InvestMacro

The US stocks rose firmly on Thursday, driven by a sharp improvement in sentiment within the technology sector and a generally positive flow of macroeconomic data. At the close of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.60%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.26%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished higher by 0.26%. The key market driver was the earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which bolstered investor confidence in the long-term AI-related investment cycle. The company reported a 35% increase in fourth-quarter profit and provided a more optimistic revenue prognosis than expected. This triggered a broad rally in semiconductor stocks and related equipment manufacturers, restoring risk appetite across the entire tech sector.

In geopolitics, the tone became less strained following a softening of US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding Iran. However, uncertainty persists due to his statements regarding Greenland.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.39 against the US dollar, remaining in a tight range near early December lows, as a strengthening US dollar and falling oil prices outweighed relatively stable domestic factors. The easing of President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran led to a reduction in the geopolitical premium in oil, putting pressure on commodity prices and weakening CAD support from trade conditions. Domestically, pressure on the currency persists due to a sluggish labor market: the unemployment rate remains around 6.8%, anchoring the Bank of Canada’s neutral stance and limiting the potential for policy tightening to support the currency.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 17.65 per US dollar, its highest level since July 2024, thanks to a renewed influx of capital through carry-trade operations, driven by Mexico’s persistently high real interest rates. Banxico slowed its rate-cutting cycle, holding the benchmark rate at 7% and signaling the need for caution amid persistent core inflation. This maintains one of the widest real yield differentials in emerging markets, supporting capital inflows into peso-denominated fixed-income assets.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.26%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.21%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.30%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished up 0.54%. Investors reacted positively to a combination of encouraging macroeconomic data and corporate news while accounting for the geopolitical backdrop. The market was supported by fresh data indicating that the German economy returned to moderate growth in 2025, expanding by 0.2% after two years of decline. Additional momentum came from the technology sector amid renewed AI optimism following TSMC’s record results, which improved sentiment in the high-tech and industrial segments.

WTI crude oil prices collapsed nearly 5% on Thursday to $59 per barrel, marking the sharpest one-day drop since October as geopolitical risks surrounding Iran receded. The primary trigger was US President Donald Trump’s statement that he had received assurances from the Iranian side regarding the cessation of protester killings. This dampened expectations of immediate US military intervention and sharply reduced fears of disruptions to Iranian production and strategic supply routes. Additionally, Trump noted his belief that Venezuela should remain in OPEC, which markets interpreted as a signal to maintain the status quo on supply rather than pursue sharp cuts.

Asian markets traded without a unified trend yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.42%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.51%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) shed 0.28%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.47%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened to the 0.575 level on Friday and is heading for a weekly gain following a series of positive signals from the real sector. The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) rose for the sixth consecutive month in December, accelerating to its highest levels in four years. The market has ramped up expectations for policy tightening later this year: the probability of a rate hike in September is estimated at approximately 57%, with such a move almost fully priced in by October. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) February meeting is still perceived as a non-event, with the rate expected to remain at 2.25%.

The Malaysian economy’s growth, according to preliminary estimates, accelerated to 5.7% year-on-year in Q4 2025, compared to 5.2% in the previous quarter, marking the fastest pace since Q2 2024. The key driver was a recovery in the industrial sector. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased by 3.0% following an upwardly revised 5.4% jump in Q3 – the highest since late 2021. For the full year 2025, the economy grew by 4.9%, slowing only slightly from 5.1% the previous year.

At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by -0.09%. The S&P 500 (US500) shed -0.53%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by -1.00%. The US stock markets continued their decline on Wednesday, retreating from recent record highs amid mixed corporate reports, conflicting macro data, and rising geopolitical tensions. The technology sector faced the most significant pressure: semiconductor stocks faced a sell-off following reports of restrictions from China, which notably soured overall market sentiment. Macroeconomic statistics failed to pivot the market: moderate inflation and stable consumption only confirmed expectations that the Fed’s current policy will remain unchanged, failing to offset the impact of corporate and political factors. Wells Fargo shares fell by -3.9% after the company missed profit and revenue forecasts. Bank of America shares declined -3.6% despite beating expectations, while Citigroup dropped -0.3% after posting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue figures. JPMorgan shares fell -0.3%, extending a -4.1% slide from the previous session following disappointing quarterly results.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell -0.53%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down -0.19%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by +0.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished Wednesday up +0.46%.

On Thursday, silver prices (XAG) dropped sharply by approximately -6%, falling below $88 per ounce and retreating from recently reached all-time highs. Pressure on prices emerged after US President Donald Trump delayed the introduction of new import duties on critical minerals, reducing short-term geopolitical and trade risks. An additional factor in the decline was the weakened appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets. Demand waned following Trump’s statements that he had received assurances regarding the cessation of executions of protesters in Iran, which eased fears of potential US military intervention and regional escalation.

WTI crude oil prices declined by approximately -3% on Thursday to around $60 per barrel, snapping a five-session winning streak. The correction was triggered by easing geopolitical tensions following comments from US President Donald Trump, which lowered expectations of an imminent military strike on Iran. Additional pressure came from EIA data showing a rise in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, although distillate stocks decreased. Together, these factors intensified profit-taking and accelerated the reversal of quotes after a prolonged rally.

US natural gas prices (XNG) plunged by -10%, approaching their lowest levels since October 17, due to a reduction in gas flows to LNG export facilities. Gas deliveries to LNG plants on Wednesday dropped to a two-month low of 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) due to reduced supplies to Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant and the Freeport LNG plant.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained +1.48%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by -1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed +0.56%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of +0.14% yesterday. On Wednesday, PRC regulators raised minimum margin requirements for stock transactions from 80% to 100%, effectively restricting leverage and highlighting Beijing’s commitment to curbing excessive speculation and systemic risks in capital markets.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) traded virtually unchanged near $0.668, holding close to a two-week low. Australian consumer inflation expectations remained at a high level of 4.6% in January, virtually unchanged from December, indicating persistent concerns over rising prices. Nevertheless, markets remain skeptical of imminent policy tightening: the probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February is estimated at approximately 27%, while it rises to about 76% by May.

The US stock indices managed to recover from an early-morning sell-off on Monday, ending the session higher and setting new records. By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.17%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed up 0.08%. Initial pressure on the market was linked to reports of a criminal investigation launched against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which heightened concerns regarding political pressure on the regulator. The banking sector was most notably affected, with shares of major players declining amid discussions of an initiative to cap credit card interest rates. Nevertheless, overall investor sentiment remained positive due to expectations of strong Q4 corporate earnings, primarily from major banks, and hopes for relatively soft inflation data, which supported risk appetite.

On Monday evening, Trump announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, following repeated warnings of potential military action amid mass protests in the country.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 17.91 per dollar, reaching its highest level since July 2024, driven by a combination of external and internal factors. Support for the peso was provided by the Bank of Mexico’s balanced stance. Following the December rate cut, the regulator emphasized that future decisions depend on macroeconomic data, noting that underlying inflationary pressures persist and require caution. The absence of signals regarding rapid policy easing helped stabilize market expectations and maintain the appeal of the Mexican currency.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.57%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.04%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.14%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the day up 0.16%. Large companies in the industrial and financial services sectors continued their positive momentum: Siemens, Airbus, and Deutsche Bank gained between 1% and 4%. Technology stocks also largely rose, despite ongoing skepticism regarding the fundamental profitability of artificial intelligence amid rising capital expenditures.

The Swiss franc (CHF) is holding near highs seen in the early 2010s due to increased demand for safe-haven currencies. The franc was supported by escalating geopolitical tensions, including harsh mutual warnings between the US and Iran, as well as growing uncertainty surrounding international security following discussions of a potential increase in NATO’s military presence in Greenland. On the domestic front, Switzerland’s macroeconomic situation remains stable: recent inflation data reinforced expectations that the SNB will keep rates at zero in the near term, which did not prevent the franc from maintaining its status as one of the key defensive assets.

WTI crude oil prices recovered intraday losses on Monday to close higher. Prices were supported by escalating tensions in Iran, where large-scale protests increased the risk of disruptions in oil production and exports, despite government claims of a stabilizing situation. Potential strikes and threats to energy infrastructure maintain high market volatility. Supply concerns partially offset expectations of increased production in Venezuela following political changes and preparations for the resumption of exports.

US natural gas prices (XNG) rose by more than 5%, climbing above $3.35 per MMBtu and recovering from a drop to multi-week lows. The recovery was triggered by updated weather prognoses indicating the approach of colder temperatures. Market balance factors also provided support. Gas exports remain near record levels, while domestic production edged down from its December peak. An additional positive signal was a deeper-than-seasonal-norm reduction in inventories, which strengthened investor confidence in the improving fundamental market picture.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.61%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 1.44%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.48%.

In Australia, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 1.7% month-on-month in January 2026 to a three-month low of 92.9 points, amid persistent concerns over interest rate hikes. Commodity-related stocks led the gains, as prices surged due to tensions surrounding Iran and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence.