InvestMacro

Inflation, unemployment, the housing crisis and a possible recession: Two economists forecast what’s ahead in 2023

By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Rodney Ramcharan, University of Southern California

With the current U.S. inflation rate at 7.1%, interest rates rising and housing costs up, many Americans are wondering if a recession is looming.

Two economists discussed that and more in a recent wide-ranging and exclusive interview for The Conversation.
Brian Blank is a finance professor at Mississippi State University who specializes in the study of corporations and how they respond to economic downturns. Rodney Ramcharan is an economist at the University of Southern California who previously held posts with the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund.

Both were interviewed by Bryan Keogh, deputy managing editor and senior editor of economy and business for The Conversation.

Below are some highlights from the discussion. Answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Brian Blank and Rodney Ramcharan talk about the economic outlook for 2023.

Are we headed for a recession in 2023?

Brian Blank: The consensus view among most forecasters is that there is a recession coming at some point, maybe in the middle of next year. I’m a little bit more optimistic than that consensus.

People have been calling for a recession for months now, and this seems to be the most anticipated recession on record. I think that it could still be a ways off. Consumer balance sheets are still relatively strong, stronger than we’ve seen them for most periods.

I think that the labor market is going to remain hotter than people have expected. Right now, over the last eight months, the labor market has added more jobs than anticipated, which is one of the strongest streaks on record. And I think that until consumer balance sheets weaken considerably, we can expect consumer spending, which is the largest part of the economy, to continue to grow quickly.

[But this] doesn’t mean that a recession is not coming. There’s always a recession somewhere down the road.

Rodney Ramcharan: Indeed, yes, there’s a likelihood that the economy is going to contract in the next nine months. The president of the New York Fed expects the unemployment rate to go up from 3.5% currently to somewhere between 4% to 5% in the next year. And I think that will be consistent with a recession.

In terms of how much worse it can be beyond that, it’s going to depend on a number of things. It could depend on whether the Fed is going to accept a higher inflation rate over the medium term or whether it’s really committed to getting the inflation rate down to the 2% rate. So I think that’s the trade-off.

Will unemployment go up?

Blank: [Unemployment] hasn’t risen much, and maybe it’ll pick up to somewhere close to 4%. Many are expecting something like four and a half percent. And I think that’s certainly possible. And I think that we can see small upticks in the coming months.

But I don’t think it’s going to rise as quickly as some people are expecting, in part because what we’ve seen so far is a lack of labor force participation. Until more people enter the labor market, I think there are going to be plenty of jobs to go around.

What is your outlook on interest rates?

Ramcharan: As people find it more and more difficult to find jobs, or to get jobs as they begin to lose jobs, I think that’s going to dampen spending. And we’re seeing that now as the cost of borrowing has gone up sharply, and the Fed is expecting that.

The expectation is the federal funds rate will go up to 5% by next year. If you tack on another couple of points, because of the risk involved, then the cost to borrow to buy a home could potentially get up to 8% for some people. And that could be very expensive.

And the flip side of this for businesses is there’s potentially going to be a slowdown in cash flow. If consumers are not spending, then the revenues that businesses depend on to make investments might not be there.

The additional piece in this puzzle is what the banks will then do. I think banks are going to begin to curtail the extension of credit. So not only will interest rates go up for the typical consumer and the typical business, it’s also likely that they are more likely to experience denial of credit, and so that should together begin to slow spending quite a bit.

After massive increases in housing prices, what caused them to suddenly drop?

Ramcharan: As the Fed lowered interest rates, there was a massive shift among the population for various reasons. They decided that housing was the right investment or the right thing. And so when 50 million people all collectively decide to buy homes, the supply of homes is reasonably constrained in the short run. And so that led to this massive increase in house prices and in rents.

In the last three months, the housing market has cooled sharply. We’re now seeing house prices beginning to fall. I would imagine, going forward, the housing market cooling is going to be a major driver behind the slowdown in the inflation rate and in real estate investment trusts. So that’s positive.

Our recent election just changed the composition of Congress. How will that affect the economy?

Blank: Certainly, when we have a divided Congress, we’re less likely to see decisions made that involve passing legislation that might support the economy. And I think it’s likely the Republican House is going to become a little bit more conservative with spending.

And so if we do start to see a downturn, I think you’re less likely to see legislation that might help support an economy that could be in need of it. That is going to make the job of the Federal Reserve more important.

How certain are these predictions?

Ramcharan: I just want to be careful here and let your viewers know that we’re making these statements based on theory, because the inflation that we’re experiencing now comes about from a pandemic, and there really is no evidence, there’s no data available, that people can look to to say, “What happens to an economy after a pandemic?” That data does not exist.

So we’re trying to piece together the data we do have with the theories we do have, but there’s a huge band of uncertainty about what’s going to happen.

Watch the full interview here.

About the Authors:

D. Brian Blank, Assistant Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University and Rodney Ramcharan, Professor of Finance and Business Economics, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

19 Dec

Stocks rebound as central banks point to a tricky 2023

By ForexTime

Stumbling markets had fallen for a second consecutive week on Friday after investors heard hawkish messages from the feast of central bank meetings.

Expectations had been set that interest rates would remain higher for longer even though inflation and economic data has started to turn lower.

But this morning has seen a bid in equity markets with US futures looking positive and in the green.

The benchmark S&P500 US index has eyes on the 50-day simple moving average at 3863 as initial resistance.

The mild change in improved sentiment comes from China’s alleged move to enact pro-business policies and stimulus next year.

The upside target for the bulls is the 100-day SMA at 3926.4 which would take prices back to the choppy range that was seen for most of November and December.

Will DAX’s “golden cross” entice more bulls?

European stocks are still digesting their biggest decline in many months last week.

The ECB delivered a much more hawkish message than expected saying that interest rates were set to rise “significantly” at a steady pace.

Many ECB watchers were taken aback by this shift with some calling it a “hawkish pivot”.

This rhetoric will be a key driver for European assets in the new year, but it certainly put a dent in eurozone and global growth prospects as well over the coming months.

The German Dax tumbled last Thursday out of its recent range, despite forming a ‘golden cross’ (when 50-day SMA crosses above its 200-day counterpart) earlier this month.

The 50-day simple moving average sits at 13736 with the widely-watched 200-day SMA at 13561.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

19 Dec

EUR/USD Is Aimed at Growth

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The currency major has tested six-month highs and remains at 1.0610.

By now, investors have got maximum information from December. The US Fed has increased the interest rate to 4.50% and promised further increases in accordance with inflation. The European Central Bank has lifted the rate to 2.50% as expected but the comments turned out to be even more carnivorous than expected.

The final inflation report in the Euro zone in November demonstrated growth to 10.1% y/y against the forecast 10.0%. Meanwhile, the base CPI remained at 5.0% y/y.

Until Christmas, the markets will continue analysing the information to become active again after winter holidays.

On H4, the pair has completed an impulse of decline to 1.0586. Today a consolidation range is expected to form above it. With an escape downwards, a wave of decline to 1.0507 might become possible. The goal is local. Then growth to 1.0585 and a decline to 1.0440 will become possible. Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is headed strictly down, suggesting further development of the wave of decline.

On H1, the pair has formed a structure of decline to 1.0585. A link of correction to 1.0640 is not excluded, followed by falling to 1.0555, from where the wave might continue to 1.0510. The goal is local. Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic: its signal line is above 80 and is preparing to develop a new impulse of decline to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Dec

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 19.12.2022 (AUDUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has left the borders of a bullish channel. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Tenkan-Sen line at 0.6715 is expected, followed by falling to 0.6545. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.6855, which will mean further growth to 0.6945.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has secured under the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.0575 is expected, followed by growth to 1.0895. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0405, which will mean further falling to 1.0310.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is testing the broken border of the bullish channel. The instrument is going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a flat. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 0.6380 is expected, followed by falling to 0.6175. A signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.6470, which will mean further growth to 0.6565. The decline will be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the bullish channel and securing under 0.6305.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Dec

Murray Math Lines 19.12.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has bounced off the support level. Currently, growth above 7/8 (1.0620) is expected, followed by growth to the resistance level of 8/8 (1.0742). The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the support level of 6/8 (1.0498). In this case, the pair may drop to 5/8 (1.0376).

On M15, an additional signal confirming growth will be a breakaway of the upper border of VoltyChannel.

GBPUSD

On H4, the quotes are also above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has risen above the resistance level. So, an upward breakaway of 6/8 (1.2207) is expected, followed growth to the resistance level of 7/8 (1.2451). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 5/8 (1.2207), which might lead to a trend reversal and falling to 4/8 (1.1718).

On M15, a breakaway of the upper border of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of price growth to 7/8 (1.2451) on H4.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.19

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0622
Prev Close: 1.0584
% chg. over the last day: -0.36 %

The latest US inflation report highlighted the peak of the Fed’s hawkish stance. But the largest component of the Consumer Price Index continues to rise, leaving concerns about tight prices ahead. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley said Friday that the central bank is “far” from its goal of price stability and that the market remains more dovish than the Fed predicts about interest rates going forward.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0549, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0641, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is correcting to the nearest support levels. The MACD indicator became negative, and within the day, sales prevailed. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0549 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level 1.0641, but it is better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or false breakout because the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.19:

– Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2177
Prev Close: 1.2137
% chg. over the last day: -0.33 %

According to S&P Global Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson, the latest economic data raises the possibility that the UK is already in recession, with PMIs pointing to a 0.3% contraction in fourth quarter GDP after a 0.2% decline. This week the UK will release its final Q4 GDP data, and experts believe the economy will enter a technical recession. In addition to the stagnant economy, the UK is in a series of strikes that will hit the economy even harder. Strikes by nurses, railway workers, and postal services in December will cause not only economic damage but also provoke civil unrest.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2092, 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2197, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages and is approaching the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence, which indicates some weakness of the sellers. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support level of 1.2092 but with confirmation on the intraday time frames. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2197, but they are also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.2100 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 137.76
Prev Close: 136.71
% chg. over the last day: -0.76 %

The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy and interest rate meeting this week. The “ultra-dovish” Bank of Japan is expected to adhere to a negative interest rate policy. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is due to step down in April 2023 after ten years at the helm, and major policy changes before then are unlikely. Meanwhile, new inflation data this week will show another rise in consumer prices.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.61
Resistance levels: 136.81, 138.00, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish, but the probability of change in the trend is increasing. The price is forming a wide-volatile flat, and the MACD indicator indicates that it is getting harder for the sellers to put pressure on the price. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 135.61, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be looked for from the resistance level of 136.81, provided there is a reverse reaction.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3656
Prev Close: 1.3696
% chg. over the last day: +0.29 %

Renewed recession fears and long-term interest rate hikes by global central banks stifled oil’s recovery from last week. Rising rates are negatively affecting the demand for “black” gold, which translates into lower quotes. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so falling oil prices lead to a weakening of the Canadian national currency (growth of USD/CAD). However, in the mid-term, the Canadian dollar has strong fundamental support from the Bank of Canada as the latter keeps one of the highest interest rates.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3601, 1.3521, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price is trading above the slips, but the price has hit a strong resistance level of 1.3700. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but the divergence indicates that the buyers are limited in their potential. Buy trades should be considered only after a breakout and a fixation above 1.3700. Sell deals are better to look for on the intraday time frames, but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakout because the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Dec

Prospects for a “Santa Claus rally” are decreasing by reassessment of global bank policy tightening

By JustMarkets

Prospects for a “Santa Claus rally” are decreasing every day as investors fear that aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening will hamper stock indices. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.85% (-1.79% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 1.11% (-2.21% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.97% on Friday (-2.81% for the week). All three indices closed the week lower.

The outlook for economic activity, financial conditions, and investment appetite is rather limited at the moment. The search for a recovery in risk assets over the past few weeks has been more of a course of investor complacency than a turnaround in fundamentals. Assumptions about seasonal trends are likely to play a bigger role in market developments over the next few weeks than any significant change in issues such as interest rate expectations.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down last week. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.67% (-2.85% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 1.08% (-2.94% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 index (ES35) was down by 1.29% (-1.80% for the week), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Friday down by 1.27% (-1.93% for the week).

In Europe, the tension between Italy and the ECB is growing. Three high-ranking Italian politicians criticized the European Central Bank’s increase in borrowing costs, pointing to rising tensions between Giorgio Meloni’s government and Frankfurt officials. Italy’s defense minister, a close ally of Meloni, tweeted Thursday that the ECB’s interest rate hike and President Christine Lagarde’s hawkish tone are an unwelcome “gift” to the country. The yield spread between German and Italian 10-year bonds, considered a key indicator of risk in the region, widened 13 basis points to more than 200 basis points Thursday after the ECB’s decision. And on Friday, the spread rose another 10 basis points to 215 basis points. The European Central Bank expects to implement at least two more successive rate hikes of 50 basis points.

Oil recovery last week was stifled by renewed recession fears and long-term interest rate hikes by global central banks. Rising rates have a negative impact on the demand for “black” gold, which translates into lower quotes. Also, the growth of infections in China (one of the largest importers of oil in the world) may further reduce the demand for fuel. On the other hand, the US Department of Energy announced on Friday that from February, it would begin to replenish depleted national strategic oil reserves (SPR) with an initial purchase of 3 million barrels. This news may push oil bulls to buy oil.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.77% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.71%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.73%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) fell by 0.47%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 0.78% for the week.

China’s economic activity weakened in November before the government abruptly abandoned its Covid Zero policy, with a surge in infections in the coming months likely to cause more turmoil and push policymakers to increase stimulus. Key data released Thursday showed that business and consumer activity fell to its lowest level since the spring quarantine in Shanghai.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+5.86%), WTI oil (+5.14%), coffee (+4.55%), BRENT oil (+4.15%), gasoline (+4.1%), wheat (+3.23%) and sugar (+2.5%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Futures on palladium (-13.37%), lumber (-5.48%), platinum (-3.58%), copper (-2.8%), and orange juice (-2.44%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,852.36 −43.39 (−1.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,920.46 −281.76 (−0.85%)

DAX (DE40) 13,893.07 −93.16 (−0.67%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,332.12 −94.05 (−1.27%)

USD Index 104.84 +0.28 (+0.27%)

Important events for today:

– Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

17 Dec

Currency Speculators cut Japanese Yen bearish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,808 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (2,726 contracts), British Pound (2,454 contracts), Brazilian Real (1,261 contracts), US Dollar Index (892 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (419 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-5,158 contracts), Mexican Peso (-3,588 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-1,008 contracts), EuroFX (-168 contracts) and Bitcoin (-107 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data this week is the improvement being seen in the Japanese yen speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Japanese yen have risen for two straight weeks and in six out of the past seven weeks. This improvement for the yen has taken the net position from a total of -102,618 contracts on October 25th to just a total of -53,188 contracts this week for a total reduction in the bearish position by +49,430 contracts. The yen speculator position is now at the least bearish level in the past fifteen weeks.

The yen exchange rate versus the dollar has been on the mend as well after falling to over a 30-year low in October at the 151.94 exchange rate. The yen has rallied by approximately 10 percent since the recent low and has been helped out by a decreasing interest rate differential between the US bonds and the Japanese bonds (see chart below). The yen could see further improvement if the USDJPY falls below the approaching the 200-day moving average.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	48,069	63	25,778	68	-28,482	31	2,704	46
EUR	772,800	100	124,715	73	-157,377	31	32,662	31
GBP	240,264	61	-25,739	47	31,288	55	-5,549	47
JPY	226,964	66	-53,188	36	59,029	64	-5,841	42
CHF	49,340	64	-11,811	23	15,972	71	-4,161	43
CAD	169,433	43	-27,248	9	24,924	89	2,324	35
AUD	172,269	62	-37,837	50	42,845	51	-5,008	40
NZD	55,294	64	-7,506	34	6,096	61	1,410	68
MXN	290,116	91	44,364	46	-49,811	52	5,447	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	34,190	19	3,459	50	-5,560	49	2,101	86
Bitcoin	13,989	71	-40	76	-409	0	449	23

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (76 percent) and the EuroFX (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The US Dollar Index (68 percent), Australian Dollar (50 percent) and the Brazilian Real (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (23 percent), New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (67.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (36.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (47.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (34.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (47.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (49.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (48.3 percent)
Bitcoin (76.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (78.1 percent)

British Pound & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (16 percent) and the Japanese Yen (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (12 percent), the Swiss Franc (8 percent) and the Bitcoin (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-10 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.7 percent)
EuroFX (5.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-27.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-28.9 percent)
Bitcoin (7.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.6	2.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	61.8	6.4
– Net Position:	25,778	-28,482	2,704
– Gross Longs:	38,766	1,245	5,782
– Gross Shorts:	12,988	29,727	3,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	30.5	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	7.7	-9.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 124,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	53.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	73.9	7.9
– Net Position:	124,715	-157,377	32,662
– Gross Longs:	236,415	414,090	94,033
– Gross Shorts:	111,700	571,467	61,371
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	31.4	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-8.1	15.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	66.0	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	53.0	12.9
– Net Position:	-25,739	31,288	-5,549
– Gross Longs:	32,008	158,686	25,472
– Gross Shorts:	57,747	127,398	31,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	55.3	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-23.2	29.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	69.2	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	43.2	14.3
– Net Position:	-53,188	59,029	-5,841
– Gross Longs:	22,290	157,021	26,668
– Gross Shorts:	75,478	97,992	32,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	64.5	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-17.9	25.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	68.9	21.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	36.6	29.9
– Net Position:	-11,811	15,972	-4,161
– Gross Longs:	2,081	34,016	10,597
– Gross Shorts:	13,892	18,044	14,758
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	71.3	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-19.4	29.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,090 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	51.6	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	36.9	17.6
– Net Position:	-27,248	24,924	2,324
– Gross Longs:	31,720	87,471	32,089
– Gross Shorts:	58,968	62,547	29,765
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	89.5	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	4.7	7.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	61.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	36.4	13.0
– Net Position:	-37,837	42,845	-5,008
– Gross Longs:	35,825	105,480	17,339
– Gross Shorts:	73,662	62,635	22,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	50.8	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-14.8	17.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	52.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	41.0	7.0
– Net Position:	-7,506	6,096	1,410
– Gross Longs:	19,700	28,793	5,297
– Gross Shorts:	27,206	22,697	3,887
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.1	60.9	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	-1.9	51.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.1	36.8	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	53.9	0.9
– Net Position:	44,364	-49,811	5,447
– Gross Longs:	168,481	106,698	7,935
– Gross Shorts:	124,117	156,509	2,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	52.0	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	0.3	-4.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.7	22.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.6	38.4	4.0
– Net Position:	3,459	-5,560	2,101
– Gross Longs:	23,161	7,574	3,455
– Gross Shorts:	19,702	13,134	1,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	49.3	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	24.7	23.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.2	2.9	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.5	5.8	6.3
– Net Position:	-40	-409	449
– Gross Longs:	10,666	403	1,329
– Gross Shorts:	10,706	812	880
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	44.6	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-19.1	-0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

17 Dec

COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, 5-Year Bond lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 13th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Bullish and Top Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score or at the exact top of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the strength score shows a gain of 7.7 over the past six-weeks.

The overall net speculator position was a total of 133,532 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,358 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 95.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the strength score was a gain of 11.3 percent.

The speculator position registered -3,090 net contracts this week with a weekly edge higher by 149 contract in speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a plus 19.2 change over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was 19,198 net contracts this week with a boost of 5,681 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score or at the bottom of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is -19.6 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -691,537 net contracts this week with a drop of -32,931 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is -23.7 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -39,918 net contracts this week with a tiny decline of -21 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is -4.7 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -101,471 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,481 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 5.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score has fallen by -6.7 percentage points over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was 229,559 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,161 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Coffee

Finally, the Coffee speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 7.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is fall of -13.4 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -9,470 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,172 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

17 Dec

Large Speculators raise their Metals bets led higher by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (10,524 contracts) with Silver (3,611 contracts), Platinum (2,809 contracts), Copper (877 contracts) and Palladium (489 contracts) all showing positive weeks.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the gains in bets for the Gold positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fourth time over the past six weeks. Speculator bets have now increased by a total of +61,026 contracts over these past six weeks, going from a total of +64,623 contracts on November 1st to a total of +125,649 contracts this week. These recent gains have now put the net position above +100,000 for the fifth straight week after having been below that threshold for nine consecutive weeks (from September 13th to November 8th) which was the longest stretch under +100,000 net contracts since 2018.

The Gold futures price has been moving positively as well with prices closing higher on a weekly basis for five out of the past seven weeks. The Gold price hit a recent bottom at the $1,618.30 level in early November and has rallied by approximately 11 percent since then to close out this week slightly above the $1,800.00 price threshold.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	437,040	4	125,649	24	-138,529	76	12,880	12
Silver	125,555	4	22,819	39	-35,806	61	12,987	33
Copper	162,191	11	2,556	38	-6,559	62	4,003	48
Palladium	7,494	8	-883	20	854	77	29	43
Platinum	72,416	43	28,445	47	-32,624	55	4,179	24

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (47 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (39 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Gold (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (24.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (20.9 percent)
Silver (39.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (35.3 percent)
Copper (38.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (37.7 percent)
Platinum (47.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.6 percent)
Palladium (20.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (17.2 percent)

Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (23 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (20 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (6 percent) is the lowest in trend scores currently with Copper (8 percent) coming in next. The all positive movement score underlines the change of sentiment for the metals category after spending many weeks of 2022 with all or most of the metals with negative trends.

Move Statistics:
Gold (20.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (15.6 percent)
Silver (23.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (21.3 percent)
Copper (8.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.8 percent)
Platinum (16.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (19.2 percent)
Palladium (6.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.3	27.4	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	59.1	5.6
– Net Position:	125,649	-138,529	12,880
– Gross Longs:	224,409	119,908	37,309
– Gross Shorts:	98,760	258,437	24,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	76.4	12.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-19.7	6.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	35.8	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	64.3	8.6
– Net Position:	22,819	-35,806	12,987
– Gross Longs:	51,405	44,913	23,843
– Gross Shorts:	28,586	80,719	10,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	61.4	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-24.0	19.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	40.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	44.9	7.9
– Net Position:	2,556	-6,559	4,003
– Gross Longs:	58,057	66,265	16,760
– Gross Shorts:	55,501	72,824	12,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.9	48.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-11.3	26.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	29.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	74.1	4.5
– Net Position:	28,445	-32,624	4,179
– Gross Longs:	39,112	21,003	7,434
– Gross Shorts:	10,667	53,627	3,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	54.9	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-16.3	6.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	48.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	37.2	13.6
– Net Position:	-883	854	29
– Gross Longs:	2,466	3,644	1,050
– Gross Shorts:	3,349	2,790	1,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	77.3	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-8.5	23.0

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COT Updates Metals Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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