InvestMacro

Volatility in financial markets is insane. Oil fell to $60.7 per barrel

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.91%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.23%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 0.19%. The US stocks closed mostly lower on Monday as markets reacted to President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with China, including a threat to impose additional 50% tariffs if Beijing does not back down from its retaliatory measures. Volatility rose across all asset classes: stocks, treasuries, and commodities were all buffeted by waves of conflicting headlines, including speculation of a 90-day tariff pause, which the White House quickly denied. The stock fell 20% over the week because of the company’s heavy reliance on China, where tariffs have reached 54%. Base tariffs of 10% on all US imports went into effect on Saturday, and additional duties, including tariffs of 20% on imports from the European Union, will be imposed on Wednesday.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 20.7 per US dollar, nearing a three-year low amid escalating global trade tensions and persistent domestic inflation weighing on the currency. Despite initial gains from tariff exemptions under President Trump’s 10% measures on imports, the peso has been hit after China imposed retaliatory 34 percent tariffs on US goods, adding to fears of a global recession and weakening external demand. The setback has been compounded by growing uncertainty over potential tariffs on US automobiles and deteriorating domestic indicators, including a sharp drop in consumer confidence in March and the ongoing challenge of high inflation.

The Canadian dollar weakened to $1.42, retreating from a recent four-month high, amid growing foreign trade uncertainty and signs of a fragile domestic economy. A sharp drop in crude oil prices to a four-year low has weighed on the commodity-linked Lonnie, as oil remains a key export for Canada. Political uncertainty ahead of the April 28 snap election further adds to risk aversion.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 4.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 4.78%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 5.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 4.38%. European stocks fell for a fourth straight session on Monday, following a global equity sell-off triggered by President Trump’s latest tariff announcements. Sectors such as utilities, retail, insurance, financial services, oil and gas, and chemicals all fell more than 5%.

WTI crude futures reversed previous gains and fell to $60.7 a barrel, at its lowest level since April 2021, after speculation of a 90-day pause in new US tariff policy proved false. Investors remain on edge amid heightened volatility, fearing an escalating trade war could curb global growth and weaken energy demand.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 7.83%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 6.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) collapsed 13.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 4.23%.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.60 on Tuesday after a sharp two-day drop amid improving market sentiment after US President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to engage in trade talks with key partners, fueling hopes of easing global trade tensions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that about 70 countries have approached the White House to negotiate tariffs. However, trade tensions between the US and China remained elevated after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariffs on Chinese imports. Beijing denounced the move as “blackmail” and vowed to defend its interests.

Indonesian consumer prices rose by 1.03% y/y in March 2025, reversing a 0.09% decline in the previous month but falling short of market consensus, which expected a 1.16% rise. This was the highest since December amid a rebound in spending during the Lenten month and ahead of the Eid al-Fitr holiday. Core inflation, which excludes food prices, came in at a 20-month high of 2.48%, below the 2.50% expectations.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,062.25 −11.83 (−0.23%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,965.60 −349.26 (−0.91%)

DAX (DE40) 19,789.62 −852.10 (−4.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,702.08 −352.90 (−4.38%)

USD Index 103.47 +0.45 (+0.43%)

News feed for: 2025.04.08

New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Apr

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses as Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has stabilised around 147.60 following two consecutive days of gains, with the yen now attempting to recoup some of its recent losses.

Key factors influencing USD/JPY movements

Uncertainty in global trade relations remains a key focus for currency markets, heightening demand for safe-haven assets. Recent reports indicate that US President Donald Trump has agreed to meet Japanese officials to initiate trade discussions following a phone call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead the negotiations, underscoring the strength of the US-Japan alliance. Key topics will include tariffs, non-tariff barriers, foreign exchange policies, and government subsidies.

Despite Trump’s openness to dialogue, he has dismissed the possibility of delaying new reciprocal tariffs and warned that these measures could remain in place indefinitely. Domestically, Japan’s current account surplus for February reached a record high, buoyed by rising exports and declining imports, which has provided firm support for the yen.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY

H4 Chart: The pair achieved its local downside target at 144.50 before correcting to 148.12. Following this correction, we anticipate another potential decline towards 143.83. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points sharply downward.

H1 Chart: The pair completed an upward structure, reaching 148.12, and is now consolidating below this level. We expect a new downward wave towards 146.27, with further downside potential to 143.83. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending firmly downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The yen’s recovery reflects ongoing market caution, with technical indicators suggesting further downside for USD/JPY. Investors will closely monitor trade developments and macroeconomic data for directional cues.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Apr

The sell-off in risk assets intensified as tariffs took effect

By JustMarkets

The US economy added 228,000 jobs in March 2025, well above the downwardly revised 117,000 in February and above expectations of 135,000. This is the highest rate in the last three months. Despite the positive Non-Farm Payrolls report, all investors’ attention was focused on escalating trade tensions. At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 5.50% (-7.41% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 5.97% (-8.21% for the week). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 6.07% (-8.43% for the week). The decline in US markets intensified on Friday as China retaliated against President Donald Trump’s imposition of 10% import duties, adding to fears of a prolonged trade war. The S&P 500 Index fell nearly 9% for the week, the worst weekly drop since 2020, and global markets also fell hard. Trump’s tariffs, which will be expanded on April 9, are expected to reduce global trade, and some analysts have warned of recession risk. Over the weekend, President Trump continued to defend his tariff strategy, signaling on Truth Social that he is not worried about market turmoil. He argued that foreign investors are flocking to the US and insisted that his policies “will never change.”

Trump extended the deadline for ByteDance to sell its US operations to TikTok by 75 days, pushing it back to mid-June. The president said more time was needed to finalize approvals, but emphasized that national security issues remain. ByteDance has confirmed it is in talks with the US government, while Amazon.com Inc (AMZN), Oracle Corporation (ORCL), and Applovin Corp (APP) have expressed interest in acquiring the app’s US assets. Any updates on this front could add another layer of volatility to a market already plagued by geopolitical uncertainty.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to $1.42 amid signs of a fragile domestic economy and growing foreign trade uncertainty. Domestically, a loss of 32,600 jobs in March and a rise in unemployment to 6.7% indicate a weakening labor market, dampening the economic outlook. At the same time, crude oil prices — a key support for the commodity-linked Lonnie — fell more than 7%. With the Bank of Canada due to review its policy on April 16, expectations of a continued dovish stance amid recession fears intensified.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 20.5 per US dollar, nearing a three-year low of 20.85, which has been tested repeatedly since early 2025, as escalating global trade tensions and persistent domestic inflationary pressures reduce its appeal. At the same time, lingering uncertainty over Mexico’s potential exposure to US auto tariffs continues to cloud the outlook. Domestically, inflation remains uncomfortably high, complicating Banxico’s policy trajectory as it balances the need to maintain an attractive interest rate differential with the growing need to support slowing economic activity.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 4.95% (for the week -7.24%), France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) fell by 4.26% (for the week -7.32%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 5.83% (for the week -6.08%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 4.95% (for the week -6.97%). European stocks fell on Friday as investors recovered from new US tariffs and growing recession fears. Banks led the losses, plunged 8.5% after falling 5.5% on Thursday, amid concerns about slowing growth. EU officials said Friday that talks with the US were “frank” but warned that the bloc was “ready to defend interests” if necessary.

WTI crude prices fell 7.4% to $62 a barrel — the lowest level since August 2021 — after falling 6.6% the previous day amid growing concerns about a slowing global economy and weakening oil demand. Investor sentiment is increasingly weakened by an escalating trade war, especially with China’s impending imposition of 34% tariffs on US goods. Recession risks and uncertainty over global trade are adding to worries.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 7.30% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 3.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 3.94%. Shares in Hong Kong fell by 9.4% in early trading on Monday, marking a second session of sharp losses and hitting a two-month low. The collapse reflected widespread panic across all sectors as investors fled risky assets amid an escalating global trade war and rising recession fears.

Nominal wages in Japan rose by 3.1% year-on-year in February 2025, up from a downwardly revised 1.8% increase in January, in line with market expectations. While strong nominal wage growth has supported the BoJ’s recent move towards policy normalization, rising global uncertainty clouds the outlook for further interest rate hikes.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.13% in March 2025 from February’s three-month low of 2.91%. The increase was driven by higher inflation in food and beverage services (3.83% vs. 3.31% in February).

S&P 500 (US500) 5,074.08 −322.44 (−5.97%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,314.86 −2,231.07 (−5.50%)

DAX (DE40) 20,641.72 −1,075.67 (−4.95%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,054.98 −419.76 (−4.95%)

USD Index 102.89 +0.82 (+0.80%)

News feed for: 2025.04.07

German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Canada BOC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Apr

Currency Speculators dropped their Bullish Bets before last week’s turmoil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 1st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week (through Tuesday) as just one out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar with a small gain of 1,583 contracts for the week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-13,690 contracts), the British Pound (-9,657 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-7,959 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-5,171 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,602 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,481 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,314 contracts), Bitcoin (-688 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-482 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-427 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

FX Roundup: Currency Speculators dropped their Bullish Bets before last week’s turmoil

Highlighting the COT currency’s data for last week was that the currency bets were overall down before last week’s late-week turmoil on the US tariffs announcement. The COT data is updated each week through Tuesday (released on Friday), so we only get a glimpse to what the speculators & commercials did before the Thursday & Friday selloffs.

The specs reduced their bullish bets across the board last week except for a small uptick in bets for the Australian dollar. The largest decreases were for the Euro, British Pound and the Mexican Peso — which were three currency positions that had been seeing recent speculator sentiment gains and had overall bullish net positioning. The Swiss Franc, the Yen, the NZD and the Brazilian Real saw more modest declines. The Australian Dollar saw a small rise but the overall AUD speculator position remains very bearish at a -76,863 net contract standing at the moment. It is hard to read into any of these moves because they could be and likely to be dwarfed by this coming week’s data and positioning changes.

The price action from last week was obviously dominated by the last two days which saw a giant whipsaw take place from Thursday to Friday. Thursday’s price action had strong bullish jumps for all the major currencies, except for the US Dollar Index, which took a huge hit by over -1.50 percent. The Yen, the Swiss Franc and the Mexican Peso led the way on Thursday with increases by over +2.0 percent each while the other majors saw gains in the neighborhood of +1.0 percent.

Friday, however, was a different story and everything pretty much reversed itself. The US Dollar Index led the way on Friday with a jump by approximately +1.0 percent. The next strongest currency turned out to be the safe haven Swiss Franc — which only fell by about -0.08 percent. The other (normally) safe haven Japanese Yen dipped by -0.32 percent and the Euro fell by -0.84 percent. After that, there was a sea of red with prices dropping for the other major much more sharply — the Aussie experienced a giant drop by -5 percent, the NZD by -3.85 percent, the Real by -3.78 percent and the Peso by -2.80 percent. The Canadian Dollar and British Pound saw declines each by over 1.00 percent.

Next week, to say the least, will be an interesting one after the market digests the recent news, retrenches and re-positions itself going forward. There is considerable risk the trends continue lower like Friday but there is a possibility that like the initial shock of Covid, some markets take a plunge and then turnaround again. Stay alert.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (96 percent) and the Brazilian Real (87 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (62 percent), Mexican Peso (55 percent) and the British Pound (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Dollar Index (21 percent) and the Australian Dollar (22 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (21.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (22.2 percent)
EuroFX (48.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (53.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (56.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (96.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (97.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (14.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (29.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (21.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (87.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.6 percent)
Bitcoin (62.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.0 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (39 percent) and the Brazilian Real (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (19 percent), the Mexican Peso (19 percent) and Bitcoin (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-20.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-16.2 percent)
EuroFX (39.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (49.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (15.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (2.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (34.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (37.4 percent)
Bitcoin (18.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	4.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.7	26.4	9.6
– Net Position:	7,041	-6,397	-644
– Gross Longs:	23,640	1,340	2,164
– Gross Shorts:	16,599	7,737	2,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	81.5	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	21.0	-10.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	56.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	68.9	7.3
– Net Position:	51,835	-82,872	31,037
– Gross Longs:	183,247	379,419	80,132
– Gross Shorts:	131,412	462,291	49,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	53.0	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.3	-37.2	12.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	26.9	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	47.6	13.9
– Net Position:	34,626	-38,790	4,164
– Gross Longs:	104,986	50,320	30,248
– Gross Shorts:	70,360	89,110	26,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.7	46.0	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-19.7	30.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 121,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	31.2	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	75.7	10.1
– Net Position:	121,774	-138,547	16,773
– Gross Longs:	161,566	96,971	48,102
– Gross Shorts:	39,792	235,518	31,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.2	3.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-19.9	18.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,593 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	83.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.6	28.0	19.3
– Net Position:	-42,764	49,769	-7,005
– Gross Longs:	4,143	74,797	10,177
– Gross Shorts:	46,907	25,028	17,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	80.6	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	-2.8	26.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -130,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	84.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	32.5	13.4
– Net Position:	-130,016	143,318	-13,302
– Gross Longs:	17,606	233,760	23,892
– Gross Shorts:	147,622	90,442	37,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	75.1	5.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-3.2	-18.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -75,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	65.3	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	22.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-75,863	79,152	-3,289
– Gross Longs:	26,211	119,373	24,740
– Gross Shorts:	102,074	40,221	28,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	77.1	40.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	11.2	0.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -45,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	81.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.7	24.4	6.7
– Net Position:	-45,048	46,893	-1,845
– Gross Longs:	11,164	66,892	3,613
– Gross Shorts:	56,212	19,999	5,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	86.8	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-7.8	-2.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.2	31.4	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	67.4	3.8
– Net Position:	51,080	-50,125	-955
– Gross Longs:	86,757	43,822	4,295
– Gross Shorts:	35,677	93,947	5,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	48.4	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-19.2	5.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 37,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.2	34.3	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	66.3	1.2
– Net Position:	37,035	-41,050	4,015
– Gross Longs:	69,590	44,065	5,617
– Gross Shorts:	32,555	85,115	1,602
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.4	10.4	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.3	-36.5	15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.3	3.3	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.5	4.5	4.7
– Net Position:	491	-306	-185
– Gross Longs:	23,373	901	1,077
– Gross Shorts:	22,882	1,207	1,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.0	55.8	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-11.1	-28.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

05 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Brent, 5-Year & Wheat top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 1st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Live Cattle speculator level rose to a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 14.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 123,646 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,659 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week after a spot at the 6th most bullish last week. The Brent Oil speculator level is now at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 49.2 this week showing a sharp move higher. The speculator position registered -2,843 net contracts this week with a weekly boost by 3,685 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings after topping the list last week. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 96.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 19.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 121,774 net contracts with a decline of -3,602 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number four (same as last week) in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 88.5 percent score over its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a small gain of 3.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 57,258 net contracts this week with a dip by -3,692 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level currently sits at a 87.4 percent score over its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a strong 34.3 this week.

The speculator position totaled 37,035 net contracts this week with a reduction by -3,314 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing again this week as the 5-Year Bond speculator level dropped to a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,021,677 net contracts this week with a drop of -121,590 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Wheat speculator level now at 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was strong -50.2 this week. The speculator position totaled -102,800 net contracts this week with a decrease by -20,252 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 5.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week while the overall speculator position was -54,300 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,022 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Cotton speculator level is at a 12.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a modest -3.0 this week while the speculator position totaled -41,979 net contracts with a rise by 12,027 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for a second straight week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is currently at a 12.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a positive 8.2 this week. The speculator position was a total of -45,048 net contracts with a decrease by -3,481 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

05 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week (through Tuesday) as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (1,417 contracts) with Palladium (445 contracts) also showing a modest positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-11,362 contracts), Copper (-4,079 contracts), Silver (-3,692 contracts) and with Steel (-1,749 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (89 percent) and Steel (86 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (45 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (70.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.1 percent)
Silver (88.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (93.2 percent)
Copper (61.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (65.0 percent)
Platinum (51.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (48.0 percent)
Palladium (45.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (42.1 percent)
Steel (85.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (93.9 percent)

Copper & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (7 percent) and Silver (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals and are the only markets with positive scores.

Platinum (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-17 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-11.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.2 percent)
Silver (3.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.2 percent)
Copper (7.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.3 percent)
Platinum (-20.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-28.8 percent)
Palladium (-16.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.0 percent)
Steel (-14.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (4.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 238,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 249,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.8	13.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	67.0	4.8
– Net Position:	238,434	-265,061	26,627
– Gross Longs:	327,936	68,875	50,688
– Gross Shorts:	89,502	333,936	24,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	26.9	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	11.2	-2.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,950 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	20.4	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	65.2	7.1
– Net Position:	57,258	-76,405	19,147
– Gross Longs:	85,609	34,641	31,243
– Gross Shorts:	28,351	111,046	12,096
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	9.9	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-4.9	8.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	32.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	45.0	6.2
– Net Position:	30,025	-31,109	1,084
– Gross Longs:	94,101	79,343	16,304
– Gross Shorts:	64,076	110,452	15,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	43.6	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-5.5	-9.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.7	21.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	46.2	5.1
– Net Position:	14,975	-19,437	4,462
– Gross Longs:	49,449	16,976	8,456
– Gross Shorts:	34,474	36,413	3,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	49.4	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	18.4	5.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	45.5	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.2	10.3	6.9
– Net Position:	-7,864	7,036	828
– Gross Longs:	7,964	9,088	2,197
– Gross Shorts:	15,828	2,052	1,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	50.9	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	18.2	-6.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	59.4	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	65.3	0.6
– Net Position:	2,022	-2,082	60
– Gross Longs:	11,344	20,920	286
– Gross Shorts:	9,322	23,002	226
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	15.2	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	15.2	-20.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

05 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week (through Tuesday) as just two out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (12,366 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (5,627 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-121,590 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-92,060 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-53,173 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-44,805 contracts), the Fed Funds (-35,833 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-21,663 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-21,496 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (77 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (72 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0.0 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (16 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (26.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (26.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (63.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (71.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (72.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (70.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (77.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (85.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (58.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (55.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (16.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.0 percent)

2-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bonds (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds and are the only market with a positive score at the moment.

The US Treasury Bonds (-28 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (-23 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (-15 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-1.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-14.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-2.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-14.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-28.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-28.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-22.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-23.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-5.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -149,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	58.6	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	52.0	1.7
– Net Position:	-149,843	132,305	17,538
– Gross Longs:	459,912	1,184,076	50,922
– Gross Shorts:	609,755	1,051,771	33,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	66.1	85.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	3.0	-14.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -851,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -92,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -759,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	60.2	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	51.9	0.2
– Net Position:	-851,283	848,216	3,067
– Gross Longs:	1,242,687	6,104,420	21,116
– Gross Shorts:	2,093,970	5,256,204	18,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	83.5	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	6.0	-3.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -40,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	54.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	50.2	0.8
– Net Position:	-40,327	49,126	-8,799
– Gross Longs:	401,686	664,780	500
– Gross Shorts:	442,013	615,654	9,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	43.6	62.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	16.7	62.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,226,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -44,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,181,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	76.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	48.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,226,391	1,114,768	111,623
– Gross Longs:	544,094	3,010,463	228,193
– Gross Shorts:	1,770,485	1,895,695	116,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	82.1	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-5.4	0.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,021,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -121,590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,900,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	82.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	54.9	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,021,677	1,826,517	195,160
– Gross Longs:	522,974	5,403,429	429,442
– Gross Shorts:	2,544,651	3,576,912	234,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.8	87.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	12.3	19.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -863,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -53,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -810,090 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	75.9	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	60.7	7.3
– Net Position:	-863,263	743,611	119,652
– Gross Longs:	562,258	3,712,025	478,662
– Gross Shorts:	1,425,521	2,968,414	359,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	69.8	88.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	9.2	21.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -105,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	73.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	67.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-105,983	131,932	-25,949
– Gross Longs:	373,869	1,709,712	226,120
– Gross Shorts:	479,852	1,577,780	252,069
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	14.3	96.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	-7.3	25.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -32,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,275 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	72.0	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	75.8	6.8
– Net Position:	-32,648	-70,892	103,540
– Gross Longs:	256,314	1,329,948	229,567
– Gross Shorts:	288,962	1,400,840	126,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.0	18.4	89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.0	13.8	23.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -254,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	82.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	69.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-254,029	222,692	31,337
– Gross Longs:	142,242	1,487,582	176,801
– Gross Shorts:	396,271	1,264,890	145,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	15.4	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	4.0	-1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

05 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week (through Tuesday) as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (35,433 contracts) with Cotton (12,027 contracts), Soybeans (10,898 contracts), Live Cattle (5,659 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,088 contracts), Sugar (1,031 contracts) and Cocoa (323 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-33,502 contracts), Wheat (-20,252 contracts), Soybean Meal (-5,022 contracts) and Coffee (-4,389 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (100 percent) and Coffee (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (56 percent) and Lean Hogs (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Soybean Meal (5 percent) and Cotton (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (56.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (60.7 percent)
Sugar (27.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (27.2 percent)
Coffee (78.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (82.5 percent)
Soybeans (48.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (45.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (48.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.2 percent)
Live Cattle (100.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (94.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (51.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (50.6 percent)
Cotton (12.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.9 percent)
Cocoa (28.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (28.6 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.4 percent)

Sugar & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (24 percent) and Live Cattle (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (1 percent) are the next highest and the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-50 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-39 percent), Corn (-39 percent) and Soybean Oil (-28 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-39.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-29.2 percent)
Sugar (23.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (25.1 percent)
Coffee (-7.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.1 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-27.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-43.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-13.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-14.5 percent)
Live Cattle (14.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (-38.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-33.8 percent)
Cotton (-3.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-7.0 percent)
Cocoa (-9.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-8.7 percent)
Wheat (-50.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-20.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 166,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,502 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 200,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	42.7	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	48.6	9.8
– Net Position:	166,869	-111,384	-55,485
– Gross Longs:	412,771	801,895	128,660
– Gross Shorts:	245,902	913,279	184,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	46.7	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.3	36.0	41.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	49.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	57.4	5.9
– Net Position:	53,073	-71,583	18,510
– Gross Longs:	212,886	441,582	71,472
– Gross Shorts:	159,813	513,165	52,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	71.3	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.6	-22.6	12.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	36.9	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	68.9	3.7
– Net Position:	54,063	-56,663	2,600
– Gross Longs:	67,669	65,549	9,234
– Gross Shorts:	13,606	122,212	6,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	22.9	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	7.7	-8.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	52.9	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	49.9	7.6
– Net Position:	-3,512	25,581	-22,069
– Gross Longs:	158,653	451,514	43,113
– Gross Shorts:	162,165	425,933	65,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	52.8	54.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-3.1	25.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 35,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	52.9	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	55.6	4.6
– Net Position:	12,084	-16,338	4,254
– Gross Longs:	127,743	315,806	31,759
– Gross Shorts:	115,659	332,144	27,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	54.8	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.7	28.0	-23.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -54,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	50.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	44.3	5.2
– Net Position:	-54,300	34,382	19,918
– Gross Longs:	108,052	301,211	51,126
– Gross Shorts:	162,352	266,829	31,208
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.1	91.3	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	13.0	-0.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 123,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	26.2	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	50.4	14.2
– Net Position:	123,646	-97,973	-25,673
– Gross Longs:	200,105	106,511	31,867
– Gross Shorts:	76,459	204,484	57,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	3.0	7.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-15.1	-9.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 30,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	36.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	46.6	7.8
– Net Position:	30,477	-27,410	-3,067
– Gross Longs:	94,942	101,264	18,487
– Gross Shorts:	64,465	128,674	21,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	47.3	59.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.9	40.8	14.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	49.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	36.0	4.1
– Net Position:	-41,979	39,267	2,712
– Gross Longs:	70,529	143,531	14,587
– Gross Shorts:	112,508	104,264	11,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	87.2	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	3.9	-11.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 323 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	44.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	64.2	6.4
– Net Position:	18,601	-21,956	3,355
– Gross Longs:	30,747	48,182	10,295
– Gross Shorts:	12,146	70,138	6,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	71.5	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	12.8	-33.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -102,800 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -20,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,548 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	37.4	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	17.8	6.8
– Net Position:	-102,800	95,636	7,164
– Gross Longs:	119,598	182,312	40,256
– Gross Shorts:	222,398	86,676	33,092
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.6	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.2	47.0	41.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

05 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week (through Tuesday) as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (34,340 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (6,489 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,410 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,602 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (540 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-1,826 contracts) with the VIX (-1,367 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (85 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (76 percent) and S&P500-Mini (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (56 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (85.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (86.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (74.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (68.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (56.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (53.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (62.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (70.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (71.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (79.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (74.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (76.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (72.6 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (42 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (25 percent), the Russell-Mini (9 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EAFE-Mini (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (42.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (44.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-6.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-11.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-7.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (8.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (17.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	42.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	40.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-10,358	8,055	2,303
– Gross Longs:	94,853	138,093	29,211
– Gross Shorts:	105,211	130,038	26,908
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	14.8	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.0	-40.5	1.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -19,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 34,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	71.3	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	73.9	8.2
– Net Position:	-19,022	-56,199	75,221
– Gross Longs:	300,366	1,504,785	249,432
– Gross Shorts:	319,388	1,560,984	174,211
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.5	26.5	67.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	5.4	-22.5

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	63.2	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	58.3	15.7
– Net Position:	-2,604	3,625	-1,021
– Gross Longs:	9,846	47,045	10,660
– Gross Shorts:	12,450	43,420	11,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	43.5	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	8.9	-27.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,178 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	54.2	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	65.7	11.3
– Net Position:	15,178	-28,512	13,334
– Gross Longs:	70,420	134,323	41,232
– Gross Shorts:	55,242	162,835	27,898
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.7	22.9	79.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-12.6	12.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	69.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	67.8	6.7
– Net Position:	-17,171	8,856	8,315
– Gross Longs:	70,029	288,403	35,994
– Gross Shorts:	87,200	279,547	27,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.3	29.4	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-4.0	-17.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	69.0	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	69.3	18.4
– Net Position:	-121	-46	167
– Gross Longs:	1,068	9,952	2,817
– Gross Shorts:	1,189	9,998	2,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	26.1	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-18.4	-5.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	85.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	85.5	0.9
– Net Position:	-9,613	721	8,892
– Gross Longs:	49,736	380,093	12,869
– Gross Shorts:	59,349	379,372	3,977
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	27.1	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	-3.3	22.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

04 Apr

New modelling reveals full impact of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs – with the US hit hardest

By Niven Winchester, Auckland University of Technology

We now have a clearer picture of Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and how they will affect other trading nations, including the United States itself.

The US administration claims these tariffs on imports will reduce the US trade deficit and address what it views as unfair and non-reciprocal trade practices. Trump said this would

forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed.

The “reciprocal” tariffs are designed to impose charges on other countries equivalent to half the costs they supposedly inflict on US exporters through tariffs, currency manipulation and non-tariff barriers levied on US goods.

Each nation received a tariff number that will apply to most goods. Notable sectors exempt include steel, aluminium and motor vehicles, which are already subject to new tariffs.

The minimum baseline tariff for each country is 10%. But many countries received higher numbers, including Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), China (34%), Indonesia (32%), Taiwan (32%) and Switzerland (31%).

The tariff number for China is in addition to an existing 20% tariff, so the total tariff applied to Chinese imports is 54%. Countries assigned 10% tariffs include Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

Canada and Mexico are exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, for now, but goods from those nations are subject to a 25% tariff under a separate executive order.

Although some countries do charge higher tariffs on US goods than the US imposes on their exports, and the “Liberation Day” tariffs are allegedly only half the full reciprocal rate, the calculations behind them are open to challenge.

For example, non-tariff measures are notoriously difficult to estimate and “subject to much uncertainty”, according to one recent study.

GDP impacts with retaliation

Other countries are now likely to respond with retaliatory tariffs on US imports. Canada (the largest destination for US exports), the EU and China have all said they will respond in kind.

To estimate the impacts of this tit-for-tat trade standoff, I use a global model of the production, trade and consumption of goods and services. Similar simulation tools – known as “computable general equilibrium models” – are widely used by governments, academics and consultancies to evaluate policy changes.

The first model simulates a scenario in which the US imposes reciprocal and other new tariffs, and other countries respond with equivalent tariffs on US goods. Estimated changes in GDP due to US reciprocal tariffs and retaliatory tariffs by other nations are shown in the table below.

The tariffs decrease US GDP by US$438.4 billion (1.45%). Divided among the nation’s 126 million households, GDP per household decreases by $3,487 per year. That is larger than the corresponding decreases in any other country. (All figures are in US dollars.)

Proportional GDP decreases are largest in Mexico (2.24%) and Canada (1.65%) as these nations ship more than 75% of their exports to the US. Mexican households are worse off by $1,192 per year and Canadian households by $2,467.

Other nations that experience relatively large decreases in GDP include Vietnam (0.99%) and Switzerland (0.32%).

Some nations gain from the trade war. Typically, these face relatively low US tariffs (and consequently also impose relatively low tariffs on US goods). New Zealand (0.29%) and Brazil (0.28%) experience the largest increases in GDP. New Zealand households are better off by $397 per year.

Aggregate GDP for the rest of the world (all nations except the US) decreases by $62 billion.

At the global level, GDP decreases by $500 billion (0.43%). This result confirms the well-known rule that trade wars shrink the global economy.

GDP impacts without retaliation

In the second scenario, the modelling depicts what happens if other nations do not react to the US tariffs. The changes in the GDP of selected countries are presented in the table below.

Countries that face relatively high US tariffs and ship a large proportion of their exports to the US experience the largest proportional decreases in GDP. These include Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, Switzerland, South Korea and China.

Countries that face relatively low new tariffs gain, with the UK experiencing the largest GDP increase.

The tariffs decrease US GDP by $149 billion (0.49%) because the tariffs increase production costs and consumer prices in the US.

Aggregate GDP for the rest of the world decreases by $155 billion, more than twice the corresponding decrease when there was retaliation. This indicates that the rest of the world can reduce losses by retaliating. At the same time, retaliation leads to a worse outcome for the US.

Previous tariff announcements by the Trump administration dropped sand into the cogs of international trade. The reciprocal tariffs throw a spanner into the works. Ultimately, the US may face the largest damages.

About the Author:

Niven Winchester, Professor of Economics, Auckland University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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