Opinions

Archive for Opinions – Page 77

Speculator Extremes: Cocoa, GBP, MXN, Palladium & 2-Year top Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is currently at a 99.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled -0.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 77,894 net contracts this week with a change of 1,406 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The British Pound speculator level is now at a 96.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 36.3 this week. The speculator position registered 58,995 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -4,734 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 92.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 5.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 87,841 net contracts this week with a change of -6,651 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 18.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,142 net contracts this week with a change of -1,853 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Euro speculator level sits at a 86.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 9.8 this week.

The speculator position was 177,230 net contracts this week with a change of -1,602 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,377 net contracts this week with a change of -27 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,146,046 net contracts this week with a change of -26,666 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -44.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -251,634 net contracts this week with a change of -14,005 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,137,851 net contracts this week with a change of 7,638 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Finally, the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.7 this week. The speculator position was -444,625 net contracts this week with a change of -5,228 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions

28 Jul

Week Ahead: US NFP Report May Rock These 3 Markets

By ForexTime

If you thought this was a volatile week jampacked with high-risk events, then just wait until you see what’s in store for the first week of August…

Investors may struggle to catch their breath in the week ahead due to a mashup of key economic reports, more central bank meetings, and a slew of corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world!

The first trading week of August features these scheduled economic data releases and events:

Monday, July 31

CNY: China manufacturing & non-manufacturing PMI
JPY: Japan industrial production, retail sales
EUR: Eurozone Q2 GDP, CPI, Germany Q2 GDP
UK100_m: HSBC earnings

Tuesday, August 1

AUD: RBA rate decision
CNH: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone & Germany Global Manufacturing PMI, unemployment
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing PMI
USD: US ISM manufacturing, job openings
SPX500_m: Pfizer earnings

Wednesday, August 2

NZD: New Zealand unemployment
JPY: Bank of Japan meeting minutes (June)

Thursday, August 3

CNH: China Caixin Services PMI
EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI
GBP: BOE rate decision
USD: US initial jobless claims, factory orders, ISM services
NQ100_m: Amazon, Apple earnings

Friday, August 4

CNH: China balance of payments
EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Germany factory orders
CAD: Canada unemployment
Oil: OPEC+ alliance virtual meeting
USD: US July nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Given the high-quality list of risk events, it may be wise to strap up and fasten your seatbelts.

Our focus falls on the US July nonfarm payrolls (NFP) which could rock global financial markets.

The US jobs data could offer critical insight into the Fed’s next move, especially after the central bank’s recent shift to data dependence. After raising interest rates to the highest level in 22 years in an effort to combat inflation, the Fed has adopted a “wait-and-see” approach for future moves. So essentially, the jobs report has become a critical piece of the equation to determine what the Fed could do at its next policy meeting in September. Note that the Fed wants to see more weakness in the jobs markets which could translate to cooling inflationary pressures.

What are markets forecasting?

Headline NFP number: 190,000 new jobs added to the US economy in July
Unemployment rate: 3.6%
Average hourly earnings: 4.2% rise year-on-year (July 2023 vs. July 2022)

Potential outcomes to the US NFP report

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may fuel speculation around the Federal Reserve raising interest rates one final time in 2023.
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report could support the argument that the Federal Reserve ended its hiking cycle in July.

What are markets forecasting for the Fed’s next rate moves?

19% chance of a 25 basis points hike in September 2023
37% chance of a 25-basis point hike by November 2023
20% chance of a 25-basis point hike by December 2023

Ultimately, these expectations are likely to be influenced by the multiple jobs, inflation, and other key reports published over the next few months.

With all the above discussed, here’s how these 3 assets could react to the US jobs report:

USD Index

Given how the dollar remains sensitive to the Fed hike expectations, we could see some fireworks on Friday.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may fuel bets around the Fed hiking rates one more time in 2023, injecting dollar bulls with renewed confidence. This may propel the USD Index towards 102.32, just below the 100-day Simple Moving Average.
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report could fuel speculation around the Fed being done with rate hikes, resulting in a weaker dollar. This development could see the USD Index slip back below the 100.72 level.

NQ100_m

Expect some action on the Nasdaq 100 which is jampacked with US tech stocks that are sensitive to US rate hike expectations.

A stronger than expected US jobs report is seen boosting expectations around Fed hike down the line. Such an outcome could see the NQ100_m slip back below the 15300-support level.
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report that boosts bets around the Fed’s hiking cycle ending in July could propel the NQ100_m above 15700 with 15947 acting as a level of interest.

Gold

The pending NFP report could be the catalyst zero-yielding gold has been waiting for to breakout out of its current range.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may lead to higher bets around the Fed hiking rates once more in 2023. This development could drag prices back below $1932 with $1900 acting as a key level of interest.
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report may support expectations around no more US rate hikes this year. These prospects could push gold higher towards $1985 and $2000, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

27 Jul

Happy Days Are Here Again

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares a chart analysis of all the HUI index constituents.

Source: Clive Maund (7/25/23)

On Wednesday of last week, the 12th, the precious metals (PM) sector broke strongly higher in response to a dramatic plunge in the dollar, as expected and predicted on the site in the article PM SECTOR update – REVERSING TO UPSIDE posted on the 3rd of this month. This breakout is believed to mark the start of an important and sizeable intermediate uptrend in the sector that should at least lead to very worthwhile gains and, depending on how things play out, could lead to spectacular gains, as the dollar is vulnerable to an unprecedented decline due to the fallout from its unfolding loss of global reserve currency status.

Because the fixed costs affect all larger gold mining companies, the rising gold price tends to benefit all of them simultaneously, which is why they all advance higher like a flock of sheep moving together.

While some junior PM mining stocks can and will make huge gains on the back of the expected major uptrend, the more reliable way to play this uptrend, especially for those of more limited means or for whom safety is more important than the prospect of massive gains, is by investing in large and mid-cap gold (and silver) mining stocks.

This is, of course, because large-cap gold mining companies are more established and stable and thus less likely to fall victim to the vagaries that frequently afflict juniors. Because their costs tend to be fixed, the biggest determinant of their bottom line profits is the gold price, and when gold prices rise significantly, the extra revenue generated feeds straight through to their bottom lines.

This is why, when gold prices trend higher, the biggest gold stocks tend to reliably trend higher too, and because of the high fixed costs, the gains made by gold stocks leverage the gains made by gold itself, which is why they are such attractive investments when gold trends strongly higher in the manner that is expected shortly.

As we can see, the HUI Index has had a normal correction over the past couple of months back to the lower boundary of the large uptrend channel shown, with the correction taking the form of a bullish Falling Wedge that presaged a new uptrend.

Because the fixed costs affect all larger gold mining companies, the rising gold price tends to benefit all of them simultaneously, which is why they all advance higher like a flock of sheep moving together, as alluded to in the article posted on the 3rd, in which Royal Gold and Victoria Gold were highlighted as looking very attractive. This is not to say that you shouldn’t go for selected juniors too, but the larger golds that we are looking at here are considered to be bedrock material for a PM stock portfolio.

The companies whose charts are presented below are the constituents of the HUI GoldBUGS index. The XAU Gold and Silver index is not considered because it includes big silvers, which we are going to look at soon in a separate similar article. A 1-year timeframe has been selected for all the charts because it shows the major uptrend that is still in force back to its origins back in September through November of last year. The constituent stocks are presented in alphabetical order. Due to the number of them, commentary, apart from what is written on the charts, is of necessity brief.

The logical point for us to begin is, of course, with the chart for the HUI index itself, which does not not have volume data. As we can see on it, it has had a normal correction over the past couple of months back to the lower boundary of the large uptrend channel shown, with the correction taking the form of a bullish Falling Wedge that presaged a new uptrend, as was the case with a good number of individual stocks too.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE)

Moving on now to the constituent stocks of the HUI index, we start with Agnico Eagle, which presents a clear and straightforward technical picture of a stock resuming its larger uptrend after a normal correction.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU:NYSE; ANG:JSE; AGG:ASX; AGD:LSE)

The technical picture for Anglogold Ashanti is especially clear and orderly — it hasn’t quite broken clear out of its corrective downtrend but should do soon.

Augusta Gold Corp. (G:TSX.V: AUGG:OTCQB)

While at first sight, the chart for Augusta Gold does not look anywhere near as positive as that for most of the stocks in the HUI index, if we look more carefully, we can see that it is now completing the Right Shoulder of a Head-and-Shoulders bottom that on shorter-term charts is a clear and fine example of one of these patterns and you may recall that we bought it down in the Head of the pattern.

If it succeeds in breaking out of the larger downtrend channel shown, as it should, a sizeable uptrend will be in prospect.

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE)

Although Barrick’s larger uptrend is not quite as robust as some of the other stocks in our list, we can see on its chart that it is already “on its way,” having broken out of the corrective downtrend and completed an intermediate base pattern above the lower boundary of the big uptrend channel and is now embarking on a significant intermediate uptrend that could see it ascend to the top of the big channel and perhaps higher depending on what unfolds.

Compania de Minas Buenaventura (BVN:NYSE; BUE:BVL)

BVN has been in larger corrective phase going back to last November but started its new major upleg earlier than most stocks, following the low late in May, and looks like it is limbering up to take out the strong resistance level shown, and given the now positive outlook for the sector over coming months it shouldn’t have much trouble overcoming it and of course, once it does, we can expect its rate of advance to accelerate, taking it to the upper boundary of the large channel as a minimum objective.

Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD:TSX; EGO:NYSE)

Last week, after completing an intermediate base area above the support of the lower rail of its major uptrend channel, Eldorado broke higher to commence its next major upleg.

If it ascends to the upper boundary of this channel again, considered very possible, it will result in worthwhile gains from here.

Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI:NYSE; GFI:JSE)

Gold Fields is looking really strong here. Last week it broke out of the corrective downtrend that was notably shallow compared to the powerful upleg that preceded it, so the larger uptrend appears to be accelerating.

This is bullish and means that the next upleg now starting is likely to be big too.

Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY:NYSE; HAR:JSE)

Harmony presents an especially pleasing picture of a fine and orderly uptrend with the next major upleg just getting started. The one disharmonious aspect is the weak Accumulation line up to now.

However, given the favorable look of the charts for other stocks, it should move up with them, and ideally, the Accumulation line improves when it does.

IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG:TSX; IAG:NYSE)

Even though IAMGOLD made new highs in May, all of the action from the January peak looks like a running or upsloping correction to the powerful runup from late September through late January that saw the stock almost triple in value.

Such upsloping corrections are very bullish, and given the now favorable outlook for the sector, it means that another really powerful upleg is probably in the works that is believed to have just started.

Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE)

Old Warhorse Kinross is looking pretty good here. The correction from early May to the steep recovery runup from the March lows has been shallow, and the price has already broken clear of it to start the next upleg.

This upleg should take it up the top of the large channel shown and possibly higher.

Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE)

Newmont has underperformed the sector in recent months, and its larger trend remains neutral at this point, although it should continue to rally with the sector.

However, on opportunity cost grounds, it is considered best to avoid it in favor of the many gold stocks with more robust charts.

New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT)

New Gold is looking good here. Its robust breakout from its corrective downtrend channel last week took it well clear of this channel, and it is now on course to run at the top of the large uptrend channel shown, which will result in good gains from the current price.

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX)

Royal Gold is one of the two large gold stocks that we went for a couple of weeks ago (three if you include Augusta Gold), the other being Victoria Gold which is not included here because it’s not a constituent of the HUI index.

Royal Gold makes quite big percentage gains in a relatively short space of time when it’s in the mood, and it looks like it’s in the mood now, having broken out of the corrective downtrend to begin a major upleg that should see it run to the upper boundary of the large uptrend channel shown.

With reference to the title given to this article that includes the phrase “happy days are here again,” some of you may be in the mood to celebrate, and you can join in by following this link to the original song “Happy Days Are Here Again,” although it is doubtful if even some clivemaund.com subscribers are old enough to remember when it was first aired.

_{Posted on CliveMaund.com at 3.38 pm EDT on July 16, 2023.}

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Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Barrick Gold Corp.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

CliveMaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Metals Opinions

26 Jul

Fed Meeting: Powell will talk tough to spook markets

By George Prior

Federal Reserve policymakers will raise interest rates today and Chair Jerome Powell will talk tough to intentionally spook the markets, predicts the CEO of one of the world’s largest financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The prediction from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes ahead of the Fed’s latest interest rate policy decision and press conference planned for Wednesday afternoon (ET).

He comments: “Following a pause last time, we expect officials at the US central bank will raise rates again today, taking them to their highest level in 22 years.

“The FOMC, we believe, will raise rates .25, to the 5.25% to 5.5% range, which will be the eleventh hike since early 2022 as it continues its battle against inflation.”

The deVere CEO continues: “The markets have priced-in a rate rise today. What investors will be focusing on is the press conference after the meeting, as they look for any hints about future policy path.

“We expect Chair Jerome Powell will talk tough at this meeting, warning the fight against inflation is not done, that CPI is still way off target, and how this damages the economy.

“He’s right of course. But much of this will be ‘theatre’ in order to intentionally spook the markets.

“The war against inflation is being gradually won, but officials at the Fed will not want markets ‘to get ahead of themselves’, become complacent, and make their job of bringing down the rate of price growth harder.

“They’ll want to indicate that things are getting better, but on the other hand, they don’t want to suggest that they’re done with raising rates yet. It’s a fine line in communication.”

After the latest US CPI came in lighter than economists predicted earlier this month, the deVere CEO is urging the Fed not to raise interest rates past the one that is expected today.

“Investors are increasingly concerned that the Federal Reserve could, with further hikes, overtighten and that could steer the US economy into a major recession. The central bank must maintain the broader picture, not focus on a narrow set of metrics.

“Overdoing the hikes, could not only trigger a US, but a global recession.

“The time lag for monetary policies is incredibly lengthy. It takes around 18 months for the full effect of rate hikes to make their way into the economy.

“We’re now starting to see the drag effects on the US economy with households and businesses becoming considerably more prudent.”

The Fed is expected to announce its July policy decision at 2pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a 2.30 pm press conference with Chair Jerome Powell.

Ahead of the meeting and press conference Nigel Green concludes: “We expect Chair Powell will do his best Tough Guy act in order not to let the markets rip higher.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

26 Jul

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Calm Before Fed Storm?

By ForexTime

USD shaky ahead of Fed
USDJPY pressured below 141
SPX500_m preparing to breakout?
NQ100_m still in uptrend
Gold climbs beyond $1970

An air of tension settled over financial markets on Wednesday as investors braced for the pivotal Federal Reserve rate decision.

Global equities struggled for direction amid the growing caution, with European shares and US futures mixed as investors turned to the sidelines. Although the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points today, the key question is whether this will be the hike that concludes its aggressive campaign against inflation. Whatever the outcome of today’s policy meeting, it has the potential to rock financial markets.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on ahead of the Fed decision:

Dollar shaky and vulnerable

The dollar has weakened against all G10 currencies this morning, with prices testing the 101.10 level. As discussed throughout the week, the pending Fed decision is likely to heavily influence the dollar’s short to medium-term outlook. A strong breakdown below 101.10 may open the doors towards 100.72 and 100.00. Should prices push back above 101.50, the next key level of interest can be found at 102.35.

EURUSD rebound or breakdown?

After rebounding from the 1.1032 region yesterday, the euro has extended gains this morning with bulls eyeing 1.1090. A solid breakout above this point may re-open a path back towards 1.12750. Should prices slip back below 1.1032, bears may target 1.0950.

GBPUSD to resume uptrend?

Wednesday’s strong bullish daily candle could be early signs of GBPUSD bulls returning to the scene. Indeed, prices remain in a bullish trend with the MACD trading to the upside. A move towards 1.3000 could be on the cards if 1.2810 proves to be reliable support. Alternatively, a break below this point may trigger a selloff toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average.

USDJPY pressured below 141.00

USDJPY bears seem to be slowly creeping back into the scene, especially after prices broke through the 141.00 level. Dollar weakness could drag the currency pair towards 138.80 and 138.00, respectively. If prices can push back above 141.00, bulls could challenge 141.90 once again.

SPX500_m breakout alert?

Expect the SPX500_m to be rocked by earnings releases from the largest companies in the world. The index remains bullish on the daily charts with resistance found at 4580. A strong breakout and daily close above this point could trigger a move toward 4640. Sustained weakness below 4580 could see prices test 4500 and 4463.

NQ100_m still in uptrend

Our trade of the week remains in an uptrend on the daily charts. A strong move above 15700 could inspire a move towards 15947. Should prices slip back under 15300, the selloff may take the index towards 14965.

Gold gearing to push higher?

After kicking off the week on a rocky note, gold bulls seem to have their footing with prices trading above the sticky $1960 level. Should this rebound build momentum, this could take the precious metal towards $1985 and $2000. On the other hand, a decline back below $1955 may see prices test $1940 and $1932.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Jul

Trade Of The Week: NQ100_m In Focus As Rebalancing Kicks In

By ForexTime

If you have an appetite for volatility, then keep a close eye on the NQ100_m!

This could be a wild week for the index thanks to high-risk events ranging from a special rebalancing which takes effect today, to Big Tech earnings and the major Fed decision.

Despite the technical pullback witnessed last week, the NQ100_m which tracks the underlying Nasdaq 100 index remains a bullish trend.

The low down….

Nasdaq 100 bulls have been on a tear this year, turbocharged by the AI mania that gravitated investors to a handful of big tech names.

Before prices tumbled last Thursday, the index was up almost 45% year-to-date!

Indeed, these gains have been powered by the ‘Magnificent Seven’ known as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla whose combined weightings represented 55% of the index. In an effort, to limit the overwhelming influence of these tech titans, a special rebalancing will kick into effect before markets open today which will reduce the weightings from 55% to 44%. This development has the potential to spark some fresh action on the Nasdaq 100 as funds worth hundreds of billions of dollars move their allocation to mirror the new weightings.

The week ahead

We could see some more heightened volatility for the NQ100_m due to earnings from Big Tech companies this week.

Earnings from the likes of Microsoft and Alphabet on Tuesday 25th, and Meta on Wednesday 26th will the under the spotlight. When factoring how these Tech companies are within the top 5 holdings and account for roughly 16% of the Nasdaq 100 Index, their results could influence the index. Ultimately, a positive set of earnings may stimulate risk appetite, propelling the NQ100_m higher. Should earnings disappoint, this could drag prices closer to the 15300 support level – resulting in a potential breakdown.

Fed rate decision…

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

However, the question is whether this will be the hike that concludes the central bank’s aggressive hiking cycle. Much attention will be directed to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference for fresh clues on future monetary policy.

It is worth keeping in mind that tech stocks remain highly sensitive to Fed hike expectations because their value is based on earnings projected in the future.

Should the Fed signal that more rate hikes could be on the cards, this could drag the NQ100_m lower.
If the Fed hints it’s done with raising interest rates, this may propel the NQ100_m higher.

Technical forces

Nasdaq bulls remain in a position of power above the 15300 level but the Relative Strength Index is flirting with overbought conditions.

Should 15300 prove to be reliable support, prices may rebound back towards 15700 and 15947, respectively. Beyond this point, the next psychological level can be found at 16000. Alternatively, a breakdown below this level may inspire bears to target 14965 and 14670.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

23 Jul

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were a bit lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (38,670 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (26,943 contracts), the British Pound (5,666 contracts), the Brazilian Real (735 contracts) and Bitcoin (694 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-5,317 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,923 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,375 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,304 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,674 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-944 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the strength of this week’s moves in the speculator’s positioning of the Euro and Japanese Yen.

Large speculative Euro positions jumped this week by over +38,000 contracts and reversed a recent decline for the Euro positions in seven out of the previous eight weeks. This gain in bullish bets has pushed the overall net speculator position to the most bullish level of the past nine weeks at a total of +178,832 contracts.

The Euro currency’s strength has been on display over the past few months as the EURUSD exchange rate touched a one-year high this week at over the 1.1300 level. The EURUSD did close the week lower after hitting the one-year high but is now quite a ways off the 2022 low of 0.9508 that was touched in September.

The large speculative yen positions also surged this week by over +26,000 net contracts and gained for the second week in a row. The yen speculator positioning has been quite the opposite of the Euro as the Bank of Japan has maintained a policy of no interest rate increases which has prompted speculators to have large bearish positions in the yen. The speculator position on July 3rd marked the most bearish level since January of 2018 at a total of -117,920 contracts.

The yen positions in the past two weeks have improved though and this week’s gain brings the current bearish position (at -90,239 contracts) under the -100,000 contract threshold for the first time since May.

The yen’s exchange rate versus the US Dollar remains historically weak and in a downtrend in our trend model. The USDJPY exchange rate rose back over the 140.00 threshold this week (US Dollar strength/Japanese Yen weakness) after dipping below that level last week.

This upcoming week will be a potentially volatile week in currencies as the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve will have central bank meetings and announce their respective policy outlooks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,045	37	11,067	43	-11,617	57	550	23
EUR	783,132	80	178,832	87	-229,343	13	50,511	60
GBP	265,766	77	63,729	100	-81,606	0	17,877	93
JPY	230,932	63	-90,239	16	98,195	84	-7,956	37
CHF	43,213	47	-10,211	28	5,927	55	4,284	72
CAD	146,171	23	521	55	-12,991	47	12,470	50
AUD	148,592	35	-50,401	38	51,045	57	-644	51
NZD	39,402	32	-3,626	44	938	49	2,688	82
MXN	238,006	51	94,492	97	-98,239	3	3,747	35
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	48,146	37	33,933	79	-32,196	25	-1,737	30
Bitcoin	15,455	73	-1,161	57	196	0	965	35

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (87 percent), Brazilian Real (79 percent) and the Bitcoin (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (16 percent) and the Swiss Franc (28 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (45.0 percent)
EuroFX (87.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (96.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (55.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (50.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (96.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.0 percent)
Bitcoin (56.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.6 percent)

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (36 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (10 percent), the Japanese Yen (9 percent) and the EuroFX (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-24 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.3 percent)
EuroFX (7.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-23.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (36.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (32.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (9.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (2.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-35.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.8	19.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	47.8	8.9
– Net Position:	11,067	-11,617	550
– Gross Longs:	27,410	7,994	4,193
– Gross Shorts:	16,343	19,611	3,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	57.3	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	5.6	-26.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 178,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	51.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	81.2	5.9
– Net Position:	178,832	-229,343	50,511
– Gross Longs:	264,514	406,328	97,050
– Gross Shorts:	85,682	635,671	46,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	13.0	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-8.6	8.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	28.7	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	59.4	8.2
– Net Position:	63,729	-81,606	17,877
– Gross Longs:	135,269	76,229	39,762
– Gross Shorts:	71,540	157,835	21,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.6	-37.8	31.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -90,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 26,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	73.8	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	31.3	15.6
– Net Position:	-90,239	98,195	-7,956
– Gross Longs:	29,776	170,491	28,148
– Gross Shorts:	120,015	72,296	36,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	83.6	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.6	2.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	42.1	42.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	28.4	32.1
– Net Position:	-10,211	5,927	4,284
– Gross Longs:	6,772	18,183	18,158
– Gross Shorts:	16,983	12,256	13,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	54.8	72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	-1.8	33.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,923 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	50.5	24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	59.4	16.0
– Net Position:	521	-12,991	12,470
– Gross Longs:	33,877	73,833	35,907
– Gross Shorts:	33,356	86,824	23,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	47.3	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.2	-35.0	28.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	57.2	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.7	22.8	14.9
– Net Position:	-50,401	51,045	-644
– Gross Longs:	38,252	84,937	21,539
– Gross Shorts:	88,653	33,892	22,183
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	57.0	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-12.3	25.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	52.4	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	50.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-3,626	938	2,688
– Gross Longs:	13,193	20,654	5,117
– Gross Shorts:	16,819	19,716	2,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	48.7	81.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	-4.5	57.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 94,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.6	44.0	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	85.2	2.1
– Net Position:	94,492	-98,239	3,747
– Gross Longs:	122,811	104,617	8,638
– Gross Shorts:	28,319	202,856	4,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.8	2.9	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-6.2	-15.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.3	14.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	81.0	12.8
– Net Position:	33,933	-32,196	-1,737
– Gross Longs:	36,730	6,793	4,429
– Gross Shorts:	2,797	38,989	6,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	13.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	25.1	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-8.0	-10.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.6	4.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.2	3.4	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,161	196	965
– Gross Longs:	11,846	722	1,657
– Gross Shorts:	13,007	526	692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	63.9	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	53.6	12.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Jul

Speculator Extremes: GBP, Cocoa, 2-Year & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 18th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 35.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 63,729 net contracts this week with a change of 5,666 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.9 this week. The speculator position registered 76,488 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 6,373 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 96.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 7.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 94,492 net contracts this week with a change of -1,674 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 92.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -0.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 104,844 net contracts this week with a change of -3,657 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The VIX speculator level sits at a 90.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12.8 this week.

The speculator position was -40,289 net contracts this week with a change of 10,444 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,119,380 net contracts this week with a change of -47,680 contracts in the speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56.1 this week. The speculator position was -237,629 net contracts this week with a change of -44,936 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,350 net contracts this week with a change of -78 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,145,489 net contracts this week with a change of -89,405 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The speculator position was -439,397 net contracts this week with a change of -6,485 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (27,594 contracts) with Silver (23,570 contracts), Platinum (7,949 contracts) and Copper (7,607 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-78 contracts) and Steel (-169 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	482,104	28	193,348	62	-213,715	41	20,367	31
Silver	146,863	36	43,862	81	-55,983	26	12,121	34
Copper	216,862	56	-3,550	28	-1,054	71	4,604	48
Palladium	16,017	100	-8,350	0	8,837	100	-487	12
Platinum	65,834	54	15,736	52	-19,674	53	3,938	21

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (81 percent) and Steel (72 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (62.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.0 percent)
Silver (80.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (47.2 percent)
Copper (27.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.2 percent)
Platinum (51.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (33.6 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.6 percent)
Steel (72.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.6 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (32 percent) and Copper (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-20 percent) and Palladium (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (7.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.6 percent)
Silver (31.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-1.2 percent)
Copper (19.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.2 percent)
Platinum (-20.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-36.0 percent)
Palladium (-14.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-18.4 percent)
Steel (6.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 193,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 27,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.7	24.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	68.3	5.3
– Net Position:	193,348	-213,715	20,367
– Gross Longs:	263,740	115,498	45,784
– Gross Shorts:	70,392	329,213	25,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	41.4	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-6.0	-5.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 43,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 23,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,292 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	26.4	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	64.5	8.5
– Net Position:	43,862	-55,983	12,121
– Gross Longs:	76,420	38,710	24,540
– Gross Shorts:	32,558	94,693	12,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	26.1	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.9	-26.5	-2.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	41.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	41.8	6.0
– Net Position:	-3,550	-1,054	4,604
– Gross Longs:	67,321	89,488	17,684
– Gross Shorts:	70,871	90,542	13,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	70.8	47.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-21.2	20.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.1	26.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	56.1	4.9
– Net Position:	15,736	-19,674	3,938
– Gross Longs:	38,256	17,254	7,148
– Gross Shorts:	22,520	36,928	3,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	52.8	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.5	18.8	-2.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	61.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.5	6.3	11.8
– Net Position:	-8,350	8,837	-487
– Gross Longs:	3,738	9,840	1,398
– Gross Shorts:	12,088	1,003	1,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	9.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	12.4	6.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	74.2	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	73.6	0.8
– Net Position:	-370	160	210
– Gross Longs:	4,355	17,966	411
– Gross Shorts:	4,725	17,806	201
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	27.5	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-7.1	12.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

21 Jul

Week Ahead: EURUSD set for another wild ride

By ForexTime

Fasten your seatbelts because global financial markets could experience heightened volatility in the week ahead!

Investors will be bombarded with a long list of high-risk events ranging from pivotal central bank meetings, top-tier data from major economies and corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world.

But before we pinpoint what asset to watch out for amid the expected action, here are the scheduled economic data releases and events over the coming week:

Monday, July 24

JPY: Japan Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone & Germany S&P Global PMIs
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMI

Tuesday, July 25

EUR: Germany IFO business climate
USD: US Conf. Board consumer confidence
NQ100_m: Microsoft Corp earnings

Wednesday, July 26

AUD: Australia CPI
USD: FOMC rate decision, US new home sales
SPX500_m: Coca-Cola earnings

Thursday, July 27

CNH: China industrial profits
EUR: ECB rate decision
USD: US Q2 GDP, durable goods, initial jobless claims
SPX500_m: McDonald’s Corp earnings

Friday, July 28

AUD: Australia retail sales
EUR: Germany CPI, Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
JPY: BoJ rate decision, Tokyo CPI
USD: US June PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Indeed, the barrage of high-risk events could translate into fresh trading opportunities across financial markets. However, our attention will be directed to none other than the world’s most popular traded currency, which is set to be heavily influenced by the central bank combo and key reports.

But before we break down the factors that could see the EURUSD end July with a bang, it is worth keeping in mind that the currency seems to be under pressure on the H4 charts. After hitting a 17-month high at 1.1275, bulls seem to be running out of steam with bears greedily eyeing support at 1.1090. The events in the upcoming week could dictate whether prices rebound or sink lower.

Here are 4 reasons why you should not take your eyes off the EURUSD:

Fed meeting

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, taking the upper band of the Fed funds to 5.5%. The question is whether this will be the hike that ends the central bank’s aggressive hiking campaign. Given the mixed US economic data over the past few weeks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference are likely to be closely scrutinized by investors for fresh clues on future monetary policy.

Should the Fed signal more rate hikes down the road, this could inject dollar bulls with renewed inspiration – dragging the EURUSD lower.
If the Fed hints it’s done with raising rates, the dollar is likely to find itself under fresh selling pressure – resulting in the EURUSD pushing higher.

It is worth keeping in mind that traders are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25bps hike next week, with the probability of another 25 bps hike by November’s meeting only at 35%.

ECB meeting

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. Cooling inflationary pressures continue to support expectations around the central bank moving closer to ending its hiking cycle. Nevertheless, President Christine Lagarde is expected to reiterate that the ECB is unlikely to ease anytime soon with the decision in September depending on economic data.

The euro could push higher if the ECB strikes a hawkish note and signals more rate hikes beyond July’s policy meeting. This may trigger a rebound in the EURUSD.
A cautious-sounding ECB that signals a pause in hikes down the line could weaken the euro, pulling the EURUSD lower.

Top-tier data dump

Throughout the trading week, investors will be dished out a platter of key economic reports from the United States and Europe which could rock the EURUSD.

On Monday, all eyes will be on key PMI reports from the Eurozone and Germany. Tuesday see’s the Germany IFO business climate figures and US Conf. Board consumer confidence data. The dollar could be injected with more volatility on Thursday due to the second quarter of US GDP figures and the initial jobless claims report. On Friday, inflation data from the largest economy in Europe will be under the spotlight. This will be complemented by the latest Eurozone economic and consumer confidence figures. To wrap up the week, much focus will be directed towards the June PCE Core Deflator which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Should the pending US/Eurozone print above markets expectations, this may support speculation around rates remaining higher for longer – lending support to respective currency.
If the incoming data from the US/Eurozone disappoint, this could reinforce speculation around the hiking cycle coming to an end – weakening the respective currency.

Technical forces

EURUSD has found itself under selling pressure after hitting a 17-month high at 1.1275. Indeed, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was already at overbought levels with bears wasting no time to attack following the breakdown below 1.1200.

Despite the recent losses, the EURUSD remains in an uptrend on the daily charts with bulls maintaining some control above 1.1032. A technical throwback could be in the process which may see prices rebound back towards 17-month highs in the week ahead. Alternatively, a solid breakdown under 1.1032 may trigger a further selloff towards 1.0950 and 1.0850, respectively.

Zooming out into the weekly charts, prices remain in a bullish weekly channel. However, strong resistance can be found around the 200-week SMA. Should 1.1050 prove to be reliable support, this may provide a foundation for bulls to retest 1.1275 and beyond. Alternatively, a weekly close under 1.1050 may open a path back toward 1.0800.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Opinions – Page 77

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures

British Pound

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Mexican Peso

VIX

Euro

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

2-Year Bond

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

5-Year Bond

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Investors may struggle to catch their breath in the week ahead due to a mashup of key economic reports, more central bank meetings, and a slew of corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world!

Our focus falls on the US July nonfarm payrolls (NFP) which could rock global financial markets.

What are markets forecasting?

Potential outcomes to the US NFP report

What are markets forecasting for the Fed’s next rate moves?

USD Index

Given how the dollar remains sensitive to the Fed hike expectations, we could see some fireworks on Friday.

NQ100_m

Expect some action on the Nasdaq 100 which is jampacked with US tech stocks that are sensitive to US rate hike expectations.

Gold

The pending NFP report could be the catalyst zero-yielding gold has been waiting for to breakout out of its current range.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE)

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU:NYSE; ANG:JSE; AGG:ASX; AGD:LSE)

Augusta Gold Corp. (G:TSX.V: AUGG:OTCQB)

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE)

Compania de Minas Buenaventura (BVN:NYSE; BUE:BVL)

Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD:TSX; EGO:NYSE)

Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI:NYSE; GFI:JSE)

Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY:NYSE; HAR:JSE)

IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG:TSX; IAG:NYSE)

Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE)

Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE)

New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT)

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX)

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on ahead of the Fed decision:

This could be a wild week for the index thanks to high-risk events ranging from a special rebalancing which takes effect today, to Big Tech earnings and the major Fed decision.

The low down….

Before prices tumbled last Thursday, the index was up almost 45% year-to-date!

The week ahead

Fed rate decision…

However, the question is whether this will be the hike that concludes the central bank’s aggressive hiking cycle. Much attention will be directed to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference for fresh clues on future monetary policy.

Technical forces

Nasdaq bulls remain in a position of power above the 15300 level but the Relative Strength Index is flirting with overbought conditions.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

Cocoa Futures

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Mexican Peso

Live Cattle