Archive for Opinions – Page 26

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Lean Hogs & Silver lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Extreme Bullish Speculator Table


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

Extreme Bullish Leader
The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 99.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 6 points this week. The speculator position registered 7,260 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 5,223 contracts in speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Lean Hogs

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 99 percent score or just below its maximum of the 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 36 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 94,956 net contracts this week although saw a dip by -1,312 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Silver

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Silver speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19 points this week. The overall speculator position was 62,947 net contracts this week with a reduction by -4,227 contracts in the speculator bets.


Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position registers number four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 19 points this week.

The speculator position was -209,526 net contracts this week with a drop by -19,812 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Japanese Yen


The Japanese yen speculator position rounds out the top five in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese yen speculator level is at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -11 points this week. The overall speculator position was 132,277 net contracts this week with an increase by 1,400 contracts in the speculator bets.


Extreme Bearish Speculator Table


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Sugar speculator position also comes in tied at the top of the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -23 points this week. The overall speculator position was -47,220 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -79 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybean Meal

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -76,064 net contracts this week with a decrease by -16,876 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


5-Year Bond

Extreme Bearish Leader
The 5-Year Bond speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,463,629 net contracts this week with a decline of -20,348 contracts in the speculator bets.


US Dollar Index

Extreme Bearish Leader
The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in also tied atop as the most bearish extreme standings. The USD Index speculator level is rounded to a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -12 points this week. The speculator position was -6,034 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,066 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Extreme Bearish Leader
Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -13 points this week. The speculator position was -367,108 net contracts this week with a dip by -19,423 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Week Ahead: EURUSD set to rally towards key 1.20 level?

By ForexTime 

  • EURUSD ↑ 3% MTD, trading near 4-year highs
  • ECB forum in Sintra + key EU/US data = fresh volatility?  
  • EURUSD forecasted to move ↑ 0.3% or ↓ 0.7% post NFP
  • Bloomberg FX model: EURUSD has 75% of trading within 1.1557 – 1.1880 over 1-week period
  • Technical level: 1.1700

The world’s most-traded FX pair is on a tear, hitting levels not seen since September 2021!

At the time of writing, EURUSD has gained over 3% this month with prices knocking on key resistance at 1.17.

 

Why is the EURUSD rallying?

 

A broadly weaker dollar:

  • The greenback has been hit by growing bets on a more dovish-leaning Fed amid reports that Trump will announce Powell’s replacement sooner than expected.

 

  • Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also reduced appetite for safe-haven assets, enforcing more pressure on the dollar.

We have seen the dollar not only weaken against the euro but against every single G10 currency month-to-date. 

Imagen
usdJDD

 

With the dollar under pressure, could this mean more upside for the EURUSD ahead of another event-heavy week?

Monday, 30th June 

  • CN50: China PMI’s
  • GER40: Germany CPI
  • JP225: Japan industrial production
  • UK100: UK GDP
  • US500: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
  • ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra

Tuesday, 1st July 

  • CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Germany Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI, ECB President Lagarde speech
  • JPY: Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, BOJ Governor Ueda speech
  • GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, BOE Governor Bailey speech
  • USDInd: US ISM Manufacturing, S&P Global PMI, Fed Chair Powell speech

Wednesday, 2nd July

  • AUD: Australia retail sales, building approvals
  • CAD: Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone unemployment
  • US400: US ADP employment
  • Tesla: Second-quarter vehicle sales figures

Thursday, 3rd July 

  • AUD: Australia trade
  • CN50: China Caixin services PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone HCOB Services PMI, ECB meeting minutes
  • JPY: Japan S&P Global Services PMI
  • USDInd: US June nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims

Friday, 4th July 

  • SG20: Singapore retail sales
  • EUR: Eurozone PPI, Germany factory orders
  • Senate vote for signing a Republican-backed tax and spending bill.
  • US markets closed: Independence Day holiday

Here are 4 key events that could rattle the EURUSD:

 

1) ECB’s annual forum in Sintra

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will kick off the ECB forum with a keynote speech on Monday, 30th June. 

Lagarde will be under the spotlight again on Tuesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank heads discussing “macroeconomic shifts and policy responses”. Should Lagarde or Powell offer any fresh clues about future monetary policy, this could result in heightened volatility on the EURUSD.

 

2) Eurozone June CPI + data dump

Inflation data from Europe on Tuesday, 1st July could influence expectations around when the ECB will cut interest rates. 

Markets are forecasting: 

  • CPI year-on-year (June 2024 vs. June 2025) is expected to rise 1.9%
  • Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 2.3%
  • CPI month-on-month (June 2025 vs May 2025) to rise 0.2% from 0.0%.

EURUSD is forecasted to move as much as 0.4% or decline 0.3% in a 6-hour window post release.

  • A softer inflation may fuel speculation around lower rates in Europe, dragging the EURUSD lower.
  • A hotter-than-expected inflation report could shave ECB cut bets, resulting in a stronger Euro.

Traders are currently pricing a 55% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by September. 

Note: Beyond the Eurozone CPI data, it will be wise to keep an eye on the German CPI report, Manufacturing PMI’s, Eurozone unemployment and PPI which may influence the euro.

 

3) US June nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Here is what markets predict for the key US jobs report on Thursday 3rd July: 

June headline NFP number: 120,000

If so, that would be lower than the 139k new jobs created in May. 

June unemployment rate: 4.3%

This would represent a 0.1% increase from the 4.2% in May. 

  • A weaker-than-expected US jobs report may weaken the dollar, pushing the EURUSD higher as a result.
  • Should the US jobs report print stronger than expected, the EURUSD may sink as the Dollar strengthens. 

EURUSD is forecasted to move 0.30% up or 0.73% down in the 6 hours after this US NFP release

 

4) Technical forces

The EURUSD is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index signals that prices are heavily overbought. 

  • A solid daily close above 1.1700 may signal a move toward 1.1800 and 1.1880 – the upper limit of the Bloomberg FX model.

 

  • Should 1.1700 prove to be a tough resistance, this could trigger a decline back toward 1.1620 and 1.1557 – the lower limit of the Bloomberg FX model.
Imagen
eurusd2

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 75% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.1557 – 1.1880 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Uranium Tech Breakthroughs Leading to Global Nuclear Renaissance

Source: Streetwise Reports (6/20/25)

U.S. President Donald Trump enacted executive orders designed to accelerate reactor approvals, enhance domestic uranium production and enrichment capabilities, and promote nuclear technologies. See how this has put the nuclear and uranium sectors in focus for investors. 

U.S. President Donald Trump in May enacted four executive orders designed to accelerate reactor approvals, enhance domestic uranium production and enrichment capabilities, and promote the advancement of innovative nuclear technologies.

Trump urged the federal government to expedite the construction of nuclear reactors and to reform the “risk averse” regulatory environment, with the goal of increasing the country’s nuclear energy capacity fourfold by 2050, reported Kamen Kraev for NucNet on May 26.

The directives call for the Department of Energy (DOE) to initiate the construction of 10 large reactors by 2030 and to assist in financing upgrades for existing facilities.

A statement from the White House proclaimed that “America will usher in a nuclear energy renaissance,” after years of “stagnation and shuttered reactors,” Kraev wrote.

“Across the country, American entrepreneurs and engineers are launching a new generation of nuclear companies featuring innovative reactor designs and scalable manufacturing techniques that can make nuclear safe, efficient, and economic,” said White House Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios in an opinion piece on The White House website. “The Trump Administration will clear their path by dismantling outdated barriers that previous administrations had put up in their way.”

Per the announcement, the orders require the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to simplify licensing processes for new reactors, permit testing of reactor designs at DOE laboratories, and allow new reactor construction on federal lands.

The NRC is expected to shorten approval timelines from multiple years to 18 months, while the DOE will identify federal land that is suitable for new nuclear facilities, and initiatives will be undertaken to bolster U.S. uranium mining and domestic enrichment capacities.

“The NRC has failed to license new reactors even as technological advances promise to make nuclear power safer, cheaper, more adaptable, and more abundant than ever,” a fact sheet from the White House stated, according to Kraev’s report.

Kratsios added in his piece, “America’s great innovators and entrepreneurs have run into brick walls when it comes to nuclear technology.”

The Catalyst: Global Investment Growing

The uranium sector has transitioned into a period of heightened focus as the U.S. seeks to revitalize the domestic atomic energy industry and its related supply infrastructure.

Around the world, the transition to clean energy and decarbonization goals have sparked renewed interest in nuclear power, leading to surging demand.

Several countries, including the U.S., the United Kingdom and South Korea, have announced plans to expand nuclear energy capacity by 2050, reported The Astana Times on June 10. Other countries are exploring new builds and/or extending the life span of existing nuclear power plants.

New and high demand is coming from technology sectors needing reliable, carbon-free, around-the-clock power to run their data centers and artificial intelligence systems. Tech giants, including Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Google, continue to invest in nuclear energy to meet this need.

Global investment in nuclear energy has grown 50% each year since 2020, and nuclear capacity is expected to increase 130% by 2050, The Astana Times reported.

Recently introduced governmental initiatives regarding the U.S. uranium sector already have increased domestic momentum and renewed optimism, purported HoldCo Markets in a May 28 research report.

“We anticipate uranium stocks, both large and small, to benefit from changing U.S. nuclear policy,” wrote David Talbot, head of equity research at Red Cloud Securities, in a May 23 Uranium Sector Update.

Using Lasers to Separate Isotopes

LIS Technologies Inc. (LIST), a U.S.-based private company, specializes in proprietary development of an advanced technology to utilize infrared lasers for the selective excitation of molecules, allowing for the separation of desired isotopes from others.

Its Laser Isotope Separation Technology (L.I.S.T) boasts a wide array of applications, distinguishing itself as the only U.S.-origin (and patented) laser uranium enrichment firm, while offering numerous advantages over conventional techniques such as gas diffusion, centrifugation, and previous laser enrichment methods. The proprietary laser-driven process developed by LIST is designed to be more energy-efficient and presents the opportunity for deployment with significantly competitive capital and operational expenses.

L.I.S.T focuses on Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) for existing civilian nuclear facilities, High-Assay LEU (HALEU) aimed at the next generation of Small Modular Reactors (SMR) and Microreactors, the production of stable isotopes for medical and scientific applications, as well as contributions to quantum computing production for semiconductor technologies, the company said. LIS boasts a top-tier nuclear technical team collaborating with prominent nuclear entrepreneurs and industry experts, fostering strong connections within both governmental and private nuclear sectors.

In 2024, LIS Technologies Inc. was chosen as one of six domestic firms to engage in the LEU Enrichment Acquisition Program, which has a total budget of up to $3.4 billion, with contracts extending up to 10 years. Each recipient is projected to secure a minimum contract of US$2 million.

The company has been folding in talent recently, appointing former Deputy Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Brent Park as its executive director of nuclear security and safeguards policy, prominent researcher and engineer Lakasz Urbanski as director of its stable isotope laser program, and leading regulatory expert Julie Olivier as its regulatory affairs and licensing director.

“LIST’s technology arrives at a pivotal moment, as the United States accelerates efforts to build a secure, domestic nuclear‑fuel supply chain,” Park said. “This proprietary technology can be a key step toward reducing reliance on foreign sources of enriched uranium and strengthening our national energy independence. I’m honored to join the company and look forward to advising the leadership team as they advance the CRISLA technology from revival to commercialization.”

Technology Undergoes Evaluation

Last month, the company announced that a group of independent evaluators conducted a Technology Readiness Level Assessment (TRA) of its CRISLA-3G technology at the LIST facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

The CRISLA-3G laser isotope separation technology underwent evaluation and was confirmed to satisfy all criteria necessary for a TRL-4 rating, in accordance with the Department of Energy guidelines specified in DOE G 413.3-4A. This indicates that all essential components were successfully validated in a lab setting, backed by experimental outcomes from the integrated system.

“We are very pleased that the independent Technology Readiness Assessment team scored our TRL at 4, meeting 27 out of 27 criteria,” said Chief Executive Officer and co-founder Christo Liebenberg. “Additionally, the critical technical elements (CTEs) necessary for advancing through TRL-5, TRL-6, and TRL-7 in the upcoming years were also identified. We are confident in our capability to achieve all these CTEs as we pursue our path to commercialization.”

“With our engagement with the TRL assessment team, I feel reassured that our technology is progressing in the right direction,” said Co-Chief Technical Officer Viktor Chikan. “In my opinion, the TRL assessment offers essential transparency for both investors and the technical team to implement the project plan effectively and realize the commercial enrichment facility based on CRISLA technology.”

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc.

One public company on the cutting edge of new nuclear designs is NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE:NASDAQ). Earlier this year, the company set up a dedicated demonstration facility in Westchester County, New York, aimed at testing and validating essential non-nuclear elements of its microreactor designs. This facility will underpin the development of four microreactor models — ZEUS, ODIN, LOKI MMR, and KRONOS MMR — all engineered to deliver portable and scalable solutions for clean energy.

A primary emphasis of the facility will be on the company’s work with the Annular Linear Induction Pump (ALIP) technology, developed as part of a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase III initiative. ALIP is an electromagnetic pump geared toward efficient thermal fluid management, which is crucial for nuclear energy applications. “This advanced facility will play a major role in our development efforts, providing our technical teams with access to key physical data,” stated Jay Yu, Founder and Chairman of NANO Nuclear Energy, in the press release.

To aid in the facility’s construction and development, NANO Nuclear has collaborated with aRobotics Company, an innovator in robotic fabrication and engineering. aRobotics will oversee the multimillion-dollar expansion of the facility and manage the production of crucial non-nuclear components for NANO Nuclear’s reactors, including tailored sensors and equipment to enhance ALIP technology. Their extensive background with the U.S. Department of Defense is expected to bolster safety and performance standards as NANO Nuclear progresses with its reactor innovations.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE:NASDAQ)

Retail: 52%
Strategic Investors: 24%
Institutions: 22%
Management & Insiders: 2%
52.0%
24.0%
22.0%
*Share Structure as of 6/20/2025

 

This facility is particularly timely, as New York State is investigating advanced nuclear energy options. NANO Nuclear has recently replied to a Request for Information (RFI) from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) concerning the potential for new nuclear technology initiatives within the state. The company anticipates that the facility will be operational by the spring of 2025.

“Once operational, the facility will provide our technical teams with invaluable opportunities to gather physical data and optimize designs to integrate non-nuclear components effectively,” Chief Executive Officer and Head of Reactor Development James Walker said.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Refinitv, 24% of Nano Nuclear is held by one strategic investor, I Financial Ventures Group LLC. Nearly 2% is with management and insiders, 22% is with institutions, and the rest is retail.

Notably, NNE was added to the VanEck Nuclear ETF, signaling increased institutional confidence and positioning the company within a portfolio of key players in the nuclear energy sector.

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. has a market capitalization of approximately US$1.57 billion, with 41.39 million shares outstanding.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of LIS Technologies Inc.
  2. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  3. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

AI helps tell snow leopards apart, improving population counts for these majestic mountain predators

By Eve Bohnett, University of Florida 

Snow leopards are known as the “ghosts of the mountains” for a reason. Imagine waiting for months in the harsh, rugged mountains of Asia, hoping to catch even a glimpse of one. These elusive big cats move silently across rocky slopes, their pale coats blending so seamlessly with snow and stone that even the most seasoned biologists seldom spot them in the wild.

Travel writer Peter Matthiessen spent two months in 1973 searching the Tibetan plateau for them and wrote a 300-page book about the effort. He never saw one. Forty years later, Peter’s son Alex retraced his father’s steps – and didn’t see one either.

Researchers have struggled to come up with a figure for the global population. In 2017, the International Union for Conservation of Nature reclassified the snow leopard from endangered to vulnerable, citing estimates of between 2,500 and 10,000 adults in the wild. However, the group also warned that numbers continue to decline in many areas due to habitat loss, poaching and human-wildlife conflict. Those who study these animals want to help protect the species and their habitat – if only we can determine exactly where they live and how many there are.

Traditional tracking methods – searching for footprints, droppings and other signs – have their limits. Instead of waiting for a lucky face-to-face encounter, conservationists from the Wildlife Conservation Society, led by experts including Stéphane Ostrowski and Sorosh Poya Faryabi, began deploying automated camera traps in Afghanistan. These devices snap photos whenever movement is detected, capturing thousands of images over months, all in hopes of obtaining a rare glimpse of a snow leopard.

But capturing images is only half the battle. The next, even harder task is telling one snow leopard apart from another.

Two images of snow leopards.
Are these the same animal or different ones? It’s really hard to tell.
Eve Bohnett, CC BY-ND

At first glance, it might sound simple: Each snow leopard has a unique pattern of black rosettes on its coat, like a fingerprint or a face in a crowd. Yet in practice, identifying individuals by these patterns is slow, subjective and prone to error. Photos may be taken at odd angles, under poor lighting, or with parts of the animal obscured – making matches tricky.

A common mistake happens when photos from different cameras are marked as depicting different animals when they actually show the same individual, inflating population estimates. Worse, camera trap images can get mixed up or misfiled, splitting encounters of one cat across multiple batches and identities.

I am a data analyst working with Wildlife Conservation Society and other partners at Wild Me. My work and others’ has found that even trained experts can misidentify animals, failing to recognize repeat visitors at locations monitored by motion-sensing cameras and counting the same animal more than once. One study found that the snow leopard population was overestimated by more than 30% because of these human errors.

To avoid these pitfalls, researchers follow camera sorting guidelines: At least three clear pattern differences or similarities must be confirmed between two images to declare them the same or different cats. Images too blurry, too dark or taken from difficult angles may have to be discarded. Identification efforts range from easy cases with clear, full-body shots to ambiguous ones needing collaboration and debate. Despite these efforts, variability remains, and more experienced observers tend to be more accurate.

Now people trying to count snow leopards are getting help from artificial intelligence systems, in two ways.

Spotting the spots

Modern AI tools are revolutionizing how we process these large photo libraries. First, AI can rapidly sort through thousands of images, flagging those that contain snow leopards and ignoring irrelevant ones such as those that depict blue sheep, gray-and-white mountain terrain, or shadows.

A snow leopard stands amid rocks.
Unique spots and spot patterns are key to telling snow leopards apart.
Eve Bohnett, CC BY-NC-ND

AI can identify individual snow leopards by analyzing their unique rosette patterns, even when poses or lighting vary. Each snow leopard encounter is compared with a catalog of previously identified photos and assigned a known ID if there is a match, or entered as a new individual if not.

In a recent study, several colleagues and I evaluated two AI algorithms, both separately and in tandem.

The first algorithm, called HotSpotter, identifies individual snow leopards by comparing key visual features such as coat patterns, highlighting distinctive “hot spots” with a yellow marker.

The second is a newer method called pose invariant embeddings, which operates similar to facial recognition technology: It recognizes layers of abstract features in the data, identifying the same animal regardless of how it is positioned in the photo or what kind of lighting there may be.

We trained these systems using a curated dataset of photos of snow leopards from zoos in the U.S., Europe and Tajikistan, and with images from the wild, including in Afghanistan.

Alone, each model worked about 74% of the time, correctly identifying the cat from a large photo library. But when combined, the two systems together were correct 85% of the time.

These algorithms were integrated into Wildbook, an open-source, web-based software platform developed by the nonprofit organization Wild Me and now adopted by ConservationX. We deployed the combined system on a free website, Whiskerbook.org, where researchers can upload images, seek matches using the algorithms, and confirm those matches with side-by-side comparisons. This site is among a growing family of AI-powered wildlife platforms that are helping conservation biologists work more efficiently and more effectively at protecting species and their habitats.

Two images of snow leopards, one in daylight and one in infrared light.
A view from an online wildlife-tracking system suggests a possible match for a snow leopard caught by a remote camera.
Wildbook/Eve Bohnett, CC BY-ND

Humans still needed

These AI systems aren’t error-proof. AI quickly narrows down candidates and flags likely matches, but expert validation ensures accuracy, especially with tricky or ambiguous photos.

Another study we conducted pitted AI-assisted groups of experts and novices against each other. Each was given a set of three to 10 images of 34 known captive snow leopards and asked to use the Whiskerbook platform to identify them. They were also asked to estimate how many individual animals were in the set of photos.

The experts accurately matched about 90% of the images and delivered population estimates within about 3% of the true number. In contrast, the novices identified only 73% of the cats and underestimated the total number, sometimes by 25% or more, incorrectly merging two individuals into one.

Both sets of results were better than when experts or novices did not use any software.

The takeaway is clear: Human expertise remains important, and combining it with AI support leads to the most accurate results. My colleagues and I hope that by using tools like Whiskerbook and the AI systems embedded in them, researchers will be able to more quickly and more confidently study these elusive animals.

With AI tools like Whiskerbook illuminating the mysteries of these mountain ghosts, we have another way to safeguard snow leopards – but success depends on continued commitment to protecting their fragile mountain homes.The Conversation

About the Author:

Eve Bohnett, Assistant Scholar, Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, University of Florida

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

What is vibe coding? A computer scientist explains what it means to have AI write computer code − and what risks that can entail

By Chetan Jaiswal, Quinnipiac University 

Whether you’re streaming a show, paying bills online or sending an email, each of these actions relies on computer programs that run behind the scenes. The process of writing computer programs is known as coding. Until recently, most computer code was written, at least originally, by human beings. But with the advent of generative artificial intelligence, that has begun to change.

Now, just as you can ask ChatGPT to spin up a recipe for a favorite dish or write a sonnet in the style of Lord Byron, you can now ask generative AI tools to write computer code for you. Andrej Karpathy, an OpenAI co-founder who previously led AI efforts at Tesla, recently termed this “vibe coding.”

For complete beginners or nontechnical dreamers, writing code based on vibes – feelings rather than explicitly defined information – could feel like a superpower. You don’t need to master programming languages or complex data structures. A simple natural language prompt will do the trick.

How it works

Vibe coding leans on standard patterns of technical language, which AI systems use to piece together original code from their training data. Any beginner can use an AI assistant such as GitHub Copilot or Cursor Chat, put in a few prompts, and let the system get to work. Here’s an example:

“Create a lively and interactive visual experience that reacts to music, user interaction or real-time data. Your animation should include smooth transitions and colorful and lively visuals with an engaging flow in the experience. The animation should feel organic and responsive to the music, user interaction or live data and facilitate an experience that is immersive and captivating. Complete this project using JavaScript or React, and allow for easy customization to set the mood for other experiences.”

But AI tools do this without any real grasp of specific rules, edge cases or security requirements for the software in question. This is a far cry from the processes behind developing production-grade software, which must balance trade-offs between product requirements, speed, scalability, sustainability and security. Skilled engineers write and review the code, run tests and establish safety barriers before going live.

But while the lack of a structured process saves time and lowers the skills required to code, there are trade-offs. With vibe coding, most of these stress-testing practices go out the window, leaving systems vulnerable to malicious attacks and leaks of personal data.

And there’s no easy fix: If you don’t understand every – or any – line of code that your AI agent writes, you can’t repair the code when it breaks. Or worse, as some experts have pointed out, you won’t notice when it’s silently failing.

The AI itself is not equipped to carry out this analysis either. It recognizes what “working” code usually looks like, but it cannot necessarily diagnose or fix deeper problems that the code might cause or exacerbate.

IBM computer scientist Martin Keen explains the difference between AI programming and traditional programming.

Why it matters

Vibe coding could be just a flash-in-the-pan phenomenon that will fizzle before long, but it may also find deeper applications with seasoned programmers. The practice could help skilled software engineers and developers more quickly turn an idea into a viable prototype. It could also enable novice programmers or even amateur coders to experience the power of AI, perhaps motivating them to pursue the discipline more deeply.

Vibe coding also may signal a shift that could make natural language a more viable tool for developing some computer programs. If so, it would echo early website editing systems known as WYSIWYG editors that promised designers “what you see is what you get,” or “drag-and-drop” website builders that made it easy for anyone with basic computer skills to launch a blog.

For now, I don’t believe that vibe coding will replace experienced software engineers, developers or computer scientists. The discipline and the art are much more nuanced than what AI can handle, and the risks of passing off “vibe code” as legitimate software are too great.

But as AI models improve and become more adept at incorporating context and accounting for risk, practices like vibe coding might cause the boundary between AI and human programmer to blur further.The Conversation

About the Author:

Chetan Jaiswal, Associate Professor of Computer Science, Quinnipiac University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

RNA has newly identified role: Repairing serious DNA damage to maintain the genome

By Francesca Storici, Georgia Institute of Technology 

Your DNA is continually damaged by sources both inside and outside your body. One especially severe form of damage called a double-strand break involves the severing of both strands of the DNA double helix.

Double-strand breaks are among the most difficult forms of DNA damage for cells to repair because they disrupt the continuity of DNA and leave no intact template to base new strands on. If misrepaired, these breaks can lead to other mutations that make the genome unstable and increase the risk of many diseases, including cancer, neurodegeneration and immunodeficiency.

Cells primarily repair double-strand breaks by either rejoining the broken DNA ends or by using another DNA molecule as a template for repair. However, my team and I discovered that RNA, a type of genetic material best known for its role in making proteins, surprisingly plays a key role in facilitating the repair of these harmful breaks.

These insights could not only pave the way for new treatment strategies for genetic disorders, cancer and neurodegenerative diseases, but also enhance gene-editing technologies.

Sealing a knowledge gap in DNA repair

I have spent the past two decades investigating the relationship between RNA and DNA in order to understand how cells maintain genome integrity and how these mechanisms could be harnessed for genetic engineering.

A long-standing question in the field has been whether RNA in cells helps keep the genome stable beyond acting as a copy of DNA in the process of making proteins and a regulator of gene expression. Studying how RNA might do this has been especially difficult due to its similarity to DNA and how fast it degrades. It’s also technically challenging to tell whether the RNA is directly working to repair DNA or indirectly regulating the process. Traditional models and tools for studying DNA repair have for the most part focused on proteins and DNA, leaving RNA’s potential contributions largely unexplored.

RNA plays a key role in protein synthesis.

My team and I were curious about whether RNA might actively participate in fixing double-strand breaks as a first line of defense. To explore this, we used the gene-editing tool CRISPR-Cas9 to make breaks at specific spots in the DNA of human and yeast cells. We then analyzed how RNA influences various aspects of the repair process, including efficiency and outcomes.

We found that RNA can actively guide the repair process of double-strand breaks. It does this by binding to broken DNA ends, helping align sequences of DNA on a matching strand that isn’t broken. It can also seal gaps or remove mismatched segments, further influencing whether and how the original sequence is restored.

Additionally, we found that RNA aids in double-strand break repair in both yeast and human cells, suggesting that its role in DNA repair is evolutionary conserved across species. Notably, even low levels of RNA were sufficient to influence the efficiency and outcome of repair, pointing to its broad and previously unrecognized function in maintaining genome stability.

RNA in control

By uncovering RNA’s previously unknown function to repair DNA damage, our findings show how RNA may directly contribute to the stability and evolution of the genome. It’s not merely a passive messenger, but an active participant in genome maintenance.

These insights could help researchers develop new ways to target the genomic instability that underlies many diseases, including cancer and neurodegeneration. Traditionally, treatments and gene-editing tools have focused almost exclusively on DNA or proteins. Our findings suggest that modifying RNA in different ways could also influence how cells respond to DNA damage. For example, researchers could design RNA-based therapies to enhance the repair of harmful breaks that could cause cancer, or selectively disrupt DNA break repair in cancer cells to help kill them.

In addition, these findings could improve the precision of gene-editing technologies like CRISPR by accounting for interactions between RNA and DNA at the site of the cut. This could reduce off-target effects and increase editing precision, ultimately contributing to the development of safer and more effective gene therapies.

There are still many unanswered questions about how RNA interacts with DNA in the repair process. The evolutionary role that RNA plays in maintaining genome stability is also unclear. But one thing is certain: RNA is no longer just a messenger, it is a molecule with a direct hand in DNA repair, rewriting what researchers know about how cells safeguard their genetic code.The Conversation

About the Author:

Francesca Storici, Professor of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

AI literacy: What it is, what it isn’t, who needs it and why it’s hard to define

By Daniel S. Schiff, Purdue University; Arne Bewersdorff, Technical University of Munich, and Marie Hornberger, Technical University of Munich 

It is “the policy of the United States to promote AI literacy and proficiency among Americans,” reads an executive order President Donald Trump issued on April 23, 2025. The executive order, titled Advancing Artificial Intelligence Education for American Youth, signals that advancing AI literacy is now an official national priority.

This raises a series of important questions: What exactly is AI literacy, who needs it, and how do you go about building it thoughtfully and responsibly?

The implications of AI literacy, or lack thereof, are far-reaching. They extend beyond national ambitions to remain “a global leader in this technological revolution” or even prepare an “AI-skilled workforce,” as the executive order states. Without basic literacy, citizens and consumers are not well equipped to understand the algorithmic platforms and decisions that affect so many domains of their lives: government services, privacy, lending, health care, news recommendations and more. And the lack of AI literacy risks ceding important aspects of society’s future to a handful of multinational companies.

How, then, can institutions help people understand and use – or resist – AI as individuals, workers, parents, innovators, job seekers, students, employers and citizens? We are a policy scientist and two educational researchers who study AI literacy, and we explore these issues in our research.

What AI literacy is and isn’t

At its foundation, AI literacy includes a mix of knowledge, skills and attitudes that are technical, social and ethical in nature. According to one prominent definition, AI literacy refers to “a set of competencies that enables individuals to critically evaluate AI technologies; communicate and collaborate effectively with AI; and use AI as a tool online, at home, and in the workplace.”

AI literacy is not simply programming or the mechanics of neural networks, and it is certainly not just prompt engineering – that is, the act of carefully writing prompts for chatbots. Vibe coding, or using AI to write software code, might be fun and important, but restricting the definition of literacy to the newest trend or the latest need of employers won’t cover the bases in the long term. And while a single master definition may not be needed, or even desirable, too much variation makes it tricky to decide on organizational, educational or policy strategies.

Who needs AI literacy? Everyone, including the employees and students using it, and the citizens grappling with its growing impacts. Every sector and sphere of society is now involved with AI, even if this isn’t always easy for people to see.

Exactly how much literacy everyone needs and how to get there is a much tougher question. Are a few quick HR training sessions enough, or do we need to embed AI across K-12 curricula and deliver university micro credentials and hands-on workshops? There is much that researchers don’t know, which leads to the need to measure AI literacy and the effectiveness of different training approaches.

Ethics is an important aspect of AI literacy.

Measuring AI literacy

While there is a growing and bipartisan consensus that AI literacy matters, there’s much less consensus on how to actually understand people’s AI literacy levels. Researchers have focused on different aspects, such as technical or ethical skills, or on different populations – for example, business managers and students – or even on subdomains like generative AI.

A recent review study identified more than a dozen questionnaires designed to measure AI literacy, the vast majority of which rely on self-reported responses to questions and statements such as “I feel confident about using AI.” There’s also a lack of testing to see whether these questionnaires work well for people from different cultural backgrounds.

Moreover, the rise of generative AI has exposed gaps and challenges: Is it possible to create a stable way to measure AI literacy when AI is itself so dynamic?

In our research collaboration, we’ve tried to help address some of these problems. In particular, we’ve focused on creating objective knowledge assessments, such as multiple-choice surveys tested with thorough statistical analyses to ensure that they accurately measure AI literacy. We’ve so far tested a multiple-choice survey in the U.S., U.K. and Germany and found that it works consistently and fairly across these three countries.

There’s a lot more work to do to create reliable and feasible testing approaches. But going forward, just asking people to self-report their AI literacy probably isn’t enough to understand where different groups of people are and what supports they need.

Approaches to building AI literacy

Governments, universities and industry are trying to advance AI literacy.

Finland launched the Elements of AI series in 2018 with the hope of educating its general public on AI. Estonia’s AI Leap initiative partners with Anthropic and OpenAI to provide access to AI tools for tens of thousands of students and thousands of teachers. And China is now requiring at least eight hours of AI education annually as early as elementary school, which goes a step beyond the new U.S. executive order. On the university level, Purdue University and the University of Pennsylvania have launched new master’s in AI programs, targeting future AI leaders.

Despite these efforts, these initiatives face an unclear and evolving understanding of AI literacy. They also face challenges to measuring effectiveness and minimal knowledge on what teaching approaches actually work. And there are long-standing issues with respect to equity − for example, reaching schools, communities, segments of the population and businesses that are stretched or under-resourced.

Next moves on AI literacy

Based on our research, experience as educators and collaboration with policymakers and technology companies, we think a few steps might be prudent.

Building AI literacy starts with recognizing it’s not just about tech: People also need to grasp the social and ethical sides of the technology. To see whether we’re getting there, we researchers and educators should use clear, reliable tests that track progress for different age groups and communities. Universities and companies can try out new teaching ideas first, then share what works through an independent hub. Educators, meanwhile, need proper training and resources, not just additional curricula, to bring AI into the classroom. And because opportunity isn’t spread evenly, partnerships that reach under-resourced schools and neighborhoods are essential so everyone can benefit.

Critically, achieving widespread AI literacy may be even harder than building digital and media literacy, so getting there will require serious investment – not cuts – to education and research.

There is widespread consensus that AI literacy is important, whether to boost AI trust and adoption or to empower citizens to challenge AI or shape its future. As with AI itself, we believe it’s important to approach AI literacy carefully, avoiding hype or an overly technical focus. The right approach can prepare students to become “active and responsible participants in the workforce of the future” and empower Americans to “thrive in an increasingly digital society,” as the AI literacy executive order calls for.

The Conversation will be hosting a free webinar on practical and safe use of AI with our tech editor and an AI expert on June 24 at 2pm ET/11am PT. Sign up to get your questions answered.The Conversation

About the Author:

Daniel S. Schiff, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Purdue University; Arne Bewersdorff, Post Doctoral Researcher in Educational Sciences, Technical University of Munich, and Marie Hornberger, Research Associate at the School of Social Sciences and Technology, Technical University of Munich

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

How was the wheel invented? Computer simulations reveal the unlikely birth of a world-changing technology nearly 6,000 years ago

By Kai James, Georgia Institute of Technology 

Imagine you’re a copper miner in southeastern Europe in the year 3900 B.C.E. Day after day you haul copper ore through the mine’s sweltering tunnels.

You’ve resigned yourself to the grueling monotony of mining life. Then one afternoon, you witness a fellow worker doing something remarkable.

With an odd-looking contraption, he casually transports the equivalent of three times his body weight on a single trip. As he returns to the mine to fetch another load, it suddenly dawns on you that your chosen profession is about to get far less taxing and much more lucrative.

What you don’t realize: You’re witnessing something that will change the course of history – not just for your tiny mining community, but for all of humanity.

AI-generated image of a wheeled cart inside a mine tunnel.
An illustration of what the original mine carts used in the Carpathian mountains may have looked like in 3900 B.C.E.
Kai James via DALL·E

Despite the wheel’s immeasurable impact, no one is certain as to who invented it, or when and where it was first conceived. The hypothetical scenario described above is based on a 2015 theory that miners in the Carpathian Mountains – in present-day Hungary – first invented the wheel nearly 6,000 years ago as a means to transport copper ore.

The theory is supported by the discovery of more than 150 miniaturized wagons by archaeologists working in the region. These pint-sized, four-wheeled models were made from clay, and their outer surfaces were engraved with a wickerwork pattern reminiscent of the basketry used by mining communities at the time. Carbon dating later revealed that these wagons are the earliest known depictions of wheeled transport to date.

This theory also raises a question of particular interest to me, an aerospace engineer who studies the science of engineering design. How did an obscure, scientifically naive mining society discover the wheel, when highly advanced civilizations, such as the ancient Egyptians, did not?

A controversial idea

It has long been assumed that wheels evolved from simple wooden rollers. But until recently no one could explain how or why this transformation took place. What’s more, beginning in the 1960s, some researchers started to express strong doubts about the roller-to-wheel theory.

After all, for rollers to be useful, they require flat, firm terrain and a path free of inclines and sharp curves. Furthermore, once the cart passes them, used rollers need to be continually brought around to the front of the line to keep the cargo moving. For all these reasons, the ancient world used rollers sparingly. According to the skeptics, rollers were too rare and too impractical to have been the starting point for the evolution of the wheel.

But a mine – with its enclosed, human-made passageways – would have provided favorable conditions for rollers. This factor, among others, compelled my team to revisit the roller hypothesis.

Flow chart showing the key stages of the evolution from rollers to wheels.
Key stages in the evolution of the first wheels, beginning from simple rollers and eventually arriving at a wheel-and-axle structure in which a slender axle is connected to large solid discs, or wheels, on both ends.
Kai James

A turning point

The transition from rollers to wheels requires two key innovations. The first is a modification of the cart that carries the cargo. The cart’s base must be outfitted with semicircular sockets, which hold the rollers in place. This way, as the operator pulls the cart, the rollers are pulled along with it.

This innovation may have been motivated by the confined nature of the mine environment, where having to periodically carry used rollers back around to the front of the cart would have been especially onerous.

The discovery of socketed rollers represented a turning point in the evolution of the wheel and paved the way for the second and most important innovation. This next step involved a change to the rollers themselves. To understand how and why this change occurred, we turned to physics and computer-aided engineering.

Simulating the wheel’s evolution

To begin our investigation, we created a computer program designed to simulate the evolution from a roller to a wheel. Our hypothesis was that this transformation was driven by a phenomenon called “mechanical advantage.” This same principle allows pliers to amplify a user’s grip strength by providing added leverage. Similarly, if we could modify the shape of the roller to generate mechanical advantage, this would amplify the user’s pushing force, making it easier to advance the cart.

Our algorithm worked by modeling hundreds of potential roller shapes and evaluating how each one performed, both in terms of mechanical advantage and structural strength. The latter was used to determine whether a given roller would break under the weight of the cargo. As predicted, the algorithm ultimately converged upon the familiar wheel-and-axle shape, which it determined to be optimal.

This diagram shows twelve illustrations, progressing from images of rollers to a wheel-and-axle structure.
A computer simulation of the evolution from a roller to a wheel-and-axle structure. Each image represents a design evaluated by the algorithm. The search ultimately converges upon the familiar wheel-and-axle design.
Kai James

During the execution of the algorithm, each new design performed slightly better than its predecessor. We believe a similar evolutionary process played out with the miners 6,000 years ago.

It is unclear what initially prompted the miners to explore alternative roller shapes. One possibility is that friction at the roller-socket interface caused the surrounding wood to wear away, leading to a slight narrowing of the roller at the point of contact. Another theory is that the miners began thinning out the rollers so that their carts could pass over small obstructions on the ground.

Either way, thanks to mechanical advantage, this narrowing of the axle region made the carts easier to push. As time passed, better-performing designs were repeatedly favored over the others, and new rollers were crafted to mimic these top performers.

Consequently, the rollers became more and more narrow, until all that remained was a slender bar capped on both ends by large discs. This rudimentary structure marks the birth of what we now refer to as “the wheel.”

According to our theory, there was no precise moment at which the wheel was invented. Rather, just like the evolution of species, the wheel emerged gradually from an accumulation of small improvements.

This is just one of the many chapters in the wheel’s long and ongoing evolution. More than 5,000 years after the contributions of the Carpathian miners, a Parisian bicycle mechanic invented radial ball bearings, which once again revolutionized wheeled transportation.

Ironically, ball bearings are conceptually identical to rollers, the wheel’s evolutionary precursor. Ball bearings form a ring around the axle, creating a rolling interface between the axle and the wheel hub, thereby circumventing friction. With this innovation, the evolution of the wheel came full circle.

This example also shows how the wheel’s evolution, much like its iconic shape, traces a circuitous path – one with no clear beginning, no end, and countless quiet revolutions along the way.The Conversation

About the Author:

Kai James, Professor of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Will AI take your job? The answer could hinge on the 4 S’s of the technology’s advantages over humans

By Bruce Schneier, Harvard Kennedy School and Nathan Sanders, Harvard University 

If you’ve worried that AI might take your job, deprive you of your livelihood, or maybe even replace your role in society, it probably feels good to see the latest AI tools fail spectacularly. If AI recommends glue as a pizza topping, then you’re safe for another day.

But the fact remains that AI already has definite advantages over even the most skilled humans, and knowing where these advantages arise — and where they don’t — will be key to adapting to the AI-infused workforce.

AI will often not be as effective as a human doing the same job. It won’t always know more or be more accurate. And it definitely won’t always be fairer or more reliable. But it may still be used whenever it has an advantage over humans in one of four dimensions: speed, scale, scope and sophistication. Understanding these dimensions is the key to understanding AI-human replacement.

Speed

First, speed. There are tasks that humans are perfectly good at but are not nearly as fast as AI. One example is restoring or upscaling images: taking pixelated, noisy or blurry images and making a crisper and higher-resolution version. Humans are good at this; given the right digital tools and enough time, they can fill in fine details. But they are too slow to efficiently process large images or videos.

AI models can do the job blazingly fast, a capability with important industrial applications. AI-based software is used to enhance satellite and remote sensing data, to compress video files, to make video games run better with cheaper hardware and less energy, to help robots make the right movements, and to model turbulence to help build better internal combustion engines.

Real-time performance matters in these cases, and the speed of AI is necessary to enable them.

Scale

The second dimension of AI’s advantage over humans is scale. AI will increasingly be used in tasks that humans can do well in one place at a time, but that AI can do in millions of places simultaneously. A familiar example is ad targeting and personalization. Human marketers can collect data and predict what types of people will respond to certain advertisements. This capability is important commercially; advertising is a trillion-dollar market globally.

AI models can do this for every single product, TV show, website and internet user. This is how the modern ad-tech industry works. Real-time bidding markets price the display ads that appear alongside the websites you visit, and advertisers use AI models to decide when they want to pay that price – thousands of times per second.

Scope

Next, scope. AI can be advantageous when it does more things than any one person could, even when a human might do better at any one of those tasks. Generative AI systems such as ChatGPT can engage in conversation on any topic, write an essay espousing any position, create poetry in any style and language, write computer code in any programming language, and more. These models may not be superior to skilled humans at any one of these things, but no single human could outperform top-tier generative models across them all.

It’s the combination of these competencies that generates value. Employers often struggle to find people with talents in disciplines such as software development and data science who also have strong prior knowledge of the employer’s domain. Organizations are likely to continue to rely on human specialists to write the best code and the best persuasive text, but they will increasingly be satisfied with AI when they just need a passable version of either.

How AI is affecting the job market.

Sophistication

Finally, sophistication. AIs can consider more factors in their decisions than humans can, and this can endow them with superhuman performance on specialized tasks. Computers have long been used to keep track of a multiplicity of factors that compound and interact in ways more complex than a human could trace. The 1990s chess-playing computer systems such as Deep Blue succeeded by thinking a dozen or more moves ahead.

Modern AI systems use a radically different approach: Deep learning systems built from many-layered neural networks take account of complex interactions – often many billions – among many factors. Neural networks now power the best chess-playing models and most other AI systems.

Chess is not the only domain where eschewing conventional rules and formal logic in favor of highly sophisticated and inscrutable systems has generated progress. The stunning advance of AlphaFold2, the AI model of structural biology whose creators Demis Hassabis and John Jumper were recognized with the Nobel Prize in chemistry in 2024, is another example.

This breakthrough replaced traditional physics-based systems for predicting how sequences of amino acids would fold into three-dimensional shapes with a 93 million-parameter model, even though it doesn’t account for physical laws. That lack of real-world grounding is not desirable: No one likes the enigmatic nature of these AI systems, and scientists are eager to understand better how they work.

But the sophistication of AI is providing value to scientists, and its use across scientific fields has grown exponentially in recent years.

Context matters

Those are the four dimensions where AI can excel over humans. Accuracy still matters. You wouldn’t want to use an AI that makes graphics look glitchy or targets ads randomly – yet accuracy isn’t the differentiator. The AI doesn’t need superhuman accuracy. It’s enough for AI to be merely good and fast, or adequate and scalable. Increasing scope often comes with an accuracy penalty, because AI can generalize poorly to truly novel tasks. The 4 S’s are sometimes at odds. With a given amount of computing power, you generally have to trade off scale for sophistication.

Even more interestingly, when an AI takes over a human task, the task can change. Sometimes the AI is just doing things differently. Other times, AI starts doing different things. These changes bring new opportunities and new risks.

For example, high-frequency trading isn’t just computers trading stocks faster; it’s a fundamentally different kind of trading that enables entirely new strategies, tactics and associated risks. Likewise, AI has developed more sophisticated strategies for the games of chess and Go. And the scale of AI chatbots has changed the nature of propaganda by allowing artificial voices to overwhelm human speech.

It is this “phase shift,” when changes in degree may transform into changes in kind, where AI’s impacts to society are likely to be most keenly felt. All of this points to the places that AI can have a positive impact. When a system has a bottleneck related to speed, scale, scope or sophistication, or when one of these factors poses a real barrier to being able to accomplish a goal, it makes sense to think about how AI could help.

Equally, when speed, scale, scope and sophistication are not primary barriers, it makes less sense to use AI. This is why AI auto-suggest features for short communications such as text messages can feel so annoying. They offer little speed advantage and no benefit from sophistication, while sacrificing the sincerity of human communication.

Many deployments of customer service chatbots also fail this test, which may explain their unpopularity. Companies invest in them because of their scalability, and yet the bots often become a barrier to support rather than a speedy or sophisticated problem solver.

Where the advantage lies

Keep this in mind when you encounter a new application for AI or consider AI as a replacement for or an augmentation to a human process. Looking for bottlenecks in speed, scale, scope and sophistication provides a framework for understanding where AI provides value, and equally where the unique capabilities of the human species give us an enduring advantage.The Conversation

About the Author:

Bruce Schneier, Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School and Nathan Sanders, Affiliate, Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society, Harvard University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Gold hits record highs as risk aversion dominates the market

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The price of gold surged to a new record on Monday, reaching 3,446 USD per troy ounce, approaching the peaks seen in April. The rise reflects intensified demand for safe-haven assets as investors react to heightened geopolitical tensions and a broadly weaker US dollar.

Geopolitical fears and monetary policy in focus

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, prompting fears of a broader geopolitical fallout in the region. This environment is driving capital into defensive assets, such as gold, as risk appetite continues to wane.

Meanwhile, markets are shifting their attention to this week’s US Federal Reserve meeting, which begins on Tuesday and concludes on Wednesday evening. While the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady, investors will closely watch for any forward guidance on rate cuts, especially following the release of weaker-than-expected US inflation data, which has reinforced speculation of a policy easing as early as September.

Additionally, market participants are awaiting details on President Donald Trump’s next wave of tariffs, which the White House is reportedly preparing to implement in the coming weeks. These trade measures are key in evaluating the broader economic outlook.

The US dollar remains under pressure, which continues to support the bullish momentum in gold.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has completed the fifth wave of growth, reaching a peak at 3,450 USD. A new decline towards 3,400 USD is now expected. If this support is breached, the trend may extend further down to 3,350 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line above zero, exiting the histogram zone and suggesting a potential reversal towards new lows.

On the H1 chart, the pair is building a downward wave structure targeting 3,400 USD. The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the consolidation range at the top of the wave. After reaching 3,400 USD, a correction towards 3,424 USD is anticipated, likely followed by the development of a new downward wave towards 3,375 USD, considered the next local target. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line below 50 and heading towards 20, indicating growing bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains strongly supported by geopolitical instability, a weak dollar, and dovish monetary policy expectations. While the asset is trading near record highs, technical indicators suggest a potential short-term pullback towards 3,400 USD and possibly deeper to 3,375-3,350 USD. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact as long as risk-off sentiment prevails and macro uncertainty lingers.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.