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Speculators raise Euro Speculator Bets while British Pound Bets Rebound

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (13,908 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (3,347 contracts), the EuroFX (3,314 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,286 contracts), the Swiss Franc (765 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (617 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (259 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-9,172 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,982 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,002 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-458 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise Euro Speculator Bets while British Pound Bets Rebound

Highlighting the currency’s speculator data this week was a rebound in the British Pound Sterling and a push higher in the Euro speculator bets.

First off, the British Pound Sterling bets surged this week by almost +14,000 contracts. This follows five straight weeks of declines that had brought the Sterling contracts from a positive bullish position as recently as July 22nd into a bearish position that has persisted for the past four weeks. Previously, the GBP speculator position had been in a bullish standing for 22 consecutive weeks from February until July 22nd.

Helping to dent the British Pound Sterling sentiment was an interest rate cut in early August by the Bank of England. Despite the bearish sentiment in the Sterling, the exchange rate for the British Pound against the US Dollar has been higher on the year and has touched the highest levels since 2021, around the 1.3800 level.

So far throughout 2025, the Pound Sterling is up by roughly 11% against the US Dollar and could see further gains as the US Federal Reserve hinted there could be rate cuts coming for the US economy. In fact, 75% of market participants are expecting a 25-basis interest rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Next up, the Euro currency speculator position rose this week by a modest +3,304 contracts. This breaks a streak of four straight weeks of declines and pushes the current speculator standing to the highest level of the past three weeks. The Euro speculator positioning continues to be highly bullish as spec positions have been over +100,000 contracts for 10 consecutive weeks, with this week’s total being +118,745 bullish contracts. Overall, the Euro has now been in a bullish position for 24 straight weeks after turning bullish on March 11th.

In the exchange rate prices, the Euro has been higher by approximately 15% against the US Dollar this year. Currently, the Euro trades at the 1.1739 exchange rate against the US Dollar and has topped out around 1.1890 this year, which was the highest level seen since August of 2021.

Currency Exchange Rates: Mexican Peso leads price changes for last 5 days

The weekly price performance of the major currencies over the last 5 days showed that the Mexican Peso led the way with a weekly rise of 0.82%. The Swiss Franc was next with an increase of 0.66% on the week.

The Yen and the Euro were both slightly above no change on the week, with changes of 0.19% and 0.16%, respectively. The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a -0.04% change. Same with the Canadian Dollar, which had a decline of -0.10% decline for the week.

The British Pound was slightly down with a -0.27% dip. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.30%, Bitcoin fell by -0.31% and the Brazilian Real dipped by -0.45%. Finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -0.99% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the Japanese Yen (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (20 percent) and the Bitcoin (27 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.8 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (20.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (72.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (71.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.7 percent)
Bitcoin (27.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.0 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (26 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-0.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-27.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-33.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-9.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.3 percent)
Bitcoin (26.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (21.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	39.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	21.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-5,988	5,060	928
– Gross Longs:	11,359	11,278	4,046
– Gross Shorts:	17,347	6,218	3,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	96.3	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.7	23.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 118,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	54.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	75.0	5.6
– Net Position:	118,745	-166,431	47,686
– Gross Longs:	252,719	452,297	94,142
– Gross Shorts:	133,974	618,728	46,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	24.5	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	3.7	-19.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	47.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	37.8	12.9
– Net Position:	-25,185	20,792	4,393
– Gross Longs:	81,303	103,816	32,702
– Gross Shorts:	106,488	83,024	28,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	72.5	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	26.6	-12.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 77,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,234 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	40.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	63.0	9.8
– Net Position:	77,581	-79,882	2,301
– Gross Longs:	168,363	139,967	36,614
– Gross Shorts:	90,782	219,849	34,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.0	30.8	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	12.3	-23.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	75.4	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	32.3	25.6
– Net Position:	-27,278	34,522	-7,244
– Gross Longs:	6,459	60,354	13,224
– Gross Shorts:	33,737	25,832	20,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	55.8	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	22.4	-36.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	74.8	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.8	29.1	14.2
– Net Position:	-93,079	100,818	-7,739
– Gross Longs:	19,028	165,165	23,694
– Gross Shorts:	112,107	64,347	31,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	55.8	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	13.8	-30.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -94,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,982 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	66.9	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.1	16.7	11.7
– Net Position:	-94,887	93,396	1,491
– Gross Longs:	31,668	124,358	23,253
– Gross Shorts:	126,555	30,962	21,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	85.6	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	15.0	-12.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	53.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	42.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-4,070	5,069	-999
– Gross Longs:	12,986	25,428	4,229
– Gross Shorts:	17,056	20,359	5,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	39.8	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	13.5	-38.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	37.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	79.7	2.0
– Net Position:	64,525	-67,928	3,403
– Gross Longs:	91,974	61,700	6,638
– Gross Shorts:	27,449	129,628	3,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	39.3	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-4.1	-8.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	34.5	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	66.1	1.0
– Net Position:	30,410	-33,494	3,084
– Gross Longs:	61,948	36,559	4,144
– Gross Shorts:	31,538	70,053	1,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	29.7	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	15.8	-6.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.6	5.4	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.8	2.7	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,200	758	442
– Gross Longs:	23,064	1,552	1,493
– Gross Shorts:	24,264	794	1,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	73.5	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-25.0	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 Aug

Speculator Extremes: MSCI EAFE & FedFunds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 19th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in at the top of the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a change of 3 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 5,439 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -2,355 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings as the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 33,845 net contracts this week with a decline of -8,467 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week as the Live Cattle speculator level is at 83 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 106,141 net contracts this week with no change in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 69,709 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,218 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level is at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a change of -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -242,162 net contracts this week with a drop by -33,030 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The FedFunds speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a large drop by -62 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -317,054 net contracts this week with a reduction by -83,387 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -38 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 120,209 net contracts this week with a rise of 3,467 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The USD Index speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -5,988 net contracts this week with an increase of 259 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -70,293 net contracts this week with a slide of -1,781 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Next, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,508,383 net contracts this week with a change of 57,986 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

21 Aug

Would You Invest in a Despised Company?

Source: Chris Reilly (8/20/25)

Chris Reilly of RiskHedge takes a look at how some of the most influential market-changing businesses were once despised.

You’ve heard of the phrase “buy when there’s blood in the streets.”

Baron Rothschild invented this expression in 1815 during the Battle of Waterloo. While British forces clashed with Napoleon’s army, the Baron wagered his entire personal wealth on British government securities.

No one was willing to finance Britain when defeat seemed possible, but Rothschild deployed his capital when the streets were literally covered in blood.

And following Britain’s victory over Napoleon, he catapulted to the pinnacle of global wealth rankings.

Rothschild employed one of the most reliable strategies for financial success. He identified an asset everyone avoided . . . Acquired it . . . And patiently waited for sentiment to shift in his direction.

Purchasing a disliked investment is challenging in practice. You’ll experience feelings of recklessness. Yet acquiring underappreciated gems frequently leads to substantial returns. Indeed, numerous revolutionary market leaders share an unusual characteristic — they were initially disliked.

Consider Netflix

We recognize Netflix Inc. (NFLX:NASDAQ) as the innovator that created online streaming. But previously. . .

Netflix began as the pioneer in digital DVD rental services. Remember ordering films online and receiving discs in your mailbox days later? Americans adored the original Netflix. You enjoyed unlimited films for merely $10 monthly.

Netflix eliminated the worst aspect of movie rentals: late penalties. In fact, it was so popular that many Americans barely noticed when Netflix introduced streaming in 2007. They preferred physical discs! By 2011, Netflix had surpassed 20 million subscribers. And they continued shipping millions of DVDs in their signature envelopes daily.

Additionally, they were spending $600 million on postal expenses. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings developed a strategic plan to transition customers away from physical media.

He recognized streaming would eventually eliminate physical formats. So Hastings decided it was time to make a decisive move toward streaming. Against his team’s recommendations, he divided Netflix subscriptions. Customers could now stream content for just $8 monthly.

However, those still wanting DVD rentals would need to pay $16 monthly — a 60% increase. While Netflix was prepared to commit fully to streaming, customers weren’t — and they rebelled. Netflix lost approximately one million subscribers within several months. And its stock value dropped 77%:

Hastings’ reputation plummeted. He transitioned from being named Fortune’s Businessperson of the Year in 2010 . . . to The New York Times’ “Worst CEO” of 2011.

Interestingly, this presented an extraordinary opportunity to acquire Netflix shares. Hastings’ transition to streaming proved to be among the most brilliant corporate decisions. As streaming quality improved, most consumers discarded their DVD players.

Indeed, Netflix completely transformed our viewing habits. Physical DVDs now seem prehistoric. Netflix had 20 million paying subscribers in 2011 when they gambled everything on streaming. Today they exceed 300 million. And investors who purchased Netflix in 2011, when most avoided it, have realized enormous profits.

Now, Examine Tesla

During Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA:NASDAQ) initial decade, Tesla exclusively sold luxury electric vehicles exceeding $70,000. But in 2016, Musk unveiled their first mainstream vehicle, the Model 3. Tesla planned to price the Model 3 at just $35,000, making it accessible to millions of middle-income buyers.

This vehicle was poised to revolutionize the automotive industry. Its introduction should have marked Tesla’s defining moment. Instead, it nearly bankrupted the company. In 2015, Tesla was manufacturing approximately three vehicles daily.

To successfully produce the mainstream Model 3, they would need to manufacture 5,000 vehicles weekly. Tesla wasn’t prepared for this massive production increase and consistently missed targets.

Elon Musk worked 22 hours daily, seven days a week, addressing production challenges. He regularly slept at the factory because he “didn’t have time to go home and shower.” Yet almost a year after the Model 3 launch, Tesla still struggled to produce even 2,000 vehicles weekly. When earnings declined due to unexpectedly high production expenses, its stock plunged to nearly its lowest point since 2016:

Tesla’s shares had stagnated for five years, becoming Wall Street’s most despised stock. Investment bank Morgan Stanley reduced its worst-case projection to $10/share. Investors wagered a record $15 billion against Tesla’s stock. This was more than twice the amount bet against any other market stock.

Just as collapse seemed imminent, Tesla rebounded dramatically. In late 2019, they surprised Wall Street by delivering a record 97,000 vehicles. Tesla followed with another milestone, shipping over 100,000 vehicles in a single quarter for the first time. Investors who purchased Tesla at its lowest point have been handsomely rewarded.

What’s the Key To Investing in Despised Stocks?

Investing revolves around expectations. Stocks frequently rise — and fall — based on performance relative to investor expectations. When people believe a company will dominate globally, it creates a significant threshold that’s difficult to surpass.

For instance, in 2006, Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL:NASDAQ) announced a 97% revenue increase. You might assume the stock soared following exceptional earnings, correct?

Instead, it plummeted 16% at market opening. Essentially, Wall Street was disappointed because analysts expected Google to grow revenue by over 100%.

Conversely, when investors dislike a stock, they establish such minimal expectations that exceeding them becomes almost inevitable.

So when a disliked company — like Tesla — delivers more vehicles than investors anticipate, its value skyrockets. Ultimately, if you’re seeking substantial returns, you should consider investing in despised stocks.

For more insights, subscribe to our investing letter, The Jolt.

We publish fresh research and analysis on today’s big disruption investing opportunities.

Click here to subscribe.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Tesla Inc.
Chris Reilly: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Opinions Stock Market News

20 Aug

We tracked illegal fishing in marine protected areas – satellites and AI show most bans are respected, and could help enforce future ones

By Jennifer Raynor, University of Wisconsin-Madison Marine protected areas cover more than 8% of the world’s oceans today, but they can get a bad rap as being protected on paper only.

While the name invokes safe havens for fish, whales and other sea life, these areas can be hard to monitor. High-profile violations, such as recent fishing fleet incursions near the Galapagos Islands and ships that “go dark” by turning off their tracking devices, have fueled concerns about just how much poaching is going undetected.

But some protected areas are successfully keeping illegal fishing out.

In a new global study using satellite technology that can track large ships even if they turn off their tracking systems, my colleagues and I found that marine protected areas where industrial fishing is fully banned are largely succeeding at preventing poaching.

What marine protected areas aim to save

Picture a sea turtle gliding by as striped butterfly fish weave through coral branches. Or the deep blue of the open ocean, where tuna flash like silver and seabirds wheel overhead.

These habitats, where fish and other marine life breed and feed, are the treasures that marine protected areas aim to protect.

The value of marine protected areas for people and nature.

A major threat to these ecosystems is industrial fishing.

These vessels can operate worldwide and stay at sea for years at a time with visits from refrigerated cargo ships that ferry their catch to port. China has an extensive global fleet of ships that operate as far away as the coast of South America and other regions.

The global industrial fishing fleet – nearly half a million vessels – hauls in about 100 million metric tons of seafood each year. That’s about a fivefold increase since 1950, though it has been close to flat for the past 30 years. Today, more than one-third of commercial fish species are overfished, exceeding what population growth can replenish.

When well designed and enforced, marine protected areas can help to restore fish populations and marine habitats. My previous work shows they can even benefit nearby fisheries because the fish spill over into surrounding areas.

That’s why expanding marine protected areas is a cornerstone of international conservation policy. Nearly every country has pledged to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030.

Big promises – and big doubts

But what “protection” means can vary.

Some marine protected areas ban industrial fishing. These are the gold standard for conservation, and research shows they can be effective ways to increase the amount of sea life and diversity of species.

However, most marine protected areas don’t meet that standard. While governments report that more than 8% of the global ocean is protected, only about 3% is actually covered by industrial fishing bans. Many “protected” areas even allow bottom trawling, one of the most destructive fishing practices, although regulations are slowly changing.

The plentiful fish in better-protected areas can also attract poachers. In one high-profile case, a Chinese vessel was caught inside the Galápagos Marine Reserve with 300 tons of marine life, including 6,000 dead sharks, in 2017. This crew faced heavy fines and prison time. But how many others go unseen?

Shining a light on the ‘dark fleet’

Much of what the world knows about global industrial fishing comes from the automatic identification system, or AIS, which many ships are required to use. This system broadcasts their location every few seconds, primarily to reduce the risk of collisions at sea. Using artificial intelligence, researchers can analyze movement patterns in these messages to estimate when and where fishing is happening.

But AIS has blind spots. Captains can turn it off, tamper with data or avoid using it entirely. Coverage is also spotty in busy areas, such as Southeast Asia.

New satellite technologies are helping to see into those blind spots. Synthetic aperture radar can detect vessels even when they’re not transmitting AIS. It works by sending radar pulses to the ocean surface and measuring what bounces back. Paired with artificial intelligence, it reveals previously invisible activity.

Synthetic aperture radar still has limits – primarily difficulty detecting small boats and less frequent coverage than AIS – but it’s still a leap forward. In one study of coastal areas using both technologies, we found in about 75% of instances fishing vessels detected by synthetic aperture radar were not being tracked by AIS.

New global analysis shows what really happens

Two studies published in the journal Science on July 24, 2025, use these satellite datasets to track industrial fishing activity in marine protected areas.

Our study looked just at those marine protected areas where all industrial fishing is explicitly banned by law.

We combined AIS vessel tracking, synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery, official marine protected area rules, and implementation dates showing exactly when those bans took effect. The analysis covers nearly 1,400 marine protected areas spanning about 3 million square miles (7.9 million square kilometers) where industrial fishing is explicitly prohibited.

Two images show lots of fishing activity around the edges of the protected area, but little activity inside it. — AIS transponder signals over 2017-2021 (top) and synthetic aperture radar data (bottom) both show industrial fishing activity (yellow) mostly avoiding Carrington Point State Marine Reserve, a protected area off California’s Santa Rosa Island.
Jennifer Raynor, Sara Orofino and Gavin McDonald

The results were striking:

Most of these protected areas showed little to no signs of industrial fishing.
We detected about five fishing vessels per 100,000 square kilometers on average in these areas, compared to 42 on average in unprotected coastal areas.
96% had less than one day per year of alleged illegal fishing effort.

The second study uses the same AIS and synthetic aperture radar data to examine a broader set of marine protected areas – including many that explicitly allow fishing. They document substantial fishing activity in these areas, with about eight times more detections than in the protected areas that ban industrial fishing.

Combined, these two studies lead to a clear conclusion: Marine protected areas with weak regulations see substantial industrial fishing, but where bans are in place, they’re largely respected.

We can’t tell whether these fishing bans are effective because they’re well enforced or simply because they were placed where little fishing happened anyway. Still, when violations do occur, this system offers a way for enforcement agencies to detect them.

A reason for optimism

These technological advances in vessel tracking have the potential to reshape marine law enforcement by significantly reducing the costs of monitoring.

Agencies such as national navies and coast guards no longer need to rely solely on costly physical patrols over huge areas. With tools such as the Global Fishing Watch map, which makes vessel tracking data freely available to the public, they can monitor activity remotely and focus patrol efforts where they’re needed most.

That can also have a deterrent effect. In Costa Rica’s Cocos Island National Park, evidence of illegal fishing activity decreased substantially after the rollout of satellite and radar-based vessel tracking. Similar efforts are strengthening enforcement in the Galapagos Islands and Mexico’s Revillagigedo National Park.

Beyond marine protected areas, these technologies also have the potential to support tracking a broad range of human activities, such as oil slicks and deep-sea mining, making companies more accountable in how they use the ocean.

About the Author:

Jennifer Raynor, Assistant Professor of Natural Resource Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

19 Aug

Some pro athletes keep getting better as they age − neuroscience can explain how they stay sharp

By Fiddy Davis Jaihind Jothikaran, Hope College

In a world where sports are dominated by youth and speed, some athletes in their late 30s and even 40s are not just keeping up – they are thriving.

Novak Djokovic is still outlasting opponents nearly half his age on tennis’s biggest stages. LeBron James continues to dictate the pace of NBA games, defending centers and orchestrating plays like a point guard. Allyson Felix won her 11th Olympic medal in track and field at age 35. And Tom Brady won a Super Bowl at 43, long after most NFL quarterbacks retire.

The sustained excellence of these athletes is not just due to talent or grit – it’s biology in action. Staying at the top of their game reflects a trainable convergence of brain, body and mindset. I’m a performance scientist and a physical therapist who has spent over two decades studying how athletes train, taper, recover and stay sharp. These insights aren’t just for high-level athletes – they hold true for anyone navigating big life changes or working to stay healthy.

Increasingly, research shows that the systems that support high performance – from motor control to stress regulation, to recovery – are not fixed traits but trainable capacities. In a world of accelerating change and disruption, the ability to adapt to new changes may be the most important skill of all. So, what makes this adaptability possible – biologically, cognitively and emotionally?

The amygdala and prefrontal cortex

Neuroscience research shows that with repeated exposure to high-stakes situations, the brain begins to adapt. The prefrontal cortex – the region most responsible for planning, focus and decision-making – becomes more efficient in managing attention and making decisions, even under pressure.

During stressful situations, such as facing match point in a Grand Slam final, this area of the brain can help an athlete stay composed and make smart choices – but only if it’s well trained.

In contrast, the amygdala, our brain’s threat detector, can hijack performance by triggering panic, freezing motor responses or fueling reckless decisions. With repeated exposure to high-stakes moments, elite athletes gradually reshape this brain circuit.

They learn to tune down amygdala reactivity and keep the prefrontal cortex online, even when the pressure spikes. This refined brain circuitry enables experienced performers to maintain their emotional control.

Creating a brain-body loop

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor, or BDNF, is a molecule that supports adapting to changes quickly. Think of it as fertilizer for the brain. It enhances neuroplasticity: the brain’s ability to rewire itself through experience and repetition. This rewiring helps athletes build and reinforce the patterns of connections between brain cells to control their emotion, manage their attention and move with precision.

BDNF levels increase with intense physical activity, mental focus and deliberate practice, especially when combined with recovery strategies such as sleep and deep breathing.

Elevated BDNF levels are linked to better resilience against stress and may support faster motor learning, which is the process of developing or refining movement patterns.

For example, after losing a set, Djokovic often resets by taking deep, slow breaths – not just to calm his nerves, but to pause and regain control. This conscious breathing helps him restore focus and likely quiets the stress signals in his brain.

In moments like these, higher BDNF availability likely allows him to regulate his emotions and recalibrate his motor response, helping him to return to peak performance faster than his opponent.

Rewiring your brain

In essence, athletes who repeatedly train and compete in pressure-filled environments are rewiring their brain to respond more effectively to those demands. This rewiring, from repeated exposures, helps boost BDNF levels and in turn keeps the prefrontal cortex sharp and dials down the amygdala’s tendency to overreact.

This kind of biological tuning is what scientists call cognitive reserve and allostasis – the process the body uses to make changes in response to stress or environmental demands to remain stable. It helps the brain and body be flexible, not fragile.

Importantly, this adaptation isn’t exclusive to elite athletes. Studies on adults of all ages show that regular physical activity – particularly exercises that challenge both body and mind – can raise BDNF levels, improve the brain’s ability to adapt and respond to new challenges, and reduce stress reactivity.

Programs that combine aerobic movement with coordination tasks, such as dancing, complex drills or even fast-paced walking while problem-solving have been shown to preserve skills such as focus, planning, impulse control and emotional regulation over time.

After an intense training session or a match, you will often see athletes hopping on a bike or spending some time in the pool. These low-impact, gentle movements, known as active recovery, help tone down the nervous system gradually.

Outside of active recovery, sleep is where the real reset and repair happen. Sleep aids in learning and strengthens the neural connections challenged during training and competition.

Over time, this convergence creates a trainable loop between the brain and body that is better equipped to adapt, recover and perform.

Lessons beyond sport

While the spotlight may shine on sporting arenas, you don’t need to be a pro athlete to train these same skills.

The ability to perform under pressure is a result of continuing adaptation. Whether you’re navigating a career pivot, caring for family members, or simply striving to stay mentally sharp as the world changes, the principles are the same: Expose yourself to challenges, regulate stress and recover deliberately.

While speed, agility and power may decline with age, some sport-specific skills such as anticipation, decision-making and strategic awareness actually improve. Athletes with years of experience develop faster mental models of how a play will unfold, which allows them to make better and faster choices with minimal effort. This efficiency is a result of years of reinforcing neural circuits that doesn’t immediately vanish with age. This is one reason experienced athletes often excel even if they are well past their physical prime.

Physical activity, especially dynamic and coordinated movement, boosts the brain’s capacity to adapt. So does learning new skills, practicing mindfulness and even rehearsing performance under pressure. In daily life, this might be a surgeon practicing a critical procedure in simulation, a teacher preparing for a tricky parent meeting, or a speaker practicing a high-stakes presentation to stay calm and composed when it counts. These aren’t elite rituals – they’re accessible strategies for building resilience, motor efficiency and emotional control.

Humans are built to adapt – with the right strategies, you can sustain excellence at any stage of life.

About the Author:

Fiddy Davis Jaihind Jothikaran, Associate Professor of Kinesiology, Hope College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

19 Aug

Data centers consume massive amounts of water – companies rarely tell the public exactly how much

By Peyton McCauley, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Melissa Scanlan, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee As demand for artificial intelligence technology boosts construction and proposed construction of data centers around the world, those computers require not just electricity and land, but also a significant amount of water. Data centers use water directly, with cooling water pumped through pipes in and around the computer equipment. They also use water indirectly, through the water required to produce the electricity to power the facility. The amount of water used to produce electricity increases dramatically when the source is fossil fuels compared with solar or wind.

A 2024 report from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimated that in 2023, U.S. data centers consumed 17 billion gallons (64 billion liters) of water, and projects that by 2028, those figures could double – or even quadruple. The same report estimated that in 2023, U.S. data centers consumed an additional 211 billion gallons (800 billion liters) of water indirectly through the electricity that powers them. But that is just an estimate in a fast-changing industry.

We are researchers in water law and policy based on the shores of Lake Michigan. Technology companies are eyeing the Great Lakes region to host data centers, including one proposed for Port Washington, Wisconsin, which could be one of the largest in the country. The Great Lakes region offers a relatively cool climate and an abundance of water, making the region an attractive location for hot and thirsty data centers.

The Great Lakes are an important, binational resource that more than 40 million people depend on for their drinking water and supports a US$6 trillion regional economy. Data centers compete with these existing uses and may deplete local groundwater aquifers.

Our analysis of public records, government documents and sustainability reports compiled by top data center companies has found that technology companies don’t always reveal how much water their data centers use. In a forthcoming Rutgers Computer and Technology Law Journal article, we walk through our methods and findings using these resources to uncover the water demands of data centers.

In general, corporate sustainability reports offered the most access and detail – including that in 2024, one data center in Iowa consumed 1 billion (3.8 billion liters) gallons of water – enough to supply all of Iowa’s residential water for five days.

The computer processors in data centers generate lots of heat while doing their work.

How do data centers use water?

The servers and routers in data centers work hard and generate a lot of heat. To cool them down, data centers use large amounts of water – in some cases over 25% of local community water supplies. In 2023, Google reported consuming over 6 billion gallons of water (nearly 23 billion liters) to cool all its data centers.

In some data centers, the water is used up in the cooling process. In an evaporative cooling system, pumps push cold water through pipes in the data center. The cold water absorbs the heat produced by the data center servers, turning into steam that is vented out of the facility. This system requires a constant supply of cold water.

In closed-loop cooling systems, the cooling process is similar, but rather than venting steam to the air, air-cooled chillers cool down the hot water. The cooled water is then recirculated to cool the facility again. This does not require constant addition of large volumes of water, but it uses a lot more energy to run the chillers. The actual numbers showing those differences, which likely vary by the facility, are not publicly available.

One key way to evaluate water use is the amount of water that is considered “consumed,” meaning it is withdrawn from the local water supply and used up – for instance, evaporated as steam – and not returned to the ecosystem.

For information, we first looked to government data, such as that kept by municipal water systems, but the process of getting all the necessary data can be onerous and time-consuming, with some denying data access due to confidentiality concerns. So we turned to other sources to uncover data center water use.

Sustainability reports provide insight

Many companies, especially those that prioritize sustainability, release publicly available reports about their environmental and sustainability practices, including water use. We focused on six top tech companies with data centers: Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Digital Realty and Equinix. Our findings revealed significant variability in both how much water the companies’ data centers used, and how much specific information the companies’ reports actually provided.

Sustainability reports offer a valuable glimpse into data center water use. But because the reports are voluntary, different companies report different statistics in ways that make them hard to combine or compare. Importantly, these disclosures do not consistently include the indirect water consumption from their electricity use, which the Lawrence Berkeley Lab estimated was 12 times greater than the direct use for cooling in 2023. Our estimates highlighting specific water consumption reports are all related to cooling.

Amazon releases annual sustainability reports, but those documents do not disclose how much water the company uses. Microsoft provides data on its water demands for its overall operations, but does not break down water use for its data centers. Meta does that breakdown, but only in a companywide aggregate figure. Google provides individual figures for each data center.

In general, the five companies we analyzed that do disclose water usage show a general trend of increasing direct water use each year. Researchers attribute this trend to data centers.

A closer look at Google and Meta

To take a deeper look, we focused on Google and Meta, as they provide some of the most detailed reports of data center water use.

Data centers make up significant proportions of both companies’ water use. In 2023, Meta consumed 813 million gallons of water globally (3.1 billion liters) – 95% of which, 776 million gallons (2.9 billion liters), was used by data centers.

For Google, the picture is similar, but with higher numbers. In 2023, Google operations worldwide consumed 6.4 billion gallons of water (24.2 billion liters), with 95%, 6.1 billion gallons (23.1 billion liters), used by data centers.

Google reports that in 2024, the company’s data center in Council Bluffs, Iowa, consumed 1 billion gallons of water (3.8 billion liters), the most of any of its data centers.

The Google data center using the least that year was in Pflugerville, Texas, which consumed 10,000 gallons (38,000 liters) – about as much as one Texas home would use in two months. That data center is air-cooled, not water-cooled, and consumes significantly less water than the 1.5 million gallons (5.7 million liters) at an air-cooled Google data center in Storey County, Nevada. Because Google’s disclosures do not pair water consumption data with the size of centers, technology used or indirect water consumption from power, these are simply partial views, with the big picture obscured.

Given society’s growing interest in AI, the data center industry will likely continue its rapid expansion. But without a consistent and transparent way to track water consumption over time, the public and government officials will be making decisions about locations, regulations and sustainability without complete information on how these massive companies’ hot and thirsty buildings will affect their communities and their environments.

About the Authors:

Peyton McCauley, Water Policy Specialist, Sea Grant UW Water Science-Policy Fellow, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Melissa Scanlan, Professor and Director of the Center for Water Policy, School of Freshwater Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News

17 Aug

Speculators push Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (14,984 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (783 contracts), Bitcoin (759 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (146 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-10,657 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,772 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,345 contracts), the British Pound (-5,790 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,816 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-666 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-528 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

Leading the speculator changes this week for the major currency markets was the Brazilian Real, which saw a gain of almost 15,000 speculator contracts on the week. This was the second straight week of gains for the Brazilian Real and the third time out of the last four weeks that speculator bets have increased. Overall, the Real position is at +39,582 contracts, which is the best mark over the last five weeks. The Real has been at least +20,000 or above speculator contracts for the last 24 weeks in a row.

The Brazilian Real exchange rate versus the U.S. Dollar rose for a second straight week this week and continues to be in an uptrend after falling to a record low to end December. Overall, for the year of 2025, the Brazilian Real is up by over 12% while since the December bottoming, the Brazilian Real is up by over 16.65%.

Next up, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a small edge higher in their weekly speculator bets. The U.S. Dollar Index speculator positions rose by 783 contracts this week following two weeks of decreases. At the moment, the U.S. Dollar Index standing is at -6,247 contracts, and overall the USD positioning has now been in a negative or bearish level for nine consecutive weeks with a speculator strength score of just 1.8% (out of a 0 to 100 range), illustrating the current weakness of the U.S. Dollar.

In the exchange rate markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell for a second straight week and closed the week at 97.695 exchange rate. The dollar had rebounded all the way up to the 100 level a couple of weeks ago but found resistance and got pushed back down. Overall, since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index is down by over 12%.

British Pound Sterling led weekly market prices

The major currency market prices did not see much movement this week with no currency rising or falling by over 1%. The leader in price gains was the British Pound Sterling which was higher by 0.78% on the week. The Euro came in next with a rise of 0.50%, followed by the Brazilian Real at 0.44%. Bitcoin was higher by 0.42%, the Japanese Yen was slightly higher by 0.35%, followed by the Swiss Franc at 0.20%.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar was slightly lower at -0.23%, followed by the US Dollar Index, which saw a dip by -0.33%. The Canadian Dollar was at -0.41%, the New Zealand Dollar at -0.43%, and the biggest loser in the week was the Mexican Peso at -0.77%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (77 percent) and the EuroFX (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (71 percent), Mexican Peso (60 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.0 percent)
EuroFX (72.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (71.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (58.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.5 percent)
Bitcoin (37.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.9 percent)

Bitcoin, Peso & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (21 percent), the Mexican Peso (3 percent) and the EuroFX (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-13 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.3 percent)
EuroFX (3.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-33.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-32.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.3 percent)
Bitcoin (21.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	37.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.4	20.5	10.1
– Net Position:	-6,247	5,122	1,125
– Gross Longs:	12,729	11,370	4,202
– Gross Shorts:	18,976	6,248	3,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	96.4	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.0	26.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 115,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	55.5	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	75.8	5.4
– Net Position:	115,431	-167,063	51,632
– Gross Longs:	246,299	458,037	96,093
– Gross Shorts:	130,868	625,100	44,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	24.3	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.2	-3.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	50.5	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.2	34.1	12.4
– Net Position:	-39,093	35,517	3,576
– Gross Longs:	73,736	109,217	30,321
– Gross Shorts:	112,829	73,700	26,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	78.6	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.5	32.9	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	41.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	63.0	10.1
– Net Position:	74,234	-73,895	-339
– Gross Longs:	164,693	147,170	35,172
– Gross Shorts:	90,459	221,065	35,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	32.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.4	-53.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	75.5	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	34.2	22.7
– Net Position:	-28,043	33,224	-5,181
– Gross Longs:	6,091	60,689	13,086
– Gross Shorts:	34,134	27,465	18,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	53.7	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	18.7	-31.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -90,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	73.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	31.3	12.1
– Net Position:	-90,077	93,571	-3,494
– Gross Longs:	20,898	162,833	23,352
– Gross Shorts:	110,975	69,262	26,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	52.8	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	14.0	-17.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -87,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	66.8	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.3	17.6	11.9
– Net Position:	-87,905	84,233	3,672
– Gross Longs:	25,631	114,396	24,097
– Gross Shorts:	113,536	30,163	20,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	80.1	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.9	-1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	45.9	10.2
– Net Position:	-4,687	5,799	-1,112
– Gross Longs:	11,160	27,937	3,806
– Gross Shorts:	15,847	22,138	4,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	40.7	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	13.0	-34.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 61,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.4	37.2	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	72.8	1.6
– Net Position:	61,239	-64,848	3,609
– Gross Longs:	106,539	67,876	6,499
– Gross Shorts:	45,300	132,724	2,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	40.9	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.6	-9.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	34.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	76.4	0.8
– Net Position:	39,582	-43,069	3,487
– Gross Longs:	59,388	35,788	4,287
– Gross Shorts:	19,806	78,857	800
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	22.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	8.1	14.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.2	4.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.8	4.5	3.6
– Net Position:	-742	118	624
– Gross Longs:	23,438	1,371	1,624
– Gross Shorts:	24,180	1,253	1,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	59.2	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-26.4	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

17 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 12th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an increase by 22 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 42,312 net contracts this week with a gain of 8,476 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is now at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the percent strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 7,794 net contracts this week with a weekly increase by 1,940 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level is at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 7 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -209,132 net contracts this week with a rise of 19,235 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position rounds out the top four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 73,927 net contracts this week with a small boost by 789 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 106,141 net contracts this week with a dip of -234 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level sits at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,566,369 net contracts this week with a drop by -29,492 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -51 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 116,742 net contracts this week with a reduction by -25,087 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week with the USD Index speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -6,247 net contracts this week with a gain of 783 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the speculator strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -68,512 net contracts this week with a boost by 8,460 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -8 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,379,597 net contracts this week with a drop by -54,074 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

15 Aug

Week Ahead: US30 faces Jackson Hole & retail earnings showdown

By ForexTime

US30 ↑ 6% year-to-date, futures pointing to fresh ATH
Home Depot + Walmart = 7.3% of US30 weight
Jackson Hole Symposium + US data could trigger more volatility
Technical levels: 45,500, 45,000 & 44,000

A cocktail of high-risk events may serve up fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

All eyes will be on the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, key data and earnings from the largest retail companies in the United States:

Monday, 18th August

CAD: Canada housing starts
JP225: Japan tertiary industry index
SG20: Singapore trade

Tuesday, 19th August

AUD: Australia consumer confidence
CAD: Canada CPI
US30: Home Depot earnings

Wednesday, 20th August

CN50: China loan prime rates
EUR: Eurozone CPI
JP225: Japan trade, machinery orders
NZD: New Zealand rate decision
GBP: UK CPI
USDInd: US FOMC meeting minutes, Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, 21st August

EU50: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence
GER40: Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI
JPY: Japan S&P Global manufacturing PMI
UK100: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI
US30: US initial jobless claims, Conference Board leading index, existing home sales, S&P Global manufacturing PMI, Walmart earnings.

Friday, 22nd August

CAD: Canada retail sales
GER40: Germany GDP
JPY: Japan CPI
GBP: UK retail sales
US30: Fed Chair Powell speech at Jackson Hole

FXTM’s US30 is up almost 6% year-to-date, with futures pointing to a fresh all-time high when US markets open this afternoon.

Note: FXTM’s US30 tracks the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average index.

US equities appear to be recovering from the inflation-induced selloff after US PPI data accelerated in July by the most in three years. Still, traders are pricing in a 93% probability of a Fed cut by September.

Here are 3 factors that may rock the US30:

1) Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

This is an annual event organized by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and will be held from August 21st – August 23rd.

Anything discussed during the symposium could trigger market volatility, especially if it has to do with monetary policy. The spotlight shines on Jerome Powell on Friday amid repeated calls from President Donald Trump to cut interest rates.

Should Powell strike a dovish note and signal that the Fed will cut rates in September, the US30 could push higher.
If Powell expresses concern over inflation risks and sounds more hawkish, this may weigh on the US30 as traders cut back Fed cut bets.

2) Home Depot & Walmart earnings

Earnings from two behemoths in the US retail industry could provide key insight into the strength of consumer spending in the face of Trump’s tariffs.

Home Depot releases its earnings before US markets open on Tuesday, 19th August, and accounts for 5.5% of the US30 index.
Walmart reveals its Q2 earnings before US markets open on Thursday, 21st August, and accounts for 1.4% of the US30 index.

Ultimately, a positive set of earnings from these retail giants may boost confidence in the US economy – supporting the US30 as risk sentiment jumps. If earnings disappoint, the US30 may dip, but losses could be cushioned by Fed cut bets.

Note: Beyond earnings, watch out for the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, PMIs on Thursday, all of which could influence the US30 index.

3) Technical forces

The US30 has experienced a bullish breakout above resistance at 45,000.

Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is venturing close to overbought territory.

Should 45,000 prove reliable support regions, prices may venture toward fresh all-time highs at 45,500 and 46,000.
A move back below 45,000 may trigger a selloff back toward 44,400 and 44,000.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

14 Aug

Where America’s CO2 emissions come from – what you need to know, in charts

By Kenneth J. Davis, Penn State

Earth’s atmosphere contains carbon dioxide, which is good for life on Earth – in moderation. Plants use CO₂ as the source of the carbon they build into leaves and wood via photosynthesis. In combination with water vapor, CO₂ insulates the Earth, keeping it from turning into a frozen world. Life as we know it on Earth would not exist without CO₂ in the atmosphere.

Since the industrial revolution began, however, humans have been adding more and more carbon dioxide to the Earth’s atmosphere, and it has become a problem.

The atmospheric concentration of CO₂ has risen by more than 50% since industries began burning coal and other fossil fuels in the late 1700s, reaching concentrations that haven’t been found in the Earth’s atmosphere in at least a million years. And the concentration continues to rise.

A line chart shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations mostly stable for hundreds of years and then rising with the start of the industrial revolution, and accelerating their rise starting in the mid-1900s. — Chart from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, CC BY

Excess CO₂ drives global warming

Who cares? Everyone should.

More CO₂ in the air means temperatures at the Earth’s surface rise. As temperature rises, the water cycle accelerates, leading to more floods and droughts. Glaciers melt, and warmer ocean water expands, raising sea levels.

We are living with an increasing frequency or intensity of wildfires, heat waves, flooding and hurricanes, all influenced by increasing CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere.

The ocean also absorbs some of that CO₂, making the water increasingly acidic, which can harm species crucial to the marine food chain.

Where is this additional CO₂ coming from?

The biggest source of additional CO₂ is the combustion of fossil fuels – oil, natural gas and coal – to power vehicles, electricity generation and industries. Each of these fuels consists of hydrocarbons built by plants that grew on the Earth over the past few hundred million years.

These plants took CO₂ out of the planet’s atmosphere, died, and their biomass was buried in water and sediments.

Today, humans are reversing hundreds of millions of years of carbon accumulation by digging these fuels out of the Earth and burning them to provide energy.

Let’s dig a little deeper.

Where do CO₂ emissions come from in the US?

The Environmental Protection Agency has tracked U.S. greenhouse gas emissions for years.

The U.S. emitted 5,053 million metric tons of CO₂ into the atmosphere in 2022, the last year for which a complete emissions inventory is available. We also emit other greenhouse gases, including methane, from natural gas production and animal agriculture, and nitrous oxide, created when microbes digest nitrogen fertilizer. But carbon dioxide is about 80% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

Of those 5,053 million metric tons of CO₂ emitted by the U.S. in 2022, 93% came from the combustion of fossil fuels.

More specifically: about 35% of the CO₂ emissions were from transportation, 30% from the generation of electric power, and 16%, 7% and 5% from on-site consumption of fossil fuels by industrial, residential and commercial buildings, respectively. Electric power generation served industrial, residential and commercial buildings roughly equally.

What fossil fuels are being burned?

Transportation is dominated by petroleum products, or oil – think gasoline and diesel fuel.

Nationwide, power plants consume roughly equal fractions of coal and natural gas. Natural gas use has been increasing and coal decreasing in this sector, with this trend driven by the rapid expansion of the shale gas industry in the U.S.

U.S. forests are removing CO₂ from the atmosphere, but not rapidly enough to offset human emissions. U.S. forests removed and stored about 920 million metric tons of CO₂ in 2022.

How US CO₂ emissions have changed

Emissions from the U.S. peaked around 2005 at 6,217 million metric tons of CO2. Since then, emissions have been decreasing slowly, largely driven by the replacement of coal by natural gas in electricity production.

Some additional notable trends will impact the future:

First, the U.S. economy has become more energy efficient over time, increasing productivity while decreasing emissions.

Second, solar and wind energy generation, while still a modest fraction of total energy production, has grown steadily in recent years and emits essentially no CO₂ into the atmosphere. If the nation increasingly relies on renewable energy sources and reduces burning of fossil fuels, it will dramatically reduce its CO₂ emissions.

Solar and wind energy became cheaper as a new energy source than natural gas and coal, but the Trump administration is cutting federal support for renewable energy and is doubling down on subsidies for fossil fuels. The growth of data centers is also expected to increase demand for electricity. How the U.S. meets that demand will impact national CO₂ emissions in future years.

How US emissions compare globally

The U.S. ranked second in CO₂ emissions worldwide in 2022, behind China, which emitted about 12,000 million metric tons of CO₂. China’s annual CO₂ emissions surpassed U.S. emissions in 2005 or 2006.

Added up over time, however, the U.S. has emitted more CO₂ into the atmosphere than any other nation, and we still emit more CO₂ per person than most other industrialized nations. Chinese and European emissions are both roughly half of U.S. emissions on a per capita basis.

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere mix evenly around the globe, so emissions from industrialized nations affect the climate in developing countries that have benefited very little from the energy created by burning fossil fuels.

The takeaway

There have been some promising downward trends in U.S. CO₂ emissions and upward trends in renewable energy sources, but political winds and increasing energy demands threaten progress in reducing emissions.

Reducing emissions in all sectors is needed to slow and eventually stop the rise of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The world has the technological means to make large reductions in emissions. CO₂ emitted into the atmosphere today lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The decisions we make today will influence the Earth’s climate for a very long time.

About the Author:

Kenneth J. Davis, Professor of Atmospheric and Climate Science, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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