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Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index bets for 8th time in 11 weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (9,043 contracts) with the British Pound (5,276 contracts), the Australian Dollar (1,571 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (740 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-43,377 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,440 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-2,353 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,612 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-659 contracts), Bitcoin (-550 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-78 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index bets for 8th time in 11 weeks

Highlighting the data in the currency speculator positions is a weakening US Dollar trend while the other major currencies are seeing stronger weekly speculator positions and trends.

The US Dollar index has been in an overall bearish position for three consecutive weeks as the USD Index positions have fallen in 8 out of the last 11 weeks for a total decline of over -17,000 contracts in that time period. This has dropped the speculator positioning to the most bearish level since December 2024. The USD Index speculator strength score, a measure of the current spec level compared to its past 3-year range, is currently at just a 4.4% score and underscores how weak the currency has become in speculator sentiment.

Weak Start to 2025 for the U.S. Dollar

The USD Index exchange rate has had a very weak start to 2025 as it has fallen approximately 9% since the beginning of the year. The American currency Index currently sits at the important psychological level of 100.00 and how the currency navigates this level can determine where things go as the 100 level has acted as strong support or resistance many times in the past, including in 2023 and 2024. The USD Index has recently fallen below its 200-week moving average and has now been under this level for multiple weeks for the first time since 2021.

Euro, GBP, Yen and Peso bullish bets

The Euro, the British Pound Sterling, the Mexican Peso and the Japanese Yen currently all have bullish speculator contract standings against the US Dollar. The Japanese Yen bets have been on a tear in the past few months with speculator bets rising in 13 out of the past 16 weeks for a total gain of +206,270 contracts in that period. The Yen speculator positions, however, did dip a little bit this week and came down from the all-time record high of last week at just under +180,000 bullish contracts.

The Euro and the British pound sterling contracts have also been steadily building higher bullish positions over the past few months with current levels at +75,719 contracts and +29,235 contracts, respectively. The Mexican Peso positions have been trending up as well as it has risen for three consecutive weeks and now the Mexican Peso speculator position is at its highest level since July of 2024 at +68,555 contracts.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar contracts have all been in bearish positions but have been improving week to week from their lowest bearish levels in the first quarter of 2025.

Biggest Change of the Week: BRL

The outlier change this week was the Brazilian Real which saw speculator bets fall by over -43,000 contracts this week. This sharp decline was following four straight weeks of gains that had boosted the overall bullish position to the highest level on record last week. This week’s reduction basically cut the Brazilian real speculator position in third and it now sits currently around +25,000 net contracts. The Brazilian Real’s exchange rate against the Dollar this week rose slightly and gained for a fourth consecutive week. Overall, the Real is about ten percent higher vs the USD since the start of the year.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (99 percent) and the Brazilian Real (65 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (64 percent), EuroFX (58 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and Bitcoin (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.8 percent)
EuroFX (57.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (99.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (100.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (53.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (39.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (59.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (100.0 percent)
Bitcoin (12.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (24.4 percent)

Swiss Franc & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (28 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (21 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Bitcoin (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-12 percent) and the British Pound (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-17.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.8 percent)
EuroFX (3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (15.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (28.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (31.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-64.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-67.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.0	27.3	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.1	20.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-1,108	2,486	-1,378
– Gross Longs:	21,251	9,682	2,559
– Gross Shorts:	22,359	7,196	3,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	99.0	11.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	20.6	-25.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 75,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	55.0	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	72.8	5.6
– Net Position:	75,719	-131,339	55,620
– Gross Longs:	194,192	405,535	97,040
– Gross Shorts:	118,473	536,874	41,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	36.5	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-10.6	46.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.1	28.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	46.2	13.1
– Net Position:	29,235	-34,736	5,501
– Gross Longs:	94,384	57,797	31,693
– Gross Shorts:	65,149	92,533	26,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	47.6	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	6.3	-1.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 176,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	28.2	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	81.6	5.5
– Net Position:	176,859	-200,612	23,753
– Gross Longs:	204,008	105,878	44,435
– Gross Shorts:	27,149	306,490	20,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	0.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-16.4	30.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	74.1	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	39.4	19.1
– Net Position:	-23,574	24,432	-858
– Gross Longs:	5,558	52,272	12,634
– Gross Shorts:	29,132	27,840	13,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	39.3	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.4	-35.3	32.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	52.2	11.7
– Net Position:	-70,645	76,469	-5,824
– Gross Longs:	16,677	209,571	24,048
– Gross Shorts:	87,322	133,102	29,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	46.0	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.4	-27.0	13.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -48,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	66.4	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	39.2	13.2
– Net Position:	-48,372	49,713	-1,341
– Gross Longs:	26,243	121,539	22,896
– Gross Shorts:	74,615	71,826	24,237
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	59.6	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-19.4	9.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	74.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	36.8	7.0
– Net Position:	-23,135	22,830	305
– Gross Longs:	10,188	45,115	4,533
– Gross Shorts:	33,323	22,285	4,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	59.8	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-22.5	20.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.9	27.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	81.8	2.9
– Net Position:	68,555	-69,687	1,132
– Gross Longs:	86,615	34,566	4,872
– Gross Shorts:	18,060	104,253	3,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	38.4	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-5.6	8.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -43,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.5	26.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	58.1	1.1
– Net Position:	24,961	-27,927	2,966
– Gross Longs:	61,099	23,965	3,952
– Gross Shorts:	36,138	51,892	986
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	34.2	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	11.7	4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.0	7.1	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.4	1.6	4.0
– Net Position:	-1,781	1,541	240
– Gross Longs:	22,936	1,982	1,360
– Gross Shorts:	24,717	441	1,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	100.0	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.6	65.9	16.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

11 May

Speculator Extremes: Brent, VIX, 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 15.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,495 net contracts this week with a gain of 17,584 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is also now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an increase by 17.0 this week. The speculator position registered 10,943 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 6,703 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The JPY speculator level resides at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase of 14.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 176,859 net contracts this week with a dip by -2,353 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with an advance by 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 37.0 this week.

The speculator position was 32,847 net contracts this week with a change of 1,984 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,296,496 net contracts this week with a reduction by -3,952 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score is -30.0 this week. The speculator position was -31,610 net contracts this week with a decline of -11,576 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The USD Index speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score is -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,108 net contracts this week with a decrease of -659 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.0 this week. The speculator position was -107,537 net contracts this week with a gain of 9,271 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -65.0 this week. The speculator position was -1,781 net contracts this week with a dip lower by -550 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

09 May

Week Ahead: Dollar ready to flex its muscles?

By ForexTime

FXTM’s USDInd ↑ 2.5% from 2025 low
US-China trade talks over weekend could rock USD
US CPI + data dump + Powell Speech = more USD volatility?
US CPI sparked moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 1.0% over past year
Technical levels: 102.20, 100.00 & 99.20

The United States has struck a “breakthrough” deal with the United Kingdom, marking the first trade agreement since Trump announced sweeping tariffs last month.

And this has left markets buzzing with anticipation ahead of US-China trade talks in Geneva this weekend.

Beyond global trade developments, high-impact data, including the latest US CPI, corporate earnings and speeches by policymakers will be in focus:

Saturday, 10th May

CN50: China PPI, CPI
USDInd: US-China trade talks in Switzerland

Monday, 12th May

JP225: Japan current account
MXN: Mexico industrial production
EUR: EU finance ministers meet in Brussels

Tuesday, 13th May

CHINAH: JD.com earnings
AUD: Australia consumer, business confidence
GER40: Germany ZEW survey
ZAR: South Africa unemployment
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
USDInd: US April CPI, Trump visits Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates

Wednesday, 14th May

CHINAH: Tencent earnings
GER40: Germany CPI
JPY: Japan PPI
US500: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech

Thursday, 15th May

CHINAH: Alibaba earnings
AUD: Australia unemployment
CAD: Canada existing home sales, housing starts
EU50: Eurozone GDP, industrial production
NZD: New Zealand food prices
UK100: UK GDP, industrial production
US30: Walmart earnings.
USDInd: US retail sales, PPI, Empire manufacturing, industrial production, jobless claims, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Friday, 16th May

JP225: Japan GDP, industrial production
NZD: New Zealand Business, NZ manufacturing PMI
US500: US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, import prices

FXTM’s USDInd is under the spotlight after securing a solid daily close above the psychological 100.00 level.

The USDInd tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

The dollar has appreciated against most currencies this week thanks to Powell’s hawkish tone and easing trade tensions.

Another major move could be brewing for the USDInd and here are 4 reasons why:

1) US-China trade talks in Switzerland

Over the weekend, US and Chinese officials will engage in talks to de-escalate trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

According to reports, the Trump administration is considering a significant tariff reduction to temper economic pain and soothe tensions. However, China has adopted a more defensive approach toward trade talks, reiterating its call for the US to cancel unilateral tariffs.

Should the talks end on a positive note and open doors to further negotiations, the dollar could rally as US recession fears cool.
If the talks end on a sour note and result in fresh trade uncertainty, the dollar may weaken as US recession fears mount.

2) US April CPI report

The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Tuesday 13th May could influence Fed cut bets.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (April 2024 vs. April 2025) to remain unchanged at 2.4%
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 2.8%
CPI month-on-month (April 2025 vs March 2025) to rise 0.3% from -0.1% in the prior month
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in the prior month

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.4% or declines of 1.0% in a 6-hour window post-release.

A hotter-than-expected US CPI print could push the USDInd higher as Fed cut bets cool.
Should the inflation report print below forecast, this may drag the USDInd lower.

3) US data dump + Powell speech

A string of key US economic data and speeches by numerous Fed officials could inject the dollar with more volatility.

Investors will direct their attention towards the latest US retail sales report, Producer Prices Index (PPI), and industrial production among other data releases, to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches by various Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell may provide fresh clues on the Fed’s next move.

Should overall US economic data print above forecasts and Fed speakers strike a hawkish note, this could boost the USDInd.
Soft US economic data and dovish-sounding Fed officials may weigh on the USDInd.

4) Technical forces

The USDInd could be gearing up for further upside but this will depend on whether the 100.00 level proves to be reliable support. Prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA and respecting a bullish channel.

Should 100.00 prove reliable support, prices may venture toward the 50-day SMA at 102.20 and 103.60.
Weakness below 100.00 may encourage a decline back towards 99.20 and 98.00.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

07 May

Can Fed rate decision extend US stocks’ rebound?

By ForexTime

Fed widely expected to leave US rates unchanged
Markets fully anticipate next Fed rate cut in July; 1-in-3 chance of June cut
Hints of earlier-than-expected rate cut could send US stock indices soaring
Risk assets may pare recent gains if Chair Powell pushes back on rate cuts
See below for past and projected post-Fed reactions for US500, NAS100, US30

The Fed is set to dominate the market’s attention overnight.

To be clear, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is widely expected to keep its benchmark rates unchanged at 4.25 – 4.50%.

Given its forward-looking nature, markets are already trying to anticipate the outcomes of FOMC meetings in the months ahead.

Here’s what markets currently predict:

June: 1-in-3 chance (33.7%)
July: 25-basis point rate cut fully priced in!

Of course, those odds could drastically change in the days, weeks, and months ahead, not just depending on what the Fed tells us this week.

The chances of a Fed rate cut may also depend heavily on whether US President Donald Trump’s tariffs further weaken US economic growth, forcing the Fed into a sooner-than-expected rate cut.

NOTE: The FOMC lowers interest rates in order to shore up economic growth.

What to look out for today (Wednesday, May 7th)?

Markets will be combing through the:

FOMC policy statement released at 6:00PM GMT on Wednesday, May 7th, along with …
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference (due 30 minutes after the FOMC statement).

Both the FOMC statement and Powell’s spoken words will be scrutinized for clues about the timing of the next Fed rate cut.

Judging by recent commentary, Fed officials appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, in assessing the tariffs’ impact on inflation and growth in the world’s largest economy.

After all, recent weeks have shown that tariffs can be announced, and then retracted, seemingly at POTUS’s whims and fancy.

The ongoing narrative is that …

If US tariffs are kept at elevated levels for longer, the greater the potential damage on the US economy.

And given that this week’s FOMC meeting also comes amid the 90-day pause on some of the harshest tariffs, the Fed may be inclined to maintain this wait-and-see approach, without jolting markets in the interim.

Also note that, at this week’s meeting, the Fed will not be releasing a new dot plot (forecasts by each FOMC member on US interest rate levels in the future), nor fresh economic projections.

Hence, any incoming policy signals, if any, are set to stem from the FOMC policy statement and Powell’s press conference.

How might US stock indices react to today’s Fed meeting?

BULLISH: Should Chair Powell and his FOMC colleagues sound “dovish” and start paving the way for rate cuts, that should cheer on risk assets that sends US stock indices higher.
BEARISH: If Chair Powell and his FOMC colleagues instead strike a “hawkish” tone, suggesting that US interest rates could stay higher for longer to quell any tariff-induced spikes to US inflation, that could force US stock indices to pare its stunning rebound since early April.

Here’s what markets predict these major US stock indices could react in the 6 hours after today’s FOMC decision:

S&P 500 (tracked by FXTM’s US500) could:

rise by as much as 1.4%
fall by as much as 1.6

Nasdaq 100 (tracked by FXTM’s NAS100) could:

rise/fall by as much as 1.9%

Dow Jones Industrial Average (tracked by FXTM’s US30) could:

rise as much as 1.1%
fall by as much as 1.7%

How have US stock indices reacted to recent Fed meetings?

These Fed rate decisions of course hold tremendous sway over markets.

Here’s a sample of the “biggest” reactions by major US stock indices within 6 hours of Fed decisions from the past 12 months:

S&P 500 (US500)

rose as much as 1.7% (Sept 2024)
fell as much as 3% (Dec 2024)

Nasdaq 100 (NAS100)

rose as much as 2.35% (Sept 2024)
fell as much as 3.5% (Dec 2024)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)

rose as much as 1.2% (Sept 2024)
fell as much as 2.7% (Dec 2024)

Over the next 12 months …

Wall Street still predicts double-digit potential gains for US stock indices by this time next year.

Here are the projections for 12-month potential upside for 3 major US stock indices:

S&P 500 (tracked by FXTM’s US500 index): 16%
(S&P 500 to cross above 6500 by this time next year)
Nasdaq 100 (tracked by FXTM’s NAS100 index): 18%
(Nasdaq 100 to cross above 23,300 by this time next year)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (tracked by FXTM’s US30 index): 14%
(Dow to cross above 46,700 by this time next year)

Looking at the price charts …

Widely-followed simple moving averages (SMA) stand in the way of bulls (those hoping prices will go higher) of these stock indexes, and could act as immediate resistance levels post-FOMC meeting:

200-day SMA potential immediate resistance for the US500

US500: Potential Scenarios

BULLISH: Greater prospects of a mid-year Fed rate cut could send the US500 towards its 200-day SMA / 5700 psychological level. Further north lies its 100-day SMA and 5800 target.

BEARISH: A break below its 50-day SMA could test initial support at the 5,500 round number, with its 21-day SMA and 5400 price region potentially offering stronger support.

200-day SMA potential immediate resistance for the NAS100
Imagen

NAS100: Potential Scenarios

BULLISH: A break above the 200-day SMA could see the NAS100 striving for its upside target of 20,800.

BEARISH: The NAS100 may look to find support at its 50-day SMA around the 19,400 region. Further support could arrive around the 21-day SMA.

50-day SMA immediate resistance for the US30

US30: Potential Scenarios

BULLISH: A break above the 50-day SMA could see the US30 striving for its immediate upside target of 41,800. Further north, the price region around its 200-day SMA / 42,500 level / 100-day SMA could lend stronger resistance to bulls.

BEARISH: A second consecutive daily close below the 41k mark for the US30 could see prices faltering to the big, round 40,000 number, where its 21-day SMA also currently lies.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

02 May

Week Ahead: Crude caught in crosswinds ahead of OPEC+ showdown

By ForexTime

Crude ends April ↓ 18.6%
OPEC+ expected to sign off another supply hike
Positive US-China trade may support oil bulls
Fed decision sparked moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 0.9% over past year
Technical levels: $65, $60 & $55

As the countdown draws closer to the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday, 2nd May), markets are bracing for more volatility in the week ahead.

An influx of high-impact data, risk events and key central bank decisions could present fresh trading opportunities:

Saturday, 3rd May

AUD: Australia general election

Sunday, 4th May

Asian Development Bank annual meeting

Monday, 5th May

UK markets closed for Bank holiday
OIL: OPEC+ meeting on production levels
USDInd: US ISM services

Tuesday, 6th May

AUD: Australia building approvals
CN50: China Caixin services PMI
EUR: Eurozone HCOB services PMI, PPI
US500: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testimony

Wednesday, 7th May

CNY: China forex reserves
EUR: Eurozone retail sales
GER40: Germany factory orders
TWN: Taiwan CPI
US500: US Fed rate decision

Thursday, 8th May

GER40: Germany industrial production
ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production
UK100: BOE rate decision
SEK: Sweden rate decision
RUS200: US jobless claims

Friday, 9th May

CN50: China trade
JP225: Japan household spending, cash earnings
CAD: Canada employment
USDInd: Fed governors Lisa Cook, Christopher Waller, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech

Our focus lands on oil benchmarks which have shed over 17% year-to-date amid global recession fears and oversupply worries.

Crude prices have recently rebounded on easing trade tensions and new sanctions on Iran. However, the global commodity is still headed for a weekly loss of more than 6%.

And things could spice up further in the week ahead. Here are 4 reasons why:

1) OPEC+ meeting on production levels

On Monday 5th May, OPEC+ will meet to decide the supply policy for June.

Earlier in April, Saudi Arabia shocked markets by pushing OPEC+ for faster output increases in May after Kazakhstan and Iraq produced well above quotas.

Markets expect the cartel to sign off on another supply surge to punish over-producing members.

But most importantly, infighting within the cartel and overproduction could be a recipe for disaster for oil, especially if it leads to a “free-for-all” where members pump at will.

Oil prices may tumble if OPEC+ pushes for faster production hikes with any signs of internal instability fuelling downside pressures.
Should OPEC+ surprise by slowing down or pausing output hikes, this could boost oil prices as oversupply fears cool.

2) US-China trade talks

Market sentiment has received a boost after China said it’s evaluating trade talks with the United States. This comes after weeks of conflicting reports and uncertainty around US-China trade talks.

If this soothes tensions and opens the doors to concrete negotiations, this could cool concerns about a global recession.

More positive progress with US-China trade talks may support oil prices as investors become more hopeful about the demand outlook.
Should the talks lead to more uncertainty or result in renewed tensions, oil prices may take a hit.

3) Fed rate decision

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its May meeting, but all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.

Friday’s incoming US jobs report along with developments on the trade front, may influence what tone Powell strikes on Wednesday 7th May.

Traders are currently pricing in 3 rate cuts in 2025 with the probability of a 4th one by December at 67%. Any major shifts to these expectations may influence oil prices.

Lower interest rates could stimulate economic growth, which fuels oil demand.
Lower interest rates may also lead to a weaker dollar, boosting oil which is priced in dollars.

The same can be said vice versa.

If Powell strikes a hawkish note and the dollar appreciates, oil prices may slip.
If Powell sounds more dovish and signals faster rate cuts, oil prices may jump.

Over the past 12 months, the Fed rate decision has triggered upside moves on CRUDE of as much as 0.4% or declines of 0.9% in a 6-hour window post-release.

4) Technical forces

Crude is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 30, signalling that prices are oversold.

A solid breakout and daily close above $60 may pave a path toward the 50-day SMA near $65.00 and potentially the 100-day SMA $68.80 in the medium to longer term.
Should $60 prove to be a tough resistance, prices may slip back towards $55 and levels not seen since January 2021 at $51.50.

Note: This chart was created before the release of the US NFP report on Friday 2nd May.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Opinions

02 May

Whether GDP swings up or down, there are limits to what it says about the economy and your place in it

By Sophie Mitra, Fordham University

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest U.S. gross domestic product data on April 30. In the first three months of 2025, it said, GDP contracted by 0.3%. The GDP growth rate captures the pace at which the total value of goods and services grows or shrinks. Together with unemployment and inflation, it usually receives a lot of attention as an indicator of economic performance.

Some economists and analysts said the economy might not be as bad as this rate’s decline might suggest. While this is the first time in three years that GDP has shrunk instead of growing, it is a relatively small decline.

This raises a critical question: Does a relatively small GDP contraction mean the economy is in trouble? I have spent much of my working life studying economic well-being at the level of individuals or families.

What I’ve learned can offer a different lens on the economy than you’d get from just focusing on the most popular indicators, such as the GDP growth rate.

GDP problems

The GDP growth rate has many limitations as an economic indicator. It captures only a very narrow slice of economic activity: goods and services. It pays no attention to what is produced, how it is produced or how people assess their economic lives.

GDP gets a lot of attention, in part, because of the misconception that economics only has to do with market transactions, money and wealth. But economics is also about people and their livelihoods.

Many economists would agree that economics treats wealth or the production of goods and services as means to improve human lives.

Since the 1990s, a number of international commissions and research projects have come up with ways to go beyond GDP. In 2008, the French government asked two Nobel Prize winners, Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen, as well as the late economist Jean-Paul Fitoussi, to put together an international commission of experts to come up with new ways to measure economic performance and progress. In their 2010 report, they argued that there is a need to “shift emphasis from measuring economic production to measuring people’s well-being.”

Considering complementary metrics

One approach is to use a composite index that combines data on a variety of aspects of a country’s well-being into a single statistic. That one number could unfold into a detailed picture of the situation of a country if you zoom into each underlying indicator, by demographic group or region.

The production of such composite indices has flourished. For example, the Human Development Index of the United Nations, started in 1990, covers income per capita, life expectancy at birth and education. This index shows how focusing on GDP alone can mislead the public about a country’s economic performance.

In 2024, the U.S. ranked fifth in the world in terms of GDP per capita, but was in 20th place on the Human Development Index due to relatively lower life expectancy and years of schooling compared to other countries at the top of the list, like Switzerland and Norway.

Monitoring other indicators

Another approach is to rely on a larger number of indicators that are frequently updated. These other data points reflect a variety of perspectives about the economy, including subjective ones that convey personal perceptions and experiences.

For instance, in addition to inflation rates, there is data on stress due to inflation as well as inflation expectations. Both offer insights into people’s perceptions, perspectives and experiences about inflation.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the annual U.S. inflation rate increased from 1% in July 2020 to 8.5% in July 2022. My research partners and I found, using U.S. Census data, that more than 3 in 4 adults in the U.S. were experiencing moderate or high levels of stress due to inflation at that time and continued to do so even after inflation went down in 2023.

More recently, the Trump administration’s sporadic tariff changes have made future prices more uncertain, which exposes people to risks. That, in turn, makes people adjust their expectations and feel worse off.

The share of consumers expecting higher inflation rates has climbed sharply in 2025, while consumer confidence has declined abruptly. About 1 in 3 consumers expect that there will be fewer jobs created in the next six months, which is almost as low as during the Great Recession of 2007-2009.

Consumers also have negative expectations about their own future income and worry about their own economic status.

At this moment, the U.S. economy has not officially entered a recession – which requires a longer period of GDP contraction than just one quarter. Although unemployment and inflation rates remain relatively low, the broad picture of the economy that takes into account people’s expectations and perceptions is troubling. To be clear, I’m not saying that just because of what the GDP data may indicate.

This article includes material from an article originally published on Aug. 7, 2018.

About the Author:

Sophie Mitra, Professor of Economics, Fordham University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

29 Apr

GBP/USD Hits New High: The Pound Defies Market Pressures

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The British pound has reached another three-year peak against the US dollar, stabilising around 1.3400.

Key factors driving GBP/USD strength

Sterling is closing April with its strongest monthly performance since November 2023, gaining over 3% against the US dollar.

Two key factors support the pound’s resilience:

Monetary policy divergence – Markets expect the Bank of England (BoE) to slow the pace of interest rate cuts compared to other central banks. Current projections suggest the BoE will reduce rates by 85 basis points in 2025, roughly in line with expectations for the US Federal Reserve.
Dollar alternatives in demand – Investors seek alternatives to the US dollar, and the UK appears less vulnerable to US tariff risks. A 90-day moratorium on increased US tariffs expires in late July, renewing global economic uncertainties.

Against this backdrop, the UK and its currency appear more stable than many peers.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 chart

GBP/USD continues to consolidate around 1.3344, with the range now extending to 1.3440.
A downside retest of 1.3344 is expected, followed by potential upward momentum towards 1.3455, defining the range boundaries.
A break below consolidation could trigger a downward wave targeting 1.3080 as the initial objective.
The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero but poised for a decline.

H1 chart

The pair has broken above 1.3344, achieving a local target at 1.3440
A corrective decline towards 1.3344 is anticipated before potential renewed growth towards 1.3455
The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, with its signal line below 20 and primed for an upward move towards 80

Conclusion

The pound remains defensive yet strong, buoyed by relative monetary policy stability and its appeal as a dollar alternative. Technically, the pair is testing key levels, with further direction contingent on consolidation breaks.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Apr

Why predicting battery performance is like forecasting traffic − and how researchers are making progress

By Emmanuel Olugbade, Missouri University of Science and Technology

Lithium-ion batteries are quietly powering large parts of the world, including electric vehicles and smartphones. They have revolutionized how people store and use energy. But as these batteries become more central to daily life, they bring more attention to the challenges of managing them and the energy they store safely, efficiently and intelligently.

I’m a mechanical engineer who studies these nearly ubiquitous batteries. They have been around for decades, yet researchers like me are still trying to fully understand how these batteries behave – especially when they are working hard.

Batteries may seem simple, but they are as complicated as the real-world uses people devise for them.

The big picture

At their core, lithium-ion batteries rely on the movement of charged particles, called ions, of the element lithium between two electric poles, or electrodes. The lithium ions move from the positive electrode to the negative one through a conductive substance called an electrolyte, which can be a solid or a liquid.

The basics of how a lithium-ion battery works.

How much energy these batteries store and how well they work depends on a tangle of factors, including the temperature, physical structure of the battery and how the materials age over time.

Around the world, researchers are trying to answer questions about each of these factors individually and in concert with each other. Some research focuses on improving lifespan and calculating how batteries degrade over time. Other projects are tackling safety under extreme conditions, such as fast-charging use in extreme climates – either hot or cold. Many are exploring entirely new materials that could make batteries cheaper, longer-lasting or safer. And a significant group – including me – are working with computer simulations to improve real-time battery monitoring.

Real‑time monitoring in your electric vehicle’s battery system functions like a health check: It tracks voltage, current and temperature to estimate how much energy remains so you won’t be stranded with a dead battery.

But it’s difficult to precisely measure how well each of the energy cells within the battery is performing as they age or as the weather changes from cold in winter to hotter in summer. So the battery management system uses a computer simulation to estimate those factors. When combined with real-time monitoring, the system can prevent overusing the battery, balance charging speed with long-term health, avoid power failures and keep performance high. But there are a lot of variables.

The traffic analogy

One of the best ways to understand this challenge is to think about city traffic.

Let’s say you want to drive across town and need to determine whether your car has enough charge to travel the best route. If your navigation simulator accounted for every stoplight, every construction zone and every vehicle on the road, it would give you a very accurate answer. But it might take an hour to run, by which time the circumstances would have changed and the answer would likely be wrong. That’s not helpful if you’re trying to make a decision right now.

A simpler model might assume that every road is clear and every car is moving at the speed limit. That simulation delivers a result instantly – but its results are very inaccurate when traffic is heavy or a road is closed. It doesn’t capture the reality of rush hour.

While you’re driving, the battery management system would do a similar set of calculations to see how much charge is available for the rest of the trip. It would look at the battery’s temperature, how old it is and how much energy the car is asking for, like when going up a steep hill or accelerating quickly to keep up with other cars. But like the navigation simulations, it has to strike a balance between being extremely accurate and giving you useful information before your battery runs out in the middle of your trip.

The most accurate models, which simulate every chemical reaction inside the battery, are too slow for real-time use. The faster models simplify things so much that they miss key behaviors – especially under stress, such as fast charging or sudden bursts of energy use.

How researchers are bridging the gap

This trade-off between speed and accuracy is at the heart of battery modeling research today. Scientists and engineers are exploring many ways to solve it.

Some are rewriting modeling software to make the physics calculations more efficient, reducing complexity without losing the key details. Others, like me, are turning to machine learning – training computers to recognize patterns in data and make fast, accurate predictions without having to solve every underlying equation.

In my recent work, I used a high-accuracy battery simulator – one of the ones that’s really accurate but very slow – to generate a massive amount of data about how a battery functions when charging and discharging. I used that data to train a machine learning algorithm called XGBoost, which is particularly good at finding patterns in data.

Then I used software to pair the XGBoost system with a simple, fast-running battery model that captures the basic physics but can miss finer details. The simpler model puts out an initial set of results, and the XGBoost element fine-tunes those to make corrections on the fly, especially when the battery is under strain.

The result is a hybrid model that is able to respond both quickly and accurately to changes in driving conditions. A driver who floors the accelerator with just the simple model wouldn’t get enough energy; a more detailed model would give the right amount of energy only after it finished all its calculations. My hybrid model delivers a rapid boost of energy without delays.

Other teams are working on similar hybrid approaches, blending physics and artificial intelligence in creative ways. Some are even building digital twins – real-time virtual replicas of physical batteries – to offer sophisticated simulations that update constantly as conditions change.

What’s next

Battery research is moving quickly, and the field is already seeing signs of change. Models are becoming more reliable across a wider range of conditions. Engineers are using real-time monitoring to extend battery life, prevent overheating and improve energy efficiency. Machine learning lets researchers train battery management systems to optimize performance for specific applications, such as high power demands in electric vehicles, daily cycles of home electricity use, short power bursts for drones, or long-duration requirements for building-scale battery systems.

And there’s more to come: Researchers are working to include other important factors into their battery models, such as heat generation and mechanical stress.

Some teams are taking hybrid models and compiling their software into lightweight code that runs on microcontrollers inside battery hardware. In practice, that means each battery pack carries its own brain on-board, calculating state-of-charge, estimating aging and tracking thermal or mechanical stress in near-real time. By embedding the model in the device’s electronics, the pack can autonomously adjust its charging and discharging strategy on the fly, making every battery smarter, safer and more efficient.

As the energy landscape evolves – with more electric vehicles on the road, more renewable energy sources feeding into the grid, and more people relying on batteries in daily life – the ability to understand what a battery is doing in real time becomes more critical than ever.

About the Author:

Emmanuel Olugbade, Ph.D. Candidate in Mechanical Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

25 Apr

Tourists are cancelling trips to the US – here’s how this could affect its economy

By Ross Bennett-Cook, Leeds Beckett University

The United States is one of the top three most visited countries in the world. The big draw cards – cities such as San Francisco, New York and Chicago and national parks such as Yosemite – have attracted international tourists for decades. This combined with its role as a global business powerhouse meant it had 66.5 million visitors in 2023 – and the 2024 figure is expected to be higher still.

But a lot has changed in recent months, and 2025’s figures may not be as strong. The 2024 reelection of Donald Trump as the president of the United States and the consequential changes in foreign diplomacy and relations, alongside internal cultural shifts, are starting to change global attitudes towards the US – attitudes that appear to be affecting tourists’ desire to visit the US.

In a recent report by research firm Tourism Economics, inbound travel to the US is now projected to decline by 5.5% this year, instead of growing by nearly 9% as had previously been forecast. A further escalation in tariff and trade wars could result in further reductions in international tourism, which could amount to a US$18 billion (£13.8 billion) annual reduction in tourist spending in 2025.

There is already some evidence of travel cancellations. Since Trump announced 25% tariffs on many Canadian goods, the number of Canadians driving across the border at some crossings has fallen by up to 45%, on some days, when compared to last year. Canada is the biggest source of international tourists to the US. Air Canada has announced it is reducing flights to some US holiday destinations, including Las Vegas, from March, as demand reduces.

According to a March poll by Canadian market researcher Leger, 36% of Canadians who had planned trips to the United States had already cancelled them. According to data from the aviation analytics company OAG, passenger bookings on Canada to US routes are down by over 70% compared to the same period last year. This comes after the U.S. Travel Association warned that even a 10% reduction in Canadian inbound travel could result in a US$2.1 billion (£1.6 billion) loss in spending, putting 140,000 hospitality jobs at risk.

An unwelcoming environment?

Some would-be visitors have cited an unwelcoming political climate as part of a concern about visiting the US – including angry rhetoric about foreigners, migrants and the LGBTQ+ community. The Tourism Economics report also cited “polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric” as a factor in travel cancellations.

There are other factors that may influence travellers from, for instance, western Europe, which represented 37% of overseas travel to the US last year. These include US tariffs pushing prices up at home and the US administration’s perceived alignment with Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Canadian trips to the US are going down.

Research by YouGov in March found that western European attitudes towards the US have become more negative since Trump’s reelection last November. More than half of people in Britain (53%), Germany (56%), Sweden (63%) and Denmark (74%) now have an unfavourable opinion of the US. In five of the seven countries polled, figures for US favourability are at the lowest since polling began in November 2016.

Border issues

Some high-profile cases at the US border could also be putting off tourists. In March, a British woman was handcuffed and detained for more than ten days by US Customs Enforcement after a visa problem. In the same month, a Canadian tourist was detained after attempting to renew her visa at the US-Mexico border. During the 12-day detention, she was held in crowded jail cells and even put in chains.

Mexico is the US’s second largest inbound travel market. Tourism Economics suggests that issues around new border enforcement rules will raise concerns with potential Mexican tourists. During Trump’s first term in office, Mexican visits to the US fell by 3%. In February this year, air travel from Mexico had already fallen 6% when compared to 2024.

Many countries including Canada have been updating their travel advice for the US. For instance, on March 15 the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office updated its advice for the US, warning visitors that “you may be liable to arrest or detention if you break the rules”. The previous version of advice, from February, had no mention of arrest or detention. Germany has made similar updates to its travel advisory, after several Germans were recently detained for weeks by US border officials.

Multiple European countries, including France, Germany, Denmark and Norway have also issued specific travel warnings to transgender and non-binary citizens, as US authorities demand tourists declare their biological sex at birth on visa applications. This comes as the US has stopped issuing of passports with a X marker – commonly used by those identifying as non-binary – for its own citizens.

Alternative destinations

As thousands of travellers cancel their trips to the US, other destinations are seeing a spike in interest. Hotels in Bermuda have reported a surge in enquiries as Canadians relocate business and leisure trips away from the US, with some predicting a 20% increase in revenue from Canadian visits.

Europe too has reported increased bookings from Canada, with rental properties experiencing a 32% jump in summer reservations when compared to last year, according to some reports.

There are already growing concerns that visa and entry restrictions will disrupt fans and athletes from enjoying 2026 men’s Fifa World Cup, held on sites in the US, Canada and Mexico. Visitors from some countries, such as Brazil, Turkey and Colombia, could wait up to 700 days to obtain visas. The International Olympic Committee has also raised concerns over the 2028 Olympics Games in Los Angeles, although US officials have insisted that “America will be open”.

With mounting visa delays, stricter border enforcement and growing concerns over human rights and anti-minority rhetoric, the United States risks losing its appeal as a top holiday destination. The long-term impact on its tourism industry may prove difficult to reverse.

About the Author:

Ross Bennett-Cook, PhD Researcher, Carnegie School of Sport, Leeds Beckett University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

24 Apr

IMF World Economic Outlook: economic uncertainty is now higher than it ever was during COVID

By Sergi Basco, Universitat de Barcelona

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just published its World Economic Outlook, and it does not take an expert to deduce that, even among some of the world’s top economic minds, confident predictions are currently hard to come by.

Every spring the IMF and World Bank hold their Spring Meetings in Washington DC: a week of seminars, briefings and press conferences focusing on the global economy, international development and world financial markets. At both the Spring Meetings and the Annual Meeting, held each autumn, the IMF publishes its global economic growth forecasts.

For its 2025 Spring Meeting the IMF has published a baseline forecast, as well as an addendum analysing the tariff events that took place between 9 and 14 April. According to the Fund’s report, world GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. For the euro area, growth will be 0.8% and 1.2% for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

These forecasts represent a substantial downward revision from IMF figures published just three months ago. Globally, growth in 2025 is down by 0.5% compared to the Fund’s January update, with a reduction of 0.2% for the euro area.

One major shift is key to understanding the most recent IMF report and its pessimistic predictions: we live in a much more uncertain world than we did three months ago.

Trump, tariffs and uncertainty

If one had to sum up the new US tariff policy in a word, “unpredictable” would suffice, as the so-called “Liberation Day” of 2 April 2025 represented the largest tariff increase in modern history.

Just one week later, the US president then made two further announcements. First, a 90-day freeze on tariff hikes, apparently in search of bilateral agreements with the countries to which he had applied tariffs above 10%. Second, that China would be excluded from this exception, with tariffs on its products being raised to 145%.

This freeze means that until July EU goods being sold to the US will have a 10% tariff instead of the 20% that was announced on 2 April. However, the 10% applied by the new US administration is still much higher than the average tariff of 1.34% that was in force before 5 April.

But what will the tariff be after these 90 days? What about in December? What about in 2 years’ time? What goods will be exempted? How far will the trade war between China and the US go? The answer to all of these questions is: nobody knows. This uncertainty is evident in of the IMF’s spring forecast.

Uncertainty is off the charts

The IMF’s world trade uncertainty index is currently 7 times higher than it was in October 2024, much higher than in the pandemic.

As far as the economy is concerned, this uncertainty is far worse than a high but definitive tariff. With a tariff, companies can at least reorganise their production chain, and consumers can look for alternative products. There is a cost, but at least businesses and consumers can plan for it.

However, nobody can calculate these costs today because nobody knows how tariffs will evolve. An American company may decide today to buy a particular product from the EU thinking that the tariff will be 10%, but upon the product’s arrival in the US it turns out the tariff has risen to 100% because a presidential advisor said it would be good for the US economy to raise tariffs on that product.

Unbelievable though it may sound, this appears to be how the tariffs are being decided and enacted. According to one account, the US Treasury and Commerce Secretaries were only able to persuade Trump to freeze recent tariff hikes because Peter Navarro – the president’s economic advisor and tariff ideologue – was in another room at the time.

The end result of this unpredictability is that the best course of action, for consumers and businesses alike, is inaction.

Fear and volatility

It is no surprise that these constant changes of plans are causing great instability in financial markets. Although Trump may have triumphantly celebrated rising stock prices immediately after the tariff freeze was announced, financial markets are now subject to levels of uncertainty and fear similar to those seen during COVID-19.

Five years ago, volatility was associated with increased demand for US government debt due to the “flight to safety” effect: investors selling higher risk investments and buying safer assets, such as gold and government bonds, in times of uncertainty.

Now we are seeing the exact opposite. The price of US bonds has fallen since “Liberation Day”, and this means that investors are selling them. In other words, markets no longer believe that US government debt is a safe asset. Given the role of the dollar and US debt in international markets, this paradigm shift may generate even more financial instability down the line.

Supply chains are breaking (again)

COVID-19, the last major global economic crisis, has one thing in common with the current situation: disruption of global supply chains. During the pandemic it was confinement that forced production to stop. Today, it is the imposition of tariffs.

However, there is another major difference. During COVID people knew it was a matter of time before vaccines became available and normality returned. Today, instability in financial markets comes not from any virus, but from President Trump’s own advisors selling him all manner of plans to protect US economic interests.

About the Author:

Sergi Basco, Profesor Agregado de Economia, Universitat de Barcelona

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

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