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Archive for Opinions – Page 21

Hurricane forecasters are losing 3 key satellites ahead of peak storm season − a meteorologist explains why it matters

By Chris Vagasky, University of Wisconsin-Madison

About 600 miles off the west coast of Africa, large clusters of thunderstorms begin organizing into tropical storms every hurricane season. They aren’t yet in range of Hurricane Hunter flights, so forecasters at the National Hurricane Center rely on weather satellites to peer down on these storms and beam back information about their location, structure and intensity.

The satellite data helps meteorologists create weather forecasts that keep planes and ships safe and prepare countries for a potential hurricane landfall.

Now, meteorologists are about to lose access to three of those satellites.

On June 25, 2025, the Trump administration issued a service change notice announcing that the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, DMSP, and the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center would terminate data collection, processing and distribution of all DMSP data no later than June 30. The data termination was postponed until July 31 following a request from the head of NASA’s Earth Science Division.

How hurricanes form. NOAA

I am a meteorologist who studies lightning in hurricanes and helps train other meteorologists to monitor and forecast tropical cyclones. Here is how meteorologists use the DMSP data and why they are concerned about it going dark.

Looking inside the clouds

At its most basic, a weather satellite is a high-resolution digital camera in space that takes pictures of clouds in the atmosphere.

These are the satellite images you see on most TV weather broadcasts. They let meteorologists see the location and some details of a hurricane’s structure, but only during daylight hours.

Hurricane Flossie spins off the Mexican coast on July 1, 2025. Images show the top of the hurricane from space as day turns to night. NOAA GOES

Meteorologists can use infrared satellite data, similar to a thermal imaging camera, at all hours of the day to find the coldest cloud-top temperatures, highlighting areas where the highest wind speeds and rainfall rates are found.

But while visible and infrared satellite imagery are valuable tools for hurricane forecasters, they provide only a basic picture of the storm. It’s like a doctor diagnosing a patient after a visual exam and checking their temperature.

Infrared bands show more detail of Hurricane Flossie’s structure on July 1, 2025. NOAA GOES

For more accurate diagnoses, meteorologists rely on the DMSP satellites.

The three satellites orbit Earth 14 times per day with special sensor microwave imager/sounder instruments, or SSMIS. These let meteorologists look inside the clouds, similar to how an MRI in a hospital looks inside a human body. With these instruments, meteorologists can pinpoint the storm’s low-pressure center and identify signs of intensification.

Precisely locating the center of a hurricane improves forecasts of the storm’s future track. This lets meteorologists produce more accurate hurricane watches, warnings and evacuations.

Hurricane track forecasts have improved by up to 75% since 1990. However, forecasting rapid intensification is still difficult, so the ability of DMPS data to identify signs of intensification is important.

About 80% of major hurricanes – those with wind speeds of at least 111 mph (179 kilometers per hour) – rapidly intensify at some point, ramping up the risks they pose to people and property on land. Finding out when storms are about to undergo intensification allows meteorologists to warn the public about these dangerous hurricanes.

Where are the defense satellites going?

NOAA’s Office of Satellite and Product Operations described the reason for turning off the flow of data as a need to mitigate “a significant cybersecurity risk.”

The three satellites have already operated for longer than planned.

The DMSP satellites were launched between 1999 and 2009 and were designed to last for five years. They have now been operating for more than 15 years. The United States Space Force recently concluded that the DMSP satellites would reach the end of their lives between 2023 and 2026, so the data would likely have gone dark soon.

Are there replacements for the DMSP satellites?

Three other satellites in orbit – NOAA-20, NOAA-21 and Suomi NPP – have a microwave instrument known as the advanced technology microwave sounder.

The advanced technology microwave sounder, or ATMS, can provide data similar to the special sensor microwave imager/sounder, or SSMIS, but at a lower resolution. It provides a more washed-out view that is less useful than the SSMIS for pinpointing a storm’s location or estimating its intensity.

Two satellite views of the same storm from different instruments. The SSMIS provides higher resolution of the storm. — Images of Hurricane Erick off the coast of Mexico, viewed from NOAA-20’s ATMS (left) and DMPS SSMIS (right) on June 18 show the difference in resolution and the higher detail provided by the SSMIS data.
U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, via Michael Lowry

The U.S. Space Force began using data from a new defense meteorology satellite, ML-1A, in late April 2025.

ML-1A is a microwave satellite that will help replace some of the DMSP satellites’ capabilities. However, the government hasn’t announced whether the ML-1A data will be available to forecasters, including those at the National Hurricane Center.

Why are satellite replacements last minute?

Satellite programs are planned over many years, even decades, and are very expensive. The current geostationary satellite program launched its first satellite in 2016 with plans to operate until 2038. Development of the planned successor for GOES-R began in 2019.

Similarly, plans for replacing the DMSP satellites have been underway since the early 2000s.

Scientists and engineers in protective white lab clothing use a lift to move a satellite vertical for loading aboard a rocket for launch. — Scientists prepare a GOES-R satellite for packing aboard a rocket in 2016.
NASA/Charles Babir

Delays in developing the satellite instruments and funding cuts caused the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System and Defense Weather Satellite System to be canceled in 2010 and 2012 before any of their satellites could be launched.

The 2026 NOAA budget request includes an increase in funding for the next-generation geostationary satellite program, so it can be restructured to reuse spare parts from existing geostationary satellites. The budget also terminates contracts for ocean color, atmospheric composition and advanced lightning mapper instruments.

A busy season remains

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is forecast to be above average, with six to 10 hurricanes. The most active part of the season runs from the middle of August to the middle of October, after the DMSP satellite data is set to be turned off.

Hurricane forecasters will continue to use all available tools, including satellite, radar, weather balloon and dropsonde data, to monitor the tropics and issue hurricane forecasts. But the loss of satellite data, along with other cuts to data, funding and staffing, could ultimately put more lives at risk.

About the Author:

Chris Vagasky, Meteorologist and Research Program Manager, University of Wisconsin-Madison

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

03 Jul

AI is advancing even faster than sci-fi visionaries like Neal Stephenson imagined

By Rizwan Virk, Arizona State University

Every time I read about another advance in AI technology, I feel like another figment of science fiction moves closer to reality.

Lately, I’ve been noticing eerie parallels to Neal Stephenson’s 1995 novel “The Diamond Age: Or, A Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer.”

“The Diamond Age” depicted a post-cyberpunk sectarian future, in which society is fragmented into tribes, called phyles. In this future world, sophisticated nanotechnology is ubiquitous, and a new type of AI is introduced.

Though inspired by MIT nanotech pioneer Eric Drexler and Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman, the advanced nanotechnology depicted in the novel still remains out of reach. However, the AI that’s portrayed, particularly a teaching device called the Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer, isn’t only right in front of us; it also raises serious issues about the role of AI in labor, learning and human behavior.

In Stephenson’s novel, the Primer looks like a hardcover book, but each of its “pages” is really a screen display that can show animations and text, and it responds to its user in real time via AI. The book also has an audio component, which voices the characters and narrates stories being told by the device.

It was originally created for the young daughter of an aristocrat, but it accidentally falls into the hands of a girl named Nell who’s living on the streets of a futuristic Shanghai. The Primer provides Nell personalized emotional, social and intellectual support during her journey to adulthood, serving alternatively as an AI companion, a storyteller, a teacher and a surrogate parent.

The AI is able to weave fairy tales that help a younger Nell cope with past traumas, such as her abusive home and life on the streets. It educates her on everything from math to cryptography to martial arts. In a techno-futuristic homage to George Bernard Shaw’s 1913 play “Pygmalion,” the Primer goes so far as to teach Nell the proper social etiquette to be able to blend into neo-Victorian society, one of the prominent tribes in Stephenson’s balkanized world.

No need for ‘ractors’

Three recent developments in AI – in video games, wearable technology and education – reveal that building something like the Primer should no longer be considered the purview of science fiction.

In May 2025, the hit video game “Fortnite” introduced an AI version of Darth Vader, who speaks with the voice of the late James Earl Jones.

While it was popular among fans of the game, the Screen Actors Guild lodged a labor complaint with Epic Games, the creator of “Fortnite.” Even though Epic had received permission from the late actor’s estate, the Screen Actors Guild pointed out that actors could have been hired to voice the character, and the company – in refusing to alert the union and negotiate terms – violated existing labor agreements.

In “The Diamond Age,” while the Primer uses AI to generate the fairy tales that train Nell, for the voices of these archetypal characters, Stephenson concocted a low-tech solution: The characters are played by a network of what he termed “ractors” – real actors working in a studio who are contracted to perform and interact in real time with users.

The Darth Vader “Fortnite” character shows that a Primer built today wouldn’t need to use actors at all. It could rely almost entirely on AI voice generation and have real-time conversations, showing that today’s technology already exceeds Stephenson’s normally far-sighted vision.

Recording and guiding in real time

Synthesizing James Earl Jones’ voice in “Fortnite” wasn’t the only recent AI development heralding the arrival of Primer-like technology.

I recently witnessed a demonstration of wearable AI that records all of the wearer’s conversations. Their words are then sent to a server so they can be analyzed by AI, providing both summaries and suggestions to the user about future behavior.

Several startups are making these “always on” AI wearables. In an April 29, 2025, essay titled “I Recorded Everything I Said for Three Months. AI Has Replaced My Memory,” Wall Street Journal technology columnist Joanna Stern describes the experience of using this technology. She concedes that the assistants created useful summaries of her conversations and meetings, along with helpful to-do lists. However, they also recalled “every dumb, private and cringeworthy thing that came out of my mouth.”

AI wearable devices that continuously record the conversations of their users have recently hit the market.

These devices also create privacy issues. The people whom the user interacts with don’t always know they are being recorded, even as their words are also sent to a server for the AI to process them. To Stern, the technology’s potential for mass surveillance becomes readily apparent, presenting a “slightly terrifying glimpse of the future.”

Relying on AI engines such as ChatGPT, Claude and Google’s Gemini, the wearables work only with words, not images. Behavioral suggestions occur only after the fact. However, a key function of the Primer – coaching users in real time in the middle of any situation or social interaction – is the next logical step as the technology advances.

Education or social engineering?

In “The Diamond Age,” the Primer doesn’t simply weave interactive fairy tales for Nell. It also assumes the responsibility of educating her on everything from her ABCs when younger to the intricacies of cryptography and politics as she gets older.

It’s no secret that AI tools, such as ChatGPT, are now being widely used by both teachers and students.

Several recent studies have shown that AI may be more effective than humans at teaching computer science. One survey found that 85% of students said ChatGPT was more effective than a human tutor. And at least one college, Morehouse College in Atlanta, is introducing an AI teaching assistant for professors.

There are certainly advantages to AI tutors: Tutoring and college tuition can be exorbitantly expensive, and the technology can offer better access to education to people of all income levels.

Pulling together these latest AI advances – interactive avatars, behavioral guides, tutors – it’s easy to envision how an AI device like the Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer could be created in the near future. A young person might have a personalized AI character that accompanies them at all times. It can teach them about the world and offer up suggestions for how to act in certain situations. The AI could be tailored to a child’s personality, concocting stories that include AI versions of their favorite TV and movie characters.

But “The Diamond Age” offers a warning, too.

Toward the end of the novel, a version of the Primer is handed out to hundreds of thousands of young Chinese girls who, like Nell, didn’t have access to education or mentors. This leads to the education of the masses. But it also opens the door to large-scale social engineering, creating an army of Primer-raised martial arts experts, whom the AI then directs to act on behalf of “Princess Nell,” Nell’s fairy tale name.

It’s easy to see how this sort of large-scale social engineering could be used to target certain ideologies, crush dissent or build loyalty to a particular regime. The AI’s behavior could also be subject to the whims of the companies or individuals that created it. A ubiquitous, always-on, friendly AI could become the ultimate monitoring and reporting device. Think of a kinder, gentler face for Big Brother that people have trusted since childhood.

While large-scale deployment of a Primer-like AI could certainly make young people smarter and more efficient, it could also hamper one of the most important parts of education: teaching people to think for themselves.

About the Author:

Rizwan Virk, Faculty Associate, PhD Candidate in Human and Social Dimensions of Science and Technology, Arizona State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

03 Jul

The hidden cost of convenience: How your data pulls in hundreds of billions of dollars for app and social media companies

By Kassem Fawaz, University of Wisconsin-Madison and Jack West, University of Wisconsin-Madison

You wake up in the morning and, first thing, you open your weather app. You close that pesky ad that opens first and check the forecast. You like your weather app, which shows hourly weather forecasts for your location. And the app is free!

But do you know why it’s free? Look at the app’s privacy settings. You help keep it free by allowing it to collect your information, including:

What devices you use and their IP and Media Access Control addresses.
Information you provide when signing up, such as your name, email address and home address.
App settings, such as whether you choose Celsius or Fahrenheit.
Your interactions with the app, including what content you view and what ads you click.
Inferences based on your interactions with the app.
Your location at a given time, including, depending on your settings, continuous tracking.
What websites or apps that you interact with after you use the weather app.
Information you give to ad vendors.
Information gleaned by analytics vendors that analyze and optimize the app.

This type of data collection is standard fare. The app company can use this to customize ads and content. The more customized and personalized an ad is, the more money it generates for the app owner. The owner might also sell your data to other companies.

You might also check a social media account like Instagram. The subtle price that you pay is, again, your data. Many “free” mobile apps gather information about you as you interact with them.

As an associate professor of electrical and computer engineering and a doctoral student in computer science, we follow the ways software collects information about people. Your data allows companies to learn about your habits and exploit them.

It’s no secret that social media and mobile applications collect information about you. Meta’s business model depends on it. The company, which operates Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, is worth US$1.48 trillion. Just under 98% of its profits come from advertising, which leverages user data from more than 7 billion monthly users.

What your data is worth

Before mobile phones gained apps and social media became ubiquitous, companies conducted large-scale demographic surveys to assess how well a product performed and to get information about the best places to sell it. They used the information to create coarsely targeted ads that they placed on billboards, print ads and TV spots.

Mobile apps and social media platforms now let companies gather much more fine-grained information about people at a lower cost. Through apps and social media, people willingly trade personal information for convenience. In 2007 – a year after the introduction of targeted ads – Facebook made over $153 million, triple the previous year’s revenue. In the past 17 years, that number has increased by more than 1,000 times.

Five ways to leave your data

App and social media companies collect your data in many ways. Meta is a representative case. The company’s privacy policy highlights five ways it gathers your data:

First, it collects the profile information you fill in. Second, it collects the actions you take on its social media platforms. Third, it collects the people you follow and friend. Fourth, it keeps track of each phone, tablet and computer you use to access its platforms. And fifth, it collects information about how you interact with apps that corporate partners connect to its platforms. Many apps and social media platforms follow similar privacy practices.

Your data and activity

When you create an account on an app or social media platform, you provide the company that owns it with information like your age, birth date, identified sex, location and workplace. In the early years of Facebook, selling profile information to advertisers was that company’s main source of revenue. This information is valuable because it allows advertisers to target specific demographics like age, identified gender and location.

And once you start using an app or social media platform, the company behind it can collect data about how you use the app or social media. Social media keeps you engaged as you interact with other people’s posts by liking, commenting or sharing them. Meanwhile, the social media company gains information about what content you view and how you communicate with other people.

Advertisers can find out how much time you spent reading a Facebook post or that you spent a few more seconds on a particular TikTok video. This activity information tells advertisers about your interests. Modern algorithms can quickly pick up subtleties and automatically change the content to engage you in a sponsored post, a targeted advertisement or general content.

Your devices and applications

Companies can also note what devices, including mobile phones, tablets and computers, you use to access their apps and social media platforms. This shows advertisers your brand loyalty, how old your devices are and how much they’re worth.

Because mobile devices travel with you, they have access to information about where you’re going, what you’re doing and who you’re near. In a lawsuit against Kochava Inc., the Federal Trade Commission called out the company for selling customer geolocation data in August 2022, shortly after Roe v Wade was overruled. The company’s customers, including people who had abortions after the ruling was overturned, often didn’t know that data tracking their movements was being collected, according to the commission. The FTC alleged that the data could be used to identify households.

Kochava has denied the FTC’s allegations.

Information that apps can gain from your mobile devices includes anything you have given an app permission to have, such as your location, who you have in your contact list or photos in your gallery.

If you give an app permission to see where you are while the app is running, for instance, the platform can access your location anytime the app is running. Providing access to contacts may provide an app with the phone numbers, names and emails of all the people that you know.

Cross-application data collection

Companies can also gain information about what you do across different apps by acquiring information collected by other apps and platforms.

Android screenshot – white and green text on a black background — The settings on an Android phone show that Meta uses information it collects about you to target ads it shows you in its apps – and also in other apps and on other platforms – by default.
Jack West, CC BY-ND

This is common with social media companies. This allows companies to, for example, show you ads based on what you like or recently looked at on other apps. If you’ve searched for something on Amazon and then noticed an ad for it on Instagram, it’s probably because Amazon shared that information with Instagram.

This combined data collection has made targeted advertising so accurate that people have reported that they feel like their devices are listening to them.

Companies, including Google, Meta, X, TikTok and Snapchat, can build detailed user profiles based on collected information from all the apps and social media platforms you use. They use the profiles to show you ads and posts that match your interests to keep you engaged. They also sell the profile information to advertisers.

Meanwhile, researchers have found that Meta and Yandex, a Russian search engine, have overcome controls in mobile operating system software that ordinarily keep people’s web-browsing data anonymous. Each company puts code on its webpages that used local IPs to pass a person’s browsing history, which is supposed to remain private, to mobile apps installed on that person’s phone, de-anonymizing the data. Yandex has been conducting this tracking since 2017, while Meta began in September 2024, according to the researchers.

What you can do about it

If you use apps that collect your data in some way, including those that give you directions, track your workouts or help you contact someone, or if you use social media platforms, your privacy is at risk.

Aside from entirely abandoning modern technology, there are several steps you can take to limit access – at least in part – to your private information.

Read the privacy policy of each app or social media platform you use. Although privacy policy documents can be long, tedious and sometimes hard to read, they explain how social media platforms collect, process, store and share your data.

Check a policy by making sure it can answer three questions: what data does the app collect, how does it collect the data, and what is the data used for. If you can’t answer all three questions by reading the policy, or if any of the answers don’t sit well with you, consider skipping the app until there’s a change in its data practices.

Remove unnecessary permissions from mobile apps to limit the amount of information that applications can gather from you.

Be aware of the privacy settings that might be offered by the apps or social media platforms you use, including any setting that allows your personal data to affect your experience or shares information about you with other users or applications.

These privacy settings can give you some control. We recommend that you disable “off-app activity” and “personalization” settings. “Off-app activity” allows an app to record which other apps are installed on your phone and what you do on them. Personalization settings allow an app to use your data to tailor what it shows you, including advertisements.

Review and update these settings regularly because permissions sometimes change when apps or your phone update. App updates may also add new features that can collect your data. Phone updates may also give apps new ways to collect your data or add new ways to preserve your privacy.

Use private browser windows or reputable virtual private networks software, commonly referred to as VPNs, when using apps that connect to the internet and social media platforms. Private browsers don’t store any account information, which limits the information that can be collected. VPNs change the IP address of your machine so that apps and platforms can’t discover your location.

Finally, ask yourself whether you really need every app that’s on your phone. And when using social media, consider how much information you want to reveal about yourself in liking and commenting on posts, sharing updates about your life, revealing locations you visited and following celebrities you like.

This article is part of a series on data privacy that explores who collects your data, what and how they collect, who sells and buys your data, what they all do with it, and what you can do about it.

Kassem Fawaz, Associate Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison and Jack West, PhD Student in Computer Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

02 Jul

Copper: The Technical Breakout Hiding in Plain Sight

Source: John Newell (7/1/25)

John Newell of John Newell & Associates reviews the copper market and shares some copper stocks he believes are worth keeping an eye on.

For years, copper has quietly built a case for being one of the most strategically important — and structurally underappreciated — commodities in the global economy.

Today, that case is no longer just about long-term fundamentals.

Technically, copper may be on the verge of a historic breakout, with the gold-to-copper ratio flashing one of the clearest signals in decades.

The Coming Copper Supercycle

The world is entering a period of compounding copper demand across sectors that didn’t even exist a generation ago. Clean energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and data center expansion are all rapidly growing copper consumers. By some estimates, copper demand could double by 2035, from ~25 million tonnes to nearly 50 Mt.

This surge is colliding with mounting supply constraints. Ore grades have declined ~40% since 1991, permitting timelines now average more than 15 years, and only a handful of major discoveries have been made in the last decade. Mine development delays, social license challenges, and geopolitical instability in key regions are adding even more friction.

According to the International Energy Agency, even in its most optimistic scenario, a copper supply deficit of at least 1.6 million tonnes will persist by 2035, and under more aggressive climate targets, this deficit could exceed 10 million tonnes annually. With energy transition goals looming, this shortfall threatens to delay or derail critical electrification projects worldwide.

Meanwhile, new demand centers are emerging. Both India and Vietnam are poised to become major copper consumers, while China continues to dominate refining capacity with a 45% global share. Supply, however, remains concentrated in jurisdictions such as Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo, increasing geopolitical and logistical risk.

The Gold-to-Copper Ratio: A Hidden Signal

While most headlines focus on copper supply and demand, the gold-to-copper ratio may offer the most striking indicator of what’s coming next.

Historically, this ratio oscillates around a long-term mean, but today, it’s signaling copper is historically cheap relative to gold.

At $3,300 gold, the ratio currently implies copper is undervalued at ~$5.00 per lb historically
At $3,300 gold, the ratio implies copper should be trading at approximately $8.00/lb to revert to the mean
A return to the lower bound of historical undervaluation could imply copper over $15/lb

Technically, the ratio has reached levels not seen since the early 2000s, just before copper launched into a multi-year bull market

This isn’t just a valuation story, it’s a sentiment shift. When gold leads, copper often follows. And gold’s 2024 breakout may be the prelude to a similar move in copper.

Fractal Patterns and Price Projection

Copper’s price chart is showing a clear fractal pattern resembling its 2003–2007 breakout period. Key technical levels have already been tested and held, and copper appears to be forming a bullish base with higher lows.

The breakout above $5.00/lb could confirm a long-term trend reversal.

Using Fibonacci extensions and historical symmetry:

A 2x move from the current base projects copper to ~$8.00–$9.00/lb
Longer-term targets range up to $12.00–$15.00/lb, particularly if inflation and energy transition tailwinds persist

Fundamental Tailwinds Align

Beyond charts and ratios, the copper bull thesis is grounded in urgent global realities:

Electrification & Renewables: EVs use 3–4x more copper than internal combustion engines. Offshore wind, solar farms, and smart grid infrastructure require unprecedented copper input.

AI and Data Centers: AI infrastructure and high-powered computing require heavy-duty copper wiring and cooling systems. This sector alone could consume 1–2% of global copper demand by 2030.

Falling Ore Grades: As copper grades decline globally, more energy and capital are needed to produce each tonne, raising costs and limiting supply elasticity.

Lack of Discoveries: less than 20 new copper deposits have been discovered in the last decade, compared to over 200 in the prior 23 years.

Capital Intensity and Timelines: New mine development now averages 17+ years, making it nearly impossible to respond quickly to demand shocks.

Recycling Limitations: While helpful, recycling cannot offset primary demand growth in the next two decades.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For investors, the opportunity lies in positioning before the re-rate. Major mining companies are already investing in juniors, particularly in stable jurisdictions like British Columbia, Arizona, Ontario, and Australia.

As copper breaks out technically, capital will chase leverage, and junior explorers offer the highest torque to rising copper prices.

This isn’t about chasing hype. It’s about reading the signals that the market is quietly flashing:

Historic undervaluation versus gold
Fractal price patterns signaling acceleration
Structural supply deficits meeting exponential demand
Geopolitical risks realigning the global copper map

New Generation Copper Developers Are Stepping Up

Amid mounting supply pressures and accelerating global demand, a new wave of copper exploration and development companies is emerging to meet the challenge. These juniors are advancing well-positioned projects with strategic advantages, from shorter development timelines to favorable jurisdictions, that could help close the widening copper gap.

As majors increasingly turn to partnerships and acquisitions to secure future supply, these agile explorers and developers are becoming vital players in the next chapter of copper’s story.

McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX:TSX; MUX:NYSE ) is advancing the massive Los Azules copper project in Argentina, one of the largest undeveloped copper projects in the world.

With over 10 billion pounds of contained copper, Los Azules represents a cornerstone asset with tremendous long-term leverage to rising copper prices.

Recent technical work and a defined development plan are moving the project toward pre-feasibility.

The company has also announced progress on infrastructure, permitting, and funding strategy, positioning itself as a potential takeover target or future producer as the copper cycle matures.

NexMetals Mining Corp. (NEXM:TSX.V) is quietly drilling into one of Botswana’s past-producing copper-nickel mines, and the story is picking up speed.

The Selkirk Mine already has a known copper-nickel-PGE footprint, and the company has completed 2,050 meters of new drilling with assays expected shortly.

A second drill rig is now turning, and NexMetals is also resampling historical holes and running metallurgical tests to define recovery parameters.

All this work is feeding into an updated mineral resource estimate, as the company positions Selkirk for a potential copper-Ni-PGE revival at a time when global supply remains tight.

It’s early days, but with the fundamentals behind copper and the right rocks in the right address, this is a name to keep an eye on.

Metallic Minerals Corp. (MMG:TSX.V; MMNGF:OTCQB) is shaping up as a serious copper-silver-gold exploration story, backed by some of the smartest money in the business.

With Newmont (formerly Newcrest) holding a 9.5% stake and Eric Sprott at 12.5%, the company’s flagship La Plata Project in southwest Colorado is drawing comparisons to world-class porphyry systems like Cadia.

The 2023 resource at the Allard deposit shows 1.2 billion lbs of copper and 17.6 million oz of silver, with the next update expected to include gold and PGEs.

What stands out is the scale of the alteration system, over 25 km² with multiple untested targets, including Ridgeway-style zones that could host much higher grades.

With permits in place and Newmont technical input in the field, 2025 could be a breakout year.

Final Thoughts

Copper is no longer just a metal. It’s the backbone of electrification, data, mobility, and decarbonization. The market is beginning to wake up to this. But the technical charts suggest the real move hasn’t even started.

For investors who understand both the fundamental and technical case, copper could represent the most asymmetric opportunity of the next decade.

Important Disclosures:

Metallic Minerals Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
John Newell: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: [None]. My company has a financial relationship with [None]. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: [None]. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Metals Opinions

02 Jul

Why energy markets fluctuate during an international crisis

By Skip York, Rice University

Global energy markets, such as those for oil, gas and coal, tend to be sensitive to a wide range of world events – especially when there is some sort of crisis. Having worked in the energy industry for over 30 years, I’ve seen how war, political instability, pandemics and economic sanctions can significantly disrupt energy markets and impede them from functioning efficiently.

A look at the basics

First, consider the economic fundamentals of supply and demand. The risk most people imagine in the current crisis between Israel, the U.S. and Iran is that Iran, which is itself a major oil-producing country, might suddenly expand the conflict by threatening the ability of neighboring countries to supply oil to the world.

Oil wells, refineries, pipelines and shipping lanes are the backbone of energy markets. They can be vulnerable during a crisis: Whether there is deliberate sabotage or collateral damage from military action, energy infrastructure often takes a hit.

For instance, after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990, Iraqi forces placed explosive charges on Kuwaiti oil wells and began detonating them in January 1991. It took months for all the resulting fires to be put out, and millions of barrels of oil and hundreds of millions of cubic meters of natural gas were released into the environment – rather than being sold and used productively somewhere around the world.

Scenes of Kuwaiti life during and after the Gulf War of 1990 and 1991 include images of oil wells burning as a result of Iraqi sabotage.

Logistics can mess markets up too. For instance, closing critical maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal can cause transportation delays.

Whether supply is lost from decreased production or blocked transportation routes, the effect is less oil available to the market, which not only causes prices to rise in general, but it also makes them more volatile – tending to change more frequently and by larger amounts.

On the flip side, demand can also shift radically. During the 1990-1991 Gulf War, demand rose: U.S. forces alone used more than 2 billion gallons of fuel, according to an Army analysis. By contrast, during the COVID-19 pandemic, industries shut down, travel came to a halt and energy demand plummeted.

When crisis looms, countries and companies often start stockpiling oil and other raw materials rather than buying only what they need right now. That creates even more imbalance, resulting in price volatility that leaves everyone, both consumers and producers, with a headache.

Regional considerations

In addition to uncertainties around market fundamentals, it’s important to note that many of the world’s energy reserves are located in regions that have not been models of stability. In the Middle East, wars, revolutions and diplomatic disputes there can raise concerns about supply, demand or both.

Those worries send shock waves through the world’s energy markets. It’s like walking on a tightrope: One wrong move – or even the perception of a misstep – can make the market wobble.

Governments’ economic sanctions, such as those restricting trade with Iran, Russia or Venezuela, can distort production and investment decisions and disrupt trade flows. Sometimes markets react even before sanctions are officially in place: Just the rumor of a possible embargo can cause prices to spike as buyers scramble to secure resources.

In 2008, for example, India and Vietnam imposed rice export bans, and rumors of additional restrictions fueled panic buying and nearly doubled prices in months.

In those scrambles, the role of investor speculation enters the picture. Energy commodities, such as oil and gas, aren’t just physical resources; they’re also traded as financial assets like stocks and bonds. During uncertain times, traders don’t wait around for actual changes in supply and demand. They react to news and forecasts, sometimes in large groups, which can shift the market just with the actions that result from their fears or hopes.

The events on June 22, 2025, are a good example of how this dynamic works. The Iranian parliament passed a resolution authorizing the country’s Supreme Council to close the Strait of Hormuz. Immediately, oil prices started rising, even though the strait was still open, with oil tankers steaming through unimpeded.

The next day, Iran launched a missile strike on Qatar, but coordinated in advance with Qatari officials to minimize damage and casualties. Traders and analysts perceived the action as a de-escalatory signal and anticipated that the Supreme Council was not going to close the strait. So prices started to fall.

It was a price roller coaster, fueled by speculation rather than reality. And computer algorithms and artificial intelligence, which assist in making automated trades, only add to the chaos of price changes.

Shipping activity in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz decreased after Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

A broader look

International crises can also cause wider changes in countries’ economies – or the global economy as a whole – which in turn affect the energy market.

If a crisis sparks a recession, rising inflation or high unemployment, those tend to cause people and businesses to use less energy. When the underlying situation stabilizes, recovery efforts can mean energy consumption resumes. But it’s like a pendulum swinging back and forth, with energy markets caught in the middle.

Renewable energy is not immune to international crisis and chaos. The supply is less affected by market forces: The amount of available sunlight and wind isn’t tied to geopolitical relations. But overall economic conditions still affect demand, and a crisis can disrupt the supply chains for the equipment needed to harness renewable energy, like solar panels and wind turbines.

It’s no wonder energy markets are so jittery during international crises. A mix of imbalances between supply and demand, vulnerable infrastructure, political tensions, corporate worries and speculative trading all weave together into a complex web of volatility.

For policymakers, investors and consumers, understanding these dynamics is key to navigating the ups and downs of energy markets in a crisis-prone world. The solutions aren’t simple, but being informed is the first step toward stability.

About the Author:

Skip York, Nonresident Fellow in Energy and Global Oil, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

01 Jul

The Golden Bull Rests

Source: Michael Ballanger (6/30/25)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of the market and reviews a financing by one of his favorite copper stocks.

With stocks charging to record highs this week, and with the personal consumption expenditures showing a big drop-off in spending (-0.4% vs. +0.3% est.), the need for hedging one’s bets with a new allocation of gold or gold miners has disappeared. At the least, that was what the CNBC spin doctors were using as the “new narrative” for gold.

The gold miners, as represented by the HUI, are now off 8.1% from the high registered on June 5, but judging from some of the comments from the Twitterverse and YouTube podcasts, one might presume that gold had crashed.

The reality for old goats like me is that gold has been tracing out a top since the moment U.S. President Donald Trump did that “TACO” move (“Trump Aways Chickens Out”) and decided to pause the tariffs that threatened to derail the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status while imploding the global bond markets. Fearing an inflationary surge brought on by tariffs, investors the world over spent March and most of April piling into gold in order to protect portfolios from a fate worse than an evening with Mark Carney.

During that period, the relative strength indices for gold from three different time lines — daily, weekly, and monthly — all moved into overbought territory simultaneously, creating one of the most stretched ticker tapes in the past decade.

As one can see from the graphic pinned below, the RSI for daily and weekly readings is now back to neutral for the weekly, while the daily RSI is actually approaching oversold status. Unfortunately, the monthly RSI is still well-ensconced in the overbought domain, which caps the upside potential but does not necessarily imply that we have entered a prolonged bear market. What it does imply is that the gold market is markedly less prone to a sudden downside shock, which a move below $3,000 would certainly create.

Make no mistake; I was lulled into a false sense of security a few weeks ago when the Israelis decided to take out the Irani nuclear sites coercing me to take a shot at some GLD:US calls which promptly reversed forcing me to the sidelines with a 25% haircut and an ample mouthful of crow-filled embarrassment.

However, I came to my senses and reverted back to my bearish stance, which I had been carrying until the Israelis sent me into panic mode. As I said to subscribers this week, “If the recent skirmish between Israel and Iran and then the American bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities failed to light a fuse under gold and silver, then I have to expect that the next move is DOWN. . .”

The high of two weeks ago on the Sunday night session after the Americans sent a number of “bunker busters” into the Iranian mountains was a fleeting moment, as the market is down $180/ounce since then. From an macroeconomic viewpoint, the U.S. appears to be slowing and with that the Q1 narrative of resurging inflation and escalating debt problems being replaced with the Q2 narrative of labor market stability and corporate earnings resiliency followed by the expected Q3 narrative of accelerating growth fueled by lower interest rates and relaxed regulatory environment under the Trump administration.

I strongly resist the expected Q3 narrative because it reeks of the “this time is different” theme that is consistent with every other top since 1980. It is never “different this time” as greed is always followed by fear brought on by the market’s corrective behavior. The momentum-chasing behavior of those that were selling the U.S. to buy Europe and Japan was mirrored by the “sell treasuries and buy gold and silver” strategy that was a reaction to the Trump tariffs but once Trump observed how his actions led by his tweets and verbal impetuousness began to crater the U.S. bond market and the currency, the ensuing about-face marked the top in gold and the bottom in stocks. That event is “transitory” (to coin a phrase), and I believe that fiscal and foreign policy will find itself headlocked by the funding needs of the U.S. Treasury.

Trump will need to go “hat-in-hand” to the international community in order to facilitate the rollover of some $9 trillion in treasury bills that will be coming due in 2025 alone. Just as the bond market forced him to abandon his “America First” agenda, his softened approach has the stock junkies all clamoring behind his pro-growth shift and fleeing the safety of the gold and silver markets which is going to come to an abrupt end very shortly.

Near term, I expect a knee-jerk “flush” of the precious metals in the next two weeks that might take gold back under $3k and silver back under $30 just to scare the living feces out of all the late-comers that piled onto the gold trade in March-April. That, as always, will set up the perfect storm for a lasting bottom in gold that will hopefully be led by silver and the intermediate and junior developers.

After making a little money on the gold hedges in May and losing a little on the long side in early June, I am flat all leveraged gold trades, looking to establish a sizable long position in January calls between now and the middle of July. Stay tuned. The biggest phase of the golden bull is ahead of us, and with the good graces of Lady Luck and U.S. dollar weakness, silver will lead, and the junior explorers and developers will soar.

COT Report

The bullion banks took advantage of the downside action for the week ended Tuesday, June 24, by covering a few of their moderately large net short position.

At 230,560 net shorts, they have reduced exposure markedly from the 325,000 level last seen in May. It is not so much the actual number but more the trend of their activity that I watch. In fact, they are almost always short the gold futures market, and the only time I ever saw them post a net long position was in early December of 2015 at the absolute bottom of the 2011-2015 bear market, around $1,045 per ounce.

I see a Commercial net short position under 200,000 contracts by mid-July, which is bullish.

Stocks

The CNN Fear-Greed Index is sitting at a moderately bearish 65, which places it in the position of <GREED> but nowhere near the extremes of last February when it was solidly in the 85-90 level and in the position of <EXTREME GREED>. Sentiment is not yet in the “LaLaLand” phase as measured by this indicator, but based upon the volume of call buying, which took out records this week, the retail investor is maniacally consumed by the current market action.

The grey-haired professional money gang are waving their fingers and muttering “Tsk-Tsk,” pointing to Warren Buffett’s $300 billion cash position as justification for being “underinvested” in this rally, which is the strongest and most violent equity market rebound in the history of global stock exchanges. In other words, the kiddies that are normally the “suckers at the poker table” are now raking in their obscene profits leaving the older more conservative crowd in their dust.

I am modestly hedged via volatility positions and one “bleeding-from-the-eye-sockets” short via the inverse QQQ ETF (SQQ:US), which I have stubbornly refused to jettison, but only because I had a similar problem last July when I was seriously submerged on a position in the UVIX:US before the early-August “Japan carry-trade” crash rescued me, taking a 30% loss to a 405 win in under two weeks. That is what I expect to transpire in the latter part of July and lasting right through to mid-October, so the $90 million question is “When do I add?” to both volatility and to the SQQQ:US in order to capture the next correction.

Stay tuned.

Copper

After the absurdity of the one-week crash that ended on April 7, with the “Liberation Day” lows in stocks, gold, copper, and nearly everything else that lives and breathes off the Trump tweets, copper has been on a tear to the upside, closing above $5.00/lb, for the first time since late March.

This week, the red metal reclaimed that level on the heels of a report out of the LME that has copper inventories at their lowest level in decades, with a similar condition affecting the Shanghai futures exchange. Also suffering is the mighty COMEX, where everything copper-related is being hoarded as the looming shortages appear not only on the horizon but just ahead of the grill of one’s car.

The world will soon realize that leftist and “woke” policies prohibiting the exploitation of the planet’s mineral wealth ultimately rise up to “bite you in the butt” making the construction of new copper mines prohibitively expensive with prices under US$15,000 m/t (US$6.80/lb.). Those near-sighted policies of the past decade or so have resulted in no new mine supply coming on stream so when combined with the depletion from exhausted, mined-out sources in Chile and Peru and Canada, there is a looming and very real shortage about to materialize that is going to send prices spiraling northward for the balance of the decade.

The folks over at Crux Investor have published a superb article on copper entitled: “How Copper Supply Deficits Are Reshaping the Critical Minerals Landscape,” and I urge all readers to take some time to study it at this link.

I see new highs on the immediate horizon for copper and a robust second half of 2025 for the copper developers, with particular attention to those with new discoveries. Of note this week was the $12 million LIFE financing announced by one of my absolute favorites, Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB) that has won the affections of a number of the institutional investors including a US$1.8 billion Asian mining fund whose lead order of $5 million was a huge testimonial to the quality of both management and their two exciting projects in Chile, Caballos and Buen Retiro. The deal is expected to close next week, oversubscribed and trading at a premium to the issue price on excellent volume.

It remains my largest holding and top pick for 2025-2026.

Next week is expected to be an uneventful one with the July 4 holiday in the U.S. falling on Friday. I suspect that most of the trading desks will be manned by juniors for most of the week since the end-of-quarter falls on a Monday.

The first two weeks of July are expected to be the strongest of the month with the remainder of the summer typically a challenge. \

We shall see. . .

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: [All]. My company has a financial relationship with [None]. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: [None.] I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involve

Metals Opinions

29 Jun

US Dollar Index Speculators drop their bets to lowest level since 2021

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (13,166 contracts) with the EuroFX (9,582 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (4,043 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (1,400 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,462 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-6,962 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,716 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-3,172 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,066 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-888 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-377 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculators drop their bets to lowest level since 2021

The U.S. dollar index speculator position dropped this week for a second consecutive week and is now at the lowest level in the past 225 weeks. This is the lowest standing dating back to March 9th of 2021 when the speculator positions were negative by over -8,000 contracts.

The U.S. dollar index speculator position has fallen by -7,436 contracts in the last two weeks and by over -22,000 contracts in the last 15 weeks, going from +16,835 contracts on March 11th to -6,034 contracts this week.

Despite geopolitical turmoil over the last few weeks, the dollar index has not experienced safe haven flows and is now trading under the 98.00 exchange rate. This is the lowest level since 2022 when the index was on the rise up and culminated later that year at a high of nearly 115.00 in September 2022. The dollar index is now down about 12% since the beginning of the year after starting the year near the 110.00 exchange rate.

Quick Roundup:

Other Currencies:
– Non-US dollar contracts are improving week to week and month to month.
– Negative contracts at this point are the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the US dollar index and Bitcoin.

Euro:
– Speculator positions have risen for five consecutive weeks and by over 36,000 contracts over that period.
– The Euro speculator position is now back over +100,000 contracts for the second consecutive week.
– The Euro positions are now at their highest level since January of 2024.

Japanese Yen:
– Speculator bets have cooled off somewhat after hitting record high in the last few months.
– The currency has been consolidating over the last two months, however it is up about 10% since beginning of the year.

Swiss Franc:
– Continues to have a negative large speculator position but has been steadily improving since the beginning of the year.
– It has halved its negative position to the current level of -20,000 contracts.
– Swiss franc has benefited from safe haven flows, rising approximately 15% against the U.S. dollar since January

Australian Dollar:
– The AUD exchange rate is up about 5% against the U.S. dollar in 2025.
– However, the speculator position is the most bearish out of all the major currencies as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rate in May meeting.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (87 percent) and the Brazilian Real (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (71 percent), New Zealand Dollar (68 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) and Bitcoin (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.6 percent)
EuroFX (71.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (67.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (52.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (87.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (86.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (58.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (60.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (64.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (24.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (67.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (63.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (80.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (86.5 percent)
Bitcoin (4.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.4 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (10 percent), the Swiss Franc (4 percent) and the British Pound (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-16 percent), the US Dollar Index (-12 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-11.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (10.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-14.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (29.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-5.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	40.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.9	18.8	11.4
– Net Position:	-6,034	6,748	-714
– Gross Longs:	13,283	12,617	2,840
– Gross Shorts:	19,317	5,869	3,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.3	-3.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 111,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	54.7	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	76.3	5.5
– Net Position:	111,135	-164,301	53,166
– Gross Longs:	223,791	417,363	94,870
– Gross Shorts:	112,656	581,664	41,704
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	25.2	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-10.2	7.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	24.0	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	48.5	14.6
– Net Position:	34,395	-44,035	9,640
– Gross Longs:	99,848	43,166	35,906
– Gross Shorts:	65,453	87,201	26,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	45.6	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-5.0	10.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 132,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.7	29.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	76.2	8.0
– Net Position:	132,277	-147,710	15,433
– Gross Longs:	178,403	92,034	40,462
– Gross Shorts:	46,126	239,744	25,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	13.7	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	9.4	6.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	65.8	22.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	35.9	22.0
– Net Position:	-20,944	20,768	176
– Gross Longs:	8,184	45,702	15,449
– Gross Shorts:	29,128	24,934	15,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	33.4	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-3.6	0.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	67.5	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	42.4	12.3
– Net Position:	-53,167	50,430	2,737
– Gross Longs:	25,267	135,776	27,452
– Gross Shorts:	78,434	85,346	24,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	35.0	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-17.6	35.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -72,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	64.9	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.4	18.2	13.7
– Net Position:	-72,562	70,475	2,087
– Gross Longs:	23,249	97,992	22,820
– Gross Shorts:	95,811	27,517	20,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	72.0	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	11.7	9.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	38.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	47.2	7.3
– Net Position:	2,770	-3,877	1,107
– Gross Longs:	18,619	17,004	4,355
– Gross Shorts:	15,849	20,881	3,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	29.8	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-29.2	7.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.0	37.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	75.5	1.8
– Net Position:	51,311	-55,780	4,469
– Gross Longs:	83,729	55,155	7,127
– Gross Shorts:	32,418	110,935	2,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	45.5	47.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	7.1	3.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	33.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	70.2	1.0
– Net Position:	44,730	-48,182	3,452
– Gross Longs:	66,374	44,952	4,804
– Gross Shorts:	21,644	93,134	1,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	17.9	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-0.9	-0.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.3	6.9	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.2	1.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,161	1,692	469
– Gross Longs:	24,232	2,152	1,497
– Gross Shorts:	26,393	460	1,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	94.3	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.1	3.2	61.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

28 Jun

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Lean Hogs & Silver lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 99.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 6 points this week. The speculator position registered 7,260 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 5,223 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 99 percent score or just below its maximum of the 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 36 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 94,956 net contracts this week although saw a dip by -1,312 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19 points this week. The overall speculator position was 62,947 net contracts this week with a reduction by -4,227 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position registers number four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 19 points this week.

The speculator position was -209,526 net contracts this week with a drop by -19,812 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen speculator position rounds out the top five in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese yen speculator level is at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -11 points this week. The overall speculator position was 132,277 net contracts this week with an increase by 1,400 contracts in the speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position also comes in tied at the top of the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -23 points this week. The overall speculator position was -47,220 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -79 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -76,064 net contracts this week with a decrease by -16,876 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,463,629 net contracts this week with a decline of -20,348 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in also tied atop as the most bearish extreme standings. The USD Index speculator level is rounded to a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -12 points this week. The speculator position was -6,034 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,066 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -13 points this week. The speculator position was -367,108 net contracts this week with a dip by -19,423 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

27 Jun

Week Ahead: EURUSD set to rally towards key 1.20 level?

By ForexTime

EURUSD ↑ 3% MTD, trading near 4-year highs
ECB forum in Sintra + key EU/US data = fresh volatility?
EURUSD forecasted to move ↑ 0.3% or ↓ 0.7% post NFP
Bloomberg FX model: EURUSD has 75% of trading within 1.1557 – 1.1880 over 1-week period
Technical level: 1.1700

The world’s most-traded FX pair is on a tear, hitting levels not seen since September 2021!

At the time of writing, EURUSD has gained over 3% this month with prices knocking on key resistance at 1.17.

Why is the EURUSD rallying?

A broadly weaker dollar:

The greenback has been hit by growing bets on a more dovish-leaning Fed amid reports that Trump will announce Powell’s replacement sooner than expected.

Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also reduced appetite for safe-haven assets, enforcing more pressure on the dollar.

We have seen the dollar not only weaken against the euro but against every single G10 currency month-to-date.

With the dollar under pressure, could this mean more upside for the EURUSD ahead of another event-heavy week?

Monday, 30th June

CN50: China PMI’s
GER40: Germany CPI
JP225: Japan industrial production
UK100: UK GDP
US500: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra

Tuesday, 1st July

CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
EUR: Germany Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI, ECB President Lagarde speech
JPY: Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, BOJ Governor Ueda speech
GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, BOE Governor Bailey speech
USDInd: US ISM Manufacturing, S&P Global PMI, Fed Chair Powell speech

Wednesday, 2nd July

AUD: Australia retail sales, building approvals
CAD: Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone unemployment
US400: US ADP employment
Tesla: Second-quarter vehicle sales figures

Thursday, 3rd July

AUD: Australia trade
CN50: China Caixin services PMI
EUR: Eurozone HCOB Services PMI, ECB meeting minutes
JPY: Japan S&P Global Services PMI
USDInd: US June nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims

Friday, 4th July

SG20: Singapore retail sales
EUR: Eurozone PPI, Germany factory orders
Senate vote for signing a Republican-backed tax and spending bill.
US markets closed: Independence Day holiday

Here are 4 key events that could rattle the EURUSD:

1) ECB’s annual forum in Sintra

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will kick off the ECB forum with a keynote speech on Monday, 30th June.

Lagarde will be under the spotlight again on Tuesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank heads discussing “macroeconomic shifts and policy responses”. Should Lagarde or Powell offer any fresh clues about future monetary policy, this could result in heightened volatility on the EURUSD.

2) Eurozone June CPI + data dump

Inflation data from Europe on Tuesday, 1st July could influence expectations around when the ECB will cut interest rates.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (June 2024 vs. June 2025) is expected to rise 1.9%
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 2.3%
CPI month-on-month (June 2025 vs May 2025) to rise 0.2% from 0.0%.

EURUSD is forecasted to move as much as 0.4% or decline 0.3% in a 6-hour window post release.

A softer inflation may fuel speculation around lower rates in Europe, dragging the EURUSD lower.
A hotter-than-expected inflation report could shave ECB cut bets, resulting in a stronger Euro.

Traders are currently pricing a 55% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by September.

Note: Beyond the Eurozone CPI data, it will be wise to keep an eye on the German CPI report, Manufacturing PMI’s, Eurozone unemployment and PPI which may influence the euro.

3) US June nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Here is what markets predict for the key US jobs report on Thursday 3rd July:

June headline NFP number: 120,000

If so, that would be lower than the 139k new jobs created in May.

June unemployment rate: 4.3%

This would represent a 0.1% increase from the 4.2% in May.

A weaker-than-expected US jobs report may weaken the dollar, pushing the EURUSD higher as a result.
Should the US jobs report print stronger than expected, the EURUSD may sink as the Dollar strengthens.

EURUSD is forecasted to move 0.30% up or 0.73% down in the 6 hours after this US NFP release

4) Technical forces

The EURUSD is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index signals that prices are heavily overbought.

A solid daily close above 1.1700 may signal a move toward 1.1800 and 1.1880 – the upper limit of the Bloomberg FX model.

Should 1.1700 prove to be a tough resistance, this could trigger a decline back toward 1.1620 and 1.1557 – the lower limit of the Bloomberg FX model.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 75% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.1557 – 1.1880 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

24 Jun

Uranium Tech Breakthroughs Leading to Global Nuclear Renaissance

Source: Streetwise Reports (6/20/25)

U.S. President Donald Trump enacted executive orders designed to accelerate reactor approvals, enhance domestic uranium production and enrichment capabilities, and promote nuclear technologies. See how this has put the nuclear and uranium sectors in focus for investors.

U.S. President Donald Trump in May enacted four executive orders designed to accelerate reactor approvals, enhance domestic uranium production and enrichment capabilities, and promote the advancement of innovative nuclear technologies.

Trump urged the federal government to expedite the construction of nuclear reactors and to reform the “risk averse” regulatory environment, with the goal of increasing the country’s nuclear energy capacity fourfold by 2050, reported Kamen Kraev for NucNet on May 26.

The directives call for the Department of Energy (DOE) to initiate the construction of 10 large reactors by 2030 and to assist in financing upgrades for existing facilities.

A statement from the White House proclaimed that “America will usher in a nuclear energy renaissance,” after years of “stagnation and shuttered reactors,” Kraev wrote.

“Across the country, American entrepreneurs and engineers are launching a new generation of nuclear companies featuring innovative reactor designs and scalable manufacturing techniques that can make nuclear safe, efficient, and economic,” said White House Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios in an opinion piece on The White House website. “The Trump Administration will clear their path by dismantling outdated barriers that previous administrations had put up in their way.”

Per the announcement, the orders require the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to simplify licensing processes for new reactors, permit testing of reactor designs at DOE laboratories, and allow new reactor construction on federal lands.

The NRC is expected to shorten approval timelines from multiple years to 18 months, while the DOE will identify federal land that is suitable for new nuclear facilities, and initiatives will be undertaken to bolster U.S. uranium mining and domestic enrichment capacities.

“The NRC has failed to license new reactors even as technological advances promise to make nuclear power safer, cheaper, more adaptable, and more abundant than ever,” a fact sheet from the White House stated, according to Kraev’s report.

Kratsios added in his piece, “America’s great innovators and entrepreneurs have run into brick walls when it comes to nuclear technology.”

The Catalyst: Global Investment Growing

The uranium sector has transitioned into a period of heightened focus as the U.S. seeks to revitalize the domestic atomic energy industry and its related supply infrastructure.

Around the world, the transition to clean energy and decarbonization goals have sparked renewed interest in nuclear power, leading to surging demand.

Several countries, including the U.S., the United Kingdom and South Korea, have announced plans to expand nuclear energy capacity by 2050, reported The Astana Times on June 10. Other countries are exploring new builds and/or extending the life span of existing nuclear power plants.

New and high demand is coming from technology sectors needing reliable, carbon-free, around-the-clock power to run their data centers and artificial intelligence systems. Tech giants, including Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Google, continue to invest in nuclear energy to meet this need.

Global investment in nuclear energy has grown 50% each year since 2020, and nuclear capacity is expected to increase 130% by 2050, The Astana Times reported.

Recently introduced governmental initiatives regarding the U.S. uranium sector already have increased domestic momentum and renewed optimism, purported HoldCo Markets in a May 28 research report.

“We anticipate uranium stocks, both large and small, to benefit from changing U.S. nuclear policy,” wrote David Talbot, head of equity research at Red Cloud Securities, in a May 23 Uranium Sector Update.

Using Lasers to Separate Isotopes

LIS Technologies Inc. (LIST), a U.S.-based private company, specializes in proprietary development of an advanced technology to utilize infrared lasers for the selective excitation of molecules, allowing for the separation of desired isotopes from others.

Its Laser Isotope Separation Technology (L.I.S.T) boasts a wide array of applications, distinguishing itself as the only U.S.-origin (and patented) laser uranium enrichment firm, while offering numerous advantages over conventional techniques such as gas diffusion, centrifugation, and previous laser enrichment methods. The proprietary laser-driven process developed by LIST is designed to be more energy-efficient and presents the opportunity for deployment with significantly competitive capital and operational expenses.

L.I.S.T focuses on Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) for existing civilian nuclear facilities, High-Assay LEU (HALEU) aimed at the next generation of Small Modular Reactors (SMR) and Microreactors, the production of stable isotopes for medical and scientific applications, as well as contributions to quantum computing production for semiconductor technologies, the company said. LIS boasts a top-tier nuclear technical team collaborating with prominent nuclear entrepreneurs and industry experts, fostering strong connections within both governmental and private nuclear sectors.

In 2024, LIS Technologies Inc. was chosen as one of six domestic firms to engage in the LEU Enrichment Acquisition Program, which has a total budget of up to $3.4 billion, with contracts extending up to 10 years. Each recipient is projected to secure a minimum contract of US$2 million.

The company has been folding in talent recently, appointing former Deputy Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Brent Park as its executive director of nuclear security and safeguards policy, prominent researcher and engineer Lakasz Urbanski as director of its stable isotope laser program, and leading regulatory expert Julie Olivier as its regulatory affairs and licensing director.

“LIST’s technology arrives at a pivotal moment, as the United States accelerates efforts to build a secure, domestic nuclear‑fuel supply chain,” Park said. “This proprietary technology can be a key step toward reducing reliance on foreign sources of enriched uranium and strengthening our national energy independence. I’m honored to join the company and look forward to advising the leadership team as they advance the CRISLA technology from revival to commercialization.”

Technology Undergoes Evaluation

Last month, the company announced that a group of independent evaluators conducted a Technology Readiness Level Assessment (TRA) of its CRISLA-3G technology at the LIST facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

The CRISLA-3G laser isotope separation technology underwent evaluation and was confirmed to satisfy all criteria necessary for a TRL-4 rating, in accordance with the Department of Energy guidelines specified in DOE G 413.3-4A. This indicates that all essential components were successfully validated in a lab setting, backed by experimental outcomes from the integrated system.

“We are very pleased that the independent Technology Readiness Assessment team scored our TRL at 4, meeting 27 out of 27 criteria,” said Chief Executive Officer and co-founder Christo Liebenberg. “Additionally, the critical technical elements (CTEs) necessary for advancing through TRL-5, TRL-6, and TRL-7 in the upcoming years were also identified. We are confident in our capability to achieve all these CTEs as we pursue our path to commercialization.”

“With our engagement with the TRL assessment team, I feel reassured that our technology is progressing in the right direction,” said Co-Chief Technical Officer Viktor Chikan. “In my opinion, the TRL assessment offers essential transparency for both investors and the technical team to implement the project plan effectively and realize the commercial enrichment facility based on CRISLA technology.”

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc.

One public company on the cutting edge of new nuclear designs is NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE:NASDAQ). Earlier this year, the company set up a dedicated demonstration facility in Westchester County, New York, aimed at testing and validating essential non-nuclear elements of its microreactor designs. This facility will underpin the development of four microreactor models — ZEUS, ODIN, LOKI MMR, and KRONOS MMR — all engineered to deliver portable and scalable solutions for clean energy.

A primary emphasis of the facility will be on the company’s work with the Annular Linear Induction Pump (ALIP) technology, developed as part of a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase III initiative. ALIP is an electromagnetic pump geared toward efficient thermal fluid management, which is crucial for nuclear energy applications. “This advanced facility will play a major role in our development efforts, providing our technical teams with access to key physical data,” stated Jay Yu, Founder and Chairman of NANO Nuclear Energy, in the press release.

To aid in the facility’s construction and development, NANO Nuclear has collaborated with aRobotics Company, an innovator in robotic fabrication and engineering. aRobotics will oversee the multimillion-dollar expansion of the facility and manage the production of crucial non-nuclear components for NANO Nuclear’s reactors, including tailored sensors and equipment to enhance ALIP technology. Their extensive background with the U.S. Department of Defense is expected to bolster safety and performance standards as NANO Nuclear progresses with its reactor innovations.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE:NASDAQ)

	Retail: 52%
	Strategic Investors: 24%
	Institutions: 22%
	Management & Insiders: 2%

52.0%

24.0%

22.0%

^*Share Structure as of 6/20/2025

Source: Refinitiv

This facility is particularly timely, as New York State is investigating advanced nuclear energy options. NANO Nuclear has recently replied to a Request for Information (RFI) from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) concerning the potential for new nuclear technology initiatives within the state. The company anticipates that the facility will be operational by the spring of 2025.

“Once operational, the facility will provide our technical teams with invaluable opportunities to gather physical data and optimize designs to integrate non-nuclear components effectively,” Chief Executive Officer and Head of Reactor Development James Walker said.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Refinitv, 24% of Nano Nuclear is held by one strategic investor, I Financial Ventures Group LLC. Nearly 2% is with management and insiders, 22% is with institutions, and the rest is retail.

Notably, NNE was added to the VanEck Nuclear ETF, signaling increased institutional confidence and positioning the company within a portfolio of key players in the nuclear energy sector.

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. has a market capitalization of approximately US$1.57 billion, with 41.39 million shares outstanding.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of LIS Technologies Inc.
Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
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Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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