Opinions

Archive for Opinions – Page 78

Trade of the Week: USDCHF to see 55% more volatility?

Here are some Swiss Franc facts that may surprise you:

CHF is best-performing G10 currency vs. USD so far this year
SNB uses Swiss Franc to help achieve inflation target
Swiss Franc is a safe haven currency
USDCHF sees 55% larger-than-average moves on US CPI days so far in 2023
Blomberg FX model: USDCHF to trade within 0.8645 – 0.8865 this week

1) CHF is the best-performing G10 currency so far in 2023

USDCHF has a year-to-date decline of more than 5% at the time of writing (stronger CHF + weaker USD = lower USDCHF).

The Swiss Franc (CHF) has overtaken the British Pound for the current title, after battling it out for most of July, with the former also boasting of an advance against all of its G10 peers for the year-to-date period:

2) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been allowing CHF to strengthen

This central bank uses the CHF exchange rate as a major tool for controlling inflation.

A stronger CHF means cheaper imports, and also more receipts from its exports, hence Switzerland’s consistent trade surplus.

Fun fact: Switzerland’s watch exports have grown by double-digits year-on-year (>10%) in 4 out of the first six months of 2023.

After over a decade of limiting the Swiss Franc’s strength, the SNB finally signalled in November 2022 that it’s ready to sell foreign currencies and let the CHF strengthen.

NOTE: The SNB exchanges foreign currencies back into Swiss Francs, which in turn drives up the value of the latter.

Furthermore, the SNB has maintained its willingness to keep hiking rates.

Such hawkish rhetoric comes despite inflation already falling within the central bank’s 0% – 2% CPI target range (Switzerland’s July CPI = 1.6%).

However, the SNB appears concerned that inflation may make a comeback later this year, hence expectations for another rate hike.

At the time of writing, overnight index swaps are pointing to a 60% chance that the SNB could hike by a further 25-basis points before 2023 ends.

NOTE: SNB only makes a rate decision once every quarter. Its next rate decision is due on September 21st.

Recall that, a currency tends to strengthen as markets continue to expect interest rates in that country to climb higher.

Hence, such expectations have aided the Swiss Franc to reach its strongest level against the US dollar in about 8 years.

Back in mid-July 2023, USDCHF dipped below 0.8600 for the first time since the SNB lifted the Swiss Franc’s cap against the euro back in 2015 which saw CHF skyrocketing (and USDCHF plummeting).

3) Swiss Franc is a safe haven currency

A safe haven is an asset that investors buy up with hopes of preserving their wealth in times of heightened fear and great uncertainty.

Consider how the Swiss Franc gained by 2.86% versus the US dollar for the month of March 2023, amid the banking turmoil in the United States as well as Switzerland.

Currently, with markets fearing a recession, that has also helped drive up the value of the safe haven Swiss Franc.

4) USDCHF sees 55% bigger one-day move on day of US inflation data release

So far in 2023, USDCHF tends to move by about 56 pips (between its highest to its lowest intraday price) on average within a single trading day.

However, that average intraday move soars up to 87 pips on the days that the US consumer price index (CPI) is released.

That’s a 55% increase in volatility!

Hence, brace for heightened volatility when the US CPI due is released this Thursday, August 10th!

Currently, economists are forecasting the following numbers for the upcoming US CPI report:

CPI month-on-month (July 2023 vs. June 2023) = 0.2%
Core CPI (excluding more volatile food and energy prices) month-on-month = 0.2%
CPI year-on-year (July 2023 vs. July 2022) = 3.3% (a slight uptick from June’s 3% year-on-year increase)
Core CPI year-on-year = 4.8% (matching June’s core CPI y/y number of 4.8%)

Potential scenarios:

A set of CPI numbers that show US inflation is moderating further, which in turn allows the Fed to back away from a September rate hike, may drag USDCHF lower on the weaker US follar.
Higher-than-expected CPI readings, which stoke fears of a resurgence in inflation that forces the Fed into yet another rate hike next month, may translate into a stronger US dollar and a higher USDCHF.

BONUS FACTS:

At the lower-than-expected US CPI release on July 12th, USDCHF registered an intraday move of 139 pips!
That was its biggest one-day DROP in % terms so far in 2023, and also its 3rd largest single-day move (both up and down) in percentage terms of the year so far.

In other words, if recent history is to be a guide, brace for a volatile USDCHF on US CPI release day.

5) USDCHF likeliest to trade within 0.8645 – 0.8865 this week.

According to Bloomberg’s FX model, there’s a 72% chance that USDCHF trades within the above-mentioned range over the next one-week period.

Here are some further key levels of interest for the immediate term:

POTENTIAL SUPPORT:

21-day simple moving average
0.864 – 0.866 region = lower bound of Bloomberg FX model forecast / area for choppy July price action
0.8600 = psychologically-important level

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE:

0.8800 = psychologically-important number
0.8820 = early-May low
0.886 region = upper limit of Bloomberg FX model forecast / 50-day simple moving average / upper bound of USDCHF downtrend since November 2022

0.89014 = June 2023 low

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 Aug

Week Ahead: US CPI Data To Shape Gold Outlook

By ForexTime

As the countdown draws closer to the key US jobs report later today (Friday, August 4), investors may already be keeping a close eye on what’s to come in the week ahead.

All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data, speeches from some Fed officials as well as earnings announcements that could spark volatility across the board.

Monday, August 7

CNH: China forex reserves
EUR: Germany industrial production
USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speech

Tuesday, August 8

AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business confidence
CNH: China trade
EUR: Germany CPI
USD: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech, US trade

Wednesday, August 9

CNH: China CPI, PPI, money supply, new yuan loans
SPX500_m: Walt Disney earnings

Thursday, August 10

JPY: Japan PPI
USD: July CPI, initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Friday, August 11

GBP: UK industrial production, GDP
USD: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, PPI

The July US Consumer price index (CPI) report published on Thursday, August 10 will most likely act as a key piece of information that determines whether the Fed raises rates one final time in 2023 or not.

When factoring in the Federal Reserve’s shift to data dependence, markets are likely to show increased sensitivity to US economic releases moving forward, including the pending NFP release this afternoon.

Market expectations for US July CPI:

CPI year-on-year (July 2023 vs. July 2022) to rise 3.3% from 3.0% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 4.8% from 4.8% seen in June.
CPI month-on-month (July 2023 vs June 2023) to remain unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% seen in June.

There has certainly been proof of inflationary pressures cooling the US economy with annual inflation slowing to 3% back in June – the lowest since March 2021. Despite CPI forecasted to rise in July, the core inflation print is expected to remain unchanged which could support optimism around the Fed being one step closer to taming the inflation beast. Should July’s CPI report print cooler than expected, this could support the argument around the Fed being finished with rate hikes this year.

How might the US CPI data impact gold?

Gold prices could see heightened volatility due to the incoming US inflation report.

After gaining 2.4% in June, the precious metal has already kicked off the new month on a negative note, shedding 1.6% month-to-date (as of writing). The pending US NFP report in a few hours will most likely impact the precious metal’s outlook ahead of the US inflation print. Given gold’s zero-yielding nature and an inverse relationship with the dollar, it may be set for a wild ride in the week ahead.

Gold prices could shine if the inflation numbers print below market forecast, as signs of slowing inflation strengthen the argument around the Fed being done with hikes in 2023.
Should the inflation figures exceed market forecasts, gold prices are likely to tumble as speculation rises around the Fed hiking rates one more time this year.

Technical outlook: Bears in control?

Gold prices are under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50 and 100, day SMA. The recent breakdown below the $1940 support could signal further downside towards $1900 and $1871, respectively. Should prices push back above $1955, this could open a path towards $1985 and $2000.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions

03 Aug

To fight financial illiteracy, we mapped our money system as waterworks

By Martijn Jeroen van der Linden, Hague University of Applied Sciences

Over the past decade, the super-rich and large corporations have been able to borrow at record low interest rates. This influx of easy money has shored up markets for yacht-backed-loans and securities, dividends, share buy-backs, and merger and acquisition deals.

Meanwhile, those not deemed “creditworthy” find themselves barred from credit, the powerless witnesses of ever surging rents and living costs. Time and again, the financial sector has flooded certain parts of the economy while other parts remained parched. The question is: Why is it so hard to fix the money system?

Two parts of financial literacy

Lack of financial literacy among most citizens is at least one of the causes – though there are competing definitions of the latter. On 7 June, the European Commission (EC) lamented that “levels of financial literacy in the EU are too low”, posing a threat to “personal and financial well-being, households and society more broadly.”

However, here the institution takes a rather narrow view of financial education, limited to personal finance – i.e., teaching people how to manage budgets, achieve saving goals, and understand different financial products. Earlier in March, Sigrid Kaag, the Dutch Minister of Finance, echoed a similarly minimalist view of financial literacy: “By practising how to save, plan and make choices from a young age onwards, children learn how to make sound financial decisions.”

The other view of financial literacy, which we support, entails a far more ambitious understanding of the money system. We call it systemic financial literacy. “In the age of the CDS and CDO, most of us are financial illiterates”, wrote US financial journalist Matt Taibbi in 2009, referring to the complex financial products that triggered the Great Recession. Fast forward fourteen years later, and most of us remain unfamiliar with the jargon of economists, bankers and tax experts. As in 2009, today’s democracies continue to be divided into what Taibbi describes as a “two-tiered state, one with plugged-in financial bureaucrats above and clueless customers below.”

With this in mind, we believe any project seeking to boost financial literacy ought to educate us on the roles of a central bank, but also payment infrastructure, the tax regime, and the investment of our pension savings. A number of questions ought to be raised, too, to this end: What do we consider public utilities? Which financial services can better be assigned to private companies? Who gets the power to create and allocate new money – and for what purposes? To answer these big questions requires not only a deeper understanding of the structures of finance, but continuous political engagement.

The waterworks

Together with cartographer Carlijn Kingma and investigative financial journalist Thomas Bollen, we sought to create a project that would inspire such questions and demystify the world of finance. For two and half years, we developed the “waterworks of money”, an architectural visualisation of our money system that bypasses the economic jargon.

Kingma spent 2,300 hours drawing this map by hand, based on in-depth research and interviews with more than 100 experts – from central bank governors and board members of pension funds and banks to politicians and monetary activists. In an animated video, we walk you through a metaphorical representation of our money system, its hidden power made manifest.

What do we water?

The metaphor of water was critical to the design of our map. Indeed, the financial sector is to the economy what an irrigation system is for farming lands. Just as irrigation helps crops grow, money allows the economy to flourish.

The architecture of our financial irrigation system and the way the sluices and floodgates are operated impacts us all. “What do we water, and what goes dry?” Kaag asked economists, bankers and reporters in June 2022. “Choices made by the financial sector determine what grows and what dies off. That’s where banks, pension funds, asset managers, and insurance firms can make a difference,” she said.

‘The Waterworks of Money’, an architectural map of the money system drawn by cartographer Carlijn Kingma.
Fourni par l’auteur

In our map, the long and complex process of financial irrigation starts at the top of the so-called tower of society, where big money keeps their reservoirs. The world’s largest companies, including big oil, big pharma and big retail, are lodged there. Open the floodgates and money flows downstream, setting the wheels of industry in motion. Salaries make their way through the waterworks, and trickle down into employee piggy banks. In return, everyone goes to work.

Money eventually seeps down into the lowest ranks of society, where the conveyor belt is always running, products are assembled and raw materials, mined. People then spend the wages they’ve earned, often in shops and businesses. Sale revenues get pumped up to the reservoir at the top, and the cycle starts all over again. Or at least, that is the idea.

In reality, trickle-down economics popularised by US president Ronald Reagan and UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher, does not take place. Money circulates mainly between the top of the tower and the financial sector. Moreover, the huge growth of the financial sector over the last decades has dug the gap between the haves and have-nots deeper. The growing quantity of money is driving up share prices, house prices and management fees, but most of the money does not reach the everyday economy in the tower of society – where it can be used for productive investments, generates income and add social value.

The structure of our money system is not a natural phenomenon. The way the waterworks are put together is a political choice. In democracies, higher levels of systemic financial literacy are a prerequisite to change this architecture and make the financial sector serve society better.

This article was co-written with investigative financial journalist Thomas Bollen and cartographer Carlijn Kingma.

Martijn Jeroen van der Linden, Professor of Practice in New Finance, Hague University of Applied Sciences

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

02 Aug

Rate hikes may have slowed inflation in the US – but they have also heightened the risk of financial crises for lower-income nations

By Cristina Bodea, Michigan State University

The campaign to fight U.S. inflation by upping interest rates has been going on for a year and a half – and its impacts are being felt around the world.

On July 26, 2023, the Federal Reserve announced another quarter-point hike. That means U.S. rates have now gone up 5.25 percentage points over the past 18 months. While inflation is now coming down in the U.S., the aggressive monetary policy may also be having significant longer-term impact on countries across the world, especially in developing countries. And that isn’t good.

I study how economic phenomena such as banking crises, periods of high inflation and soaring rates affect countries around the world and believe this prolonged period of higher U.S. interest rates has increased the risk of economic and social instability, especially in lower-income nations.

Ripples around the world

Monetary policy decisions in the U.S., such as raising interest rates, have a ripple effect in low-income countries – not least because of the central role of the dollar in the global economy. Many emerging economies rely on the dollar for trade, and most borrow in the U.S. dollar – all at rates influenced by the Federal Reserve. And when U.S. interest rates go up, many countries – and especially developing ones – tend to follow suit.

This is largely out of concern for currency depreciation. Raising U.S. interest rates has the effect of making American government and corporate bonds look more attractive to investors. The result is footloose foreign capital flows out of emerging markets that are deemed riskier. This pushes down the currencies of those nations and prompts governments in lower-income nations to scramble to mirror U.S. Federal Reserve policy. The problem is, many of these countries already have high interest rates, and further hikes limit how much governments can lend to expand their own economies – heightening the risk of recession.

Then there is the impact that raising rates in the U.S. has had on countries with large debts. When rates were lower, a lot of lower-income nations took on high levels of international debt to offset the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and then later the effect of higher prices caused by war in Ukraine. But the rising cost of borrowing makes it more difficult for governments to cover repayments that are coming due now. This condition, called “debt distress,” is affecting an increasing number of countries. Writing in May 2023, when he was still president of the World Bank, David Malpass estimated that some 60% of lower-income countries are in or high risk of entering debt distress.

More broadly, any attempt to slow down growth to lower inflation in the U.S. – which is the intended aim of raising interest rates – will have a knock-on effect on the economies of smaller nations. As borrowing costs in the U.S. increase, businesses and consumers will find themselves with less cheap money for all goods – domestic or international. Meanwhile, any fears that the Fed has pulled on the brakes too quickly and is risking recession will suppress consumer spending further.

The risk of spillover

This isn’t just theory – history has shown that in practice it is true.

When then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker fought domestic inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, he did so with aggressive interest rate hikes that pushed up the cost of borrowing around the world. It contributed to debt crises for 16 Latin American countries and led to what became known in the region as the “lost decade” – a period of economic stagnation and soaring poverty.

The current rate increases are not of the same order as those of the early 1980s, when rates rose to nearly 20%. But rates are high enough to prompt fears among economists. The World Bank’s most recent Global Economic Prospects report included a whole section on the spillover from U.S. interest rates to developing nations. It noted: “The rapid rise in interest rates in the United States poses a significant challenge to [emerging markets and developing economies],” adding that the result was “higher likelihood” of financial crises among vulnerable economies.

Widening the wealth gap

Research I conducted with others suggests that the kind of financial crises hinted at by the World Bank – currency depreciation and debt distress – can rip the social fabric of developing countries by increasing poverty and income inequality.

Income inequality is at an all-time high – both within individual countries and between the richer and developing countries. The 2022 World Inequality Report notes that, currently, the richest 10% of individuals globally take home 52% of all global income, while the poorest half of the global population receives a mere 8.5%. And such a wealth gap is deeply corrosive for societies: Inequality of income and wealth has been shown to both harm democracy and reduce popular support for democratic institutions. It has also been linked to political violence and corruption.

Financial crises – such as the kind that higher interest rates in the U.S. may spark – increase the chance of economic slowdowns or even recessions. Worryingly, the World Bank has warned that developing nations face a “multi-year period of slow growth” that will only increase rates of poverty. And history has shown that the impact of such economic conditions fall hardest on lower-skilled low-income people.

These effects are compounded by government policies, such as cuts in spending and government services, which, again, disproportionately hit the less well-off. And if a country is struggling to pay back sovereign debt as a result of higher global interest rates, then it also has less cash to help its poorest citizens.

So in a very real sense, a period of higher interest rates in the U.S. can have a detrimental effect on the economic, political and social well-being of developing nations.

There is a caveat, however. With inflation in the U.S. slowing, further interest rate increases may be limited. It could be the case that regardless of whether Fed policy has threaded the needle of slowing the U.S. economy but not by too much, it has nonetheless sown the seeds of more potentially severe economic – and social – woes in poorer nations.

About the Author:

Cristina Bodea, Professor of Political Science, Michigan State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

02 Aug

New US credit rating downgrade further fuels fears of long-term dollar decline

By George Prior

The surprise US credit rating downgrade will trigger short-term volatility for the dollar – but more importantly, will speed-up the long-term decline of the US and global reserve currency, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management companies.

The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as rating agency Fitch downgraded the US government’s top credit rating on Tuesday to AA+ from AAA.

Fitch cited fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that puts at risk the government’s ability to pay its bills.

The deVere CEO says: “Many US analysts are predicting that this surprise downgrade of the world’s largest economy’s credit rating will only trigger short term volatility for the dollar – and the US and global reserve currency wobbled on the news, as should have been expected.

“However, as this is the second major rating agency (after Standard & Poor’s) to strip the US of its triple-A rating, there are serious, legitimate questions to be asked about the long-term trajectory of the dollar.”

He continues: “No one can predict the future, but history unequivocally teaches us that nothing lasts forever. Global reserve currencies have come and gone before. It will happen again.

“Indeed, I believe that we are witnessing in real-time the world beginning to shift away from a dollar-dominated financial system.

“Among other reasons, this is because astronomic levels of debt, and the enormous amount of desperate money printing to monetise these debts, have caused the considerable drop in the long-term value of the currency.”

Earlier this year, Nigel Green was one of the first voices to flag the threat to the US dollar’s dominance as Russia and Saudi Arabia eye the Chinese yuan for oil trades.

He said one of the most significant, but under-reported, outcomes of a three-day summit between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping was that Putin said Russia is now in favour of using the Chinese yuan for oil settlements.

Separately, two deals, announced a week earlier, will see Saudi Arabia’s Aramco supplying two Chinese companies with a combined 690,000 barrels a day of crude oil, bolstering its rank as China’s top provider of the commodity. It was reported that Saudi Arabia was also in talks with Beijing to settle with the yuan instead of the dollar.

“It appears US rivals, led by China, are forming a new major economic bloc. If Saudi Arabia – home to massive oil reserves, which are estimated to be the largest in the world – does move to the yuan, that would lead to an enormous shift in the global economic system.

“Oil is one of the most important and widely traded commodities in the world, and it has traditionally been priced and traded in US dollars. This has given the US dollar a dominant role in global financial markets, as countries that want to purchase oil must first acquire US dollars in order to do so.

“If oil trading were to shift away from the US dollar, it would dramatically reduce the demand for US dollars, which would lead to a decrease in the value of the US currency.”

This could have a number of ripple effects throughout the global economy, including hugely increased inflation in the United States and potentially destabilising effects on financial markets.

Investors should begin to consider hedging against a declining dollar. Diversification across different currencies, investing in non-US assets, using derivatives, and investing in commodities and real estate are all considered effective ways to hedge against potential USD volatility.

The deVere CEO concludes: “While the latest report from Fitch will have a minimal impact, two major credit downgrades, industrial-scale money printing to monetise astronomic debts, and rivals like China and their allies looking to take the financial crown from the US, can be expected to speed-up the long-term decline of the dollar.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Jul

US Dollar Speculators reduce their bullish bets to 2-Year low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,487 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (5,009 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,677 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,780 contracts) and Bitcoin (516 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-6,651 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-5,013 contracts), the British Pound (-4,734 contracts), EuroFX (-1,602 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,962 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-800 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets fall to 2-Year Low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions decreased for a fourth consecutive week this week and the speculators have now subtracted a total of -8,914 net contracts from the overall position in just the last four weeks.

This week’s reduction by -5,013 contracts marked the largest one-week shortfall since December 20th of 2022 (which recorded a decline by -9,021 contracts). This bearishness has dropped the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +6,054 contracts) to its lowest level of the past 108 weeks, dating back to June 29th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been weakening since hitting a cycle high on June 21st of 2022 with a total of +45,010 contracts. Since then, the steady and slow erosion of bullish bets has brought the net position to under the +10,000 contract level for just the second time in the past two years. This latest data is through Tuesday and before the US Federal Reserve’s latest rate increase by 25 basis points that took place on Wednesday. Speculators and market watchers are eyeing the end of the Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign as inflation has been falling across most measures in the US economy.

The US Dollar Index futures price closed higher this week for a second straight week and ended the week right around the 101.40 level. The USD Index had ascended to a multi-decade high of 114.74 in September 2022 and has been on the downtrend since with a current decline (from top to latest price) of approximately 12 percent. The USD Index price fell to a 14-month low on July 18th at 99.22 before staging a comeback over the past two weeks and making it back over the 100 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,514	20	6,054	35	-6,339	66	285	20
EUR	772,408	75	177,230	87	-234,269	11	57,039	70
GBP	237,340	60	58,995	97	-76,984	3	17,989	93
JPY	223,760	57	-77,752	24	86,555	78	-8,803	36
CHF	44,180	50	-8,431	32	3,421	51	5,010	74
CAD	156,395	31	5,530	60	-22,096	41	16,566	60
AUD	146,423	28	-51,201	37	49,561	56	1,640	56
NZD	36,820	25	-949	51	32	47	917	61
MXN	233,549	49	87,841	93	-92,058	7	4,217	38
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	53,443	44	31,971	76	-31,957	25	-14	44
Bitcoin	16,017	77	-645	66	-178	0	823	32

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (97 percent) and the Mexican Peso (93 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (87 percent), Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the Bitcoin (66 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (24 percent) and the Swiss Franc (32 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (35 percent) and the Australian Dollar (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (35.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.4 percent)
EuroFX (86.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (87.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (96.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (23.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (32.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (38.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (51.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (92.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (96.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.9 percent)
Bitcoin (65.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (56.7 percent)

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (39 percent) and the British Pound (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (16 percent), the EuroFX (10 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-13 percent), Swiss Franc (-9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.9 percent)
EuroFX (9.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (7.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (36.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-23.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (36.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-7.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (7.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (9.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-33.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.6	22.6	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	41.0	10.0
– Net Position:	6,054	-6,339	285
– Gross Longs:	21,258	7,796	3,735
– Gross Shorts:	15,204	14,135	3,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	65.7	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	16.4	-26.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 177,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	52.1	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	82.5	5.2
– Net Position:	177,230	-234,269	57,039
– Gross Longs:	250,647	402,626	97,545
– Gross Shorts:	73,417	636,895	40,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.7	11.4	70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-12.5	18.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	31.9	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	64.3	10.0
– Net Position:	58,995	-76,984	17,989
– Gross Longs:	105,498	75,737	41,762
– Gross Shorts:	46,503	152,721	23,773
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	2.6	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.3	-32.7	12.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -77,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	72.0	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	33.3	17.4
– Net Position:	-77,752	86,555	-8,803
– Gross Longs:	30,358	161,166	30,040
– Gross Shorts:	108,110	74,611	38,843
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	77.9	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.4	11.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	38.0	43.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	30.3	31.8
– Net Position:	-8,431	3,421	5,010
– Gross Longs:	7,804	16,787	19,044
– Gross Shorts:	16,235	13,366	14,034
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.3	50.6	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	-6.0	23.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	47.0	25.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	61.1	14.6
– Net Position:	5,530	-22,096	16,566
– Gross Longs:	42,759	73,539	39,413
– Gross Shorts:	37,229	95,635	22,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	41.1	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.3	-35.0	20.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	54.8	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.7	21.0	15.1
– Net Position:	-51,201	49,561	1,640
– Gross Longs:	39,108	80,237	23,735
– Gross Shorts:	90,309	30,676	22,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.4	55.9	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-18.2	33.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	53.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	53.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-949	32	917
– Gross Longs:	12,933	19,664	4,080
– Gross Shorts:	13,882	19,632	3,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.0	46.6	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-11.4	58.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 87,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	45.4	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	84.8	1.9
– Net Position:	87,841	-92,058	4,217
– Gross Longs:	117,732	106,061	8,608
– Gross Shorts:	29,891	198,119	4,391
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.8	6.5	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	0.4	-61.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	20.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	80.5	9.5
– Net Position:	31,971	-31,957	-14
– Gross Longs:	36,345	11,073	5,084
– Gross Shorts:	4,374	43,030	5,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	25.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-9.2	13.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.6	2.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.6	3.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-645	-178	823
– Gross Longs:	11,941	422	1,503
– Gross Shorts:	12,586	600	680
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	49.5	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	38.9	8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was just Copper with a weekly rise of 4,709 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-19,709 contracts), Silver (-6,937 contracts), Steel (-1,356 contracts), Platinum (-249 contracts) and Palladium (-27 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	476,176	25	173,639	53	-198,210	47	24,571	42
Silver	146,898	36	36,925	71	-49,718	34	12,793	37
Copper	234,713	70	1,159	32	-3,904	68	2,745	36
Palladium	16,760	100	-8,377	0	8,899	100	-522	10
Platinum	64,197	48	15,487	51	-20,441	51	4,954	34

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (53.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.2 percent)
Silver (70.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (80.8 percent)
Copper (31.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.8 percent)
Platinum (51.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.9 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.2 percent)
Steel (68.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.1 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (19 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-10 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.8 percent)
Silver (18.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (31.9 percent)
Copper (12.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (-15.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.5 percent)
Palladium (-10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.4 percent)
Steel (0.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	26.4	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	68.0	4.8
– Net Position:	173,639	-198,210	24,571
– Gross Longs:	248,229	125,491	47,300
– Gross Shorts:	74,590	323,701	22,729
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	47.4	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-4.7	-3.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,937 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.5	26.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	60.5	8.0
– Net Position:	36,925	-49,718	12,793
– Gross Longs:	72,786	39,197	24,478
– Gross Shorts:	35,861	88,915	11,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	33.7	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-13.6	-10.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	40.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	42.2	5.7
– Net Position:	1,159	-3,904	2,745
– Gross Longs:	73,743	95,140	16,173
– Gross Shorts:	72,584	99,044	13,428
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	68.4	35.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-13.7	15.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	25.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	57.6	4.3
– Net Position:	15,487	-20,441	4,954
– Gross Longs:	36,489	16,506	7,742
– Gross Shorts:	21,002	36,947	2,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	51.2	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	14.2	-4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	61.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.4	8.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-8,377	8,899	-522
– Gross Longs:	3,752	10,346	1,417
– Gross Shorts:	12,129	1,447	1,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	10.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	9.3	-0.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	79.2	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	72.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-1,726	1,641	85
– Gross Longs:	3,242	19,348	276
– Gross Shorts:	4,968	17,707	191
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	31.8	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-0.9	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

29 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Cocoa, GBP, MXN, Palladium & 2-Year top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is currently at a 99.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled -0.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 77,894 net contracts this week with a change of 1,406 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The British Pound speculator level is now at a 96.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 36.3 this week. The speculator position registered 58,995 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -4,734 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 92.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 5.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 87,841 net contracts this week with a change of -6,651 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 18.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,142 net contracts this week with a change of -1,853 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Euro speculator level sits at a 86.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 9.8 this week.

The speculator position was 177,230 net contracts this week with a change of -1,602 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,377 net contracts this week with a change of -27 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,146,046 net contracts this week with a change of -26,666 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -44.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -251,634 net contracts this week with a change of -14,005 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,137,851 net contracts this week with a change of 7,638 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Finally, the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.7 this week. The speculator position was -444,625 net contracts this week with a change of -5,228 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

28 Jul

Week Ahead: US NFP Report May Rock These 3 Markets

By ForexTime

If you thought this was a volatile week jampacked with high-risk events, then just wait until you see what’s in store for the first week of August…

Investors may struggle to catch their breath in the week ahead due to a mashup of key economic reports, more central bank meetings, and a slew of corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world!

The first trading week of August features these scheduled economic data releases and events:

Monday, July 31

CNY: China manufacturing & non-manufacturing PMI
JPY: Japan industrial production, retail sales
EUR: Eurozone Q2 GDP, CPI, Germany Q2 GDP
UK100_m: HSBC earnings

Tuesday, August 1

AUD: RBA rate decision
CNH: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone & Germany Global Manufacturing PMI, unemployment
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing PMI
USD: US ISM manufacturing, job openings
SPX500_m: Pfizer earnings

Wednesday, August 2

NZD: New Zealand unemployment
JPY: Bank of Japan meeting minutes (June)

Thursday, August 3

CNH: China Caixin Services PMI
EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI
GBP: BOE rate decision
USD: US initial jobless claims, factory orders, ISM services
NQ100_m: Amazon, Apple earnings

Friday, August 4

CNH: China balance of payments
EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Germany factory orders
CAD: Canada unemployment
Oil: OPEC+ alliance virtual meeting
USD: US July nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Given the high-quality list of risk events, it may be wise to strap up and fasten your seatbelts.

Our focus falls on the US July nonfarm payrolls (NFP) which could rock global financial markets.

The US jobs data could offer critical insight into the Fed’s next move, especially after the central bank’s recent shift to data dependence. After raising interest rates to the highest level in 22 years in an effort to combat inflation, the Fed has adopted a “wait-and-see” approach for future moves. So essentially, the jobs report has become a critical piece of the equation to determine what the Fed could do at its next policy meeting in September. Note that the Fed wants to see more weakness in the jobs markets which could translate to cooling inflationary pressures.

What are markets forecasting?

Headline NFP number: 190,000 new jobs added to the US economy in July
Unemployment rate: 3.6%
Average hourly earnings: 4.2% rise year-on-year (July 2023 vs. July 2022)

Potential outcomes to the US NFP report

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may fuel speculation around the Federal Reserve raising interest rates one final time in 2023.
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report could support the argument that the Federal Reserve ended its hiking cycle in July.

What are markets forecasting for the Fed’s next rate moves?

19% chance of a 25 basis points hike in September 2023
37% chance of a 25-basis point hike by November 2023
20% chance of a 25-basis point hike by December 2023

Ultimately, these expectations are likely to be influenced by the multiple jobs, inflation, and other key reports published over the next few months.

With all the above discussed, here’s how these 3 assets could react to the US jobs report:

USD Index

Given how the dollar remains sensitive to the Fed hike expectations, we could see some fireworks on Friday.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may fuel bets around the Fed hiking rates one more time in 2023, injecting dollar bulls with renewed confidence. This may propel the USD Index towards 102.32, just below the 100-day Simple Moving Average.
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report could fuel speculation around the Fed being done with rate hikes, resulting in a weaker dollar. This development could see the USD Index slip back below the 100.72 level.

NQ100_m

Expect some action on the Nasdaq 100 which is jampacked with US tech stocks that are sensitive to US rate hike expectations.

A stronger than expected US jobs report is seen boosting expectations around Fed hike down the line. Such an outcome could see the NQ100_m slip back below the 15300-support level.
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report that boosts bets around the Fed’s hiking cycle ending in July could propel the NQ100_m above 15700 with 15947 acting as a level of interest.

Gold

The pending NFP report could be the catalyst zero-yielding gold has been waiting for to breakout out of its current range.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may lead to higher bets around the Fed hiking rates once more in 2023. This development could drag prices back below $1932 with $1900 acting as a key level of interest.
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report may support expectations around no more US rate hikes this year. These prospects could push gold higher towards $1985 and $2000, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

27 Jul

Happy Days Are Here Again

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares a chart analysis of all the HUI index constituents.

Source: Clive Maund (7/25/23)

On Wednesday of last week, the 12th, the precious metals (PM) sector broke strongly higher in response to a dramatic plunge in the dollar, as expected and predicted on the site in the article PM SECTOR update – REVERSING TO UPSIDE posted on the 3rd of this month. This breakout is believed to mark the start of an important and sizeable intermediate uptrend in the sector that should at least lead to very worthwhile gains and, depending on how things play out, could lead to spectacular gains, as the dollar is vulnerable to an unprecedented decline due to the fallout from its unfolding loss of global reserve currency status.

Because the fixed costs affect all larger gold mining companies, the rising gold price tends to benefit all of them simultaneously, which is why they all advance higher like a flock of sheep moving together.

While some junior PM mining stocks can and will make huge gains on the back of the expected major uptrend, the more reliable way to play this uptrend, especially for those of more limited means or for whom safety is more important than the prospect of massive gains, is by investing in large and mid-cap gold (and silver) mining stocks.

This is, of course, because large-cap gold mining companies are more established and stable and thus less likely to fall victim to the vagaries that frequently afflict juniors. Because their costs tend to be fixed, the biggest determinant of their bottom line profits is the gold price, and when gold prices rise significantly, the extra revenue generated feeds straight through to their bottom lines.

This is why, when gold prices trend higher, the biggest gold stocks tend to reliably trend higher too, and because of the high fixed costs, the gains made by gold stocks leverage the gains made by gold itself, which is why they are such attractive investments when gold trends strongly higher in the manner that is expected shortly.

As we can see, the HUI Index has had a normal correction over the past couple of months back to the lower boundary of the large uptrend channel shown, with the correction taking the form of a bullish Falling Wedge that presaged a new uptrend.

Because the fixed costs affect all larger gold mining companies, the rising gold price tends to benefit all of them simultaneously, which is why they all advance higher like a flock of sheep moving together, as alluded to in the article posted on the 3rd, in which Royal Gold and Victoria Gold were highlighted as looking very attractive. This is not to say that you shouldn’t go for selected juniors too, but the larger golds that we are looking at here are considered to be bedrock material for a PM stock portfolio.

The companies whose charts are presented below are the constituents of the HUI GoldBUGS index. The XAU Gold and Silver index is not considered because it includes big silvers, which we are going to look at soon in a separate similar article. A 1-year timeframe has been selected for all the charts because it shows the major uptrend that is still in force back to its origins back in September through November of last year. The constituent stocks are presented in alphabetical order. Due to the number of them, commentary, apart from what is written on the charts, is of necessity brief.

The logical point for us to begin is, of course, with the chart for the HUI index itself, which does not not have volume data. As we can see on it, it has had a normal correction over the past couple of months back to the lower boundary of the large uptrend channel shown, with the correction taking the form of a bullish Falling Wedge that presaged a new uptrend, as was the case with a good number of individual stocks too.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE)

Moving on now to the constituent stocks of the HUI index, we start with Agnico Eagle, which presents a clear and straightforward technical picture of a stock resuming its larger uptrend after a normal correction.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU:NYSE; ANG:JSE; AGG:ASX; AGD:LSE)

The technical picture for Anglogold Ashanti is especially clear and orderly — it hasn’t quite broken clear out of its corrective downtrend but should do soon.

Augusta Gold Corp. (G:TSX.V: AUGG:OTCQB)

While at first sight, the chart for Augusta Gold does not look anywhere near as positive as that for most of the stocks in the HUI index, if we look more carefully, we can see that it is now completing the Right Shoulder of a Head-and-Shoulders bottom that on shorter-term charts is a clear and fine example of one of these patterns and you may recall that we bought it down in the Head of the pattern.

If it succeeds in breaking out of the larger downtrend channel shown, as it should, a sizeable uptrend will be in prospect.

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE)

Although Barrick’s larger uptrend is not quite as robust as some of the other stocks in our list, we can see on its chart that it is already “on its way,” having broken out of the corrective downtrend and completed an intermediate base pattern above the lower boundary of the big uptrend channel and is now embarking on a significant intermediate uptrend that could see it ascend to the top of the big channel and perhaps higher depending on what unfolds.

Compania de Minas Buenaventura (BVN:NYSE; BUE:BVL)

BVN has been in larger corrective phase going back to last November but started its new major upleg earlier than most stocks, following the low late in May, and looks like it is limbering up to take out the strong resistance level shown, and given the now positive outlook for the sector over coming months it shouldn’t have much trouble overcoming it and of course, once it does, we can expect its rate of advance to accelerate, taking it to the upper boundary of the large channel as a minimum objective.

Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD:TSX; EGO:NYSE)

Last week, after completing an intermediate base area above the support of the lower rail of its major uptrend channel, Eldorado broke higher to commence its next major upleg.

If it ascends to the upper boundary of this channel again, considered very possible, it will result in worthwhile gains from here.

Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI:NYSE; GFI:JSE)

Gold Fields is looking really strong here. Last week it broke out of the corrective downtrend that was notably shallow compared to the powerful upleg that preceded it, so the larger uptrend appears to be accelerating.

This is bullish and means that the next upleg now starting is likely to be big too.

Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY:NYSE; HAR:JSE)

Harmony presents an especially pleasing picture of a fine and orderly uptrend with the next major upleg just getting started. The one disharmonious aspect is the weak Accumulation line up to now.

However, given the favorable look of the charts for other stocks, it should move up with them, and ideally, the Accumulation line improves when it does.

IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG:TSX; IAG:NYSE)

Even though IAMGOLD made new highs in May, all of the action from the January peak looks like a running or upsloping correction to the powerful runup from late September through late January that saw the stock almost triple in value.

Such upsloping corrections are very bullish, and given the now favorable outlook for the sector, it means that another really powerful upleg is probably in the works that is believed to have just started.

Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE)

Old Warhorse Kinross is looking pretty good here. The correction from early May to the steep recovery runup from the March lows has been shallow, and the price has already broken clear of it to start the next upleg.

This upleg should take it up the top of the large channel shown and possibly higher.

Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE)

Newmont has underperformed the sector in recent months, and its larger trend remains neutral at this point, although it should continue to rally with the sector.

However, on opportunity cost grounds, it is considered best to avoid it in favor of the many gold stocks with more robust charts.

New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT)

New Gold is looking good here. Its robust breakout from its corrective downtrend channel last week took it well clear of this channel, and it is now on course to run at the top of the large uptrend channel shown, which will result in good gains from the current price.

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX)

Royal Gold is one of the two large gold stocks that we went for a couple of weeks ago (three if you include Augusta Gold), the other being Victoria Gold which is not included here because it’s not a constituent of the HUI index.

Royal Gold makes quite big percentage gains in a relatively short space of time when it’s in the mood, and it looks like it’s in the mood now, having broken out of the corrective downtrend to begin a major upleg that should see it run to the upper boundary of the large uptrend channel shown.

With reference to the title given to this article that includes the phrase “happy days are here again,” some of you may be in the mood to celebrate, and you can join in by following this link to the original song “Happy Days Are Here Again,” although it is doubtful if even some clivemaund.com subscribers are old enough to remember when it was first aired.

_{Posted on CliveMaund.com at 3.38 pm EDT on July 16, 2023.}

_{Sign up for our FREE newsletter}

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Barrick Gold Corp.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

CliveMaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Metals Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Opinions – Page 78

Here are some Swiss Franc facts that may surprise you:

1) CHF is the best-performing G10 currency so far in 2023

2) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been allowing CHF to strengthen

Fun fact: Switzerland’s watch exports have grown by double-digits year-on-year (>10%) in 4 out of the first six months of 2023.

Furthermore, the SNB has maintained its willingness to keep hiking rates.

At the time of writing, overnight index swaps are pointing to a 60% chance that the SNB could hike by a further 25-basis points before 2023 ends.

Hence, such expectations have aided the Swiss Franc to reach its strongest level against the US dollar in about 8 years.

3) Swiss Franc is a safe haven currency

Currently, with markets fearing a recession, that has also helped drive up the value of the safe haven Swiss Franc.

4) USDCHF sees 55% bigger one-day move on day of US inflation data release

That’s a 55% increase in volatility!

Hence, brace for heightened volatility when the US CPI due is released this Thursday, August 10th! ​​

Potential scenarios:

In other words, if recent history is to be a guide, brace for a volatile USDCHF on US CPI release day.

5) USDCHF likeliest to trade within 0.8645 – 0.8865 this week.

As the countdown draws closer to the key US jobs report later today (Friday, August 4), investors may already be keeping a close eye on what’s to come in the week ahead.

Market expectations for US July CPI:

How might the US CPI data impact gold?

Technical outlook: Bears in control?

Two parts of financial literacy

The waterworks

What do we water?

Ripples around the world

The risk of spillover

Widening the wealth gap

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets fall to 2-Year Low

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures

British Pound

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Mexican Peso

VIX

Euro

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

2-Year Bond

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Hence, brace for heightened volatility when the US CPI due is released this Thursday, August 10th!