InvestMacro

COT Bonds Speculators Weekly Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (29,641 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (12,741 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,481 contracts), Fed Funds (4,973 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,605 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-32,931 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-7,232 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-1,377 contracts).

Some Highlights of this week’s bonds data:

5-Year Bonds bets fell again this week and dropped to the most bearish level in 216-weeks, dating back to October of 2018.
Eurodollar bets and futures prices have been improving steadily since hitting recent lows in August
2-Year Bond speculator positions have improved in three out of the past four weeks since falling to a record low bearish position on November 15th
The 10-Year Bond speculator bets have fallen for two straight weeks and the overall position is at the most bearish level since August 30th at a total of -376,438 contracts

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,223,627	0	-1,614,221	23	1,847,037	74	-232,816	53
FedFunds	1,402,582	38	-73,894	30	83,130	70	-9,236	36
2-Year	2,202,604	19	-521,799	10	519,176	89	2,623	53
Long T-Bond	1,185,521	40	-116,738	47	76,266	38	40,472	85
10-Year	3,822,244	52	-376,438	15	474,930	78	-98,492	57
5-Year	4,114,021	58	-691,537	0	774,022	100	-82,485	58

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (47 percent) continues to lead the bond markets and is the only market close to the 50 percent or 3-Year midpoint.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2 percent), 2-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (46.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (33.5 percent)
Eurodollar (23.4 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (22.9 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (9 percent) and the Eurodollar (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 5-Year Bonds (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-12.5 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-18.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-19.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-25.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-18.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-7.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (8.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.5 percent)
Eurodollar (6.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (4.7 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,614,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,643,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	69.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	43.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-1,614,221	1,847,037	-232,816
– Gross Longs:	534,813	5,006,987	353,101
– Gross Shorts:	2,149,034	3,159,950	585,917
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	74.1	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-6.6	7.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -73,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,973 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	77.5	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	71.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-73,894	83,130	-9,236
– Gross Longs:	121,174	1,087,398	34,439
– Gross Shorts:	195,068	1,004,268	43,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	70.0	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	6.4	11.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -521,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -534,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	80.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	57.0	8.2
– Net Position:	-521,799	519,176	2,623
– Gross Longs:	193,812	1,774,593	183,713
– Gross Shorts:	715,611	1,255,417	181,090
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	89.2	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	8.3	13.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -691,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -32,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -658,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	66.7	9.4
– Net Position:	-691,537	774,022	-82,485
– Gross Longs:	241,345	3,519,766	304,790
– Gross Shorts:	932,882	2,745,744	387,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	16.3	2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -376,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -369,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	64.4	11.4
– Net Position:	-376,438	474,930	-98,492
– Gross Longs:	452,127	2,938,306	336,813
– Gross Shorts:	828,565	2,463,376	435,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	78.3	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	15.6	-12.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -101,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.4	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	62.8	17.6
– Net Position:	-101,471	195,085	-93,614
– Gross Longs:	169,295	1,094,617	158,109
– Gross Shorts:	270,766	899,532	251,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	90.3	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	8.7	-10.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -116,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	79.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	72.7	11.4
– Net Position:	-116,738	76,266	40,472
– Gross Longs:	60,004	938,513	176,212
– Gross Shorts:	176,742	862,247	135,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	37.8	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	4.1	8.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -371,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	83.7	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	62.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-367,168	310,758	56,410
– Gross Longs:	59,908	1,194,785	165,771
– Gross Shorts:	427,076	884,027	109,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	64.5	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-13.3	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

17 Dec

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Soybean Meal bullish bets to 236-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,398 contracts) with Corn (13,855 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,358 contracts), Sugar (9,927 contracts) with Cocoa (5,353 contracts), Coffee (5,172 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,552 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-10,669 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-5,281 contracts), Cotton (-4,281 contracts) and Wheat (-21 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Soybean Meal speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Soybean Meal rose this week for a third consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Soybean Meal (currently at +133,532 contracts) to the highest level in the past two-hundred and thirty-six weeks, dating back to June 5th of 2018.

Soybean Meal futures prices dipped this week despite the continued strong sentiment. The Soybean Meal futures price had previously gained for three straight weeks and hit the highest price level since March above the 470.0 threshold. The futures price closed out the week right around the 460.0 support/resistance area.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,450,482	4	229,559	5	-247,747	97	18,188	29
Gold	437,040	4	125,649	24	-138,529	76	12,880	12
Silver	125,555	4	22,819	39	-35,806	61	12,987	33
Copper	162,191	11	2,556	38	-6,559	62	4,003	48
Palladium	7,494	8	-883	20	854	77	29	43
Platinum	72,416	43	28,445	47	-32,624	55	4,179	24
Natural Gas	996,823	9	-153,681	32	129,960	72	23,721	36
Brent	148,097	10	-28,567	62	25,351	36	3,216	53
Heating Oil	270,751	24	17,308	68	-32,771	36	15,463	52
Soybeans	638,744	14	113,059	46	-82,011	64	-31,048	19
Corn	1,205,259	0	212,230	57	-173,223	47	-39,007	21
Coffee	198,702	11	-9,470	8	8,451	93	1,019	14
Sugar	899,777	38	193,051	60	-228,593	38	35,542	52
Wheat	335,354	21	-39,918	0	42,894	100	-2,976	95

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Sugar (60 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (57 percent), Live Cattle (53 percent) and Soybeans (46 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score this week was Lean Hogs (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (55.4 percent)
Sugar (60.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (56.9 percent)
Coffee (7.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (45.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (38.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (41.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (48.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (93.8 percent)
Live Cattle (53.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (48.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (37.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.6 percent)
Cotton (18.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.5 percent)
Cocoa (39.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (34.6 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (43 percent) and Cocoa (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-24 percent), Corn (-16 percent) and Lean Hogs (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.8 percent)
Sugar (42.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (24.5 percent)
Coffee (-13.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-11.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-14.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-1.8 percent)
Cotton (-1.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.6 percent)
Cocoa (31.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (19.3 percent)
Wheat (-23.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 212,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	47.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	61.7	13.4
– Net Position:	212,230	-173,223	-39,007
– Gross Longs:	316,184	570,199	122,422
– Gross Shorts:	103,954	743,422	161,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	47.2	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	16.2	8.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 193,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	44.6	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	70.0	6.2
– Net Position:	193,051	-228,593	35,542
– Gross Longs:	288,052	401,488	91,410
– Gross Shorts:	95,001	630,081	55,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	37.6	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.6	-39.7	17.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	53.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	48.7	4.0
– Net Position:	-9,470	8,451	1,019
– Gross Longs:	44,628	105,240	8,917
– Gross Shorts:	54,098	96,789	7,898
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	93.1	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	13.9	-13.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 113,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	50.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	63.6	12.4
– Net Position:	113,059	-82,011	-31,048
– Gross Longs:	172,330	324,126	48,054
– Gross Shorts:	59,271	406,137	79,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	64.1	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-7.8	-4.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 55,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	49.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	66.2	5.5
– Net Position:	55,642	-68,529	12,887
– Gross Longs:	95,349	203,433	35,470
– Gross Shorts:	39,707	271,962	22,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	57.1	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	26.7	-4.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 133,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.8	36.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.8	75.0	7.5
– Net Position:	133,532	-152,141	18,609
– Gross Longs:	148,357	142,149	47,862
– Gross Shorts:	14,825	294,290	29,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	3.8	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-3.6	-37.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	32.9	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	51.5	12.2
– Net Position:	58,815	-55,162	-3,653
– Gross Longs:	114,479	97,378	32,476
– Gross Shorts:	55,664	152,540	36,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	37.7	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	7.4	-2.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	36.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	49.0	13.1
– Net Position:	33,627	-23,073	-10,554
– Gross Longs:	69,910	68,312	13,877
– Gross Shorts:	36,283	91,385	24,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.2	69.2	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	13.2	6.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	49.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	57.0	5.9
– Net Position:	14,439	-14,822	383
– Gross Longs:	62,069	98,286	12,021
– Gross Shorts:	47,630	113,108	11,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	82.6	12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	0.9	2.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	46.5	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	56.5	3.0
– Net Position:	23,317	-26,669	3,352
– Gross Longs:	84,900	123,825	11,260
– Gross Shorts:	61,583	150,494	7,908
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	61.1	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-32.2	9.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	40.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	28.2	10.6
– Net Position:	-39,918	42,894	-2,976
– Gross Longs:	94,335	137,316	32,455
– Gross Shorts:	134,253	94,422	35,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	24.0	19.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

17 Dec

Stock Market Speculator bets trend lower led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was Russell-Mini (9,651 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (5,681 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-26,403 contracts), VIX (-8,399 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,969 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-939 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-356 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,477,140	15	-230,122	14	212,726	79	17,396	30
Nikkei 225	18,813	23	-2,964	63	1,418	37	1,546	48
Nasdaq-Mini	312,984	79	19,198	86	-12,779	19	-6,419	40
DowJones-Mini	106,454	79	-12,542	24	20,249	85	-7,707	1
VIX	347,723	51	-82,978	57	85,453	42	-2,475	79
Nikkei 225 Yen	39,328	19	8,049	59	3,511	20	-11,560	57

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (86 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (63 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (57 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (14 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the DowJones-Mini (24.2 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (57.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (63.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (24.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (25.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (82.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (31.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (26.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (63.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (65.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (25.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (19.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (13 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-14 percent) and the Russell-Mini (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-12.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-14.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-10.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-6.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (3.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (19.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (4.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-14.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-19.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (13.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -82,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	54.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	29.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-82,978	85,453	-2,475
– Gross Longs:	56,330	188,883	25,721
– Gross Shorts:	139,308	103,430	28,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	41.8	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	10.6	14.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -230,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -203,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	73.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	64.8	10.6
– Net Position:	-230,122	212,726	17,396
– Gross Longs:	226,507	1,816,921	279,775
– Gross Shorts:	456,629	1,604,195	262,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	78.7	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	2.1	8.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	55.9	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	36.8	20.3
– Net Position:	-12,542	20,249	-7,707
– Gross Longs:	23,411	59,477	13,855
– Gross Shorts:	35,953	39,228	21,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	85.2	1.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	5.9	1.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	58.6	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	62.7	13.9
– Net Position:	19,198	-12,779	-6,419
– Gross Longs:	73,103	183,306	36,975
– Gross Shorts:	53,905	196,085	43,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	18.6	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-25.8	14.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	82.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	71.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-63,784	57,647	6,137
– Gross Longs:	44,847	426,831	27,878
– Gross Shorts:	108,631	369,184	21,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	65.5	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	6.7	3.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	45.9	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	38.4	13.7
– Net Position:	-2,964	1,418	1,546
– Gross Longs:	3,193	8,634	4,132
– Gross Shorts:	6,157	7,216	2,586
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	36.7	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	9.2	14.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	90.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	89.4	2.2
– Net Position:	-14,886	4,926	9,960
– Gross Longs:	18,081	386,031	19,545
– Gross Shorts:	32,967	381,105	9,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	66.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-24.5	73.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

16 Dec

Murrey Math Lines 16.12.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

BRENT

On H4, Brent quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates a downtrend. The RSI has broken through the descending trendline. In this situation, further falling to the support level of 1/8 (78.12) is expected. The scenario can be cancelled by an upwards breakaway of the resistance level of 3/8 (84.38), which might lead to a trend reversal and growth to the resistance level of 4/8 (87.50).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms a downtrend and increases the probability of further price falling.

S&P 500

On H4, the quotes have dropped under the 200-day Moving Average, indicating the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has broken through the support level downwards. As a result, further falling of the quotes to 0/8 (3750.0) is expected. The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 2/8 (4062.5). This might lead to a trend reversal and growth to 3/8 (4218.8).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which increases the probability of further price falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Stock Market News

16 Dec

EUR holds positions. Overview for 16.12.2022

By RoboForex.com

The market major used the US statistics quite efficiently. The current quote is 1.0650.

EURUSD is trying and trying to grow, though investors look quite tired after the active week.

The US statistics published yesterday demonstrated a decline in November retail sales by 0.6% m/m, while a decline by 0.2% had been forecast after previous growth by 1.3% m/m. Retail sales minus cars dropped by 0.2% m/m, while the forecast had suggested growth by 0.2%. Industrial production in the US in November dropped by 0.2% m/m upon falling in October by 0.1% m/m. Meanwhile, growth by 0.2% m/m had been expected. Production power load dropped to 79.7% from 79.9% previously.

Obviously, the US economy is falling deeper in recession though officials would not admit it.

The December meeting of the European Central Bank resulted in the expected increase in the interest rate by 50 base points, to 2.50% a year. The rhetoric of the regulator was unexpectedly tough, but this only supported the EUR. Christine Lagarde commented that global growth had slowed down due to tightening of financial conditions; weakening of the economy might lead to a certain increase in unemployment. Financial measures can increase inflation stress but the ECB risks it to reach long-term goals. Judging by their reactions, investors were satisfied.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.16

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0680
Prev Close: 1.0626
% chg. over the last day: -0.50 %

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its interest rate by another 50 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, bringing its discount rate to the upper limit of most estimates of a neutral configuration for the eurozone, at 2%. The ECB’s new macroeconomic forecasts predict inflation above the ECB’s price stability definition for the entire three-year forecast horizon. The peak discount rate is forecast at 3.25%. Eurozone’s inflation data will be released today. Analysts forecast that consumer prices will remain unchanged.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0580, 1.0549, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. The price is trading above the moving averages, but there is selling pressure on the lower time frames. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0580 or 1.0549, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0695, but it is better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout because the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.16:

– French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2414
Prev Close: 1.2177
% chg. over the last day: -1.95 %

Yesterday the Bank of England raised its interest rate by 0.5% as expected, but it did not help the British currency to keep the fall, as dollar index growth provoked a sell-off in major currency pairs. The Bank of England said that further rate hikes might be needed to meet the bank’s goal of 2%. Investors expect the Bank of England to raise its key rate to 4.5% by the middle of next year, which implies two more hikes of 0.5% each.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages, and selling prevails inside the day. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to look for from the support level of 1.2177, but with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell trades are best sought from the resistance level of 1.2308, but also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.2100 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.16:

– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 135.43
Prev Close: 137.78
% chg. over the last day: +1.73 %

Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in December from 49.0 in the previous month. For the second month, the index is below the 50 mark, which separates contraction from growth. Meanwhile, service sector activity rose due to a rebound in tourism. The Services Business Activity Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.7 in December, up from 50.3 in the previous month. The Japanese yen is still under pressure as the Bank of Japan firmly sticks to its soft monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 137.18, 135.61
Resistance levels: 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish, but the probability of trend change is increasing as the price has consolidated above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator shows buying pressure. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 139.09, provided that there is a reverse reaction. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 137.18, but only with confirmation, as the level is quite high relative to the growth wave.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3544
Prev Close: 1.3655
% chg. over the last day: +0.82 %

The Canadian dollar lost some ground yesterday due to the rise in the dollar index and the decline in oil prices. In the medium term, the Canadian dollar has strong fundamental support from the Bank of Canada as the BoC holds one of the highest interest rates, on par with the US Federal Reserve. Therefore, only oil prices will have the greatest impact on the USD/CAD quotes.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3601, 1.3521, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3690, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is positive again. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3601, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3690, but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakout, since the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Dec

Week Ahead: Can USDJPY break below 200-day SMA?

By ForexTime

After the Fed, BOE and the ECB have all had their say this week, up steps the Bank of Japan over the coming week, amid these other scheduled economic data releases and events:

Monday, December 19

NZD: New Zealand 4Q consumer confidence
EUR: Germany December IFO business climate

Tuesday, December 20

NZD: New Zealand November external trade, December business confidence
AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes
CNH: China loan prime rates
JPY: Bank of Japan rate decision
EUR: Eurozone December consumer confidence
CAD: Canada October retail sales
Nike earnings

Wednesday, December 21

NZD: New Zealand December consumer confidence
Crude: EIA weekly oil inventories
CAD: Canada November consumer price index (CPI)
USD: US December consumer confidence

Thursday, December 22

GBP: UK 3Q GDP (final)
USD: US weekly initial jobless claims; 3Q GDP

Friday, December 23

JPY: Japan November CPI, BOJ releases October meeting minutes
USD: US November PCE deflator, personal income and spending; December manufacturing activity, consumer sentiment (final)

To be clear, the Bank of Japan is not expected to change anything next week: no rate hike, no policy adjustments, nada.

However, it’s what the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says about plans for policy changes in the future, that might be catalyst for major moves for the Japanese Yen.

In the lead up to next week’s meeting, several BOJ officials are reported to be open to reviewing their policy settings in 2023.

Markets now need confirmation from the BOJ’s top boss.

BOJ wants stronger demand-pull inflation before exiting negative rate regime

Keep in mind that, as the rest of the world embarked on an aggressive series of rate hikes in 2022, Japan’s policy balance rate has remained rooted in negative territory, currently at -0.10%.

This is because the BOJ wants to see inflationary pressures become more entrenched in the world’s third largest economy.

Against such a context, we’re due to learn of Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) – which measures inflation – a week from today:

The November CPI is forecasted to reach 3.9%, which would be almost double the BOJ’s 2% target.
A 3.9% print would also be its highest since January 1991.

However, the BOJ believes even these higher CPI prints are only reflective of higher costs, as opposed to stronger consumer demand that’s pushing these prices higher.

Hence, given the forward-looking nature of the markets, the mere hint that the BOJ is finally ready to hop onto this global policy tightening bandwagon could jolt the Japanese Yen.

JPY bulls ready to pounce

Note how the Japanese Yen remains the worst-performing G10 currency versus the US dollar in 2022, despite recovering by some 10% since weakening to almost 152 against the greenback back in October.

Hence, Yen bulls are raring to go, eager to make the most out of every opportunity to extend JPY’s recovery after being bashed for most of this year.

200-day SMA key support for USDJPY

Looking at the charts, Yen bulls have struggled to push USDJPY below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) so far this month. This widely-used technical indicator has acted as a crucial support level.

However, this key support level could be broken by hawkish signals out of the BOJ over the coming week.

Hawkish signal = Governor Kuroda confirms that he and his colleagues are willing to review the central bank’s policy settings in 2023.

A successful break below its 200-day SMA may even see yen bulls sizing up a new cycle low below 133.620.

On the flip side, if the BOJ persists with its dovish messaging, still keeping its policy settings untouched for the foreseeable future, that may prompt USDJPY to retest resistance around the 139 region which has served as a key battle ground between bulls and bears in 2022.

A breach of the psychologically-important 140 mark may invite Yen bears to have USDJPY revisit the previous cycle high around 142.25.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Dec

Federal Reserve just hiked interest rates for the 7th time this year – so why are mortgage rates coming down?

By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a percentage point on Dec. 14, 2022, to a range of 4.25 to 4.5%, the seventh increase this year. So far in 2022, the Fed has lifted its benchmark short-term rate, which influences most other borrowing costs in the economy, by 4.25 percentage points from a low of near zero as recently as March.

But even as the U.S. central bank lifts rates – and plans to keep doing so in 2023 – homebuyers are beginning to notice a pleasant surprise: Mortgage rates have been falling.

What’s going on?

We asked Brian Blank, a finance professor who has researched mortgage rates and bank loans, to explain the paradox of falling mortgage costs at a time of rising base interest rates.

What’s happening with mortgage rates?

After soaring for much of 2022, mortgage rates and other long-term rates are starting to come down.

The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has fallen 0.75 percentage points in the past month or so, after hitting a 20-year high of 7.08% in early November. Rates reached 6.33% on Dec. 8, the lowest level since September. This occurred over the same period as the Fed lifted its benchmark interest rate 2 percentage points.

Another key rate that fell is the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which has declined by a similar amount, to 3.5%.

Why are mortgage rates falling if the Fed is still hiking?

The short and rather boring technical answer is that bond markets anticipated this rate hike many months ago. And as market factors largely dictate the costs of borrowing, the increase was already absorbed into home loan rates.

Mortgage rates, while rising due to the Federal Reserve’s rapid hiking pace, are actually more closely linked to the interest rate on Treasury securities, specifically the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. That security began to anticipate the Fed’s interest rate increases a year ago and rose from less than 1.5% in December 2021 to more than 3.25% by June.

And now, with signs that inflation has already peaked and amid growing concerns of a slowing economy, these longer-term rates are coming down in anticipation of fewer future Fed rate hikes than expected only a short time ago. In fact, mortgage and other long-term rates may keep falling over the coming months – assuming the Fed manages to get inflation under control so it is able to lower its benchmark rate again.

Why do mortgage rates follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond?

Even though 30-year mortgages can be held for three decades, most people sell their house or refinance within a decade, which means the investor who is receiving the mortgage payments is effectively investing in a 10-year bond.

As a result, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rate is normally 1 to 2 percentage points higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond.

However, when the economy has more uncertainty than usual, like earlier this year, this spread can get as large as 3 percentage points. This uncertainty can be the result of a potential economic downturn, the possibility of the Fed raising rates more than expected, inflation, Fed balance sheet changes or all of the above – as happened in 2022.

Why are mortgage rates higher than Treasury yields?

Since the United States Treasury is more likely to pay investors back than almost any individual homeowner, investors charge a higher interest rate due to the additional risk they are taking.

Even though individuals go to banks to borrow, banks often sell those loans to investors, who then receive the money individuals pay back on the loan.

Since individuals default on mortgages more often than the U.S. government defaults on Treasury bonds, investors require a higher return to purchase the rights to receive the payments from those mortgages.

If mortgage rates fall, will the Fed have to raise rates even higher to control inflation?

Falling mortgage rates preceded an increase in the home purchase index, which is a measure of current market conditions to purchase homes. This suggests the housing market may finally start to pick up steam after slowing down all year.

Since the Fed is trying to slow economic activity to bring down inflation, this could cause housing prices to increase again, thus forcing the Fed to raise its target rate more than planned.

However, I believe the effective federal funds rate, which is the market rate directly influenced by the Fed’s target range, is already sufficiently restrictive to slow the housing market and restore more normal economic conditions in 2023. Moreover, the decline in mortgage rates is still quite small – they remain over double what they were a year ago – so the drop isn’t likely to have much of an impact alone.

What the Fed itself thinks about this challenge – and where it projects to take interest rates next year – is what I and many other economists and investors will be monitoring closely after it met for the last time of 2022. It should tell us what to expect in 2023 – so stay tuned.

Article updated to include Fed raising rates.

About the Author:

D. Brian Blank, Assistant Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Real Estate

15 Dec

Murrey Math Lines 15.12.2022 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, the quotes are in the oversold area. The RSI has bounced off the support line. An upwards breakaway of 0/8 (0.9277) is expected, followed by growth to the resistance level of 2/8 (0.9521). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of -1/8 (0.9155). In this case, the quotes may go on falling and reach -2/8 (0.9033).

On M15, growth can be supported by a breakaway of the upper border of VoltyChannel.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, gold quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In the end, a test of 5/8 (1781.25) is expected, followed by a bounce off it and growth to the resistance level of 6/8 (1812.50). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 5/8 (1781.25). In this case, gold quotes may drop to 4/8 (1750.00).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is too far away from the current price, hence, growth will be supported by a bounce off 5/8 (1781.25) on H4.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Dec

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 15.12.2022 (EURUSD, BRENT, AUDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the Tenkan-Sen line. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.0610 is expected, followed by growth to 1.0935. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0395, which will mean further falling to 1.0305.

BRENT

Crude oil is pushing off the lower border of the Cloud. The instrument is going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a flat. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 80.05 is expected, followed by growth to 91.75. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 75.00, which will mean further falling to 70.00. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the bearish channel and securing above 85.05.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has secured above the resistance level. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 0.6795 is expected, followed by growth to 0.7005. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6715, which will mean further falling to 0.6620.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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