Opinions

Archive for Opinions – Page 22

For America’s 35M small businesses, tariff uncertainty hits especially hard

By Peter Boumgarden, Washington University in St. Louis and Dilawar Syed, The University of Texas at Austin

Imagine it’s April 2025 and you’re the owner of a small but fast-growing e-commerce business. Historically, you’ve sourced products from China, but the president just announced tariffs of 145% on these goods. Do you set up operations in Thailand – requiring new investment and a lot of work – or wait until there’s more clarity on trade? What if waiting too long means you miss your chance to pull it off?

This isn’t a hypothetical – it’s a real dilemma faced by a real business owner who spoke with one of us over coffee this past spring. And she’s not alone. As of 2023, of those U.S. companies that import goods, more than 97% of them were small businesses. For these companies, tariff uncertainty isn’t just frustrating – it’s paralyzing.

As a family business researcher and former deputy administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration and entrepreneur, we hear from a lot of small-business owners grappling with these challenges. And what they tell us is that tariff uncertainty is stressing their time, resources and attention.

The data backs up our anecdotal experience: More than 70% of small-business owners say constant shifts in trade policy create a “whiplash effect” that makes it difficult to plan, a recent national survey showed.

Unlike larger organizations with teams of analysts to inform their decision-making, small-business owners are often on their own. In an all-hands-on-deck operation, every hour spent focusing on trade policy news or filling out additional paperwork means precious time away from day-to-day, core operations. That means rapid trade policy shifts leave small businesses especially at a disadvantage.

Planning for stability in an uncertain landscape

Critics and supporters alike can agree: The Trump administration has taken an unpredictable approach to trade policy, promising and delaying new tariffs again and again. Consider its so-called “reciprocal” tariffs. Back in April, Trump pledged a baseline 10% tariff on imports from nearly everywhere, with extra hikes on many countries. Not long afterward, it hit pause on its plans for 90 days. That period just ended, and the administration followed up with a new executive order on July 31 naming different tariff rates for about 70 countries. The one constant has been change.

Bloomberg TV covers the administration’s “surprise announcements” on trade the day before a key self-imposed deadline.

This approach has upended long-standing trade relationships in a matter of days or weeks. And regardless of the outcomes, the uncertainty itself is especially disruptive to small businesses. One recent survey of 4,000 small-business owners found that the biggest challenge of tariff policies is the sheer uncertainty they cause.

This isn’t just a problem for small-business owners themselves. These companies employ nearly half of working Americans and play an essential role in the U.S. economy. That may partly explain why Americans overwhelmingly support small businesses, viewing them as positive for society and a key path for achieving the American dream. If you’re skeptical, just look at the growing number of MBA graduates who are turning down offers at big companies to buy and run small businesses.

But this consensus doesn’t always translate into policies that help small businesses thrive. In fact, because small businesses often operate on thinner margins and have less capacity to absorb disruptions, any policy shift is likely to be more difficult for them to weather than it would be for a larger firm with deeper pockets. The ongoing tariff saga is just the most recent example.

Slow, steady policies help small-business owners

Given these realities, we recommend the final negotiated changes to trade policy be rolled out slowly. Although that wouldn’t prevent businesses from facing supply chain disruptions, it would at least give them time to consider alternate suppliers or prepare in other ways. From the perspective of a small-business owner, having that space to plan can make a real difference.

Similarly, if policymakers want to bring more manufacturing back to the U.S., tariffs alone can accomplish only so much. Small manufacturers need to hire people, and with unemployment at just over 4%, there’s already a shortage of workers qualified for increasingly high-skilled manufacturing roles.

Making reshoring a true long-term policy objective would require creating pathways for legal immigration and investing significantly in job training. And if the path toward reshoring is more about automation than labor, then preparing small-business owners for the changes ahead and helping them fund growth strategically will be crucial.

Small businesses would benefit from more government-backed funding and training. The Small Business Administration is uniquely positioned to support small firms as they adjust their supply chains and manufacturing – it could offer affordable financing for imports and exports, restructure existing loans that small businesses have had to take on, and offer technical support and education on new regulations and paperwork. Unfortunately, the SBA has slashed 43% of its workforce and closed offices in major cities including Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, New Orleans and Los Angeles. We think this is a step in the wrong direction.

Universities also have an important role to play in supporting small businesses. Research shows that teaching core management skills can improve key business outcomes, such as profitability and growth. We recommend business and trade schools increase their focus on small firms and the unique challenges they face. Whether through executive programs for small-business owners or student consulting projects, universities have a significant opportunity to lean into supporting Main Street entrepreneurs.

Thirty-five million small businesses are the engine of the U.S. economy. They are the job creators in cities and towns across this country. They are the heartbeat of American communities. As the nation undergoes rapid and profound policy shifts, we encourage leaders in government and academia to take action to ensure that Main Streets across America not only endure but thrive.

The authors would like to thank Gretchen Abraham and Matt Sonneborn for their support.

About the Author:

Peter Boumgarden, Professor of Family Enterprise, Washington University in St. Louis and Dilawar Syed, Associate Professor of Instruction, Department of Business, Government and Society, The University of Texas at Austin

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News

13 Aug

My research team used 18 years of sea wave records to learn how destructive ‘rogue waves’ form – here’s what we found

By Francesco Fedele, Georgia Institute of Technology

Rogue waves have captivated the attention of both seafarers and scientists for decades. These are giant, isolated waves that appear suddenly in the open ocean.

These puzzling giants are brief, typically lasting less than a minute before disappearing. They can reach heights of 65 feet (20 meters) or greater and often more than twice the height of surrounding waves. Once a nautical myth, rogue waves have now been observed around the world. Because they’re so tall and powerful, they can pose a danger to ships and offshore structures.

To rethink what rogue waves are and what causes them, I gathered an international team of researchers. Our study, published in Nature Scientific Reports, sheds light on these oceanic giants using the most comprehensive dataset of its kind.

By analyzing 18 years of high-frequency laser measurements from the Ekofisk oil platform in the central North Sea, we reached the surprising conclusion that rogue waves aren’t just freak occurrences. They arise under the natural laws of the sea. They are not mysterious, but somewhat simple.

27,500 sea states

We analyzed nearly 27,500 half-hour wave records, or sea states, collected between 2003 and 2020 in the central North Sea. These records, taken every 30 minutes, describe how elevated the sea surface was compared to the average sea level. They include major storms, such as the Andrea wave event in 2007.

Several structures standing in the sea. — A complex of platforms on the Ekofisk oil field in the North Sea.
BoH/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Under normal conditions, waves arise from wind blowing over the sea surface. It’s like when you blow over your cup of coffee and form small ripples on the surface. At sea, with enough time and space, those ripples can turn into large waves.

We focused on understanding what causes waves to suddenly go rogue and rise far above their neighboring waves. One proposed theory is based on modulational instability, a phenomenon described by complex mathematical models. I’ve revised these models in the past, as my work suggests that this theory doesn’t fully explain what causes rogue waves in the open ocean.

A diagram showing the height of waves in different sea states, with the tallest reaching about half the height of a large commercial boat. — Sea states record the height of waves and show when some waves rise high above sea level.
U.S. Government Accountability Office

When waves are trapped within a narrow channel, the modulational instability theory describes their rippling movement well. However, it starts to fall apart when you look at the real ocean. In open environments such as the North Sea, waves are free to propagate from multiple directions.

To understand the difference, imagine a crowd of spectators leaving a stadium after a football game. If the exit is a long, narrow hallway with tall walls, people are forced to move in a single direction. Those at the back push forward, and some may even climb over others, piling up between the confining walls. This catastrophic pileup would resemble a rogue wave, caused by their confinement.

In contrast, if the stadium’s exit opens onto a wide field, spectators can disperse freely in all directions. They don’t push on each other, and they avoid pileups.

Similarly, researchers can generate rogue waves in a confined channel in the lab, where they obey modulational instability. But without the confinement of a channel, rogue waves usually won’t follow those physics or form the same way in the open sea.

Our team knew we had to study the open sea directly to figure out what was really going on. The real-world data my team examined from the North Sea doesn’t line up with modulational instability – it tells a different story.

It’s just a bad day at sea

We analyzed the sea state records using statistical techniques to uncover patterns behind these rare events. Our findings show that instead of modulational instability, the extreme waves observed more likely formed through a process called constructive interference.

Constructive interference happens when two or more waves line up and combine into one big wave. This effect is amplified by the natural asymmetry of sea waves – their crests are typically sharper and steeper than their flatter troughs.

Rogue waves form when lots of smaller waves line up and their steeper crests begin to stack, building up into a single, massive wave that briefly rises far above its surroundings. All it takes for a peaceful boat ride to turn into a bad day at sea is a moment when many ordinary waves converge and stack.

These rogue waves rise and fall in less than a minute, following what’s called a quasi-deterministic pattern in space and time. This type of pattern is recognizable and repeatable, but with touches of randomness. In an idealized ocean, that randomness would almost vanish, allowing rogue waves to grow to nearly infinite heights. But it would also take an eternity to witness one of these waves, since so many would have to line up perfectly. Like waiting for Fortuna, the goddess of chance, to roll a trillion dice and have nearly all of them land on the same number.

In the real ocean, nature limits how large a rogue wave can grow thanks to wave breaking. As the wave rises in height and energy, it can’t hold itself beyond a certain point of no return. The tip of the wave spills over and breaks into foam, or whitecap, releasing the excess energy.

The quasi-deterministic pattern behind rogue waves

Rogue waves aren’t limited to the sea. Constructive interference can happen to many types of waves. A general theory called the quasi-determinism of waves, developed by oceanographer Paolo Boccotti, explains how rogue waves form, both in the ocean and in other wave systems.

For example, for turbulent water flowing through a confined channel, a rogue wave manifests in the form of an intense, short-lived spike in vortices – patterns of spinning swirls in the water that momentarily grow larger as they move downstream.

While ocean waves seem unpredictable, Boccotti’s theory shows that extreme waves are not completely random. When a really big wave forms, the waves in the sea around it follow a recognizable pattern formed through constructive interference.

We applied Boccotti’s theory to identify and characterize these patterns in the measured North Sea wave records.

The giant waves observed in these records carry a kind of signature or fingerprint, in the form of a wave group, which can reveal how the rogue wave came to life. Think of a wave group like a small package of waves moving together. They rise, peak and then fade away through constructive interference. Tracking these wave groups allows researchers to understand the bigger picture of a rogue event as it unfolds.

As one example, a powerful storm hit the North Sea on Nov. 24, 2023. A camera at the Ekofisk platform captured a massive 55 foot (17 meter) rogue wave. I applied the theory of quasi-determinism and an AI model to investigate the origin of this extreme wave. My analysis revealed that the rogue event followed these theories – quasi-determinism and constructive interference – and came from multiple smaller waves repeatedly stacking together.

Left: Stereo video footage of a powerful storm in the North Sea on Nov. 24, 2023, recorded at the Ekofisk platform.
Right: The wave group signature of the recorded rogue wave.

Recognizing how rogue waves form can help engineers and designers build safer ships and offshore platforms – and better predict risks.

About the Author:

Francesco Fedele, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

13 Aug

Global stocks rally on Fed easing hopes

By ForexTime

US500 & NAS100 hit fresh all-time highs
In-line US inflation boosts Fed cut bets, September cut priced in
USDInd tumbles below 98.00, USD down against all G10
GBPUSD trades higher ahead of upcoming UK GDP data

Equities across the globe extended gains on Wednesday as mounting Fed cuts stimulated appetite for risk assets.

The US annual inflation rate held steady at 2.7% in July, defying expectations of a tariff-induced rise to 2.8%. This essentially sealed the deal for the Fed to cut rates in September and boosted the odds of another cut by October to 60%.

Markets are buzzing with activity:

The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 surged to fresh all-time highs.
FXTM’s USDInd tumbled below 98.00 for the first time since late July.
Bitcoin rebounded back toward $120,000.
Gold prices stabilized above the 50-day SMA.

The risk-on rally has also been supported by:

President Donald Trump extending a trade truce with Beijing until 10 November.
Optimism over Trump-Putin talks leading to an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

USDInd set to extend losses?

The USD has depreciated against every single G10 currency this week, with the USDInd dipping below 98.00.

Prices are bearish with more soft data fuelling the downside. Much attention will be on the incoming US PPI, initial jobless claims, and speeches by Fed officials, which may provide further insight into Fed cuts.

Looking at the charts, the negative momentum may drag prices toward 97.00.

GBPUSD higher ahead of GDP

GBPUSD jumped as much as 100 pips yesterday after in-line US inflation readings weakened the dollar and boosted bets around the Fed cutting rates in September.

Sterling was already supported by the BoE’s hawkish rate cut last week and may see more volatility due to the incoming Q2 GDP report on Thursday.

A stronger-than-expected figure may boost confidence in the UK economy. If this reduces bets around the BoE cutting rates, the pound could rally.

A weaker-than-expected figure is likely to support the argument for lower UK interest rates, weakening the pound as a result.

Bullish: A solid breakout above the 50-day SMA may encourage a move toward 1.3600.
Bearish: Weakness below the 50-day SMA may trigger a decline toward 1.3415.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

13 Aug

A Big Fall Is Coming

Source: Barry Dawes (8/12/25)

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities shares his thoughts on the gold sector and one stock he is looking to buy back into.

Gold has not shown any strength here.

These are not bullish market actions.

Weakness is already showing with gold, down US$22 at the time of this article.

A big fall is coming.

An interesting EW view from @ElephantCapita2

Wave 4 correction coming.

Would give 160 on XAU, then new highs coming.

Wait for re-entry to our best big gold stocks.

North American Gold Stocks

This is one for the history books.

100% ratings here!

Too much enthusiasm here:

Here likely to pull back to at least 10. Up 70$ in 2025, and up 120% in 18 months.

Look to buy back into Northern Star Resources Ltd. (NST:ASX) below AU$13 sometime in September or October.

ASX Gold Sector

ASX gold index is back to 10,000.

There are too many gaps in the ASX gold index.

Head the markets!

Important Disclosures:

Barry Dawes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Metals Opinions

09 Aug

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (11,377 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (676 contracts) also seeing a small positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,275 contracts), the EuroFX (-7,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,237 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,466 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,343 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,987 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,874 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,742 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-493 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

Highlighting the currency speculator positioning this week, the Mexican peso saw the most bullish rise through August 5th. This was the third straight week the Peso has seen improving speculator sentiment, and the fifth time out of the last six weeks speculator positions have risen for the Peso. This increase in sentiment has brought the Peso positions to their highest level in 13 weeks, with the current standing now at a total of +68,055 contracts.

Peso pricing against the US Dollar this week rose by approximately 1.55%. Over the last 30 days, the Peso is up by 1.34%, while over the last 90 days, the Peso is higher by 10%.

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling speculator positions fell sharply for the fourth straight week. Overall, the British Pound speculator positions have now fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks, for a total decline over that time by -84,937 contracts. These speculator reductions have taken the overall speculator position from +42,857 contracts on June 17th to this week’s level of -33,303 contracts. The overall standing has now been in a negative or bearish position for two consecutive weeks, marking the first bearish level since February of this year.

Denting the GBP’s speculator sentiment was the Bank of England’s interest rate reduction this week that took off 25 basis points. It was the fifth rate reduction since last August and brings the interest rate to 4%.

Prices this week: Bitcoin leads with 2.82% Gain

Overall, Bitcoin saw the highest weekly change with a gain of almost 3% over the last five days. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin is up by nearly 40%.

The Brazilian Real rose by 2.32% this week, followed by the Peso. The British Pound Sterling rose close to 1.5% for the week, while the Australian Dollar saw a higher exchange rate by just about 1%. The New Zealand Dollar increased by 0.68%. The Euro was higher by 0.63%. Rounding out the gaining currencies was the Canadian Dollar, with a quarter of a percent gain on the week.

Losing ground this week was the Japanese Yen, which fell about a quarter percent. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.39%, and the US Dollar index was down by half a percent on the week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Euro

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Euro (73 percent) and the Japanese Yen (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (65 percent), Mexican Peso (63 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the British Pound (17 percent) and the Australian Dollar (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.4 percent)
EuroFX (72.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (58.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.0 percent)
Bitcoin (20.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (1.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-32.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-26.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	39.4	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.3	21.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-7,030	5,365	1,665
– Gross Longs:	11,399	11,847	4,540
– Gross Shorts:	18,429	6,482	2,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.1	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-2.9	32.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	75.4	5.5
– Net Position:	115,959	-163,545	47,586
– Gross Longs:	247,357	453,569	92,215
– Gross Shorts:	131,398	617,114	44,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	25.5	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	0.3	-11.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	52.8	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	37.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-33,303	32,643	660
– Gross Longs:	65,635	108,854	29,306
– Gross Shorts:	98,938	76,211	28,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	77.4	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.2	31.7	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.5	40.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.4	9.5
– Net Position:	82,006	-87,341	5,335
– Gross Longs:	160,258	136,734	37,362
– Gross Shorts:	78,252	224,075	32,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	28.9	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.2	-22.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	75.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	34.3	22.3
– Net Position:	-27,377	33,113	-5,736
– Gross Longs:	6,806	60,532	12,062
– Gross Shorts:	34,183	27,419	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	53.5	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	20.1	-25.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -79,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	72.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.9	33.2	12.9
– Net Position:	-79,420	84,877	-5,457
– Gross Longs:	23,589	156,289	22,218
– Gross Shorts:	103,009	71,412	27,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	49.6	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	14.6	-23.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	67.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.6	17.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-83,560	82,545	1,015
– Gross Longs:	23,988	110,361	21,761
– Gross Shorts:	107,548	27,816	20,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	79.1	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.2	-2.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	44.9	10.6
– Net Position:	-4,833	6,159	-1,326
– Gross Longs:	11,085	27,755	3,780
– Gross Shorts:	15,918	21,596	5,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	41.1	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	11.3	-30.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.7	36.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.7	1.7
– Net Position:	68,055	-71,691	3,636
– Gross Longs:	105,231	63,351	6,628
– Gross Shorts:	37,176	135,042	2,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	37.4	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-8.2	-4.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	36.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	67.8	1.1
– Net Position:	24,598	-27,830	3,232
– Gross Longs:	51,209	32,730	4,179
– Gross Shorts:	26,611	60,560	947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	34.3	39.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	16.3	-1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.6	6.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	89.0	1.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,501	1,195	306
– Gross Longs:	23,039	1,660	1,460
– Gross Shorts:	24,540	465	1,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	83.2	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-11.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

09 Aug

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Nasdaq & Palladium lead Top Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in at the top of the most extreme standings this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 5,854 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,860 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 27 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 33,836 net contracts this week with a small decrease of -1,118 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position takes the next position in the extreme standings this week with the Palladium speculator level sitting at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 16 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,335 net contracts this week with a drop of -482 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position slides in next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 86 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -228,367 net contracts this week with a reduction of -11,554 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week with the Sugar speculator level residing at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -76,972 net contracts this week with a reduction by -14,824 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in also tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,536,877 net contracts this week with a decline of -24,994 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position also comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the USD Index speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -7,030 net contracts this week with a drop of -2,874 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Next, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fourth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is currently at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -43 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 141,829 net contracts this week with a reduction of -14,194 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fifth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge lower by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -81,610 net contracts this week with a small increase of 1,061 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

06 Aug

The Nuclear Revolution Awaits

Source: Stephen McBride (8/6/25)

Stephen McBride of The Rational Optimist shares his thoughts on how nuclear energy can be reshaped.

A tiny uranium pellet the size of a gummy bear holds energy matching 140 oil barrels. It’s humanity’s most environmentally friendly, secure power resource.

Every legitimate expert acknowledges this fact.

So what’s preventing universal nuclear implementation?

In brief: We smothered brilliance with bureaucracy. Since the 70s, constructing new facilities has practically been prohibited in America. It demanded $30 billion plus 15+ years battling regulatory obstacles.

I’ve got exciting updates. During my recent visits to Austin and Detroit, I connected with top-tier nuclear innovators. I’ve known these innovators for some time and consider many friends. They unanimously shared something unprecedented:

“Regulation is finally becoming a solved problem.”

One entrepreneur mentioned his microreactor (a small nuclear reactor or “SMR”) could become operational within a year.

This represents massive progress! We’re developing an extensive analysis about SMRs and approximately twelve startups racing to launch one. More information coming soon.

Today, let’s examine remaining nuclear “challenges.” What about waste management? And fuel acquisition? We’ll explore entrepreneurs tackling both issues.

First, a quick overview of major regulatory shifts.

In 1974, a bureaucratic entity called the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) emerged. Guess how many innovative reactor designs it’s approved since inception?

None!

Just two reactors have begun commercial operations during the NRC’s existence, compared to 133 beforehand.

We’re finally addressing this imbalance. The President has authorized four executive directives to accelerate nuclear development. These orders initiate five significant changes:

Change 1: They establish a target of expanding America’s nuclear capacity fourfold by 2050.

Change 2: They accelerate “advanced nuclear” development (specifically small modular reactors or “SMRs”) through test programs and expedited environmental assessments. They mandate the NRC to authorize new reactors within 18 months.

Change 3: They instruct the Department of Energy (DoE) to sanction at least three reactors before mid-2026. Essentially, Trump wants three SMRs functioning for America’s 250th anniversary.

Change 4: They classify nuclear facilities powering AI operations as “defense-critical infrastructure.” Constructing nuclear-powered computing centers on military installations creates a brilliant workaround. It potentially enables projects to bypass lengthy NRC evaluations.

Change 5: Most crucially in my assessment: They request the NRC to reconsider its “As Low as Reasonably Achievable” (ALARA) regulation. You experience more radiation consuming a single banana than living beside a nuclear plant for twelve months. Yet under ALARA guidelines, even that isn’t considered sufficiently safe!

This “zero banana rule” has effectively prohibited nuclear construction in America. I believe the President should have commanded the NRC to eliminate this rule completely. Nevertheless, this represents advancement.

Nuclear entrepreneurs have anticipated this opportunity throughout their careers.

As Matt Loszak, founder of Aalo Atomics said, “We just have to wait for the executive orders to be implemented and we’re off to the races.”

In Detroit, Valar Atomics founder Isaiah Taylor said. . .

“The problem is no longer in the policy side. It’s now in the engineering side.”

One engineering challenge involves fuel acquisition.

*Stephen with Valar Atomics founder Isaiah Taylor*

Fuel access concerned many entrepreneurs I encountered. Even if prepared to activate their microreactors immediately, many would face obstacles. They lack necessary fuel.

How did this happen? Because America regulated its domestic nuclear fuel sector into extinction, surrendering supply chain control to Russia and China. This scenario mirrors what occurred with drone technology.

Converting uranium from extraction to reactor-ready involves four fundamental stages:

Mining. Organizations like Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) (Canada) mine uranium in locations including Canada, Kazakhstan, Australia, Namibia, Niger, and Russia. These six nations produce over 85% of global uranium. Raw materials undergo processing into a substance called yellowcake.

Conversion. Yellowcake undergoes milling and conversion into uranium hexafluoride (UF6) enabling gasification for enrichment. Orano (France) and Rosatom (Russia) dominate over 50% of this market.
Enrichment. Nuclear “gas” undergoes enrichment through centrifugal spinning. Three corporations, Urenco (European consortium), Orano, and Rosatom control the enrichment market.
Fuel creation. Companies including Westinghouse (U.S.) and Framatome (France) compress and heat enriched uranium powder into solid ceramic pieces.

America possesses abundant underground uranium reserves. However, excessive regulation has minimized processing capabilities.

By 2023, 99% of fuel utilized in U.S. reactors was imported — with substantial quantities from Russia.

Meet innovators addressing this crisis . . .

Scott Nolan, partner at Peter Thiel’s investment firm Founders Fund, was among earliest backers of Radiant Nuclear, a venture developing portable microreactors. But Radiant encountered a major obstacle: fuel scarcity.

Specifically, limited access to high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), premium uranium ideal for powering most microreactors.

Only Russia and China manufacture HALEU at scale. However, the U.S. plans to prohibit Russian uranium imports starting 2028. Leaving China — an unpredictable trade partner.

Accessing HALEU in America resembles Soviet-era bread queues. The DoE maintains limited reserves. Entrepreneurs must complete paperwork, endure months-long waits, and hope for allocations – merely to test prototypes. “Please sir, can I have some more?”

Scott Nolan established General Matter to produce HALEU fuel and revitalize America’s enrichment industry.

Meeting Scott at Detroit’s Reindustrialize summit, he shared “I spent over a year at Founders Fund searching for an American enrichment company to invest in, only to find there wasn’t one. So, we built our own.”

General Matter assembled elite professionals from organizations including SpaceX, Tesla, Anduril, and several American national nuclear laboratories. It was among four companies selected by the DoE to initiate American HALEU production.

If General Matter succeeds, it will achieve for uranium enrichment what SpaceX accomplished for rocketry: restore American competitiveness.

J.D. Rockefeller amassed historic wealth through Standard Oil.

Not through oil drilling. But by controlling the supply chain’s most valuable component: crude refinement.

Standard Nuclear aims to replicate this for nuclear energy. Its mission: become a scalable, affordable, entirely American nuclear fuel provider — the nuclear industry’s Standard Oil.

HALEU, optimal fuel for next-generation reactors, often comes encased in ceramic protection called TRISO, maintaining fuel density and safety.

TRISO appears as indestructible billiard ball-sized spheres. Each contains sufficient energy to power thousands of households.

TRISO resists melting. It prevents leakage. It contains radioactivity internally, even during extreme accidents. That’s why the DoE designates it Earth’s most robust nuclear fuel. Even the NRC acknowledges it as ‘functional containment.’

One entrepreneur described TRISO’s remarkable properties: “You know those giant concrete containment domes that surround old reactors in case something goes wrong? With TRISO, we’ve basically engineered the dome into every single fuel particle.”

TRISO provides microreactors with clean, compact, uninterrupted power, eliminating meltdown risks and massive containment structures.

China recently conducted safety testing by deactivating a nuclear reactor’s cooling system. The TRISO-powered reactor absorbed heat. The core cooled naturally. No alternative nuclear fuel demonstrates this capability.

Predictably, China remains the sole nation producing significant TRISO quantities.

Standard Nuclear will help America catch up.

Standard Nuclear represents genuine innovation. The company emerged following another company’s bankruptcy after its primary investor died. The team was commercializing TRISO, previously produced exclusively in America’s national laboratories.

Following the investor’s death, their commitment remained so strong that over 40 employees continued working approximately eight months without compensation. Some sold homes or downsized to maintain operations.

Their perseverance succeeded. In 2024, the organization reemerged as Standard Nuclear with $42 million in funding.

Standard Nuclear operates from Oak Ridge, Tennessee, formerly known as “Atomic City,” where Manhattan Project uranium enrichment occurred. It currently represents the largest TRISO manufacturing facility outside China.

Standard Nuclear recently secured $5 million in contracts and established offtake agreements exceeding $100 million with microreactor ventures including Radiant, Antares, and

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE:NASDAQ).

“ROS never addresses the problem of nuclear waste storage.”

ROS Member John D highlighted this omission. Let me correct this.

Imagining radioactive material seeping from corroded containers seems frightening. Reality shows nuclear waste represents a resolved challenge. Innovators are transforming it into another opportunity.

Fundamentals: All nuclear waste ever generated throughout America — spanning 60 years — would occupy a single football field, stacked under 20 feet high.

Atomic byproducts have never harmed any American. Spent materials remain securely stored in sealed containers across 60+ locations throughout 34 states.

Why merely store it? SMR startups are creating reactors utilizing waste.

Oklo Inc.’s (OKLO:NYSE) Aurora microreactor, compact enough for a spacious living room, converts used fuel into fresh energy. Like automobiles running on exhaust fumes!

The most frustrating aspect regarding nuclear waste “problems” involves ignoring existing solutions for 60 years. Argonne National Laboratory constructed reactors capable of recycling nuclear waste into fuel during the 1960s!

Why isn’t fuel recycling standard practice? Blame political decisions. President Carter suspended reprocessing during the 1970s. Reagan reversed the prohibition, but companies had already pivoted elsewhere.

Consider Deep Isolation. I recently spoke with CEO Rod Baltzer. His company developed a methodology for permanently securing nuclear waste underground, utilizing directional drilling technology and their Universal Canister System.

Deep Isolation drills tunnels approximately pizza-box width into solid rock formations, reaching three miles beneath surface level. The tunnel’s bottom curves, creating an L-shaped pathway. They then insert sealed, corrosion-resistant containers filled with nuclear waste, designed for millennial timeframes.

Deep Isolation ensures waste disappears safely, permanently, and economically.

The genuine threat isn’t nuclear waste. It’s unrealized nuclear facilities, leaving us dependent on dirtier energy alternatives. Innovators are transforming perceived problems into productive power solutions.

Envision July 4, 2026. . .

We’re celebrating America’s 250th anniversary. The initial three microreactors operate on American soil. These engineered marvels generate clean, safe, “constantly available” energy.

After meeting numerous nuclear entrepreneurs, I recognize their determination toward this objective. Teams sleep in production facilities. Engineers work 18-hour shifts. Founders dedicate their lives toward achieving that July 2026 milestone.

America’s prosperous future requires expanded energy access, not reduction. Remember: Rich, low-energy nations don’t exist.

In 1973 President Nixon proposed establishing 1,000 nuclear power plants before 2000. Better delayed than abandoned.

With 1,000 microreactors distributed across America, we could desalinate seawater and transform arid deserts into fertile land. Following hurricanes, mobile reactors could deploy, powering medical facilities and water systems within hours.

Building this future depends on communities nationwide embracing nuclear technology.

That’s where your role begins. Demonstrate to friends and relatives that nuclear represents our cleanest, safest energy resource. Challenge misinformed opposition.

Address questions resembling this inquiry: “What might terrorists accomplish capturing a microreactor?” Simple answer: they’d have years of clean energy, but concerns about weaponization are unfounded.

Perhaps most importantly, share nuclear innovation stories with younger generations! The Second Nuclear Age will create talent shortages. It requires engineers, technicians, machinists, and policy advocates.

The primary career aspiration among children today is… social media influencer. Disappointing. Let’s transform that to nuclear engineer!

At the Rational Optimist Society, we’re embracing nuclear technology and much more. We help our members understand, appreciate, and take advantage of the innovations revolutionizing our world for the better, so they can confidently flourish as change continues to accelerate.

You can join us here.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Cameco Corp.
Stephen McBride: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Energy Opinions

01 Aug

Urban trees vs. cool roofs: What’s the best way for cities to beat the heat?

By Ian Smith, Boston University and Lucy Hutyra, Boston University

When summer turns up the heat, cities can start to feel like an oven, as buildings and pavement trap the sun’s warmth and vehicles and air conditioners release more heat into the air.

The temperature in an urban neighborhood with few trees can be more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit (5.5 Celsius) higher than in nearby suburbs. That means air conditioning works harder, straining the electrical grid and leaving communities vulnerable to power outages.

There are some proven steps that cities can take to help cool the air – planting trees that provide shade and moisture, for example, or creating cool roofs that reflect solar energy away from the neighborhood rather than absorbing it.

But do these steps pay off everywhere?

We study heat risk in cities as urban ecologists and have been exploring the impact of tree-planting and reflective roofs in different cities and different neighborhoods across cities. What we’re learning can help cities and homeowners be more targeted in their efforts to beat the heat.

Trees like these in Boston can help keep neighborhoods cooler on hot days.
Yassine Khalfalli/Unsplash, CC BY

The wonder of trees

Urban trees offer a natural defense against rising temperatures. They cast shade and release water vapor through their leaves, a process akin to human sweating. That cools the surrounding air and reduces afternoon heat.

Adding trees to city streets, parks and residential yards can make a meaningful difference in how hot a neighborhood feels, with blocks that have tree canopies nearly 3 F (1.7 C) cooler than blocks without trees.

Two maps of New York City show how vegetation matches cooler areas by temperature. — Comparing maps of New York’s vegetation and temperature shows the cooling effect of parks and neighborhoods with more trees. In the map on the left, lighter colors are areas with fewer trees. Light areas in the map on the right are hotter.
NASA/USGS Landsat

But planting trees isn’t always simple.

In hot, dry cities, trees often require irrigation to survive, which can strain already limited water resources. Trees must survive for decades to grow large enough to provide shade and release enough water vapor to reduce air temperatures.

Annual maintenance costs – about US$900 per tree per year in Boston – can surpass the initial planting investment.

Most challenging of all, dense urban neighborhoods where heat is most intense are often too packed with buildings and roads to grow more trees.

How cool roofs can help on hot days

Another option is “cool roofs.” Coating rooftops with reflective paint or using light-colored materials allows buildings to reflect more sunlight back into the atmosphere rather than absorbing it as heat.

These roofs can lower the temperature inside an apartment building without air conditioning by about 2 to 6 F (1 to 3.3 C), and can cut peak cooling demand by as much as 27% in air-conditioned buildings, one study found. They can also provide immediate relief by reducing outdoor temperatures in densely populated areas. The maintenance costs are also lower than expanding urban forests.

However, like trees, cool roofs come with limits. Cool roofs work better on flat roofs than sloped roofs with shingles, as flat roofs are often covered by heat-trapping rubber and are exposed to more direct sunlight over the course of an afternoon.

Cities also have a finite number of rooftops that can be retrofitted. And in cities that already have many light-colored roofs, a few more might help lower cooling costs in those buildings, but they won’t do much more for the neighborhood.

By weighing the trade-offs of both strategies, cities can design location-specific plans to beat the heat.

Choosing the right mix of cooling solutions

Many cities around the world have taken steps to adapt to extreme heat, with tree planting and cool roof programs that implement reflectivity requirements or incentivize cool roof adoption.

In Detroit, nonprofit organizations have planted more than 166,000 trees since 1989. In Los Angeles, building codes now require new residential roofs to meet specific reflectivity standards.

In a recent study, we analyzed Boston’s potential to lower heat in vulnerable neighborhoods across the city. The results demonstrate how a balanced, budget-conscious strategy could deliver significant cooling benefits.

For example, we found that planting trees can cool the air 35% more than installing cool roofs in places where trees can actually be planted.

However, many of the best places for new trees in Boston aren’t in the neighborhoods that need help. In these neighborhoods, we found that reflective roofs were the better choice.

By investing less than 1% of the city’s annual operating budget, about US$34 million, in 2,500 new trees and 3,000 cool roofs targeting the most at-risk areas, we found that Boston could reduce heat exposure for nearly 80,000 residents. The results would reduce summertime afternoon air temperatures by over 1 F (0.6 C) in those neighborhoods.

While that reduction might seem modest, reductions of this magnitude have been found to dramatically reduce heat-related illness and death, increase labor productivity and reduce energy costs associated with building cooling.

Not every city will benefit from the same mix. Boston’s urban landscape includes many flat, black rooftops that reflect only about 12% of sunlight, making cool roofs that reflect over 65% of sunlight an especially effective intervention. Boston also has a relatively moist growing season that supports a thriving urban tree canopy, making both solutions viable.

Two aerial images show very different building coloring in two cities. — Phoenix, left, already has a lot of light-colored roots, compared with Boston, right, where roofs are mostly dark.
Imagery © Google 2025.

In places with fewer flat, dark rooftops suitable for cool roof conversion, tree planting may offer more value. Conversely, in cities with little room left for new trees or where extreme heat and drought limit tree survival, cool roofs may be the better bet.

Phoenix, for example, already has many light-colored roofs. Trees might be an option there, but they will require irrigation.

Getting the solutions where people need them

Adding shade along sidewalks can do double-duty by giving pedestrians a place to get out of the sun and cooling buildings. In New York City, for example, street trees account for an estimated 25% of the entire urban forest.

Cool roofs can be more difficult for a government to implement because they require working with building owners. That often means cities need to provide incentives. Louisville, Kentucky, for example, offers rebates of up to $2,000 for homeowners who install reflective roofing materials, and up to $5,000 for commercial businesses with flat roofs that use reflective coatings.

Two charts show improvements — In Boston, planting trees, left, and increasing roof reflectivity, right, were both found to be effective ways to cool urban areas.
Ian Smith et al. 2025

Efforts like these can help spread cool roof benefits across densely populated neighborhoods that need cooling help most.

As climate change drives more frequent and intense urban heat, cities have powerful tools for lowering the temperature. With some attention to what already exists and what’s feasible, they can find the right budget-conscious strategy that will deliver cooling benefits for everyone.

About the Author:

Ian Smith, Research Scientist in Earth & Environment, Boston University and Lucy Hutyra, Distinguished Professor & Chair of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

31 Jul

California farmers identify a hot new cash crop: Solar power

By Jacob Stid, Michigan State University; Annick Anctil, Michigan State University, and Anthony Kendall, Michigan State University

Imagine that you own a small, 20-acre farm in California’s Central Valley. You and your family have cultivated this land for decades, but drought, increasing costs and decreasing water availability are making each year more difficult.

Now imagine that a solar-electricity developer approaches you and presents three options:

You can lease the developer 10 acres of otherwise productive cropland, on which the developer will build an array of solar panels and sell electricity to the local power company.
You can select 1 or 2 acres of your land on which to build and operate your own solar array, using some electricity for your farm and selling the rest to the utility.
Or you can keep going as you have been, hoping your farm can somehow survive.

Thousands of farmers across the country, including in the Central Valley, are choosing one of the first two options. A 2022 survey by the U.S. Department of Agriculture found that roughly 117,000 U.S. farm operations have some type of solar device. Our own work has identified over 6,500 solar arrays currently located on U.S. farmland.

Our study of nearly 1,000 solar arrays built on 10,000 acres of the Central Valley over the past two decades found that solar power and farming are complementing each other in farmers’ business operations. As a result, farmers are making and saving more money while using less water – helping them keep their land and livelihood.

A hotter, drier and more built-up future

Perhaps nowhere in the U.S. is farmland more valuable or more productive than California’s Central Valley. The region grows a vast array of crops, including nearly all of the nation’s production of almonds, olives and sweet rice. Using less than 1% of all farmland in the country, the Central Valley supplies a quarter of the nation’s food, including 40% of its fruits, nuts and other fresh foods.

The food, fuel and fiber that these farms produce are a bedrock of the nation’s economy, food system and way of life.

But decades of intense cultivation, urban development and climate change are squeezing farmers. Water is limited, and getting more so: A state law passed in 2014 requires farmers to further reduce their water usage by the mid-2040s.

The trade-offs of installing solar on agricultural land

When the solar arrays we studied were installed, California state solar energy policy and incentives gave farm landowners new ways to diversify their income by either leasing their land for solar arrays or building their own.

There was an obvious trade-off: Turning land used for crops to land used for solar usually means losing agricultural production. We estimated that over the 25-year life of the solar arrays, this land would have produced enough food to feed 86,000 people a year, assuming they eat 2,000 calories a day.

There was an obvious benefit, too, of clean energy: These arrays produced enough renewable electricity to power 470,000 U.S. households every year.

But the result we were hoping to identify and measure was the economic effect of shifting that land from agricultural farming to solar farming. We found that farmers who installed solar were dramatically better off than those who did not.

They were better off in two ways, the first being financially. All the farmers, whether they owned their own arrays or leased their land to others, saved money on seeds, fertilizer and other costs associated with growing and harvesting crops. They also earned money from leasing the land, offsetting farm energy bills, and selling their excess electricity.

Farmers who owned their own arrays had to pay for the panels, equipment and installation, and maintenance. But even after covering those costs, their savings and earnings added up to US$50,000 per acre of profits every year, 25 times the amount they would have earned by planting that acre.

Farmers who leased their land made much less money but still avoided costs for irrigation water and operations on that part of their farm, gaining $1,100 per acre per year – with no up-front costs.

The farmers also conserved water, which in turn supported compliance with the state’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act water use reduction requirements. Most of the solar arrays were installed on land that had previously been irrigated. We calculated that turning off irrigation on this land saved enough water every year to supply about 27 million people with drinking water or irrigate 7,500 acres of orchards. Following solar array installation, some farmers also fallowed surrounding land, perhaps enabled by the new stable income stream, which further reduced water use.

Changes to food and energy production

Farmers in the Central Valley and elsewhere are now cultivating both food and energy. This shift can offer long-term security for farmland owners, particularly for those who install and run their own arrays.

Recent estimates suggest that converting between 1.1% and 2.4% of the country’s farmland to solar arrays would, along with other clean energy sources, generate enough electricity to eliminate the nation’s need for fossil fuel power plants.

Though many crops are part of a global market that can adjust to changes in supply, losing this farmland could affect the availability of some crops. Fortunately, farmers and landowners are finding new ways to protect farmland and food security while supporting clean energy.

One such approach is agrivoltaics, where farmers install solar designed for grazing livestock or growing crops beneath the panels. Solar can also be sited on less productive farmland or on farmland that is used for biofuels rather than food production.

Even in these areas, arrays can be designed and managed to benefit local agriculture and natural ecosystems. With thoughtful design, siting and management, solar can give back to the land and the ecosystems it touches.

Farms are much more than the land they occupy and the goods they produce. Farms are run by people with families, whose well-being depends on essential and variable resources such as water, fertilizer, fuel, electricity and crop sales. Farmers often borrow money during the planting season in hopes of making enough at harvest time to pay off the debt and keep a little profit.

Installing solar on their land can give farmers a diversified income, help them save water, and reduce the risk of bad years. That can make solar an asset to farming, not a threat to the food supply.

About the Authors:

Jacob Stid, Ph.D. student in Hydrogeology, Michigan State University; Annick Anctil, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, and Anthony Kendall, Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

31 Jul

Is the Bitcoin Cycle Dead?

Source: Stephen McBride (7/29/25)

Stephen McBride of RiskHedge shares his thoughts on the Bitcoin cycle, and what investors should really be paying attention to.

“3 up, 1 down.” This represents the historical rhythm that Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency values have typically followed.

We refer to it as the four-year cycle. It was a sequence so reliable, you could synchronize your timepiece to it, as demonstrated by this chart of Bitcoin’s yearly performance:

Numerous investors continue to operate according to this four-year framework. However, as I’ll demonstrate, the conventional four-year pattern has likely concluded, and that’s actually positive news.

January 11, 2024 . . .

The moment Bitcoin’s rhythm broke.

What occurred that day?

The initial Bitcoin ETFs commenced trading in the United States.

Bitcoin was previously a fringe asset. To acquire it, you needed to establish a cryptocurrency wallet, transfer your funds to a suspicious-looking exchange, and hope it remained secure. And incorporating it into your retirement portfolio was virtually impossible. Too complicated for most people.

Currently, you can purchase Bitcoin as straightforwardly as Apple Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ) or Tesla Inc. (TSLA:NASDAQ).

ETFs unlocked access to Wall Street capital. And funds rapidly streamed in. BlackRock, Inc.’s (BLK:NYSE) Bitcoin ETF — the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) — emerged as the fastest-expanding ETF ever. Within less than two years, $87 billion flowed into it. It represents the most successful ETF introduction in history, by a substantial margin. For context, the biggest gold ETF — the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) — has existed for over twenty years and manages $100 billion. I anticipate IBIT will exceed GLD within the coming months.

Hello, infinite bid. . .

The reality that anyone can easily purchase BTC and Ethereum (ETH) through an ETF has fundamentally altered cryptocurrency markets permanently.

The “infinite bid” from wealth administrators constitutes the most significant positive force in cryptocurrency’s existence.

Cryptocurrency is now substantially controlled by professional investors who are theoretically less susceptible to excessive speculation. Though I’ll share a secret: Many I’m familiar with remain impulsive gamblers.

This suggests the explosive peaks and devastating 80% collapses we’ve become accustomed to will likely transform into more consistent upward trends interrupted by less severe corrections.

The traditional four-year cycle has likely concluded, and that’s actually positive news. Less frenzied expansion. More sustainable growth. This shift mirrors financial market evolution. Early stock markets experienced complete panics every couple of years, while contemporary markets face crises every 20–30 years.

Cryptocurrency is following the same maturation trajectory, just compressed into a briefer timeframe.

This consistent influx of capital didn’t exist in cryptocurrency . . . at least until ETFs arrived.

When tens of millions of Americans receive paychecks biweekly, they invest in stocks through their retirement accounts and 401(k)s. This generates ongoing demand for stocks, which I’d suggest establishes a minimum price threshold.

Now, the planet’s largest asset managers — including BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, and others — are advising their clients to acquire and maintain BTC in their 401(k)s.

The barriers have collapsed. Billions of dollars of Wall Street capital are entering cryptocurrency for the first time ever. There’s $8 trillion allocated in 401(k) plans currently. If cryptocurrency captures merely 1% of 401(k) assets, that’s $80 billion in fresh money entering the market.

If you’re curious about our position in the Bitcoin cycle, you’re focusing on the wrong issue.

The more relevant question is: Which cryptocurrency asset will Wall Street target next?

Bitcoin was the first “legitimate” cryptocurrency that institutions could engage with. Everything else was too ambiguous. The regulatory uncertainty was excessive.

But that’s changing as well.

The current U.S. administration has made its stance clear. They intend to “make America the crypto capital of the world” (their words).

In recent weeks, Congress approved several pro-cryptocurrency bills that will provide the industry with essential regulatory clarity. Regulation has shifted from risk to opportunity. And now, the entire cryptocurrency space will become accessible to Wall Street. That’s driving investment currently.

Ethereum stands as the obvious successor.

It offers considerably more functionality than Bitcoin. It’s rapidly becoming the settlement foundation for a new global financial infrastructure.

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD:NASDAQ) is developing its tokenized stock platform on Ethereum. A selection of companies creating products on Ethereum includes: PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL:NASDAQ), Visa Inc. (V:NYSE), Stripe, Fidelity,JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM:NYSE), Mastercard Inc. (MA:NYSE), and Shopify Inc. (SHOP:NASDAQ).

Wall Street is finally recognizing this potential.

Inflows into ETH ETFs are accelerating exponentially.

From July 2024 to June 2025, a total of $4.2 billion entered these funds. This month alone (July 2025), witnessed $4.4 billion pour into the ETH ETFs! That indicates Wall Street is moving into cryptocurrency in a big way.

One final thing: the Bitcoin cycle may be dead, but the opportunity in crypto is very much alive. I’ll have more to say on emerging crypto developments in future issues of my twice-weekly investing letter The Jolt. If you’d like to join, you can sign up here.

Important Disclosures:

Stephen McBride: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own: Ethereum. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
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Cryptocurrencies Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Opinions – Page 22

Planning for stability in an uncertain landscape

Slow, steady policies help small-business owners

27,500 sea states

It’s just a bad day at sea

The quasi-deterministic pattern behind rogue waves

Equities across the globe extended gains on Wednesday as mounting Fed cuts stimulated appetite for risk assets.

USDInd set to extend losses?

GBPUSD higher ahead of GDP

Commitment of Trades in Gold

North American Gold Stocks

ASX Gold Sector

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

Prices this week: Bitcoin leads with 2.82% Gain

Currencies Data:

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Euro

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Nasdaq

Palladium

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

5-Year Bond

US Dollar Index

WTI Crude Oil

Soybean Meal

Envision July 4, 2026. . .

The wonder of trees

How cool roofs can help on hot days

Choosing the right mix of cooling solutions

Getting the solutions where people need them

A hotter, drier and more built-up future

The trade-offs of installing solar on agricultural land

Changes to food and energy production