InvestMacro

Large Metals Speculators continue to boost Gold bullish bets to 30-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (4,433 contracts) with Copper (3,932 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-5,784 contracts), Platinum (-3,283 contracts) and Palladium (-546 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures advanced once again this week for an eighth straight week and for the tenth time out of the past twelve weeks. The Gold position has now risen from a total of +64,623 contracts on November 1st to a new 30-week high at a total of +157,673 contracts this week.

The Gold futures price closed slightly higher again this week and has now been up for six consecutive weeks. This week’s high was right below the $1,950.00 level and marked the highest Gold prices have reached since April. Gold may be due for a breather with the daily RSI Indicator showing overbought levels but with the US Dollar trending lower, Gold may have a bright outlook in 2023.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	499,927	25	157,673	35	-180,554	63	22,881	37
Silver	134,922	12	25,684	42	-39,461	58	13,777	41
Copper	213,398	52	20,170	52	-26,542	46	6,372	62
Palladium	9,363	20	-3,297	8	3,534	91	-237	27
Platinum	72,613	46	20,261	39	-25,819	61	5,558	42

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Copper (52 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (42 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (33.5 percent)
Silver (42.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.8 percent)
Copper (52.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.2 percent)
Platinum (38.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.6 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.9 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.6 percent)
Silver (3.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (13.5 percent)
Copper (14.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (11.6 percent)
Platinum (-11.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.0 percent)
Palladium (-23.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 157,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 153,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	25.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	61.6	5.0
– Net Position:	157,673	-180,554	22,881
– Gross Longs:	253,311	127,419	47,880
– Gross Shorts:	95,638	307,973	24,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	63.4	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-13.0	25.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 25,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	35.1	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	64.3	7.5
– Net Position:	25,684	-39,461	13,777
– Gross Longs:	55,595	47,359	23,875
– Gross Shorts:	29,911	86,820	10,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	57.9	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-3.5	4.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	35.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	47.4	6.3
– Net Position:	20,170	-26,542	6,372
– Gross Longs:	87,941	74,715	19,913
– Gross Shorts:	67,771	101,257	13,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	46.4	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-15.5	13.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	30.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	66.4	3.6
– Net Position:	20,261	-25,819	5,558
– Gross Longs:	39,279	22,428	8,206
– Gross Shorts:	19,018	48,247	2,648
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	60.9	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	9.2	18.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	62.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	24.5	15.5
– Net Position:	-3,297	3,534	-237
– Gross Longs:	1,787	5,826	1,212
– Gross Shorts:	5,084	2,292	1,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	91.1	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	24.3	-16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

28 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Lean Hogs bets for 4th week to 134-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (9,880 contracts) with Corn (5,496 contracts) and Coffee (4,017 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-20,245 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-16,565 contracts), Soybeans (-13,843 contracts), Lean Hogs (-12,741 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,915 contracts), Wheat (-6,306 contracts), Cocoa (-2,757 contracts) and Sugar (-1,614 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the swift and strong decrease in the Lean Hogs speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Lean Hogs fell this week for a fourth consecutive week (by a total of -41,547 contracts) and for the sixth time in the past nine weeks.

The speculator’s net position has dropped from a total of +44,713 contracts on December 27th to an overall bullish level of just +3,166 contracts this week. This recent weakness in speculator sentiment has now pushed the overall net position standing for Lean Hogs to the lowest level in the past 134 weeks, dating back to June 30th of 2020.

Lean Hogs prices have been under pressure since reaching a recent high in July above the 115.00 price level as the market has responded to ample hogs supply. Since then, the Lean Hog futures price (front-month) has fallen by over 30 percent and closed this week at the lowest level since late in 2021.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,660,450	23	249,799	12	-273,246	88	23,447	38
Gold	499,927	25	157,673	35	-180,554	63	22,881	37
Silver	134,922	12	25,684	42	-39,461	58	13,777	41
Copper	213,398	52	20,170	52	-26,542	46	6,372	62
Palladium	9,363	20	-3,297	8	3,534	91	-237	27
Platinum	72,613	46	20,261	39	-25,819	61	5,558	42
Natural Gas	1,102,760	27	-170,972	24	138,482	78	32,490	57
Brent	153,686	14	-36,800	41	33,917	57	2,883	48
Heating Oil	278,159	27	25,360	80	-48,540	20	23,180	79
Soybeans	667,416	20	155,222	59	-117,945	52	-37,277	8
Corn	1,274,410	11	277,369	65	-205,662	43	-71,707	2
Coffee	231,360	35	-22,728	4	20,167	96	2,561	35
Sugar	924,848	42	185,084	58	-229,339	37	44,255	63
Wheat	350,331	27	-48,320	0	50,423	100	-2,103	99

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92 percent) and Corn (65 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (62 percent), Soybeans (59 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (65.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.8 percent)
Sugar (57.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.1 percent)
Coffee (4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (59.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (29.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (62.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.3 percent)
Cocoa (41.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.2 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.7 percent)

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (13 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (8 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cotton (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-14 percent), Soybean Oil (-11 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-13.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.4 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (9.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (23.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-36.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-27.8 percent)
Cotton (2.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.2 percent)
Cocoa (1.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.6 percent)
Wheat (-7.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 277,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 271,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	43.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	60.0	14.7
– Net Position:	277,369	-205,662	-71,707
– Gross Longs:	388,317	558,456	115,106
– Gross Shorts:	110,948	764,118	186,813
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	42.6	2.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-4.6	-22.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 185,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	43.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	68.6	5.1
– Net Position:	185,084	-229,339	44,255
– Gross Longs:	270,150	404,948	91,086
– Gross Shorts:	85,066	634,287	46,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	37.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	-0.2	10.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	52.9	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	44.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-22,728	20,167	2,561
– Gross Longs:	45,404	122,400	10,598
– Gross Shorts:	68,132	102,233	8,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	95.9	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	11.6	21.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 155,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	46.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	64.3	12.5
– Net Position:	155,222	-117,945	-37,277
– Gross Longs:	206,329	311,307	46,219
– Gross Shorts:	51,107	429,252	83,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	52.5	8.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-11.7	-10.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	50.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	61.6	7.4
– Net Position:	39,250	-44,514	5,264
– Gross Longs:	80,599	203,133	34,963
– Gross Shorts:	41,349	247,647	29,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	72.2	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	15.1	-28.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	32.9	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.5	73.2	7.1
– Net Position:	149,785	-169,008	19,223
– Gross Longs:	168,470	138,088	49,137
– Gross Shorts:	18,685	307,096	29,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	7.8	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-7.7	3.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	30.6	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	50.4	12.2
– Net Position:	66,228	-62,823	-3,405
– Gross Longs:	117,249	96,720	35,368
– Gross Shorts:	51,021	159,543	38,773
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	27.2	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.5	1.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	36.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	37.0	12.5
– Net Position:	3,166	-682	-2,484
– Gross Longs:	66,938	75,927	23,357
– Gross Shorts:	63,772	76,609	25,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	96.9	95.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.8	27.7	47.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	48.5	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	58.0	5.3
– Net Position:	17,833	-19,679	1,846
– Gross Longs:	61,599	100,981	12,918
– Gross Shorts:	43,766	120,660	11,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.2	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-3.4	9.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	47.3	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	57.2	2.9
– Net Position:	24,941	-28,978	4,037
– Gross Longs:	90,986	138,394	12,460
– Gross Shorts:	66,045	167,372	8,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.5	58.8	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.3	6.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	40.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	26.3	10.3
– Net Position:	-48,320	50,423	-2,103
– Gross Longs:	88,787	142,422	33,981
– Gross Shorts:	137,107	91,999	36,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	8.2	4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

27 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 27.01.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has broken through the resistance line. The quotes are now expected to rise above 8/8 (87.50) and later reach the resistance level of +2/8 (90.62). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 7/8 (85.94). In this case, the quotes may drop to 5/8 (82.81).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the uptrend and increases the probability of further growth.

S&P 500

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates an uptrend. A divergence has formed on the RSI, being a signal for a correction to start. As a result, a bounce off 4/8 (4062.5) should be expected, followed by falling of the support level of 2/8 (3906.2). The scenario can be cancelled by an upwards breakaway of the resistance level. In this case, the quotes might keep growing and reach 5/8 (4141.6).

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Jan

Week Ahead: EURUSD to reach cloud 9?

By ForexTime

The world’s most-traded currency pair could reach a fresh 9-month high in the upcoming week, as markets compare the latest policy clues between the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

To be clear, it’ll be a massive week that extends beyond major central bank decisions (the Bank of England is in action too).

We’ll also see the biggest tech earnings, and even an OPEC+ decision.

In other words, major asset classes are set to be rocked by these major economic data releases and events due in the week ahead:

Monday, January 30

NZD: New Zealand December external trade
CNH: Mainland China markets reopen after Lunar New Year
EUR: Eurozone January economic confidence
IMF publishes World Economic Outlook update

Tuesday, January 31

JPY: Japan December unemployment, retail sales, industrial production
AUD: Australia December retail sales
CNH: China December industrial profits, January PMIs
EUR: Eurozone 4Q GDP
USD: US January consumer confidence
Exxon Mobil earnings

Wednesday, February 1

NZD: New Zealand 4Q unemployment
CNH: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone January CPI and manufacturing PMI, December unemployment
GBP: UK January manufacturing PMI
Brent: OPEC+ meeting
USD: Fed rate decision
Meta earnings

Thursday, February 2

EUR: European Central Bank rate decision
GBP: Bank of England rate decision
USD: US weekly initial jobless claims
S&P 500: Earnings from Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon

Friday, February 3

CNH: China January services/composite PMI
USD: US nonfarm payrolls report

Here’s what markets currently expect for next week’s Fed meeting:

Fed will hike by 25 basis points (bps) on February 1st.
Fed will hike again by a further 25 bps sometime after next week’s meeting, but no later than June 2023.
Those two hikes would bring US interest rates from the current 4.5% up to around 5%.
The Fed will then keep its benchmark rate at around that 5% mark for a while, before cutting interest rates later this year.

On the ECB side of the equation:

ECB to hike by 50bps next week – double the expected size of the Fed’s upcoming hike.
The ECB is forecasted to have another 75bps in hikes more to go through mid-year.

In fewer words:
Fed = 50 bps hikes total remaining (including next week’s 25bps hike)
ECB = 125 bps hikes total remaining (including next week’s 50bps hike)

This idea that the ECB has more rate hikes in store relative to the Fed is what’s been propelling EURUSD to its highest levels since April 2022.

However, note that EURUSD’s surge is consolidating just below a key Fibonacci level – the 50% line from its January 2021 through September 2022 descent.

The price action suggests that the next move for EURUSD may well depend greatly on what either the ECB or Fed reveals next week.

Potential scenarios for EURUSD:

EURUSD could be pushed into “cloud 9” if the ECB persists with its hawkish stance, while the Fed starts warming up to the idea of pausing its own rate hikes (or at least markets do not believe any hawkish tones emanating out of the Fed next week).Such an outcome is also likely to invoke further cheer across other asset classes, from stocks to gold, and even crypto.
However, if:
- the Fed triggers a larger-than-expected 50bps hike next week
- presses home the message that US interest rates will be sent past the market-forecasted 5% target this year.
- and markets actually believe the Fed’s hawkish intentions

(or a combo of the above factors)

… that may rapidly unwind some of EURUSD’s recent gains.

Key support/resistance levels for EURUSD:

SUPPORT

1.0770 region: previous cycle low, June 2022 resistance zone
1.07365: mid-December cycle high
1.061 region: 38.2% Fib line and around where 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resides

RESISTANCE

1.09426: 50% Fib line
1.112 – 1.114: March 2022 resistance
1.11848: end-March cycle high

At the time of writing, markets are forecasting a 70% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.07 – 1.105 range over the next one-week, while the implied-volatility is back to its year-to-date high which saw the latest leg up for EURUSD.

Ultimately, this next big move for the world’s most-traded currency is set to be dictated by what either the Fed or the ECB signals to the markets next week.

Make sure you also check back on Monday (January 30th) for our next Trade of the Week (published every Monday), as we then focus on GBPUSD and how it may react to the upcoming policy signals out of the Fed vs. the BOE.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Jan

US GDP is rising, but there are the first signs of a slowing economy. Inflation in Tokyo set a new record

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.10%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.10%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 1.76% yesterday.

According to the US Commerce Department, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.9% in the latest quarter, less than the 3.2% quarter before but more than the market estimate of 2.6%. But a more detailed report shows signs of slowing growth. While consumer spending maintained a solid growth rate, most of the increase in consumption came at the start of the fourth quarter. Retail sales fell sharply in November and December. Business spending on equipment declined last quarter and is likely to remain low due to lower commodity demand. Futures markets are estimating a 25 basis point hike next Wednesday with a 95.8% probability and suggesting that the Fed’s overnight rate will be 4.45%, lower than the 5.1% rate that Fed officials had previously projected.

US durable goods orders jumped by 5.6%, but a more detailed report showed that business investment declined for four months. By some measures, US manufacturers are already in recession territory. They have cut production in response to the slowdown in new orders and may make further cuts if the economy continues to decline. Rising interest rates have been a major source of recent weakness. Higher borrowing costs are discouraging consumers from spending and businesses from investing.

Initial US jobless claims were 186,000, lower than the projected 203,000. The US labor market remains resilient, even though several big tech giants have been cutting jobs in recent days.

Renowned investor and Scion Asset Management hedge fund manager Michael Burry suggests that the current growth in the stock market is a mirage and very difficult times lie ahead. The investor draws parallels from September 2000 to early 2003 (the dot-com bubble era and the aftermath of 9/11). Between September 2001 and April 2002, the S&P 500 Index managed to rise twice. But then a four-month decline followed.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.34%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.74%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.87%, and British FTSEv100 (UK100) was up by 0.21%.

A Reuters poll this week showed that markets expect the ECB to pause rate hikes in the second quarter of 2023 once the deposit rate reaches 3.25%. Although some analysts are confident that the ECB will bring the rate up to 4% by the summer, after which it will take a pause.

The bullish trend in gold continues. Yesterday there was another new seven-month high, right at the 1950 level. Gold has an inverse correlation to US government bond yields and the dollar index. As US yields fall as the Fed nears a potential policy change, this positively affects precious metal prices.

Oil prices rose about 2% on positive US economic data and expectations of higher global demand as China, the biggest oil importer, reopened its economy. OPEC+ will meet as early as February 1, where the cartel is likely to confirm the current levels of oil production, which may trigger further price growth. But an excessive growth of oil prices may cause a new round of inflationary pressure, and this is despite the fact that the interest rates are already high. So rising oil prices right now are not good for the global economy.

Asian markets traded yesterday without a single trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased byv0.12%, and China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was not trading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 2.37%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) lost 1.25%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was not trading yesterday due to Australia Day. On Friday, most Asian markets continued to rise as higher-than-expected economic growth data supported risk appetite.

Tokyo’s core consumer price index increased from 3.9% to 4.3% year-over-year. This is the highest rate of inflation in 41 years. This indicator is considered a leading indicator of inflation nationwide. Rising inflation in the country is expected to eventually end the bank’s ultra-soft stance, but traders are unsure when such a move might occur, leaving the outlook for Japanese stocks clouded with uncertainty.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,060.43 +44.21 (+1.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,949.41 +205.57 (+0.61%)

DAX (DE40) 15,132.85 +51.21 (+0.34%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,761.11 +16.24 (+0.21%)

USD Index 101.82 +0.18 (+0.18%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Tokyo core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Spanish GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:30 (GMT+2);
– US PCE price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Jan

Investors urged to seize markets’ bullish sentiment

By George Prior

A rallying call for investors has been sounded by the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

It comes from Nigel Green of deVere Group as global markets have got off to a confident start to the year.

The MSCI gauge – the global stock market index – has rallied 9% so far this year after slumping nearly 20% in 2022.

He notes: “The re-opening of China, weaker gas prices, and growing signs of a ‘soft landing’ for the U.S. economy as it appears that the Federal Reserve is reducing inflation without creating significant unemployment, are amongst the factors which have improved the outlook for global markets.

“This is causing a bullish sentiment as investors believe that many of 2022’s headwinds are now in the rear-view mirror.”

He continues: “The worry over corporate earnings in the first half of 2023 is a near-term concern, but one that investors appear reasonably happy to look beyond.

“Investors are looking ahead to the second half of the year, and to a global economic recovery underlined by an end to interest rate hikes from the major central banks by mid-summer, and possibly rate cuts at the end of the year as inflation falls sharply on a year-on-year basis.”

Market volatility in recent times has lowered valuations of some high-quality equities. This, says Nigel Green, will now be being used by savvy investors “to create better long-term investment opportunities and generate higher income for investors. They will be currently viewing this backdrop as a buying opportunity to top-up their portfolios.

“Inflation will still be an issue for a while to come, but less so as we move through the year.

“But it is likely that investors will be seeking to increase exposure to growth stocks, especially the currently undervalued ones, as cost of living eases and global growth picks up momentum.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “With a better year already underway way and the market currently low, investors should be positioning portfolios to take advantage of a brighter outlook. Many will be moving fast, so as not to miss the opportunities.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Financial News Stock Market News

26 Jan

How California’s ambitious new climate plan could help speed energy transformation around the world

By Daniel Sperling, University of California, Davis

California is embarking on an audacious new climate plan that aims to eliminate the state’s greenhouse gas footprint by 2045, and in the process, slash emissions far beyond its borders. The blueprint calls for massive transformations in industry, energy and transportation, as well as changes in institutions and human behaviors.

These transformations won’t be easy. Two years of developing the plan have exposed myriad challenges and tensions, including environmental justice, affordability and local rule.

For example, the San Francisco Fire Commission had prohibited batteries with more than 20 kilowatt-hours of power storage in homes, severely limiting the ability to store solar electricity from rooftop solar panels for all those times when the sun isn’t shining. More broadly, local opposition to new transmission lines, large-scale solar and wind facilities, substations for truck charging, and oil refinery conversions to produce renewable diesel will slow the transition.

I had a front row seat while the plan was prepared and vetted as a longtime board member of the California Air Resources Board, the state agency that oversees air pollution and climate control. And my chief contributor to this article, Rajinder Sahota, is deputy executive officer of the board, responsible for preparing the plan and navigating political land mines.

We believe California has a chance of succeeding, and in the process, showing the way for the rest of the world. In fact, most of the needed policies are already in place.

What happens in California has global reach

What California does matters far beyond state lines.

California is close to being the world’s fourth-largest economy and has a history of adopting environmental requirements that are imitated across the United States and the world. California has the most ambitious zero-emission requirements in the world for cars, trucks and buses; the most ambitious low-carbon fuel requirements; one of the largest carbon cap-and-trade programs; and the most aggressive requirements for renewable electricity.

In the U.S., through peculiarities in national air pollution law, other states have replicated many of California’s regulations and programs so they can race ahead of national policies. States can either follow federal vehicle emissions standards or California’s stricter rules. There is no third option. An increasing number of states now follow California.

So, even though California contributes less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, if it sets a high bar, its many technical, institutional and behavioral innovations will likely spread and be transformative.

What’s in the California blueprint

The new Scoping Plan lays out in considerable detail how California intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 48% below 1990 levels by 2030 and then achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

It calls for a 94% reduction in petroleum use between 2022 and 2045 and an 86% reduction in total fossil fuel use. Overall, it would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2045 relative to 1990 levels. The remaining 15% reduction would come from capturing carbon from the air and fossil fuel plants, and sequestering it below ground or in forests, vegetation and soils.

To achieve these goals, the plan calls for a 37-fold increase in on-road zero-emission vehicles, a sixfold increase in electrical appliances in residences, a fourfold increase in installed wind and solar generation capacity, and doubling total electricity generation to run it all. It also calls for ramping up hydrogen power and altering agriculture and forest management to reduce wildfires, sequester carbon dioxide and reduce fertilizer demand.

This is a massive undertaking, and it implies a massive transformation of many industries and activities.

Transportation: California’s No. 1 emitter

Transportation accounts for about half of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions, including upstream oil refinery emissions. This is where the path forward is perhaps most settled.

The state has already adopted regulations requiring almost all new cars, trucks and buses to have zero emissions – new transit buses by 2029 and most truck sales and light-duty vehicle sales by 2035.

In addition, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard requires oil companies to steadily reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. This regulation aims to ensure that the liquid fuels needed for legacy cars and trucks still on the road after 2045 will be low-carbon biofuels.

But regulations can be modified and even rescinded if opposition swells. If battery costs do not resume their downward slide, if electric utilities and others lag in providing charging infrastructure, and if local opposition blocks new charging sites and grid upgrades, the state could be forced to slow its zero-emission vehicle requirements.

The plan also relies on changes in human behavior. For example, it calls for a 25% reduction in vehicle miles traveled in 2030 compared with 2019, which has far dimmer prospects. The only strategies likely to significantly reduce vehicle use are steep charges for road use and parking, a move few politicians or voters in the U.S. would support, and a massive increase in shared-ride automated vehicles, which are not likely to scale up for at least another 10 years. Additional charges for driving and parking raise concerns about affordability for low-income commuters.

Electricity and electrifying buildings

The key to cutting emissions in almost every sector is electricity powered by renewable energy.

Electrifying most everything means not just replacing most of the state’s natural gas power plants, but also expanding total electricity production – in this case doubling total generation and quadrupling renewable generation, in just 22 years.

That amount of expansion and investment is mind-boggling – and it is the single most important change for reaching net zero, since electric vehicles and appliances depend on the availability of renewable electricity to count as zero emissions.

Electrification of buildings is in the early stages in California, with requirements in place for new homes to have rooftop solar, and incentives and regulations adopted to replace natural gas use with heat pumps and electric appliances.

The biggest and most important challenge is accelerating renewable electricity generation – mostly wind and utility-scale solar. The state has laws in place requiring electricity to be 100% zero emissions by 2045 – up from 52% in 2021.

The plan to get there includes offshore wind power, which will require new technology – floating wind turbines. The federal government in December 2022 leased the first Pacific sites for offshore wind farms, with plans to power over 1.5 million homes. However, years of technical and regulatory work are still ahead.

For solar power, the plan focuses on large solar farms, which can scale up faster and at less cost than rooftop solar. The same week the new scoping plan was announced, California’s Public Utility Commission voted to significantly scale back how much homeowners are reimbursed for solar power they send to the grid, a policy known as net metering. The Public Utility Commission argues that because of how electricity rates are set, generous rooftop solar reimbursements have primarily benefited wealthier households while imposing higher electricity bills on others. It believes this new policy will be more equitable and create a more sustainable model.

Industry and the carbon capture challenge

Industry plays a smaller role, and the policies and strategies here are less refined.

The state’s carbon cap-and-trade program, designed to ratchet down total emissions while allowing individual companies some flexibility, will tighten its emissions limits.

But while cap-and-trade has been effective to date, in part by generating billions of dollars for programs and incentives to reduce emissions, its role may change as energy efficiency improves and additional rules and regulations are put in place to replace fossil fuels.

One of the greatest controversies throughout the Scoping Plan process is its reliance on carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS. The controversy is rooted in concern that CCS allows fossil fuel facilities to continue releasing pollution while only capturing the carbon dioxide emissions. These facilities are often in or near disadvantaged communities.

California’s chances of success

Will California make it? The state has a track record of exceeding its goals, but getting to net zero by 2045 requires a sharper downward trajectory than even California has seen before, and there are still many hurdles.

Environmental justice concerns about carbon capture and new industrial facilities, coupled with NIMBYism, could block many needed investments. And the possibility of sluggish economic growth could led to spending cuts and might exacerbate concerns about economic disruption and affordability.

There are also questions about prices and geopolitics. Will the upturn in battery costs in 2022 – due to geopolitical flare-ups, a lag in expanding the supply of critical materials, and the war in Ukraine – turn out to be a hiccup or a trend? Will electric utilities move fast enough in building the infrastructure and grid capacity needed to accommodate the projected growth in zero-emission cars and trucks?

It is encouraging that the state has already created just about all the needed policy infrastructure. Additional tightening of emissions limits and targets will be needed, but the framework and policy mechanisms are largely in place.

Rajinder Sahota, deputy executive officer of the California Air Resources Board, contributed to this article.

About the Author:

Daniel Sperling, Distinguished Blue Planet Prize Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Founding Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

26 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 26.01.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has bounced off the support level. As a result, a downward breakaway of 2/8 (0.9155) is expected, followed by falling to the support level of 1/8 (0.9094). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over 3/8 (0.9216). In this case, the pair may rise to the resistance level of 4/8 (0.9277).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away. This increases the probability of further falling.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has bounced off the support level. Further growth to the resistance level of 8/8 (2000.00) should be expected. The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 6/8 (1937.50). This might entail falling to 5/8 (1906.25).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the uptrend and a high probability of growth.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Jan

In Germany, an economic recovery is expected. Allied countries have agreed to transfer tanks to Ukraine

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.03%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.02%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.18% yesterday.

The US reporting season continues to gain momentum. Tesla (TSLA) had a great fourth quarter thanks to a 37% increase in revenue. Tesla stated that under any scenario, they are prepared for short-term uncertainty but are focused on the long-term potential of autonomy, electrification, and energy solutions. IBM Corporation (IBM) on Wednesday reported its highest annual revenue growth in a decade and beat Wall Street expectations for the fourth quarter. The company also projected year-over-year revenue growth. But despite the good report, the company’s stock fell on the release of the report. Economists attribute this to the fact that they are not confident that the company can deliver such results, given the weak macroeconomic backdrop. Shares of Alphabet (GOOGL) increased losses from the previous day, falling more than -2% after the tech giant cut another 1,800 jobs on Wednesday.

As expected, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%. An accompanying statement said that if economic developments are broadly in line with MPR’s forecast, the Board of Governors expects to keep the discount rate at its current level. The Bank of Canada may be the first bank among major economies to end its tightening cycle.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.08% yesterday, French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.09%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.16%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) was 0.16% lower.

The German government said on Wednesday that it expects economic growth this year, not a recession, as Europe’s largest economy has successfully weathered the energy crisis and supported consumers and businesses hurt by higher energy prices. The outlook for 2023 improved to 0.2% growth from a 0.4% contraction expected in October, when Germany feared it would run out of natural gas used to power factories, generate electricity, and heat homes this winter.

Recession risks in the UK are rising because of record shortages and falling production. Factories are cutting production at a record pace, business activity is falling, and the labor market is also starting to signal trouble. Traders are betting that the Bank of England will reverse course and cut its key interest rate later this year to support the weakening economy. But before the rate cut, the central bank is expected to make two more rate hikes of 0.25-0.5%.

Yesterday, Germany approved the supply of Leopard tanks to Ukraine. At the same time, the US also indicated that it would transfer 31 Abrams tanks. Following this news, the Russian embassy issued a tweet indicating that Germany’s decision to approve the delivery of Leopard tanks to Ukraine is extremely dangerous and takes the conflict to a new level. The conflict is expected to escalate in the coming weeks.

Volatility in the oil market has declined because of the holiday week in China. But optimism about the surge in demand from China remains, so with the current level of production by OPEC countries, analysts see further growth in oil quotes. The only constraint to growth is the increase in strategic crude stocks for the 4th week in a row.

Asian markets also traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.35%, and China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade and will not trade until the end of the week due to holidays. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) also did not trade, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreased by 1.25%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down by 0.30%.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,016.22 −0.73 (−0.018%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,743.84 +9.88 (+0.029%)

DAX (DE40) 15,081.64 −11.47 (−0.076%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,744.87 −12.49 (−0.16%)

USD Index 101.64 −0.28 (−0.27%)

Important events for today:

– US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Jan

SP500m close to forming “golden cross”. What’s next?

By ForexTime

A golden cross is when the asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above its 200-day SMA.

Such an event indicates that this asset’s prices have been climbing of late, enough to be higher than its longer-term average.

At the time of writing, the gap between those two widely-followed technical indicators now stand at less than 4 points on the SP500m.

When it happens, the “golden cross” tends to send a “bullish” signal to traders, suggesting there could be more gains in store.

NOTE: The S&P 500 index is a benchmark which measures the overall performance of US stock markets.

How has SP500m performed after forming a “golden cross”?

Here’s how the SP500m has fared following its past three “golden crosses”:

July 2020: S&P 500 climbed by a further 50%, culminating in its current record high registered over a year ago, in early January 2022.
End-March 2019: S&P 500 climbed by another 20% as it came tantalisingly close to the 3400 mark, before the steep dropoff in February 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic gripped global markets.
April 2016: S&P 500 advanced by another 40% until its then-peak in September 2018

Upcoming events that could rock the SP500m:

1) Federal Reserve decision: Feb 1

The world’s most important central bank is back in action again next week.

On February 1st, the Fed is due to announce how much higher it will send US interest rates.

At the time of writing, market forecasts are based on the following:

Fed will hike by 25 basis points (bps) on Feb 2nd.
Fed will hike again by a further 25 bps sometime after next week’s meeting, but no later than June 2023.
That would bring US interest rates from the current 4.5% up to around 5%.
The Fed will then keep its benchmark rate at around that 5% mark for a while, before cutting interest rates later this year.

Note that, generally, many asset classes such as stocks, gold, and even cryptos do not enjoy US interest rates moving higher.

Hence, if the Fed signals its intentions to move US interest rates even higher past the market-forecasted 5%, that could drag the SP500m lower.

However, if the Fed signals that it’s indeed ready to pause its rate hikes, that could translate into more gains for the SP500m.

2) Big Tech Earnings: Feb 2nd

Apple, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), and Amazon are all due to report their respective earnings from Q4 2022.

What are “earnings” and why does it matter?

These quarterly earnings announcements are when public-listed companies reveal just how good a job they did at earning profits over the prior quarter.
Markets tend to “reward” the companies whose earnings either came in better than expected, or are confident about their ability to keep earning higher profits in the near future.
The reward = traders and investors buy up these stocks and send their prices higher.
However, if the company’s financial performance disappointed markets, or if the company’s management are concerned about tougher times ahead for the business, that could prompt markets to sell the stock and send its share price lower.

Why are earnings out of Apple, Alphabet, Amazon so important for the S&P 500?

Note that these stocks are some of the biggest in the world.

Combined, all three stocks have a market cap of almost 4.5 Trillion (with a “T”) US dollars. That accounts for almost 13% of the S&P 500’s total market cap of about US$35 trillion (as of market close on January 25th).

Hence, given their enormous size, how markets react to the earnings out of these 3 tech titans should have a major impact on how the S&P 500 performs as a whole.

Note that all 3 will report their respective earnings after US markets close a week from today – Thursday, February 2nd.

Hence, expect to see a major reaction in the S&P 500 when the US stock market reopens on February 3rd – the day following the earnings release by Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon.

What’s next after golden cross?

If such a bullish technical event does happen for the SP500m, equity bulls (those hoping stocks will move higher) will be looking to next conquer the following resistance levels:

4060: downward upper trendline that began since January 2022 record high.
4105.6: early December cycle high
4144.2: December 13th intraday peak

A closing price above the 4144.2 intraday peak would signal a bullish breakout of the year-long downtrend.

Such price action may well entice even more stock bulls back to the fore.

However, if market sentiment turns sour that could drag the S&P 500 back below the psychologically-important 4,000 mark.

From a fundamental perspective, this could be due to any of the following:

disappointing US earnings
a still-hawkish Fed
growing fears of a US recession
other risk-off events

If so, then the following support levels will start to likely tempting to equity bears (those who believe that stock prices will fall):

3947: 200-day SMA
Low-3900s: cycle high from late-Oct/early-Nov
3885.5: previous cycle low

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.