%). Thus, although the Canadian economy is not showing rapid growth, it is not pointing to contraction either. Lower inflation will allow the Bank of Canada to be more flexible in its monetary policy planning. The Bank of Canada has already slowed the pace of interest rate increases to ease pressure on economic indicators.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3542, 1.35000, 1.3454
Resistance levels: 1.3597, 1.3679, 1.3795, 1.3855, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages, wide-volatility balance is formed. The MACD indicator has become positive, there is a slight buying pressure. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3679, but only after additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3542, but it is better after confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3855, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Oct

Central Banks need to slow the pace of interest rate hikes for financial stability

By JustMarkets

Economic data Friday showed that US labor costs rose significantly in the third quarter. Still, private sector wage growth slowed, indicating that inflation has either peaked or is close to it. This coincides with recent statements from Fed officials that the US Central Bank may be less aggressive in future Fed meetings. Hedge fund analysts agree and point out that the US Fed will be forced to slow the pace to avoid financial instability. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.49% (+5.37% for the week), and the S&P500 (US500) added 2.46% (+3.70% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) increased by 2.87% on Friday (+2.17% for the week).

Nearly half of economists believe the international impact of a strong dollar is very likely to affect the US economy over the next 18 months and affect monetary policy. Only 28% of economists believe that a stronger currency is unlikely to have any impact on the economy. The dollar has risen about 13% this year against other major currencies amid geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which have reached a 40-year high. A stronger dollar tends to curb inflation by lowering the cost of imports and domestic production, as it raises export prices. Fed officials are expected to continue their campaign and raise rates another 75 basis points on Wednesday, but the rate of increase will slow down further. The latest forecast is for rates to reach 4.4% by the end of the year and 4.6% in 2023.

The third-quarter earnings season is halfway through, and the week ahead will test whether stocks can continue to withstand the disappointing earnings.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Friday but closed the week in positive territory. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.24% (+2.94% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.46% (+3.24% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.06% (+3.91% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) lost 0.37% (+1.12% for the week).

Friday’s inflation data showed new record highs for Germany, France, and Italy. Eurozone’s inflation data will be released today. Headline inflation is expected to return to a new high of 10.3% on an annualized basis, while core inflation (which excludes energy and food prices) will remain about the same.

Klaas Knot of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council spoke in favor of an interest rate hike of 50 or 75 basis points in December, but he added that a decision has not yet been made. The Dutch central banker, one of the region’s most hawkish officials, said the ECB is still in the process of returning the cost of borrowing to a neutral level, at which it neither stimulates nor constrains the economy. With Europe threatened by a recession, ECB officials declined to mention that rate hikes will continue over the next few meetings.

Gold prices fell last week despite a weaker US dollar and lower US Treasury yields as a rally in risky assets prompted traders to avoid defensive positions. But in terms of fundamentals, buying gold in the medium term looks like a promising scenario.

Asian markets mostly declined last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.47% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 6.49% last week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down 0.87% for the week.

China’s Central Bank governor promised to keep monetary policy “normal” in the near future amid an economic slowdown caused by repeated Covid outbreaks, a sharp slowdown in the real estate sector, and weakening external demand. China has the conditions to maintain a normal monetary policy and keep the yuan stable for an extended period of time. Experts believe that China will improve the stability of credit growth and continue reducing the cost of credit for businesses and individuals to maintain macroeconomic stability.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+16.96%), WTI oil (+3.92%), Brent oil (+3.01%), and platinum (+1.67%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Futures on lumber (-15.03%), coffee (-9.66%), cotton (-8.87%), palladium (-5.21%), gasoline (-4.28%), sugar (-4.08%) and wheat (-2.41%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,901.06 +93.76 (+2.46%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,861.80 +828.52 (+2.59%)

DAX (DE40) 13,243.33 +32.10 (+0.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,047.67 −26.02 (−0.37%)

USD Index 110.67 +0.08 (+0.07%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Oct

COT Forex Speculators boost Euro bullish bets to 68-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (34,868 contracts) with the Euro (26,759 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (5,561 contracts), the British pound sterling (3,406 contracts), the Brazilian real (2,681 contracts), the Canadian dollar (2,418 contracts) and Bitcoin (1 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Australian dollar (-16,087 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-8,282 contracts), the Swiss franc (-4,214 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,592 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency positioning this week is the further push higher for the Euro speculators. The large speculator position in Euro futures jumped again this week and is higher for the seventh time in the past eight weeks. This week’s rise by over +26,000 contracts follows a gain by over +10,000 contracts last week. The past eight-week gains for Euro speculator bets now stands at +122,585 contracts and the current bullish position (+74,909 contracts currently) is at the most bullish level in 68-weeks, dating back to July 6th of 2021.

The strong bullishness in the Euro is despite the Euro price remaining at parity against the US Dollar (near 20-year lows). The European Central Bank raised their interest rate by 75 basis points on Thursday to try and offset high inflation in the Eurozone and brought the interest rate differential with the US Dollar a little narrower. Going forward, this divergence in the speculator positioning and the weak Euro price brings up some interesting questions. Does the sharply improving speculator sentiment foreshadow an improvement in the Euro price or will it set up a short squeeze with prices going lower if the speculators throw in the towel and bail out of their bullish bets?

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	59,053	87	30,098	75	-34,360	21	4,262	63
EUR	666,719	62	74,909	58	-93,832	49	18,923	9
GBP	258,969	73	-47,805	28	66,560	79	-18,755	21
JPY	272,597	94	-102,618	6	118,082	93	-15,464	22
CHF	46,594	34	-11,300	28	23,161	80	-11,861	17
CAD	143,417	26	-18,155	19	18,053	84	102	30
AUD	166,961	58	-51,446	37	66,319	68	-14,873	16
NZD	50,620	45	-12,884	46	16,289	59	-3,405	12
MXN	248,910	72	12,574	33	-19,809	65	7,235	74
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	43,644	32	29,179	79	-31,590	20	2,411	93
Bitcoin	14,854	87	23	77	-380	0	357	21

Brazilian Real, Bitcoin and US Dollar Index lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Brazilian Real (79.1 percent), Bitcoin (77.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (75.1 percent) lead the currency markets near the top of their respective ranges. The EuroFX (58.0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores and above the 50 percent level.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (5.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in an extreme bearish position below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (75.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.5 percent)
EuroFX (58.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (49.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (28.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (25.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (19.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (52.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (32.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (17.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.4 percent)
Bitcoin (77.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.3 percent)

Euro leads the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the EuroFX (26.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The British Pound Sterling (17.4 percent), the Mexican Peso (16.2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (5.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-34.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the New Zealand Dollar (-13.5 percent), Japanese Yen (-13.5 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-10.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-9.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.7 percent)
EuroFX (26.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (25.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-0.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-7.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-34.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-43.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-28.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (16.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-3.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-1.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-22.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.2	9.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	67.6	4.5
– Net Position:	30,098	-34,360	4,262
– Gross Longs:	44,998	5,587	6,921
– Gross Shorts:	14,900	39,947	2,659
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	21.2	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	6.4	17.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 74,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	52.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	66.1	8.5
– Net Position:	74,909	-93,832	18,923
– Gross Longs:	226,734	346,949	75,890
– Gross Shorts:	151,825	440,781	56,967
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.0	49.4	9.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-23.4	-6.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,805 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,406 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	73.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	47.3	15.4
– Net Position:	-47,805	66,560	-18,755
– Gross Longs:	43,511	189,146	21,012
– Gross Shorts:	91,316	122,586	39,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	79.3	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-14.1	0.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -102,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	75.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.4	31.9	15.0
– Net Position:	-102,618	118,082	-15,464
– Gross Longs:	37,579	205,120	25,555
– Gross Shorts:	140,197	87,038	41,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	93.3	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	9.6	4.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	68.3	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	18.6	45.0
– Net Position:	-11,300	23,161	-11,861
– Gross Longs:	5,538	31,843	9,097
– Gross Shorts:	16,838	8,682	20,958
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	80.4	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	10.6	-9.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -18,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	51.6	21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	39.1	21.6
– Net Position:	-18,155	18,053	102
– Gross Longs:	35,607	74,064	31,123
– Gross Shorts:	53,762	56,011	31,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	83.8	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.3	26.3	-1.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -51,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	69.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	29.4	17.9
– Net Position:	-51,446	66,319	-14,873
– Gross Longs:	32,159	115,337	15,022
– Gross Shorts:	83,605	49,018	29,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	68.4	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-0.5	-13.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,884 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	62.4	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	30.2	12.6
– Net Position:	-12,884	16,289	-3,405
– Gross Longs:	15,639	31,568	2,983
– Gross Shorts:	28,523	15,279	6,388
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	58.9	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	11.2	8.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 34,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	31.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.9	39.6	0.5
– Net Position:	12,574	-19,809	7,235
– Gross Longs:	161,558	78,742	8,379
– Gross Shorts:	148,984	98,551	1,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	7.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	64.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-17.2	13.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.9	16.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	88.5	3.1
– Net Position:	29,179	-31,590	2,411
– Gross Longs:	31,835	7,041	3,746
– Gross Shorts:	2,656	38,631	1,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	20.5	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	2.9	9.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.6	4.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.5	6.6	5.5
– Net Position:	23	-380	357
– Gross Longs:	11,084	601	1,176
– Gross Shorts:	11,061	981	819
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	46.1	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-2.9	3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Oct

COT Metals Speculators drop Silver bets into small bearish position

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Copper and Platinum lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper (3,383 contracts) with Platinum (2,887 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-8,924 contracts) with Silver (-1,368 contracts) and Palladium (-536 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the decline in the speculators positions for Silver. The large speculators dropped their Silver bets for the third straight week following gains in the previous four weeks. This has brought the overall net position back into a small bearish standing this week (-101 contracts) for the first time in the past five weeks. Previously, the Silver net positioning had spent five weeks from August 23rd to September 20th in bearish territory before seeing speculator positions improve and regain their bullishness on September 27th.

The Silver price, like the other precious metals, remains under pressure and saw a small decline this week. The futures price trades around the $19.15 level and has been in a range between $18 and $20 over the past three weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,942	0	249,079	10	-268,026	92	18,947	32
Gold	456,072	7	68,032	5	-80,213	94	12,181	10
Silver	139,085	12	-101	14	-8,857	87	8,958	14
Copper	179,344	17	-16,919	23	15,907	79	1,012	31
Palladium	7,343	7	-1,745	14	2,228	87	-483	13
Platinum	56,117	15	11,381	24	-14,971	77	3,590	16
Natural Gas	970,872	5	-151,766	33	133,397	73	18,369	24
Brent	166,931	14	-40,301	44	36,912	55	3,389	55
Heating Oil	272,663	25	20,411	72	-38,238	31	17,827	60
Soybeans	651,685	17	57,385	31	-35,301	76	-22,084	34
Corn	1,445,842	25	329,784	72	-273,645	33	-56,139	11
Coffee	208,280	18	11,351	37	-13,326	68	1,975	27
Sugar	723,503	6	111,888	59	-140,147	43	28,259	43
Wheat	324,137	16	-12,913	2	19,896	88	-6,983	74

Strength Scores led by Platinum and Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Platinum (24.4 percent) and Copper (22.9 percent) lead the metals category.

On the downside, Gold (5.3 percent), Palladium (13.6 percent) and Silver (14.0 percent) are at the lowest strength levels currently and all are in extreme bearish positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (5.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.2 percent)
Silver (14.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.5 percent)
Copper (22.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (20.2 percent)
Platinum (24.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (20.5 percent)
Palladium (13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.7 percent)

Platinum leads the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Platinum (17.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Silver (5.0 percent) and Copper (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-9.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Palladium (-2.8 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-9.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.9 percent)
Silver (5.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.5 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.9 percent)
Platinum (17.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (20.5 percent)
Palladium (-2.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	27.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	44.6	6.0
– Net Position:	68,032	-80,213	12,181
– Gross Longs:	212,853	123,085	39,637
– Gross Shorts:	144,821	203,298	27,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	94.4	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	9.5	-3.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	38.1	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	44.4	9.6
– Net Position:	-101	-8,857	8,958
– Gross Longs:	51,163	52,952	22,331
– Gross Shorts:	51,264	61,809	13,373
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	86.9	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-6.0	8.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	44.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	35.6	8.0
– Net Position:	-16,919	15,907	1,012
– Gross Longs:	50,000	79,742	15,339
– Gross Shorts:	66,919	63,835	14,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	79.3	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-3.6	14.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	33.3	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	60.0	5.8
– Net Position:	11,381	-14,971	3,590
– Gross Longs:	28,471	18,686	6,825
– Gross Shorts:	17,090	33,657	3,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	77.1	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-16.3	-4.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	60.0	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	29.6	21.2
– Net Position:	-1,745	2,228	-483
– Gross Longs:	1,618	4,403	1,074
– Gross Shorts:	3,363	2,175	1,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	86.8	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	4.5	-18.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

30 Oct

Bonds Weekly Speculator Bets led by Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (180,417 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (65,690 contracts), the Fed Funds (42,830 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (25,832 contracts), the Long US Bond (9,780 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (3,496 contracts)also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 2-Year Bond (-14,084 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-2,695 contracts) also realizing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,016,242	0	-1,896,658	18	2,000,719	77	-104,061	82
FedFunds	1,710,395	60	72,351	49	-64,838	52	-7,513	41
2-Year	2,133,135	15	-349,596	12	421,363	96	-71,767	20
Long T-Bond	1,223,914	48	-76,559	60	47,904	28	28,655	75
10-Year	3,929,010	60	-247,748	35	296,692	57	-48,944	68
5-Year	4,087,748	56	-461,745	16	546,157	80	-84,412	58

Strength Scores led by US Long Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (59.7 percent) continues to lead the bonds category this week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent), the 2-Year Bond (11.7 percent), 5-Year Bond (15.7 percent) and the Eurodollar (18.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (15.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (34.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (59.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (42.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (40.6 percent)
Eurodollar (18.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.9 percent)

Eurodollar leads the weekly Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (18.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bond (16.0 percent), the 5-Year Bond (9.0 percent)and the US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (3.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-1.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
Eurodollar (18.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,896,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 180,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,077,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	65.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	40.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-1,896,658	2,000,719	-104,061
– Gross Longs:	638,484	5,275,368	577,900
– Gross Shorts:	2,535,142	3,274,649	681,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	76.9	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-21.8	54.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 72,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 42,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	68.8	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	72.6	2.1
– Net Position:	72,351	-64,838	-7,513
– Gross Longs:	273,129	1,177,282	27,698
– Gross Shorts:	200,778	1,242,120	35,211
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	52.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-3.8	18.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -349,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -335,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	63.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-349,596	421,363	-71,767
– Gross Longs:	151,517	1,773,452	159,922
– Gross Shorts:	501,113	1,352,089	231,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	95.7	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	-2.9	2.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -461,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 25,832 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -487,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.8	9.9
– Net Position:	-461,745	546,157	-84,412
– Gross Longs:	239,313	3,479,211	320,339
– Gross Shorts:	701,058	2,933,054	404,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	79.9	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-15.9	19.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -247,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -313,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	76.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	69.3	10.5
– Net Position:	-247,748	296,692	-48,944
– Gross Longs:	453,643	3,019,262	363,812
– Gross Shorts:	701,391	2,722,570	412,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	57.1	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-19.7	14.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -79,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	81.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	69.7	16.6
– Net Position:	-79,346	159,023	-79,677
– Gross Longs:	100,026	1,124,960	150,789
– Gross Shorts:	179,372	965,937	230,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	81.1	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	11.3	18.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -76,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	78.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	74.1	11.7
– Net Position:	-76,559	47,904	28,655
– Gross Longs:	84,406	954,865	171,735
– Gross Shorts:	160,965	906,961	143,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	27.7	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.6	0.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -351,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -354,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	81.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	60.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-351,022	307,021	44,001
– Gross Longs:	95,630	1,185,802	164,658
– Gross Shorts:	446,652	878,781	120,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	62.5	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-1.9	6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

29 Oct

Coffee Speculators drop their bullish bets for 4th week to 118-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Live Cattle, Corn & Soybean Meal lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (22,470 contracts) with Corn (17,365 contracts), Soybean Meal (17,014 contracts), Soybean Oil (16,918 contracts), Lean Hogs (13,290 contracts) and Soybeans (2,702 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-14,524 contracts) with Cocoa (-12,763 contracts), Wheat (-9,372 contracts), Coffee (-7,872 contracts) and Cotton (-7,787 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT softs data this week is the continued fall in Coffee speculator positioning. Coffee large speculator bets have decreased for four straight weeks and in seven out of the past eight weeks. The recent weakness has taken a total of -37,336 contracts off the Coffee speculator position in just the past eight weeks. The overall position now sits at a total of +11,351 contracts, marking the lowest weekly level since July 21st of 2020, a span of 118 weeks.

The Coffee price has dropped by approximately 23 percent over the past three weeks and with a decline of almost 10 percent this week alone. The narrative for the Coffee price decline is that price increases have curtailed demand while a potential increase in supply out of Brazil is coming. However, the Intercontinental Exchange that monitors warehouse stocks of Arabica coffee beans has showed that Coffee stocks are at the lowest levels of the past 20 years. The short-term volatility notwithstanding, the big-picture Coffee story is one of rising worldwide demand and revenue but with some measures showing Coffee supply being hampered (current ICE Coffee stocks) and with climate change also likely to play a role in shaping the future Coffee production story as well.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-25-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,942	0	249,079	10	-268,026	92	18,947	32
Gold	456,072	7	68,032	5	-80,213	94	12,181	10
Silver	139,085	12	-101	14	-8,857	87	8,958	14
Copper	179,344	17	-16,919	23	15,907	79	1,012	31
Palladium	7,343	7	-1,745	14	2,228	87	-483	13
Platinum	56,117	15	11,381	24	-14,971	77	3,590	16
Natural Gas	970,872	5	-151,766	33	133,397	73	18,369	24
Brent	166,931	14	-40,301	44	36,912	55	3,389	55
Heating Oil	272,663	25	20,411	72	-38,238	31	17,827	60
Soybeans	651,685	17	57,385	31	-35,301	76	-22,084	34
Corn	1,445,842	25	329,784	72	-273,645	33	-56,139	11
Coffee	208,280	18	11,351	37	-13,326	68	1,975	27
Sugar	723,503	6	111,888	59	-140,147	43	28,259	43
Wheat	324,137	16	-12,913	2	19,896	88	-6,983	74

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92.1 percent) continues to lead the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Corn (72.2 percent) and Soybean Oil (67.0 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (2.3 percent) and Cocoa (15.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in bearish extreme standings (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (72.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.9 percent)
Sugar (58.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (61.7 percent)
Coffee (36.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (45.2 percent)
Soybeans (31.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (30.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (55.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (82.7 percent)
Live Cattle (59.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (31.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (36.3 percent)
Cotton (29.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (35.3 percent)
Cocoa (15.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.9 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.4 percent)

Strength Trends led by Soybean Oil and Sugar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (26.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (9.2 percent), Corn (4.5 percent) and Cocoa (4.3 percent) are the next highest movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-32.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Cotton (-17.0 percent) followed by Soybeans (-10.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.3 percent)
Sugar (9.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (14.4 percent)
Coffee (-32.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-29.7 percent)
Soybeans (-10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (26.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-4.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-26.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-10.1 percent)
Cotton (-17.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.2 percent)
Cocoa (4.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.7 percent)
Wheat (-6.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 329,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 312,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	43.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	62.2	12.8
– Net Position:	329,784	-273,645	-56,139
– Gross Longs:	453,036	625,537	129,121
– Gross Shorts:	123,252	899,182	185,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	32.9	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-5.6	2.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 111,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	50.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	70.1	6.2
– Net Position:	111,888	-140,147	28,259
– Gross Longs:	199,761	367,374	72,823
– Gross Shorts:	87,873	507,521	44,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	43.3	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-12.0	21.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	50.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	57.3	3.8
– Net Position:	11,351	-13,326	1,975
– Gross Longs:	42,119	106,110	9,859
– Gross Shorts:	30,768	119,436	7,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	67.7	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	33.3	-1.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	54.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	59.8	11.3
– Net Position:	57,385	-35,301	-22,084
– Gross Longs:	126,693	354,542	51,670
– Gross Shorts:	69,308	389,843	73,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	75.9	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	8.1	14.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 93,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	43.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	67.9	5.7
– Net Position:	93,241	-106,036	12,795
– Gross Longs:	123,538	183,248	37,167
– Gross Shorts:	30,297	289,284	24,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	33.6	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-26.1	11.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 116,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	39.7	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.7	76.0	6.1
– Net Position:	116,146	-141,232	25,086
– Gross Longs:	130,508	153,931	48,845
– Gross Shorts:	14,362	295,163	23,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.1	9.5	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.8	7.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 64,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	32.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	53.9	11.7
– Net Position:	64,126	-61,708	-2,418
– Gross Longs:	105,722	90,481	30,509
– Gross Shorts:	41,596	152,189	32,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	28.8	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	1.8	12.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	33.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	48.6	14.3
– Net Position:	40,379	-30,337	-10,042
– Gross Longs:	79,180	65,528	18,149
– Gross Shorts:	38,801	95,865	28,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.7	57.6	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-0.1	-5.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	49.3	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	59.7	4.9
– Net Position:	24,776	-25,690	914
– Gross Longs:	71,296	121,240	13,075
– Gross Shorts:	46,520	146,930	12,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	72.3	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	19.5	-37.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,218 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	46.1	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	46.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,545	-456	2,001
– Gross Longs:	96,233	141,758	12,844
– Gross Shorts:	97,778	142,214	10,843
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	87.1	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-2.4	-19.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	41.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	35.5	11.1
– Net Position:	-12,913	19,896	-6,983
– Gross Longs:	86,299	134,862	29,102
– Gross Shorts:	99,212	114,966	36,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.3	88.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	9.8	-11.1

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