InvestMacro

EUR/USD holds firm as the US dollar ends the week with losses

EUR/USD is trading near 1.0806 on Friday, maintaining its position despite failing to extend its gains further. Investors are focused on the upcoming US employment data for February, which will be released later today.

Key factors influencing EUR/USD

The US dollar briefly found support after President Donald Trump temporarily excluded some Canadian and Mexican goods from the 25% tariffs imposed earlier this week. This move raised hopes for further trade concessions, easing concerns slightly.

However, despite this development, the USD is on track to close the first week of March with a loss of over 3%. The escalating trade war has increased fears of negative economic consequences for the US, particularly given the heavy reliance of US companies on free trade.

Meanwhile, the euro gained support from expectations of increased government spending in Germany and other European nations, particularly in defence investments.

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its interest rate as expected, reducing it to 2.65% per annum. This move was widely anticipated and did not create market surprises.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD completed a growth wave to 1.0850 and is now forming a consolidation range around 1.0800. A downward breakout from this range is expected, potentially leading to a decline towards 1.0600. After reaching this level, a correction towards 1.0700 could follow. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but turning downward, indicating potential weakness.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.0800. A move down to 1.0730 is expected, followed by a possible retest of 1.0800 from below before another decline towards 1.0600. If this trend continues, the next target could be 1.0400. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line above 80 and preparing to decline towards 20, indicating a potential bearish shift.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains elevated but faces increasing downside risks, particularly if US job data strengthens the dollar. While trade tensions and ECB policy support the euro, technical indicators suggest a potential decline towards 1.0600, with further downside possible. The US employment report will be a critical driver for the next major move in the pair.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Mar

European indices are growing amid the change of economic vector to defense. Inflationary pressures in Vietnam continue to ease.

By JustMarkets

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) was up 1.14%. The S&P500 Index (US500) was up 1.12%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped 1.36%. The White House confirmed that General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis received a one-month extension on tariffs related to the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, easing concerns about the impact on the economy. Investors viewed the move as a potential signal that the administration could negotiate further tariff waivers, which prompted a rebound in the broad market. Traders await Friday’s monthly jobs report after ADP data showed the US private sector added just 77,000 jobs in February, the smallest gain in seven months. Meanwhile, the dollar faced further pressure from a rising euro as Germany’s proposed €500 billion infrastructure fund and plans to overhaul borrowing rules boosted growth prospects in the Eurozone.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly rising on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped 3.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.56% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.40%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.04%. Berlin announced a historic increase in defense and infrastructure spending. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s incoming Chancellor, confirmed that the main centrist parties will create a €500 billion infrastructure fund and amend the constitution to remove fiscal restraints on defense and security spending.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $67 a barrel on Thursday, likely a technical rebound after hitting multi-year lows in the previous session. Some relief came after a US official suggested that President Donald Trump may slap a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports in line with trade agreements. However, sentiment remained bearish due to concerns over the impact of the US tariffs and OPEC+’s decision to increase production. Tariffs and retaliatory measures could slow global growth and weaken oil demand. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that US crude inventories rose more than expected, adding to oversupply fears.

Asian markets rose steadily yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 3.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.34%. China reacted sharply to the new US tariffs, declaring its willingness to wage “any type of war” with the US and dismissing the US fentanyl explanation for imposing the tariffs as a “flimsy excuse.”

The New Zealand dollar climbed as high as 0.573 US dollars on Thursday, hitting a one-week-high, amid improving risk sentiment after the US granted a temporary tariff reprieve to automakers. On Monday, President Donald Trump granted automakers a one-month reprieve from imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. The kiwi was further supported by fresh fiscal stimulus measures promised by China, which signaled increased efforts to boost consumption and protect economic growth amid ongoing trade tensions with the US.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.91% in February 2025, a three-month low, down from 3.63% in January. The slowdown was driven by lower inflation in the service sector. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items, slowed to 2.87% from 3.07% in January.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,842.63 +64.48 (+1.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,006.59 +485.60 (+1.14%)

DAX (DE40) 23,081.03 +754.22 (+3.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,755.84 −3.16 (−0.04%)

USD Index 104.15 −1.59 (−1.51%)

News feed for: 2025.03.06

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Mar

Gold vs. the Dow: The 100-Year Truth Investors Overlook

Source: John Newell (3/3/25)

John Newell of John Newell & Associates shares his thoughts on where the gold market is headed. Newell also updates us on two stocks he has previously spoken about.

For decades, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been hailed as the ultimate benchmark for long-term investing success. Investors, analysts, and financial media constantly praise its performance, often portraying it as the premier wealth-building vehicle. But there’s a catch: unlike gold, the Dow is not a constant.

Over the past century, underperforming companies in the Dow have been quietly removed and replaced with stronger performers. Once-prominent names like Union Carbide and Massey Ferguson were left behind as the index evolved to maintain its upward trajectory. This constant reshuffling ensures the Dow always reflects a select group of thriving businesses, making it seem like an unbeatable long-term investment.

Now, let’s compare that to gold. Unlike the Dow, gold doesn’t change. It has been a store of value for thousands of years, immune to corporate failures, economic shifts, and index rebalancing tricks.

Yet, despite all the noise about the Dow’s strength, gold has actually performed just as well, if not better, over the past 100 years.

The attached chart above illustrates a remarkable reality: gold has kept pace with the Dow over the long run despite being dismissed as a relic by mainstream finance. From its fixed price of $20.67 per ounce in the early 1900s, before President Roosevelt changed the fix in 1933 to $35.00 and prohibited U.S. investors from holding gold, savvy investors responded by doing the next best thing: investing in gold properties north of the border, in Canada’s prolific goldfields. This wave of capital helped fuel exploration booms that led to some of the most significant gold discoveries in North America.

That represents a move of over 10,000%, comparable to the Dow’s ascent, without the benefit of removing underperformers along the way. The narrative that gold is an “old-fashioned” or a “pet rock” investment, while the Dow represents the future, simply doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

This begs the question: If gold has matched the performance of an ever-evolving index, what happens when gold’s true monetary role reasserts itself in an era of extreme money printing, debt expansion, and de-dollarization?

With gold prices at record highs and institutional investors taking notice, we may be entering a new phase where gold not only keeps pace with the Dow but decisively outperforms it.

Update on Goliath Resources (See Previous Article Here)

Goliath Resources Ltd. (GOT:TSX.V; GOTRF:OTCQB; B4IF; FSE) is a junior resource exploration company advancing high-grade precious metal projects in the prolific Golden Triangle and northwestern areas of British Columbia.

The company is on track with a new discovery of a large high-grade gold system at its Golddigger property. The Surebet discovery, previously covered by glaciers and permanent snowpack, has now been exposed and drilled for the first time. The project is located in a world-class geological setting and mining-friendly jurisdiction. The Golddigger property sits on tidewater and has excellent infrastructure, including a permitted mill site in Kitsault nearby.

Significant shareholders include Crescat Capital, Eric Sprott, Rob McEwen, and a global commodity group based in Singapore. Dr. Quinton Hennigh serves as a technical advisor. Since our last article on Goliath Resources Ltd. (GOT.V), the company has exceeded its first price target of $2.25, demonstrating strong technical and fundamental performance. The breakout from its long-term downtrend and the series of higher lows have reinforced its upward momentum. The stock is now advancing toward its second target of $4.10, with an ultimate big-picture target of $11.50.

The company’s fundamentals remain robust, driven by high-grade gold discoveries and increasing investor interest in the junior mining sector. While pullbacks are natural in any bull run, Goliath’s technical setup continues to support further upside, making it a compelling stock to watch in the gold exploration space.

Update on First Nordic Minerals (See Previous Article Here )

First Nordic Metals Corp. (FNM:TSX; FNMCF:OTCQB) is a Canadian-based gold exploration company consolidating assets in Sweden and Finland to create Europe’s next major gold camp. The company’s flagship asset in northern Sweden is the Barsele Gold Project, a joint venture with senior gold producer Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. Surrounding Barsele, First Nordic owns a 100% district-scale land package that includes the Paubäcken and Storjuktan projects, covering 104,000 hectares on the Gold Line Belt. Additionally, in northern Finland, First Nordic owns the entire Oijärvi Greenstone Belt, including the Kylmäkangas Au-Ag deposit, the largest known gold occurrence in the region.

“2024 was a defining year for First Nordic as we laid the groundwork to become a leading gold explorer and developer. Receiving the TSX Venture 50 award is a testament to our team’s execution on driving growth through strategic acquisitions and project advancements, as well as the support of key shareholders and industry partners. Sweden and Finland globally rank among the most attractive, underexplored, and exciting regions for mineral exploration right now. With a strong resource base and a fully funded, extensive drill program on multiple high-potential targets, we are poised for an exciting 2025 as we continue to advance Europe’s next gold camp.”

First Nordic Metals has also shown significant progress, coming close to achieving its first target of $0.70. The stock has successfully broken out of its long-term downtrend, confirming a bullish reversal pattern. Higher lows and increasing volume indicate strong accumulation, setting the stage for continued gains.

With a combined historical market capitalization of approximately $300 million, First Nordic has substantial upside potential. The next targets of $1.25 and $1.60 remain well within reach, supported by improving sentiment in the gold sector and the company’s expanding exploration portfolio.

Are Investors Ready for This Reality?

At $3,000 per ounce, we might just see the public dipping pie plates into gold-bearing streams across this great land called Canada. The stage is set for a renewed gold rush, and those paying attention to the junior mining sector could be positioned for substantial gains.

As history has shown, when the gold market heats up, Canadian junior exploration companies have the potential to deliver exponential returns. Investors who understand this cycle and position themselves accordingly may find that gold stocks offer not only a hedge against inflation but also a path to significant wealth creation in the years ahead.

Important Disclosures:

John Newell: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Source: https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/03/03/gold-vs-the-dow-the-100-year-truth-investors-overlook.html?m_t=2025_03_03_10_37_20

Metals Opinions

05 Mar

Natural gas prices jumped 8%. The head of the RBNZ unexpectedly announced his resignation

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 1.55%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.22%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 0.36%. The US stock futures rose on Wednesday after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a potential tariff compromise between the United States, Canada, and Mexico could be in the works. The comments came after Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico went into effect on Tuesday, along with additional 10% duties on Chinese imports. The measures sparked retaliation from the affected countries, raising fears of an escalating global trade war that could hamper economic growth.

The Mexican peso fell to 20.8 per US dollar, hitting a three-year low, amid escalating trade tensions between the US and Mexico. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico will announce retaliatory measures this Sunday. She emphasized that Mexico has taken significant steps over the past month to crack down on drug cartels and fight the fentanyl trade, saying the US tariffs are unjustified.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly falling on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 3.54%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.85%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 2.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 1.27%. European defense stocks rose in the week after the US announced it was cutting off aid to Ukraine, reinforcing the need for Europe to invest in its armed forces. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled plans to mobilize €800 billion for defense, including €150 billion in loans and an easing of fiscal restraints.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $68 a barrel on Wednesday, remaining near a three-month low, as concerns over OPEC+ production increases pressured prices. The group confirmed plans to phase out production cuts of 2.2 million bpd starting in April, with monthly production increases of 138,000 bpd through the end of 2026. Further pressuring prices was the fact that the Trump administration suspended all US military aid to Ukraine following reports of a potential lifting of sanctions on Russia, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil exports.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose more than 8% to surpass $4.45 per mmbbls/ton, the highest since December 2022, thanks to record LNG exports and higher demand expectations. LNG exports have been on the rise in early March after hitting a record 15.6 Bcf/d in February, helped by new installations at Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.19%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.93%. The Chinese market opened higher on Wednesday. Traders welcomed private survey data showing an unexpected rebound in service sector activity from January’s four-month low thanks to a rise in new orders and overseas sales, as well as stabilizing employment.

The Australian dollar dipped below 0.625 US dollar on Wednesday, reversing a two-day rally despite stronger-than-expected economic growth data. Australia’s economy grew by 0.6% in the fourth quarter, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter and beating market expectations of 0.5%. On the monetary policy front, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted that the Central Bank is closely monitoring the impact of the escalating global trade war on domestic inflation. He emphasized that it is too early to declare victory over inflation and called for a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr unexpectedly announced his resignation today, three years before the end of his second five-year term. Deputy Governor Christian Hawksbee will serve as acting Governor until March 31, when Orr officially steps down.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,778.15 −71.57 (−1.22%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,520.99 −670.25 (−1.55%)

DAX (DE40) 22,326.81 −820.21 (−3.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,759.00 −112.31 (−1.27%)

USD Index 105.55 −0.19 (−0.18%)

News feed for: 2025.03.05

Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:30 (GMT+2);
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 22:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Mar

Gold poised for a rally as support builds from multiple factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold is trading around 2,910 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, pausing after the previous day’s growth. The temporary slowdown comes as rising US Treasury bond yields exert pressure on prices.

Key drivers influencing gold prices

Despite this pause, gold remains near its record highs, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. On Tuesday, the US implemented 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China, worsening the global trade climate and triggering retaliatory measures.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that tariff reductions for Canada and Mexico may be possible in the future, which has slightly calmed market fears but has not eliminated concerns entirely.

Further bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset is the broader geopolitical landscape. The US suspended military aid to Ukraine, while reports emerged suggesting a potential easing of sanctions against Russia. These developments increase uncertainty in global markets, enhancing gold’s attractiveness.

In the near term, market participants are awaiting key US economic reports, including the ISM services PMI and employment data. These indicators will provide further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Recent data suggests growing economic strains, strengthening the argument for additional rate cuts, which would further support gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has formed a growth wave to 2,900. Currently, the market is consolidating around this level. A breakout to the upside is expected, with a target of 2,974 as the next local resistance level. After reaching this target, a correction towards 2,900 could follow. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned below zero but trending upwards, indicating strong bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, gold has already executed a growth wave to 2,900, forming a consolidation range at this level. If the price breaks downward, a correction to 2,880 is possible before another upward impulse begins. A bullish breakout from the consolidation range would open the potential for a direct rally towards 2,974. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line above 50 and pointing towards 80, indicating a continuation of upward momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains well-supported by trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. While a temporary pullback could occur, the broader trend suggests further upside towards 2,974. Market participants should watch upcoming US economic data releases for additional confirmation of gold’s next move.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

04 Mar

Tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods went into effect today. China is imposing retaliatory tariffs

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.48%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 1.76%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 2.20%. The US stocks continued to decline on Monday amid the release of pessimistic economic data, concerns over the imposition of tariffs, and geopolitical disagreements between Washington and Ukraine. The latest ISM report showed that US manufacturing growth in February was stronger than expected, driven by weaker demand, slower production, and higher prices due to tariffs, among other factors. Investors are now focused on Friday’s monthly jobs report for more labor market updates.

The Mexican peso fell to around 20.7 per US dollar, hitting its lowest level in a month, as trade war fears weighed on sentiment after US President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on goods from the country will take effect early Tuesday. In terms of economic news, Mexico’s manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth consecutive month, indicating continued weakness in industrial activity. Business confidence also fell in February, underscoring the gloomy economic outlook. Along with weak labor, inflation, and GDP numbers, the latest data has reinforced expectations that Banxico will further reduce borrowing costs.

The Canadian dollar slipped to 1.45 per US dollar, marking its eighth straight session of losses and hitting a one-month low, as rising trade war fears continued to dampen market sentiment. US President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canadian goods will take effect as planned, saying there is “no room left” to avoid tariffs.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.64%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.09% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) Index gained 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.70%. European leaders met over the weekend and showed consensus on increasing military spending to leverage a potential peace deal in Ukraine and respond to signs of reluctance to coordinate defense with the United States.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $68 a barrel on Tuesday, near a three-month low, as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs against key trading partners took effect and OPEC+ signaled plans to resume suspended production. Beijing immediately retaliated by imposing additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key agricultural products from the US, which will take effect on March 10. That has heightened fears of a global trade war that could hurt economic growth and reduce energy demand. On Monday, OPEC+ said it would start rolling back production cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day from April 1, restoring supplies that have been capped since 2022, adding to downward pressure.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.83% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.34%.

On Tuesday, China imposed tariffs on US goods and other trade measures in response to US President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% from 10%. China’s Ministry of Finance announced 15% tariffs on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, and 10% tariffs on soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, seafood, and dairy products. These measures will take effect on March 10. The new tariffs coincide with the start of a key annual policy meeting in China this week. The country is expected to adopt new stimulus measures to help its economy withstand the impact of the increased tariffs.

The Australian dollar slipped as low as $0.62 on Tuesday, nearing a one-month low, after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting showed policymakers focused on downside risks to the economy, indicating a more dovish stance. The Central Bank also noted weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter inflation data and slowing wage growth. The currency’s fall was exacerbated after US President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China would take effect as planned. Given Australia’s heavy reliance on exports, any disruption to global trade is expected to have a significant impact on the economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,849.72 −104.78 (−1.76%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,191.24 −649.67 (−1.48%)

DAX (DE40) 23,147.02 +595.59 (+2.64%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,871.31 +61.57 (+0.70%)

USD Index 107.56 −0.32 (−0.30%)

News feed for: 2025.03.04

Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

03 Mar

Tariff threats and US foreign policy create uncertainty in financial markets

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.39% (for the week +0.80%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.59% (for the week -1.20%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) is up 1.62% (for the week -3.62%). The latest data showed PCE prices rose by 0.3% month-over-month in January, matching expectations, while the annualized rate fell to 2.5% from 2.6% in December. The report also showed an unexpected 0.2% drop in consumer spending, the first decline in nearly two years, while incomes rose by 0.9%, the biggest increase in a year. Market attention has now turned to US trade policy.

In recent weeks, US tariff threats and doubts about whether its defense commitments will hold up have become the biggest concern for businesses, investors, and politicians. This means uncertainty, and lack of visibility is often associated with business caution when making investment decisions. The postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico supported the assumptions of those who believe that tariffs were a negotiating tactic and may have contributed to the complacency that until tariffs are in place, they are not worth believing in until they are seen. Nevertheless, in late February, when Trump reiterated his threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4, the Dollar Index posted its biggest gain in three weeks and ended February at two-week highs.

After the White House announced a digital assets’ summit this week, President Trump took to the social media platform Truth to explain some of the details, specifically mentioning a strategic reserve that would include XRP, SOL, and ADA. All three “altcoins” rose sharply against this backdrop, pushing the broad market higher over the weekend.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.002% (for the week +0.36%), France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed higher by 0.11% (for the week -0.33%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.58% (for the week +2.91%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.61% (for the week +1.74%).

German inflation was unchanged at 2.3% in February, but the core rate fell to a more than three-year low of 2.6%, while French inflation fell more than expected to a four-year low of 0.8%. Meanwhile, inflation in Italy and Spain accelerated to 1.7% and 3.0%, respectively, in line with expectations. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time on Thursday and signal further cuts amid slowing inflation and weak economic growth.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain, France, and Ukraine are working on a ceasefire plan to present to the United States. Starmer’s Sunday leaders’ summit contrasted with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s meeting at the White House on Friday. Zelensky won the support of European leaders after a contentious White House meeting Friday in which a rare earth metals deal was canceled and Trump told Zelensky to return when he was ready for peace. Starmer also promised to increase military spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027. A cut in US aid could force Europe to take more responsibility for Ukraine’s security.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $70.1 a barrel on Monday, helped by strong data on manufacturing activity in China, the world’s largest oil importer, as well as ongoing tensions between the US and Ukraine that could lead to supply disruptions. Traders were also concerned about Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese goods, raising fears of weakening global demand.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 3.55%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.58%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 2.26%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.49%.

According to experts, if the US imposes 10% tariffs on goods from China, it will force the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to cut rates by 20-30 bps. At the same time, analysts believe that the PBoC will be forced to reduce the rate by 50 bps without tariffs due to weak economic growth. Thus, by the end of 2025, we may see a cumulative reduction in the PBoC rate by 70-100 bps. For Asian indices, this would be a fundamental message for growth.

The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for the yuan’s exchange rate, also benefited from stronger-than-expected Chinese PMI data, while investors awaited potential stimulus announcements from the National People’s Congress in Beijing this week. A private survey showed China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 in January, beating expectations of 50.3 and hitting a three-month high. Domestically, attention turned to Australia’s upcoming fourth-quarter economic growth data due for release on Wednesday, with a moderate improvement expected.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,954.50 +92.93 (+1.59%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,840.91 +601.41 (+1.39%)

DAX (DE40) 22,551.43 +0.54 (+0.0024%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,809.74 +53.53 (+0.61%)

USD Index 107.56 +0.32 (+0.30%)

News feed for: 2025.03.03

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
Indonesian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 Mar

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen Bets Up to New Record High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (35,411 contracts) with the EuroFX (25,995 contracts), the Mexican Peso (14,057 contracts), the Australian Dollar (11,143 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (6,737 contracts), the British Pound Sterling (5,042 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,438 contracts) and Bitcoin (571 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-1,546 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,036 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-1,101 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets up to New Record High

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued boost in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Japanese yen speculator positions have continued their remarkable run of bullish bets since January and increased for a sixth consecutive weekly gain. This week’s rise in speculator bets was by over +35,000 contracts and marks the fifth time out of the past six weeks positions have gained by over +10,000 contracts.

Overall, the last six weeks have added a total of +125,391 contracts to the net positioning and has brought the total net position to a new all-time record high of +95,980 contracts. The previous record high was +71,870 contracts that took place in 2016 and the previous high (before 2016) was in March of 2008.

Japanese 10-Year Bond Yields

The yen exchange rate, despite the record high sentiment, has not exactly shared the same upside as of yet. The yen futures dipped this week by approximately -1 percent but had risen in five out of the previous six weeks. The yen exchange versus the US Dollar remains close to the lowest levels since the 1990’s at the 0.0066 futures price level and the USDJPY currency pair still holds above the major level of 150.00.

The Bank of Japan has raised its interest rate this year to the highest level in 17 years with some forecasts expecting the BOJ to increase it at least one more time. The Japanese 10-year bond yield has been rising strongly as well with the recent yield of 1.45 percent marking the highest level since 2009.

The strengthening speculator sentiment could signal a shift in the views toward the Japanese currency and which could take the currency’s fortunes some time to build upon. It could also possibly be a false start in which an unwinding of the speculator bets would once again put downward pressure on the JPY exchange rate into new multi-decade depths. Either way, this development bears watching.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) leads the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (56 percent) and the Brazilian Real (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (1 percent) and the EuroFX (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (21 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (39.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (41.4 percent)
EuroFX (19.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (38.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (87.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (20.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (23.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (43.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (36.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (54.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.0 percent)
Bitcoin (55.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.3 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (45 percent) and the Brazilian Real (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the EuroFX (13 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-2 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.8 percent)
EuroFX (13.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (44.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (32.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-34.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.1	17.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	58.9	7.0
– Net Position:	15,732	-15,861	129
– Gross Longs:	25,906	6,543	2,808
– Gross Shorts:	10,174	22,404	2,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	62.8	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-3.1	-16.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 25,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	55.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	55.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-25,425	-640	26,065
– Gross Longs:	182,699	362,477	78,634
– Gross Shorts:	208,124	363,117	52,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	81.0	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-16.7	31.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	47.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	44.4	17.8
– Net Position:	4,463	6,186	-10,649
– Gross Longs:	74,089	95,277	24,992
– Gross Shorts:	69,626	89,091	35,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	63.8	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-3.5	10.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 95,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 35,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.2	28.3	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	61.4	10.0
– Net Position:	95,980	-108,945	12,965
– Gross Longs:	171,751	93,060	45,737
– Gross Shorts:	75,771	202,005	32,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.8	-46.1	35.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	84.2	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	32.0	22.2
– Net Position:	-39,460	50,769	-11,309
– Gross Longs:	5,019	81,861	10,235
– Gross Shorts:	44,479	31,092	21,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	82.2	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-9.1	26.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -137,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	81.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.6	37.0	10.2
– Net Position:	-137,906	142,821	-4,915
– Gross Longs:	20,523	261,075	27,768
– Gross Shorts:	158,429	118,254	32,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.9	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-15.9	24.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	56.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	28.4	16.7
– Net Position:	-45,580	52,332	-6,752
– Gross Longs:	50,873	105,108	24,241
– Gross Shorts:	96,453	52,776	30,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	61.1	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-20.8	7.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	79.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	18.9	5.9
– Net Position:	-53,709	55,044	-1,335
– Gross Longs:	13,628	72,094	3,958
– Gross Shorts:	67,337	17,050	5,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	97.7	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	0.5	15.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	49.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	66.8	3.9
– Net Position:	28,730	-26,207	-2,523
– Gross Longs:	70,337	74,354	3,415
– Gross Shorts:	41,607	100,561	5,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	60.7	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-11.5	-1.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	51.1	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	53.7	1.6
– Net Position:	2,378	-3,962	1,584
– Gross Longs:	63,879	77,856	3,952
– Gross Shorts:	61,501	81,818	2,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	45.5	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.4	-37.5	15.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.3	4.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.6	5.5	4.4
– Net Position:	204	-261	57
– Gross Longs:	25,737	1,489	1,480
– Gross Shorts:	25,533	1,750	1,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	56.9	14.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.7	31.4	-9.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Yen, US Bonds, NZ Dollar & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position continued higher and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 44.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 95,980 net contracts this week with a boost of 35,411 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

US Treasury Bond

The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is now at a 97.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 14.2 this week. The speculator position registered 40,912 net contracts this week with a weekly reduction by -6,869 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 94.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 28.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,897 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,193 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 90.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 441,161 net contracts this week with a decrease by -27,563 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level sits at a 87.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.6 this week.

The speculator position was -227,735 net contracts this week with a rise of 18,507 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 1.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -53,709 net contracts this week with a dip by -1,546 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.1 this week. The speculator position was -43,486 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,418 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 12.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,112 net contracts this week with a drop by -14,516 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 14.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -60.5 this week. The speculator position was 171,198 net contracts this week with a reduction by -26,396 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 19.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 8.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,625,773 net contracts this week with a gain of 111,760 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

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01 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Positions led by Copper & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,475 contracts) with Steel (4,618 contracts) also coming in with a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-7,361 contracts), Gold (-7,049 contracts), Palladium (-2,503 contracts) and with Silver (-1,592 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (90 percent) and Silver (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (80 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (42 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (82.3 percent)
Silver (83.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (85.0 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (54.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (71.6 percent)
Palladium (42.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.7 percent)
Steel (89.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.3 percent)

Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (25 percent) and Copper (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.2 percent)
Silver (8.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.1 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (1.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (13.5 percent)
Palladium (1.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.5 percent)
Steel (25.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 268,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.9	14.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	70.3	4.4
– Net Position:	261,625	-288,100	26,475
– Gross Longs:	316,948	71,796	48,803
– Gross Shorts:	55,323	359,896	22,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	18.6	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.2	12.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 52,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.9	23.3	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	66.2	7.8
– Net Position:	52,862	-70,188	17,326
– Gross Longs:	78,469	38,149	30,082
– Gross Shorts:	25,607	108,337	12,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	16.8	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-11.6	18.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.0	5.7
– Net Position:	20,896	-24,842	3,946
– Gross Longs:	104,032	75,169	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	83,136	100,011	13,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	49.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.3	-7.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	18.8	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	46.7	4.3
– Net Position:	16,176	-23,660	7,484
– Gross Longs:	52,850	15,967	11,117
– Gross Shorts:	36,674	39,627	3,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	39.9	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-7.4	42.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	44.9	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.6	9.8	6.7
– Net Position:	-8,134	6,620	1,514
– Gross Longs:	6,692	8,471	2,779
– Gross Shorts:	14,826	1,851	1,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	4.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	51.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-6.3	31.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	58.7	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	0.5
– Net Position:	2,855	-3,034	179
– Gross Longs:	9,630	18,379	348
– Gross Shorts:	6,775	21,413	169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.7	10.7	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-26.2	19.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

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