InvestMacro

On Wednesday, the US stocks closed mixed as investors balanced contradictory macroeconomic signals against expectations of a possible Fed policy easing. By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.94%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped by 0.34%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.16%. JOLTS data indicated a notable contraction in job openings and a cooling of labor demand, while the ADP report showed a moderate recovery in private sector hiring, and the growth in the ISM Services PMI confirmed a scenario of a slowing but still resilient economy. At the corporate level, the market was pressured by a decline in banking stocks: JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America shares fell by more than 2%, which was one of the reasons for the Dow’s weakness. At the same time, the technology sector appeared more stable – NVIDIA rose by 1%, and Alphabet gained 2.5%, supporting the Nasdaq.

European stock indices ended Wednesday’s trading with slight declines, taking a pause after the recent strong rally amid the ongoing reassessment of the ECB’s monetary policy prospects. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.92%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a decrease of 0.04%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.29%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.74%. Recent data showed that Eurozone inflation slowed to 2% in December, as expected, while core inflation fell more than projections, strengthening expectations that the ECB may proceed with rate cuts during the year. Defense companies were among the top gainers amid rising geopolitical tensions related to White House statements regarding Greenland and the US seizure of a Russian tanker that violated the blockade of Venezuela.

On Thursday, silver dropped below the $77 per ounce mark, continuing a correction after the recent rapid rally to historic highs. The weakening of bullish momentum coincided with a strengthening of the US dollar and mixed macroeconomic signals from the US, which failed to provide markets with a clear direction regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Currently, market participants estimate the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the next meeting at nearly 90%, although expectations for several rate cuts in the second half of the year remain priced in. This combination is curbing demand for precious metals in the short term, increasing investors’ inclination to take profits after the sharp rise in prices.

The US natural gas prices rose by more than 4% to $3.50 per MMBtu, rebounding from a 10-week low reached on January 6, amid a reduction in production and a revision of weather prognoses toward colder conditions and increased heating demand. Average production in the Lower 48 states in early January decreased to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day from the December record of 109.7 billion. Additional market support came from a rise in LNG exports: deliveries to the eight largest export terminals increased to a record 18.6 billion cubic feet per day.

Asian markets traded without a unified dynamic yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.06%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.45%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.94%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.15%. At the start of Thursday’s trading, Hong Kong stocks declined by 1.4%, continuing a fall for the second consecutive session. Pressure was intensified by profit-taking after the market reached a seven-week high earlier in the week, as well as growing caution ahead of Friday’s release of December inflation data from China (CPI and PPI). An additional negative factor was the geopolitical tension following Beijing’s decision to ban the export of dual-use goods to Japan in response to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan. However, the decline was partially mitigated by optimistic expectations from Goldman Sachs, which predicts steady growth for Chinese stocks this year due to increased corporate profits related to the development of artificial intelligence.

The New Zealand dollar held near the $0.576 mark, remaining in a sideways range throughout the week as investors balance external risks and domestic monetary expectations. On the external side, sentiment continues to be pressured by geopolitical uncertainty: political events in Venezuela following the removal of Nicolás Maduro, as well as rising tension between China and Japan, maintain a cautious approach to risk currencies, including the NZD. In the domestic context, the position of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains a key anchor for the exchange rate. The regulator signaled that the easing cycle, in which rates were cut by 225 bps, likely concluded last year, while also dispelling expectations for an imminent policy tightening.

Following Monday’s results, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.23%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.64%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.69%. On Monday, the rally in the US stock market continued, with the energy and financial sectors providing the main support to the indices. Investors perceived the US arrest of the Venezuelan leader more as a potential opportunity for future investment in the country’s oil industry than as a factor for immediate geopolitical escalation. Chevron shares jumped more than 5% due to expectations of the company expanding its presence in Venezuela, while oil refining companies rose on prospects of increased heavy oil supply.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.38 per US dollar, losing some of its recent gains after reaching its highest level since July. Pressure on the currency intensified due to the strengthening of the dollar caused by the geopolitical situation, specifically the US seizure of the President of Venezuela, which triggered an increase in demand for the dollar and raised concerns about the prospects for Venezuelan oil. Speculation regarding production and an uneven market reaction strengthened doubts about the stability of oil prices, which is a key support factor for the Canadian currency. Furthermore, the slowdown in economic growth in Canada in Q4 weakened the arguments for tight monetary policy, and global oil market expectations for 2026 suggest a supply surplus and moderate demand, further limiting the potential for the Canadian dollar to strengthen.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to a level above 18 per US dollar, as the sharp rise in the dollar caused by US military actions in Venezuela outweighed domestic currency support factors. The increased demand for the dollar triggered pressure on regional currencies, and the easing of the Bank of Mexico policy in late December reduced the yield advantage that had previously supported the peso after strong growth in 2025. This pressure is partially offset by an improvement in the external position and a transition to a current account surplus in mid-2025, which creates a floor for a sharper devaluation.
Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.34%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.20%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a positive 0.54%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) weakened to a level of around 0.795 per US dollar, remaining close to highs not seen since 2011, amid rising geopolitical tensions following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Uncertainty in the global economy related to US trade policy, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts, intensified demand for safe-haven assets despite the weakness of the franc. Investors remain focused on the upcoming domestic inflation data to be released on January 8: a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index is expected in monthly terms, with a growth of only 0.1% in annual terms. In December, the Swiss National Bank kept rates at 0%, and most analysts do not expect changes in 2026.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose above 1720 dollars per ounce, approaching a weekly high, amid rising geopolitical tensions in Venezuela following the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The events stimulated demand for precious metals as haven assets and also supported palladium due to its key role in catalytic converters for gasoline engines. Demand is also supported by expectations of the EU easing the ban on internal combustion engines by 2035 while maintaining strict environmental standards, and the launch of palladium futures in China, which increases liquidity and provides hedging opportunities.
Asian markets rose in synchronization yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.97%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.57%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.01%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.672 dollars, remaining near its highest level since October 2024, amid an improvement in global risk sentiment and a weakening of the US dollar. Investor attention is shifting to the publication of Australian inflation data for November, which is expected on Wednesday and is projected to show a moderate slowdown in price pressure. This data could prove key for the next steps of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had previously allowed for the possibility of a rate hike if inflationary risks persist.

Following Monday’s results, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.23%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.64%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.69%. On Monday, the rally in the US stock market continued, with the energy and financial sectors providing the main support to the indices. Investors perceived the US arrest of the Venezuelan leader more as a potential opportunity for future investment in the country’s oil industry than as a factor for immediate geopolitical escalation. Chevron shares jumped more than 5% due to expectations of the company expanding its presence in Venezuela, while oil refining companies rose on prospects of increased heavy oil supply.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.38 per US dollar, losing some of its recent gains after reaching its highest level since July. Pressure on the currency intensified due to the strengthening of the dollar caused by the geopolitical situation, specifically the US seizure of the President of Venezuela, which triggered an increase in demand for the dollar and raised concerns about the prospects for Venezuelan oil. Speculation regarding production and an uneven market reaction strengthened doubts about the stability of oil prices, which is a key support factor for the Canadian currency. Furthermore, the slowdown in economic growth in Canada in Q4 weakened the arguments for tight monetary policy, and global oil market expectations for 2026 suggest a supply surplus and moderate demand, further limiting the potential for the Canadian dollar to strengthen.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to a level above 18 per US dollar, as the sharp rise in the dollar caused by US military actions in Venezuela outweighed domestic currency support factors. The increased demand for the dollar triggered pressure on regional currencies, and the easing of the Bank of Mexico policy in late December reduced the yield advantage that had previously supported the peso after strong growth in 2025. This pressure is partially offset by an improvement in the external position and a transition to a current account surplus in mid-2025, which creates a floor for a sharper devaluation.
Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.34%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.20%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a positive 0.54%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) weakened to a level of around 0.795 per US dollar, remaining close to highs not seen since 2011, amid rising geopolitical tensions following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Uncertainty in the global economy related to US trade policy, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts, intensified demand for safe-haven assets despite the weakness of the franc. Investors remain focused on the upcoming domestic inflation data to be released on January 8: a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index is expected in monthly terms, with a growth of only 0.1% in annual terms. In December, the Swiss National Bank kept rates at 0%, and most analysts do not expect changes in 2026.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose above 1720 dollars per ounce, approaching a weekly high, amid rising geopolitical tensions in Venezuela following the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The events stimulated demand for precious metals as haven assets and also supported palladium due to its key role in catalytic converters for gasoline engines. Demand is also supported by expectations of the EU easing the ban on internal combustion engines by 2035 while maintaining strict environmental standards, and the launch of palladium futures in China, which increases liquidity and provides hedging opportunities.
Asian markets rose in synchronization yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.97%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.57%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.01%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.672 dollars, remaining near its highest level since October 2024, amid an improvement in global risk sentiment and a weakening of the US dollar. Investor attention is shifting to the publication of Australian inflation data for November, which is expected on Wednesday and is projected to show a moderate slowdown in price pressure. This data could prove key for the next steps of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had previously allowed for the possibility of a rate hike if inflationary risks persist.