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Is the Carbon Credit Market Dead?

Source: Streetwise Reports (7/12/24)

We explain carbon credits, cover some of the system’s inherent problems, discuss future market growth and highlight some carbon credit streaming companies working hard to operate transparently.

Last year, scrutiny of the carbon credits/offsets market rose with media exposés on unethical carbon projects and system abuses. Despite issues with the system and harsh criticisms, the market is reportedly gaining traction.

Forecasts call for rapid growth over the next decade due to efforts by countries around the world to reach a net zero carbon status in the foreseeable future.

A Quick Primer

Carbon credits were introduced in 1997 as a way to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Today, their purpose goes further, to help speed up decarbonization by offsetting global emissions.

“We are in a climate emergency, and we need every tool in the box to meet the 1.5 degrees C [global warming] target,” said Annette Nazareth, council chair of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market. “High-integrity carbon credits can mobilize private finance at scale for projects to reduce and remove billions of tons of emissions that would not otherwise be viable.”

Carbon credits allow a company or entity to emit CO2 or other greenhouse gases, specifically one ton of either per credit, according to Investopedia. Though these credits are akin to rations, companies earn them by avoiding, reducing, or removing carbon through a project verified by an independent third party.

As explained by Carbon Direct, “Carbon avoidance is an action that prevents a carbon-emitting activity from happening. Carbon reduction is an action that decreases the amount of greenhouse gas emissions compared to prior practices. Carbon removal is the process of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and locking it away for decades, centuries, or millennia.”

After a project is verified, the company behind it receives the credits. Companies may either use, trade, or sell their credits.

Carbon Cowboys

While the concept is lofty, the carbon credit system has inherent problems. This has dampened companies’ confidence in it, which is reflected in the decrease in traded carbon credits in 2023, reported the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The world learned about one major abuse in 2006, when Gustav Daphne and three coconspirators were arrested for stealing €5−10 billion (€5−10B) from the European Union’s carbon emissions trading system, meant to facilitate transactions between member countries, according to an article by The Guardian. The scammers achieved “the fraud of the century,” the media called it, in just months, by exploiting a loophole in the market’s policy.

According to MIT News, “Several experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) now say that the system could be effective.”

The case of the Kariba REDD+ project in Zimbabwe illustrates two additional issues with carbon credit systems: a lack of transparency and accountability in where revenues from carbon-offsetting projects go and a lack of checks and balances in the verification process.

The Kariba project promised to conserve vast forest areas to sequester carbon and pass on benefits to the community by, for instance, investing in infrastructure and job creation. Reportedly, an independent third party verified the project, and it generated more than €100 million (€100M) from sales of carbon credits to Western companies. Yet only €14M of the proceeds went to the local villages, The Guardian reported. The other €86M went to the project broker/lead and local coordinator for costs and profits.

This very scheme has happened enough around the world, primarily in developing countries, that there is a name for groups involved in nature-based carbon markets just to make money from trading carbon: “carbon cowboys.” Like with Kariba, questions linger about the integrity and value of many projects.

Critics argue that forest carbon schemes often benefit international traders over local communities. More broadly, opponents of carbon credits/offsets claim they do not work and, sometimes, the associated projects harm the planet.

“Scientific studies and investigative have found that a growing number of projects failed to deliver the emission reductions promised,” reported Climate Home News on May 29. “Nongovernmental organizations have also denounced instances of human rights abuse and environmental damage caused by carbon-offsetting activities.”

Notable Growth Projected

Despite the controversy, the carbon credit/offset market is forecasted to skyrocket between 2023 and 2028 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%, according to Market and Markets, even with the expectation that transparency and traceability will hamper its growth. By 2028, the market is projected to reach US$414.8B in value, more than 250 times the US$1.6B it was in 2023. The primary growth driver will continue to be the massive global effort to reach net zero carbon targets.

CarbonCredits.com highlighted Carbon Streaming Corp. as one of its Top 4 Carbon Stocks To Watch in 2024. The company, the first of its kind in the carbon credit market.

“Rising environmental concerns and government support are expected to offer lucrative opportunities for the market players in the next five years,” the report said.

Demand for voluntary carbon markets (VCMs), marketplaces in which entities may buy, sell, or trade carbon credits, is growing. Thus, the voluntary carbon credit market is projected to expand at a 27% CAGR between 2024 and 2032, according to Global Market Insights. During this period, the market value is forecasted to reach US$21.7B, up from US$2.4B.

In the U.S. in May, the Departments of Treasury, Agriculture, and Energy and White House representatives published a joint policy statement that laid out seven principles for responsibly participating in VCMs and ensuring they are effective, fair, and equitable, noted a White House fact sheet.

Carbon Streaming Isn’t Over

While bad actors may have previously polluted the carbon credit market, there are companies striving to operate transparently, and some experts consider the system worth looking into.

According to MIT News, “Several experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) now say that the system could be effective, at least in certain circumstances, but it must be thoroughly evaluated and regulated.”

Base Carbon

One company, Base Carbon (BCBN:NEO; BCBNF:OTCMKTS), is working to set standards for transparency in the sale of carbon credits. Base Carbon is a carbon credit company focusing on carbon capital allocation, project origination, and data transparency tools. According to the company, its primary objective is to allocate “capital directly into carbon reduction projects and carbon development companies.”

According to Base Carbon, “Pledges to lower carbon emissions now cover 92% of GDP and 88% of emissions worldwide. However, emission reduction, capture, and sequestration technologies are not yet scaled to meet these targets, creating a growing demand for quality carbon credits.”

Base Carbon aims to aid in this divide by connecting project developers who need financing and credit buying who may be searching for reputable carbon credits for their individual climate pledges.

In terms of renewing credibility in the carbon market, CEO Michael Costa stated, “Our mission is to simplify the carbon credit economy, and we are working to become the trusted financier within the voluntary carbon markets.”

One of the ways it does this is through data transparency tools. The company’s data standardization frameworks help capture and organize information from initial carbon emission sources. This process transforms raw data into valuable, usable components within the carbon credit ecosystem. By ensuring the accuracy and consistency of project-generated data, the company hopes to build a solid foundation of trust for our investment decisions and collaborative efforts.

You can see Base Carbon’s list of projects in the image below.

While past “bad apples” in the carbon credit space may have put a bad taste in investors’ mouths, Base Carbon is not slowing down anytime soon. As an article from Green Investing notes, “There’s a never-ending list of potential factors that turn people away from the space. This can either be seen as a contrarian opportunity or a reason to look elsewhere. Regardless, Base Carbon is going to continue advancing in the industry.”

The article solidified this opinion by sharing Base Carbon’s upcoming catalysts, which include:

The company will likely become profitable this year (2024).
Base Carbon has 8.1 million credits to be issued from its cookstove and household devices projects, which Green Investing believes could result in US$50 million in revenue.
Announcements about deals to sell carbon credits or get government approval for these sales.
New developments from current partnerships and more potential projects in the works.
More information about the company’s joint investment plan with STX Group to be released.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Base Carbon (BCBN:NEO;BCBNF:OTCMKTS)

	Retail: 65.54%
	Strategic Investors: 16.79%
	Management & Insiders: 10.57%
	Institutions: 7.1%

65.5%

16.8%

10.6%

7.1%

^*Share Structure as of 7/11/2024
Source: Thomson Reuters

Graham Mattison of Water Tower Research also sees promise in Base Carbon, as shown in a May 1 research note. Mattison wrote he saw “continued execution across all projects,” a growing cash flow, and “multiple potential catalysts ahead” for Base Carbon.

He wrote, “The current market cap of Base Carbon is ~US$40 million; the Vietnam project alone will deliver cash of ~US$29.1 million in the next 12 months.”

According to Reuters, 10.57% of the company is with management and insiders.

16.79% is with strategic investor Abaxx Technologies Inc.

7.10% is with institutions.

The rest is with retail.

According to the company, Base Carbon has a market cap of US$46.8 million, US$0 in debt, US$667,391 in cash, and 117.1 million shares outstanding as of May 16, 2024.

Market Watch notes that the company trades in the 52-week range between US$0.2025 and US$0.4520.

Carbon Streaming Corp.

Base Carbon is not alone in its mission to make carbon credits more attractive to the market. Carbon Streaming Corp. (NEO-NETZ; OTC-OFSTF) is also working on changing this perspective as part of a corporate turnaround following a drop in its stock price to CA$0.50 per share from CA$15.

The largest investor in the company, Marin Katusa of Katusa Research, is spearheading the changes. He willingly became a technical and financial adviser to the board at no cost, he said, to benefit all shareholders.

Certain changes at the management and board level were required to make the company a success for shareholders, which in turn will enable more investments to help improve the environment, in my eyes,” he told Streetwise Reports. “I trust the individuals I’ve asked to be on the board fully, and I believe we [the shareholders] are in good hands moving forward.” The new interim chair is Olivier Garret, and the interim chief executive officer is CEO Christian Milau.

Katusa also provided Carbon Streaming’s five-part plan for moving forward:

Go through the existing deals and see what we are dealing with. I don’t have an answer for anyone at this point, but I will within 120 days. I will be involved in the technical review of the projects with the new board.
Immediately meet with all existing employees and figure out who we want to keep and who needs to move on and pursue a new venture. Getting rid of the ridiculous compensation that was taken by certain prior management members has now stopped, and further cuts to G&A will be put into place.
In addition to 1&2 above, we have initiated a search both internally and externally for a new permanent CEO. There are two individuals currently employed at NETZ who did catch my eye as the potential to rise to the occasion, and every person at the firm will be given every opportunity to see if the CEO role is the right one. The culture of the company has already changed immediately after replacing the former CEO, and this is a chance for anyone in the firm to rise from the ashes or move on. Christian and the rest of the new NETZ board have the same “business culture” as my own, as does Alice Schroeder, and that will be paramount moving forward.
Moving forward, when it comes to Voluntary Carbon Markets — I’ll be encouraging Carbon Streaming will adopt my rule from 2022, only invest in the VCM market if there is an offtake in place for the credits. No offtake, no investment in the voluntary market.
We will look at all projects, assets, etc., to return shareholder value.

Unlike the company’s previous practice, Katusa said the board members now will only receive the standard options, no cash, no deferred or restricted stock units, nor any other form of compensation “third-party consultants justify.”

About the new culture Katusa is working to achieve, he commented, “This is a win for the shareholder rights. I am proud of this result. It wasn’t easy, but we got what we needed to give this company a chance to succeed. We live to see another day, and I’m expecting big things.”

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Carbon Streaming Corp. (NEO-NETZ; OTC-OFSTF)

	Retail: 93.52%
	Management & Insiders: 6.46%
	Institutions: 0.02%

93.5%

6.5%

^*Share Structure as of 6/7/2024

Source: Thomson Reuters

On July 3, 2024, the company also announced it had closed its acquisition with Blue Dot Carbon Corp. Blue Dot is a private company with an equity investment in a carbon project developer and certain option rights to invest in future removals (reforestation) projects of its partners.

CarbonCredits.com highlighted Carbon Streaming Corp. as one of its Top 4 Carbon Stocks To Watch in 2024. The company, the first of its kind in the carbon credit market, “expects moderate and then rapid growth of credits in the coming years, peaking near 20 million (20M) credits per year by 2027,” the article indicated. “Its unique business model could help it outperform the competition.”

On June 7, Jack Gilleland of the American Association of Individual Investors gave Carbon Streaming Corp. a Value Score of 62, which, according to the article, he considers good.

According to Reuters, management and insiders hold 6.5% or 3.12M shares of Carbon Streaming. In this category, Ross Beaty owns 2.9%, or 1.39M shares.

The company has one institutional investor, Black Diamond Asset Management Inc., which holds 0.02%, or 0.01M shares.

The rest of the company, 93.48%, is with retail.

Carbon Streaming has 47.97M shares outstanding and 44.85M free float traded shares.

Its market cap is CA$31.51M. Its stock price range over the past 52 weeks was CA$0.46−$1.47 per share.

Pioneer Key Carbon Ltd., A Private Co.

Most of the large carbon credit companies are private. These include Carbon by Indigo, Nori, TrueCarbon by TrueTerra, Bayer Carbon Program, and Nutrien Ag.

Another carbon credit streamer striving to be transparent is Key Carbon. Headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, this private company finances and supports developers of carbon projects around the world and is building a diversified portfolio of carbon credit streams and royalties. Corporations and other entities may purchase Key Carbon’s voluntary carbon credits to help them achieve their climate and sustainability goals.

“We will be a large environmental services company,” Luke Leslie, co-founder and chief executive officer of Key Carbon Ltd., told Streetwise Reports. “We want to do that to service these projects in a way others can’t, with cutting-edge monitoring systems to provide the data to better understand the impact.”

How it works is Key Carbon selectively chooses a carbon project after rigorously vetting its developer. The company pays the developer upfront in return for a portion of future carbon credits, as defined in an exclusive financing agreement created by Key Carbon. It receives the credits once an independent third party, such as Verra, verifies the project. Then Key Carbon sells the credits to corporations or groups that need them to offset their carbon emissions. Key Carbon also continues to support the developer with strategy and operational improvements.

Current partners of Key Carbon include BURN, Africa’s leading clean cooking company, and Worldview International Foundation, a nonprofit organization that has pioneered 680 sustainable development projects in 26 countries.

BURN is a small project with a big impact, in which Key Carbon has invested US$36M. Through BURN, they provide fuel-efficient cookstoves to families cooking on open fires, a practice that has caused 4M premature deaths, noted Leslie. Cookstoves use less fuel, are safer, and free up users’ time.

Key Carbon’s work with Worldview is an example of a higher-value project that Key Carbon has helped fund. This project consists of reforestation of native trees, specifically mangroves.

With Key Carbon’s portfolio, an estimated 41.2 million tons of carbon will be removed or avoided, according to the company’s website.

The types of projects Key Carbon could partner on are numerous, Leslie said, given that “the carbon markets have 200 ways to generate carbon credit.”

As for catalysts, Key Carbon will close a US$15M financing this month, moving it closer to its goal of raising US$100M by year-end, Leslie said. The company is continuing to build out direct sales channels and acquire biodiversity businesses. Also, of course, additional partnerships and project deals could also move the stock.

Carbon Industry Surviving

While so-called “carbon cowboys” may have sullied the name of carbon credits, these three companies, Base Carbon, Carbon Streaming, and Key Carbon, and growth forecasts might be showing that the carbon credits industry is surviving the negative aspects is very much alive, and is expanding.

These companies are working to ensure transparency and efficiency within the companies and to create a sustainable army in the fight against the climate crisis.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Key Carbon Ltd.
Doresa Banning and Katherine DeGilio wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provide services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor/employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Energy Opinions

15 Jul

Keir Starmer: what we know about Britain’s new prime minister and how he will lead

By Mark Bennister, University of Lincoln and Ben Worthy, Birkbeck, University of London

All prime ministers bring their own personality and approach to the job. Each has a different style of leadership, which can shape how things work and what gets done. Herbert Asquith famously summed it up when he said being prime minister is all about “what the holder chooses and is able to make of it”.

When searching for clues as to how Keir Starmer will choose to be Britain’s prime minister, there isn’t too much to go on. When asked directly on a recent podcast, he declared “an inclusive, determined prime minister who will look out for everyone in the country”. This only takes us so far, as it’s rather hard to imagine anyone saying the opposite (except, perhaps, Nigel Farage). But sifting through what we know, we can at least make a start at piecing together the puzzle.

In terms of his personality and approach, Starmer has been described as “methodical, professional, good on detail but lacking in flair”. He is very likely to be what the late MP and historian David Marquand called a “pragmatic operator”. Not for Starmer the visionary appeal or oratory fireworks of a Tony Blair or Harold Wilson. But nor is he simply a “machine politician”.

Starmer comes across as a quiet, experienced man, who speaks of values and of being a socialist (though the public are unsure if he is, or if that’s a good or bad thing). He can justifiably say he has a more authentic working-class background than many of his predecessors.

We do know that Starmer only became a member of parliament in 2015, so, at 52, was a relative latecomer to politics. He has spent the entirety of his political career in opposition. His predecessors, going back to Theresa May, came to the role with substantial experience of being a government minister (though, you may point out, it didn’t do them much good).

Keir Starmer sitting on the House of Commons green benches. — Starmer attends a socially distanced PMQs during the pandemic.
Flicker/UK Parliament, CC BY-NC

Yet Starmer’s time in parliament has been more intense than most. He was deeply involved in Brexit, and then led his party during the pandemic. As leader of the opposition, he saw two prime ministers removed in quick succession (and played a large role in removing at least one, with his methodical lawyer’s approach). Now, he has taken down a third.

Man on a mission

Importantly, Starmer has led what is effectively a large government department. His five years as director of public prosecutions (DPP) means he comes into Number 10 as an experienced leader having, rather unusually, run a state organisation before his political career had even begun.

Starmer’s experience as DPP implies an emphasis on delivering. We can expect him to focus on fixing problems, finding solutions, and getting things done. We can also perhaps expect more emphasis on outcomes and an end to the politicisation and battles with the bureaucratic machinery of government that characterised the previous administration.

It has been suggested that Starmer’s will be a mission-led government, organised around a set of guiding, longer-term missions with the goal of delivering certainty and sustained change. This idea is not new or particularly radical but it may appear so after the seeming chaos and short-termism of recent years.

How, and how swiftly, decisions are made – or not made – will be the crucial test. Starmer’s apparent indecision over the net zero agenda could be the shape of things to come. Being methodical and interested in detail can be shorthand for delay and indecision.

He has hinted at being a consultative leader: “The best decisions I’ve made in my life were those held up to the light and that survived scrutiny. The worst were when nobody said ‘boo’”. However his penchant for “undersharing”, as noted by his deputy Angela Rayner, may mean he keeps decision-making concentrated in a small group of confidants.

Man of mystery

A Starmer-led government is likely, especially with a large parliamentary majority, to be empowered to make changes. As a self-described socialist and progressive, Starmer can hardly avoid it. But how radical will he be? One former Labour minister spoke of how “he is very impressive, but he never strays too far beyond the boundaries. Even when he was a radical lawyer, he was one of a conventional sort.”

Where exactly Starmer sits remains a mystery or “a mystery wrapped in a riddle wrapped in something sensible and beige”. A supporter explained how “one of Keir’s greatest strengths is that he’s never been from, or beholden to, a particular faction of the Labour party”.

But one truism of political leadership is that what begins as a strength ends as a weakness. Lots of the fault lines within the Labour party are already visible, from child poverty to Gaza. Other issues are bubbling away. Starmer’s ability to float above the fray can’t last, and there are likely to be plots and challenges (especially if a large majority means underemployed backbenchers).

Here, Starmer sits within perhaps another classic dilemma of the Labour party and of Labour prime ministers: what David Marquand called the “progressive dilemma”, namely how far can you, and do you, push change, without stretching the support of the broad coalition who put you in the job? The approach has so far been caution, supported by a disciplined shadow cabinet, but a large majority may transform the situation.

Yet other leaders have made huge changes quietly. Theresa May, for example, pushed through a net zero law so silently that “nobody even noticed the Tories’ biggest legacy”.

However, to revisit the warning of Asquith, being prime minister is about what a leader is “able” to do. Events blow all governments off course, and plenty have been overwhelmed by crises. Starmer would do well to heed the warning of boxer Mike Tyson that “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”.

After his win, there is a weight of expectation on Starmer. But trust in all politicians is low and damaged. There will be pressing domestic issues over migration, public service funding, and the NHS. Abroad, as one Labour advisor warned, there is a “stormy world” from Gaza and Ukraine to the US election. The true test of what Prime Minister Starmer may be is when his methodical approach meets a messy world.

About the Author:

Mark Bennister, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Lincoln and Ben Worthy, Lecturer in Politics, Birkbeck, University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

13 Jul

Currency Speculators boost their British Pound bets to highest since 2007

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (22,649 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,249 contracts), the EuroFX (13,142 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (9,140 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,190 contracts) and Bitcoin (794 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-4,831 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,645 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,624 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-374 contracts) and with the Mexican Peso (-304 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators boost their British Pound bets to highest since 2007

Highlighting this week’s COT currency data is the strong gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling (GBP). The Pound Sterling speculative positioning increased this week for a second straight week – jumping by a total of +22,649 contracts following last week’s +17,993 contract gain.

The GBP speculator position has risen for the eighth time out of the past ten weeks for a ten-week gain of +113,680 contracts that has taken the net standing from a total of -28,990 contracts on April 30th to a total of +84,690 contracts this week.

The GBP speculator position is now at the most bullish level in the past 886 weeks, dating back all the way to July 17th of 2007 when the GBP net position hit a record high of +98,366 contracts.

The British Pound’s exchange rate with the US Dollar has been in an uptrend since hitting a recent low in April. The GBP has climbed strongly over the past two weeks and closed out this week at just a touch under the 1.3000 psychological resistance level. This is the highest weekly close for the GBPUSD currency pair since July of 2023 and the first close above the 200-week moving average since that time as well.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (91 percent), Bitcoin (65 percent) and the Mexican Peso (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (39.4 percent)
EuroFX (21.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (16.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (86.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (1.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (83.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (90.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (64.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (52.7 percent)

Australian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (48 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (36 percent), the US Dollar Index (26 percent) and Bitcoin (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-23 percent), Japanese Yen (-16 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (25.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (27.9 percent)
EuroFX (-23.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-21.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (36.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-15.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-5.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (45.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (61.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-28.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-26.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-6.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.7 percent)
Bitcoin (9.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.7	18.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	58.2	4.6
– Net Position:	16,208	-17,419	1,211
– Gross Longs:	30,587	7,769	3,200
– Gross Shorts:	14,379	25,188	1,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	63.9	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.7	-25.3	-0.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	58.9	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	63.2	8.1
– Net Position:	3,623	-27,239	23,616
– Gross Longs:	165,829	375,248	75,272
– Gross Shorts:	162,206	402,487	51,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	79.0	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	21.5	-7.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.4	20.6	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	62.8	11.1
– Net Position:	84,690	-94,586	9,896
– Gross Longs:	135,316	46,249	34,670
– Gross Shorts:	50,626	140,835	24,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.9	-32.6	6.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -182,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -184,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	73.8	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.1	19.4	14.1
– Net Position:	-182,033	189,867	-7,834
– Gross Longs:	41,521	257,455	41,519
– Gross Shorts:	223,554	67,588	49,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.3	97.4	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	13.4	7.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	83.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	19.9	24.6
– Net Position:	-46,088	59,298	-13,210
– Gross Longs:	5,338	77,860	9,743
– Gross Shorts:	51,426	18,562	22,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	2.3	1.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -111,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	77.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	33.0	13.1
– Net Position:	-111,212	113,308	-2,096
– Gross Longs:	20,263	198,168	31,676
– Gross Shorts:	131,475	84,860	33,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	77.2	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	11.6	4.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,836 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	39.6	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	45.0	9.1
– Net Position:	2,413	-12,132	9,719
– Gross Longs:	98,997	89,192	30,274
– Gross Shorts:	96,584	101,324	20,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	85.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.6	-47.4	25.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.0	18.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	63.8	5.6
– Net Position:	25,912	-26,828	916
– Gross Longs:	41,683	11,129	4,250
– Gross Shorts:	15,771	37,957	3,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	6.5	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.9	-45.8	16.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 63,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	45.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	79.9	2.0
– Net Position:	63,323	-65,743	2,420
– Gross Longs:	95,748	85,441	6,150
– Gross Shorts:	32,425	151,184	3,730
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	37.5	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.3	28.1	-8.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	70.9	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	21.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-42,684	43,388	-704
– Gross Longs:	23,319	62,170	1,919
– Gross Shorts:	66,003	18,782	2,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.3	0.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.7	2.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.2	2.9	4.1
– Net Position:	-118	-88	206
– Gross Longs:	23,083	736	1,363
– Gross Shorts:	23,201	824	1,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	62.5	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	1.5	-15.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

13 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Australian Dollar, Brazil Real top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 9th 2024.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is currently at the maximum 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 47.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,413 net contracts this week with a boost of 18,249 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is also now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.2 this week. The speculator position registered 61,056 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 5,222 contracts in speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 35.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 84,690 net contracts this week with a jump of 22,649 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 99.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 12.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 75,420 net contracts this week with an increase by 7,659 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gold speculator level sits at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 8.2 this week.

The speculator position was 254,775 net contracts this week with a rise of 13,232 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,684 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,624 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The speculator position was -46,088 net contracts this week with a decrease of -2,645 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,566,601 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,629 contracts in the speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 1.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.8 this week. The speculator position was -182,033 net contracts this week with a small gain of 2,190 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

Finally, the Cotton speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 2.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.6 this week. The speculator position was -24,509 net contracts this week with a reduction by -7,188 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

12 Jul

Week Ahead: EU50 waits for directional spark

By ForexTime

FXTM’s EU50 ↑ 10% since start of 2024

EU data + ECB = big price swings?

Over past year ECB decision triggered moves of ↑ 1.5% & ↓ 0.3%

Index trading 3% away from YTD high at 5142.3

Technical levels = 5010 & 4880

Watch out for fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead due to key data, corporate earnings, and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting:

Monday, 15th July

CN50: China GDP, retail sales, industrial production
EU50: Eurozone industrial production
US500: US Empire State Manufacturing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech
US30: Goldman Sachs earnings

Tuesday, 16th July

GER40: Germany ZEW survey expectations
EU50: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations
JP225: Japan tertiary industry index
US500: US retail sales, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings

Wednesday, 17th July

EU50: Eurozone CPI
SG20: Singapore trade
UK100: UK CPI
US500: US industrial production, Fed Beige book
NETH25: ASML earnings

Thursday, 18th July

AU200: Australia unemployment
EU50: ECB rate decision
UK100: UK jobless claims, unemployment
US500: US initial jobless claims, Fed speech
NAS100: Netflix earnings
TWN: TSMC earnings

Friday, 19th July

JP225: Japan CPI
US500: New York Fed President Williams, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speech

Our spotlight shines on FXTM’s EU50 which has been trapped within a weekly range since mid-February 2024. Still, the index has gained 10% year-to-date and is 3% away from its 2024 high at 5142.3.

Note: FXTM’s EU50 tracks the underlying Euro Stoxx 50 index – which represents the performance of the 50 largest blue-chip companies operating within eurozone nations.

With all the above discussed, here are 3 forces that may rock the EU50 in the week ahead:

1) Key EU data

Economic releases from Europe may impact bets around when the ECB cuts rates again in 2024.

Keep an eye on the latest Eurozone industrial production, the final print of June’s inflation reading along with the ZEW survey expectations from Germany – the largest economy in Europe. While the incoming data is unlikely to impact what decision the ECB makes this month, it could expectations for September and beyond.

Should overall European data support the argument for lower rates, this could push the EU50 higher.

A positive set of economic reports or an unexpected upward revision to the CPI print could pull the EU50 lower.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the Germany ZEW survey has triggered upside moves as much as 0.5% or declines of 0.5% in a 6-hour window post-release.

2) ECB rate decision

Markets widely expect the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday 18th July.

In June, the central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2019 but adopted a cautious stance on future moves. Much focus will be on Lagarde’s press conference for additional clues on future policy moves, especially after the recent political drama in Europe.

Traders are currently pricing in an 82% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by September with a move fully priced in by October.

The EU50 could receive a boost if the ECB signals that a September rate cut is on the cards.

If the ECB sounds more hawkish than expected or offers little insight on future moves, the EU50 may dip.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the ECB rate decision has triggered upside moves as much as 1.5% or declines of 0.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

3) Technical forces

Prices remain trapped within a wide range on the daily charts with the first layer of support at 4880 and resistance at 5010. The candlesticks are trading marginally below the 50 and 100-day SMA as of writing with the MACD below zero.

A solid breakout above 5010, may open a path towards 5115 and 5142. Should bulls push beyond the 2024 high, this could trigger a move toward the next psychological point at 5150.

Sustained weakness below 5010, could see bears challenge 4880 and 4835.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News Opinions

10 Jul

What is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)?

Market trust at stake: What the Supreme Court’s ruling in SEC v. Jarkesy means for investors

By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Appalachian State University

A recent Supreme Court ruling has gotten a lot of attention for how it could reshape government. What’s gotten much less attention is how it could affect markets.

As finance professors, we find this at least as important. The Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling in SEC v. Jarkesy could make it more challenging for the Securities and Exchange Commission – the U.S. agency that regulates securities markets – to fight fraud. And any time the SEC loses power, as it just did, market trust and transparency may be at risk.

What matters for investors, including anyone with a 401(k) plan, is how the SEC chooses to handle cases moving forward.

What is securities fraud, anyway?

Securities are investments like stocks and bonds, and securities fraud is a crime that involves misleading investors. Specifically, it is “the misrepresentation or omission of critical information to induce investors into trading securities,” according to the Legal Information Institute at Cornell University.

Some people joke that “everything is securities fraud,” because words like “misrepresentation” and “securities” are open to a lot of interpretation.

But even though those words can be defined broadly, the SEC prosecutes relatively few cases – those where it has the greatest likelihood of winning.

What happened in SEC v. Jarkesy?

The story of SEC v. Jarkesy began with the 2008 financial crisis, when a hedge fund manager in Texas watched the value of his funds decline.

In 2013, the SEC accused the fund manager – George Jarkesy – of committing securities fraud, alleging that he overestimated fund values and made other false claims. The SEC charged Jarkesy and fined him US$300,000 in a proceeding in an in-house SEC court overseen by an administrative law judge.

Jarkesy then sued the SEC, claiming he hadn’t been granted a fair trial.

The case found its way before the Supreme Court, which ruled in Jarkesy’s favor. The ruling determined that the SEC proceedings used to identify fraud and impose fines didn’t meet the criteria for a fair trial. Moving forward, such cases will need to be tried in federal court.

It’s an important precedent for the defense of people accused of misdeeds by government agencies. And the SEC isn’t the only agency to use such internal administrative proceedings. More than two dozen other agencies, including the Department of Labor and the Environmental Protection Agency, will be affected by the court’s ruling.

Arcane, but important.

How will the ruling affect SEC enforcement?

Some people have argued the ruling won’t change much for the SEC, since the agency had already started routing many cases through federal courts. Additionally, the SEC has plenty of other opportunities to fight fraud through federal litigation, industry bars and suspensions.

However, a ruling that the SEC now must turn to judiciary trials or proceedings instead of internal administrative proceedings will move all securities-fraud cases involving fines to the federal courts, potentially raising the cost of prosecution. That, in turn, could result in fewer enforcement efforts, given limited agency resources.

What’s more, losing the implicit home-court advantage the SEC previously had with its internal proceedings could further slow and complicate enforcement efforts. The result could be that when people commit securities fraud, the SEC won’t have the resources to ensure they’re caught and punished.

In the short term, the Supreme Court ruling avoided limiting the SEC’s power as much as some of the lower courts suggested it should. So at least the SEC kept most of its rule-making and enforcement authority.

How could the ruling affect markets?

To understand what will likely change, it’s important to understand the former status quo.

In the most recent fiscal year, 2023, the SEC filed 784 enforcement actions, ordering nearly $5 billion in fines and distributing nearly $1 billion to harmed investors. That was a 3% increase in enforcement actions over 2022. And the past two years of SEC fines have been the largest on record.

But now, the SEC cannot fine defendants through administrative courts and must seek civil penalties through federal courts.

One potential outcome could be a smaller regulatory burden for investment professionals who may have been concerned with how their actions would be viewed by the SEC – including, but not necessarily limited to, fraudsters. This is because the SEC may bring forward fewer fines or cases with fines due to the additional resources necessary for judiciary proceedings.

If that happens, fraudsters might be emboldened – since the expected cost of committing securities fraud would be lower than it was before the ruling – and investors would have to depend less on regulators protecting them and more on limiting risks themselves.

This could pose a problem for less sophisticated investors. Lots of people don’t know how to define securities fraud; even fewer can figure out whether a fund manager may have committed it. That risk, in turn, could limit the way investors participate in markets.

But if that simply means Americans buy more shares of S&P 500 exchange-traded funds and invest less in hedge funds, it shouldn’t be a problem for anyone’s bottom line. And more sophisticated investors should be well-equipped to evaluate risks on their own.

At the end of the day, researchers have documented the importance of trust on market quality and efficiency. So whatever helps the SEC maintain trust will have the most value for markets.

Enforcement will remain key to maintaining transparency in markets, but the method of enforcement – be it in a federal court or elsewhere – may not matter very much. The important thing is that people who commit financial crimes continue to face consequences.

About the Authors:

D. Brian Blank, Associate Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Associate Professor of Finance and Distinguished Scholar of Applied Investments, Appalachian State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

10 Jul

Expert Says Buy Copper

Source: Michael Ballanger (7/8/24)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of copper and gold and explains his positions in some stocks.

When I started writing a newsletter decades ago, I did so for two reasons. The first was to condense communication to one mailed letter rather than several hundred telephone conversations; the second was to clarify my own thoughts. By that, I mean taking the ideas I had been formulating on the “investment climate as I see it” and translating those thoughts into a concise, comprehensible, and simple format that all clients could grasp without a great deal of explanation.

What started as an experiment evolved into a ritual, which in later years became a business where subscribers pay to know what I am thinking on the “investment climate as I see it.” In doing so, I was inadvertently imparting learned behaviors (and largely successful ones) from a past era to an entirely new generation of traders and investors. This new generation of investors would hear their parents and grandparents talk about the stock market in whispered reverence of names like Robert Friedland (Diamondfields), Ron Netolitzsky (Eskay Creek), and Chuck Fipke (Dia Met) and, in later eras, names like Chris Smith (Great Bear’s Dixie Project) and Blair Way (Patriot Battery Metals) — names all associated with massive wealth creation.

However, outside of Friedland, very few have replicated their victories. Few except, of course, Friedland, who has parlayed a billion-dollar win with Diamondfields into multiples of that with his family-owned Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN:TSX; IVPAF:OTCQX), which is one of the top mining performers for 2024, up 45.68% on the strength of its partial ownership of the staggering Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the DRC.

I met Friedland in the early 1990s long before the mercurial Voisey’s Bay “Hustle” that turned a decent nickel find in Labrador into a larger-than-life, world-class, must-own asset for nickel giant Inco Limited wound up (thanks to Friedland’s masterful prompting) pay double what they should have for the resource. It is names like Bob Friedland that keep old-timers like me coming back to the junior resource casino, but the one thing that I neglected to recognize in my recent travels is that it is names like Michael Saylor (Bitcoin) and Elon Musk (Tesla, Space-X) and Jensen Huang (NVidia) that dominate the collective psyches of the youthful investing demographic.

The “kiddies” (as I love to call them) have little experience in multi-bagger mining stock windfalls, but they have plenty of them in technology and “meme” stocks.

So, when I entitle my weekend missive “BUY COPPER,” I fully expect to look out into the audience and see a multitude of glazed eyes and unresponsive stares. While the electrification movement won over the Millennial and Gen-X throng with emphasis on battery metals and storage (lithium) and the clean-energy revolution implied by a return to nuclear (uranium), they have been largely unimpressed with the stories being told by some of the world’s most experienced resource managers.

Even the senior gold stocks like Barrick Gold Corp.’s (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE) CEO (and resolute gold bug, Mark Bristow) have shifted to a copper-bias and now aggressively seek out copper-gold porphyry deposits over straight gold deposits as part of their new strategy.

One has to ask one’s self why these heretofore trumpeting sound money advocates of yesteryear are now moving — charging — into the world of copper. One also has to admire the brilliance of the management vision of global copper leader Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:NYSE), whose portfolio of copper and gold operations has it superbly positioned to benefit from the rapidly accelerating structural shortage in the red metal. You have heard it and read it all before many times through eardrum-piercing screams and bold italicized capitals that waning global production brought on by hostile governments and declining grades has created a “too-little-too-late” conundrum verging upon crisis for copper consumers the world over.

I wrote about copper in 2023 at $3.40/lb. and urged ownership of FCX in the low $30’s when everyone was chastising me because I “obviously” did not “get it” because surely, with a recession about to ravage the U.S. (and the globe), my copper-bullish thesis was completely flawed. The big miners like Newmont and Barrick just kept acquiring copper-centric assets while the electrification crowd waving pompoms and blowing streamers about lithium as the new “Wonder-metal for the New Age” got their backsides handed to them in the wake of a 75% drop in lithium prices just as copper was quietly moving toward the $4.00/lb. then $5.00/lb. by early 2024.

I exited the copper market in mid-May at around $5.15/lb. only after scrolling down through Twitter and discovering that 90% of all the “kiddies” that were flag-waving over uranium and lithium juniors at the top in 2023 were now the newly-and-self-proclaimed experts in copper. Six-paragraph posts offering “The Ten Reasons Copper is headed to $10!” inundated the blogosphere, so seeing that I exited the copper ETFs and my beloved FCX (above $52), fully expecting a pullback in prices. Well, lo and behold, I got the 16.6% correction in copper, but alas, a testimonial to the incredible strength of their operations, the best (or worst) FCX could do was track back to just under $47 only to scream back to where it lies today at $51.68.

Agonizingly, I am forced to buy back my cherished Freeport a mere 50 cents under where I sold it. So be it.

The technical picture for copper could not get any more bullish. You have a “neutral” RSI down from “overbought” while just entering a bullish MACD crossover and “buy signal” along with a bullish money flow indicator.

More importantly, the Twitterverse is now silent, absent the incessant cheerleading so characteristic of a top as sentiment has become subdued once again and conditions ripe for the turn.

Gold

Gold has completed its correction and now looks poised to test the highs of last May at $225.66. I have yet to lift my minuscule hedge positions, but I still have 42 days until expiry, so I will wait to see what next week brings.

SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) was poised to test the 100-dma at what was $202 originally when I first put on the hedges, but the action has been so positive for gold that the 100-dma is now $209.34 and rising. I will not put on any further trading positions until my usual mid-August shopping spree for “all things golden,” but with both copper and now gold kicking back into overdrive, it looks like my overweight positions in copper and copper-gold juniors (Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB), Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE; GGLDF:OTCQB),American Eagle Gold Corp. (AE:TSXV), and now Vortex Metals Inc. (VMSSF:OTCMKTS; VMS:TSX; DM8:FSE)) are going to be soon validated.

Let us all hope and pray that the blogosphere and the Twitterverse remain quiet until next year, some time allowing the two metal beasts to thrive and advance.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc., Getchell Gold Corp., American Eagle Gold Corp., Vortex Metals Inc., and Barrick Gold Corp.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., Freeport-McMoRan Inc., Fitzroy Minerals Inc., Getchell Gold Corp.,American Eagle Gold Corp. , and Vortex Metals Inc. My company has a financial relationship with Fitzroy Minerals Inc. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Metals Opinions

10 Jul

AI Data Centers, EVs to Lead New Surge in Energy Demand

Source: Streetwise Reports (7/9/24)

With Electric Vehicles (EVs) and a swarm of new products requiring more power, experts agree that a surge in demand is coming, and soon. Here are several companies that can get you exposure to this important and growing resource.

With Electric Vehicles (EVs) and a swarm of new products requiring more power, experts agree that a surge in demand is coming, and soon.

But the nation’s largest utility companies are warning the surge could be unlike anything seen since the widespread adoption of heat pumps and air conditioners pushed demand sky-high in the 20th Century, according to a June 30 piece by Spencer Kimball for CNBC.

This time the engine of growth will come from power-hungry artificial intelligence data centers, EVs, and the expansion of computer chip manufacturing, he wrote.

“In absolute terms, the growth in electricity demand from these two segments, EVs and data centers, is equivalent to the total electricity demand of a country such as Turkey, that the U.S. has to take on,” said Rystad Energy analyst Surya Hendry in a June release on the issue. “This growth is a race against time to expand power generation without overwhelming electricity systems to the point of stress. If you envision cleaner roads and sustainable AI for the future, renewable energy is the key to meeting this demand and providing the scalability needed for U.S. power systems to endure.”

The tech giants — Amazon, Alphabet’s Google, Microsoft, and Meta — are looking for more power as they bring data centers online that can require as much as a gigawatt of electricity, Petter Skantze, vice president of infrastructure development at NextEra Energy Resources, told CNBC.

“To put that in context, a gigawatt is equivalent to the capacity of nuclear reactor,” the CNBC report noted.

Skantze’s parent company is NextEra Energy, the largest power company in the S&P utilities sector by market capitalization.

“This is a different urgency coming,” Skantze told the Reuters Global Energy Transition conference in New York recently, according to CNBC. “They need this load to drive the next iteration of growth. They’re showing up now at the utility and they’re banging on the door and they’re saying I need to put this resource on the grid.”

The Spark: AI Data Centers, EVs Demand Power

Rystad Energy’s research predicted that data centers and EVs alone will add 290 terrawatt hours (TWh) of new demand by 2030.

“Overall, the combined expansion of traditional and AI data centers, along with chip foundries, will increase demand cumulatively by 177 TWh from 2023 to 2030, reaching a total of 307 TWh,” noted Rystad, an independent research and energy intelligence company. “Despite data centers currently representing a relatively modest portion of total electricity demand in the U.S., this marks a more than two-fold increase compared to 2023 levels, which stood at 130 TWh, highlighting the efforts of the U.S. to position itself as a global data center hub.”

Rystad said the reliance on coal in the U.S. has diminished. This is expected to continue while overall power generation is expected to rise.

“The power mix will increasingly be defined by renewable energy growth and declining coal generation, supported by the Inflation Reduction Act and lowering costs for solar and wind generation technologies,” analysts wrote. “Most states are embracing renewable energy and natural gas in comparison to coal plants, in an effort to become greener and achieve climate goals. Overall, natural gas will continue to dominate much of the US power mix for the next decade, but renewable energy will play an increasingly important role.”

Solar PV capacity is expected to increase by 237 gigawatts (GW) between 2023 and 2030, while wind capacity is projected to grow by 78 GW, Rystad said. The strong growth from these two sources should be sufficient to meet the rising power demand brought by data centers and EVs in the US, while continuing to displace coal in the generation mix.

Southern Co., the second-largest utility in the U.S. by market cap, headquartered in Atlanta, said supplying the demand needed all of America’s future needs is a matter of economic and national security.

Chief Executive Officer Chris Womack told CNBC’s Kimball that nuclear power also has “got to be a big part of this mix.”

“Energy security brings national security, also brings about and supports economic security,” Womack said. “We’ve got to balance and meet the needs of sustainability. But — to ensure that we can continue to have a growing, a thriving economy — we got to get the energy piece right.”

There are some companies that investors can look at to get exposure to this revolution, including one that focuses on renewable sources, another that has created a sustainable battery that could help store all of this energy, and uranium explorers looking to supply future nuclear reactors.

Revolve Renewable Power Corp.

Revolve Renewable Power Corp. (TSXV:REVV; OTCQB:REVVF) was formed 12 years ago to capitalize on the growing global demand for renewable power. It develops utility-scale wind, solar, and battery storage projects in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Its second division, Revolve Renewable Business Solutions, installs and operates sub-20MW “behind the meter” distributed generation (or “DG”) assets.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Revolve Renewable Power Corp. (TSXV:REVV;OTCQB:REVVF)

	Management & Insiders: 60%
	Retail: 40%

60.0%

40.0%

^*Share Structure as of 2/1/2024

Source: Revolve Renewable Power Corp.

Its portfolio includes 11 Megawatts (net) of operating assets under long-term power purchase agreements across Canada and Mexico covering wind, solar, battery storage, and hydro generation; a 3 Megawatt (MW) CHP project and a 450 Kilowatt peak (kWp) rooftop solar project that are both under construction and expected to be operational later this year; and a diverse portfolio of utility-scale development projects across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico that have a combined capacity of over 3,000 MWs, as well as a 140 MW+ distributed generation portfolio that is under development.

Revolve has developed and sold over 1,550MW of projects so far. Going forward, Revolve said it is targeting 5,000 MW of utility-scale projects under development and is rapidly growing its portfolio of revenue-generating DG assets in parallel.

The company reported renewable energy generation of 3,877,342 kWh for the three-month period and 4,822,522 kWh for the nine-month period ending March 31, 2024.

During that quarter, Revolve completed the acquisition of WindRiver, a Canadian-based renewable energy operator and developer, enhancing its portfolio with additional hydro and wind projects.

About 60% of the company is owned by insiders and management, Revolve said.

Top shareholders include Joseph O’Farrell with 13.21%, Roger Norwich with 12.15%, the CEO and Director Stephen Dalton with 6.01%, President and Director Omar Bojoquez with 4.82%, and Jonathan Clare with 1.84%, according to Reuters and the company.

The rest is retail.

Revolve has a market cap of CA$22.06 million with 63.04 million shares outstanding and 38.08 million free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.50 and CA$0.20.

BioLargo Inc.

BioLargo Inc. (BLGO:OTCQB) plans to revolutionize the way energy is stored during the transition. It recently announced it has manufactured “liquid sodium” prototype battery cells that are long-lasting and safer than lithium-ion batteries.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

BioLargo Inc. (BLGO:OTCQB)

	Retail: 85%
	Insiders & Management: 15%

85%

15%

^*Share Structure as of 2/20/2024

Source: Thomson Reuters

BioLargo’s Cellinity™ battery cells have no runaway fires or risk of explosion, don’t decrease in performance over thousands of uses, and store more energy per unit of weight than lithium batteries, the company noted.

The company also said the battery is not self-discharging and does not have outgassing or parasitic load for cooling, and all of the materials in it can be sourced in North America without the need for rare earth elements.

The batteries have a unique chemistry involving molten salt electrolytes that “imparts substantial benefits over lithium-ion chemistry,” the company noted in a release.

“The world needs a reliable, safe, and eco-friendly alternative to lithium batteries, and we believe our Cellinity battery will meet these needs,” BioLargo President and Chief Executive Officer Dennis P. Calvert said.

BioLargo is made up of several subsidiaries that work in different sectors, a “family of products,” including ONM Environmental, BioLargo Engineering, BioLargo Water, BioLargo Energy Technologies, Clyra Medical Technologies, and the new BioLargo Equipment Solutions & Technologies Inc. (BEST) subsidiary.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund said on July 2 BioLargo’s stock “looks better than ever” as a “range of factors strongly suggest that it will now embark on another upleg.”

“Amongst the bullish factors to observe here is the increase in upside volume in recent weeks, with the Accumulation line showing remarkable strength and advancing to new highs, indicating that the stock has continued to be accumulated even as it has corrected back in a downtrend from its February peak,” Maund wrote.

About 14.6% of BioLargo is owned by insiders and management, according to Yahoo Finance. They include Chief Science Officer Kenneth Code with 8.44%, CEO Calvert with 3.32%, and Director Jack Strommen with 1.64%, Reuters reported.

About 0.04% is held by the institution First American Trust, Reuters said.

The rest, about 85%, is retail.

Its market cap is US$80.15 million, with about 296.84 million shares outstanding and about 254.71 million free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of US$0.45 and US$0.15.

Skyharbour Resources Ltd.

Skyharbour Resources Ltd. (SYH:TSX.V; SYHBF:OTCQX; SC1P:FSE) has an extensive portfolio of uranium exploration projects in Canada’s Athabasca Basin, with 29 projects, 10 of which are drill-ready, covering over 587,000 hectares of mineral claims.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Skyharbour Resources Ltd. (SYH:TSX.V; SYHBF:OTCQX; SC1P:FSE)

	Institutions: 55%
	Retail: 40%
	Management and Insiders: 5%

55.0%

40.0%

5.0%

^*Share Structure as of 4/4/2024

Source: Skyharbour Resources

On Tuesday, the company announced initial results from more than 3,000 meters of drilling from Phase One of its 2024 winter drilling program at the Russell Lake Uranium Project in the central core of the Eastern Athabasca Basin. Second phase results from more than 2,800 meters of drilling are still pending.

The best intercept of uranium mineralization historically on the property was discovered in hole RSL24-02 during Phase One, which returned a 2.5-meter-wide intercept of 0.721% U3O8 at a relatively shallow depth of 338.1 meters, including 2.99% U3O8 over 0.5 meters at 339.6 meters just above the unconformity in the sandstone, the company said.

This high-grade intercept is a new discovery at the recently identified Fork Target, Skyharbour noted in a release.

“The discovery of multi-percent, high-grade, sandstone-hosted uranium mineralization at a new target is a major breakthrough in the discovery process at Russell — something that hasn’t been seen before at the project with the potential to quickly grow with more drilling,” President and Chief Executive Officer Jordan Trimble said.

In addition to exploring for high-grade uranium deposits, Skyharbour utilizes a prospect generator strategy by bringing in partner companies to advance its secondary assets.

Partner companies include Azincourt Energy Corp. (AAZ:TSX.V; AZURF:OTC), Thunderbird Resources Ltd. (THB:ASX) (formerly Valor Resources Ltd.), Basin Uranium Corp. (NCLR:CSE; BURCF:OTC; 6NP0:FRA), and Medaro Mining Corp. (MEDA:CNX). More recently, two earn-in option agreements have been signed with Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. to option the South Falcon East project, as well as North Shore Uranium Ltd. to option the Falcon project.

Jeff Clark, who just took over Gwen Preston’s The Maven Letter, which has now been christened Paydirt Prospector, said both the management team and the company’s projects themselves are impressive.

“Skyharbour is fully funded, sitting on CA$7M in cash,” he said in a June 26 Streetwise Reports article.

Management, insiders, and close business associates own approximately 5% of the company. According to Reuters, the CEO Trimble owns 1.54%, and Director David Cates owns 0.70%.

Institutional, corporate, and strategic investors own approximately 55% of the company. Denison Mines owns 6.3%, Rio Tinto owns 2.0%, Extract Advisors LLC owns 9%, Alps Advisors Inc. owns 9.91%, Mirae Asset Global Investments (U.S.A) L.L.C. owns 6.29%, Sprott Asset Management L.P. owns 1.5%, and Incrementum AG owns 1.18%, Reuters reported.

There are 182.53 million shares outstanding with 177.73 million free float traded shares, while the company has a market cap of CA$66.62 million and trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.33 and CA$0.64.

Tisdale Clean Energy Corp.

One of Skyharbour’s partner companies is British Columbia-based Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. (TCEC:CSE; TCEFF:OTCQB; T1KC:SE), which is advancing the South Falcon East uranium project just outside the southeast part of Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin, as part of an earn-in agreement with Skyharbour.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. (TCEC:CSE; TCEFF:OTCQB; T1KC:SE)

	Retail: 79.46%
	Strategic Investors: 15.5%
	Management and Insiders: 5.04%

79.5%

15.5%

5.0%

^*Share Structure as of 6/20/2024

Source: Tisdale Clean Energy Corp.

Nearby, big uranium companies are operating, including Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE), Denison Mines Corp. (DML:TSX; DNN:NYSE.MKT), NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE:TSX; NXE:NYSE.MKT), and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTPPF:OTCPK), Technical Analyst Clive Maund highlighted on June 11.*

“They would not be there without good reason, so the chances of [Tisdale] making a significant discovery are high,” wrote Maund.

The 12,234-hectare South Falcon East property encompasses the near-surface Fraser Lakes Zone B deposit. It has a historical Inferred resource of about 7 million pounds of U3O8 at 0.03% and 5.3 million pounds of thorium dioxide at 0.023% within 10,354,926 tons using a U3O8 cutoff grade of 0.01%.

Maund recommended the stock as a Strong Buy for all time horizons. In his report, he explained that though the stock has been declining in price since last spring, it is showing signs, on its one-and-two-year charts, that it is “set to reverse to the upside soon.”

Tisdale provided a breakdown of the company’s ownership and share structure, where CEO Alex Klenman owns 5.04% of the company with 1,591,300 shares.

Planet Ventures Inc. owns approximately 12% of the company, with 3.88 million shares, while Skyharbour Resources owns approximately 3.5%, with 1.11 million.

Tisdale has 31.54 million outstanding shares and 26.6 million free-float traded shares.

Over the past 52 weeks, the company has traded between CA$0.08 and CA$0.40 per share and has a market cap of CA$3.15 million.

North Shore Uranium Ltd.

Another uranium option is another Skyharbour partner, North Shore Uranium Ltd. (NSU:TSX), which is preparing for a follow-up drill program at Falcon and, later, a maiden drill campaign at West Bear, which are both uranium projects in the Athabasca Basin.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

North Shore Uranium Ltd. (NSU:TSX)

	Retail: 55%
	Management & Insiders: 45%

55%

45%

^*Share Structure as of 5/16/2024

Source: North Shore Uranium

“We think we’ve just scratched the surface at Falcon,” President and Chief Executive Officer Brooke Clements said in an interview on RCTV. “More work is clearly warranted on the discoveries we made this winter. We have a lot of untested, high-priority targets that we want to evaluate.”

Both projects, about 90 kilometers (90 km) apart, are at the basin’s eastern margin, an area with much less past exploration than the expanse to the west. Both projects have historical exploration data, now in the hands of North Shore, which complemented it with airborne gravity surveys over each property in 2022. Both projects boast established uranium potential.

Clements said for the 55,000-hectare Falcon project, North Shore completed its maiden drill program earlier this year. It selected the drill targets after analyzing various historical data sets and the results of airborne geophysical surveys done in 2006, 2007, and 2022, said Clements.

Red Cloud Securities Analyst David Talbot described the drill results in a March research report. “In our view, the structures and alteration typical of basement-hosted uranium mineralization [were] identified by this initial drill program,” he wrote. “We see the results as a positive first step.”

Before the next drill program, said Clements, North Shore is analyzing its extensive geophysical and geological database along with data from the drill program and plans to go into the field to investigate some of the priority targets. North Shore also intends to drill the West Bear property in the future.

Among the reasons investors should consider North Shore, Clements said, are its ownership by insiders and founding investors, tight share structure, and attractive valuation.

Insiders and founding investors who are not insiders own approximately 45% of the issued and outstanding shares. Clements himself owns 3.43% or 1.26 million shares, Director Doris Meyer has 2.11% or 0.78 million shares, and Director James Arthur holds 1.45% or 0.53 million shares.

Most of the rest is with retail, as the institutional holdings are minor.

North Shore has 36.81 million outstanding shares.

The company has a market cap of CA$3.31 million at the recent price of CA$0.09 per share. It has traded in the past 52 weeks between CA$0.08 and CA$0.30 per share.

Important Disclosures:

BioLargo Inc., Revolve Renewable Power Corp., Skyharbour Resources Ltd., and Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports and pay SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000. In addition, North Shore Uranium Ltd. and Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. have a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pay a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Azincourt Energy Corp., BioLargo Inc., North Shore Uranium Ltd., Revolve Renewable Power Corp., Cameco Corp., and Tisdale Clean Energy Corp.
Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

* Disclosure for the quote from the Clive Maund article published on June 11, 2024

For the quoted article (published on June 6, 2024), Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. paid Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, US$1,500 in addition to the monthly consulting fee.
Author Certification and Compensation: [Clive Maund of clivemaund.com] is being compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, for writing the article quoted. Maund received his UK Technical Analysts’ Diploma in 1989. The recommendations and opinions expressed in the article accurately reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the designated securities discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The quoted article represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be only be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Energy Opinions

05 Jul

Week Ahead: US500 set for major pullback?

By ForexTime

US500 gains 15% in first half of 2024

April only negative trading month this year

US CPI, Powell Testimony & Big bank earnings in focus

Bullish but RSI overbought on multiple timeframes

Technical levels – 5600, 5500 & 5460

The UK general election is done and dusted with Labour securing a landslide victory as widely expected.

But the political risks don’t end there…

Just across the English Channel, France will hold the second and final round of its legislative elections this Sunday. And if the far-right National Rally wins an absolute majority, that shocker could see the FRA40 plunging to its year-to-date low.

Speaking of indices, FXTM’s US500 continues to dazzle markets with record highs!

And could see more volatility this afternoon thanks to the US jobs report (Friday 5th July). But even as anticipation mounts, investors are bracing for more action in the week ahead:

Sunday, 7th July

FRA40: Second round of French legislative elections

Monday, 8th July

JP225: Japan current account

Tuesday, 9th July

AU200: Australia consumer confidence
CNH: China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans
TWN: Taiwan trade
US500: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony

Wednesday, 10th July

CN50: China PPI, CPI
JP225: Japan PPI
NZD: RBNZ rate decision
US500: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony, Fed speech

Thursday,11th July

GER40: Germany CPI
JP225: Japan core machine orders
NZD: New Zealand food prices
ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production
UK100: UK industrial production
US500: US June CPI report, Fed speech

Friday, 12th July

SG20: Singapore GDP
CN50: China trade
JP225: Japan industrial production
USDInd: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, PPI
US500: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo earnings

All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data, Powell’s testimony and earnings announcements by big US banks which could move the US500.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signalling that prices are heavily overbought, could a technical pullback be on the horizon?

Note: A pullback is a temporary pause or decline in an asset’s overall bullish trend.

These 3 factors may influence the US500 outlook in the week ahead:

1) US June CPI report

The incoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to impact bets around when the Fed will start cutting interest rates in H2.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (June 2024 vs. June 2023) to cool 3.1% from 3.3% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 3.4%.
CPI month-on-month (June 2024 vs May 2024) to rise 0.1% from 0% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.2%.

Expectations around lower US interest rates have been one of the driving forces behind the US500 rally in 2024. This is because the index has a handful of tech stocks that remain sensitive to US rates. Digging deeper, tech accounts for 33% of the US500 value!

The US500 could dip if the inflation numbers print above market forecasts.

Should the CPI report show more evidence of disinflation, the US500 may receive a boost.

Note: Before the key US inflation data on Thursday, the US500 may be influenced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony earlier in the week. Should he strike a dovish tone, US equity bulls are likely to receive a boost, and vice versa.

2) Big bank earnings

It’s that time of the year again…

Second quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday 12th July, led by the biggest US banks.

Heavyweights such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup and will be under the spotlight. Investors will closely comb over their earnings for fresh insight into the health of US banks which can be used to gauge the health of the US economy.

When factoring in how financial stocks make up over 12% of the US500, the incoming bank earnings could spark some volatility.

US500 may push higher if bank earnings beat estimates.

Should earnings disappoint, US500 bears could return to the scene.

3) Technical forces

The US500 is firmly bullish on the weekly and daily timeframe. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70 – indicating that prices are heavily overbought.

Note: US500 tracks the underlying S&P 500 index

After recently hitting record highs, the index is trading around unchartered territories.

Should 5500 prove to be reliable support, bulls could challenge 5600.

A decline below 5500 may open a path toward 5460 and 5400.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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02 Jul

From diagnosing brain disorders to cognitive enhancement, 100 years of EEG have transformed neuroscience

By Erika Nyhus, Bowdoin College

Electroencephalography, or EEG, was invented 100 years ago. In the years since the invention of this device to monitor brain electricity, it has had an incredible impact on how scientists study the human brain.

Since its first use, the EEG has shaped researchers’ understanding of cognition, from perception to memory. It has also been important for diagnosing and guiding treatment of multiple brain disorders, including epilepsy.

I am a cognitive neuroscientist who uses EEG to study how people remember events from their past. The EEG’s 100-year anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on this discovery’s significance in neuroscience and medicine.

Discovery of EEG

On July 6, 1924, psychiatrist Hans Berger performed the first EEG recording on a human, a 17-year-old boy undergoing neurosurgery. At the time, Berger and other researchers were performing electrical recordings on the brains of animals.

What set Berger apart was his obsession with finding the physical basis of what he called psychic energy, or mental effort, in people. Through a series of experiments spanning his early career, Berger measured brain volume and temperature to study changes in mental processes such as intellectual work, attention and desire.

He then turned to recording electrical activity. Though he recorded the first traces of EEG in the human brain in 1924, he did not publish the results until 1929. Those five intervening years were a tortuous phase of self-doubt about the source of the EEG signal in the brain and refining the experimental setup. Berger recorded hundreds of EEGs on multiple subjects, including his own children, with both experimental successes and setbacks.

This is among the first EEG readings published in Hans Berger's study. The top trace is the EGG while the bottom is a reference trace of 10 Hz. — Two EEG traces, the top more irregular in rhythm than the bottom.
Hans Berger/Über das Elektrenkephalogramm des Menchen. Archives für Psychiatrie. 1929; 87:527-70 via Wikimedia Commons

Finally convinced of his results, he published a series of papers in the journal Archiv für Psychiatrie and had hopes of winning a Nobel Prize. Unfortunately, the research community doubted his results, and years passed before anyone else started using EEG in their own research.

Berger was eventually nominated for a Nobel Prize in 1940. But Nobels were not awarded that year in any category due to World War II and Germany’s occupation of Norway.

Neural oscillations

When many neurons are active at the same time, they produce an electrical signal strong enough to spread instantaneously through the conductive tissue of the brain, skull and scalp. EEG electrodes placed on the head can record these electrical signals.

Since the discovery of EEG, researchers have shown that neural activity oscillates at specific frequencies. In his initial EEG recordings in 1924, Berger noted the predominance of oscillatory activity that cycled eight to 12 times per second, or 8 to 12 hertz, named alpha oscillations. Since the discovery of alpha rhythms, there have been many attempts to understand how and why neurons oscillate.

Neural oscillations are thought to be important for effective communication between specialized brain regions. For example, theta oscillations that cycle at 4 to 8 hertz are important for communication between brain regions involved in memory encoding and retrieval in animals and humans.

Researchers then examined whether they could alter neural oscillations and therefore affect how neurons talk to each other. Studies have shown that many behavioral and noninvasive methods can alter neural oscillations and lead to changes in cognitive performance. Engaging in specific mental activities can induce neural oscillations in the frequencies those mental activities use. For example, my team’s research found that mindfulness meditation can increase theta frequency oscillations and improve memory retrieval.

Noninvasive brain stimulation methods can target frequencies of interest. For example, my team’s ongoing research found that brain stimulation at theta frequency can lead to improved memory retrieval.

EEG has also led to major discoveries about how the brain processes information in many other cognitive domains, including how people perceive the world around them, how they focus their attention, how they communicate through language and how they process emotions.

Diagnosing and treating brain disorders

EEG is commonly used today to diagnose sleep disorders and epilepsy and to guide brain disorder treatments.

Scientists are using EEG to see whether memory can be improved with noninvasive brain stimulation. Although the research is still in its infancy, there have been some promising results. For example, one study found that noninvasive brain stimulation at gamma frequency – 25 hertz – improved memory and neurotransmitter transmission in Alzheimer’s disease.

A new type of noninvasive brain stimulation called temporal interference uses two high frequencies to cause neural activity equal to the difference between the stimulation frequencies. The high frequencies can better penetrate the brain and reach the targeted area. Researchers recently tested this method in people using 2,000 hertz and 2,005 hertz to send 5 hertz theta frequency at a key brain region for memory, the hippocampus. This led to improvements in remembering the name associated with a face.

Although these results are promising, more research is needed to understand the exact role neural oscillations play in cognition and whether altering them can lead to long-lasting cognitive enhancement.

The future of EEG

The 100-year anniversary of the EEG provides an opportunity to consider what it has taught us about brain function and what this technique can do in the future.

In a survey commissioned by the journal Nature Human Behaviour, over 500 researchers who use EEG in their work were asked to make predictions on the future of the technique. What will be possible in the next 100 years of EEG?

Some researchers, including myself, predict that we’ll use EEG to diagnose and create targeted treatments for brain disorders. Others anticipate that an affordable, wearable EEG will be widely used to enhance cognitive function at home or will be seamlessly integrated into virtual reality applications. The possibilities are vast.

About the Author:

Erika Nyhus, Associate Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience, Bowdoin College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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