Archive for Opinions – Page 22

AI helps tell snow leopards apart, improving population counts for these majestic mountain predators

By Eve Bohnett, University of Florida 

Snow leopards are known as the “ghosts of the mountains” for a reason. Imagine waiting for months in the harsh, rugged mountains of Asia, hoping to catch even a glimpse of one. These elusive big cats move silently across rocky slopes, their pale coats blending so seamlessly with snow and stone that even the most seasoned biologists seldom spot them in the wild.

Travel writer Peter Matthiessen spent two months in 1973 searching the Tibetan plateau for them and wrote a 300-page book about the effort. He never saw one. Forty years later, Peter’s son Alex retraced his father’s steps – and didn’t see one either.

Researchers have struggled to come up with a figure for the global population. In 2017, the International Union for Conservation of Nature reclassified the snow leopard from endangered to vulnerable, citing estimates of between 2,500 and 10,000 adults in the wild. However, the group also warned that numbers continue to decline in many areas due to habitat loss, poaching and human-wildlife conflict. Those who study these animals want to help protect the species and their habitat – if only we can determine exactly where they live and how many there are.

Traditional tracking methods – searching for footprints, droppings and other signs – have their limits. Instead of waiting for a lucky face-to-face encounter, conservationists from the Wildlife Conservation Society, led by experts including Stéphane Ostrowski and Sorosh Poya Faryabi, began deploying automated camera traps in Afghanistan. These devices snap photos whenever movement is detected, capturing thousands of images over months, all in hopes of obtaining a rare glimpse of a snow leopard.

But capturing images is only half the battle. The next, even harder task is telling one snow leopard apart from another.

Two images of snow leopards.
Are these the same animal or different ones? It’s really hard to tell.
Eve Bohnett, CC BY-ND

At first glance, it might sound simple: Each snow leopard has a unique pattern of black rosettes on its coat, like a fingerprint or a face in a crowd. Yet in practice, identifying individuals by these patterns is slow, subjective and prone to error. Photos may be taken at odd angles, under poor lighting, or with parts of the animal obscured – making matches tricky.

A common mistake happens when photos from different cameras are marked as depicting different animals when they actually show the same individual, inflating population estimates. Worse, camera trap images can get mixed up or misfiled, splitting encounters of one cat across multiple batches and identities.

I am a data analyst working with Wildlife Conservation Society and other partners at Wild Me. My work and others’ has found that even trained experts can misidentify animals, failing to recognize repeat visitors at locations monitored by motion-sensing cameras and counting the same animal more than once. One study found that the snow leopard population was overestimated by more than 30% because of these human errors.

To avoid these pitfalls, researchers follow camera sorting guidelines: At least three clear pattern differences or similarities must be confirmed between two images to declare them the same or different cats. Images too blurry, too dark or taken from difficult angles may have to be discarded. Identification efforts range from easy cases with clear, full-body shots to ambiguous ones needing collaboration and debate. Despite these efforts, variability remains, and more experienced observers tend to be more accurate.

Now people trying to count snow leopards are getting help from artificial intelligence systems, in two ways.

Spotting the spots

Modern AI tools are revolutionizing how we process these large photo libraries. First, AI can rapidly sort through thousands of images, flagging those that contain snow leopards and ignoring irrelevant ones such as those that depict blue sheep, gray-and-white mountain terrain, or shadows.

A snow leopard stands amid rocks.
Unique spots and spot patterns are key to telling snow leopards apart.
Eve Bohnett, CC BY-NC-ND

AI can identify individual snow leopards by analyzing their unique rosette patterns, even when poses or lighting vary. Each snow leopard encounter is compared with a catalog of previously identified photos and assigned a known ID if there is a match, or entered as a new individual if not.

In a recent study, several colleagues and I evaluated two AI algorithms, both separately and in tandem.

The first algorithm, called HotSpotter, identifies individual snow leopards by comparing key visual features such as coat patterns, highlighting distinctive “hot spots” with a yellow marker.

The second is a newer method called pose invariant embeddings, which operates similar to facial recognition technology: It recognizes layers of abstract features in the data, identifying the same animal regardless of how it is positioned in the photo or what kind of lighting there may be.

We trained these systems using a curated dataset of photos of snow leopards from zoos in the U.S., Europe and Tajikistan, and with images from the wild, including in Afghanistan.

Alone, each model worked about 74% of the time, correctly identifying the cat from a large photo library. But when combined, the two systems together were correct 85% of the time.

These algorithms were integrated into Wildbook, an open-source, web-based software platform developed by the nonprofit organization Wild Me and now adopted by ConservationX. We deployed the combined system on a free website, Whiskerbook.org, where researchers can upload images, seek matches using the algorithms, and confirm those matches with side-by-side comparisons. This site is among a growing family of AI-powered wildlife platforms that are helping conservation biologists work more efficiently and more effectively at protecting species and their habitats.

Two images of snow leopards, one in daylight and one in infrared light.
A view from an online wildlife-tracking system suggests a possible match for a snow leopard caught by a remote camera.
Wildbook/Eve Bohnett, CC BY-ND

Humans still needed

These AI systems aren’t error-proof. AI quickly narrows down candidates and flags likely matches, but expert validation ensures accuracy, especially with tricky or ambiguous photos.

Another study we conducted pitted AI-assisted groups of experts and novices against each other. Each was given a set of three to 10 images of 34 known captive snow leopards and asked to use the Whiskerbook platform to identify them. They were also asked to estimate how many individual animals were in the set of photos.

The experts accurately matched about 90% of the images and delivered population estimates within about 3% of the true number. In contrast, the novices identified only 73% of the cats and underestimated the total number, sometimes by 25% or more, incorrectly merging two individuals into one.

Both sets of results were better than when experts or novices did not use any software.

The takeaway is clear: Human expertise remains important, and combining it with AI support leads to the most accurate results. My colleagues and I hope that by using tools like Whiskerbook and the AI systems embedded in them, researchers will be able to more quickly and more confidently study these elusive animals.

With AI tools like Whiskerbook illuminating the mysteries of these mountain ghosts, we have another way to safeguard snow leopards – but success depends on continued commitment to protecting their fragile mountain homes.The Conversation

About the Author:

Eve Bohnett, Assistant Scholar, Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, University of Florida

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

What is vibe coding? A computer scientist explains what it means to have AI write computer code − and what risks that can entail

By Chetan Jaiswal, Quinnipiac University 

Whether you’re streaming a show, paying bills online or sending an email, each of these actions relies on computer programs that run behind the scenes. The process of writing computer programs is known as coding. Until recently, most computer code was written, at least originally, by human beings. But with the advent of generative artificial intelligence, that has begun to change.

Now, just as you can ask ChatGPT to spin up a recipe for a favorite dish or write a sonnet in the style of Lord Byron, you can now ask generative AI tools to write computer code for you. Andrej Karpathy, an OpenAI co-founder who previously led AI efforts at Tesla, recently termed this “vibe coding.”

For complete beginners or nontechnical dreamers, writing code based on vibes – feelings rather than explicitly defined information – could feel like a superpower. You don’t need to master programming languages or complex data structures. A simple natural language prompt will do the trick.

How it works

Vibe coding leans on standard patterns of technical language, which AI systems use to piece together original code from their training data. Any beginner can use an AI assistant such as GitHub Copilot or Cursor Chat, put in a few prompts, and let the system get to work. Here’s an example:

“Create a lively and interactive visual experience that reacts to music, user interaction or real-time data. Your animation should include smooth transitions and colorful and lively visuals with an engaging flow in the experience. The animation should feel organic and responsive to the music, user interaction or live data and facilitate an experience that is immersive and captivating. Complete this project using JavaScript or React, and allow for easy customization to set the mood for other experiences.”

But AI tools do this without any real grasp of specific rules, edge cases or security requirements for the software in question. This is a far cry from the processes behind developing production-grade software, which must balance trade-offs between product requirements, speed, scalability, sustainability and security. Skilled engineers write and review the code, run tests and establish safety barriers before going live.

But while the lack of a structured process saves time and lowers the skills required to code, there are trade-offs. With vibe coding, most of these stress-testing practices go out the window, leaving systems vulnerable to malicious attacks and leaks of personal data.

And there’s no easy fix: If you don’t understand every – or any – line of code that your AI agent writes, you can’t repair the code when it breaks. Or worse, as some experts have pointed out, you won’t notice when it’s silently failing.

The AI itself is not equipped to carry out this analysis either. It recognizes what “working” code usually looks like, but it cannot necessarily diagnose or fix deeper problems that the code might cause or exacerbate.

IBM computer scientist Martin Keen explains the difference between AI programming and traditional programming.

Why it matters

Vibe coding could be just a flash-in-the-pan phenomenon that will fizzle before long, but it may also find deeper applications with seasoned programmers. The practice could help skilled software engineers and developers more quickly turn an idea into a viable prototype. It could also enable novice programmers or even amateur coders to experience the power of AI, perhaps motivating them to pursue the discipline more deeply.

Vibe coding also may signal a shift that could make natural language a more viable tool for developing some computer programs. If so, it would echo early website editing systems known as WYSIWYG editors that promised designers “what you see is what you get,” or “drag-and-drop” website builders that made it easy for anyone with basic computer skills to launch a blog.

For now, I don’t believe that vibe coding will replace experienced software engineers, developers or computer scientists. The discipline and the art are much more nuanced than what AI can handle, and the risks of passing off “vibe code” as legitimate software are too great.

But as AI models improve and become more adept at incorporating context and accounting for risk, practices like vibe coding might cause the boundary between AI and human programmer to blur further.The Conversation

About the Author:

Chetan Jaiswal, Associate Professor of Computer Science, Quinnipiac University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

RNA has newly identified role: Repairing serious DNA damage to maintain the genome

By Francesca Storici, Georgia Institute of Technology 

Your DNA is continually damaged by sources both inside and outside your body. One especially severe form of damage called a double-strand break involves the severing of both strands of the DNA double helix.

Double-strand breaks are among the most difficult forms of DNA damage for cells to repair because they disrupt the continuity of DNA and leave no intact template to base new strands on. If misrepaired, these breaks can lead to other mutations that make the genome unstable and increase the risk of many diseases, including cancer, neurodegeneration and immunodeficiency.

Cells primarily repair double-strand breaks by either rejoining the broken DNA ends or by using another DNA molecule as a template for repair. However, my team and I discovered that RNA, a type of genetic material best known for its role in making proteins, surprisingly plays a key role in facilitating the repair of these harmful breaks.

These insights could not only pave the way for new treatment strategies for genetic disorders, cancer and neurodegenerative diseases, but also enhance gene-editing technologies.

Sealing a knowledge gap in DNA repair

I have spent the past two decades investigating the relationship between RNA and DNA in order to understand how cells maintain genome integrity and how these mechanisms could be harnessed for genetic engineering.

A long-standing question in the field has been whether RNA in cells helps keep the genome stable beyond acting as a copy of DNA in the process of making proteins and a regulator of gene expression. Studying how RNA might do this has been especially difficult due to its similarity to DNA and how fast it degrades. It’s also technically challenging to tell whether the RNA is directly working to repair DNA or indirectly regulating the process. Traditional models and tools for studying DNA repair have for the most part focused on proteins and DNA, leaving RNA’s potential contributions largely unexplored.

RNA plays a key role in protein synthesis.

My team and I were curious about whether RNA might actively participate in fixing double-strand breaks as a first line of defense. To explore this, we used the gene-editing tool CRISPR-Cas9 to make breaks at specific spots in the DNA of human and yeast cells. We then analyzed how RNA influences various aspects of the repair process, including efficiency and outcomes.

We found that RNA can actively guide the repair process of double-strand breaks. It does this by binding to broken DNA ends, helping align sequences of DNA on a matching strand that isn’t broken. It can also seal gaps or remove mismatched segments, further influencing whether and how the original sequence is restored.

Additionally, we found that RNA aids in double-strand break repair in both yeast and human cells, suggesting that its role in DNA repair is evolutionary conserved across species. Notably, even low levels of RNA were sufficient to influence the efficiency and outcome of repair, pointing to its broad and previously unrecognized function in maintaining genome stability.

RNA in control

By uncovering RNA’s previously unknown function to repair DNA damage, our findings show how RNA may directly contribute to the stability and evolution of the genome. It’s not merely a passive messenger, but an active participant in genome maintenance.

These insights could help researchers develop new ways to target the genomic instability that underlies many diseases, including cancer and neurodegeneration. Traditionally, treatments and gene-editing tools have focused almost exclusively on DNA or proteins. Our findings suggest that modifying RNA in different ways could also influence how cells respond to DNA damage. For example, researchers could design RNA-based therapies to enhance the repair of harmful breaks that could cause cancer, or selectively disrupt DNA break repair in cancer cells to help kill them.

In addition, these findings could improve the precision of gene-editing technologies like CRISPR by accounting for interactions between RNA and DNA at the site of the cut. This could reduce off-target effects and increase editing precision, ultimately contributing to the development of safer and more effective gene therapies.

There are still many unanswered questions about how RNA interacts with DNA in the repair process. The evolutionary role that RNA plays in maintaining genome stability is also unclear. But one thing is certain: RNA is no longer just a messenger, it is a molecule with a direct hand in DNA repair, rewriting what researchers know about how cells safeguard their genetic code.The Conversation

About the Author:

Francesca Storici, Professor of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

AI literacy: What it is, what it isn’t, who needs it and why it’s hard to define

By Daniel S. Schiff, Purdue University; Arne Bewersdorff, Technical University of Munich, and Marie Hornberger, Technical University of Munich 

It is “the policy of the United States to promote AI literacy and proficiency among Americans,” reads an executive order President Donald Trump issued on April 23, 2025. The executive order, titled Advancing Artificial Intelligence Education for American Youth, signals that advancing AI literacy is now an official national priority.

This raises a series of important questions: What exactly is AI literacy, who needs it, and how do you go about building it thoughtfully and responsibly?

The implications of AI literacy, or lack thereof, are far-reaching. They extend beyond national ambitions to remain “a global leader in this technological revolution” or even prepare an “AI-skilled workforce,” as the executive order states. Without basic literacy, citizens and consumers are not well equipped to understand the algorithmic platforms and decisions that affect so many domains of their lives: government services, privacy, lending, health care, news recommendations and more. And the lack of AI literacy risks ceding important aspects of society’s future to a handful of multinational companies.

How, then, can institutions help people understand and use – or resist – AI as individuals, workers, parents, innovators, job seekers, students, employers and citizens? We are a policy scientist and two educational researchers who study AI literacy, and we explore these issues in our research.

What AI literacy is and isn’t

At its foundation, AI literacy includes a mix of knowledge, skills and attitudes that are technical, social and ethical in nature. According to one prominent definition, AI literacy refers to “a set of competencies that enables individuals to critically evaluate AI technologies; communicate and collaborate effectively with AI; and use AI as a tool online, at home, and in the workplace.”

AI literacy is not simply programming or the mechanics of neural networks, and it is certainly not just prompt engineering – that is, the act of carefully writing prompts for chatbots. Vibe coding, or using AI to write software code, might be fun and important, but restricting the definition of literacy to the newest trend or the latest need of employers won’t cover the bases in the long term. And while a single master definition may not be needed, or even desirable, too much variation makes it tricky to decide on organizational, educational or policy strategies.

Who needs AI literacy? Everyone, including the employees and students using it, and the citizens grappling with its growing impacts. Every sector and sphere of society is now involved with AI, even if this isn’t always easy for people to see.

Exactly how much literacy everyone needs and how to get there is a much tougher question. Are a few quick HR training sessions enough, or do we need to embed AI across K-12 curricula and deliver university micro credentials and hands-on workshops? There is much that researchers don’t know, which leads to the need to measure AI literacy and the effectiveness of different training approaches.

Ethics is an important aspect of AI literacy.

Measuring AI literacy

While there is a growing and bipartisan consensus that AI literacy matters, there’s much less consensus on how to actually understand people’s AI literacy levels. Researchers have focused on different aspects, such as technical or ethical skills, or on different populations – for example, business managers and students – or even on subdomains like generative AI.

A recent review study identified more than a dozen questionnaires designed to measure AI literacy, the vast majority of which rely on self-reported responses to questions and statements such as “I feel confident about using AI.” There’s also a lack of testing to see whether these questionnaires work well for people from different cultural backgrounds.

Moreover, the rise of generative AI has exposed gaps and challenges: Is it possible to create a stable way to measure AI literacy when AI is itself so dynamic?

In our research collaboration, we’ve tried to help address some of these problems. In particular, we’ve focused on creating objective knowledge assessments, such as multiple-choice surveys tested with thorough statistical analyses to ensure that they accurately measure AI literacy. We’ve so far tested a multiple-choice survey in the U.S., U.K. and Germany and found that it works consistently and fairly across these three countries.

There’s a lot more work to do to create reliable and feasible testing approaches. But going forward, just asking people to self-report their AI literacy probably isn’t enough to understand where different groups of people are and what supports they need.

Approaches to building AI literacy

Governments, universities and industry are trying to advance AI literacy.

Finland launched the Elements of AI series in 2018 with the hope of educating its general public on AI. Estonia’s AI Leap initiative partners with Anthropic and OpenAI to provide access to AI tools for tens of thousands of students and thousands of teachers. And China is now requiring at least eight hours of AI education annually as early as elementary school, which goes a step beyond the new U.S. executive order. On the university level, Purdue University and the University of Pennsylvania have launched new master’s in AI programs, targeting future AI leaders.

Despite these efforts, these initiatives face an unclear and evolving understanding of AI literacy. They also face challenges to measuring effectiveness and minimal knowledge on what teaching approaches actually work. And there are long-standing issues with respect to equity − for example, reaching schools, communities, segments of the population and businesses that are stretched or under-resourced.

Next moves on AI literacy

Based on our research, experience as educators and collaboration with policymakers and technology companies, we think a few steps might be prudent.

Building AI literacy starts with recognizing it’s not just about tech: People also need to grasp the social and ethical sides of the technology. To see whether we’re getting there, we researchers and educators should use clear, reliable tests that track progress for different age groups and communities. Universities and companies can try out new teaching ideas first, then share what works through an independent hub. Educators, meanwhile, need proper training and resources, not just additional curricula, to bring AI into the classroom. And because opportunity isn’t spread evenly, partnerships that reach under-resourced schools and neighborhoods are essential so everyone can benefit.

Critically, achieving widespread AI literacy may be even harder than building digital and media literacy, so getting there will require serious investment – not cuts – to education and research.

There is widespread consensus that AI literacy is important, whether to boost AI trust and adoption or to empower citizens to challenge AI or shape its future. As with AI itself, we believe it’s important to approach AI literacy carefully, avoiding hype or an overly technical focus. The right approach can prepare students to become “active and responsible participants in the workforce of the future” and empower Americans to “thrive in an increasingly digital society,” as the AI literacy executive order calls for.

The Conversation will be hosting a free webinar on practical and safe use of AI with our tech editor and an AI expert on June 24 at 2pm ET/11am PT. Sign up to get your questions answered.The Conversation

About the Author:

Daniel S. Schiff, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Purdue University; Arne Bewersdorff, Post Doctoral Researcher in Educational Sciences, Technical University of Munich, and Marie Hornberger, Research Associate at the School of Social Sciences and Technology, Technical University of Munich

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

How was the wheel invented? Computer simulations reveal the unlikely birth of a world-changing technology nearly 6,000 years ago

By Kai James, Georgia Institute of Technology 

Imagine you’re a copper miner in southeastern Europe in the year 3900 B.C.E. Day after day you haul copper ore through the mine’s sweltering tunnels.

You’ve resigned yourself to the grueling monotony of mining life. Then one afternoon, you witness a fellow worker doing something remarkable.

With an odd-looking contraption, he casually transports the equivalent of three times his body weight on a single trip. As he returns to the mine to fetch another load, it suddenly dawns on you that your chosen profession is about to get far less taxing and much more lucrative.

What you don’t realize: You’re witnessing something that will change the course of history – not just for your tiny mining community, but for all of humanity.

AI-generated image of a wheeled cart inside a mine tunnel.
An illustration of what the original mine carts used in the Carpathian mountains may have looked like in 3900 B.C.E.
Kai James via DALL·E

Despite the wheel’s immeasurable impact, no one is certain as to who invented it, or when and where it was first conceived. The hypothetical scenario described above is based on a 2015 theory that miners in the Carpathian Mountains – in present-day Hungary – first invented the wheel nearly 6,000 years ago as a means to transport copper ore.

The theory is supported by the discovery of more than 150 miniaturized wagons by archaeologists working in the region. These pint-sized, four-wheeled models were made from clay, and their outer surfaces were engraved with a wickerwork pattern reminiscent of the basketry used by mining communities at the time. Carbon dating later revealed that these wagons are the earliest known depictions of wheeled transport to date.

This theory also raises a question of particular interest to me, an aerospace engineer who studies the science of engineering design. How did an obscure, scientifically naive mining society discover the wheel, when highly advanced civilizations, such as the ancient Egyptians, did not?

A controversial idea

It has long been assumed that wheels evolved from simple wooden rollers. But until recently no one could explain how or why this transformation took place. What’s more, beginning in the 1960s, some researchers started to express strong doubts about the roller-to-wheel theory.

After all, for rollers to be useful, they require flat, firm terrain and a path free of inclines and sharp curves. Furthermore, once the cart passes them, used rollers need to be continually brought around to the front of the line to keep the cargo moving. For all these reasons, the ancient world used rollers sparingly. According to the skeptics, rollers were too rare and too impractical to have been the starting point for the evolution of the wheel.

But a mine – with its enclosed, human-made passageways – would have provided favorable conditions for rollers. This factor, among others, compelled my team to revisit the roller hypothesis.

Flow chart showing the key stages of the evolution from rollers to wheels.
Key stages in the evolution of the first wheels, beginning from simple rollers and eventually arriving at a wheel-and-axle structure in which a slender axle is connected to large solid discs, or wheels, on both ends.
Kai James

A turning point

The transition from rollers to wheels requires two key innovations. The first is a modification of the cart that carries the cargo. The cart’s base must be outfitted with semicircular sockets, which hold the rollers in place. This way, as the operator pulls the cart, the rollers are pulled along with it.

This innovation may have been motivated by the confined nature of the mine environment, where having to periodically carry used rollers back around to the front of the cart would have been especially onerous.

The discovery of socketed rollers represented a turning point in the evolution of the wheel and paved the way for the second and most important innovation. This next step involved a change to the rollers themselves. To understand how and why this change occurred, we turned to physics and computer-aided engineering.

Simulating the wheel’s evolution

To begin our investigation, we created a computer program designed to simulate the evolution from a roller to a wheel. Our hypothesis was that this transformation was driven by a phenomenon called “mechanical advantage.” This same principle allows pliers to amplify a user’s grip strength by providing added leverage. Similarly, if we could modify the shape of the roller to generate mechanical advantage, this would amplify the user’s pushing force, making it easier to advance the cart.

Our algorithm worked by modeling hundreds of potential roller shapes and evaluating how each one performed, both in terms of mechanical advantage and structural strength. The latter was used to determine whether a given roller would break under the weight of the cargo. As predicted, the algorithm ultimately converged upon the familiar wheel-and-axle shape, which it determined to be optimal.

This diagram shows twelve illustrations, progressing from images of rollers to a wheel-and-axle structure.
A computer simulation of the evolution from a roller to a wheel-and-axle structure. Each image represents a design evaluated by the algorithm. The search ultimately converges upon the familiar wheel-and-axle design.
Kai James

During the execution of the algorithm, each new design performed slightly better than its predecessor. We believe a similar evolutionary process played out with the miners 6,000 years ago.

It is unclear what initially prompted the miners to explore alternative roller shapes. One possibility is that friction at the roller-socket interface caused the surrounding wood to wear away, leading to a slight narrowing of the roller at the point of contact. Another theory is that the miners began thinning out the rollers so that their carts could pass over small obstructions on the ground.

Either way, thanks to mechanical advantage, this narrowing of the axle region made the carts easier to push. As time passed, better-performing designs were repeatedly favored over the others, and new rollers were crafted to mimic these top performers.

Consequently, the rollers became more and more narrow, until all that remained was a slender bar capped on both ends by large discs. This rudimentary structure marks the birth of what we now refer to as “the wheel.”

According to our theory, there was no precise moment at which the wheel was invented. Rather, just like the evolution of species, the wheel emerged gradually from an accumulation of small improvements.

This is just one of the many chapters in the wheel’s long and ongoing evolution. More than 5,000 years after the contributions of the Carpathian miners, a Parisian bicycle mechanic invented radial ball bearings, which once again revolutionized wheeled transportation.

Ironically, ball bearings are conceptually identical to rollers, the wheel’s evolutionary precursor. Ball bearings form a ring around the axle, creating a rolling interface between the axle and the wheel hub, thereby circumventing friction. With this innovation, the evolution of the wheel came full circle.

This example also shows how the wheel’s evolution, much like its iconic shape, traces a circuitous path – one with no clear beginning, no end, and countless quiet revolutions along the way.The Conversation

About the Author:

Kai James, Professor of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Will AI take your job? The answer could hinge on the 4 S’s of the technology’s advantages over humans

By Bruce Schneier, Harvard Kennedy School and Nathan Sanders, Harvard University 

If you’ve worried that AI might take your job, deprive you of your livelihood, or maybe even replace your role in society, it probably feels good to see the latest AI tools fail spectacularly. If AI recommends glue as a pizza topping, then you’re safe for another day.

But the fact remains that AI already has definite advantages over even the most skilled humans, and knowing where these advantages arise — and where they don’t — will be key to adapting to the AI-infused workforce.

AI will often not be as effective as a human doing the same job. It won’t always know more or be more accurate. And it definitely won’t always be fairer or more reliable. But it may still be used whenever it has an advantage over humans in one of four dimensions: speed, scale, scope and sophistication. Understanding these dimensions is the key to understanding AI-human replacement.

Speed

First, speed. There are tasks that humans are perfectly good at but are not nearly as fast as AI. One example is restoring or upscaling images: taking pixelated, noisy or blurry images and making a crisper and higher-resolution version. Humans are good at this; given the right digital tools and enough time, they can fill in fine details. But they are too slow to efficiently process large images or videos.

AI models can do the job blazingly fast, a capability with important industrial applications. AI-based software is used to enhance satellite and remote sensing data, to compress video files, to make video games run better with cheaper hardware and less energy, to help robots make the right movements, and to model turbulence to help build better internal combustion engines.

Real-time performance matters in these cases, and the speed of AI is necessary to enable them.

Scale

The second dimension of AI’s advantage over humans is scale. AI will increasingly be used in tasks that humans can do well in one place at a time, but that AI can do in millions of places simultaneously. A familiar example is ad targeting and personalization. Human marketers can collect data and predict what types of people will respond to certain advertisements. This capability is important commercially; advertising is a trillion-dollar market globally.

AI models can do this for every single product, TV show, website and internet user. This is how the modern ad-tech industry works. Real-time bidding markets price the display ads that appear alongside the websites you visit, and advertisers use AI models to decide when they want to pay that price – thousands of times per second.

Scope

Next, scope. AI can be advantageous when it does more things than any one person could, even when a human might do better at any one of those tasks. Generative AI systems such as ChatGPT can engage in conversation on any topic, write an essay espousing any position, create poetry in any style and language, write computer code in any programming language, and more. These models may not be superior to skilled humans at any one of these things, but no single human could outperform top-tier generative models across them all.

It’s the combination of these competencies that generates value. Employers often struggle to find people with talents in disciplines such as software development and data science who also have strong prior knowledge of the employer’s domain. Organizations are likely to continue to rely on human specialists to write the best code and the best persuasive text, but they will increasingly be satisfied with AI when they just need a passable version of either.

How AI is affecting the job market.

Sophistication

Finally, sophistication. AIs can consider more factors in their decisions than humans can, and this can endow them with superhuman performance on specialized tasks. Computers have long been used to keep track of a multiplicity of factors that compound and interact in ways more complex than a human could trace. The 1990s chess-playing computer systems such as Deep Blue succeeded by thinking a dozen or more moves ahead.

Modern AI systems use a radically different approach: Deep learning systems built from many-layered neural networks take account of complex interactions – often many billions – among many factors. Neural networks now power the best chess-playing models and most other AI systems.

Chess is not the only domain where eschewing conventional rules and formal logic in favor of highly sophisticated and inscrutable systems has generated progress. The stunning advance of AlphaFold2, the AI model of structural biology whose creators Demis Hassabis and John Jumper were recognized with the Nobel Prize in chemistry in 2024, is another example.

This breakthrough replaced traditional physics-based systems for predicting how sequences of amino acids would fold into three-dimensional shapes with a 93 million-parameter model, even though it doesn’t account for physical laws. That lack of real-world grounding is not desirable: No one likes the enigmatic nature of these AI systems, and scientists are eager to understand better how they work.

But the sophistication of AI is providing value to scientists, and its use across scientific fields has grown exponentially in recent years.

Context matters

Those are the four dimensions where AI can excel over humans. Accuracy still matters. You wouldn’t want to use an AI that makes graphics look glitchy or targets ads randomly – yet accuracy isn’t the differentiator. The AI doesn’t need superhuman accuracy. It’s enough for AI to be merely good and fast, or adequate and scalable. Increasing scope often comes with an accuracy penalty, because AI can generalize poorly to truly novel tasks. The 4 S’s are sometimes at odds. With a given amount of computing power, you generally have to trade off scale for sophistication.

Even more interestingly, when an AI takes over a human task, the task can change. Sometimes the AI is just doing things differently. Other times, AI starts doing different things. These changes bring new opportunities and new risks.

For example, high-frequency trading isn’t just computers trading stocks faster; it’s a fundamentally different kind of trading that enables entirely new strategies, tactics and associated risks. Likewise, AI has developed more sophisticated strategies for the games of chess and Go. And the scale of AI chatbots has changed the nature of propaganda by allowing artificial voices to overwhelm human speech.

It is this “phase shift,” when changes in degree may transform into changes in kind, where AI’s impacts to society are likely to be most keenly felt. All of this points to the places that AI can have a positive impact. When a system has a bottleneck related to speed, scale, scope or sophistication, or when one of these factors poses a real barrier to being able to accomplish a goal, it makes sense to think about how AI could help.

Equally, when speed, scale, scope and sophistication are not primary barriers, it makes less sense to use AI. This is why AI auto-suggest features for short communications such as text messages can feel so annoying. They offer little speed advantage and no benefit from sophistication, while sacrificing the sincerity of human communication.

Many deployments of customer service chatbots also fail this test, which may explain their unpopularity. Companies invest in them because of their scalability, and yet the bots often become a barrier to support rather than a speedy or sophisticated problem solver.

Where the advantage lies

Keep this in mind when you encounter a new application for AI or consider AI as a replacement for or an augmentation to a human process. Looking for bottlenecks in speed, scale, scope and sophistication provides a framework for understanding where AI provides value, and equally where the unique capabilities of the human species give us an enduring advantage.The Conversation

About the Author:

Bruce Schneier, Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School and Nathan Sanders, Affiliate, Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society, Harvard University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Gold hits record highs as risk aversion dominates the market

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The price of gold surged to a new record on Monday, reaching 3,446 USD per troy ounce, approaching the peaks seen in April. The rise reflects intensified demand for safe-haven assets as investors react to heightened geopolitical tensions and a broadly weaker US dollar.

Geopolitical fears and monetary policy in focus

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, prompting fears of a broader geopolitical fallout in the region. This environment is driving capital into defensive assets, such as gold, as risk appetite continues to wane.

Meanwhile, markets are shifting their attention to this week’s US Federal Reserve meeting, which begins on Tuesday and concludes on Wednesday evening. While the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady, investors will closely watch for any forward guidance on rate cuts, especially following the release of weaker-than-expected US inflation data, which has reinforced speculation of a policy easing as early as September.

Additionally, market participants are awaiting details on President Donald Trump’s next wave of tariffs, which the White House is reportedly preparing to implement in the coming weeks. These trade measures are key in evaluating the broader economic outlook.

The US dollar remains under pressure, which continues to support the bullish momentum in gold.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has completed the fifth wave of growth, reaching a peak at 3,450 USD. A new decline towards 3,400 USD is now expected. If this support is breached, the trend may extend further down to 3,350 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line above zero, exiting the histogram zone and suggesting a potential reversal towards new lows.

On the H1 chart, the pair is building a downward wave structure targeting 3,400 USD. The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the consolidation range at the top of the wave. After reaching 3,400 USD, a correction towards 3,424 USD is anticipated, likely followed by the development of a new downward wave towards 3,375 USD, considered the next local target. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line below 50 and heading towards 20, indicating growing bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains strongly supported by geopolitical instability, a weak dollar, and dovish monetary policy expectations. While the asset is trading near record highs, technical indicators suggest a potential short-term pullback towards 3,400 USD and possibly deeper to 3,375-3,350 USD. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact as long as risk-off sentiment prevails and macro uncertainty lingers.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Open Interest Levels show where open contracts are in the markets.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (16,419 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (15,303 contracts), the EuroFX (10,261 contracts), the Brazilian Real (8,508 contracts), the Swiss Franc (4,798 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,439 contracts), the US Dollar Index (785 contracts) and also Bitcoin (303 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,789 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-6,554 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-1,723 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

Currency Data Highlights this week include the Euro and the British pound sterling seeing stronger speculator positioning that has pushed the overall net positions to multi-month highs.

Euro FX Positions rise to 40-week high
– Euro positions rose by over 10,000 contracts this week, marking the fourth increase in the last six weeks.
– Speculators’ Euro positions have risen for 13 out of the last 17 weeks, totaling a change of +157,450 contracts over that time-frame.
– The Euro positions have increased from negative contracts in mid-February to over 93,000 contracts this week, the highest level for Euro speculators since September 3, 2024, when the net position was over 100,000 contracts.

British Pound Sterling
– British Pound Sterling contracts jumped by over 16,000 positions this week.
– Speculator bets on the Pound Sterling have risen in 5 out of the last 8 weeks, totaling over +45,000 contracts in that period.
– The Pound Sterling speculator position is currently at its highest level since November with the current standing above the 50,000 contract level.

Canadian Dollar
– Canadian Dollar speculator bets increased by over 15,000 contracts this week.
– The overall standing for the Canadian Dollar, however, remains bearish at -93,140 contracts level.

Japanese Yen
– The Japanese Yen contracts fell by over 6,000 contracts this week as yen speculator bets have been cooling off.
– The Yen position has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks after reaching an all-time high in April above +179,000 contracts.

Swiss Franc
– Swiss Franc contracts rose by almost 5,000 contracts this week.
– Over the last 10 weeks, Swiss Franc positions have improved in 7 out of the last 10 weeks, reducing the overall bearish level by almost half (from approximately -42,000 to -21,000 contracts).

U.S. Dollar Index
– The U.S. Dollar index positions slightly improved this week and have now risen for five straight weeks (following declines in 8 out of previous 11 weeks)
– The current standing is currently still a small, bullish position of just +1,402 net contracts.

Market Price Changes this week:

Currency markets saw the euro and Swiss franc both rise by over 1%. The Mexican peso, Bitcoin, and the Canadian dollar each gained nearly 1%. The Brazilian real, Japanese yen, and British pound all increased by around 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar index, however, was the week’s biggest loser, dropping nearly 1%.


Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (90 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (64 percent), Mexican Peso (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Bitcoin (7 percent) and the US Dollar Index (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (9.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.0 percent)
EuroFX (64.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (60.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (90.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (92.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (57.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (26.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.5 percent)
Bitcoin (7.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.9 percent)


British Pound & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (13 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (6 percent), the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and the Mexican Peso (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-17 percent), the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-7.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-23.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-15.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-32.9 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.524.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.024.112.1
– Net Position:1,402-35-1,367
– Gross Longs:17,0277,3442,345
– Gross Shorts:15,6257,3793,712
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.693.911.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.8-3.2-3.6

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 93,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.855.412.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.374.15.5
– Net Position:93,025-151,25658,231
– Gross Longs:208,754449,157102,489
– Gross Shorts:115,729600,41344,258
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.229.7100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-6.75.5

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.928.416.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.856.712.7
– Net Position:51,634-60,5628,928
– Gross Longs:111,07660,66536,199
– Gross Shorts:59,442121,22727,271
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.938.881.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.2-12.86.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 144,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.434.013.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.277.67.6
– Net Position:144,595-169,07724,482
– Gross Longs:184,195132,04454,124
– Gross Shorts:39,600301,12129,642
– Long to Short Ratio:4.7 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.58.3100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.58.34.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.662.519.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.139.717.7
– Net Position:-21,26819,8421,426
– Gross Longs:9,24054,33116,806
– Gross Shorts:30,50834,48915,380
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.831.984.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.2-8.810.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.877.49.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.145.88.9
– Net Position:-93,14391,2071,936
– Gross Longs:19,651223,28527,489
– Gross Shorts:112,794132,07825,553
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.252.349.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.66.728.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.768.511.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.940.09.2
– Net Position:-69,94463,7706,174
– Gross Longs:23,997153,54126,785
– Gross Shorts:93,94189,77120,611
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.768.065.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.28.913.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.873.95.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.747.65.2
– Net Position:-21,23520,783452
– Gross Longs:9,31258,2944,562
– Gross Shorts:30,54737,5114,110
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.957.559.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.3-0.62.9

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.831.83.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.168.31.8
– Net Position:62,726-65,9103,184
– Gross Longs:99,01757,4396,351
– Gross Shorts:36,291123,3493,167
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.740.340.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-2.36.8

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.529.94.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.275.01.0
– Net Position:39,301-42,8723,571
– Gross Longs:61,32128,4344,511
– Gross Shorts:22,02071,306940
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.4 to 14.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.422.241.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.622.27.5

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.97.35.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:88.51.54.2
– Net Position:-2,0091,741268
– Gross Longs:24,7812,1981,529
– Gross Shorts:26,7904571,261
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 14.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.595.451.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.018.4-2.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Brent Oil, Silver and 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 10th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)



Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 40 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 13,216 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,936 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 


Silver

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Silver speculator position comes in tied with Brent at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is also at a 100 percent or maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 21 points this week. The speculator position registered 66,650 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 5,880 contracts in speculator bets.


Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level resides at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 18 points this week. The overall speculator position was -203,747 net contracts this week with a jump of 24,696 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Live Cattle

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12 points this week.

The speculator position was 115,175 net contracts this week with a jump of 11,892 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Japanese Yen


The Japanese yen speculator position rounds out the top five in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese yen speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -10 points this week. The overall speculator position was 144,595 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,554 contracts in the speculator bets.



This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

Extreme Bearish Leader
The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,470,920 net contracts this week with a drop by -74,384 contracts in the speculator bets.


Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -40 points this week. The speculator position was -369,282 net contracts this week with a small gain of 2,306 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Extreme Bearish Leader
The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29 points this week. The overall speculator position was -1,132,456 net contracts this week with a reduction by -202,389 contracts in the speculator bets.


Sugar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19 points this week. The speculator position was -19,515 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -15,671 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Bitcoin

Extreme Bearish Leader
Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17 points this week. The speculator position was -2,009 net contracts this week with an increase of 303 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Platinum, Palladium, Silver Making Big Turns Versus Gold

Source: Barry Dawes (6/13/25) 

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities shares his thoughts on the precious metal markets and their stocks and has a warning.

  • Gold seems to be peaking for now
  • 96% bullishness is a warning sign
  • Other commodities ready to move higher
  • CRB Index moving higher again
  • White precious metals heading higher: silver, platinum, palladium

Watch nickel very closely. Copper is set to move higher

Best plays for PGMs: CHN, ZIM

For Silver: LGM

For Nickel: CHN, WMG

GOLD

This still might be resolved to the upside but it is making heavy weather of it this week.

Bullishness for Nth American gold stocks is 96% and neither Newmont nor Barrick look strong.

Short term uptrend broken

Close to testing longer term parabola

GOLD STOCKS

No follow through after new high spike.

Everyone is bullish!

No one left to buy.

No follow through after new high spike

Needs a correction after a big 6 month move higher

SILVER

Hot money from gold has headed here to silver.

That 100:1 gold:silver ratio was too high.  Silver at just 1% of the gold price.

PLATINUM

EVs batteries and ICE catalysts are still fighting it out but Platinum is running a multiyear deficit and prices will have to rise further.

Platinum was grossly oversold vs gold.

A big catch up to come.

PALLADIUM

Palladium is also running a multiyear deficit so current prices are quite unsustainable.

Palladium had that `irregular ‘ B wave new high before declining in 5 waves down to complet Wave 2.

Wave 3 to new highs should follow.

Zimplats (ZIM.ASX) is a strong turnaround as PGM prices turn up.

Chalice (CHN.ASX) will be the principal beneficiary of rising palladium prices.

Watch also for nickel prices.

NICKEL

Indonesian nickel production from saprolite/laterite sources has also is share of unprofitable operations at current nickel prices so closures are likely.

It seems Indonesia has the ESG bug at present so environmental regulations on tailings and on new mining areas are likely to interrupt growth plans.

So much of Western nickel sulphide mine production has closed so if demand keeps rising for stainless steel (~67% of nickel usage) the that surplus in 2025 should turn to deficit in 2026.

A break of this downtrend seems imminent.

Something has to happen here.

Nickel vs gold.

WMG

A higher nickel price will help CHN but also WMG.

CHN’s new metallurgical flowsheet is showing 50 -56% recovery for its 0.24-0.27% Ni ores in Years 1-4 and 30-45% for 0.15-0.17% Ni in later years.

Mulga Tank will be a far cleaner nickel-only ore feed at 0.27% ( and probably much higher in early years starter pits) so perhaps met work might be able to achieve >50% nickel recovery which would have a  major benefit to project profitability.

WMG also has an active drilling program ahead in the September quarter.

WMG 2021-2025 weekly

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Barry Dawes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All of the stocks listed in this article, including Zimplats, Chalice Mining, and Western Mines Group. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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