Opinions

Archive for Opinions – Page 25

Week Ahead: Dollar braces for massive week of risk events

FXTM’s USDInd ↓ 1% MTD
Geopolitical risk + Fed decision = fresh volatility?
Over past year Fed decision triggered moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 0.8%
GBP + JPY + CHF + SEK = 33% of USDInd weight
Technical levels: 98.00, 98.70 and 50-day SMA

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have put financial markets in a chokehold, with investors steering clear of riskier assets.

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program sites early Friday morning. In response, Iran has launched over 100 drones.

Mounting geopolitical risk, major central bank decisions and top-tier data could provide fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead:

Sunday, 15th June

G7 Leaders’s Summit

Monday, 16th June

CN50: China retail sales, industrial production
USDInd: US Empire Manufacturing

Tuesday, 17th June

GER40: Germany ZEW survey expectations
JPY: BoJ rate decision
NZD: New Zealand food prices
US500: US retail sales, business inventories, industrial production

Wednesday, 18th June

EUR: Eurozone CPI
JP225: Japan machinery orders, trade
ZAR: South Africa retail sales, CPI
SEK: Sweden rate decision
UK100: UK CPI
US500: Fed decision, initial jobless claims

Thursday, 19th June

AUD: Australia unemployment
NZD: New Zealand GDP
CHF: Switzerland rate decision
TWN: Taiwan rate decision
GBP: BoE rate decision
Juneteenth federal holiday in US – equity markets closed

Friday, 20th June

CN50: China loan prime rates
CAD: Canada retail sales, materials prices
EU50: Eurozone consumer confidence
JPY: Japan CPI
UK100: UK retail sales
RUS2000: US Conf. Board leading index, Philadelphia Fed services

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s USDInd, which is attempting to rebound from a 3-year low.

Note: FXTM’s USDInd measures how the dollar performs against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar, Swedish krona & Swiss franc.

Here is how they are weighted:

Euro: 57.6%
JPY: 13.6%
GBP: 11.9%
CAD: 9.1%
SEK: 4.2%
CHF: 3.6%

Geopolitical tensions and central bank decisions could spell fresh volatility for the USDInd.

Here are 4 reasons why:

1) Israel-Iran conflict

A major escalation of tensions in the Middle East has sparked a risk-off mood, with uncertainty fuelling appetite for safe-haven assets.

Should the situation worsen and risk spilling over into a wider conflict, investors may rush toward safe-haven destinations like the US dollar.
Signs of easing tensions may lift the market mood, weakening the dollar as appetite for safe-haven assets cools.

2) Fed rate decision

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged in June, but the updated dot plot and Jerome Powell’s press conference may shape the dollar’s outlook.

Note: The latest US CPI report increased less than expected in May with traders currently pricing in 2 Fed cuts for 2025. To add, the Fed is not expected to cut rates until September 2025.

The USDInd could jump if the updated “dot plot” signals only one rate cut in 2025 and Powell strikes a hawkish note.
Should Powell strike a dovish note and signal lower rates down the line, the dollar may weaken.

Over the past 12 months, the Fed decision has triggered upside moves on the USDInd of as much as 0.4% or declines of 0.8% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Note: The US Empire Manufacturing report on Monday, US retail sales report on Tuesday, initial jobless claims on Wednesday and US Conf. Board leading index published Friday may influence the dollar’s performance.

3) BoE, BoJ, SNB & Riksbank decisions

The Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Swedish National Bank and Riksbank all have their policy decisions. Markets expect the BoE and BoJ to leave rates unchanged, but both the SNB and Riksbank are expected to cut rates.

It is worth noting that the GBP, JPY, SEK and CHF make up roughly 33% of the USDInd weighting.

So, these central bank decisions could translate to additional volatility for the USDInd.

4) Technical forces

FXTM’s USDInd is respecting a bearish channel on the daily charts. However, the Relative Strength Index is close to 30 – signalling that prices are nearly oversold.

A solid breakout and daily close above 98.70 could signal a move back toward the 50-day SMA at 100.00 and 100.80.
Sustained weakness below 98.00 could see prices decline back toward 97.65, 97.00 and 96.00 – a level not seen since February 2022.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

13 Jun

Oil prices jumped to $75 per barrel. Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear infrastructure

By JustMarkets

At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.24%. The S&P500 (US500) Index rose by 0.38%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology index closed higher by 0.24%, helped by a 13% rise in Oracle shares after strong quarterly results and an encouraging forecast for cloud technology growth driven by demand for AI. However, Boeing shares fell 4.7% after the fatal crash of Air India’s Dreamliner aircraft, which put pressure on the Dow Jones index.

Economic data showed further signs of weakening inflation: the producer price index rose by only 0.1% in May, raising hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. President Trump reiterated that he insists on a significant rate cut and confirmed plans to send letters regarding tariffs to US trading partners, expressing confidence that trade relations with China will be normalized. Initial jobless claims in the US for the first week of June remained at 248,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised figure and defying market expectations of a decline to 240,000. The figure remained at its highest level since early October 2024, signaling the first signs of easing in the labor market amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

In June, the Canadian dollar rose to around 1.36 per US dollar, its strongest level in eight months, primarily due to the weakening of the US dollar resulting from lower-than-expected inflation in the US and a reassessment of Fed policy. Domestically, the Bank of Canada’s decision in June to hold rates steady, abandoning its tightening bias, underscored a shift toward neutrality, narrowing the policy gap with the Fed and boosting the loonie.

Bitcoin fell to around US$103,700, continuing the losses of recent sessions and reaching a two-week low, as escalating geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty triggered risk aversion. Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran and its declaration of a state of emergency increased the risk of imminent Iranian retaliation. In addition to broader market risks, President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs as the deadline for trade deals approached in early July.

European stock markets were mostly lower yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.74%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.14%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) lost 0.32%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.23%. President Donald Trump announced plans to send letters to major trading partners within a week or two, specifying unilateral tariffs that would be imposed. This move added uncertainty to global trade dynamics. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs could be extended for countries showing “goodwill” in negotiations.

On Friday, WTI crude oil futures jumped to around $75 per barrel, reaching their highest level since January, driven by fears of supply disruptions after Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran. The prospect of a wider Middle East conflict threatens to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a key route through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows.

Asian markets declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.65%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.31% on Thursday.

The Australian dollar fell to $0.649 on Friday, reversing the previous session’s gains amid weakening risk sentiment amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The sharp escalation followed Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran, targeting Tehran’s nuclear program and vowing to continue operations until the threat is neutralized. This move fueled fears of retaliation by Iran and a broader regional conflict, putting pressure on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,045.23 +22.99 (+0.38%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,967.62 +101.85 (+0.24%)

DAX (DE40) 23,771.45 −177.45 (−0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,884.92 +20.57 (+0.23%)

USD index 97.93 −0.70 (−0.70%)

News feed for: 2025.06.13

Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Energy Opinions

10 Jun

Why the global tax system needs fixing – podcast

By Mend Mariwany, The Conversation

For decades, multinational corporations have used sophisticated strategies to shift profits away from where they do business. As a result, countries around the world lose an estimated US$500 billion annually in unpaid taxes, with developing nations hit particularly hard.

In the first of two episodes for The Conversation Weekly podcast called The 15% solution, we explore how companies have exploited loopholes in the global tax system. The episode features insights from Annette Alstadsæter, director of the Centre for Tax Research at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, and Tarcisio Diniz Magalhaes, a professor of tax law at the University of Antwerp in Belgium.

The problem goes beyond clever accounting. Our international tax rules were built for an industrial age where companies were physically present where they operated. But today’s tech giants can generate billions in revenue from users around the world, without having a single employee or office there, leaving those nations unable to tax those profits at all.

In 2021, after years of international negotiations, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development unveiled a global tax deal designed to address tax avoidance through a minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. But will this new framework actually work? And what happens when major economies refuse to participate?

Across two episodes, The 15% solution explores why a new global tax regime is needed, whether it can fix a broken system, and what’s at stake if it fails. Part two will be published on June 6.

This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Mend Mariwany. Gemma Ware is the executive producer. Mixing and sound design by Eloise Stevens and theme music by Neeta Sarl.

Newsclips in this episode from NBC News, France24, BBC News, DW News and TRT World.

Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here. A transcript of this episode is available on Apple Podcasts.

Mend Mariwany, Producer, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

08 Jun

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (3,290 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,047 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (712 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (703 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-16,046 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,863 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,548 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-1,975 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-583 contracts), the British Pound (-164 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-38 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

Highlighting the Currency Speculator data this week, was a bounce back into bullish territory for the U.S. Dollar Index. This week’s data marks the first bullish level in the past seven weeks as speculators have now advanced their weekly bullish bets modestly for a fourth straight week.

The U.S. Dollar has been on the defensive against most of the other major currencies this year and the Dollar Index price has fallen under the significant psychological level of 100.00 for the first time since July of 2023. The U.S. Dollar is currently down approximately 10% since the beginning of the new year coinciding with a dip in speculator sentiment as well.

Roundup: Currency Speculator Positioning

Japanese Yen: – Speculators pulled back somewhat sharply in the latest data (-12,863 contracts). The yen continues to have an extreme bullish strength score with the speculator position near the top of its range of over +151,000 net contracts.
Brazilian Real: – Speculators dropped their bullish bets also relatively sharply in the latest data. The BRL is coming off of a record high speculator position in the past couple of months.
Euro: – The 2nd most bullish currency (after the yen) with a net position of over 80,000 contracts. The Euro has advanced by over 11% this year and the price trend has been mostly consolidating between the 1.12 – 1.15 area in recent weeks.
Mexican Peso: – The Peso continues to be in a bullish position, near +65,000 contracts after a gain of 3,000 contracts this week.
British Pound Sterling: Rounds out the bullish currencies with a +35,000 net speculator contract position. The GBP has gained by over 10% this year and is now trading at the highest level since 2022 above 1.3500.
Swiss Franc: The CHF remains in a bearish net position despite the strength of its currency which has risen over 10% this year. The CHF trades near the highest levels since 2015.
New Zealand and Australian Dollars: – These currencies continue to have negative net speculator positions, although both currencies have seen their prices on the uptrend since the beginning of the new year.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance:

– The Brazilian Real rose by over 2.35% in the past 5 days.
– The Mexican Peso was up by 1.5%.
– The Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Euro, the British Pound, the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar all were higher by less than 1%.
– The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a small decline on the week.
– Bitcoin was also virtually unchanged, while the Japanese Yen fell by -0.5%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (92 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the EuroFX (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Bitcoin (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.5 percent)
EuroFX (60.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (59.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (92.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (95.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.6 percent)
Bitcoin (0.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.7 percent)

Mexican Peso, GBP & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (12 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) and the US Dollar Index (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (6.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (7.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-7.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-9.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-6.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-32.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-62.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.2	28.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	25.2	13.2
– Net Position:	617	968	-1,585
– Gross Longs:	15,748	8,021	2,123
– Gross Shorts:	15,131	7,053	3,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	96.0	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-2.0	-7.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 82,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	56.0	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	73.7	5.8
– Net Position:	82,764	-138,285	55,521
– Gross Longs:	202,786	437,677	100,625
– Gross Shorts:	120,022	575,962	45,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	34.1	96.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-6.9	5.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	31.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	52.9	9.9
– Net Position:	35,215	-48,965	13,750
– Gross Longs:	103,672	74,588	36,963
– Gross Shorts:	68,457	123,553	23,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	43.6	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-9.7	18.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 151,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	27.4	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	75.3	5.5
– Net Position:	151,149	-175,508	24,359
– Gross Longs:	189,514	100,151	44,497
– Gross Shorts:	38,365	275,659	20,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	6.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.4	2.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	63.8	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	32.0	18.7
– Net Position:	-26,066	25,884	182
– Gross Longs:	7,145	51,879	15,409
– Gross Shorts:	33,211	25,995	15,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	41.7	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-1.4	6.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -108,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	79.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	38.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-108,446	110,625	-2,179
– Gross Longs:	18,667	214,704	23,967
– Gross Shorts:	127,113	104,079	26,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	60.5	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	15.9	10.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	64.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	34.3	10.5
– Net Position:	-63,155	61,195	1,960
– Gross Longs:	23,969	130,735	23,307
– Gross Shorts:	87,124	69,540	21,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.4	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.4	-5.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,386 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	41.1	6.4
– Net Position:	-23,674	23,601	73
– Gross Longs:	9,531	51,514	4,419
– Gross Shorts:	33,205	27,913	4,346
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	60.7	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-4.3	8.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	32.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	72.4	2.1
– Net Position:	64,449	-66,946	2,497
– Gross Longs:	93,401	55,198	6,108
– Gross Shorts:	28,952	122,144	3,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	39.8	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-12.6	7.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.3	30.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	70.6	1.0
– Net Position:	30,793	-33,919	3,126
– Gross Longs:	54,954	26,403	4,014
– Gross Shorts:	24,161	60,322	888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	29.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	14.2	7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.9	8.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.7	1.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,312	1,949	363
– Gross Longs:	24,084	2,407	1,341
– Gross Shorts:	26,396	458	978
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	5.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	29.8	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Brent, Silver, Ultra 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 37 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 10,280 net contracts this week with a gain of 14,712 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225* speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 35 points at last data. The speculator position registered 1,904 net contracts with a recent weekly change of 2,025 contracts in speculator bets.

* Note: The Nikkei 225 (USD) has not been updated by the CFTC recently – likely due to lack of open interest. The Nikkei 225 levels on the charts this week reflect the last provided data. We will look to swap in the Nikkei 225 Yen contracts in future updates which has a higher open interest.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level now resides at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 20 points this week while the overall speculator position was 60,770 net contracts this week with a boost by 7,758 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position has cooled off a bit but does come in at number four in the extreme standings this week. The JPY speculator level is at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -7 points this week. The overall speculator position was 151,149 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -12,863 contracts in the speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level now sits at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed a gain of 18 points this week.

The speculator position was 2,201 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,337 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56 points this week. The overall speculator position was -371,588 net contracts this week with a reduction by -73,325 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is also at a 0 percent minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9 points this week while the speculator position was -2,396,536 net contracts this week with a change of -63,299 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the speculator level resides at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,312 net contracts this week with a dip of -38 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -54,519 net contracts this week with a decrease by -5,366 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain by 3 points this week. The speculator position was 617 net contracts this week with an advance by 703 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

05 Jun

How your electric bill may be paying for big data centers’ energy use

By Ari Peskoe, Harvard University and Eliza Martin, Harvard University

In the race to develop artificial intelligence, large technology companies such as Google and Meta are trying to secure massive amounts of electricity to power new data centers. Electric utilities see the prospect of earning large profits by providing electricity to these power-hungry facilities and are competing for their business by offering discounts not available to average consumers.

In our paper Extracting Profits from the Public, we explain how utilities are forcing regular ratepayers to pay for the discounts enjoyed by some of the nation’s largest companies and identify ways policymakers can limit the costs to the public.

Shifting costs

In much of the U.S., utilities are monopolists. Within their service territories, they are the only companies allowed to deliver electricity to consumers. To fund their operations, utilities split the costs of maintaining and expanding their systems among all ratepayers – homeowners, businesses, warehouses, factories and anyone else who uses electricity.

Historically, a utility expanded its system to meet growing demand for electricity from new factories, businesses and homes. To pay for its expansion − new power plants, new transmission lines and other equipment − the utility would propose to raise electricity rates by different amounts for various types of consumers.

Public utility commissions are state agencies charged with ensuring that the public gets a fair deal. These commissions monitor how much money the utility spends to provide electric service and how its costs are shared among various types of ratepayers, including residential, commercial and industrial consumers. Ultimately, the public utility commission is supposed to approve any rate increases based on its assessment of what’s fair to consumers.

Splitting the utility’s costs among all consumers made perfect sense when population growth and economic development across the economy stimulated the need for new infrastructure. But today, in many utility service territories, most of the projected growth in electricity demand is due to new data centers.

Here’s the problem for consumers: To meet data center demand, utilities are building new power plants and power lines that are needed only because of data center growth. If state regulators allow utilities to follow the standard approach of splitting the costs of new infrastructure among all consumers, the public will end up paying to supply data centers with all that power.

A big price tag

One particularly acute example is in Louisiana. A Meta data center under development in the northeastern corner of the state is projected to use, by our calculations, twice as much energy as the city of New Orleans.

Entergy, the regional monopoly utility, is proposing to build more than US$3 billion worth of new gas-fired power plants and delivery infrastructure to meet the data center’s energy demand. Rather than billing Meta directly for these costs, Entergy is proposing to include the costs in rates paid by all customers.

Entergy claims its contract with Meta will cover some portion of the $3 billion price tag and that will mitigate any increases in consumers’ bills. But Entergy has asked state regulators to keep key terms of the contract secret, and only a redacted version of its application is available online.

The public has no idea how much it might pay if the commission approves the contract. And if the Meta data center ends up using much less power than the company anticipates, the public does not know whether it would be on the hook to pay higher electricity rates for longer periods to guarantee Entergy a profit.

Secret agreements

Our research, reviewing nearly 50 public utility commission proceedings about data centers’ power needs across 10 states, uncovered dozens of secretive contracts between utilities and data centers. Unlike Louisiana, most states require utilities to submit to the public utility commission their one-off deals with data centers, but they allow utilities to conceal the pricing terms from the public.

In normal rate-review cases, numerous parties advocate for their interests in a public proceeding, including members of the public, industry groups and the utility itself. But as our paper finds, utility commission reviews of data center contracts are based on confidential utility filings that are inaccessible to the general public. Few, if any, outsiders participate, and as a result the commission often hears only the utility’s version of the deal.

Because the pricing terms are secret, it is impossible to know whether the deal that a utility is offering to a data center is too low to cover the utility’s costs of providing power to the data center, which would mean that the public is subsidizing the deal. History shows, however, that utilities have a long history of exploiting their monopolies to shift costs to the public, including through secret contracts.

Other public costs

Our paper also explores other ways that the public pays for data center energy costs. For instance, many high-voltage interstate transmission projects, which connect large power plants to local delivery systems, are developed through regional planning processes run by numerous utilities. These alliances have complex rules for splitting the costs of new transmission lines and equipment among their utility members.

Once a utility is charged its share, it spreads the costs of new transmission projects among its local ratepayers. Because some regions are building new transmission capacity to accommodate data centers, our analysis finds that the public has been forced to pay billions of dollars for data center growth.

Data center energy costs can also be shifted when data centers connect directly to existing power plants. Under what are called “co-location” deals, the power plant stops selling energy to the wider public and just sells to the data center. With less supply in the overall market, prices go up and the public faces higher bills as a result.

Many state legislatures are noticing these problems and working to figure out how to address them. Several recent bills would set new terms and conditions for future data center deals that could help protect the public from data center energy costs.

About the Author:

Ari Peskoe, Lecturer on Law, Harvard University and Eliza Martin, Legal Fellow, Environmental and Energy Law Program, Harvard University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

04 Jun

Broadcom hits fresh all-time highs ahead of key earnings

By ForexTime

Broadcom shares ↑ 85% from 2025 low, recently touching a fresh ATH
Company to release fiscal Q2 earnings after US markets close Thursday 5th June
Beyond earnings, all eyes on hyperscalers collaboration and VMware
Broadcom share price forecasted to move 6.5% up/down post earnings
Wall Street analysts remain firmly bullish on stock

Broadcom is set to release its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings after US markets close on Thursday 5th June.

Shares of the chipmaker are up over 10% year-to-date, recently touching a fresh all-time high above $256.

Zooming out, Broadcom shares have rebounded more than 85% from the 2025 low – fuelled by demand for AI.

Broadcom fiscal Q2 earnings: What to look out for

Broadcom designs, develops and supplies various semiconductor devices with Nvidia, Qualcomm and TSMC among a handful of its biggest competitors.

Its core customers are the trillion-dollar titans – Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet.

The chipmaker’s earnings release may reconfirm the strong demand for artificial intelligence following Nvidia’s blowout earnings last week.

Market expectations…

Wall Street expects the chipmaker to post strong earnings thanks to robust demand for AI.

Revenue: forecasted at $15 billion versus $12.5 billion a year ago

Earnings per share (EPS): forecasted at $1.56 versus $1.10 a year ago

Key challenges

Ongoing uncertainty around tariffs could disrupt supply chains and company profits.

Intense competition from Nvidia, which is now the most valuable company in the world.

Hyperscalers and VMware integration

Investors will be paying close attention to Broadcom’s AI-related revenues and collaboration with leading hyperscalers which could boost revenue streams.
On June 3rd, Broadcom announced that it is now shipping its new Tomahawk 6 switch series chips, delivering world’s first 102.4 terabits/sec of switching capacity in a single chip
VMware momentum is expected to roll over into Q2 with the segment expected to contribute roughly $4.3 billion in revenue.

How will Broadcom react to earnings

Markets currently predict that Broadcom’s stock could move 6.5% up or down when US markets reopen on Friday, 6th June.

BULLISH: Should Broadcom’s past quarterly results and forward guidance boost confidence in its business outlook, this could push prices higher.

Using Tuesday’s closing price of $256.75 as a reference point, a 6.5% climb would see this stock reach a fresh all-time high at $273.44.

BEARISH: Should Broadcom announce disappointing results, prices may tumble.

A 6.5% decline from $256.75 may drag prices to $240.1.

Over the next 12 months….

Wall Street analysts remain bullish on this stock.

46 “Buy” calls

4 “Hold”

1 “Sells”

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

30 May

Top Healthcare Companies scored from recent earnings including Humana

By InvestMacro Research

Earnings season continues on and our latest update highlights some of the top companies that have been recently added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist.

Today, we have a selection of healthcare companies. The healthcare sector has been one of the weak links so far this year among the sector stock indexes and is considered a defensive stock category (in favor when growth and stocks are not under pressure).

The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm. The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our of Top Healthcare Stocks scored in Q1 2025:

CONMED Corporation
Novartis AG
Novo Nordisk A/S
CVS Health Corporation
Humana Inc.

CONMED Corporation (CNMD):

CONMED Corporation (Symbol: CNMD) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CNMD scored a 68 in our fundamental rating system on May 1st.

At time of writing, only 4.44% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 3 times and rose by 8 system points from our last update.

CNMD is a Small Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for CNMD is Medical – Devices.

ConMed sports a PE ratio of approximately 15.64. The dividend yield at this moment is 1.39% with a dividend payout ratio around 20%. ConMed has beaten analyst earnings expectations 4 quarters in a row.

On a price return basis, ConMed has fared worse than its healthcare benchmark with a 52-week price return of over -23% compared to the healthcare benchmark which has fallen almost -9% in the past 52 weeks.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

CONMED Corporation, a medical technology company, develops, manufactures, and sells surgical devices and related equipment for surgical procedures worldwide. Company Website: https://www.conmed.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: CONMED Corporation (CNMD) 15.64 -23.03
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

Novartis AG (NVS):

Novartis AG (Symbol: NVS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. NVS scored a 77 in our fundamental rating system on April 30th.

At time of writing, only 1.81% of stocks have scored a 70 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 9 times and rose by 20 system points from our last update.

NVS is a Mega Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for NVS is Drug Manufacturers – General.

Novatis (NVS) is a company with a PE ratio of 17.43. The current dividend yield is approximately 3.50%. This company is a mega cap and has seen its EPS beat analysts’ expectations for 4 quarters in a row. The payout ratio currently is approximately 65%.

The NVS price return has beaten the healthcare benchmark over the last 52 weeks with a return of over 11% compared to a -9% benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, and markets healthcare products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Innovative Medicines and Sandoz. The Innovative Medicines segment offers prescription medicines for patients and healthcare providers. Company Website: https://www.novartis.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: Novartis AG (NVS) 17.43 11.14
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO):

Novo Nordisk A/S (Symbol: NVO) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. NVO scored a 65 in our fundamental rating system on May 8th.

At time of writing, only 4.44% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 4 times and rose by 62 system points from our last update.

NVO is a Mega Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for NVO is Drug Manufacturers – General.

Novo Nordisk (NVO), a healthcare company out of Denmark that engages in the manufacturing distribution of pharmaceutical products. The PE ratio for NVO is approximately 20.50. The dividend yield comes in at approximately 2.43% with a payout ratio on its dividend near 51%. NVO has beaten analysts’ earnings expectations 3 out of the last 4 quarters and for the last 3 quarters in a row.

NVO has significantly underperformed the benchmark over the last 52 weeks with an almost -50% return over that time compared to the -9% for the healthcare benchmark. NVO had previously surged higher with a return of over +200% from September 2022 to June 2024 before retreating lower.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, North America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Diabetes and Obesity Care, and Rare Disease. Company Website: https://www.novonordisk.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) 20.58 -49.47
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

CVS Health Corporation (CVS):

CVS Health Corporation (Symbol: CVS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CVS scored a 55 in our fundamental rating system on May 2nd.

At time of writing, only 7.77% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 4 times and rose by 9 system points from our last update.

CVS is a Large Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for CVS is Medical – Healthcare Plans.

CVS has a PE ratio of just below 15.00 at the moment. The dividend yield for CVS is 4.30% with a payout ratio of around 63%. CVS has beaten analysts’ expectations 3 out of the last 4 quarters.

CVS has beaten the healthcare benchmark with a 12% return over the last 52 weeks compared to the -9% healthcare benchmark price return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

CVS Health Corporation provides health services in the United States. The company’s Health Care Benefits segment offers traditional, voluntary, and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services. Company Website: https://www.cvshealth.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: CVS Health Corporation (CVS) 14.92 12.26
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

Humana Inc. (HUM):

Humana Inc. (Symbol: HUM) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. HUM scored a 57 in our fundamental rating system on May 1st.

At time of writing, only 7.77% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 62 system points from our last update.

HUM is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for HUM is Medical – Healthcare Plans.

Humana (HUM) has a PE ratio of 16.11. The estimated yield is 1.45% with a dividend payout ratio of right around 25%. Humana has beaten analysts’ expectations for 4 quarters in a row on its earnings per share. Argus Research and Refinitiv/Verus recently upgraded Humana to BUY.

Humana has fared worse than the healthcare benchmark over the last 52 weeks with a return of roughly -35% compared to the price return for the healthcare benchmark of approximately -9%.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Humana Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health and well-being company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail, Group and Specialty, and Healthcare Services. The company offers medical and supplemental benefit plans to individuals. Company Website: https://www.humana.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: Humana Inc. (HUM) 16.11 -35.14
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

Risk Disclosure: Stock Market trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Stock Market trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the stock market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with stock market trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

Healthcare Opinions Stock Market News

30 May

Managing forests and other ecosystems under rising threats requires thinking across wide-ranging scenarios

By Kyra Clark-Wolf, University of Colorado Boulder; Brian W. Miller, U.S. Geological Survey, and Imtiaz Rangwala, University of Colorado Boulder

In Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California, trees that have persisted through rain and shine for thousands of years are now facing multiple threats triggered by a changing climate.

Scientists and park managers once thought giant sequoia forests nearly impervious to stressors like wildfire, drought and pests. Yet, even very large trees are proving vulnerable, particularly when those stressors are amplified by rising temperatures and increasing weather extremes.

The rapid pace of climate change – combined with threats like the spread of invasive species and diseases – can affect ecosystems in ways that defy expectations based on past experiences. As a result, Western forests are transitioning to grasslands or shrublands after unprecedented wildfires. Woody plants are expanding into coastal wetlands. Coral reefs are being lost entirely.

To protect these places, which are valued for their natural beauty and the benefits they provide for recreation, clean water and wildlife, forest and land managers increasingly must anticipate risks they have never seen before. And they must prepare for what those risks will mean for stewardship as ecosystems rapidly transform.

As ecologists and a climate scientist, we’re helping them figure out how to do that.

Thinking through scenarios allows land managers to prepare for many potential outcomes.
Benjamin Slyngstad via USGS

Managing changing ecosystems

Traditional management approaches focus on maintaining or restoring how ecosystems looked and functioned historically.

However, that doesn’t always work when ecosystems are subjected to new and rapidly shifting conditions.

Ecosystems have many moving parts – plants, animals, fungi and microbes; and the soil, air and water in which they live – that interact with one another in complex ways.

When the climate changes, it’s like shifting the ground on which everything rests. The results can undermine the integrity of the system, leading to ecological changes that are hard to predict.

To plan for an uncertain future, natural resource managers need to consider many different ways changes in climate and ecosystems could affect their landscapes. Essentially, what scenarios are possible?

Preparing for multiple possibilities

At Sequoia and Kings Canyon, park managers were aware that climate change posed some big risks to the iconic trees under their care. More than a decade ago, they undertook a major effort to explore different scenarios that could play out in the future.

It’s a good thing they did, because some of the more extreme possibilities they imagined happened sooner than expected.

In 2014, drought in California caused the giant sequoias’ foliage to die back, something never documented before. In 2017, sequoia trees began dying from insect damage. And, in 2020 and 2021, fires burned through sequoia groves, killing thousands of ancient trees.

While these extreme events came as a surprise to many people, thinking through the possibilities ahead of time meant the park managers had already begun to take steps that proved beneficial. One example was prioritizing prescribed burns to remove undergrowth that could fuel hotter, more destructive fires.

The key to effective planning is a thoughtful consideration of a suite of strategies that are likely to succeed in the face of many different changes in climates and ecosystems. That involves thinking through wide-ranging potential outcomes to see how different strategies might fare under each scenario – including preparing for catastrophic possibilities, even those considered unlikely.

For example, prescribed burning may reduce risks from both catastrophic wildfire and drought by reducing the density of plant growth, whereas suppressing all fires could increase those risks in the long run.

Strategies undertaken today have consequences for decades to come. Managers need to have confidence that they are making good investments when they put limited resources toward actions like forest thinning, invasive species control, buying seeds or replanting trees. Scenarios can help inform those investment choices.

Constructing credible scenarios of ecological change to inform this type of planning requires considering the most important unknowns. Scenarios look not only at how the climate could change, but also how complex ecosystems could react and what surprises might lay beyond the horizon.

A chart shows different ecological changes — Scientists at the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center are collaborating with managers in the Nebraska Sandhills to develop scenarios of future ecological change under different climate conditions, disturbance events like fires and extreme droughts, and land uses like grazing.
Photos: T. Walz, M. Lavin, C. Helzer, O. Richmond, NPS (top to bottom)., CC BY

Key ingredients for crafting ecological scenarios

To provide some guidance to people tasked with managing these landscapes, we brought together a group of experts in ecology, climate science, and natural resource management from across universities and government agencies.

We identified three key ingredients for constructing credible ecological scenarios:

1. Embracing ecological uncertainty: Instead of banking on one “most likely” outcome for ecosystems in a changing climate, managers can better prepare by mapping out multiple possibilities. In Nebraska’s Sandhills, we are exploring how this mostly intact native prairie could transform, with outcomes as divergent as woodlands and open dunes.

2. Thinking in trajectories: It’s helpful to consider not just the outcomes, but also the potential pathways for getting there. Will ecological changes unfold gradually or all at once? By envisioning different pathways through which ecosystems might respond to climate change and other stressors, natural resource managers can identify critical moments where specific actions, such as removing tree seedlings encroaching into grasslands, can steer ecosystems toward a more desirable future.

3. Preparing for surprises: Planning for rare disasters or sudden species collapses helps managers respond nimbly when the unexpected strikes, such as a severe drought leading to widespread erosion. Being prepared for abrupt changes and having contingency plans can mean the difference between quickly helping an ecosystem recover and losing it entirely.

Over the past decade, access to climate model projections through easy-to-use websites has revolutionized resource managers’ ability to explore different scenarios of how the local climate might change.

What managers are missing today is similar access to ecological model projections and tools that can help them anticipate possible changes in ecosystems. To bridge this gap, we believe the scientific community should prioritize developing ecological projections and decision-support tools that can empower managers to plan for ecological uncertainty with greater confidence and foresight.

Ecological scenarios don’t eliminate uncertainty, but they can help to navigate it more effectively by identifying strategic actions to manage forests and other ecosystems.

About the Author:

Kyra Clark-Wolf, Research Scientist in Ecological Transformation, University of Colorado Boulder; Brian W. Miller, Research Ecologist, U.S. Geological Survey, and Imtiaz Rangwala, Research Scientist in Climate, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

30 May

Weaponized storytelling: How AI is helping researchers sniff out disinformation campaigns

By Mark Finlayson, Florida International University and Azwad Anjum Islam, Florida International University

It is not often that cold, hard facts determine what people care most about and what they believe. Instead, it is the power and familiarity of a well-told story that reigns supreme. Whether it’s a heartfelt anecdote, a personal testimony or a meme echoing familiar cultural narratives, stories tend to stick with us, move us and shape our beliefs.

This characteristic of storytelling is precisely what can make it so dangerous when wielded by the wrong hands. For decades, foreign adversaries have used narrative tactics in efforts to manipulate public opinion in the United States. Social media platforms have brought new complexity and amplification to these campaigns. The phenomenon garnered ample public scrutiny after evidence emerged of Russian entities exerting influence over election-related material on Facebook in the lead-up to the 2016 election.

While artificial intelligence is exacerbating the problem, it is at the same time becoming one of the most powerful defenses against such manipulations. Researchers have been using machine learning techniques to analyze disinformation content.

At the Cognition, Narrative and Culture Lab at Florida International University, we are building AI tools to help detect disinformation campaigns that employ tools of narrative persuasion. We are training AI to go beyond surface-level language analysis to understand narrative structures, trace personas and timelines and decode cultural references.

Disinformation vs. misinformation

In July 2024, the Department of Justice disrupted a Kremlin-backed operation that used nearly a thousand fake social media accounts to spread false narratives. These weren’t isolated incidents. They were part of an organized campaign, powered in part by AI.

Disinformation differs crucially from misinformation. While misinformation is simply false or inaccurate information – getting facts wrong – disinformation is intentionally fabricated and shared specifically to mislead and manipulate. A recent illustration of this came in October 2024, when a video purporting to show a Pennsylvania election worker tearing up mail-in ballots marked for Donald Trump swept platforms such as X and Facebook.

Within days, the FBI traced the clip to a Russian influence outfit, but not before it racked up millions of views. This example vividly demonstrates how foreign influence campaigns artificially manufacture and amplify fabricated stories to manipulate U.S. politics and stoke divisions among Americans.

Humans are wired to process the world through stories. From childhood, we grow up hearing stories, telling them and using them to make sense of complex information. Narratives don’t just help people remember – they help us feel. They foster emotional connections and shape our interpretations of social and political events.

Stories have profound effects on human beliefs and behavior.

This makes them especially powerful tools for persuasion – and, consequently, for spreading disinformation. A compelling narrative can override skepticism and sway opinion more effectively than a flood of statistics. For example, a story about rescuing a sea turtle with a plastic straw in its nose often does more to raise concern about plastic pollution than volumes of environmental data.

Usernames, cultural context and narrative time

Using AI tools to piece together a picture of the narrator of a story, the timeline for how they tell it and cultural details specific to where the story takes place can help identify when a story doesn’t add up.

Narratives are not confined to the content users share – they also extend to the personas users construct to tell them. Even a social media handle can carry persuasive signals. We have developed a system that analyzes usernames to infer demographic and identity traits such as name, gender, location, sentiment and even personality, when such cues are embedded in the handle. This work, presented in 2024 at the International Conference on Web and Social Media, highlights how even a brief string of characters can signal how users want to be perceived by their audience.

For example, a user attempting to appear as a credible journalist might choose a handle like @JamesBurnsNYT rather than something more casual like @JimB_NYC. Both may suggest a male user from New York, but one carries the weight of institutional credibility. Disinformation campaigns often exploit these perceptions by crafting handles that mimic authentic voices or affiliations.

Although a handle alone cannot confirm whether an account is genuine, it plays an important role in assessing overall authenticity. By interpreting usernames as part of the broader narrative an account presents, AI systems can better evaluate whether an identity is manufactured to gain trust, blend into a target community or amplify persuasive content. This kind of semantic interpretation contributes to a more holistic approach to disinformation detection – one that considers not just what is said but who appears to be saying it and why.

Also, stories don’t always unfold chronologically. A social media thread might open with a shocking event, flash back to earlier moments and skip over key details in between.

Humans handle this effortlessly – we’re used to fragmented storytelling. But for AI, determining a sequence of events based on a narrative account remains a major challenge.

Our lab is also developing methods for timeline extraction, teaching AI to identify events, understand their sequence and map how they relate to one another, even when a story is told in nonlinear fashion.

Objects and symbols often carry different meanings in different cultures, and without cultural awareness, AI systems risk misinterpreting the narratives they analyze. Foreign adversaries can exploit cultural nuances to craft messages that resonate more deeply with specific audiences, enhancing the persuasive power of disinformation.

Consider the following sentence: “The woman in the white dress was filled with joy.” In a Western context, the phrase evokes a happy image. But in parts of Asia, where white symbolizes mourning or death, it could feel unsettling or even offensive.

In order to use AI to detect disinformation that weaponizes symbols, sentiments and storytelling within targeted communities, it’s critical to give AI this sort of cultural literacy. In our research, we’ve found that training AI on diverse cultural narratives improves its sensitivity to such distinctions.

Who benefits from narrative-aware AI?

Narrative-aware AI tools can help intelligence analysts quickly identify orchestrated influence campaigns or emotionally charged storylines that are spreading unusually fast. They might use AI tools to process large volumes of social media posts in order to map persuasive narrative arcs, identify near-identical storylines and flag coordinated timing of social media activity. Intelligence services could then use countermeasures in real time.

In addition, crisis-response agencies could swiftly identify harmful narratives, such as false emergency claims during natural disasters. Social media platforms could use these tools to efficiently route high-risk content for human review without unnecessary censorship. Researchers and educators could also benefit by tracking how a story evolves across communities, making narrative analysis more rigorous and shareable.

Ordinary users can also benefit from these technologies. The AI tools could flag social media posts in real time as possible disinformation, allowing readers to be skeptical of suspect stories, thus counteracting falsehoods before they take root.

As AI takes on a greater role in monitoring and interpreting online content, its ability to understand storytelling beyond just traditional semantic analysis has become essential. To this end, we are building systems to uncover hidden patterns, decode cultural signals and trace narrative timelines to reveal how disinformation takes hold.

About the Author:

Mark Finlayson, Associate Professor of Computer Science, Florida International University and Azwad Anjum Islam, Ph.D. Student in Computing and Information Sciences, Florida International University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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