InvestMacro

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.11.21

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0361
Prev Close: 1.0323
% chg. over the last day: -0.37 %

The current situation in the Eurozone has not changed much. Geopolitical tensions remain in the region, which creates new energy threats. For their part, ECB officials seem to be divided over their future plans, with some advocating a sustained aggressive rate hike stance, while others are considering quantitative tightening (QT) earlier than expected to avoid such a hawkish interest rate hike.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0193, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9812
Resistance levels: 1.0384, 1.0504

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has become negative, and there is slight sellers’ pressure. For buy deals, it is best to wait for the completion of the corrective movement to the support levels of 1.0193, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0384 intraday, but it is also better with confirmation since the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9993 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.11.21:

– German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1861
Prev Close: 1.1893
% chg. over the last day: +0.27 %

According to analysts, this week will be quite weak for the British pound as business activity data is forecast to be weak. Friday’s UK retail sales data was slightly positive, although a negative annual figure is not a reason to be very positive. On the other hand, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the UK’s budget report may start the process of repairing Britain’s battered reputation.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418, 1.1172, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.1921

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the levels of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative, indicating a corrective movement. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.1684 or even 1.1476. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1921, but also better with confirmation since the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1418 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 140.19
Prev Close: 140.34
% chg. over the last day: +0.11 %

Even though inflation in Japan has reached a 40-year-high, the BoJ has no intention of abandoning its soft stimulus policy. At the moment, the BoJ is ignoring the global trend of central banks raising interest rates to fight inflation. Considering the fact that the Fed keeps raising interest rates, a bullish trend in the USD/JPY currency pair is the most likely scenario.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 139.44, 137.65, 136.80
Resistance levels: 141.05, 143.17, 145.16, 146.06, 147.34, 148.82, 150.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The price forms a trading range (balance) and is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive again, indicating market participants’ uncertainty. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 139.44, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 141.05 on the condition of a reverse reaction or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 146.06, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3325
Prev Close: 1.3384
% chg. over the last day: +0.44 %

The Canadian dollar continues to show resilience against the US dollar despite hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve policymakers. The increase in USD/CAD quotes is more caused by falling oil prices than by the strengthening of the dollar. The strength of the Canadian dollar may be due to rising expectations of a peak rate after last week’s release of Canadian inflation data. The peak rate is expected to reach about 4.25%. Markets are still factoring in the 50% chance of a 50 bps rate hike at the Bank of Canada meeting on December 7.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3351, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3508, 1.3608, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But inside the day, there is a predominance of buying. The MACD indicator is positive again, and the price is trading above the levels of moving averages. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3508, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level 1.3351 or 1.3281, but with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3508, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Nov

China has a new record of Covid cases. Investors are returning to the dollar and gold

By JustMarkets

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals have heightened fears of a potential US recession. Central Bank officials say they will not keep raising rates until inflation approaches its annual target range. This is a deterrent to further gains in stock indices. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.59% (+0.25% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.48% (-0.32% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.01% (-0.78% for the week).

The Fed is set to release the minutes of its November meeting on Wednesday, and investors eagerly await any indication that policymakers will consider slowing the tightening process.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rallied last week. German DAX (DE30) gained 1.16% (+0.95% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.04% (+0.33% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.08% (+0.04% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Friday up by 0.53% (+0.92% for the week).

ECB officials seem to be divided over their future plans, with some advocating a sustained aggressive rate hike stance, while others are considering quantitative tightening (QT) earlier than expected to avoid such a hawkish interest rate hike. ECB President Christine Lagarde seems to support raising interest rates as the best tool for containing inflation.

Italy’s new right-wing government plans to announce Monday new spending of about 30 billion euros in next year’s budget, mostly focused on containing the impact of high energy prices. In an effort to help families cope with incredible inflation, which has reached an annualized rate of 12.6%, according to an EU-agreed index, the cabinet is considering eliminating a sales tax on necessities.

Oil prices fell on Monday, extending last week’s losses, as worries over rising COVID-19 infections in China and a potential global recession worsened demand prospects. On the other hand, if European politicians decide this week to put a ceiling on Russian oil prices, it could lead to supply cuts in the coming months, especially if inventories deplete faster. Therefore, the prospect of higher oil prices remains high. OPEC countries will meet on December 4 to decide on production, and any further supply cuts are likely to push oil prices higher.

The outlook for gold remains upward, despite some uncertainty. On the one hand, gold is rising on inflation expectations. On the other hand, gold does not protect against inflation and suffers greatly from rising interest rates. But analysts believe that given the fact that the market is now close to a maximum in interest rates, and in 2023 is expected to pause and then lower rates (according to the futures curve for the federal funds), such an asset as gold should take a weighty share in portfolios of active investors.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 1.31% over the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended down by 0.04%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) decreased by 0.09%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday left key lending rates unchanged for the third straight month as the central bank tries to strike a balance between boosting economic growth and curbing further yuan depreciation. The rise in COVID-19 cases in China has led to new lockdown measures in some of the country’s biggest cities, adding to fears of a slowdown in demand for crude oil from the world’s biggest oil importer. The country is currently battling its worst COVID outbreak since April, when several cities were blockaded.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+8.37%), sugar (+2.09%), and corn (+1.71%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Futures on coffee (-13.66%), WTI oil (-9.78%), Brent oil (-8.59%), gasoline (-7.32%), copper (-7.04%), platinum (-4.98%), palladium (-4.49%), silver (-3.19%), cotton (-3.14%) and cocoa (-2.22%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,965.34 +18.78 (+0.48%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,745.69 +199.37 (+0.59%)

DAX (DE40) 14,431.86 +165.48 (+1.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,385.52 +38.98 (+0.53%)

USD Index 106.97 +0.28 (+0.26%)

Important events for today:

– German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Nov

Trade of the Week: Kiwi to reach 200-day SMA on record RBNZ hike?

By ForexTime

The New Zealand dollar has been flying high in this tail-end of 2022.

And it could be further boosted by a hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) this week.

NZD in Q4: by the numbers

NZD has a quarter-to-date gain against all of its G10 and Asian peers.

Here’s a sample:

NZD up 3.1% against GBP
NZD up 4.4% against EUR
NZD up 5.3% against AUD
NZD up 6.5% against JPY
NZD up 8.5% against USD

(% performance since September 30th till time of writing)

Even going slightly further back, for the second half of this year so far, the kiwi only has declines against FX safe havens such as the US dollar, Swiss Franc, Singapore dollar, and the Hong Kong dollar (HKD is pegged to USD).

What’s driving NZD’s outperformance of late?

Markets are forecasting a 64% chance that the RBNZ will trigger a 75-basis point hike this week.

If so, that which would be the RBNZ’s largest ever hike since its official cash rate was rolled out in 1999!

And a record hike would only add to cumulative hikes by this central bank, having already raised its official cash rate by 325 basis points (bps) since October 2021, including 50-basis points at each of its past five meetings.

Generally speaking, the higher interest rates go in an economy relative to its peers, the stronger its currency.

Why would the RBNZ need to trigger a record hike?

A larger 75bps hike may be needed to keep consumer prices from rising uncontrollably.

Note that a central bank’s main weapon against runaway consumer prices is by raising interest rates to “destroy” demand in the economy.

Keep in mind:

New Zealand’s consumer price index (CPI) for the third quarter rose by 7.2% compared to 3Q 2021.
That 7.2% figure was above the median forecast of 6.5%, with the former number being near its highest levels since 1990!

And that’s even with all of the RBNZ’s hikes that have been incurred over the past year which apparently are having little impact on the inflation scourge so far.

Hence, NZD has been lifted on the wings of expectations that the RBNZ may well send its benchmark rates higher than previously anticipated.

Markets are now forecasting that New Zealand’s interest rates will keep rising from the 3.5% level at present before peaking around 5.15% by mid-2023.

And this has been an opportune time for NZD bulls to take advantage of the US dollar’s pullback, with markets expecting that the Fed is getting closer to being down with its own US rate hikes.

But if the RBNZ actually opts for a 50-bps hike this week instead, that may disappoint NZD bulls who had been hoping for that larger 75bps hike, potentially prompting them to unwind some of NZD’s recent gains.

Can NZDUSD reach 200-day SMA?

At present, markets are forecasting only a 16% chance of NZDUSD the 0.63 mark, around where the kiwi’s (nickname for NZDUSD) 200-day simple moving average currently lies.

After all, Kiwi bulls (those hoping NZDUSD can climb higher) are already encountering resistance around the 0.62 psychological area, which has been a key battle region between bulls and bears since May.

Looking at a key technical indicator, NZDUSD’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is also pulling back from the 70 threshold which typically denotes overbought conditions, suggesting that the NZD’s ascent has gone too far.

To the downside lies its 100-day SMA, just above the 0.60 mark, which may offer underlying support should the RBNZ disappoint this week or if the US dollar’s catches fresh safe haven bids.

Markets are currently forecasting a 41% chance of 0.60 being attained by Kiwi bears for the next one-week period.

To recap, NZDUSD’s performance this week may all come down to the following key events:

the size of the RBNZ’s actual cash rate hike
RBNZ’s outlook for the cash rate going into 2023
Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday/scheduled speeches by Fed officials this week

And on that final point above, let’s take a brief look at the USD half of NZDUSD.

Noting that this week is absent of tier-1 US economic data, the US dollar could react to fresh policy clues out of the FOMC meeting minutes and the Fed speakers due before the Thanksgiving break.

Should the US dollar relinquish its gains at the onset of this week, on renewed hopes that the Fed is closer to being down with its own rate hikes, that could make NZDUSD’s path towards its 200-day SMA a lot easier.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Nov

Currency Speculators continue to trim their US Dollar Index bullish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Japanese Yen & Mexican Peso top Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese yen (9,416 contracts) with the Mexican peso (8,237 contracts), the British pound sterling (6,901 contracts), the Canadian dollar (5,544 contracts), the Euro (5,067 contracts), the Brazilian real (4,517 contracts), the Australian dollar (1,934 contracts), Bitcoin (553 contracts) and the Swiss franc (327 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (-3,339 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (-261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the US Dollar Index positioning. Large speculators dropped their bullish bets for the US Dollar Index this week by the most in the past eight weeks and have now decreased their weekly bets for four out of the past five weeks. The Dollar positions have slipped under +30,000 contracts for the second time in three weeks and this week’s level marks the lowest net standing in the past 59-weeks, dating back to September 28th of 2021. Overall, the Dollar positioning has been in a continuous bullish position for the past 72-weeks, dating back to July of 2021.

The price of the Dollar Index has been in retreat since reaching a 20-year high of over 114.00 at the end of the September. Since the start of November, the Dollar Index has declined sharply from a November 3rd high at over 113.00 to this week’s close on Friday November 18th at 106.83.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	48,382	63	26,854	70	-29,981	28	3,127	51
EUR	682,575	70	112,666	70	-151,573	33	38,907	41
GBP	230,102	55	-32,834	41	49,439	68	-16,605	25
JPY	233,346	70	-65,842	28	77,213	73	-11,371	30
CHF	41,966	25	-16,827	14	21,637	78	-4,810	41
CAD	139,753	23	-12,920	26	14,229	81	-1,309	27
AUD	162,440	54	-44,749	43	54,112	59	-9,363	30
NZD	42,589	32	-6,628	55	8,381	48	-1,753	31
MXN	303,442	97	67,851	56	-74,563	42	6,712	71
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	23,469	4	9,018	59	-12,404	39	3,386	100
Bitcoin	17,901	100	571	87	-914	0	343	21

Bitcoin tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (86.9 percent) leads the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The US Dollar Index (69.7 percent) and the EuroFX (69.6 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (13.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength score currently and the only one with an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (69.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (75.3 percent)
EuroFX (69.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (68.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (40.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (34.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (41.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (55.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (55.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (56.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (52.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (59.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.8 percent)
Bitcoin (86.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.3 percent)

Strength Trends led by Mexican Peso

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (44.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (21.2 percent), the British Pound Sterling (14.3 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (13.9 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-25.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Brazilian Real (-16.5 percent), the Australian Dollar (-15.8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-8.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.6 percent)
EuroFX (21.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (14.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (5.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (9.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-25.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-29.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-1.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-11.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (13.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (44.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (43.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-28.8 percent)
Bitcoin (10.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-17.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	4.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	66.4	5.6
– Net Position:	26,854	-29,981	3,127
– Gross Longs:	38,965	2,149	5,843
– Gross Shorts:	12,111	32,130	2,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	28.2	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	10.8	-21.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 112,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,599 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	50.3	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	72.5	6.9
– Net Position:	112,666	-151,573	38,907
– Gross Longs:	239,369	343,388	86,147
– Gross Shorts:	126,703	494,961	47,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	33.0	41.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-26.9	41.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	74.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	52.5	15.8
– Net Position:	-32,834	49,439	-16,605
– Gross Longs:	34,699	170,322	19,676
– Gross Shorts:	67,533	120,883	36,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	67.7	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.3	-20.2	25.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	74.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	41.0	15.2
– Net Position:	-65,842	77,213	-11,371
– Gross Longs:	33,797	172,905	24,061
– Gross Shorts:	99,639	95,692	35,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	73.3	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-7.9	0.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	69.7	24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	18.1	35.4
– Net Position:	-16,827	21,637	-4,810
– Gross Longs:	2,271	29,249	10,058
– Gross Shorts:	19,098	7,612	14,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	78.0	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	9.0	14.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	50.2	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	40.0	22.7
– Net Position:	-12,920	14,229	-1,309
– Gross Longs:	37,456	70,173	30,478
– Gross Shorts:	50,376	55,944	31,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	80.6	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-3.1	-9.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -44,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	67.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	34.5	15.0
– Net Position:	-44,749	54,112	-9,363
– Gross Longs:	33,214	110,099	15,029
– Gross Shorts:	77,963	55,987	24,392
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	59.3	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	11.4	4.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,628 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	57.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.5	37.4	10.4
– Net Position:	-6,628	8,381	-1,753
– Gross Longs:	15,285	24,311	2,680
– Gross Shorts:	21,913	15,930	4,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.1	48.3	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-15.3	17.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 67,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.2	31.5	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	56.1	0.9
– Net Position:	67,851	-74,563	6,712
– Gross Longs:	197,700	95,530	9,390
– Gross Shorts:	129,849	170,093	2,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	41.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.9	-44.4	5.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 9,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.9	8.5	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	61.3	5.8
– Net Position:	9,018	-12,404	3,386
– Gross Longs:	16,397	1,986	4,742
– Gross Shorts:	7,379	14,390	1,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	39.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	14.8	17.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.7	0.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.6	5.9	5.0
– Net Position:	571	-914	343
– Gross Longs:	14,096	137	1,231
– Gross Shorts:	13,525	1,051	888
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	20.1	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-24.0	-2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Nov

Bonds Speculator’s bearish bets surge to push 2-Year Bond positions to record low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower overall this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while six other markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (145,719 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (4,465 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 2-Year Bond (-102,997 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (-59,962 contracts), the Fed Funds (-48,469 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (-48,163 contracts), the Long US Bond (-6,956 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (-2,545 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the 2-Year Bond position that continues to see the bearish bets pile up. Large speculators sharply added to their bearish positioning this week by a total of -102,997 contracts and marking the largest one-week bearish gain since February. Overall, bearish bets have risen for the past four straight weeks and for five out of the past six weeks. The bearish position has now risen by a total of -250,758 contracts over just the past four weeks.

This continued weakness for the 2-Year has pushed the overall net position standing to the lowest on record for a third straight week with this week’s standing totaling -586,270 contracts, according to CFTC data going back to 1990.

The 2-Year Bond futures price has continued to be in a steep downtrend but has trended a bit higher in the past week off its recent low touched on November 4th at 101.19.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,670,696	0	-1,966,931	17	2,232,777	81	-265,846	46
FedFunds	1,488,043	42	-26,285	36	32,822	64	-6,537	43
2-Year	2,261,042	22	-586,270	0	590,806	100	-4,536	50
Long T-Bond	1,199,687	43	-97,681	53	78,745	39	18,936	68
10-Year	4,015,833	66	-343,021	20	405,129	70	-62,108	65
5-Year	4,333,912	70	-547,618	3	632,207	90	-84,589	58

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (52.8 percent) leads the bonds category and is the only bond market above the 50 percent level (3-Year Midpoint).

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and currently at the bottom of its 3-Year range. The 5-Year Bond (2.7 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) and the Eurodollar (16.9 percent) join the 2-Year Bond with scores in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (42.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (29.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (55.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (31.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (29.3 percent)
Eurodollar (16.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.2 percent)

10-Year Bond lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the 10-Year Bond (3.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The Eurodollar (2.2 percent), the US Treasury Bond (1.9 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.8 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-41.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with a steep drop while the next markets with lower trend scores was the 5-Year Bond (-9.8 percent) followed by the Fed Funds (-2.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-2.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-9.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-41.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-24.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (3.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (12.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (1.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.1 percent)
Eurodollar (2.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,966,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 145,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,112,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	67.9	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	38.8	8.7
– Net Position:	-1,966,931	2,232,777	-265,846
– Gross Longs:	559,946	5,207,904	402,188
– Gross Shorts:	2,526,877	2,975,127	668,034
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	81.0	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-2.0	-2.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,285 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -48,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	75.6	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	73.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-26,285	32,822	-6,537
– Gross Longs:	149,693	1,124,421	38,519
– Gross Shorts:	175,978	1,091,599	45,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.4	63.9	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	1.0	29.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -586,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -102,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -483,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	56.1	8.5
– Net Position:	-586,270	590,806	-4,536
– Gross Longs:	146,333	1,859,038	187,082
– Gross Shorts:	732,603	1,268,232	191,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.6	29.6	37.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -547,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -499,455 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	69.2	9.1
– Net Position:	-547,618	632,207	-84,589
– Gross Longs:	309,373	3,632,210	310,934
– Gross Shorts:	856,991	3,000,003	395,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	90.3	57.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	0.9	15.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -343,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -59,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	66.0	11.0
– Net Position:	-343,021	405,129	-62,108
– Gross Longs:	472,288	3,054,508	379,476
– Gross Shorts:	815,309	2,649,379	441,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	70.0	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-1.4	-2.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -79,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	79.9	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	66.7	17.1
– Net Position:	-79,073	184,254	-105,181
– Gross Longs:	133,971	1,114,722	133,372
– Gross Shorts:	213,044	930,468	238,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	87.6	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	4.2	-12.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -97,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	79.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	72.8	13.0
– Net Position:	-97,681	78,745	18,936
– Gross Longs:	57,233	951,931	174,421
– Gross Shorts:	154,914	873,186	155,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	38.7	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-2.3	0.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -377,708 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -382,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	81.5	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	59.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-377,708	326,617	51,091
– Gross Longs:	94,540	1,217,889	170,609
– Gross Shorts:	472,248	891,272	119,518
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	72.9	73.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	3.5	-4.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

20 Nov

COT Metals Speculators boost their Gold bullish bets to 13-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (43,931 contracts) with Copper (6,908 contracts), Silver (4,604 contracts), Platinum (3,095 contracts) and Palladium (1,338 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rebound of the Gold speculator bets. The large speculator position for Gold jumped by over +40,000 contracts this week following a gain by over +17,000 contracts. This week’s rise marked the highest weekly gain in 143-weeks and the renewed speculator sentiment has pushed the overall Gold net position back above the +100,000 contract level for the first time since early September. The Gold speculator net standing is now at the highest level since August 16th when the net contracts was +141,164 contracts.

Gold prices have had a bit of an upswing since November 4th as well as the futures price has risen from the (Nov. 4th) opening level of $1,631.00 to close out this week at the $1,754.40 threshold. Gold, also this week, touched its highest level since the middle of August just below $1,792.00 before retreating lower.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,469,437	3	278,267	18	-307,395	81	29,128	48
Gold	495,171	17	126,269	25	-134,308	78	8,039	0
Silver	141,623	14	17,607	34	-29,424	67	11,817	27
Copper	168,962	9	9,821	44	-13,583	56	3,762	47
Palladium	8,793	14	-1,072	17	1,231	81	-159	32
Platinum	63,391	27	22,544	39	-27,037	62	4,493	28
Natural Gas	978,425	6	-152,114	33	120,830	69	31,284	54
Brent	139,080	4	-25,194	69	20,782	28	4,412	69
Heating Oil	275,254	26	25,660	80	-46,933	21	21,273	72
Soybeans	616,094	9	76,804	37	-49,046	72	-27,758	24
Corn	1,421,555	22	252,908	62	-211,862	42	-41,046	19
Coffee	191,743	6	-14,154	0	11,840	100	2,314	32
Sugar	832,522	26	156,194	59	-201,779	39	45,585	64
Wheat	350,091	27	-22,481	0	29,310	100	-6,829	75

Copper & Platinum lead Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (44.1 percent) and Platinum (39.4 percent) lead the metals category. Silver (33.5 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (17.5 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position with a score under 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (24.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (33.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.4 percent)
Copper (44.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (38.6 percent)
Platinum (39.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.2 percent)
Palladium (17.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.7 percent)

Platinum tops the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Platinum (25.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (22.3 percent), Gold (12.6 percent) and Silver (9.8 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-2.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (9.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (13.5 percent)
Copper (22.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.4 percent)
Platinum (25.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (25.9 percent)
Palladium (-2.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-9.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 43,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	27.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	54.4	5.8
– Net Position:	126,269	-134,308	8,039
– Gross Longs:	227,282	135,035	36,973
– Gross Shorts:	101,013	269,343	28,934
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	77.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-11.7	-0.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	34.2	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	54.9	8.9
– Net Position:	17,607	-29,424	11,817
– Gross Longs:	52,692	48,393	24,386
– Gross Shorts:	35,085	77,817	12,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	67.4	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-11.2	14.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	36.5	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	44.6	8.0
– Net Position:	9,821	-13,583	3,762
– Gross Longs:	60,730	61,693	17,332
– Gross Shorts:	50,909	75,276	13,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	56.5	47.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-24.5	20.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.2	27.4	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	70.1	4.8
– Net Position:	22,544	-27,037	4,493
– Gross Longs:	33,079	17,374	7,567
– Gross Shorts:	10,535	44,411	3,074
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	61.9	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-25.1	8.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	51.3	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	37.3	15.0
– Net Position:	-1,072	1,231	-159
– Gross Longs:	1,997	4,512	1,161
– Gross Shorts:	3,069	3,281	1,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	81.1	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	5.0	-23.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

20 Nov

Soft Commodities Speculators drop their Coffee bets to 158-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Sugar & Cocoa top Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower overall this week as four out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other seven markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (66,012 contracts) with Cocoa (13,895 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,282 contracts) and Lean Hogs (897 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-48,646 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-16,485 contracts), Soybeans (-11,005 contracts), Live Cattle (-9,513 contracts), Coffee (-9,471 contracts), Wheat (-5,267 contracts) and Cotton (-364 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

A highlight of this week’s COT soft commodities data is the continued decline of the Coffee futures positioning that have hit their first net bearish positions since July of 2020. Large speculators dropped their weekly bets for Coffee for the seventh straight week this week and for the tenth time out of the past eleven weeks. Coffee bets have now fallen by a total of -58,834 contracts over just these past seven weeks and are in an overall bearish position for the second straight week.

The decline in spec bets has happened very rapidly as bullish positions were as high as +40,000 contracts on November 1st while the position leveled at a total net position of -14,154 contracts through Tuesday. This week’s net position marks the lowest speculator standing since November 5th of 2019, a span of 158 weeks.

Coffee prices have been on a steep drop as well with futures prices falling by over -35 percent since late-August. Helping put a dent in prices is an improved outlook for production out of Brazil that is seen as positive for the coffee harvest.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,469,437	3	278,267	18	-307,395	81	29,128	48
Gold	495,171	17	126,269	25	-134,308	78	8,039	0
Silver	141,623	14	17,607	34	-29,424	67	11,817	27
Copper	168,962	9	9,821	44	-13,583	56	3,762	47
Palladium	8,793	14	-1,072	17	1,231	81	-159	32
Platinum	63,391	27	22,544	39	-27,037	62	4,493	28
Natural Gas	978,425	6	-152,114	33	120,830	69	31,284	54
Brent	139,080	4	-25,194	69	20,782	28	4,412	69
Heating Oil	275,254	26	25,660	80	-46,933	21	21,273	72
Soybeans	616,094	9	76,804	37	-49,046	72	-27,758	24
Corn	1,421,555	22	252,908	62	-211,862	42	-41,046	19
Coffee	191,743	6	-14,154	0	11,840	100	2,314	32
Sugar	832,522	26	156,194	59	-201,779	39	45,585	64
Wheat	350,091	27	-22,481	0	29,310	100	-6,829	75

Soybean Meal & Soybean Oil lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (85.8 percent) continues to lead the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position with a score above 80 percent. Soybean Oil (75.3 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores followed by Corn (62.3 percent) and Sugar (59.4 percent).

On the downside, Coffee (0.0 percent) joins Wheat (0.0 percent) at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (62.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (68.6 percent)
Sugar (59.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (41.7 percent)
Coffee (0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.2 percent)
Soybeans (37.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (75.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (71.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (85.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.0 percent)
Live Cattle (39.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (51.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (52.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (51.3 percent)
Cotton (24.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (24.4 percent)
Cocoa (42.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (28.7 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.2 percent)

Strength Trends led by Soybean Oil, Sugar & Cocoa

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Soybean Oil (31.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (29.1 percent), Cocoa (25.4 percent) and Lean Hogs (19.8 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-66.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Wheat (-33.2 percent) followed by Cotton (-13.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.6 percent)
Sugar (29.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (11.1 percent)
Coffee (-66.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-58.1 percent)
Soybeans (3.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (2.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (31.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-0.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.4 percent)
Live Cattle (6.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-4.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.3 percent)
Cotton (-13.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-16.2 percent)
Cocoa (25.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.5 percent)
Wheat (-33.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-23.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 252,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 301,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	46.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	61.8	12.2
– Net Position:	252,908	-211,862	-41,046
– Gross Longs:	386,487	667,033	133,045
– Gross Shorts:	133,579	878,895	174,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	41.7	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	4.0	13.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 156,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 66,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	47.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	71.2	6.0
– Net Position:	156,194	-201,779	45,585
– Gross Longs:	251,928	391,034	95,587
– Gross Shorts:	95,734	592,813	50,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	39.0	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-34.2	36.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	54.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	47.8	4.1
– Net Position:	-14,154	11,840	2,314
– Gross Longs:	37,332	103,544	10,167
– Gross Shorts:	51,486	91,704	7,853
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-66.3	63.6	2.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	52.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	60.7	12.1
– Net Position:	76,804	-49,046	-27,758
– Gross Longs:	143,181	325,093	46,855
– Gross Shorts:	66,377	374,139	74,613
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	71.6	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-2.8	-1.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 105,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	42.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	68.8	5.6
– Net Position:	105,263	-120,768	15,505
– Gross Longs:	138,838	198,013	41,274
– Gross Shorts:	33,575	318,781	25,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	24.3	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.1	-33.2	28.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 104,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,234 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	41.8	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	72.9	6.8
– Net Position:	104,749	-124,282	19,533
– Gross Longs:	125,175	167,387	46,718
– Gross Shorts:	20,426	291,669	27,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	18.3	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	0.9	-2.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 47,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	34.5	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	52.0	11.7
– Net Position:	47,916	-49,845	1,929
– Gross Longs:	98,274	98,081	35,307
– Gross Shorts:	50,358	147,926	33,378
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	45.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-8.1	4.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	34.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	51.4	13.9
– Net Position:	41,759	-32,298	-9,461
– Gross Longs:	77,835	67,502	17,551
– Gross Shorts:	36,076	99,800	27,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	55.3	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.8	-16.7	-20.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	47.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	58.1	6.0
– Net Position:	20,113	-21,900	1,787
– Gross Longs:	66,427	94,503	13,814
– Gross Shorts:	46,314	116,403	12,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	76.5	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	12.6	-6.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,948 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	45.9	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	56.8	3.4
– Net Position:	25,843	-28,597	2,754
– Gross Longs:	85,052	120,925	11,816
– Gross Shorts:	59,209	149,522	9,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	59.2	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.4	-26.2	7.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	39.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	31.2	11.3
– Net Position:	-22,481	29,310	-6,829
– Gross Longs:	90,194	138,565	32,837
– Gross Shorts:	112,675	109,255	39,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	75.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.2	38.5	3.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

18 Nov

Dramatic collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX contains lessons for investors but won’t affect most people

By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Appalachian State University

In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, vast sums of money can be made or lost in the blink of an eye. In early November 2022, the second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, was valued at more than US$30 billion. By Nov. 14, FTX was in bankruptcy proceedings along with more than 100 companies connected to it. D. Brian Blank and Brandy Hadley are professors who study finance, investing and fintech. They explain how and why this incredible collapse happened, what effect it might have on the traditional financial sector and whether you need to care if you don’t own any cryptocurrency.

1. What happened?

In 2019, Sam Bankman-Fried founded FTX, a company that ran one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges.

FTX is where many crypto investors trade and hold their cryptocurrency, similar to the New York Stock Exchange for stocks. Bankman-Fried is also the founder of Alameda Research, a hedge fund that trades and invests in cryptocurrencies and crypto companies.

Within the traditional financial sector, these two companies would be separate firms entirely or at least have divisions and firewalls in place between them. But in early November 2022, news outlets reported that a significant proportion of Alameda’s assets were a type of cryptocurrency released by FTX itself.

A few days later, news broke that FTX had allegedly been loaning customer assets to Alameda for risky trades without the consent of the customers and also issuing its own FTX cryptocurrency for Alameda to use as collateral. As a result, criminal and regulatory investigators began scrutinizing FTX for potentially violating securities law.

These two pieces of news basically led to a bank run on FTX.

Large crypto investors, like FTX’s competitor Binance, as well as individuals, began to sell off cryptocurrency held on FTX’s exchange. FTX quickly lost its ability to meet customer withdrawals and halted trading. On Nov. 14, FTX was also hit by an apparent insider hack and lost $600 million worth of cryptocurrency.

That same day, FTX, Alameda Research and 130 other affiliated companies founded by Bankman-Fried filed for bankruptcy. This action may leave more than a million suppliers, employees and investors who bought cryptocurrencies through the exchange or invested in these companies with no way to get their money back.

Among the groups and individuals who held currency on the FTX platform were many of the normal players in the crypto world, but a number of more traditional investment firms also held assets within FTX. Sequoia Capital, a venture capital firm, as well as the Ontario Teacher’s Pension, are estimated to have held millions of dollars of their investment portfolios in ownership stake of FTX. They have both already written off these investments with FTX as lost.

2. Did a lack of oversight play a role?

In traditional markets, corporations generally limit the risk they expose themselves to by maintaining liquidity and solvency. Liquidity is the ability of a firm to sell assets quickly without those assets losing much value. Solvency is the idea that a company’s assets are worth more than what that company owes to debtors and customers.

But the crypto world has generally operated with much less caution than the traditional financial sector, and FTX is no exception. About two-thirds of the money that FTX owed to the people who held cryptocurrency on its exchange – roughly $11.3 billion of $16 billion owed – was backed by illiquid coins created by FTX. FTX was taking its customers’ money, giving it to Alameda to make risky investments and then creating its own currency, known as FTT, as a replacement – cryptocurrency that it was unable to sell at a high enough price when it needed to.

In addition, nearly 40% of Alameda’s assets were in FTX’s own cryptocurrency – and remember, both companies were founded by the same person.

This all came to a head when investors decided to sell their coins on the exchange. FTX did not have enough liquid assets to meet those demands. This in turn drove the value of FTT from over $26 a coin at the beginning of November to under $2 by Nov. 13. By this point, FTX owed more money to its customers than it was worth.

In regulated exchanges, investing with customer funds is illegal. Additionally, auditors validate financial statements, and firms must publish the amount of money they hold in reserve that is available to fund customer withdrawals. And even if things go wrong, the Securities Investor Protection Corporation – or SIPC – protects depositors against the loss of investments from an exchange failure or financially troubled brokerage firm. None of these guardrails are in place within the crypto world.

3. Why is this a big deal in crypto?

As a result of this meltdown, the company Binance is now considering creating an industry recovery fund – akin to a private version of SIPC insurance – to avoid future failures of crypto exchanges.

But while the collapse of FTX and Alameda – valued at more than $30 billion and now essentially worth nothing – is dramatic, the bigger implication is simply the potential lost trust in crypto. Bank runs are rare in traditional financial institutions, but they are increasingly common in the crypto space. Given that Bankman-Fried and FTX were seen as some of the biggest, most trusted figures in crypto, these events may lead more investors to think twice about putting money in crypto.

4. If I don’t own crypto, should I care?

Though investment in cryptocurrencies has grown rapidly, the entire crypto market – valued at over $3 trillion at its peak – is much smaller than the $120 trillion traditional stock market.

While investors and regulators are still evaluating the consequences of this fall, the impact on any person who doesn’t personally own crypto will be minuscule. It is true that many larger investment funds, like BlackRock and the Ontario Teachers Pension, held investments in FTX, but the estimated $95 million the Ontario Teachers Pension lost through the collapse of FTX is just 0.05% of the entire fund’s investments.

The takeaway for most individuals is not to invest in unregulated markets without understanding the risks. In high-risk environments like crypto, it’s possible to lose everything – a lesson investors in FTX are learning the hard way.

About the Author:

D. Brian Blank, Assistant Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Associate Professor of Finance and the David A. Thompson Professor in Applied Investments, Appalachian State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Cryptocurrencies Opinions

18 Nov

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 18.11.2022 (EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD

The pair is pushing off the signal lines of the indicator, going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests the prevalence of an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud is expected at 1.0285, followed by growth to 1.0715. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0015, which will entail further falling to 0.9925. The growth can be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the descending channel and securing above 1.0425.

AUDUSD

The pair is testing the resistance level, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which means an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud is expected at 0.6655, followed by growth to 0.6955. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6445, which will entail further falling to 0.6345. The growth can be secured by a breakaway of the upper border of the correctional channel and securing above 0.6745.

GBPUSD

The pair has secured above the upper border of the bullish channel, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests the prevalence of an uptrend. A test of the Tenkan-Sen line at 1.1825 is expected, followed by growth to 1.2305. An additional signal confirming the growth of the pair will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.1455, which will mean further falling to 1.1365.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 Nov

Murrey Math Lines 18.11.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

BRENT

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of the downtrend. The RSI is nearing the oversold area. Currently, we should expect a test of 1/8 (89.06), a breakaway of it, and falling to the support level of 0/8 (87.50). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 2/8 (90.62). In this case, the quotes might rise to 3/8 (92.19).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the downtrend and a high probability of further price falling.

S&P 500

On H4, the quotes have bounced off the 200-day Moving Average and are now beneath it, which indicates the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. Currently, we expect the price to break through the support level of 1/8 (3906.2) downwards and fall to 0/8 (3750.0). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 2/8 (4062.5). This might lead to a trend reversal and growth of the index quotes to 3/8 (4218.8).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which increases the probability of further falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Stock Market News

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