13 Feb

Silver fell by more than 10%. The Mexican peso reached its highest level since mid-2024

By JustMarkets 

On Thursday, the US stock market closed lower. The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.34%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped by 1.57%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed sharply lower by 2.03%. Early attempts at a rally quickly fizzled out amid ongoing pressure in the technology sector. Investors have become more skeptical regarding the scale and return on investment (ROI) of artificial intelligence infrastructure, triggering a sell-off in shares of major tech companies and software developers. Banks also faced pressure amid discussions regarding interest rates on credit products. The strong employment report released earlier in the week continued to weigh on expectations for an early Fed pivot, supporting bond yields and intensifying pressure on growth stocks. Meanwhile, defensive companies appeared more resilient than the broader market. Investors are now focused on upcoming inflation data, which may set the further direction for index dynamics.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened beyond 17.15 per dollar, reaching its highest level since mid-2024, driven by declining US yields and capital inflows into emerging market assets. Even after recent cuts, the Banxico rate remains near 7%, providing one of the highest real yields and supporting demand for peso-denominated bonds, while the regulator maintains a cautious tone regarding further easing.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped toward $66,000, surrendering most of its recent gains amid general pressure on the digital assets market. Sentiment soured following warnings from Standard Chartered about potential further declines and weak earnings from Coinbase, which recorded a quarterly loss of $667 million alongside a revenue drop of more than 20%. Since its October peak above $126,000, Bitcoin has lost over 45%, and recovery attempts remain fragile, indicating a slump in speculative demand. Analysts warn that consolidating below the $60,000-$58,000 zone could intensify the sell-off, with a potential move toward levels around $40,000.

European equity markets mostly declined yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) edged down by 0.01%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.33%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.82%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.67%. European stocks ended Thursday lower, tracking the sell-off in North American markets fueled by concerns over AI investment returns and the prospect of the Fed maintaining a restrictive policy.

Silver (XAG) collapsed by nearly 10% to below $76 per ounce, continuing a sharp reversal amid broad liquidation of positions across financial markets. Investors sold off precious metals to free up liquidity; the decline occurred even as US Treasury yields fell, suggesting market stress and position closures rather than a reassessment of rate expectations. The pressure also affected gold and copper, amplifying the general decline in the commodities segment.

Natural gas (XNG) prices in the US rose toward $3.23 per MMBtu, supported by active LNG exports and a significant reduction in inventories. For the week ending February 6, 249 billion cubic feet (bcf) were withdrawn from storage, following a record 360 bcf the previous week – substantially higher than both last year’s level and the five-year average. Deliveries to LNG export terminals remain near record highs. However, a prognosed warming through the end of February could reduce heating demand and limit the potential for further price increases.

Asian markets declined on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.02%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.86%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.32%.

A quarterly survey by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) showed an increase in inflation projections for Q1 2026. Businesses expect inflation at 2.37% over a two-year horizon (up from 2.28% previously), while one-year expectations rose to 2.59% – a seven-quarter high. At the same time, respondents await the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to remain unchanged at 2.25% by the end of March 2026. Previously, the regulator cut the rate by 25 bps to 2.25% in November 2025.
The Malaysian economy grew by 6.3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, exceeding the initial estimate of 5.7% and accelerating from 5.4% in the third quarter. This marks the highest growth rate since Q4 2022, indicating a steady recovery in domestic demand and the external sector toward the end of the year. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased by 0.8% following a stronger 2.7% growth in the previous quarter, suggesting some loss of momentum. For the full year 2025, the country’s economy expanded by 5.2%, maintaining a robust growth pace despite regional and global volatility.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,832.76 −108.71 (−1.57%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,451.98 −669.42 (−1.34%)

DAX (DE40) 24,852.69 −3.46 (−0.014%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,402.44 −69.67 (−0.67%)

USD Index 96.92 +0.08% (+0.08%)

News feed for: 2026.02.13

  • Switzerland Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (HIGH)
  • Eurozone Employment Change (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2). – USD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
12 Feb

Strong employment data reduced expectations of imminent Fed easing

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock market closed with a decline. The Dow Jones Index (US30) lost 0.13%, though it hit a new all-time high at the session opening. The S&P 500 (US500) edged down by 0.01%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.16% lower. Strong employment data (NFP growth of 130k and a decrease in unemployment) confirmed the resilience of the labor market and lowered expectations for an early easing of Fed policy. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 130k due to private sector support, more than double the expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell.

Stock markets in Europe mostly declined yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) dropped by 0.53%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.18%, and the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell 0.43%. Conversely, the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.14% higher. European indices ended Wednesday without a clear trend amid mixed corporate earnings reports. Siemens Energy surged 8.5% due to a nearly threefold increase in profit, and Ferrari rose by more than 4%.
Platinum prices (XPT) are holding just above $2,100 per ounce, remaining under pressure near annual lows. Weak demand for autocatalysts and rising US yields are offsetting the impact of mining restrictions in South Africa, while existing inventories and recycling mitigate deficit risks. Additional pressure comes from strong US labor market statistics and expectations of delayed Fed rate cuts, which support the dollar and reduce investment interest in precious metals.

WTI prices rose more than 1% to above $65 per barrel, approaching highs not seen since September amid intensifying tensions surrounding Iran. The market is reacting to reports of a possible tightening of the US stance, which could jeopardize oil supplies if negotiations fail. However, gains were limited by EIA data showing US crude inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels – the highest jump in a year. Investors are also awaiting reports from OPEC and the IEA, where signals of a possible supply surplus this year are expected.

Asian markets rose confidently on Wednesday. While Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) did not trade, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.31%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.66%.

On Thursday, the offshore yuan (CNH) strengthened beyond 6.89 per dollar, extending its winning streak to a sixth session and hitting its highest level since May 2023. The currency is supported by statements from Xi Jinping regarding the ambition to elevate the yuan’s global status as a reserve currency. Since the beginning of last year, the dollar has weakened against the yuan by approximately 6%. However, growth is limited by the People’s Bank of China’s “moderately dovish” stance and weak inflation data: in January, CPI slowed to 0.2%, and producer price deflation narrowed to 1.4% – a one-and-a-half-year low.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose above $0.71, reaching a three-year high following hawkish signals from the RBA. Governor Michele Bullock stated a readiness for further rate hikes if inflation remains persistent, emphasizing that figures “starting with a three” are unacceptable. Inflation expectations rose to 5% in February, strengthening hawkish sentiment. The market is now pricing in the probability of a rate hike in May.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,941.47 −0.34 (−0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 50,121.40 −66.74 (−0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 24,856.15 −131.70 (−0.53%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,472.11 +118.27 (+1.14%)

USD Index 96.92 +0.12% (+0.13%)

News feed for: 2026.02.12

  • Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
  • UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
12 Feb

GBP/USD Regains Ground After US Data and Finds an Equilibrium

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD was trading at 1.3632 on Thursday. Sterling found an equilibrium point after volatility triggered by a stronger dollar following US labour market data.

The number of people employed in January increased by 130 thousand, marking the largest rise in more than a year. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%. Against this backdrop, investors have revised expectations for the Fed rate path. The market now fully prices in the first rate cut for July rather than June, and the probability of a move in March is estimated at less than 5%.

Partial support for the pound came from a decline in domestic political uncertainty. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer received the backing of key cabinet members and Labour Party representatives after the resignation of Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney amid the scandal surrounding Lord Peter Mandelson.

At the same time, market participants still expect further easing from the Bank of England. The regulator kept the rate at 3.75% but delivered softer guidance. It indicated that inflation could return to the 2% target from April.

Technical Analysis

The H4 chart for GBP/USD shows that after a brief rise to 1.3850, the pair entered a correction. A downward phase has formed, characterised by lower highs and lower lows. The price is now testing the 1.3580–1.3600 support zone. The Bollinger Bands are pointing downward, and volatility remains elevated. As long as the pair remains below 1.3710–1.3730, downside pressure is likely to persist.

On the lower H1 timeframe, a local recovery from 1.3580 is visible, but the structure remains neutral to bearish. The price is trading within the 1.3580–1.3650 range. The Bollinger Bands’ midline acts as short-term resistance. A sustained move above 1.3660 would open the way towards 1.3700. A move back below 1.3600 would increase the risk of a retest of recent lows.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD has stabilised following a sharp repricing of Fed expectations triggered by robust US jobs data. The pair found technical equilibrium near key support, with political relief at home providing some offsetting support for sterling. However, the broader technical structure remains corrective and neutral-to-bearish, with resistance capping recovery attempts. The near-term direction hinges on two factors: whether the 1.3580–1.3600 support zone holds, and any further divergence in tone between a patient Fed and an increasingly dovish Bank of England. Until GBP/USD reclaims 1.3660–1.3700, downside risks remain elevated.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
12 Feb

The rise of ‘Merzoni’: How an alliance between Germany’s and Italy’s leaders is reshaping Europe

By Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager, Colorado State University 

“Merzoni” isn’t a neologism that easily trips off the tongue, and it hasn’t fully taken hold in the world of European politics.

Yet, for months, a pragmatic alliance between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been building.

And despite the politicians being, in many ways, unlikely partners, the union has quietly been redefining Europe’s power balance. In the latest display of this dynamic, a joint-policy paper drawn up by Merz and Meloni is set to be delivered to European Union partners at an informal summit on Feb. 12, 2026, urging reforms to improve the bloc’s competitiveness.

As a scholar of European politics, history and culture, I see the union as being born of necessity but nonetheless serving the interests of both parties – and possibly those of the European Union, too.

Moving on from ‘Merkron’

Post-war European politics has seen the center of its gravity move before, but it has largely revolved around shifts to and from France or Germany, the bloc’s current two largest economies. The U.K.’s ability to dominate EU politics was always stymied by its lateness to the “European project” and ambivalence at home. And it was ended outright by a referendum in 2016 that saw the U.K.’s exit from the union.

For nearly a decade after Britain’s exit, Europe revolved around the axis of Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron, an alliance given the nickname “Merkron”: Merkel’s clumsy charm and cautious pragmatism paired with Macron’s charisma and sweeping European idealism. Their dual-stewardship helped steer the EU through Brexit, Donald Trump’s first presidency and the pandemic.

But times have changed.

Merkel is gone. She stepped down as German chancellor in December 2021. Macron, meanwhile, has struggled politically at home and increasingly resembles what diplomats and journalists describe as a European “Cassandra”: right in his warnings about global instability, yet less able to mobilize support domestically or across the continent to confront the issues.

The end of the “Merkron” era coincided with myriad crises confronting Europe, including Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, current U.S. unpredictability, growing climate pressures, never-stopping migration tensions and the collapse of arms-control regimes.

The comforting post-Cold War assumption that peace in Europe was permanent has vanished.

An unlikely partnership

Into this vacuum stepped Merz and Meloni. At first glance, the pairing looks odd.

Merz is a conservative Atlanticist and unapologetic economic liberal. His message, and the title of his 2008 book, “Dare More Capitalism,” signals a move toward an assertive pro-market agenda after years of cautious centrism under Merkel. Merz insists Germany must rebuild military capacity – a departure from decades of both German domestic and EU-wide reticence toward such a move.

Meloni, meanwhile, rose to power from Italy’s nationalist right. The lineage of her home party, Fratelli d’Italia, or Brothers of Italy, traces back to the rump of Mussolini’s fascists. Yet in office, she has proved politically agile, repositioning herself as a responsible and quite successful European actor. Meloni as prime minister has maintained support for Ukraine and cooperation with the European Union – shrugging off concerns over both areas prior to her coming to power. She has equally skillfully cultivated strong ties with Washington – including Trump’s political camp, and overall has demonstrated successful strategic chameleonism.

Critics call her opportunistic; admirers call her pragmatic. Either way, Meloni has mastered political shape-shifting, becoming a bridge between nationalist and mainstream Europe.

What unites Merz and Meloni is less ideology than necessity.

Germany remains Europe’s economic engine but needs partners to push Europe toward greater defense capacity and economic competitiveness. Italy is seeking greater influence and credibility at Europe’s core.

Both governments now speak the language of strategic autonomy: Europe must be able to defend itself and protect its interests even if the U.S. becomes unreliable. As the joint-paper reportedly being presented to other EU partners puts it: “Continuing on the current path is not an option. Europe must act now.”

Europe unites against a frenemy

Ironically, Europe’s unity has often emerged in response to crisis.

Brexit strengthened pro-EU sentiment on the mainland. Similarly, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine revived NATO and EU cooperation.

Now, Trump – with his flirtation with abandoning NATO commitments, threatening tariffs and questioning of territorial arrangements in places like Greenland – has delivered a shock to European political consciousness.

Recent surveys show overwhelming European support for stronger EU defense cooperation and greater unity against global threats.

For leaders like Merz and Meloni, this creates political space for policies that would have seemed unthinkable, or certainly more difficult, a decade ago, such as military buildups, defense integration, industrial protection and tougher migration policies.

Defense and militarization

The most dramatic change is, arguably, happening in Germany. For decades, Berlin avoided military leadership, haunted by its history and sheltered under U.S. security guarantees. That era is ending. German officials increasingly speak about rearmament, European defense readiness and long-term strategic competition.

The timing could not be more urgent. Merz, framing Moscow’s ongoing aggression as a direct assault on European security and unity, stated in September 2025 that “we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either.”

The new German-Italian action plan explicitly strengthens cooperation on defense, cybersecurity and strategic industries. Both governments stress NATO loyalty while simultaneously pushing for stronger European military capacity.

The idea of a future European defense force, once dismissed as fantasy, now circulates seriously in policy circles. Rome is reportedly planning a major procurement deal with German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall worth up to US$24 billion (20 billion euros). Including hundreds of armored vehicles and new-generation tanks, it would represent one of Europe’s largest joint defense projects.

The move reflects a shared push by Berlin and Rome to strengthen Europe’s military capacity while anchoring rearmament in European industrial partnerships.

What’s in it for Meloni and Merz?

For Meloni, partnership with Berlin delivers legitimacy. Italy has traditionally oscillated between European leadership and peripheral frustration. By aligning with Germany, Rome reenters Europe’s decision-making core.

At the same time, Meloni can present herself as both nationalist at home and indispensable to Europe. Her political positions allow her to maintain channels with Washington while remaining inside EU consensus – a balancing act few European leaders can manage.

Germany, meanwhile, gains political flexibility and a partner more aligned with big-picture EU politics.

Macron’s ambitious federalist vision has at times alienated more cautious partners in the bloc. Italy offers a pragmatic counterweight for Merz, focused on competitiveness, migration control and industrial policy rather than a grand European redesign.

Macron isn’t being entirely squeezed out. France still leads on nuclear deterrence and many diplomatic initiatives. Yet political momentum is shifting and now lies with governments willing to prioritize economic competitiveness and security over institutional reform.

Will it work?

The Merzoni partnership faces major tests.

Italy’s economy remains fragile, and Germany’s export model struggles amid global economic shifts. Far-right and populist movements still challenge EU cohesion. And defense integration remains politically sensitive across member nations.

Yet necessity often drives European integration. And as crises accumulate, cooperation becomes less optional.

The real question is whether Europe can move from reactive crisis management to having a proactive geopolitical strategy. For now, the unlikely German-Italian partnership suggests Europe’s political map is being redrawn – not through grand federal visions but through pragmatic alliances shaped by fear, necessity and opportunity.The Conversation

About the Author:

Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager, Associate Professor of Critical Cultural & International Studies, Colorado State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
11 Feb

Has globalization lessened the importance of physical distance? For economic shocks, new research suggests ‘yes’

By Josh Ederington, Miami University and Jenny Minier, Miami University 

National economies are increasingly moving in sync and responding to the same booms and busts as a result of near-instantaneous communications and interdependent global supply chains. This is a sharp change from much of the 21st century, when economies were primarily affected by economic shocks in neighboring countries.

That’s what we found in a paper published in the journal Economic Letters, in which we calculated measures of economic correlation using data on gross domestic product for 70 countries over the past 60 years. Along with fellow economic scholars Yoonseon Han and David Lindequist, we found that physical distance was indeed less important than it used to be, particularly with regard to how interconnected countries are to one another.

Specifically, we measured the extent to which countries have found their business cycles — the traditional boom-bust intervals of economic performance — in sync. For example, when there is a positive shock to production in Germany, to what extent does this affect incomes in the United States?

We were interested in whether the relationship between distance and economic correlation has changed over time.

What we found was that from 1960-1999, business cycles were strongly localized. That is, a country’s economy was much more likely to be impacted by shocks to nearby countries than by shocks in faraway countries. For example, the U.S. was more affected by economic conditions in Canada or Mexico than it was to economic conditions in the United Kingdom or South Korea.

This finding is not surprising and fits well with a long economic literature showing that countries are more likely to trade with nearby countries and that the volume of trade between two countries is a significant predictor of how synchronized their business cycles are.

However, we went on to find that this relationship between physical distance and economic correlation started to break down after 2000. Specifically, for the past 20 years, there has been no statistically significant relationship between the geographic distance between two countries and the extent to which incomes in the two countries move together — what economists refer to as their economic covariance.

Why it matters

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, a number of economists, including Frances Cairncross and Thomas Friedman, popularized the idea that new technologies like the internet and containerization had led to the death of distance, in which our new lives would be increasingly globalized. They imagined a future in which these new technologies not only impacted how goods were produced — like global supply chains — but also how we work and live.

Such theories were met with some skepticism by trade researchers at the time, and not all of the predictions have come true. For example, the link between distance and trade flows has proved stubbornly persistent. Even today, the top-two trading partners of the U.S. remain Canada and Mexico. And one only has to look at housing prices in major urban centers in the U.S. to see that physical location remains highly valued to most people.

However, our research suggests that at least some of the popular predictions about the globalized economy might be coming true. For instance, the world economy appears to have made countries increasingly susceptible to global, as opposed to localized, shocks.

This was made devastatingly clear to millions of people during the pandemic, when supply chain bottlenecks reverberated across the globe, subsequently generating a worldwide rise in prices. As a result, U.S. economic and trade policy discussions have been increasingly focused on potential vulnerabilities to foreign shocks. Indeed, a new buzzword during the Biden administration was “supply chain resiliance.”

What still isn’t known

Our work provides evidence that business cycles and economic shocks have become more globalized over the past couple of decades. Many of the main economic events from 1960-2000 – like the 1980s savings and loan crisis or the 1997 Asian currency crisis – had primarily localized effects. But more recently, the principal economic events of the past two decades — like the 2008 financial crisis — have had far more global implications.

What we don’t know is whether this pattern will continue, resulting in a new era in which most of the world’s economies move in tandem. Or will a new turn toward economic nationalism lead to a reversal in which economies – and economic shocks – become more localized once again?

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.The Conversation

About the Author:

Josh Ederington, Professor of Economics, Miami University and Jenny Minier, Julian Lange Professor of Economics, Miami University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
11 Feb

FXTM’s RUS2000 set for fresh records?

By ForexTime 

  • RUS2000 up roughly 8% YTD, less than 1% away from records
  • Small caps leaving large caps in the dust thus far in 2026
  • US NFP + CPI could trigger market volatility
  • Key levels at 2735, 2700 and 2650

FXTM’s RUS2000 is trading 1% from its all-time high!

AND

One of the best-performing US indices in the FXTM universe….

  • US400: ↑ 8.5% YTD
  • RUS2000: ↑ 8% YTD
  • US30: ↑ 4.4% YTD
  • US500: ↑ 1.5% YTD
  • NA100: ↓ 0.5% YTD

WHY?

  • Small caps have hit the new year sprinting, outpacing their large-cap counterparts thanks to compelling valuations and growth prospects.
  • Unlike the US500/NAS100 which has a greater exposure to China risk, the RUS2000/US400 is heavily focused on the US economy.
  • Small caps are drawing strength from the rollout of significant tax refunds, manufacturing subsidies and high sensitivity to US interest rates.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RUS2000 THIS WEEK?

·      January NFP report – Wednesday 11th February

Markets expect the US economy to have created 68,000 jobs in January with the unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%.

The RUS2000 is forecasted to move ↑ 0.9% or ↓ 1.3% in a 6-hour window after the January NFP report.

·      US CPI report – Friday 13thh February

This report will be a key test of whether inflation is continuing to cool at a gradual pace.

The RUS2000 is forecasted to move ↑ 1.2% or ↓ 1.3% in a 6-hour window after the CPI report.

Traders are currently pricing at a 23% chance of a Fed cut by March with this jumping to 47% by April.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

BULLISH: A solid breakout and daily close above 2700 may open a path toward the all-time high at 2735 and 2750.

BEARISH: Weakness below 2700 could trigger a selloff toward 2650 and the 50-day SMA at 2595.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
11 Feb

Chinese stocks show growth ahead of the holiday week

By JustMarkets 

On Tuesday, trading on the US stock market closed with mixed performance. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.10%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.33%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.59%. The market was pressured by weak US retail sales data for December (0% against projections of +0.4%), which intensified concerns regarding consumer demand and supported expectations of more than two Fed rate cuts this year. Bond yields decreased across the curve. A positive outlier was Spotify, whose shares soared 14.8% due to strong earnings and audience growth.

Stock markets in Europe mostly declined yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.11%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.06%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.40%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.31%. Investors remained cautious ahead of key US employment and inflation data, which may clarify the Fed’s next steps. The focus also remained on the corporate earnings season.

On Wednesday, silver (XAG) rose nearly 2% to $82 per ounce, recovering previous session losses amid weak US data and declining confidence in American assets. Retail sales in December unexpectedly slowed, fueling fears for consumer demand. Attention is now focused on the jobs report; weak data could further support precious metals. Markets are already pricing in about 60 bps of Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Additional demand for safe-haven assets is linked to outflows from dollar instruments amid political uncertainty in the US. However, market participants remain cautious due to recent high volatility and sharp fluctuations in metal prices.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose to $3.17 per MMBtu, snapping a two-day decline amid near-record LNG exports. Deliveries to the eight largest terminals in February reached 18.5 billion cubic feet per day, limiting domestic supply. Previously, Arctic cold led to a record reduction in inventories, which are currently about 1% below normal.

Asian markets grew confidently on Tuesday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped 2.28%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.02%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.58%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.03%.

Chinese stocks ended the session higher amid expectations of high consumer demand during the Lunar New Year period. Additional optimism was sparked by reports of a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in April. On Wednesday, the offshore yuan held around 6.91 per dollar, near highs since April 2023, amid steady daily fixing by the PBoC. The Central Bank set the midpoint rate at 6.9438, signaling a desire for stable and moderate currency appreciation despite softer policy rhetoric. However, the yuan’s rise is capped by the confirmation of a “moderately easy” monetary policy stance. January inflation slowed to 0.2% YoY from 0.8%, while producer price deflation narrowed to 1.4% thanks to stabilizing commodity prices and measures to limit excessive competition.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated its readiness for further measures to curb inflation, which, according to RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, remains “too high.” The regulator intends to “do whatever is necessary” to return inflation to the 2-3% target range. Last week, the RBA raised the rate by 25 bps, reversing a previous cut after inflation again exceeded projections. Both headline and core inflation remain above the target, and a return to the target level is not expected until mid-2027.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,941.81 −23.01 (−0.33%)

Dow Jones (US30) 50,188.14 +52.27 (+0.10%)

DAX (DE40) 24,987.85 −27.02 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,353.84 −32.39 (−0.31%)

USD Index 96.85 +0.04% (+0.04%)

News feed for: 2026.02.11

  • China Inflation Rate (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • US Non Farm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
  • US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
11 Feb

Gold Climbs to a Two-Week High: Markets Await a Softer Fed Policy

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold on Wednesday held above 5045 USD per ounce and traded near a two-week high. The quotes are supported by expectations of a softer Fed policy.

Growth intensified after weak US economic data. Retail sales came in below forecasts in December, pointing to a slowdown in consumer activity and fuelling fears of a cooling economy.

The market is now pricing in a higher probability of three Fed rate cuts this year than two weeks ago.

Investors are now awaiting the publication of US data on employment and inflation, which may provide additional signals about the state of the economy and the regulator’s next steps.

Demand from central banks remains robust. The People’s Bank of China increased gold reserves in January

Technical Analysis

The H4 XAU/USD chart shows that after a sharp collapse in early February from the 5550–5600 area to lows around 4400, gold has entered a recovery phase. The price has stabilised around 5000–5050 and is trading near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. The bands are gradually narrowing, indicating declining volatility and the formation of consolidation following strong price swings.

On the H1 chart, the structure is more neutral. Quotes are moving within a narrow 5000–5080 range. The upper boundary acts as local resistance, while the lower acts as support. The market looks balanced, with attempts at a steady advance, but no pronounced momentum.

Conclusion

In summary, gold’s rally to a two-week high primarily reflects shifting market expectations towards a more dovish Fed, amplified by recent soft US retail data. While technical indicators show stabilisation and consolidation within a recovery phase, price action remains range-bound and lacks decisive momentum. The near-term trajectory will be critically dependent on incoming US inflation and employment data, which will either validate the current dovish repricing or challenge it. Sustained central bank buying and unresolved geopolitical tensions provide a structural floor, but for a breakout above the current consolidation, gold requires a clear catalyst from upcoming macroeconomic releases.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
10 Feb

Why Trump’s new pick for Fed chair hit gold and silver markets – for good reasons

By Henry Maher, University of Sydney 

After months of speculation, US President Donald Trump confirmed he will be nominating Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve. The appointment has been closely watched in the context of Trump’s ongoing conflict with the Fed and its current chairman Jerome Powell.

The immediate reaction to the announcement was a significant crash in gold and silver markets. After months of record highs and stretched valuations, spot prices for gold and silver dropped 9% and 28% respectively after the announcement. The US stock market also fell, with major indexes all reporting modest losses.

However, in the context of concerns over Trump’s interference with the Fed, the market crash can ironically be understood as an early vote of confidence in Warsh’s independence and suitability for the role.

Understanding why requires the context of Trump’s ongoing conflict with the Federal Reserve, and the importance of central bank independence to our current global financial system.

Trump’s war with the Fed

The last year has seen Trump in an unprecedented conflict with the Federal Reserve.

Trump appointed current Chairman Jerome Powell back in 2017. However, the relationship quickly soured when Powell did not cut interest rates as quickly as Trump wanted. In characteristically colourful language, Trump has since called Powell a “clown” with “some real mental problems”, adding “I’d love to fire his ass”.

The war of words descended into legal threats. Trump’s Justice Department announced an investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged fraud in historical mortgage documents. Then last month, in a shocking escalation the Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into Powell relating to overspending in renovations of the Federal Reserve offices.

Both sets of allegations are widely viewed as baseless. However, Trump has tried to use the investigation as grounds to fire Cook. The case is currently before the Supreme Court.

Powell has hit back strongly at Trump, saying the legal threats were

a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.

Powell received support from 14 international central bank chiefs, who noted “the independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability”.

Historically, presidential interference with the Fed was a major cause of the stagflation crisis in the 1970s. More recently, both Argentina and Turkey have experienced significant financial crises caused by interference with central bank independence.

Who is Kevin Warsh?

Kevin Warsh is a former banker and Federal Reserve governor, who previously served as economic advisor to both President George W Bush and President Trump.

Originally Trump seemed likely to favour the current director of Trump’s National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, for the job. However, Hassett was widely viewed as being too influenced by Trump, intensifying fears about Fed independence.

Warsh appears more independent and brings a reputation as an inflation “hawk”.

What is an inflation hawk?

The Federal Reserve is responsible for setting US interest rates. Put simply, lower interest rates can increase economic growth and employment, but risk creating inflation. Higher interest rates can control inflation, but at the cost of higher unemployment and lower growth.

Getting the balance right is the central role of the Federal Reserve. Central bank independence is essential to ensure this delicate task is guided by the best evidence and long-term needs of the economy, rather than the short-term political goals.

An inflation “hawk” refers to a central banker who prioritises fighting inflation, compared to a “dove” who prioritises growth and jobs.

From Warsh’s previous time at the Federal Reserve, he established a strong reputation as an inflation hawk. Even in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, Warsh was more worried about inflation than jobs.

Given Trump’s past conflict with Powell around cutting interest rates, Warsh might seem a curious choice of candidate.

More recently though, Warsh has moderated his views, echoing Trump’s criticism of the Fed and demands for lower interest rates. Whether this support will continue, or if his hawkish tendencies return leading to future conflict with Trump, remains to be seen.

The market reaction

The crash in gold and silver, and decline in stock markets, suggests investors view interest rate cuts as less likely under Warsh than alternative candidates.

Gold and silver prices typically rise in response to instability or fears of inflation.

The previous record highs were driven by many factors, including global instability, concerns over Fed independence, and a speculative bubble.

That Warsh’s appointment has triggered a market correction in precious metals means investors expect lower inflation, and greater financial stability. The US dollar trading higher also supports this view.

The credibility of the Fed is at stake

The past month has seen much discussion of the changing world order. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently decried the end of the international rules-based order and called for a break from “American hegemony”.

The global dominance of the US dollar is a crucial plank of US economic hegemony. Though Trump clearly remains sceptical of central bank independence, his appointment of Warsh suggests he recognises the importance of retaining the credibility of the US currency and Federal Reserve.

Whether that recognition can continue to temper Trump’s instinct to interfere with the setting of interest rates remains to be seen.The Conversation

About the Author:

Henry Maher, Lecturer in Politics, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Metals Opinions
10 Feb

The Swiss franc is trading near a 15-year high against the dollar. The Chinese yuan strengthened to 6.9 per dollar

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, trading on the US stock market closed higher. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.47%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.90%. The market was primarily supported by shares of large technology companies and AI-related issuers, which offset investor caution ahead of the publication of key US macroeconomic data. The growth leaders were Nvidia (+2.5%), Broadcom (+3.4%), and Oracle (+9.6%) following analyst upgrades amid steady demand for AI infrastructure. At the same time, software developers lagged, reflecting concerns regarding generative AI’s pressure on margins and the outlook for the cloud business. Market focus is shifting to the delayed employment report and upcoming US inflation data.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to 1.356 per USD, approaching a 16-month high, amid strong labor market data and rising commodity prices. In January, unemployment fell to 6.5%, the lowest since September 2024, while growth in full-time employment and wages weakened expectations for an early policy easing by the Bank of Canada and supported foreign capital inflows. The CAD received additional support from the general weakening of the US dollar following weak US labor data and rising oil prices, which improved Canada’s terms of trade.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 17.20 per dollar, hitting a new high since mid-2024 amid USD weakening and the market’s reaction to January inflation data. Banxico’s decision to maintain the rate at 7% and its emphasis on inflationary risks reduced expectations of rapid policy easing, supporting the peso’s real yield. Inflation in January accelerated to 3.79% y/y, slightly missing projections, with moderate monthly price growth, allowing the regulator to maintain a cautious approach.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.19%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.60%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.40%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.16%. European stock indices closed with sharp gains on Monday, supported by banks, industrial giants, and the technology sector amid a series of positive corporate news and a steady view of relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions for equities this year.

The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened to 0.770 per dollar, approaching its highest levels since 2011 amid demand for safe-haven assets and USD weakness. Investors remain cautious due to risks surrounding AI and recommendations from Chinese regulators to reduce holdings in US Treasuries, which is intensifying capital outflows from the dollar. The market focus this week is on Swiss inflation data for January (February 13), where prices are expected to rise by only 0.1% y/y. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel noted the challenges of low inflation with a 0% rate, emphasizing the bank’s readiness to intervene in the currency market if necessary, rather than rushing to cut rates, maintaining a course toward price stability.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices declined toward $64.2 per barrel but retained most of the gains recorded on Monday amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Prices were supported by Washington’s warning to US-flagged vessels to avoid Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz, despite reports of progress in negotiations held in Oman. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding a possible agreement persists as Iran continues to insist on uranium enrichment. An additional risk factor for the market remains the situation with Indian imports of Russian oil: a possible freeze on purchases as part of a new trade agreement with the US could significantly support oil quotes.

Asian markets rose confidently on Monday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped 3.89% after the weekend elections, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.24%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.76%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.85%. Sentiment in Asia improved after Japan’s ruling party won a convincing election victory, but investors are still grappling with an uncertain economic outlook and concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence on various sectors.
On Tuesday, the offshore yuan (CNH) strengthened to 6.9 per dollar, approaching a 34-month high following reports that Chinese regulators recommended banks reduce excessive exposure to US Treasuries. The measure is aimed at reducing concentration risks amid uncertain US economic policy and has strengthened expectations of a broader global shift away from dollar assets, as well as a gradual structural shift in China’s currency strategy. The yuan received additional support from increased corporate demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, when companies traditionally convert dollars for payroll, supplier settlements, and bonuses.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,964.82 +32.52 (+0.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 50,135.87 +20.20 (+0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 25,014.87 +293.41 (+1.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,386.23 +16.48 (+0.16%)

USD Index 96.86 −0.77% (−0.79%)

News feed for: 2026.02.10

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – NOK (MED)
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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