InvestMacro

Investment banks believe in rising indices. Chinese airliner C919 made its first commercial flight

At the close of the stock market yesterday the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.56%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.93%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed Monday positive 1.51%. Investors were confidently buying stocks yesterday ahead of important inflation data today. One of the main reasons for the buying is Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 4500 points from 4000 points. Analysts believe that if incoming data for June and July show that US inflation will decline, there is a high probability that the Fed will finish raising rates this cycle.

The US inflation data for May will be released today. Inflationary pressures are expected to fall, which will increase the likelihood of a pause at tomorrow’s US Fed meeting.

The US federal government’s budget deficit for the first eight months of the fiscal year reached $1.16 trillion, up 191% from a year ago. Growth in interest expense has been the main driver of spending growth so far in the fiscal year. However, that spending declined in May because of lower interest payments on inflation-protected Treasury securities.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) jumped by 8% ahead of a presentation today. The chipmaker is likely to unveil updates to its data center and AI technology.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 0.93%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.37%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.11% yesterday.

Jonathan Haskell of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee said yesterday that the central bank might have to raise interest rates more than once from their current levels in order to get inflation under control. Britain’s economy looks set to avoid recession this year, but deep-rooted problems such as weak business investment will persist, the trade body the Confederation of British Industry said Monday.

The ECB has to balance raising borrowing costs to reduce demand and curb inflation without causing a deep economic downturn. Revised data last week showed that Eurozone GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.1%, marking the second quarter of contraction and meeting the technical definition of a recession. Investors have new concerns that the region will not handle the aftermath of the war with Russia as well as anticipated, casting doubt on the more optimistic outlook for 2023

Crude oil prices fell by 4% on Monday. It was all due to comments from Iran’s supreme leader on a possible nuclear deal with the United States, which would open Iran’s access to the world market of oil products.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 0.52% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.07% for the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was not trading yesterday.

Most Asian stocks rose Tuesday, following strong gains on Wall Street, as markets bet that the Federal Reserve will suspend its rate hike cycle this week, while an interest rate cut in China also boosted sentiment in the region.

Chinese airliner C919 made its first commercial flight. China plans to build the airliner from its own components, in order to be less dependent on parts from the US and Europe. But in a broader context, import substitution efforts are not yet sufficient. It is estimated that 40% of C919 parts, including the engine, are imported from French Safran and US General Electric.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,338.93 +40.07 (+0.93%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,066.33 +189.55 (+0.56%)

DAX (DE40) 16,097.87 +148.03 (+0.93%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,570.69 +8.33 (+0.11%)

USD Index 103.62 +0.06 (+0.06%)

Important events for today:

– Australia NAB Business Confidence at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Jun

The US-Iran nuclear deal is back on the agenda. China’s central bank is preparing for an interest rate cut

By JustMarkets

At the stock market close on Friday the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.13% (+0.31% for the week) and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.11% (+0.37% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) on Friday closed positive by 0.16% (+0.16% for the week). The rally in US stocks shows signs of investor confidence that the US economy is holding up despite higher interest rates. Recession risks are declining. Some investors have begun to dive into economically sensitive market areas, including mid-cap and small-cap companies, energy and industrial stocks, not just “mega-companies.” Stronger-than-expected job growth and solid consumer spending were among the indicators that bolstered investors’ economic outlook. This week, investors will keep an eye on US inflation data as well as the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. German DAX (DE30) shed by 0.25% (-0.81% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.12% on Friday (-1.12% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.34% (-0.49% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) close negative by 0.49% (-0.59% for the week).

The ECB will hold its meeting on June 15, the day after the Federal Reserve. There is little doubt that Europe’s central bank will raise key rates by a quarter point. The interest rate will reach 4%. The swap market is confident that the ECB’s decision will not be finalized and expects at least one more quarter-point hike at the end of the third quarter.

Thomas Jordan, President of the Swiss National Bank, hints at further rate hikes to combat inflation. Switzerland’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.2% in May, but that is not enough for the SNB as the bank wants to see inflation in the 0-2% range. Analysts and the market expect the SNB to raise interest rates at its June 22 meeting.

The US Treasury yields are gradually rising as the US government continues to sell huge amounts of government bonds. Gold and silver are inversely correlated to government bond yields. And with the US Federal Reserve at the end of its tightening cycle, precious metals have more fundamental catalysts for growth in the medium term.

Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Monday, with the price of WTI dropping back below $70 a barrel after Iran’s leader said the country is open to a deal with the West on its nuclear program, albeit with some reservations. Iran is ready to make a deal only if Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is kept intact. The comments came just days after both Tehran and Washington denied reports of a possible deal. If the deal is completed, it would sharply increase oil supply in the market, sending oil prices plummeting in the face of weak demand.

Asian markets traded higher last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 1.26% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.47% for the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.32% for the week.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain an ultra-soft monetary policy this week and is forecasting a moderate recovery as strong corporate and household spending softens the blow from slowing demand overseas. The central bank may also signal that inflation is exceeding its forecasts, making it more likely to raise its price forecasts when it revises its estimates quarterly.

The Chinese yuan fell to a six-month low against the dollar as major state-owned Chinese banks began cutting interest rates on yuan-denominated deposits. The move foreshadows a broader cut in the central bank’s main lending rate later this month as it struggles to support economic growth.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,298.86 +4.93 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,876.78 +43.17 (+0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 15,949.84 −40.12 (−0.25%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,562.36 −37.38 (−0.49%)

USD Index 103.55 +0.21 (+0.20%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Jun

Trade Of The Week: XAUUSD Gearing Up For Breakout?

By ForexTime

Don’t be fooled by Gold’s current state of calm.

This could be an explosively volatile week for the precious metal due to key economic reports and high-risk events.

Over the past few weeks, gold has found itself trapped within a range with support at $1938 and resistance at $1983. A major breakout could be around the corner and here are reasons why….

Key US inflation data

On Tuesday, 13th June the latest US CPI report will be released.

US inflation is expected to have slowed again in May after slightly easing in April. Markets forecast the MoM print to rise 0.2% after the 0.4% increase in April while the annual headline reading is seen falling to 4.1% from 4.9%. When keeping in mind that CPI hit 9.1% in June 2022, the drop in inflation has been a welcome development, driven by falling energy and commodity prices.

However, much attention will be on the Core CPI reading which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4% MoM while the annual reading is seen cooling to 5.2% from 5.5% in April.

Fresh signs of cooling inflationary pressures may reinforce expectations around the Federal Reserve ending its hiking campaign. This development could inject gold bulls with renewed confidence ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday.
If US inflation continues to run hot, rising more than market forecasts this could drag gold prices lower as bets rise over the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer.

Federal Reserve rate decision

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, 14th June.

Markets widely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged with traders currently pricing in a 23% probability of a 25bps hike on Wednesday, according to Fed fund futures. Nevertheless, the unexpected rate hikes from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have created some element of uncertainty over what to expect from the Fed. Investors are likely to closely scrutinize the updated dot plots, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for fresh clues on the central bank’s next move.

If the Fed moves ahead with a hawkish hold and signals one more rate hike in July, this could weaken gold prices – especially if the dollar rises along with Treasury yields.
An unexpected rate hike may deal with a heavy blow toward zero-yielding gold, potentially sending prices tumbling to levels not seen since mid-March 2023 around $1900.

Gold in breakout mode?

After swinging within a range since mid-May 2023, gold could be ready to break out.

A strong daily close and breakout above $1983 may inspire an incline toward the $2000 psychological level and $2018, respectively. Should prices breach the $1938 support, where the 100-day SMA resides – this could open a path back toward $1900. Ultimately, how gold concludes this week will be heavily influenced by the US inflation data and Fed decision.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions

11 Jun

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (3,665 contracts) with Bitcoin (582 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-12,342 contracts), Japanese Yen (-8,624 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-8,415 contracts), EuroFX (-7,304 contracts), Brazilian Real (-5,094 contracts), Swiss Franc (-879 contracts), British Pound (-751 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-573 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-549 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the declining sentiment of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency.

Large speculative Euro positions dropped by over -7,000 contracts this week and fell for a third consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now decreased by a total of -28,668 contracts over these past three weeks to bring the bullish position to a total of +158,421 contracts, a nine week low. Previously, speculator bets had risen for six straight weeks from April 11th to May 16th and pushed the overall bullish speculative level to the highest standing in the past 137-weeks, dating back to late-September of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) hit over a 12-month high in May above the 1.1000 level and speculators were sharply positioning themselves for it to go higher. This was helped out this year by the interest rate hiking schedule of European Central Bank (ECB) which was raising their rates while the US Federal Reserve was being seen as nearing the end of its own rate hiking campaign.

However, this one-way dynamic has become more cloudy with some recent data-points.

The Eurozone has fallen into a technical recession (2 quarters of negative growth), inflation has started to trend downwards (although still above 6 percent) and there is an expectation there will be possibly only 2 more ECB rate hikes before a pause. Meanwhile, rates traders are expecting (at this moment) the Fed to raise the US interest rate by 25 basis points once again at the July 26th meeting.

The Euro’s market strength recently hit a roadblock at the May high and the psychological level of 1.1000. The Euro has now tumbled in four out of the past five weeks and dropped all the way down to the 1.0635 exchange by the end of May. This week, the Euro rebounded modestly and the weekly closing price was near 1.0750. If speculators continue to further shed Euro positions, it is possible we could see a short-squeeze bring the currency lower still and challenge the 1.0500 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,930	32	12,219	45	-15,163	52	2,944	49
EUR	781,967	84	158,421	79	-203,916	22	45,495	52
GBP	242,117	63	12,484	80	-14,124	24	1,640	61
JPY	245,332	76	-104,817	4	113,736	91	-8,919	35
CHF	44,087	50	-1,314	51	7,048	57	-5,734	38
CAD	168,025	42	-38,329	19	38,456	82	-127	23
AUD	209,680	98	-56,468	32	67,496	69	-11,028	26
NZD	41,665	39	-703	52	2,856	53	-2,153	24
MXN	235,994	50	81,670	100	-87,777	0	6,107	87
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	46,686	35	26,181	69	-25,721	33	-460	40
Bitcoin	13,026	56	769	90	-1,196	0	427	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent), Bitcoin (90 percent) and the British Pound (80 percent) led the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (79 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (32 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (46.2 percent)
EuroFX (79.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (82.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (80.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (51.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (53.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (51.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.6 percent)
Bitcoin (90.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (80.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (19 percent) and the Bitcoin (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (12 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (7 percent) and the British Pound (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the EuroFX (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.8 percent)
EuroFX (-4.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (11.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (18.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.1	3.8	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	48.5	8.1
– Net Position:	12,219	-15,163	2,944
– Gross Longs:	24,791	1,280	5,698
– Gross Shorts:	12,572	16,443	2,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	51.7	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-3.9	10.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 158,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	53.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	79.7	6.4
– Net Position:	158,421	-203,916	45,495
– Gross Longs:	236,060	419,532	95,766
– Gross Shorts:	77,639	623,448	50,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	21.6	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	6.9	-15.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	53.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	58.9	11.4
– Net Position:	12,484	-14,124	1,640
– Gross Longs:	65,063	128,441	29,200
– Gross Shorts:	52,579	142,565	27,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	24.5	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-2.4	-6.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -104,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	71.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	24.8	16.2
– Net Position:	-104,817	113,736	-8,919
– Gross Longs:	34,151	174,461	30,731
– Gross Shorts:	138,968	60,725	39,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	91.1	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	20.1	-10.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	47.0	25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	31.0	38.7
– Net Position:	-1,314	7,048	-5,734
– Gross Longs:	11,579	20,726	11,309
– Gross Shorts:	12,893	13,678	17,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	56.6	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	7.2	-22.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	63.1	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	40.2	18.7
– Net Position:	-38,329	38,456	-127
– Gross Longs:	21,709	106,003	31,338
– Gross Shorts:	60,038	67,547	31,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	82.3	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.1	4.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	57.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	24.9	14.5
– Net Position:	-56,468	67,496	-11,028
– Gross Longs:	54,501	119,775	19,365
– Gross Shorts:	110,969	52,279	30,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	69.2	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	10.3	7.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	45.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	38.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-703	2,856	-2,153
– Gross Longs:	16,109	18,954	3,502
– Gross Shorts:	16,812	16,098	5,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.7	53.2	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-2.5	-17.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.3	41.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	78.8	1.3
– Net Position:	81,670	-87,777	6,107
– Gross Longs:	123,447	98,261	9,230
– Gross Shorts:	41,777	186,038	3,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-19.1	18.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,275 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.4	21.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	76.4	11.2
– Net Position:	26,181	-25,721	-460
– Gross Longs:	31,930	9,947	4,791
– Gross Shorts:	5,749	35,668	5,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	33.0	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-11.5	0.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	1.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.7	10.6	5.7
– Net Position:	769	-1,196	427
– Gross Longs:	10,106	187	1,172
– Gross Shorts:	9,337	1,383	745
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	11.2	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-37.8	-3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, SOFR, Japanese Yen lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 2.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -1,487 net contracts this week with a change of 181 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 18.9 this week. The speculator position registered 81,670 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 3,665 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 11.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 72,234 net contracts this week with a change of 6,661 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 61.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 40,305 net contracts this week with a change of -2,917 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 96.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.0 this week.

The speculator position was 105,621 net contracts this week with a change of 4,243 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,027,059 net contracts this week with a change of -43,222 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.1 this week. The speculator position was -959,901 net contracts this week with a change of 9,962 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Lean Hogs speculator level resides at a 2.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -33,503 net contracts this week with a change of 2,611 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The speculator position was -90,684 net contracts this week with a change of 3,312 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

Finally, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 4.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.2 this week. The speculator position was -104,817 net contracts this week with a change of -8,624 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

COT Updates Opinions

11 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (96,720 contracts) with the Eurodollar (34,765 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (9,962 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-66,703 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-31,783 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-43,222 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-23,013 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7,099 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (-2,917 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	527,383	0	-3,045	74	13,104	22	-10,059	97
FedFunds	1,482,369	45	-246,858	9	255,064	91	-8,206	75
2-Year	3,351,277	100	-959,901	1	864,871	98	95,030	100
Long T-Bond	1,249,240	70	-82,926	58	41,862	26	41,064	78
10-Year	4,578,932	82	-753,701	9	693,419	93	60,282	87
5-Year	4,850,014	87	-1,027,059	0	1,016,651	100	10,408	84

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (98 percent) and the Eurodollar (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (1 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (9 percent), the Fed Funds (9 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (21.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (57.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (65.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.7 percent)
Eurodollar (74.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (73.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (97.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (98.0 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (61 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-39 percent), the Fed Funds (-20 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-19.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-7.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-39.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-37.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-14.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-20.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-1.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (18.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.4 percent)
Eurodollar (1.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (61.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (54.2 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	63.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	61.1	11.5
– Net Position:	-3,045	13,104	-10,059
– Gross Longs:	141,397	335,311	50,675
– Gross Shorts:	144,442	322,207	60,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	22.0	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-0.9	-0.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	61.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	61.3	0.6
– Net Position:	40,305	-24,496	-15,809
– Gross Longs:	1,581,630	6,023,024	41,854
– Gross Shorts:	1,541,325	6,047,520	57,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	3.4	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	61.3	-60.5	-5.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -246,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -66,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -180,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	78.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	61.5	2.9
– Net Position:	-246,858	255,064	-8,206
– Gross Longs:	52,857	1,167,235	34,401
– Gross Shorts:	299,715	912,171	42,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	90.5	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	19.1	8.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -959,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -969,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	80.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	55.1	4.3
– Net Position:	-959,901	864,871	95,030
– Gross Longs:	370,970	2,712,847	240,315
– Gross Shorts:	1,330,871	1,847,976	145,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	97.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.1	40.6	16.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,027,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -983,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-1,027,059	1,016,651	10,408
– Gross Longs:	326,795	4,085,049	359,182
– Gross Shorts:	1,353,854	3,068,398	348,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	83.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	16.4	-5.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -753,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 96,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -850,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	80.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	65.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-753,701	693,419	60,282
– Gross Longs:	410,777	3,675,457	397,950
– Gross Shorts:	1,164,478	2,982,038	337,668
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	93.1	86.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	0.9	1.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -142,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -31,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	76.8	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	63.7	15.5
– Net Position:	-142,577	218,066	-75,489
– Gross Longs:	174,272	1,275,948	181,822
– Gross Shorts:	316,849	1,057,882	257,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	80.9	69.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-11.0	1.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -82,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	75.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	72.2	10.7
– Net Position:	-82,926	41,862	41,064
– Gross Longs:	102,025	943,943	175,105
– Gross Shorts:	184,951	902,081	134,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	25.5	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	5.4	-21.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -406,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -399,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	82.4	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	58.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-406,999	356,439	50,560
– Gross Longs:	85,791	1,205,231	166,525
– Gross Shorts:	492,790	848,792	115,965
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	79.2	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.7	0.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

11 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (9,746 contracts) with Gold (6,325 contracts), Steel (2,593 contracts), Platinum (1,207 contracts) and Silver (351 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Palladium with a total change of -552 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	436,301	7	175,641	54	-198,187	47	22,546	36
Silver	137,871	23	21,475	49	-34,065	53	12,590	36
Copper	229,756	66	-25,956	8	24,610	92	1,346	27
Palladium	11,541	76	-6,602	5	7,192	97	-590	6
Platinum	67,537	65	24,613	72	-28,747	34	4,134	24

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) and Copper (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (51.6 percent)
Silver (48.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.4 percent)
Copper (8.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (72.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (69.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.7 percent)
Steel (65.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)

Steel tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (-12 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Silver (-13 percent) and Platinum (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-4.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.1 percent)
Silver (-13.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.8 percent)
Copper (-7.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.6 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.1 percent)
Palladium (-6.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.8 percent)
Steel (8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 175,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	26.7	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	72.1	5.7
– Net Position:	175,641	-198,187	22,546
– Gross Longs:	237,467	116,363	47,595
– Gross Shorts:	61,826	314,550	25,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	47.4	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	5.3	-10.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	31.0	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	55.7	9.6
– Net Position:	21,475	-34,065	12,590
– Gross Longs:	53,149	42,785	25,871
– Gross Shorts:	31,674	76,850	13,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	52.6	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	9.0	9.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	46.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	35.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-25,956	24,610	1,346
– Gross Longs:	56,660	105,982	16,315
– Gross Shorts:	82,616	81,372	14,969
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	92.0	27.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	13.5	-46.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	31.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	74.2	4.5
– Net Position:	24,613	-28,747	4,134
– Gross Longs:	35,201	21,339	7,140
– Gross Shorts:	10,588	50,086	3,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	34.0	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	11.5	-7.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	69.2	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.7	6.9	16.4
– Net Position:	-6,602	7,192	-590
– Gross Longs:	2,023	7,992	1,299
– Gross Shorts:	8,625	800	1,889
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	10.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	97.5	6.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	7.4	-9.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	81.6	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	71.5	0.9
– Net Position:	-2,706	2,593	113
– Gross Longs:	2,251	20,912	353
– Gross Shorts:	4,957	18,319	240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	34.6	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-8.5	6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

11 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (24,054 contracts) with Soybeans (9,341 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,784 contracts), Cocoa (6,661 contracts), Corn (5,636 contracts), Coffee (4,711 contracts), Live Cattle (4,243 contracts), Cotton (1,857 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,611 contracts) and Wheat (3,312 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-16,519 contracts) with also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,951,628	49	172,442	4	-198,377	95	25,935	31
Gold	436,301	7	175,641	54	-198,187	47	22,546	36
Silver	137,871	23	21,475	49	-34,065	53	12,590	36
Copper	229,756	66	-25,956	8	24,610	92	1,346	27
Palladium	11,541	76	-6,602	5	7,192	97	-590	6
Platinum	67,537	65	24,613	72	-28,747	34	4,134	24
Natural Gas	1,389,864	85	-126,852	21	92,364	76	34,488	62
Brent	135,100	8	-42,455	23	41,681	84	774	20
Heating Oil	307,550	39	21,277	66	-28,835	61	7,558	25
Soybeans	669,123	21	39,155	5	-16,089	91	-23,066	36
Corn	1,322,137	17	-14,771	27	66,120	82	-51,349	26
Coffee	204,447	16	28,331	56	-28,769	47	438	18
Sugar	1,021,535	75	233,868	74	-278,395	25	44,527	61
Wheat	405,201	69	-90,684	2	85,364	97	5,320	91

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (97 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (74 percent), Soybean Meal (62 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (2 percent), Wheat (2 percent), Soybeans (5 percent) and the Soybean Oil (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (26.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (26.2 percent)
Sugar (73.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (79.4 percent)
Coffee (56.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (51.6 percent)
Soybeans (4.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (57.0 percent)
Live Cattle (96.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (91.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (21.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (92.5 percent)
Wheat (2.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Cotton & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (16 percent) and Cocoa (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybeans (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-16 percent), Coffee (-8 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.4 percent)
Sugar (-16.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.7 percent)
Coffee (-8.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.7 percent)
Soybeans (-25.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-58.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (6.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-12.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (-4.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-18.6 percent)
Live Cattle (4.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.4 percent)
Cotton (16.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.6 percent)
Cocoa (11.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.0 percent)
Wheat (-5.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	50.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	45.8	12.8
– Net Position:	-14,771	66,120	-51,349
– Gross Longs:	268,763	672,074	117,595
– Gross Shorts:	283,534	605,954	168,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	81.7	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.5	6.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 233,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 250,387 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	42.7	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	70.0	4.7
– Net Position:	233,868	-278,395	44,527
– Gross Longs:	316,809	436,281	92,941
– Gross Shorts:	82,941	714,676	48,414
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	24.7	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	17.4	-15.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	44.4	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	58.4	3.4
– Net Position:	28,331	-28,769	438
– Gross Longs:	49,241	90,686	7,356
– Gross Shorts:	20,910	119,455	6,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	47.3	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	8.9	-8.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	52.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	55.0	10.4
– Net Position:	39,155	-16,089	-23,066
– Gross Longs:	136,718	351,669	46,263
– Gross Shorts:	97,563	367,758	69,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.5	91.3	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	20.9	8.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	58.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	56.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-7,194	10,834	-3,640
– Gross Longs:	84,021	312,922	30,043
– Gross Shorts:	91,215	302,088	33,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	88.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-5.0	-5.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,533 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	37.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	61.3	6.8
– Net Position:	103,317	-117,624	14,307
– Gross Longs:	131,273	185,802	47,980
– Gross Shorts:	27,956	303,426	33,673
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	41.2	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	4.8	-5.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 105,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.5	26.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	56.3	11.9
– Net Position:	105,621	-97,322	-8,299
– Gross Longs:	150,516	89,224	31,127
– Gross Shorts:	44,895	186,546	39,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.5	3.2	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-5.9	7.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	39.1	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	25.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-33,503	31,957	1,546
– Gross Longs:	55,832	88,831	21,583
– Gross Shorts:	89,335	56,874	20,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	98.9	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	7.4	-8.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	48.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	59.3	4.8
– Net Position:	16,469	-21,021	4,552
– Gross Longs:	60,225	94,138	13,865
– Gross Shorts:	43,756	115,159	9,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	76.1	43.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-18.5	33.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,573 net contracts.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	27.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	50.5	3.5
– Net Position:	72,234	-76,549	4,315
– Gross Longs:	147,856	92,990	15,922
– Gross Shorts:	75,622	169,539	11,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-11.6	-2.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -90,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	39.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	18.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-90,684	85,364	5,320
– Gross Longs:	106,834	158,400	40,861
– Gross Shorts:	197,518	73,036	35,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	97.2	91.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	8.0	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

09 Jun

Savvy investors pile into semiconductors to build personal wealth

By George Prior

Semiconductors, or chips, should be included in your investment portfolio if you’re serious about growing your wealth over the next decade, says the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The observation from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes against an escalating, trillion-dollar chip battle between geopolitical superpower rivals, the US and China.

It also follows this week the Japanese government overhauling its chip strategy to triple sales of domestically produced semiconductors to over $108 billion by 2030; as France confirms it is to plough $3.1 billion of public money into a factory to make microchips; and as Europe and the United States have both passed so-called Chips Acts.

In addition, chipmaker Nvidia this week briefly broke into the club of companies with a $1 trillion market cap.

The deVere CEO says: “Semiconductors are tiny, but these mighty chips power our world. They are fuelling this current industrial revolution.

“Semiconductors are at the forefront of technological progress. As our reliance on electronic devices continues to grow, the demand for semiconductors is skyrocketing – and will continue to do.

“From smartphones and computers to automobiles and advanced infrastructure, semiconductors are indispensable in powering our daily lives. This ever-increasing demand has created a fiercely competitive market, with companies vying to capture larger market shares and gain technological superiority.”

He continues: “Beyond their technological significance, semiconductors have also become critical strategic assets. They are vital for national security, defense applications, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and the Internet of Things (IoT).

“The ability to control semiconductor manufacturing and develop cutting-edge chip designs has become a matter of top level strategic importance for countries and companies alike.”

Against this backdrop, Nigel Green says that investors looking to create and build wealth for the long-term should include exposure to chips in their portfolios.

“Their far-reaching – and growing – impact on our lives makes it a no-brainer for almost everyone to have semiconductors within a well-diversified portfolio.”

However, his bullish approach does come with a warning.

“But, with every boom, there will be winners and losers. A good fund manager will be critical in helping you make informed decisions.”

Seeking advice, it could be reasonably argued, is perhaps particularly important considering that semiconductors have become entangled in geopolitical tensions and economic considerations.

Major powers such as the US and China are engaged in a race for technological supremacy, with semiconductors at the forefront.

Concerns about intellectual property theft, national security risks, and economic dominance through control over semiconductor technology have prompted trade restrictions, export controls, and investment scrutiny, further fuelling the battleground.

“Semiconductors will remain a fiercely contested battleground for market dominance and technological advancements.

“Their strategic importance is what makes them such an attractive, a potentially hugely rewarding, proposition. Savvy investors keen to build wealth over the next decade will pile in,” concludes the deVere Group CEO.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Opinions Stock Market News

09 Jun

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 09.06.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC is consolidating near 26,455 USD on Friday. The flagship cryptocurrency lost 2.3% over the week.

There are numerous internal triggers that are alarming investors and hindering the market from buying. For example, market players continue to be concerned about the multiple and rather aggressive claims by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Binance and its management. It’s no secret that the SEC is seeking to put pressure on the cryptocurrency sector and complicate its operations to the extent that it would not be feasible to operate. The Commission now appears to have reached for really effective levers.

The fall in the BNB rate has also signalled a sell-off for digital assets.

Support for BTC remains at 26,000 USD, and next at 25,500 USD.

The capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market declined to 1.1 trillion USD. BTC’s share rose to 46.7%, while the share of ETH remains at 20.1%.

FTX keeps its list of major clients secret

Even after the collapse of the company, the bankrupt exchange FTX continues to keep its major clients secret. Multiple media publications argue that such a list should be made public. However, Perella Weinberg Partners, the company that is investigating the capital of FTX and the possibility of restructuring the exchange, believes it should remain undisclosed. Publishing the list could hinder the launch of FTX 2.0.

Ripple sponsors the battle against climate change

Ripple is investing 100 million USD in the fight against climate change. This amount of funding could help accelerate the modernisation of the carbon credit market. Ripple also intends to invest in new models that will enable the tokenization of carbon credits.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
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Cryptocurrencies Financial News

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